Mini 863 - Space Station Mafia: GAME OVER - EVERYONE'S DEAD

[Hoopla]

Confirming. Hello everyone, good luck and may the best team win.

[Hoopla]

Nope, just one. It's Peabody. I suggest a healthy bandwagon on him to kickstart proceedings.

[Hoopla]

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

[Hoopla]

Vote: Peabody

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: AlamasterMG

[Hoopla]

Original Roll String: 1d12 (STATIC)

1 12-Sided Dice: (12) = 12

I have been meaning to comment on this since my first post, second post and third post, but didn't remember until after I posted, and I don't like to double post. Now I will comment.

12 players right? Were you willing to vote for yourself? Because how can you not be willing to be random out of twelve players, if you don't have twelve players to be random from? I call this randomness, bias. Therefore your vote was not random. So why did you vote?

The dice was completely unrelated, and purely for my own amusement. I did not want to vote for Sposh.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: Sposh

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: SerialClergyman

[Hoopla]

Okay, I am relatively satisfied you're town. I suggest we bandwagon someone to L-3 or L-2 before the end of this page.

If you choose someone other than me, I will support that choice in my next post.

Once we decide to do this, everyone else must either support this in their next post by following our lead, or give an adequate excuse as to why random bandwagonning is not pro-town.

[Hoopla]

By the way. Does anyone know how many scum there are? Isn't it usually 33%?

About. 25% is probably closer, I think.

I should probably help out here. 3:9 (3 scum, 9 town) is by far the most common set-up for a 12 player game. 33% only ever happens in large games with multiple scum groups. Balance of those games tend to depend on crosskills at night.

Another semi-common variation for mini games is 2:1:9 (2 scum, 1 SK, 9 town) or 3:1:9 - but if there is only one kill at night it is generally safe to assume you are playing in a 3:9 set-up.

---

On a more serious note, I'm quite confident Messiah is scum, and I encourage others to view his posts. Can we please bandwagon him now?

Vote: Messiah

[Hoopla]

I have my reasons, but it's in my interests not to reveal them yet. More Messiah votes please.

[Hoopla]

Yes milkshake, I do have information, and we ought to be voting Messiah. The reason I am not explicitely divulging my information (yet) is because it forces his scumbuddies to make a commitment one way or another early in the game.

To appease anyone who thinks I am lying, here is my reason, which I will reveal later:

M v a a i m a b t g a e w o s m s. I m i i f s, i p h i a i u p, t I m a k s, w i t c f h t r m t h n w.

T p o a u w i t g r (n j m), a i p s v m o o t c z.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, why are you jumping all over Messiah for jumping on a psuedo-bandwagon when you've been calling for a bandwagon almost the entire game?
Did I miss something?

I'm not.

[Hoopla]

NewAgeWarrior: I will happily reveal my coded information soon - if you want a hint in the mean time to tide you over, each letter is the first letter of a word in my message.

To be honest though, I doubt you're Messiah's buddy. It seems like a far too obvious defense which could come back to bite you if/when Messiah flips scum. Despite being wifom, I will tentatively chalk you down to skeptical town, which is okay, and something we certainly need.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, you missed my question:

Okay, I am relatively satisfied you're town. I suggest we bandwagon someone to L-3 or L-2 before the end of this page.

Is this in reference to HipHop? Can you explain your reasoning behind your conclusion, Hoopla?

Yes, this was in reference to hiphop - we had about 6 posts back and forth. I don't see how it could be anyone else I was referring to.

The conclusion wasn't true - I was only curious to see if he would follow my lead. His play I actually interpreted as a loose scumtell, due to some recent data-mining I did, where I speculated deliberately unusual, bizarre or anti-town play was more often than random seized upon by scum early in a game. The logic is scum seek a safe place to put their vote, and dislike commiting to something they can be called-on for easily. Whereas town, who have a more genuine attitude toward scumhunting, have no ulterior motives and thus tend to place dicier votes.

Is this satisfactory?

[Hoopla]

So form your POV Messiah is scum. NAW and I are town. Anybody else?

No, Messiah is scum.

I have a small town read on NAW and a neutral read on you.

[Hoopla]

Not liking Peabody or CoCo at the moment.

Hey Alamaster, do you have any more content you wish to add?

---

I have no idea what you just said hoopla, though I feel its my fault cause I think my brain stopped working for some reason. Can you restate that like I'm a kindergartner? a short summary would work too.

Sure, I can retry. I was talking about a scumtell I generated whereby scum tend to jump on unusual/anti-town playstyles as they deem it a safe place to put their vote. Scum want to avoid being under pressure, and will generally seek safety over a controversial position.

Anyway, this read was developed from reviewing the start of many games, and despite being very subjective at times due to ever-evolving meta on what is town and what isn't, scum tended to be the ones to seek the safety of votes on anti-town players, and policy lynches.


Rereading that summary, I don't think I made it any simpler. I hope you understand.

[Hoopla]

Man, a kindergartner would never understand that

So, if i get it right, you were basicly voting on and insisting on messiah for no real reason to he how he would react and to see who would believe such a cock-and-bull story for an easy and useless bandwagon.
Thats what i got from it.

What? No...

Peabody was enquiring about my interactions with hiphop. That's what my response to him was about. Hiphop.

[Hoopla]

Erm, that vote-count is way off. Like, really. Messiah should be at L-2.

[Hoopla]

I'm not a fan of anal voting rules, but I'll play along.

Unvote, Vote: Messiah

preview edit: we so should. lets do it just because it's hilarious.

[Hoopla]

unvote; vote cooldog

I'll explain why later... It's 3 am.

You better. You jumped off the wagon, just as it was gathering steam.

