Mini 930:Morning People Mafia (Game Over!)


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Post Post #259 (isolation #0) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 7:24 am

Post by SpyreX »

You ever have someone call up and say "Ohh hey there is going to be a party here!" and then you get all psyched up and ready to go and then you get there with your beer hat on and your foam glove and open the door to a bunch of 50 year old dudes that are in their suits talking about the economic state of Kerplapalstan eating caviar and you just have to go..... awwwkkkward?

Yea, that's this game.

What in the hell are you guys doing? Multiple wagons pushed up power quick that dissolve based on ??? with no claims only to be replaced by a faster wagon that jumps up?

Yee-haw.

rhzang strikes me as fairly genuine in his madness.
That was a terrible "gambit" by fa almost enough to vote.
Smashbro is itchy, real itchy.

However, Nobody Special is my winner.

The FoS throwdown on rzhang / fallen angel saying he'd throw the vote if he wasn't getting replaced... then voting him later?

Not knowing what he thinks about SSSS?

The list of suspicions in total being two of the largest wagons and gambiteer who was getting flak?

Yea.

Vote: Nobody Special
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Post Post #264 (isolation #1) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 10:21 am

Post by SpyreX »

No seriously I want an explanation to these wagons that grow and dissolve based on some factor I am just not seeing because MY LORD.

Someone want to do a votecount analysis for me? I may be able to squeeze out a scumbolina or two gangsta style.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #2) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 11:20 am

Post by SpyreX »

The one that gets me with Smash is the unvote from Deer but the THIS IS
SPARTA
L-1 business.

I agree with your conclusion though.
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Post Post #270 (isolation #3) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 1:26 pm

Post by SpyreX »

?

Chau is a badass.
Chau is only slightly town.

There are "secret ties between players"

There is only one "very scummy player"

We have to wait until tomorrow for a vote...ohh the suspense.

This is gonna be goooood
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Post Post #273 (isolation #4) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 3:03 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Ohh lets start this dance because I'll light a fire under your feet SO FAST the world won't even know what happened.

Without 1.) explaining your reads 2.) clarifying "odd ties" which to those not in the know are in fact SECRETS and two posts where you've given A SINGLE CANDIDATE NOW THAT WOULD MAKE SENSE FOR YOUR VOTE that post is white noise at best.

But, yea. Its me.

I'm twisting the words.

ALAS I AM UNDONE
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Post Post #278 (isolation #5) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 8:02 pm

Post by SpyreX »

...

Well, that there is a good post. I approve of that. Why didn't you just START with that sheesh.

After I see the VC to make sure there's no shenanegi I can get behind that.

I lean deer for a partner a bit more.
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Post Post #299 (isolation #6) » Wed Mar 10, 2010 7:02 am

Post by SpyreX »

Vote: SSSS


There, that should fix that up.

Its a claimin time.
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Post Post #304 (isolation #7) » Wed Mar 10, 2010 10:53 am

Post by SpyreX »

....

That post feels right. I don't like that.
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Post Post #307 (isolation #8) » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:20 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Because that post feeling right isn't enough push for me to think this is a bad lynch, as of now.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #9) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 12:31 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Check the sig.

Yes, chances are high that wagon was a scum-split. So, use that for the first parse in the analysis.
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Post Post #328 (isolation #10) » Tue Mar 16, 2010 12:44 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I'm real skeptical of dragon putting THAT much effort into a single mislynch as scum.

NS and Deer wouldn't bother me at this point. I need to be home though before I can get totally back into the groove.
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Post Post #339 (isolation #11) » Fri Mar 19, 2010 12:20 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Someone do a little post-count check. Considering the way yeesterday went down we're looking at at least one lurker scum (double points if they're on the wagon).
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Post Post #345 (isolation #12) » Sun Mar 21, 2010 6:18 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Vote: Nobody Special


342 is one of the single most bizarre posts I've ever seen.
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Post Post #346 (isolation #13) » Sun Mar 21, 2010 6:25 pm

Post by SpyreX »

And just to be clear, this isn't one of those "ohh hey" kind of bizarres but "wow, I've never seen such open ended and hedging paragraphs that does very little but sure makes it look like, maybe, just maybe, they're trying to find scum but aren't really because in actuality they are the scum"
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Post Post #350 (isolation #14) » Mon Mar 22, 2010 6:53 am

Post by SpyreX »

Chau illustrates the true problem:

NS, Deer, TeWicah.

If there isn't at least A scum in that set we are going to lose. Period.

Personally, with the way things are going though I'm betting on not just one, but TWO in that grouping.

The only question is which one is town.

If Deer is avoiding this game (give a bit of proof) he goes first.
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Post Post #353 (isolation #15) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:58 am

Post by SpyreX »

It may be time for a round of mass prods up in here.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #16) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 9:29 am

Post by SpyreX »

NS:

Give a line or two on every player in this game.
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Post Post #362 (isolation #17) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 2:22 pm

Post by SpyreX »

1)SpyreX(replaces water_foul) Has a great sense of humour coupled with a shoddy work ethic. Has asked at least twice for 'someone else' to do votecount analysis. Can you not do it yourself? If not, why not?
Woosh.

Yea, my work ethic is pretty bad. It wasn't that I was on vacation or anything like that.

Its also not telling, in and of itself, that most everyone shrugged it off - except for chau.
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Post Post #364 (isolation #18) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 2:27 pm

Post by SpyreX »

It's not even that. Its the total apathy.

Like I said, if all three of Deer, NS and TeWicah were by some kind of voodoo town this is a wash.
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Post Post #371 (isolation #19) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:54 pm

Post by SpyreX »

fly wrote:You say you bet there are two scum in those three, and that Deer should go first. Should you then have switched your vote from NS to Deer? Can I take this to mean you think TW is town? What do you think of TW? Is there enough for you to have a read on him?
You're making a leap. The important part of what I said was if he was avoiding this game. Which, based on the fact he's dropped isn't the case.

