Mini 905- Mafia in Sienna OVER

[Fate]

/confirm

I'm replacement #3 for this role I see, I'll get right on to reading the thread.

[Fate]

That was a painful read.

Current wagon:
Wicked's unvote of Kitten D1 seemed like townie changing their mind, it is a bit of a stretch to reason his actions as scummy. I can't see why scum of any experience level would "buy" a WOT defense and unvote that close to hammer. More likely they would disagree with the points and push for the lynch.

CTD's blatant wagon switching by 'agreeing with Ythill" is noted. What if Ythill is scum?

FOS: CTD

(doesn't look like we'll get a wagon on him). Thesp also seems to be cruising by and not doing much to attract attention.

I've played with Leaf before, and I know how to handle him if the time comes.

Something no one has brought up but I would like to talk about: Choice of NK? Why MME? From the read through he didn't stand out at all. I would wager we have experienced scum getting a free kill who couldn't be linked to anyone.

The following players have the most scumpoints in my notebook as I read through:
CTD
Pman
Sotty
Thesp

My read in this game is that the scum are sitting back and letting town lynch themselves. I like a pman wagon right now, especially because of his

Pman: "I'd vote wicked but someone will say OMGUS"
Ythill: "If you have reasons it isn't OMGUS... town won't hate you for it"
Pman: Town won't? OK then [insert fluffy reasons here]

Vote: Pman

[Fate]

It's 3am for me, and I'm mainly taking notes to use tomorrow, but

I've played with Leaf before, and I know how to handle him if the time comes.

Huh? This is my first game on mafiascum...

Indeed it is. Good thing it isn't your first game of mafia ever. That said I'm honored to be in your first game of mafiascum.

@Ythill: My read isn't that scum are sitting back and doing nothing. It is just that they are being very "unproductive." Not making enough posts to stand out, not taking any firm stances to draw attention. They can still make votes.

He understated the Wick case and jumped right on the only opposing wagon that is not himself.

IIoA noted. I wasn't going to jump on my own bandwagon, and I don't think wicked is scum. If the votals are right, Pman's wagon is only 2 votes right now, but it was the best option out of all those I suspected.

[Fate]

This close to a deadline, no sense in my vote being all lonesome. I will gladly move it back to Fate if there's a possibility of a wagon there.

Unvote: Fate, Vote: pman5595.

So we should wait a week? I've been pushing for two weeks and haven't gotten any traction. I'd rather push for our claims/lynch now, and I don't want to be pushed up against the deadline doing it.

The last two posts from Thesp make me *raise eyebrows*

I think your vote on me was back when Budja was still around. Either way, it didn't seem like it was going to stick, so you switched wagons.

Why didn't you put Wicked at L-1? Especially if you want to push for claims? As I see it right now, the only reason you voted pman was because he had more votes on him.

Unvote

Vote: Thesp

I haven't liked your posts all game, and this seals it for me.

*Further actions pending Wicked's claim*

[Fate]

Edit to clarify:

Why didn't you put Wicked at L-1? Especially if you want to push for claims?

As I see it right now, the only reason you voted pman was because he had more votes on him.

Should read as two different thoughts. The first parts are questions, the second part is "the reason you voted pman was baseless" NOT "the reason you voted pman instead of wicked is because pman had more votes" In which the latter is false.

Sorry to confuse.

@Ythil: IIoA=Information instead of analysis. Maybe I have the acronym wrong.

[Fate]

Nice deflection of the pman5595 wagon. I'm quite happy with my vote on either of pman5595 or Fate.

So are you suggesting I voted pman, and I am now deflecting off him? How about you respond to the other points in my post?

[Fate]

I'm going to wait on Mori for awhile but, if the Wick wagon grows, y'all can expect me to jump on.

If it's between either of them, I'd vote on Wickedestjr, but I'm not convinced it needs to be between the two of them.

Mod, can we get a prod on Budja?

We seem unwilling to give attention to people who aren't posting.