[Hoopla]

You are hesitant to believe the reason the bw is there and yet you still want it to be around. Isn't this almost contradictory?

Maybe it's almost contradictory... but honestly it's what I'm doing too. I'm losing confidence that Hoopla will have any worthwhile info in her secret little message, but I think that the only way we're going to get anywhere in Day 1 is to pile on to somebody and make something (whatever that something is) happen.

Then we can build real arguments from what happens instead of, well, "finding paragraphs scummy."

There are plenty of role-based ways information can be generated. Unconfirmed masons and neighbours, and day-cops off the top of my head. Although, I'm not ready to say if my information is generated from my role.

[Hoopla]

Maybe it's almost contradictory... but honestly it's what I'm doing too. I'm losing confidence that Hoopla will have any worthwhile info in her secret little message, but I think that the only way we're going to get anywhere in Day 1 is to pile on to somebody and make something

(whatever that something is)

happen.

You are doing it too. I think the part that is bolded explains it all. You don't know what you are aiming for, and yet you want a bw.

For all you know the bw could give the scum the win.

[Hoopla]

Maybe it's almost contradictory... but honestly it's what I'm doing too. I'm losing confidence that Hoopla will have any worthwhile info in her secret little message, but I think that the only way we're going to get anywhere in Day 1 is to pile on to somebody and make something

(whatever that something is)

happen.

You are doing it too. I think the part that is bolded explains it all. You don't know what you are aiming for, and yet you want a bw.

For all you know the bw could give the scum the win.

Explain.

I think that is something you need to answer in regards to your own post. It would be a pretty unbalanced game if scum could win from an incorrect bandwagon, no?

[Hoopla]

Are you an alt, milkshake?

[Hoopla]

That is some of the worst logic I have ever seen.

1) Lets say I didn't have information on Messiah, and we lynched someone else instead. You can make that exact same argument for whatever that player flips. A lynch based off a stupid semantics debate (which is what normally happens on D1) will not improve bandwagon info the next day.

2) The town will generally have at least 3 mislynches up it's sleeve (usually more, but never less). There is no way we will base any lynches entirely on a D1 bandwagon.

3) Your post only serves to scare the town away from lynching. We won't win if we let people off the hook. Yes, a healthy amount of paranoia and speculation is warranted - but you have nothing else to go on for D1.

To be honest, your post sounds like that of scumbuddy prematurely defending himself for not being for Messiah's lynch.

[Hoopla]

Hiphop, your signal:noise ratio is awful. You don't need to respond to every single line in someone's posts. Can I suggest next time a simple summary that makes it easy to understand both your position and mine? Remember, succinctness is pro-town.

Seeing as we're getting into that ugly typing contest phase, I am going to claim I have a day-time role.

[Hoopla]

I in paticular don't like Empking's post, because it almost seems like he is lurking. I played with Hohum in this game. He posted one liners all in day one. Turned out he was scum.

I think you ought to check each of Empking's games. That particular posting style (or lack of) isn't exactly unique to his scum game.

[Hoopla]

M v a a i m a b t g a e w o s m s. I m i i f s, i p h i a i u p, t I m a k s, w i t c f h t r m t h n w.

T p o a u w i t g r (n j m), a i p s v m o o t c z.

My vote and attack is merely a bluff to generate an early wagon on someone mildly suspicious. If Messiah is in fact scum, it puts him in an incredibly uncomfortable position, thinking I may actually know something, which in turn could force him to reveal more than he normally would.

The purpose of an unknown wagon is gauge reactions (not just Messiah's), as it puts scum very much out of their comfort zone.

The only way genuine reactions come from many players is through fear of the noose. Messiah was bandwagonned to L-1 at one stage and made logical defenses against himself implying he'd flip town (even after I had claimed a day-time role). I am relatively satisfied he is town for now.

The most adverse reaction from this is hiphop's, who I'd like to pursue. Granted, his reactions to Messiah's wagon makes more sense if they were both scum, I could see hiphop's stance being a logical one for scum

knowing

Messiah was not scum. It would keep blood off his hands in the event of it being followed through to lynch - but on the flipside I can see him just being a paranoid townie who doesn't like not knowing what is happening.

I think the former scenario is likely, and would like to lynch hiphop now. If anyone has any questions regarding this play, I am happy to answer them now.

Unvote, vote: hiphop

[Hoopla]

Also, I would have let this go on for a bit longer, but that's just me.

There was no need to, I was satisfied with Messiah's reactions, and wasn't prepared to lynch him. The message had run it's course, and it's time we got on to lynching hiphop.

[Hoopla]

hiphop: when have you ever seen a strong case on D1? If you cannot find one, it is your duty to be against every bandwagon on D1.

I agree, many people have a tendancy to overvalue their own reads (particularly on D1), but it is this cognitive bias that tends to generate information. If everyone played with a '

well, shrug, you're probably town going by pure probability

' attitude, we would get nowhere. We need people to make commitments (even if they are wrong or farfetched) to discover underlying motives.

[Hoopla]

But what you fail to realize is it puts nobody under pressure if they're aware the pressure from you will only be fleeting or nearly equally distributed. As scum, I never fear those sort of players because they're so easily prone to manipulation by the crowd, or herd instinct. If you fail to assert beliefs (or spread them like butter) nobody will really be influenced by your decisions, because they are admittedly weak whether you realize it or not.

[Hoopla]

I don't realize it, and I don't care to realize it. There are still people like you who ignore questions completely. That only makes me look harder at your posts. Where have I shown I can be manipulated by anybody?

Besides at the end of the day nobody knows who I find scummy

. That only leads to me being NK, because I am unpredictable. As long as the town wins, I don't care. At least than people get the suspicion that they do. Am I supposed to leave suspicious post untouched?