Of course, irritatingly enough, it looks like TW is pulling that stunt too so I don't know what the hell at the moment.
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Post Post #379 (isolation #20) » Wed Mar 24, 2010 8:45 am

Post by SpyreX »

CHAU WE HATH BEEN OUTED. ALAS.
I call pure BS on this. I know for a fact that Deer was online AFTER he was prodded. Meaning even if he chose not to pick up the pm, he definitely saw it there. Unfortunately I can't label that as scum or town play since replacing out is null. But it does piss me off. This ongoing replacing out when under pressure trend is mad frustrating. Seriously people. If you are town, then I grr in your direction.
He -could- have been avoiding it but its not avoiding it to avoid pressure if he gets replaced is what I was saying.
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Post Post #382 (isolation #21) » Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:05 am

Post by SpyreX »

Ohh Red I love and hate you.

I agree 100% about chau being the bastion of light in this setup. I even agree with Sucrose feelin' town.

However, I'm still positive one scum lies in the mix of now Nik, NS, Red.

And, if its going to be Sins of the Father the case you better be clear that's what you're doing. WF had lost his mind but, alas, not scum.

Additionally, if we're talking about a 3:9 setup (which I assume we are) you better be clear that you're assuming the split was 2:1 on the SSSS wagon because otherwise you've approached it backwards.
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Post Post #386 (isolation #22) » Wed Mar 24, 2010 8:23 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I'm absolutely clear, and I'm absolutely confident.
wf is totally scum, and there's no two ways around it.

You really don't have any leverage either, because SSSS, as acceptable a lynch he was, flipped town. I think everyone in the game will agree there was scum on that wagon, and I'm doing my best to analyze that wagon. The best direction the town could go is to lynch you, and the second best is to lynch jbern.
I respect that, but, especially on D1, I'm resistant toward the kind of absolute rhetoric that you used. When people say "I guarantee player A will flip town/scum", it makes me wonder how they can be so sure.
Hmmmm
You're going to have to expand on this if you want me to comment on it, because I'm not sure what you mean. It's probably more likely there were two scum on SSSS' wagon, but just one would be reasonable as well.
Commit to the stance. If you're parsing out the wagon and are saying two scum were off of it looking for scum ON the wagon is a mathematically bad move.

Actually, you're really making me paranoid in general with this:
You really don't have any leverage either, because SSSS, as acceptable a lynch he was, flipped town. I think everyone in the game will agree there was scum on that wagon, and I'm doing my best to analyze that wagon. The best direction the town could go is to lynch you, and the second best is to lynch jbern.
If it was a "good lynch" then the condemnation makes far more sense on those avoiding the mislynch.

If it was a wagon covered in scum then parsing out the how and why shouldn't be that hard.

Actually, are you ready for this:

Unvote, Vote: RedCoyote


The doublespeak about this is a bit too heavy. And yea, I'm going to get the OMGUS business all up ins. So, I'll up the ante: if I get lynched today and flip town, Red eats a power hammer tomorrow.

So, how's that confidence now? You know, the same confidence you're attacking jb for.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #23) » Thu Mar 25, 2010 8:25 am

Post by SpyreX »

Red wrote:I'm clearly attacking you for wf's play. I'm confident wf is scum. I'm not certain he is. This is the same issue I had with chau. If you're going to try to pick on me over semantics, then I'll start picking on you over the same stuff.

In other words, I won't eat my sock if you flip town.
The idea of "I'll eat my hat" if this happens is an expression of confidence. One that, of course, I see used all the time right or wrong. If anything, vehemence in that day 1 wagon strikes me as townish versus scummy.

This isn't a function of semantics. This is a function of dissonance.

And, we're running into the classic part of the Sins of the Father. If you're confident wf is scum you have to be confident I am as well. However, when I'm attacked on the basis of my predecessor I'm put in that awesome position of being unable to elucidate or defend behavior
I have not committed.

Red wrote: Sure. It's slightly more likely there are two scum on the SSSS wagon than one. I thought I made that clear. I would say there is certainly at least one though. If you're coming after me over this, are you saying you're convinced there are definitely two?
I'm not sure -where- the split lies yet. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a 1:1:1 split. I'm "coming after you" because of this line:
I'm looking at two things, the final vote wagons and the previous day's discussions. As Spyrex brought up, the mafia was likely split, but we'd probably have more success concentrating on the lynch wagon, SSSS,
because it had the most voters and SSSS was town.
Having the most voters is backwards unless you think there is a 2 split. Otherwise, with the other business going on, this seems like justification-after-the-fact for having a basis to vote me.
Regardless whether it was a good lynch or not, the town flip supercedes that. Don't you agree? It's more reasonable that every scum was on the SSSS wagon than not, even though they're both unlikely scenarios.
A town flip makes it a poorer lynch, yes. However, I wasn't the one saying it was a good lynch (justifying your replacements position on it) and then attacking the lynch itself as scum driven.

Again, if there are two scum in this parsing out the reasons isn't that difficult of an undertaking.
I'm still incredibly confident in my analysis. I don't think your vote helps or hurts you, as it's in a place you said it would be before I came in the game. But are you really saying your willing to put yourself on the chopping block over my alignment? I don't think I can go that far. Like we were saying earlier, I'd go so far as to say there has to be one or two scum between you, Nikanor, and NS, but that's it.
I am confident enough that this is doublespeak to call you on it. Sometimes that means rolling the hard six, which is exactly what I'm doing here.
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Post Post #401 (isolation #24) » Thu Mar 25, 2010 9:33 pm

Post by SpyreX »

red wrote:I'm not taking it literally of course, but how sure can you be on D1, with no flips, no lynches, no investigations, and no role claims? There's a difference between now and yesterday.
Rock hard sure. Sometimes wrong, but rock hard sure. Hell, committal versus not is always a plus.
red wrote:I'm going to expand on this later in this post, but, as I've already told you, SSSS' wagon is what sets you apart. You couple the SSSS vote with wf's play, and you have a recipe for potential (notice I put the word potential in here, chau, so now you can rest easy) scum.