^No, I guess you didn't make it clear, because in this post it seems like you are willing to vote Wicked. Add that to the fact that the "point" I brought up that you should've explained was your dissonance between "close to the deadline, let's push for claims lynch." and not voting Wicked, who you said before you're willing to vote for, to put him at L-1.

[Fate]

Yes, Sotty, that is what I am implying. If we move ahead with Wicked and he flips scum, I'm going to want to go after him in depth tommorow.

Wicked, this is absurd. You read the thread enough to respond to one post, but you don't see that you are a L-1 and ready to claim?

Need more time to think about the best fakeclaim?

[Fate]

Yay working all superbowl week-end. Wow, still no claim? Ok then... *goes back to other games*

[Fate]

Interesting turn of events.

Perhaps Pman is a godfather...

[Fate]

Unvote: Thesp

Vote: pman

Didn't know the deadline was that close. I agree Wicked's flip would give us information on Pman, but then we lose our vig. The other way around though, is that pman's flip will give us a lot more on Wicked.

On the other hand, I seriously doubt a doc protect went through, or that a shot in the dark roleblock worked.

So if pman flips town, and there's no kill at night again, we can go from there.

[Fate]

[quote="pman5595"
His claim just doesn't make sense. I find the chance of there being a roleblocker+the chance they would use it on him very unlikely. I think there might be a small chance he is a serial killer, but if we lynch serial killer, that is somewhat good too. I find it very hard to believe that he is town. I think the vig claim was a scare tactic (maybe even him waiting as long as possible to claim, knowing we were close to the deadline)[/quote]

Funny you didn't mention the unlikeliness of a doctor protecting yourself. Vig as a scare tactic makes no sense, as scum think long term. Vig will eventually come out one way or the other as a liar.

[Fate]

Hmm... Leaf, I did think that was odd, but I have never been a vig so I don't know what the response is.

Unvote: pman

Vote: Wicked

Either your kill went through, and he didn't die, or you received a roleblocked message. Care to explain, even though it is too late as you should have clarified it the first time?

[Fate]

Vote me after the SK claims to have shot someone who didn't die...

???

Vote: Pman

Wicked was a dumb SK, but that doesn't mean he lied about shooting you.

[Fate]

His claim just doesn't make sense. I find the chance of there being a roleblocker+the chance they would use it on him very unlikely. I

please remind me why I am guilty because a roleblocker or a doctor. stopped the kill

FOS: Thesp

For having two candidates and then voting me. He's distancing.

[Fate]

I don't see anything that would lead me to believe you to be protected or a reason to RB Wicked. So you not dying is very significant, yes.

@Ythill: Me believing Wick and then subsequently changing to vote him doesn't explain much. If he flipped scum, I would expect to be lynched today for what was clearly a buss. But it wasn't. Leaf pointed out something, and I followed with it.

The only other defense is the fact that I have two predecessors. Should give you a hint to the reasoning (or lack therof) behind my actions...

[Fate]

So if Pman's my buddy, my strategy yesterday was to agree with the vig claim and buss Pman instead?

Ythill I know you're smarter than that.

[Fate]

You should've believed Wick might have been a vig, if you did indeead RB him.

Someone hammer.

[Fate]

Yeah we got him. My replacing in was a good luck charm for town...

Or maybe,

it was Fate.

[Fate]

If you're town and you post a valid case, it can't hurt can it?

[Fate]

It couldn't have been a bus. How can a mafia member bus a SK?

Please explain your reasoning better. Right now it seems as if you're trying to come up with reasons to deflect suspicion away from you:

FoS: Leafsnail

[Fate]

okay the suspicions of leafsnail are complete crap. Just letting everyone know. All he has done the entire thread is point out a rule that contradicts the basics of a game of mafia, and ask Ellibereth if there was a purpose for the jokes. Trying to be serious and hunt scum is now a scumtell? everyone on that bandwagon needs to think about it a little more.

Actually, did an ISO of Pman. Only time he ever mentions Leafsnail is when he's defending him. There are a few more posts like this.

Vote: Leafsnail

FOS: Moriarty

I liked Kitten's posts, but her replacement have been non-existant.