Yeah, not even you.

[Hoopla]

I like your thinking milkshake, however I don't endorse your theory of hiphop/Messiah scumpals, or at least it being the most likely combination.

Assuming we're in a 3:9 set-up (the most common mini normal variant), and ignoring all other variables, here is some numbers:

Both scum: ~9%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~50%

This is the odds assuming alignment is random. Do you really think the hiphop/Messiah pair has done enough to jump higher than it's pregame 9%? One scum/one town might be a worthwhile bet, but really, looking for scumpairs on the opening day is almost completely useless. Let's just focus on finding one. Fortunately for everyone, hiphop is that someone.

[Hoopla]

Claim, then hammer. We've dilly-dallied long enough today.

[Hoopla]

Both scum: ~9%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~50%

Where do you get these numbers from?

I get:
Both scum: ~5%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~55%

Erm, yes. You're right, appologies for my bad math. I worked out the one scum/one town problem first, and inadvertantly multiplied the Both scum/Both town problems by two at the end thinking there was two different combinations for those too. That of course isn't true. Your numbers are right.

So in theory we both should be town.

Except, every combination of players has the same chance pregame of being both town. Do you have any final words before someone hammers?

[Hoopla]

Nice work guys, that's one down.

[Hoopla]

Gut tells me Messiah might not be hiphop's scumbuddy, but I am willing to entertain the idea. Hiphop's defense of Messiah certainly is incriminating, although I suspect hiphop may have acted the same way regardless of who I set-up a bandwagon on.

My current preference is a policy lynch on Empking or CoCo. I think we can afford it.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: Why do you want to policy lynch today?

Proactive towns need to worry about more than just lynching scum - keeping people active and ensuring we're not left in lylo or later game scenarios with multiple lurkers (or even people incapable of analysing things).

We lynched scum D1, so we're ahead and can afford to do some tidying up. I think Empking is quite an excellent choice in my opinion - he was not on hiphop's lynch which is a good place to start. Coupled with his lack of content, I won't settle for much less.

Vote: Empking

I will have more soon when I've more time on my hands.

[Hoopla]

Sorry for not posting a whole lot guys. Currently, I think the charlatan and alamaster back and forth is intriguing, and based on yesterday's wagon, I would think that either Alamaster or milkshake is scum because they were the last ones on the bandwagon!

Bussing seems to be the scumtell of the month. Why do people not look at those NOT on the wagon after a scum lynch?

[Hoopla]

Empking tends to lurk and post one-liners as both alignments, but I think we have enough information to work with here. I'm yet to run numbers on it, but I suspect it's a relatively common scum tactic to drop a vote on a partner early, which is how I read Empking's first vote;

Vote: Hiphop

over reaction to a backed up joke.

This is backed up with the rest of his play toward hiphop, which serves to cast suspicion, but never further his wagon. This way it gives him an out in the event, he can't find a lynch elsewhere. Here is a good example;

Unvote

I still think Hiphop is more scummy than most but I have to say I don't like Peeabody's actions and how they effected the Messiah wagon.

Vote: Peabody

--

Empking's main interest was Messiah throughout Day 1, which is where his vote was more often than not. He left his wagon once hiphop's started to pick up, and he fizzled into the background toward the end of D1, where he did not make another vote. This is rather suspicious, considering he'd been keen to put forth his suspicion on hiphop earlier.

He's now conveniently using hiphop's flip to incriminate Messiah, which is interesting, because his suspicions yesterday seem independant of hiphop/Messiah being scum together.

My question to Empking is, would you still find Messiah suspicious if hiphop flipped town?

[Hoopla]

FoS: Hoopla

for derailing the Hiphop bandwagon.

I think you're forgetting I was one of the prime reasons why hiphop's wagon was reignited, and when it did, you were nowhere to be seen. Are you seriously FoS'ing me for this when your ties with hiphop are awful?

[Hoopla]

Whoa! Hoopla's 396 is just horrible! I'd like to wait for her to respond.
Sorry for not being active guys, I was at the beach for a few days.

Are you not reading what Eempking is typing?

[Hoopla]

I have more time to address this quote, so this is what I'm going to talk about;

FoS: Hoopla

for derailing the Hiphop bandwagon.

I think you're forgetting I was one of the prime reasons why hiphop's wagon was reignited, and when it did, you were nowhere to be seen. Are you seriously FoS'ing me for this when your ties with hiphop are awful?

You don't think actively derailing a bandwagon on scum is scummy?

This bandwagon you say I derailed was a 3-vote wagon (milkshake, Peabody, Empking) - the first two of these votes were random from page 2, and the third was your vote only supported by a pithy one-liner.

This is the stage where I create a coded message to generate a bandwagon on Messiah. This was an information gathering gambit, which served a good purpose. The funny thing is Empking blindly follows this and votes Messiah also.

Next, after a reveal my message, I am the first the kickstart hiphop's wagon which is something Empking neglects to mention in his post. Because I get the impression he isn't reading the thread, I will link the post.

--

Here is the summary: Empking is suspicious of me for 'derailing' hiphop's wagon, but refuses to acknowledge my influence behind his eventual lynch. Couple this with him leaving hiphop's wagon for Messiah also (and then trying to incriminate ME for it). And then the added bonus of Empking voteless at the end of the day claiming 'he didn't find anyone scummy', despite posting this about hiphop toward the end of Day 1.

[Hoopla]

Empking, what has changed your mind about Messiah. This is you earlier this day;

Vote; Messiah

Play based on actions in regards to hip hop.

Messiah, what are your thoughts on Milkshake.

Char: Messiah, barely.