The same goes for jbern.
This really is what seals the deal with my issues though.

SSSS's wagon you've said was a "good one" - which, yea, I agree with. So, there's not a position to argue from there.
WF is sins of the father. So, again, there's no position for argument.

So, ultimately, you've setup a "case" that I can't attack. Because, the one avenue of attack you've on one hand said was "good" and on the other I'm scum for. And the other half is something that is impossible to parse.

Ready for this? WF played a scummy game. I would have lynched him. Yep.

I would have been wrong.
red wrote: The more I think about this, the more I understand where you are coming from. Do you think it's more advantageous to lynch from Te, NS, and peanut then? I think I can mull that over at the very least, because there is a logic to that. Still, if you want to break it down to the raw numbers, a 2/5 chance is better than a 1/3 chance.

I think a 2 split is more likely than a 1:1:1 split or a split with just one scum on SSSS.
If you think its 2/5 then it is absolutely a better call. I'm not at that point yet. 1 for sure, 2 is iffy (see today).
red wrote:Well, whether or not it was scum driven is yet to be seen. I don't know if the most active proponents of the SSSS lynch (namely jbern, Sucrose, and chau), are more or less likely to be scum than those that "went along for the ride" (namely you and Dragonfly).

Maybe we just have a politcal disagreement, but I tend to think you're just trying to throw dirt on the prospect of using the SSSS wagon as the tool that it is.

Let's lay our cards on the table, how many gambling idioms do we know of? the reason you picked NS, Deer, and Te is purely based on lurking, is it not? Do you honestly think that is a more acceptable paradigm to lynch on?
Its not "lurking", although that is a function.

It is nothing. Pure nothing. That is ultimately the amount of actual useful information that is there.

I guarantee. Guarantee
a town loss if those three are town.

Now, I doubt they are, but.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #25) » Sat Mar 27, 2010 8:56 pm

Post by SpyreX »

NS wrote:I think so -- I'm going to have to re-read peanut if he isn't lynched today.
Woooosh. This does not spark those warm and fuzzy feelings.
Red wrote:It's not my problem you were on the SSSS lynch, and it's not my problem that SSSS flipped town.

Even if all you said is true, that you can't defend yourself, the game is bigger than that. You're in stuck in neutral at the moment. I don't really see any forward progress coming from you, but I also don't think you're the most guilty of this.
Its not really my "problem" either. Like I said, you push this through like this, take the bullet tomorrow. There'll be plenty of people around who will see it.

However, just so we're clear:
smashbro_of_the_SSS(6): Sucrose, chauchaudotcom, jbernier93, Dragonfly13, SpyreX,
Deer
Red wrote:Even though SSSS flipped town, SSSS really wasn't that bad of a lynch. I didn't care for his play much at all, but I didn't bother to really mark it down on account of him already having flipped.
And odd parallell, isn't it? For, if it is "my problem" because its such a bad thing well... you were there too. Ohh, but that wasn't you right? Yet, we see how you've approached me. Interesting conundrum. :P

I'm not spinning full engines but I'm sure as hell not in neutral. The nothing players contain scum (that, as we will see below, is the bold statement not the other).
Red wrote:That's a bold prediction. It's bolder to err toward two scum off SSSS than two scum on it, you know.
Why? With time as a factor and SSSS being "a good wagon" if I were scum (OHH SNAP) I'd stay off it. Doubly so because conventional attitudes would be there were two scum on the wagon.

Hmmm.
Red wrote:That hurts. And here I am going full force for you guys.
Sins of the Father is a bitch, isn't it.

Although, to be fair, Deer was nothing.

You've got a whole different set of issues. :)
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Post Post #428 (isolation #26) » Sun Mar 28, 2010 9:52 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Sucrose has some 'splainin to do.

---
RedCoyote wrote:I'm comfortable with Deer's vote; I'm not comfortable with yours.
Ohh lets start this dance because I'll light a fire under your feet SO FAST the world won't even know what happened.

Without 1.) explaining your reads 2.) clarifying "odd ties" which to those not in the know are in fact SECRETS and two posts where you've given A SINGLE CANDIDATE NOW THAT WOULD MAKE SENSE FOR YOUR VOTE that post is white noise at best.

But, yea. Its me.

I'm twisting the words.

ALAS I AM UNDONE
Dragonfly's good post goes here.
...

Well, that there is a good post. I approve of that. Why didn't you just START with that sheesh.

After I see the VC to make sure there's no shenanegi I can get behind that.

I lean deer for a partner a bit more.
Deer wrote:Okay, I'm going to do this. Dragonfly has swayed me away from thinking rzhang's spot is scum, and like I said before, SSSS looks to be the next most likely scum.

unvote, vote: SSSS
Yessir, I can see the umbrage. And, I know where this is going: "Ahh, but I am Deer and I know my alignment therefore..."

But, lets explore some more.
It really isn't, for me at least. That quote you selected was just me saying that I didn't bother to go through his posts with as fine of a comb as I would have had he been alive.

Where we seem to be hitting a brick wall is that I am saying that it's possible for SSSS to have been a good lynch for both the town and the scum. I don't know if that's causing you to grit your teeth or what, because you keep throwing this back at me as though I can't hold this position. Well, let me save you any more sleepless nights: I can, and I do.
So, you haven't looked through Deer in detail is what I'm taking from the first... but, you are him? Or, so one prong of this argument has went.

But, lets look at the other. And why I'm really "gritting my teeth" (by gritting you must mean becoming more confident you are scum but I digress).

A good lynch:
For town is a lynch of scum or, barring that, a scummy player that delivers enough information to outweigh the mislynch (during early days).
For scum is a lynch that doesn't get them lynched (or setup a scenario where they get lynched (this is important later)).

So, could SSSS have been a "good lynch" for both sides? Sure. It easily fulfills the most basic of criteria.

