Mini 903 - Owarai TV (Game over... who won?)

[Raskol]

Hey. This game should be interesting, as I have prior experience with 6 of you. I think this will be the first game where I have that many familiar players to work with.

Thoughts so far:

-anon's play so far doesn't seem similar to his play as scum in our game together (leaning town atm)
-everyone else: need more data

Will spend some time coming up With questions that will help me sort things out a bit.

[Raskol]

Amished

---Pretend deadline is now. Who is most likely to be scum, to the best of your knowledge?

Anon

---Thoughts on anyone, please.

chauchau

---Thoughts on anyone other than Reck, please.

devestation

---Thoughts on anyone other than raivann, please.

dramonic

---Post something or die.

vote: dramonic

HellnFire666

---Why did you feel the need to explicitly mention the italicized in the following quote?

Unvote, Vote: Anon, you are the only twitch on my scum radar so far, but

I will unvote if you have a case, this is by no means a final vote

.

Also, thoughts on anyone other than Anon please.

Raivann

--- Pretend deadline is now. Who is most likely to be scum, to the best of your knowledge?

Starbuck

---Thoughts on anything unrelated to your wagon, please.

The Inquisition

---Post something or die.

(vote would go here but it's already been used)

VP Baltar

---Thoughts on any of the players in the game, please.

xRECKONERx

---Thoughts on anyone besides Starbuck/Anon?

[Raskol]

No, my vote isn't random; it's the kind of vote I feel is good to make when we're out of the RVS with some people not having posted at all.

[Raskol]

This is kind of an awkward question, but had you replaced in about a day sooner, would you have made about the same sort of entrance with the questions and the vote?

Impossible to say. I was in a much different mood yesterday.

However, I do think I would have tried to accomplish the same thing no matter what game I replaced into or what mood I was in (I just might do it differently)---generate info, force people to talk about things they've been avoiding, bring inactives into the game.

[Raskol]

@Raskol- I don't see them not posting yet as scummy- I wasn't linked to the game at all and only noticed it had started when I was boredly browsing this section of the forum and saw the topic. They need to be prodded, not voted for.

Both is even better, don't you think? I imagine that if he gets prodded and sees his name in bold his response will be that much more motivated.

Starbuck---there was a question for you in there.

VP---get around to it when you get around to it, no rush atm.

[Raskol]

Starbuck

---fair enough, just making sure. In the future I'd be more than happy with just an acknowledgment that you'll get around to it when you have more time (as VP did)---as long as you really do, of course. =P

Amished

---My experience with Anon is more relevant as of this moment because he's playing very differently than I saw him play as scum. That's enough to give me an initial town-lean, though I won't let it become an excuse for him if he does something that pushes him the other way.

The rest of you haven't done anything that strongly pushes me one way or the other as far as a meta read, though there are non-meta things that have caught my eye about a few people.

As for your question, I wouldn't have made a random vote 2 days ago either.

chauchau

---I find meta to be very useful. Mafia is a game of figuring out people's motivations, and the better you know them the better you can do that. It's not infallible, but then, nothing is.

[Raskol]

@Raskol: If he (Anon) is playing differently from his meta (as scum) then either he's town or he's aware of his meta and is intentionally subverting it, right? How aware do you think that he is about how he acts as different factions?

I have no way of knowing that, just as I have no way of knowing when anyone is faking anything I consider a tell. If I go down that path, I might as well just get the dice out right now.

[Raskol]

lol true enough. I was hoping for a more ... substantial isn't the right word but it's close, lean on your read.

If you could pick it up in the first 3 pages though, what was so different that you saw?

One thing I do know is that if there's anything that's guaranteed to make my meta reads worthless, it's telling everyone what I'm looking for. So how about I link you to the game and you decide for yourself if you agree that what's there supports a (slight, initial) town read in this game for Anon?

Anon's ISO for that game.

Raivann---based purely on the information I have now, I would say Hell, followed by VP Baltar. If it were deadline I would want to lynch them, in that order of preference.

[Raskol]

Just wanted to say I'm FINALLY back from vacation.
Gonna read up and stuff :3

Hmmm.

unvote, vote: HellnFire666

request prod/replacement for The Inquisition

[Raskol]

Seriously? Any particular reason?

Yeah: your posts up to that point seemed to avoid making much comment on other players in the game in an alignment-relevant or information-seeking sense (compared to the early posts of others), which is the opposite of what I'd expect from a town VPB.