And this is you now;

Unvote

Vote; Cooldog

Messiah probably isn't scum and Cool is not scumhunting but just... well look at 402. He ignores questions and his main scumhunting is "You weren't voting for two days" which he made when he hadn't voted for at least three days.

Explain this to me please.

[Hoopla]

Hiphop had three votes on page 3 (two of them random). Two other players had two votes, did I derail those wagons too?

[Hoopla]

Thanks char, for giving me an answer.

Welcome Howard...

we are at l-2 on agm lets now start to consintrate on him, force a claim, get a case on him, etc. I almost want a l-1 to force a claim but then a scum might come in and hammer.

No. NEVER FORCE CLAIMS when you don't need to. And especially when there aren't 7 people willing to have him lynched. Seriously, there is NO reason to want claims when the wagon doesn't have the support.

As far as AGM goes, he feels the same way as the town games I've seen. I don't understand the case against him.

MORE Empking votes please.

[Hoopla]

Once again CooLDoG somehow forgets we already saw Almaster claim.

Hoopla's insistence that CooLDoG not push for an Almaster claim means we can add her to the list of people probably not paying attention to the game.

Eh, sorry. I have been reading, but I have been more focused on my other game to be honest. I missed his claim.

[Hoopla]

I'm not opposed to a Sposh lynch if we can't get any votes on Empking, but I won't settle for an Almaster lynch.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: How do you feel about a Sposh lynch?

I wouldn't lose sleep over a Sposh lynch, but I've stated multiple times that Empking needs to be dead.

[Hoopla]

Speaking of Hoopla, I'm not liking her newfound one-liners. She was doing very well in day 1, but that passion just seemed to have gone out of her.

I'm aware of this, and I appologise for my recent uninspiring play. To be honest, I'm not having much fun - but it's probably a general mafia burnout than this game specifically. I want to try and make a big effort again soon to bring myself back in the game. Please badger me here until I do so, because I am browsing.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, what are your thoughts on CooLDoG?

He appears to be parroting thoughts of other players, without generating any unique analysis. It's a neutral tell at best for me though, as I view him as a relatively inexperienced player. I could see his play being town or scum.

[Hoopla]

Hey Messiah, what do you think about Empking's play so far?

[Hoopla]

Milkshake, you know I like your style, but I don't understand your reasoning behind your vote on Messiah. Can you give me a condensed summary on his play you have an issue with?

[Hoopla]

I see where you get your logic, but I disgaree and tend to think the likeliest scenario is Messiah was town, and hiphop wanted credit for being against his lynch (if Messiah was lynched at some stage), because he knew he was town.

That would be a pretty elaborate gambit (me+hiphop scum) to organise before play, and seems counterproductive when many players will probably dismiss it as wifom. Like, I don't think most others think I'm overwhelmingly town because of my magnification of hiphop's play. Doesn't seem like a good payoff.

What do you think about Empking's interactions with hiphop, milkshake? You seem to have not spoke much about him.

[Hoopla]

Did I come in at a bad time or something or is this not a very talkative town?

Not sure, there's been patches of activity. This isn't one now. But I'll have a chat with you now, if you're online.

You didn't talk about any of your predecessor's posts, and rereading NAW, I've found some of his play rather perculiar. Perhaps you can give me your take on it?

--

There were a few posts during the period when I hadn't revealed my code that caught my eye. He initially voted me for encryting information, seemingly unsure how to address it. I take this next quote as NAW knowing Messiah and myself are both town, and is getting ahead of himself to catch a lie, and set up mislynches:

Interesting. So hoopla is claiming a daytime role. I'm going to focus on this, since it has the most information.
So, if we lynch messiah, and he flips town, we know that hoopla is scum. (good for us)
If we lynch messiah, and messiah is scum, then hoopla has a power role or he is scum who is trying to earn our trust. In the end, to me, a messiah lynch seems to be good for us, if for nothing more than info on hoopla.
Are there any flaws with my plan/logic?

His reaction to my code prior to this message, is actually the closest out of everyone to hiphop's play. He questioned it, voted it, knowing my assertions was false, knowing he could gain town credit either way it went.

--

Another point of interest is NAW's stance on hiphop's play;

To me, hiphop has said and done some scummy things, but I can't support a lynch on him yet because i feel that both AGM and Empking are clearly more deserving of a lynch today. My main beef with hiphop is his instance at the uselessness of day 1. To be fair he didn't say it like that, but I think that day one can bear some very useful info, especially later on down the line when we can try to catch scum in contradictions from the past.

NAW was one not on the hiphop wagon, and did fade away toward the end of D1 - the passage of time where hiphop was under fire most. This is a classic scum manoever - jumping in with suspicion, but making sure whatever is said doesn't further the wagon or case against him. This is evident with the subtle defenses of hiphop's play, while still casting suspicion. And of course by not throwing down a vote.

I don't know why I missed so much of this, but it looks bad.

--

Also, one more thing. Why are you using this as point against Empking, when NAW was guilty of this too?

- You weren't on the HipHop Wagon

[Hoopla]

And regarding the double-standard point, I was using that point against Empking in the Empking V CoolDog department if that makes sense. (If it doesn't, I'm sure I can find some way to...well..explain it)

That's valid, and we really should be lynching someone today who wasn't on hiphop's final wagon. That a far worse offense than any bussing scenario.

Vote: Deadline

Lets kill Empking.

[Hoopla]

I don't like how Looker has jumped off the Empking wagon after it got pushed to L-1. Don't be scared, lynching scum is fun.

[Hoopla]

Prod: Peabody, charlatan

REALLY need to hear again from Almaster, Sposh and Messiah.

[Hoopla]

Guys, we need a lynch. Some of us are going to have to make compromises to our second or even third choice, because we're going NOWHERE with this level of activity.