Does that mean that pointing at someone as scum because "they were on the wagon" makes sense? Maaybe.

Does that mean that if you were also on the wagon but quantifying it as ok because it was "a good lynch" while simultaneously attacking someone else on the wagon make sense? Hoosssss no.

Thats the problem. Or, well, one of them.
Red wrote:You should quantify this beyond the catchword "nothing". I have came in here and tried to give this town some fresh arguments (and I'd like to think I've done a good job Very Happy), NS' lastest post, while nothing to write home about, at least shows he's still breathing, and Nikanor has done well to give more analysis than Te had.

I guess my point is, the "new" nothing players should be jbern, peanut, and NS. Either that or I think you should give us more than "here's a random group of three, with seemingly no connection other than lurking". Don't get me wrong, it's not as if NS and Nikanor are/were bad picks, but the same criteria that collected those three should at least be tickling in regards to peanut and jbern at this point.
Nothing isn't a catchword. It is what it is. Nothing. Truly what Deer did. Nowhere have I said you, RedCoyote, have done nothing. Because that would be silly AND a lie.

However, which is it? You are comfortable with Deer's vote as though he's a separate entity (which makes no sense, but I digress) but didn't read his thought processes?

But, I was scum because wf was? And, of course, because I was on the same wagon you were on?

And in that last paragraph you've said that my picks were good except for your position on it. That my picks were good except, solely, you.

And, considering the way this is going, I'll get to them when I get to them. I'm focusing my energy on the target I'd most like to get lynched today - you.
Red wrote: That's so WIFOM laden I don't even know how to come at it.

The two flips we had were both town, both off the SSSS wagon, for starters. Secondly, two of your three scum predictions were on the SSSS wagon, along with 6 of 9 of the remaining players overall. So if you're going to seriously argue that the two scum are more likely to come from 3/9 than 6/9, then I don't know what else I really can say.
Ahh, WIFOM, how I've missed your call.

No. Conventional wisdom being what it is, if scum put themselves in a scenario where they can push through a mislynch without being on the wagon in such a way that it does put huge alerts on them... every time. Because of things just like this.

If I were scum and thought I could wait a wagon out for town to do the dirty work without painting a target on myself for it I'd do it every damn time.

As for the other.. and? My picks had nothing to do with that wagon. They had to do with the skaters - and majorly so. I'm standing behind those. I'm not trying to paint that wagon as some pro-town tech wagon while being a part of it.
Red wrote: Why shouldn't I come after you for this? You called out Deer before I took over the slot.
Come after me for what? For calling out Deer before you replaced for doing nothing? For calling you out for a different set of things because you are definitely not doing nothing?

----

But, that was a lot of noise for the other part of this I really want to get into. Up there I said a "good lynch" for scum is one that isn't them... or gets them lynched for it.

Oddly enough I saw enough in this doublespeak I laid down the gauntlet.

You've called me out as your #1 scum pick. You've got me aggressively going after you.

And I've never, ever seen a vote from you
. Even though there's "significant preference".

Why is that?
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Post Post #437 (isolation #27) » Mon Mar 29, 2010 6:38 pm

Post by SpyreX »

He's totally serious.

He just misspelled RedCoyote.

Happens to the best of us.
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Post Post #441 (isolation #28) » Tue Mar 30, 2010 8:51 am

Post by SpyreX »

Red wrote:It really isn't, for me at least. That quote you selected was just me saying that
I didn't bother to go through his posts with as fine of a comb as I would have had he been alive.
Red wrote:
It was necessary to do this because Deer was being unjustly persecuted by the likes of you, chau, and jbern.
I had to show why it was that, contrary to what was accepted, Deer was one of the top townies during D1.
Red wrote:
Deer has been one of the more townie players in this game
, and I challenge anyone to say otherwise.
Hmmm.
Red wrote:Well, firstly, you're glossing over the weight of the wagon, again. Why else do you think I would be pushing the idea that we should focus on the wagon? I realize the inconvenience that puts on me. I'm not blind; I know Deer was on the SSSS wagon. That doesn't change the fact that the two town flips in the 11 person game were off the wagon. That's serious, and you're gravely underestimating that fact. I can't imagine you're doing so honestly either. Secondly, even if you want to play it by a strictly scumhunting basis, I would not contend that NS, Te, and peanut were the worst offenders yesterday. Sure, they weren't the best, but NS and peanut were middle-of-the-road, and Te was only a bad read by virtue of the fact that he was caught with his pants down by chau. Prior to that, I think he was actually playing rather townie. Unlike a player like, I don't know, wf, he only made one real slip-up (although it was a pretty substantial one, as it was enough to put him pretty low on my list).
Such beautiful doublespeak. Yes, the two "town" flips weren't on that wagon. One of said "town" flips was the point of the wagon.

So, realistically, we're looking at fitz. Who, if one took the most direct "why fitz?" mentality it points squarely at dragonfly. Not a function of not being off the wagon.

Further, this is all under the supposition that the kill was a function of the position on the wagon. Which, well, woosh.

Now, if you came out
tomorrow
after another set of kills there might be something worth while to look at in that data pattern. As it sits, all I'm concerned about is that it looked and felt like a normal scum-split.

And if you're going to be all coy and say WF slipped up then go for it. State it, go for it, push the lynch through.
Red wrote:Because Deer was already on record of disliking SSSS since before his wagon ever even gained traction. What about wf? Nope. You? Yeah, as I recall you mentioned SSSS in passing, but you weren't exactly head over heels for SSSS when you joined in. You wanted NS, which was somewhat reasonable (but who isn't reasonable on D1). I don't think you have a leg to stand on if you're going to argue Deer's hammer from your point of view. I do, because as I said, I can go back and point to Deer's suspicions of SSSS, which I did earlier for chau. In other words, you can't equate Deer and yourself on that wagon, and that's what gives me the authority to argue against you.
I am not WF. We shared the same slot. I am not WF. If you are going to have the stones to go "well, WF suspected X and you don't" as some kind of rosetta stone I can't help you.