[Raskol]

I'm still pretty happy with my HellFire vote.

Also have to say I don't really buy Reckoner's act. His whole playstyle this game has seemed pretty forced to me---this whole "LOL I'm a cavalier townie just having fun and doing outlandish things for pressure and reactions" thing isn't like him ime, and he isn't really pulling it off. Any thoughts on that, Reck?

[Raskol]

Even if I'd never played with you I'd be thinking the same thing. It's not a meta thing.

It's not enough to put you at the top of the list, but it's there.

[Raskol]

Would like to hear comment on this wagon from everyone that hasn't voted on it or said anything about it yet. Not gonna list em all, you know who you are.

How do you feel about the wagon, and will you be willing to hammer? Any other thoughts? etc...

[Raskol]

Just something I thought I'd throw out there...

(This guy was telling the truth, btw. Start of D3 with no votes on him)

HellnFire's claim and his reactions since then have me doubting my previous scumread on him.

Unvote

Reck, why do you want to hammer? I thought you said you were leaning newbtown as well?

[Raskol]

Happy Birthday, Amished!

So, HellnFire is a CoCo alt? (I've always wondered why everyone else seems to know everyone's alts and I do not)

If so, then he does indeed have a precedent for this kind of thing and I'd be ready to unvote for now.

If that was simply cited as an example, then I think that's much more the exception than the rule. There are plenty of games out there where scum have claimed their roles unprompted and early in an effort to save their hides.

It was just an example. As far as I know, HellFire isn't an alt of anyone.

It may be true that this is done by scum also; perhaps they even do it more often. But the impression it's giving me at the moment is more newb town than newb scum. I'm going to stick with my gut on this one, I think.

[Raskol]

Well, from the rest of his posts in that game, I think he really was at the least slightly off in the head and/or mafia-challenged (for example, someone used the phrase "early reports indicate that x and y are town" in the RVS, and CoCo spent multiple pages challenging the person to produce the reports. In complete seriousness. ).

I don't get a CoCo-ish feeling from HellFire at all, and it wasn't meant to be a comparison between the two players; it's just a case of someone claiming vanilla early and telling the truth (and CoCo had been under pressure from the previous day, so it wasn't out of the blue). Overall I don't really see why someone of either faction would benefit from claiming early: it seems to me that it's just a newb tell, if anything. But the way a thing is done can be telling as well, and the post where he claims doesn't give the air of someone who is trying to be tricky. It's hard to say exactly what I mean here, but posting his suspicions in the same breath as his claim seems to be the move of someone who knows he's telling the truth and expects people to believe him (either that or a scum clever/experienced enough to fake that kind of naivete, which doesn't seem likely).

[Raskol]

I dunno. I'm slowly starting to learn there's a very thin line between newbtown and newbscum, and unless it's a newbie game, both need to be lynched.

I don’t think you’re the best person to be saying that right now.

[Raskol]

So yeah, I'm thinking that since I don't have a single town read on that wagon atm, I'm really disliking the idea of a HellFire lynch more and more.

For now,

vote: Inquisition

The only thing he's done all game is give off a scumtell that's never failed me (granted, the amount of times I've seen it is two, but I've hit scum both times jumping on it).

[Raskol]

Does anyone really think we're going to gain that much information by letting D1 drag on any longer? I mean, discussion hasn't necessarily been BOOMIN' so far.

It's not so much that I want D1 to be longer, so much as I think what I've got so far suggests that I'd be happier if it ends with a different lynch.

I really wouldn't mind hearing something from Inquisition either though, like why I shouldn't regard the fact that his first and only move today was an attempt to end the day before he's had a chance to interact with anyone as a pretty good sign he's scum.

I wouldn't mind hearing from you why you're so eager to hammer someone you've said you have a town read on, either.

[Raskol]

Bullshit answer or truthful answer?

Will there be a difference between the two?

[Raskol]

I will post content tomorrow, I promise.

Deadline past and I'm tired of waiting. Lynch this scum now town.

I haven't found scum to be likely to promise content and then not deliver, actually. Especially when under pressure. This is reeking, to me, of lazy newbtown.

I do think Raivann makes a good point(!) about Devestation though, actually.

Dev: could you describe the thought process that led to your switch off of the HellFire wagon?

[Raskol]

Seriously? Plenty of scum promise content and fail to provide because they have to do much more work in scraping together a fake case.

I really think you are simply equating noobish behaviour to noob-town, when they are actually not alignment tells at all.