[Fate]

It is a deflection because you are probably indeed his scum buddy, from the posts I've read.

I ISO'd you as well. "Pman thinks of me as town, could be he has a read or is scum trying to cloud my judgement." In later posts, you continually refer to Pman as a town read to you.

The connection is there. The rest of the town will find it, it is just a matter of time. Like you said, we still have plenty of power roles.

I don't think it was scummy. You pointed out an obvious flaw in his argument (not knowing whether his kill was blocked or he was RB'd) that I didn't think of, so I switched back onto him.

You still haven't answered the question: Why would I get

off

the SK and

on

to my partner, Pman?

[Fate]

It was damning to me. I'm used to games where you are told if you are RB'd, and where you only find out you have been blocked if you wake up and your target is still alive.

You're right, your point did make me realize he was more likely a SK than a vig. That is why I moved back to him. Not because it was "safe" but because I'm town and want to lynch the bad guys.

[Fate]

It was damning to me. I'm used to games where you are told if you are RB'd, and where you only find out you have been blocked if you wake up and your target is still alive.

...These two statements directly contradict each other.

No they don't.

Blocked=bounce off protect
RB'd= Roleblock.

Thesp comes in and quickvotes...hmmm

[Fate]

3 mafia 1 SK? Unlikely.

Since there's probably only 1 mafia left, lynching me is a good play.

I'm a vanilla townie, so we're not losing much. I don't know why the mafia NK'd Ythill who would've gone after me today, but I guess they just wanted to get rid of a good player and maybe frame me with it.

As long as all the PRs breadcrumbed in case of their death tonight, we should be ok. Hopefully the case on Leaf gets reviewed tommorow.

[Fate]

Doesn't change the fact that I look "scummy" apparently. And having no one else claim and lynching a Vanilla is the best bet.

Best that could happen is I'm scum,
Worse is you lose 1 VT and have a PR night killled (hope you breadcrumbed).

[Fate]

Why aren't you even trying to get scum today?

I am. Look where my vote is. If the other three players agree with me, all the better.

[Fate]

Can't really post a defense of myself without trying to go back and explain the actions of

two

former town players.

I would be less wary of the connection between Leaf and pman if it were one sided, like you quoted Sotty. But look at Leaf's attitude towards him and you'll see that he leans "town" on pman as well.

If someone called me an innocent townie I'd definitely be more wary of them the rest of the game.

[Fate]

I'm not the best "build a case" player. When someone flips scum, I ISO every player and see how each one is treated them.

ISO Leaf, Ctrl+F pman. You'll see what I mean.

As a contrast,

ISO Ellie, Crtl+F pman. Notice the difference?

[Fate]

I strongly sugest ISOing Fate and doing a search for pman. Interesting how he has pman on his scumlist the whole time, only unvoting him to vote Thesp, and later Wicked. Huh, looks like Leafsnail is misrepresenting me.

Interesting how Leafsnail ascertains my alignment based on only myself?

Nothing to say about the links Budja and ConfidAnon supposedly made to Pman?

[Fate]

Yes. All the players before me have had the same role, no?
Shouldn't their actions be a fundamental part of your case?

But they aren't. All you've said is "Budja has acted scummy as well."

[Fate]

I'm not defending myself.

I'm attacking you for not making points against them.

[Fate]

Fate, are you saying that Leaf is scummy because he isn't making a case against confid and Bujda as well as you? I'm not seeing your point.

That is one of the reasons, yes. Leafsnail's "case" on me is my interaction with Pman. It should follow logically that my predecessors also had some sort of "odd" interaction with him, but he hasn't pointed those out. It also seems like he is unwilling to.

The other reason is his and Pman's mutual defense of each other D1, having reads on eachother as "town." It seems to me like Pman, the lesser experienced scum, made the slip first and Leafsnail wrote a line "being wary of Pman scum trying to coud my judgement." But then he goes on to say he thinks Pman is town!