Deer's hammer was "welp, dragonfly came in, so rzhang isn't scum, so hammer".

I'm not trying to "equate" anything. I'm saying, very specifically, you're using a whole lot of dissonance to parse this out.
It's just so convenient for the town that me and Deer happen to both be scummy for completely different things!
I know! Serendipity is awesome!

Of course, doing something "completely different" than nothing isn't that hard sooo.
Red wrote:Simple. It's a compromise. I don't think either one of us will be lynched today, to be honest. I'll continue to point out your excuses and halftruths, but I don't honestly think I can get a wagon on you. Sucrose, chau, and Nikanor all give you a thumb's up for some reason, NS is off in his own world, and jbern is possibly a scumbuddy, or at the very least, completely focused on me. Who does that leave? peanut (now Sociopath) and Dragonfly. Unless I see the tide turn in some other direction, there's no sense voting you. I'll keep pressuring you, but I think jbern is a more agreeable choice at this point. I may even get you on board.

Additionally (and heaven knows I'm going to be slammed for this), it's not impossible for you to gain ground. I'm realistic; I realize I may not have all the answers (however unlikely that may be Mr. Green). It's possible for you to be town, and you have to understand that I don't doubt that possibility.
Woe, alas, my excuses for ??? and my halftruths about ??? are undone. Yet, apparently I am protected by an impenetrable shield that warrants
not even voting for me
your #1 A++ suspect.

Whereas, I am going to push hard. And try to get this to gain traction. And, if I can't, I'm going to look again real, real hard at whats going on and push from there.

I'm really not stoked with how much fragmentation there is right now.

I want to give that friendly reminder that in most cases if you ignore whats going on with Red and I we're going to be around tomorrow in lylo with the same song and dance.

Additionally, I would like to reiterate that I, if wrong, handed the scum a real strong position tomorrow... and only got the tiniest of nibbles.

Why is that?
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Post Post #442 (isolation #29) » Tue Mar 30, 2010 12:59 pm

Post by SpyreX »

EBWOP: And, of course, its a mislynch today.
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Post Post #451 (isolation #30) » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:55 am

Post by SpyreX »

red wrote:Hmmm what?

The first post refers to SSSS, not Deer.
Woo, then I went retarded. Fair enough.
red wrote: I'll be blunt about it, Spyrex. If you actually believed this nonsense, that we should ignore voting patterns and wagons until tomorrow, then you wouldn't be on me. You should be voting NS. Or Nikanor. Or even Sociopath. I know you suspect Nikanor, and you definitely suspect NS. If you are so certain that the SSSS wagon was a pure as you think it was (and if it wasn't pure then you'd have no reason to argue with me), then NS should be a slam dunk. Right?

But you're not voting NS, and that's what makes all of this a facade. Rest assured if I was a Vig I would've put a bullet in your head days ago.
Believe what nonsense?

I think there was a spread on that wagon. I've said that over and over.

I wasn't the one who tried to spin 'look at the two town deaths that weren't on the wagon' like something bigger than it is - one of them, of course, was the person wagoned. Which leaves a single point which could damn well be for a bevy of other reasons versus "protecting the seething scum on the wagon".
red wrote: I would vote you in a second if I thought any player besides you, me, and Dragonfly was bothering to read all of your spin for the nonsense it is. That said, and I love how you completely ignored this, jbern is a very worthy wagon as well.

I mean, go read Nikanor's post 439 if you think I'm joking. "I'm just too busy so... you are both neutral! <3" As I said, I'm realistic. I think you realize this too, the situation we're in. We're both going back and forth, on a different level from the rest of the town, and that's almost always a recipe for indifference. The conclusion is neither of us will be lynched, although there's nothing I'd want more than the scumSpyrex from Morning People Mafia trophy on my wall.
Pretty sure Chau has commented. Pretty sure that isn't an absolution from even trying at this point.

Will I have to give up and vote NS? Probably.

Does that mean I'm sure not going to try to get this done.

----

I'm REALLY stoked with Socio not taking his crazy pills today.
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Post Post #456 (isolation #31) » Thu Apr 01, 2010 12:46 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Red wrote:It's a valid point, statistically. You've got a group of 3 and a group of 6. As we're both part of that group of six, it necessarily lends itself to be more advantageous to look to it a bit more, as opposed to the group of 3, which, to top it off, was much more disorganized to begin with.
I guess its a matter of: do you think there is scum in that grouping of three? I do. I'm fairly confident about it.

Do I think there is scum in the wagon? Probably. Not concentrated scum but one for sure.

However, considering I'm pretty sure at least a 1/3 in one versus a 1/6 it makes more sense.
Sociopath wrote:Water Foul was totally scum, but I'd rather keep SpyreX around for changing his role PMs around for something less than scum.
Confused.
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Post Post #458 (isolation #32) » Thu Apr 01, 2010 12:50 pm

Post by SpyreX »

:O

Now that dynamic would be truly awesom
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Post Post #460 (isolation #33) » Thu Apr 01, 2010 2:59 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Wait...

Socio is voting for Sucrose who he says is town?
RC, who also has Sucrose as #2 town, is fine with this vote?

GOD
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Post Post #463 (isolation #34) » Thu Apr 01, 2010 7:54 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Busted.
wf, his voting of SSSS relative to everyone else on the wagon, his position that we cannot use the SSSS wagon to scumhunt, and his voting of me one the one hand,
all the while predicting that the scum avoided the SSSS wagon.
Those four things make a scum cocktail, I think.
Show it.

Cite me saying there was no scum on that wagon.

If you do it I'll lay down and be lynched.
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Post Post #465 (isolation #35) » Thu Apr 01, 2010 8:52 pm

Post by SpyreX »

If I were scum I'd stay off that wagon. Yes.
If I were scum and thought I could wait a wagon out I would. Yes.