If they're not alignment tells, then they can't be scumtells either. If they are, then it's up to you to show me why they point to scum more than town. It's true that scum have a harder time producing content than town in general, but in cases where scum promise to do something, I think, they're more likely to do it---because of the huge concern they'll have for appearing consistent and reliable (and so, 'good') to the town. I don't see any motive for a scum player to promise content knowing they have nothing to deliver, so I don't see any reason to think that HellFire is scum for promising and then not delivering content. Is it annoying and useless? Yes. But it's not scummy, or at least, I have yet to be convinced of that.

In the meantime, I think there are things worth pursuing wrt Inquisition and Devestation (I was thinking Reck but his answers mostly satisfy me---if he's scum then he's playing an incredibly strange WIFOM game---filing him for now under 'annoying and useless but not scummy'). Things that I think are much stronger indicators of actual scum than anything Hellfire's done. I don't really want to lynch HellFire any more, but I certainly don't want to see him lynched before I've had an opportunity to talk some of this other stuff through.

[Raskol]

Hmm. Well, I'm having trouble finding where you explain how claiming early is a scumtell at all, much less a better one than anything else that's happened all game. The last I can find that you mention it is in your ISO 33, where you say this:

Well, it's not so much that I see any actual scum benefit from him doing it as I think he felt pressure that wasn't necessarily there and really did think it would refute the arguments against him. As you said, it's a noob tell (which does not speak to actual alignment).

I do hear what you are saying though Raskol and that is actually the reason I'm trying to question him. I'd like to know what his experience is and possibly read some of his previous games.

You may have some reason in mind but I don't think you've given it in-thread, unless I'm missing something.

[Raskol]

I think the downsides of leaving a claimed VT alive are small.

I think the fact that the argument currently being made for HellFire's lynch has nothing to do with how likely he is to be scum suggests that the above three posters are either scum, lazy townies, or incompetent ones; in any case I don't particularly feel like going along with them.

My suspicion of Devestation has gone up and my suspicion of Inquisition has remained the same (high). I would rather lynch either of them than HellFire, though I'd probably rather lynch HellFire than anyone else but those two.

I have no idea what Amished is thinking. I have no idea what Reckoner thinking, if anything. I currently have a weaker read on many of the players in the game than I would like to have at the end of Day 1. I do not want to end the day yet. Need comment from everyone, but especially from Starbuck and Raivann.

Inquisition, who do you think is most likely to be scum? If you had to lynch someone besides HellFire, who would it be?

[Raskol]

It's difficult for me to regard the claim as anything but a nulltell, which is part of why I'm having trouble understanding how you can be so certain about this.

I'm not against ending days well before deadline

if

we can be sure scum is caught

and/or

we have reason to believe there won't be any good info gained by continuing the day, but afaic neither of those conditions have been met. If we had an approaching deadline I would be 100% okay with just lynching HellFire early but as it is I really don't want to move on to what will amount to a Day 1.5 with a lynch of someone I regard as about random chance to be scum when I have issues with players that haven't been gone through yet.

[Raskol]

Here I am, about to sum up Inquisition's participation in the game.

Post 1: Hey, Amished is scum for talking about the RVS, and also for distancing himself from his scumpartner Raivann who actually now that I think about it isn't scum hehhehe.

Post 2: Hey, I know I haven't done any scumhunting yet but we should go ahead and lynch Hellfire even though I don't think he's scum.

Post 3: Hey, I still don't have any reason to think HellFire is scum and still haven't made any comment on the game but let's lynch him quick because otherwise scum will know he's not a PR.

[Raskol]

If there's a standard double voter it has to be Inq, since he's the only one on the wagon now that wasn't on it when there were 6 votes and 6 names listed.

However, if he's a double voter then that fact wasn't indicated on the votecount when he was voting for Amished.

Either this is mod error, Inq is a double voter whose double votes only show up when there are enough votes to lynch, or we have someone in the game who can vote out of thread (ie kill the mod this ain't a normal mini).

I'm already dead.

[Raskol]

I agree that Amished and VP are both probably town. The alternative is that they're extremely brazen scumbuddies and I don't see that happening.

Reck, you claimed double voter---I take it that means you're a simple, standard double voter? IE, your vote counts twice?

[Raskol]

Because I unvoted after the VT claim? Yeah, sorry for thinking "Hey, if I was scum, I'd fakeclaim a powerrole to try and draw out a counterclaim instead of just bending over and taking it up the ass with a VT claim!". I cannot stress enough that

I obviously found him scummy enough to use my doublevote on him

by the end of it.