I agree with whoever first discussed it (Leaf, I think), that Pman probably only has one buddy based on what looks like a genuine slip from him. But irregardless of whether this assumption is right or wrong, Sotty7's play today looks bad to me. Either she's trying to deflect from her scum-buddy Fate or she's already working on the next lynch since Fate is clearly the way to go today.

Really don't like this post from CTD. First he says he thinks Pman has only one buddy, and that I'm, "clearly the way to go today" (based on mine and my predecessor's interactions with Pman, which he also doesn't reference any particular post) but he also setus up suspicion on Sotty for tomorrow after I flip town?

FoS: CTD

@CTD: Since you'll probably just agree with Leaf's proposed PBPA of my interactions with Pman, care to show us where you saw Budja/CA interact with him as a likely scumbuddy well?

[Fate]

SIMULPOST: Nice timing, heh.

Early attacks on Pman

<- A RVS vote is NOT an early attack, this connection is null.

followed by linking another player

<- Wow. CA noticed the connection between Leaf and Pman, as well. Well thanks for adding to my case on Leaf. (I think you're suggesting here that CA set up a connection between Leaf and Pman so that later he could bus Pman and mislynch Leaf, really?)

pman - There are only three people on him right now. Why so nervous?

It's not like any of us would let a lynch happen on Page 4, and he's nowhere close to a lynch.

Could you and leaf be scum together?

Hahah! I wish CA was still reading this. CA, I promise that I voted Leaf based on only my ISOs of Leaf and Pman. This is hilarious we both see it.

Weak defense of Pman, coupled with not taking a stance on Pman/Ellie. Notable for being one of the very few things he commented on upon replacing in.

<-A completely different person than CA, and he has a completely different read of Pman. Understandable? I think so.

More weak defense of Pman.

<- See above, Budja has him read a newb town (he was half right).

p-man's arguments were flawed.
I didn't like Elli's later actions and thought him the best choice.

^this is the weak defense you're referring to? Pman's arguments are flawed is a defense.

Votes Pman as soon as he replaces in, but abandons his vote shortly after in favor of Thesp, because the latter voted Pman, Fate's top suspect (!). Makes zero sense, and smells of deflection. This was followed by wild flip-flopping between Wicked and Pman.

First and only explanation for this behavior: "Surely I wasn't bussing!" He doesn't have a pro-town explanation, only an anti-scum explanation. This is a clear indication of busing to me.

I read this whole game with a notebook. Adding + or - for each person based on the scummy/towniness of their posts. Pman had the most "-"s so I voted him immediately.

My vote of Thesp was valid:

Why didn't you put Wicked at L-1? Especially if you want to push for claims? As I see it right now, the only reason you voted pman was because he had more votes on him.

Unvote
Vote: Thesp

I haven't liked your posts all game, and this seals it for me.

Look at the REASONS behind a vote, not just the static "oh he unvoted Pman and then voted Thesp." Thesp switched from me to Pman, saying the deadline was closing in, but he didn't put Wicked at L-1. Very odd.

I still stand behind my "why would I buss with a Wicked lynch was more likely?" If you think it is WIFOM, that's fine. Hopefully you'll have more to your case than that.

[Fate]

EDWOP

Pman's arguments are flawed is a defense.

Should read with a ??? instead of a .

[Fate]

In any case, I remember when you were all like, "Hey guys, I'm just now in the game and I'm voting for pman5595" then I was all like "It's getting closer to a deadline, let's get a real wagon on pman5595 so we have a wagon to compete with wickedestjr's wagon" and then you were all like "Screw that, I'm now voting for Thesp". Good times.

Nice misrep. I can do it to:

I was all like, "Hey guys I just read the game I'm voting for Pman"


you were all like, "Hey I want wicked to claim but I'm NOT going to put him at L-1, I'll vote Pman instead."

I was all like, "WTF is up wit dat? *Votes Thesp*"

[Fate]

Yes, Leaf. Is that so unlikely?

[Fate]

Can you explain why?

Because I had just replaced in. Pman was my #1 based off notes. Thesp became a target based off my interactions when I started playing. So I voted him to see other's thoughts and his reaction.