Nowhere did I say scum avoided that wagon.
In fact, more than once I have said just the opposite.
We've argued about this enough that wasn't accidentally misreading my stance.
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Post Post #467 (isolation #36) » Thu Apr 01, 2010 9:11 pm

Post by SpyreX »

We're back here and its all good.

Same deal as before. So, go for it. Glad to finally see the vote.
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Post Post #468 (isolation #37) » Thu Apr 01, 2010 9:18 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Deadline is in three days.

I've spent about all the energy I care to with Red.

Weigh in. Everyone.

If I end up getting los ropos, do NOT forget what I said today. I'll strangle you all from the grave.
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Post Post #475 (isolation #38) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:02 am

Post by SpyreX »

Which is why I'm leaving it alone for now. I'd still love to see the lynch.

That said:

Chau, thoughts on Sociopath's weird behavior?
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Post Post #477 (isolation #39) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:22 pm

Post by SpyreX »

What???
And the results are in.
Survey says:
Vote: Sucrose
I've thought Sucrose to be scum since her postings regarding rzhang.
Who was totally town, and was one of the few rational people early on in the game.
You've got 7 posts this isn't hard.
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Post Post #479 (isolation #40) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:37 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Jesus lord I need to get my eyes checked. The scum and town on those lines juxtaposed?

WOooooo
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Post Post #480 (isolation #41) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:37 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I read that no less than FIVE times and until you bolded it I saw it backwards
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Post Post #483 (isolation #42) » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:43 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Nope, just somehow read scum as town or something there.

AWEESSSOMMEMEEEE

Nevermind Socio we be cool now
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Post Post #498 (isolation #43) » Sun Apr 04, 2010 8:29 am

Post by SpyreX »

Why socio over NS considering the bevy of NS-related content we've seen?
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Post Post #500 (isolation #44) » Sun Apr 04, 2010 2:47 pm

Post by SpyreX »

While you're not OMG TOWN you're definitely not my first choice at the mo'. Especially after we had our journey on the Reading Rainbow.
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Post Post #508 (isolation #45) » Sun Apr 04, 2010 6:41 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Le sigh.

If we get a fat batch of lurkers tomorrow I'm not gonna be psyched. I way prefer NS to Socio. I prefer RC to NS.

HOWEVER IF ohh... Dragon, jb, et al opt to play twiddle nuts I'll happily oblige them.
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Post Post #510 (isolation #46) » Sun Apr 04, 2010 7:04 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Low priority and not my favorite by any means, but to stop a nolynch? Yea.
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Post Post #512 (isolation #47) » Sun Apr 04, 2010 7:13 pm

Post by SpyreX »

OHH SNAP

Unvote, Vote: Jb
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Post Post #514 (isolation #48) » Sun Apr 04, 2010 7:28 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Sociopath I swear you make my brain itch.

P.S. Happy birthdays
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Post Post #523 (isolation #49) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 7:57 am

Post by SpyreX »

I'm here. I thought we had more time.

I will lynch literally anyone to stop a NL.
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Post Post #525 (isolation #50) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:07 am

Post by SpyreX »

Socio please throw down a vote so we make sure we don't F-- if you haven't
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Post Post #528 (isolation #51) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:56 am

Post by SpyreX »

OHH GOD IS IT TIME TO TURN THIS BUS AROUND
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Post Post #530 (isolation #52) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 9:03 am

Post by SpyreX »

I'm very, very irritated at NS showing up with that comment now ESPECIALLY when I don't think we have enough people to lynch him.
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Post Post #535 (isolation #53) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 9:33 am

Post by SpyreX »

I will be around. So, just in case we can get this party started:

Unvote, Vote: NS
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Post Post #545 (isolation #54) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 10:54 am

Post by SpyreX »

Seriously if he's not scum after this set of events I don't even know. It HAS to be.

(Maybe Nik:JB scum with the throwaway I don't know)
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Post Post #548 (isolation #55) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 11:31 am

Post by SpyreX »

A rope will clear that right up.
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Post Post #550 (isolation #56) » Mon Apr 05, 2010 11:38 am

Post by SpyreX »

Yea seriously I don't even care about the claim now.
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Post Post #560 (isolation #57) » Thu Apr 08, 2010 7:33 pm

Post by SpyreX »

HAY LOOK AT THAT RED WAS SCUM CONSIDER ME SHOCKED AND AWED
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Post Post #562 (isolation #58) » Thu Apr 08, 2010 7:37 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Every fiber of my gutbelly says its jb, but one needs some analysis.

Note: Roleblocker is dead. Thoughts on claiming?
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Post Post #564 (isolation #59) » Thu Apr 08, 2010 7:44 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Like I said its a gut. Partially the parked vote on NS when we were throwing a storm at each other. And the tri-bus.
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Post Post #574 (isolation #60) » Fri Apr 09, 2010 2:23 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I can support this.

Claim or die.
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Post Post #579 (isolation #61) » Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:43 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Fffff

Vote: JB


Jesus if this is what it takes fine.
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Post Post #583 (isolation #62) » Sat Apr 10, 2010 5:04 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Shhh chau you've got to ease them into the massclaim. With kisses and cuddles and then once he claims BAM.
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Post Post #587 (isolation #63) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 6:54 am

Post by SpyreX »

Probably one scum left and Nik started a ball rolling that I want to see the outcome of before he gets murderated.

Of course we still need another replacement (as an aside, he's just flat out not on the site, rite?)
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Post Post #608 (isolation #64) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:07 am

Post by SpyreX »

See this is how you ease em into it chau all nicelike.
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Post Post #615 (isolation #65) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:41 am

Post by SpyreX »

I don't think MyLo is a worry barring MADNESS.

I want the rest of the claims today too. Depending on how this plays out we might have it in the bag today.