I don't understand what's happening - people are worried about lynching the wrong person, but we're already putting ourselves in a bad position with this much lurking. Come on, seriously. Lets lynch, we need more information.

We should be lynching someone NOT on hiphop's lynch, and Empking is by far and away the most obvious connection. I'm just going to keep repeating myself until people show up. This isn't fun. Are you all having fun?

[Hoopla]

I'm always queen of the town. If you be nice to me, I'll protect you and keep you as one of servants that feeds me grapes and various tropical fruits.

--

Once Looker decides to get back on Empking's wagon, we can get Messiah to hammer.

[Hoopla]

Here Almaster, I'll gift-wrap this one for you:

Empking's play serves to cast suspicion on hiphop, but never to further his wagon. This is scum-motivated because it keeps options open. It gives him a placeholder of suspicion he can revert back to, while continues to not seriously improve hiphop's chances of being lynched. This is quantified by Empking not voting hiphop (outside the RVS), while usually finding him suspect.

He keenly latches on to the Messiah bandwagon I ignite (here), but covertly hops off the wagon and fizzles into the background after hiphop starts coming under fire. Here is one of the key quotes;

Unvote

I still think Hiphop is more scummy than most but I have to say I don't like Peeabody's actions and how they effected the Messiah wagon.

Vote: Peabody

Empking then shortly after unvotes, but fails to place another vote. When quizzed about his lack of vote at the end of the day, this is what he said;

EBWODP:

@Empking: Why weren't you voting

at the end of

D1?

I didn't find anyone overly scummy.

Which seems to contradict the suspicion he laid out in his previous quote.

--

On top of all this, he lurks, doesn't help the town, and if we didn't have any other good suspicions I'd be pushing for his policy lynch. This is a win-win, guys.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, that's really annoying. I want to assess who my second choice is. It's probably Looker, but I'll give it a reread. Unless scum was given flavour safeclaims - sorry Empking.

Unvote

[Hoopla]

I still think we should be lynching someone off the hiphop wagon, ie; Looker.

IF there was bussing by scum, it was probably CoolDoG or charlatan. I see milkshake and Empking as mutually confirmed now by this flavour twist. This is also town points for Almaster, as I suspect he knew the claim was fake by the vanilla flavour.

I claim plain old vanilla ice cream.

LOL. Have a nice day.

Unvote. Vote: hiphop

GO HAMMAR GO.

Having said that, I don't think he claimed any flavour when he told us he was vanilla. Not sure.

[Hoopla]

unvote
vote empking

@Almaster & Peabody: One of us has to be right

What? Why?

[Hoopla]

Vote: cooldog

- claim time!

[Hoopla]

Hahahaha, if CoolDoG flips scum, you're going to be in a bit of trouble, Peabody.

[Hoopla]

Re: why is hoopla voting Cool?

I don't think I'll get the votes on Looker, and CoolDoG is a better than adequate back-up, really.

[Hoopla]

We should wait for him to claim first.

[Hoopla]

It doesn't feel right.

unvote
vote Milkshake

Flying by the seat of my pants here but I guess all I can do is wait for the claim

You do know that milkshake/Empking are essentially confirmed town together?

[Hoopla]

From this series of events...

It was pretty major, how did you miss it?

I am a Passive Astronaut AKA a vanilla townie.

Wow great, I just searched the whole thread and I couldn't find any reason Empking would know that the name of the VT role

before

the de-theme-ing was "Passive Astronaut." Of course, the whole reason the game wasn't supposed to be themed is so that this kind of flavor thing wouldn't happen.

unvote

and please please please tell me ASAP if I'm missing something.

[Hoopla]

Lol, what's with claiming vanilla icecream? That's exactly what hiphop did. Is that the go-to fakeclaim for scum or something?

[Hoopla]

But wouldn't that take three people to verify? Couldn't both Empking and Milk be corroborating with each other? This is all post-lynch speculation, though, of course. Let's see the verdict.

That would be a ridiculous scum gambit - they're obviously both town or both mafia. But why would both mafia expose themselves so extravagantly, this early in the game? Especially when it's likely there are many other townies to confirm this too.

[Hoopla]

O, okay, so you verify? That's cool. I just hadn't saw anyone else other than Milk and Empking to verify this.

I'm not verifying anything. Stop fishing.

I'm saying if there were other townies out there that had flavour that contradicted milkshake/Empking, they'd come out and expose them.

[Hoopla]

Vote: Looker

For being daft.

[Hoopla]

Daft? Howso, eternal birthday girl?

Empking claimed Passive Astronaut - how would he know that was the vanilla role PM without being a Passive Astronaut?

[Hoopla]

WAIT! U mean like Daft Punk?!? OMG I LUV THOSE GUYS!!!

Lol, don't make me throw something at you.

[Hoopla]

Charlatan: Can I get your opinions on Looker? Does she need to die?

[Hoopla]

A thought: If scum were given safe claims, or an insight into what the town PM's contained, why didn't hiphop use it when he claimed on Day 1?

[Hoopla]

Since we have a majority with Messiah expressing interest in a Looker lynch, she ought to claim. Please nobody hammer until we have sufficient conversation about her and other possibilities.

[Hoopla]

Alright then, nobody hammer. Currently going back and forth via PM with the Mod.

I look forward to hearing what you are allowed to say about the situation.

--

As a side note, is it weird that the roles are being flipped as 'town' and 'mafia'? milkshake or Empking, can you confirm that your newer role is just 'town'?

[Hoopla]

Unvote

for now.

I don't like how easy this feels. I want to think this over.

[Hoopla]

Al and Hoop...?

Hi Looker, how are you?