Which is irrelevant now, because Pman flipped scum and now Leaf is my #1.

[Fate]

Yep.

Go for the easy lynch town! Surely you're not being guided by scum!

[Fate]

OMGUS? Me voting you was a OMGUS? Why not find actual, you know, FLAWS in my argument on you?

This makes me all the more confident.

[Fate]

Non-existent huh. Say it enough times and town will believe you, basic psychology.

So, how do you explain your earlier town read of Pman and his read of you as town? I suppose you just have bad reads?

[Fate]

Still here. Double replaces are annoying, I don't get why people hate vanillas that much.
*Sig*

[Fate]

A RVS vote is NOT an early attack, this connection is null.

CA noticed the connection between Leaf and Pman, as well.

So a RVS vote is not an early attack, but "noticing a connection" in the RVS is completely valid. Thank you for playing. Not to mention that his vote on Pman certainly wasn't just "a RVS vote".

That is debatable. If I were CA I would be able to defend that stance better, so what can I say. I can only defend it through knowing his alignment and guessing.

I think you're suggesting here that CA set up a connection between Leaf and Pman so that later he could bus Pman and mislynch Leaf, really?

I am suggesting that linking town players to a scumpartner is a common scum-strategy, as it opens the door for a variety of plays later down the road, including, but not limited to:
- going after the town player after a successful bus
- easing off the scumpartner after a successful lynch of the town player
- distancing from a scumpartner without outright bussing

The reasons why I think this was the case here (as opposed to CA simply reading one of the guys wrongly or even CA catching two scum):
1. There was no real evidence for a connection
2. the progression of his argument was : "Pman is scum" -> "Leaf is scum for defending him" -> "lynch Leaf", which logically doesn't hold any water since his suspicion of Leaf hinged on Pman being scum. He should have gone after Pman if he actually believed in what he said.
3. I find it far more likely that this was a scum-ploy as opposed to a CA seriously believing he had caught two scum this early in the game (which is compounded by the fact that he focused almost exclusively on Leaf after he had established the "connection")

Leaf being scum hinged on Pman being scum? Well guess what, Pman DID flip scum. So now his connection is valid. Players often see connections like these even though they have little basis with no flips. If we go back later in the game these make sense.

A completely different person than CA, and he has a completely different read of Pman. Understandable? I think so.

Entirely beside the point. The scummy thing is not that his opinion was different than CA's, it's that he chose to specifically comment on Pman/Ellie almost to the exclusion of everything else, and yet didn't even take a clear stance on the issue (defending both players weakly).

See above, Budja has him read a newb town (he was half right).

Thanks for quoting it again. I consider passing off scum as "newb town" a strong scumtell.

Well I don't.There are genuinely newb town players and need to be read with that in mind.

this is the weak defense you're referring to? Pman's arguments are flawed is a defense.

A bit more subtle than the rest, which doesn't make it any better. In this quote, he's justifying Pman being on the wagon while making excuses for him.

See CA and how I can't think what my previous incarnations were thinking.

Look at the REASONS behind a vote, not just the static "oh he unvoted Pman and then voted Thesp." Thesp switched from me to Pman, saying the deadline was closing in, but he didn't put Wicked at L-1. Very odd.

Thesp switched to your top-suspect instead of to the guy you didn't suspect. Where exactly did you see a scummy motive in this?

Where do you see the scummy motive in this? Why would scum switch off his partner onto someone else when his partner wasn't in danger of being lynched?

I notice the only thing you have on me is my "Thesp" vote. And Sotty thinks this is a strong case?

Hmmmm Sotty might be scum trying to look hesitant on my lynch to set up a Leaf lynch tomorrow.

[Fate]

I asked for a case on my predecessors, knowing it would be a weak case because, by definition, it is false. I tried to defend them as best I could, but all I have is knowledge of their role and not their playstyle, etc.

It makes a hell of a lot more sense if he already knew pman's alignment at the time.

Not really. The case was weak at the time, you can't really expect to lynch someone based off any buddying action. But later on, it gains strength after one person flips. Damage control on me won't make it any better.