1)SpyreX
2)chauchaudotcom
3)Ythan
4)Nikanor - VT
5)Sucrose - Vig
6)TheLoneWolf - VT
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Post Post #618 (isolation #66) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:48 am

Post by SpyreX »

Silly rabbit you're assuming you're getting lynched.
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Post Post #620 (isolation #67) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:58 am

Post by SpyreX »

I see the universe unfolding in front of me.

But, yea, no reason to not at this point and depending on a few variables it might be slam dunk city.
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Post Post #622 (isolation #68) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 7:05 am

Post by SpyreX »

You and me both. The culmination of these efforts is always the hardest part.
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Post Post #624 (isolation #69) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 7:43 am

Post by SpyreX »

It is time.

3 are out. Please claim, thanks in advance.
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Post Post #626 (isolation #70) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 7:48 am

Post by SpyreX »

3 are out. Please claim, thanks in advance.
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Post Post #630 (isolation #71) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 7:54 am

Post by SpyreX »

Unvote, Vote: Ythan
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Post Post #636 (isolation #72) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:04 am

Post by SpyreX »

Half the roles are outed. We want to limit the fakeclaiming and force ALL the claims out.
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Post Post #638 (isolation #73) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:06 am

Post by SpyreX »

Alrighty, thank you.

Chau: Me or you?
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Post Post #642 (isolation #74) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:11 am

Post by SpyreX »

Ohh chau I was really hoping you'd go the other way since that would have been tech and awesome.

VT here.
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Post Post #646 (isolation #75) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:19 am

Post by SpyreX »

I wanted to ASK because I wanted to see your response ;)

Not that it matters, thats game set match.

Unvote, Vote: Nikanor

Sucrose: Shoot Ythan.

(additionally - I will not be voting Sucrose tomorrow if you let him live. Which means, at BEST if you leave him alive its gonna be a draw suckas)
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Post Post #647 (isolation #76) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:20 am

Post by SpyreX »

Yep. Unless its wacky hijinks somewhere Cop/Vig vs RB makes sense.
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Post Post #650 (isolation #77) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:23 am

Post by SpyreX »

Yea, its pretty much done at this point. Sucrose for MVP for that shot last night.
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Post Post #653 (isolation #78) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:29 am

Post by SpyreX »

Mind you chau that if you're scum you TOTALLY get the MVP but I doubt it soo.
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Post Post #677 (isolation #79) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 2:08 pm

Post by SpyreX »

See above. Not buying this one in the least.
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Post Post #680 (isolation #80) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 2:12 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Lets say this were the case. Instead of flat out lying until you were up on the block you could have said any myriad of things earlier today to lead to this even being a skosh more believable.

Not even a chance I'm gonna roll with this as it has played out.
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Post Post #714 (isolation #81) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:13 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Wait, isn't wolf the other one you have an innocent on?

Again and you can lynch me I don't care BUT - the simple fact that Nik lied about it until he was getting the rope is enough for me to push this lynch and *shock* IF HE IS TOWN I STILL WOULDNT BAT AN EYE BECAUSE THE ABSOLUTE AND UTTER RIDICULOUSNESS OF HOW THIS WENT DOWN MAKES MY BRAIN HURT.

But, whatever.

Lynch me and go with Niks plan or Lynch Nik and shoot Ythan.

It shouldn't matter unless ultimately a PR is lying and if its chau its a scum win.

Also, and lets be real clear: Do not, do NOT lynch Sucrose. If he's an SK I'd rather let the mafia try a prisoners dilemna where they BETTER not win than handing them the win in case of "ohh SK".

So, no matter how this goes it should be fine.
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Post Post #716 (isolation #82) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:17 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Good lord.

Make this stop. Is it me? Is that the choice.

Unvote, Vote: SpyreX
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Post Post #718 (isolation #83) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:22 pm

Post by SpyreX »

(and, needless to say, I don't care what the WACKY HIJINKS are if Chau isn't *jailed*) then Nik dies. Period.

I dont care if the mod says he's clear. Dead.
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Post Post #719 (isolation #84) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:25 pm

Post by SpyreX »

100% Nik.

I'm voting for myself because when "I'm town. Just kidding I'm a jailer" isn't a power lynch I'm out.

Doubly so if you are actually town.

You know I'm flipping town.

Absolutely I'm saying both the PR's if alive should not be lynched. So.

Get it done.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #85) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 8:46 pm

Post by SpyreX »

And, for the record:

"Confirming" yourself really is impossible (the closest to it would be if chau expressly gets "you have been jailed" and even THEN still itchy on that whole alignment part) and totally unnecessary if you believe Sucrose is vig and not an SK.

And your lynch would, in fact, if town make the idea of a godfather a lot more palatable.

The only thing that gives me pause and also what makes me so absolutely angry is I don't see how this is going to give you a scum win. At all. Which makes me think you are town and makes me even more irritated.

Of course, if you really want me to "turn on my brain" I can just say go back and look at the absolute disconnect from the entirety of Red and I yesterday and the push on anyone but NS until it was inevitable.

So, live today and assume your faction is going to lose. Whichever it is.

But, I don't care at this point one bit who gets lynched as long as its not chau or sucrose. So, have at it.
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Post Post #724 (isolation #86) » Thu Apr 15, 2010 9:05 am

Post by SpyreX »

I think I'm done raging out.

Unvote, Vote: Nik


If Nik is town, shoot me. That should be a nice spread.

There is (or better not be) a roleblocker left on scum so let tomorrow play out. These are my thoughts (and keep in mind this is 100% if Chau is lying welp GG scum):

If there is only one kill:
* Chau is dead.
-- Sucrose has some splainin' to do. This realistically is the only scenario I'd say lynching Sucrose.
* Sucrose is dead
-- Mafiers are playing at funny tricks (the GF COULD be a factor here). Its going to be the chau show at that point. Don't immediately jump to "my investigations are wrronng" but keep an eye on it.

If there are two kills:
* Sucrose is alive
-- Do NOT kill him. Period. Sitting at three left means the worst that can happen is a draw. The best is still a win.
* Sucrose is dead AND Chau is dead
-- Well, if this happens I have no idea (it means Sucrose killed Chau which is wooosh). Godspeed at that point I suppose?
* Chau is alive
-- The win is on Chau.