At first, I could vote separately... but the mod cleared up that when I vote, it will just count twice. But it usually won't appear until someone is at L-1, which I guess doesn't really matter now that I'm outed as the doublevoter.

Speaking of which,

Vote: Starbuck

. More content please.

Clarify the bolded please. Are you saying the mod changed the mechanics of your role mid game, or that at first you didn't know what your role did?

[Raskol]

Hmmm.

vote: Reck

Not buying the doublevoter thing. It's impossible that Reck started out the game as a standard doublevoter, because a 6-vote wagon he was on didn't result in lynch. On the other hand, I seriously doubt Kise would fuck with us so much as to change someone's role in the middle of the game so that their vote counts for one at one point and for two at another. I mean, basically what Reck is saying Kise did is something like changing a cop's sanity, after their results have already been shared. That kind of thing is as far as I'm aware NOT ALLOWED (all caps, shift key to maximum) in a normal game and I'm thinking it's more likely that Reck is scum than that something like that was done. Especially given his godawful play yesterday, lack of pre-vote claim, etc, together with his change of heart and strangely serious attitude today.

I guess my thinking on this is that if believing a player in the game forces you to conclude that the mod of the game is a bastard when it's a normal game, then it's more likely that the player is lying. AFAIC, that means lynch Reck.

Also, if Reck is scum then anon probably is too. In evidence: anon's last post.

[Raskol]

Okay, np. As long as it's cleared up, it's fine.

My major reason for voting Reck is gone at this point, I think.

Unvote

[Raskol]

Sorry I haven't been posting much lately, had a lot of other stuff preoccupying me.

I'm more than happy with a chauchau wagon, tbh. The not voting after calling HellFire's post a "confession" is just obvious scumbag material.

Can someone explain the Starbuck thing to me, though?

vote: chauchau

Especially would like thoughts from Dev on both chauchau and Starbuck. Who's your preferred target, guy? Assume that you can only pick one of those for some reason.

Actually, need more of your thoughts on pretty much everything.

[Raskol]

I don't state my thoughts unless something jumps out at me or what I think is clearly not what anyone else is thinking- I get tired of being lynched for "lack of originality".

You're going to want to add "when I'm specifically asked for them" to your list of "times when I give my thoughts", unless you want to get tired of being lynched for "lack of content" and "dodging the fucking question".

[Raskol]

[bUNVOTE:

vote: devestation[/b]

I agree with letting the cop claim live.

VP, I think you may be overzealous this time---how is this another early claim? I put him at L-1 and Reck suggested that someone hammer. That's anything but early.

Meanwhile, I like Devestation for scumbag #2.

[Raskol]

Failtags.

unvote

vote: devestation

[Raskol]

Go on, lynch me. See if I care.

okay

[Raskol]

Isolated dramonic and found him too sure of hell being scum yesterday. However this day he has spent calling people townies (potential buddying, no reasons attached) and his only cases are weak as hell:

I want to lynch either Starbuck or Raivann. Both give me that tingly sensation and I think there HAS to be scum between the two.

Yet he doesnt vote any of them.

Good enough for me. We can kill him after Devestation imo.

[Raskol]

While I agree with the sentiment that both dram and dev are scummy, Dev definitely looks worse in my eyes. Post reasons or it's impossible to really get a read on you.

(BTW: Dev is worse for me due to the reaction to pressure and the knowledge that if town; his "lynch me and see if I care" wagon won't lead us to any scum due to his claim; which is the hope of all townies that are lynched)

But you have your vote parked on Reck because.....?

[Raskol]

votecount please?

I'm fine with lynching dramonic, btw. Oh so NOT convinced by the 'okay just lynch me then' thing two posts after Anon called doing that a towntell.

[Raskol]

Don't really care, the point is you're not helping yourself out with that.

[Raskol]

unvote

vote: dramonic

[Raskol]

Bleh, will get caught up soon. Had all my games go into night phase at the same time and I'm having trouble getting myself back into mafia-playing mode now.

[Raskol]

Here are my thoughts, not bothering to justify them completely atm. All of these could be wrong obviously, but I'm finding them more likely than the alternatives.

-It's unlikely that either VP Baltar or Amished are scum unless they're partners running a very specific strategy. Giving them both a townie pass because it's quite unlikely that this is what's been happening IMO.