(town don't tend to defend themselves using interactions with dead mafia members).

Quote:

I didn't ignore the question. I didn't understand it. CTD, where do I see the scummy motive in what? I thought I was scum?

How do you know this again? Isn't the case on me the interactions with a dead mafia member? Then why the hell WOULDNT I defend myself with the same? You can't have it both ways.

So he's my partner trying to get me lynched for tomorrow? Even though we'd control the vote tomorrow?

Are you claiming scum? Where did I say Sotty was your partner? I think this is a slip. You have it cemented into your mind that you are scum in my eyes (because you actually are), so when I mention another candidate for scum you link it as your partner? Ha.

Conclusion:

Sotty looks at other targets. CTD looks at Sotty. Thesp...posted very little today. Leaf has tunneled me and is not acting pro-town at all. He's pushing this mislynch through aggressively. I hope he is looked at with care tomorrow, unless town wants to turn this ship around now while there's hope.

[Fate]

QED.

I'm obviously working under the theory that Leaf isn't scum. Hence why this is a popular scum-tactic. And while the "connections" themselves may make sense in hindsight (I don't think they do), the push for one player over the other doesn't.

Why are you assuming Leaf isn't scum? Are you so tunneled and arrogant you can't imagine that you could be wrong? Or are you scum and don't care that you're wrong?

I make note of the fact that you have ignored one of the points I raised for no apparent reason.

You don't care? If something has zero scum motive, then why is it used as evidence against them? You can't have it both ways "It makes no sense as town he must be scum." and then BLATANTLY IGNORE, "it makes no sense as scum, he might be town."

Also I didn't ignore. I have no idea what you were trying to ask. Re-word it please.

[Fate]

Reactionary to Pman flipping scum, yes.

What do you think of CTD, Sotty? Just because his case makes sense logically means that he is town?

[Fate]

Well then I'm being lynched for bad town play and the culmination of the bad play of my predecessors. This was a doomed slot to replace into, and I made it worse with my Thesp vote.

I thought it was scummy that he was worried about the deadline approaching, but

did not

put Wicked at L-1 to get a claim out of him.

I have defended myself as best I could, and I did not use only "I know my role." I tried to logically defend the often illogical plays of both my predecessors and myself.

Using Leaf as town for the sake of your case against me is dangerous. Why would you eliminate a suspect just for the opportunity to kill a different one? If you're town, why are you eliminating the chance that Leaf could be scum? If you're scum, you could be buddying up to Leaf in agreeing with his lynch of me.

Don't rule out that Leaf could be scum. If you want to call him town, refute point by point my case against Leaf's buddying with Pman. You haven't commented on my case at all (goes for Sotty and Thesp as well)>

[Fate]

Hey Dramonic. Either you or Sotty get to hammer me! Yayyy (pssst let it be Sotty. You don't want your first thing coming into the game being hammering a townie)

[Fate]

So your two reads are between myself and Leaf? Care to elaborate?

[Fate]

Bah go town. Unless Leaf is town, then he can lose for being failtown.

;D

[Fate]

Who was right about Thesp again? >_>

I'm also curious about CTD's investigation targets.

[Fate]

That was a painful read.
The following players have the most scumpoints in my notebook as I read through:
CTD
Pman
Sotty
Thesp

My read in this game is that the scum are sitting back and letting town lynch themselves. I like a pman wagon right now, especially because of his

Pman: "I'd vote wicked but someone will say OMGUS"
Ythill: "If you have reasons it isn't OMGUS... town won't hate you for it"
Pman: Town won't? OK then [insert fluffy reasons here]

Yeah I guess a fresh set of eyes usually does "nail things" but I didn't stick to my earlier reads and went down a suicide tunnel with Leaf at the other end.

GG Scum, you deserve it.

[Fate]

6 Players? Hmmm. I suppose MyLo didn't cross my mind. Especially since I didn't think there would be 4 scum total.

That would be the only feedback I had, was that scum was pretty strong this game. If it were three goons and a SK it might be doable, but a RB'er may have tipped the balance.