If there are no kills:
This wont happen. Promise.
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Post Post #730 (isolation #87) » Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:36 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Where is this mystical second roleblock coming from?
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Post Post #739 (isolation #88) » Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:54 pm

Post by SpyreX »

NO SIR I HAVE NOT BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO THE ROLE YOU HATH CLAIMED THAT HATH DONE NOTHING AND THERE HATH BEEN NO DOUBLE ROLEBLOCKS.

(Nik is a vanilla scum that was screwed by chau claiming two live innocents, fyi)

Jesus.

Let today end.

Is it Ythan now?

Fine.

Unvote, Vote: Ythan


P.S. You better hope chau has some concrete evidence.
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Post Post #741 (isolation #89) » Thu Apr 15, 2010 6:04 pm

Post by SpyreX »

For my sanity, just do it.

Let this, the worst of days, end.
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Post Post #743 (isolation #90) » Thu Apr 15, 2010 6:26 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Hi fives all around!
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Post Post #747 (isolation #91) » Sat Apr 17, 2010 7:23 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I'll never understand your move Nik but I think we're still ok:

Lynch one of TLW and I, shoot the other.

Game, set, match.
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Post Post #749 (isolation #92) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 5:01 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Thats probably what we should be doing.

However, gimme a day or so to think through the scenarios we're looking at.
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Post Post #756 (isolation #93) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 4:23 am

Post by SpyreX »

Likely? Not all that. Its possible but having a scum that neuters two of the town PR's isn't going to be balanced all that well.

I've gotta go with my gut though: either way, me and wolf need to go. Pick the order.
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Post Post #757 (isolation #94) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 6:24 am

Post by SpyreX »

Actually, hold up.

There are three scenarios available (sans chau being scum which, gg):

1.) There is only an SK left:
--- That is Sucrose
2.) There is only a mafia left:
--- That is one of Wolf and I (Wolf)
3.) There is an SK AND a mafia left:
--- Sucrose / Wolf

I think the correct move in all scenarios is to nolynch today (and sucrose No KILLS) and push it to three.

1.) If its only an SK I'm praying that its the type that has to kill.
2.) If a mafia is left between wolf and I they HAVE to kill Sucrose or we play for a draw as the losing option tomorrow. In which case we'll have the classic battle of the "confirmed".
3.) If there is a mafia AND an SK and 1 is true the mafia have to nolynch and hope sucrose doesn't hit them or kill sucrose (which puts us in the above scenario).

I need thoughts though. I'm banking on chau being town. I'm town.
I really doubt there is an SK and mafia left. So it IS one of those two but I don't know the best way to parse out which way it could be.
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Post Post #759 (isolation #95) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 1:28 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Chau being confirmed (if you are town) is nice and all but the fact is simple: if scum exists they absolutely can NOT have you alive tomorrow for any chance at a win.
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Post Post #761 (isolation #96) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:11 pm

Post by SpyreX »

You know the dealio Sucrose. No shootin'

Vote: No Lynch
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Post Post #765 (isolation #97) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 6:53 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Hrmmmmm.

I really didn't expect this, but if there's just an SK left then I fail and I accept that.

Vote: TheLoneWolf
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Post Post #780 (isolation #98) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 5:56 am

Post by SpyreX »

Sigh.

Yea I'll take the heat for this loss.

I was looking at it during night and I just couldn't wrap around an 8:2:1 with the town having cop / jailer versus rb / goon vs sk.

Like Nik said, if he was a jailer the godfather made a lot more sense and I stuck to it.
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Post Post #791 (isolation #99) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 1:36 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I didn't expect a two person mafia get off me :P

Nik (while not blaming him) threw me off my game. I'd be interested to see how things played out if he didn't fake claim there.
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Post Post #794 (isolation #100) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 1:43 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I was balancing everything against a three person mafia in my head.
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Post Post #796 (isolation #101) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 1:49 pm

Post by SpyreX »

The difference is if there is three mafia versus 2 mafia / sk then Sucrose can't be scum. ;)

I'm not justifying anything. I was wrong in my read of the setup and off in my late game. Just saying where I was coming from.
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Post Post #798 (isolation #102) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 1:55 pm

Post by SpyreX »

It sure does. :P

While odd coming from a replacement the replacementitis this game had hurt my head too.
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Post Post #801 (isolation #103) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 2:00 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I'm fine with that.

Hopefully next time I just get killed before I screw up endgame.
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Post Post #804 (isolation #104) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 2:26 pm

Post by SpyreX »

You were pretty right on about that AND I did think about it but went "Well claiming that kill means he's probably not scum with RC et all sooo"

And then Nik killed my small face (the one inside the big face)
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Post Post #806 (isolation #105) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 2:32 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I'll share a dirty secret that should be obvious: I tend to gloss over kill flavor. :(
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Post Post #811 (isolation #106) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 2:39 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Although the covered in bacon wouldn't have made me leap to "OHH SNAP SK" but I would have taken a pause.

Mr I'll replace in say the scumteam is the scumteam then vote for Sucrose.
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Post Post #813 (isolation #107) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 2:47 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I agree entirely.
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Post Post #816 (isolation #108) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 2:52 pm

Post by SpyreX »

I'm 1000% percent behind analyzing night kills and if I had seen "covered in bacon" in both of those kill flavors that would have had some weight.

However, I still think that the kill flavor is a separate entity from the overall flavor (making arguments based on X and Y in a theme setting) and the latter I would not be down with.
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Post Post #819 (isolation #109) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 2:55 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Yea I didn't check it - just saw chau was a cop and the word shot sooo.

Anywho, my loss, shunn shunn
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Post Post #833 (isolation #110) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:11 pm

Post by SpyreX »

BTW Chau:

You played an awesome game. Don't think you did anything wrong.
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