-Reckoner is probably town. Double voters typically are. Also, his play would be extremely ballsy if he were scum (in a similar way to VP/Amished thing above).

That leaves Raivann, Starbuck, Anon, and Devestation.

---Starbuck's self-defense has seemed townie to me. Hard to explain exactly what I mean, but a lot of what she's been doing indicates someone who doesn't know for sure the alignment of her attackers. Also, the fact that Anon is pushing for her lynch suggests to me they aren't partners, which further limits the chances she's scum. She's a town-read for me, though not as solidly so as the first three people I listed.

---Raivann has been giving me VI vibes all game. On his own he would be unreadable but the many weak attacks that have been made against him suggest he's more of an 'easy target' than anything else. Also, the way he handled the Hellfire wagon suggests that if he's scum he was bussing in a way that I wouldn't expect from a player like him. I'm leaning town on him but am not confident at all.

---Dev has been scummy all game, and is focused heavily on Reck with only minor connections to anyone else. Might seem strange, but a large part of my scumread on Dev is that there isn't anything to indicate that he's town. He hasn't produced much if any content, has no townreads (this is a huge scumtell imo), and (insert all that stuff I said yesterday).

---I initially found Anon slightly town, then he slipped off my radar for a while and I've paid little attention to him. On a reread, with the benefit of flips and assuming my three townie passes were handed out well, Anon comes out in my top two among the remaining scum possibilities.

Anon shows signs of scumteam interaction with Hellfire (see his iso 9 ('coaching'), iso 11 (wagon deflection), and iso 14 (defense by gut).

I also noticed that he started buddying me after I gave an initial townread on him. Leaning scum for him.

TL:DR

-I could live with lynching either Anon or Devestation, preferring Devestation. They're our scumpartners IMO, for these reasons as well as what's already been said.

vote: Devestation

[Raskol]

Actually, fuck that. I'll still participate in a Dev lynch today if that's the way it goes, but I'd rather get Anon first.

Reasoning: Dev's flip will give me less information about the game than Anon's will, which tips the balance when I'm fairly (and fairly equally) confident that both are scum.

unvote

vote: anon

[Raskol]

Hmm. I didn't consider that reck counted as two: didn't intend to hammer.

Still, no huge loss if I did. I'm not sure what info I would have gotten today before a flip in any case, and Dev's isn't that much worse than Anon's.

[Raskol]

With Devestation flipping town, and Anon having defended him, I'm finding it hard not to start to think Anon is town.

[Raskol]

Actually, if I had to guess right now, I'd say the scumteam is Amished and Raivann.

[Raskol]

No lynch is fine with me. There's no one in the game I'm so sure of that a flip won't help me out.

[Raskol]

yeah, setup was pretty imbalanced.

I'm happy I got things right for once though =/

[Raskol]

Cop by itself is pretty OP, especially when the mafia have no roleblocker, godfather, or anything else to deal with it.

Giving the cop a backup on top of that is just overkill. It makes getting rid of the cop almost as hard to do as if there were a doctor. Against a 3-goon team, it's pretty imbalanced.

[Raskol]

Yeah, Raskol; the only reason you were killed was cause of your "I think the scumteam is Amished and Raivann" comment. What the hell did you see in us?

Process of elimination, basically. It's almost always how I go about things at that stage of the game =\ I forget the specifics but I remember I looked back at the reasons I had thought you were town and found they weren't very solid; you bussed hellfire but only after he'd done something that was sure to result in his lynch; I figured you were as likely to do that as scum as town.

Meanwhile, Reck had been cleared for quite some time, Anon's defence of an easily lynchable townie made no sense as scum (I really do disagree that it was a nulltell, I don't see any percentage in doing this as scum outside of 'gaining townie points', but thatt's kinda wifom-y and I prefer to keep things simple especially when reading people who are less experienced) and on top of that he was unlikely to be partners with either you or Starbuck, from the stances you all had on each other. on top of all that, a large amount of my feeling that he was scum was based on the assumption that he was dee's partner.

So, I was pretty much just left with you, starbuck and raivann and of the possible pairings among those, you/raivann was the one that made the most sense---raivann basically ignored the hellfire wagon, your involvment was consistent with abandoning a partner that's made a mistake you know leaves him without hope, and there were no interactions between you inconsistent with your being partners. I forget some of the specifics but that's the gist of it.

[Raskol]

Yeah, you played well. Things just kinda worked out against you.