I'm thoroughly perplexed with how this game is unfolding. It upsets me that the game has degenrated to flavour-hunting over scum-hunting. I don't understand why Howard had to die - wasn't his flavour/role claim in stark contrast to Lookers? If so, why was he modkilled? Does this incriminate Looker? Everyone feel free to work it out (I am drunk and sleepy).

[Hoopla]

Wow great, I just searched the whole thread and I couldn't find any reason Empking would know that the name of the VT role

before

the de-theme-ing was "Passive Astronaut." Of course, the whole reason the game wasn't supposed to be themed is so that this kind of flavor thing wouldn't happen.

unvote

and please please please tell me ASAP if I'm missing something.

I think this is too genuine to fake. I would say this is a confirmed town post. If milkshake is mafia, he does a great job of acting.

100% agree, milkshake is confirmed in my eyes. There is no point lynching or suspecting him based on paranoia and the slim chances it was an act. We have far better chances of finding scum out of the remaining players.

Looker's play is odd and bizarre - we actually just played a game together (Mini 865). She replaced in after I had perished, but she ended up voting for the vigilante that had just shot mafia (me) the night before. I didn't get the logic behind it, but I don't think Looker is suspicious for chasing milkshake. Maybe just a little loopy.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, who do you think is scum?

I think I'm almost at the position where I can build an effective process of elimination case.

Town = Milkshake, Messiah
Unsure = Peabody
Probable scum = charlatan, Almaster, Looker

--

Milkshake is almost confirmed in my eyes, and I have a strong town read on Messiah I have no desire to articulate too heavily on.

I've only played one game with Peabody - we were both scum. He seems far more proactive this game. But this could just be a natural progression of his game, rather than town/scum differences. A reliable tell for newish players is voting a buddy early, then finding somewhere else for a vote - so I wouldn't rule Peabody out.

Charlatan has flown under my radar quite a bit, and I'll make a more detailed case about his play a bit later today. Almaster seems to be the popular choice for everyone, but again, I've played a game with him as town where his playstyle matched here. I think it's very possible he's a hot target for scum. As for Looker, she's loopy and detached from conventional logic which makes it easy for her to get away with anything. While it's not a specific tell her going after milkshake, NAW's play and voting patterns were quite fishy to me. Looker has a better than random chance of being scum, but with the added bonus if she is town, we get rid of someone who would be unreliable in lylo type situations.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla has largely gotten a free pass, mostly due to the fact that Day 1 her gambit was helpful to the town. Since then she has, for the most part, only chimed in to try and play town leader -- and has consistently helped steer lynches towards townie deaths. At this point, I'm much less inclined to believe that's a coincidence. Her very casual "clearing" of Messiah is problematic: saying she's got a very strong read that she doesn't feel like explaining is a good way to protect a scum buddy or to buddy up to a townie. Now that we're getting into a smaller pool of players, it's time to take a closer look at individuals.

Lol, we've had

one

mislynch so far. My premium suspect was Empking - the only wagon I claim credit for steering (who didn't get lynched). CoolDoG was a second tier choice for me, and I don't think I steered that wagon at all.

I understand your paranoia though, and it raises an interesting point to me, that I have come under little suspicion after getting hiphop lynched - but haven't been nightkilled either. I feel like my reads are off, and scum are manipulating my influence for their benefit. I'm a little confused why more players aren't up in my grill.

[Hoopla]

Hi. This next post will be dealing with some vote-count analysis, perhaps the most effective, consistent way of catching scum. Please don't dismiss this as wifom, because it is

not

.

hiphop

(7):

Sposh

, Peabody, Hoopla,

CooLDoG

, charlatan,

milkshake

, AlmasterGM

AlmasterGM (2): Looker, Messiah
Peabody (1):

hiphop

Not Voting (2):

Coco

,

Empking

Current thinking:

There is probably two scum left, and I don't think they were both bussing hiphop, nor do I think they were both voting Almaster. I deem it a strong chance there is one scum on the hiphop wagon, one off.

The casual observer may interpret this as merely a guess, but I put a lot of stock in my theory about a collective consciousness as scum. It's a psychological effect that warps scum's play - they subliminally tailor their play to comply with what they deem as appropriate stances for townies to take, but they have the added goal of not being tied with each other in the event of one of them dying. In this sense, it's very impractical for all scum to share the same views, as this creates strong ties. Many scumteams will spread their suspicions enough to blend in and minimise/muddle ties.

This vote count I've shown is very informative. I seriously doubt Looker/Messiah are both scum together (this is even without factoring my town read on Messiah). I also doubt both scum bussed, but to a lesser degree. I also think this is a strong town tell for Peabody, which is where hiphop left his vote at the end. Usually this is a good tell by an inexperienced scum player - they're trying to divert attention from themself and get a wagon on someone else (usually town). At the time of hiphop's vote, he only had 3 people on him, so I don't consider this an attempt to distance himself from Peabody.

--

I'm going to talk about some more vote-counts soon, but my preference for lynch is charlatan. I'm having trouble quantifying my gut read due to his large walls of text, but I endeavor to fix this through some more vote-count and wagon analysis.

Also. We are NOT lynching Peabody today. If I can't get charlatan, Looker will do, as this lynch will be very informative of Messiah's alignment.

[Hoopla]

It's best if you try to run up a vote on someone for reasons other than fuzzy logic about psychology, like evidence. Vote analysis certainly has its place, but so far you're doin' it wrong. This can be manipulated any way you see fit, which bothers me a bit.

What evidence do you find in games of mafia? Every scumtell you've ever used is based on guess work to some degree, and a leap of logic about psychology. I'm trying to articulate a gut read I have on you which I'm finding hard to do. It is a combination of process of elimination and wagon positions.

--

For instance, if you're playing a probability game, why not shoot for either Looker or Messiah, since by your guess there's a 50/50 of hitting scum there? Or a 100%, since you said you pretty much accept Messiah as town?
You expect others to follow you to a 25% lynch but paint it as an equally good choice for two reasons:

This is valid, and I probably wasn't very clear in regards to this point. I factor in process of elimination to determine the possibilities. For example, there is almost no way Looker/Messiah are scum together, but there is a small chance they're both town, and both scum were bussing hiphop.

I see hiphop either being bussed by one or two scum, with a 75/25 preference for one. I know you think I am manipulating data to fit my suspicions, but I feel very confident about this, and am probably failing to explain my methods properly (I want to try again soon). I find it difficult to comprehend any scum teams without you on it, sorry. =/

Peabody is town guys, get off his wagon.

[Hoopla]

What evidence do you find in games of mafia? Every scumtell you've ever used is based on guess work to some degree, and a leap of logic about psychology. I'm trying to articulate a gut read I have on you which I'm finding hard to do. It is a combination of process of elimination and wagon positions.

This made me LOL.

Can we lynch Looker now?

Would you like to lynch charlatan with me?

[Hoopla]

Would you like to lynch charlatan with me?

It's not on the top of my priority list, but if I can't have Looker, I'd be down with that.

Okay. I'll get Peabody and milkshake to help us out.

[Hoopla]

But I don't think Peabody is scum, and I know I'm not scum. It leaves you and Almaster on hiphop's wagon, and Looker/Messiah off the wagon. I'd rather lynch from that pool. I get your point about taking myself out of suspicion - but I am not going to suspect myself. Others can do that. I think there is more chance of scum being on hiphop's wagon. That's why I want to lynch from there.

Whoever's wagon I'm trying to derail (if I'm scum), why wouldn't I just hammer Looker or Peabody? I've expressed enough suspicion on each of them to get away with it.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, I'm not convinced Charlatan is mafia, however I admit that I haven't really considered the possibility too much.

I agree he hasn't done anything too scummy - he's a good enough player not to leave too much - and my read is more based on my other town reads. There are not many other places I can see scum.

[Hoopla]

Did you inadvertently leave me off of this list, or has something changed since post 799?

You are one of my top picks in that I firmly believe either you or Looker to be scum. However, of the two of you, I find her more likely. The fact that I have been grilling you extra hard lately is not indicative of how highly I suspect you -- rather, I wanted to see more reactions from your corner and did as I always do in that situation.

Do you believe Looker and Messiah can be scum together?

[Hoopla]

Do you believe Looker and Messiah can be scum together?

Yes, but it seems very unlikely that they'd vote the way they would have had to on Day 1 for that to be the case. I find Looker very scummy and Messiah slightly scummy independently of each other, but as a pair they simply don't make much sense.

What about them both being town?

[Hoopla]

Yay.

[Hoopla]

A better idea to toy with is we organise a lynch as normal, but when we decide who that is, if the doctor has protected that person, or that person is the doctor they should claim. If nobody claims we assume whoever is being lynched isn't confirmed, but we still protect the identity of the doctor. Thoughts?

[Hoopla]

But if we mislynch, scum just need a correct kill to win. The doctor has a very slim chance of catching that, when it can be any townie. We're best off trying to improve our chances of lynching today as much as possible.

[Hoopla]

That's two players who have decided that the other is town and removing them from the endgame equation, neither of whom has expressed interest in explaining their reads to the town, though making a strong case for an unconfirmed player as town would certainly help us out. I've even asked Hoopla explicitly to share details.

Mmm valid point, I can understand why this looks odd, but my town read isn't as strong as before now due to Looker's town flip. You'll remember some of reasoning was based believing both scum didn't bus.

hiphop

(7):

Sposh

, Peabody, Hoopla,

CooLDoG

, charlatan,

milkshake

, AlmasterGM

AlmasterGM (2):

Looker

, Messiah
Peabody (1):

hiphop

Not Voting (2):

Coco

,

Empking

Messiah is left as the only one alive off the hiphop wagon, however I'm starting to believe the scumteam cannot be without charlatan somewhere. Peabody doesn't seem like a clever option due to hiphop's vote being on him (and it not coming at a time to believe it to be distancing).

--

Right now I'm thinking we should have a psuedo-massclaim today. Only the doctor should not claim - maybe we can do it like: not town powerrole other than doctor/town powerrole other than doctor. Thoughts on this? Every bit of information is vital now, because we

have

to lynch correctly.

[Hoopla]

Charlatan/Almaster is the only genuine scumpair I can see - maybe Charlatan/Peabody or a combination of Messiah and those two (with charlatan obviously likelier). Today I won't be lynching anyone else I don't think without substancial evidence disproving me.

[Hoopla]

Is there a chance Messiah and I are scum together, charlatan?

[Hoopla]

Right now I'm thinking we should have a psuedo-massclaim today. Only the doctor should not claim - maybe we can do it like: not town powerrole other than doctor/town powerrole other than doctor. Thoughts on this? Every bit of information is vital now, because we

have

to lynch correctly.

Oh, and unless I confused about what you're suggesting, this would out the doctor in the event that there is only a doctor, which is a high possibility.

But, it doesn't if we make sure doctor claims as 'not town powerrole other than doctor'. Looks like I didn't word it right, but I mean everyone should claim just town, if they're doctor/town, and only claim a powerrole other than doctor.

[Hoopla]

Unless anyone disagrees or has better ideas, I'd really like you to begin the claims and then popcorn from there. First we should wait until the others turn up though - who would you like to claim first if given the choice?

[Hoopla]

For what it's worth, I have a plan to either catch you or partially clear you - so I'd much rather you went first if it's okay. (And yes, I know. Don't worry, it will happen.)

Now we play the waiting game, and see what everyone else wants to do.

[Hoopla]

I already claimed so I have no opinion on whether or not a massclaim occurs. I vote charlatan goes first.

You agree that it should be a massclaim minus the doctor though, right - and if we have one they should just claim as regular town?

[Hoopla]

Roger that. I am not a town powerrole other than doctor.

Who's next?

[Hoopla]

I am not a town powerrole other than doctor. Messiah is next.

[Hoopla]

Nope, that's it Peabody and this is great news! I had a strong inkling that were we playing in a 2:10 (2 mafia, 9 town, 1 doctor) set-up, and I am very sure of this now.

For what it's worth, I have a plan to either catch you or partially clear you - so I'd much rather you went first if it's okay. (And yes, I know. Don't worry, it will happen.)

Now we play the waiting game, and see what everyone else wants to do.

This wasn't a true statement at all. At the time I was strongly thinking charlatan was scum, and hinted in this post that I had some sort of evidence. This was designed to dissuade him from fake-claiming a powerrole (if he was scum) so we could get a more accurate idea of the set-up we're in.

Now that I believe we're in a 2:10, this drastically changes things and incriminates Messiah quite badly. He is the only player alive not on hiphop's D1 wagon, which is a much bigger scumtell if he only has one buddy. I will post a most detailed case articulating some more of my reasoning shortly.

[Hoopla]

I only agree due to the game being completely flipped on it's head.

--

2:10 is actually scum biased, with town's actually

never

winning a mountainous game. Throw in a doc and it feels fairly balanced imo. Here's two games (Hoopla's Seaside, Open 124) that featured 2:10 (with a doc), both resulting in scum wins. I could dig up some more games if you really want me to, but 2:10 even with a doctor is scum balanced.

3:9 with just a doctor is RIDICULOUS and not even worth considering. Lobstermania may be a new mod, but he isn't an idiot.

Bonus link! A great MD thread talking about 2:10 games and stats.

[Hoopla]

If it's true we have two mislynches and aren't actually in lylo right now.

[Hoopla]

Another point that helps the 2:10 theory is I doubt lobstermania would have ended the day without a lynch AND modkilled a town player if this was anything but a 2:10 set-up. That seems like more of a rebalancing act than anything else.

--

I've been pondering the reason why I haven't been nightkilled so far, because I feel like I've been quite pro-town - and my theory is because I'd almost entirely wrote off Messiah from my list of candidates. It sounds wifomy, but I think him keeping me alive was his away to subliminally exert his influence if he knew I'd continue organising lynches and being wrong.

Another great tell I picked up is his extremely detailed case about Sposh that everyone seems to have forgotten about. Then he chose to nightkill him off. This is a scum tactic I've seen used before, because it effectively cleans your 'suspicion slate' and gives you an excuse to go somewhere else the next day without getting blood on your hands from a mislynch.

[Hoopla]

Erm, not to my knowledge. Town would very rarely win 3:9 games if they were all vanilla. We're talking about 2:10 vanilla set-ups there.

[Hoopla]

I have not seen a mini normal run here (with 3 scum) with less than 3 town powerroles.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, important question time. I think it's fair to say (correct me if you disagree) that a huge part of your strategy this game has been to aim for scum off of hiphop's Day 1 bandwagon. If hiphop had flipped town rather than scum, would this have changed your approach? If so, how? If not, why not?

I wouldn't say a huge part - but vote and wagon analysis is certainly one of the most effective ways of catching scum because it's a very visual representation of collective suspicions. It's easy to see what everyone thinks via this mechanic. If hiphop flipped town rather than scum, it completely changes the game. You can formulate theories far better working with confirmed scum than confirmed town.

--

There's a paradox in game theory where doing something seemingly damaging to your team's chances can actually improve them. Bussing is the most obvious example of this. It is detrimental losing a team mate, but town knows this and assume scum won't do this. But scum know this and can sometimes exploit this. It's an ever evolving, back-and-forth tug of war. Once something gets identified as pro-town, scum will inevitably try and exploit it.

The thing about this game is though, bussing hiphop (if there is only 2 scum)

does not

have a viable risk/reward scenario, as on Day 1 hiphop's partner does not know if there is an SK or even another scum team. While bussing in a vanilla 2:10 set-up does make sense, scum had no way of knowing it, and gambling on this issue is nonsensicle and

does not

improve their win condition by damaging it.

I find it very difficult to fathom Peabody is hiphop's partner based on this - it doesn't make sense to be on the wagon that early, and then for hiphop counter-bus him back in an attempt to defuse his own wagon. This doesn't have anything to do with their ability to bus, more so the state of the game from a mafia perspective Day 1. When Peabody chased hiphop, he certainly wasn't close to lynch - that honour was still up for grabs. I refuse to believe Peabody is scum.

[Hoopla]

I'm actually a bit surprised at how much this answer sways me. You've repeatedly stated that we should be lynching off of that Day 1 wagon, and seemed to place a lot of stock in it. My concern is that, in the event that you're scum who voted hiphop, that's a very safe way to direct attention elsewhere. The more people that have died off of that wagon (now everyone except Messiah), the more I have found it plausible that all of the scum (whether it's just one or two, which I thought was more likely until you posted the thread about 10:2 setups) had been on the original wagon.

Charlatan, the game is completely different if there is two scum, rather than three. The mentality of a 2-player scumteam is about survival because your partner being lynched (especially Day 1) drastically reduces your chance to win. Scum teams are more likely to bus when they have a third player. And I am really struggling to believe we could possibly be in a 3:9 set-up.

So, in a lot of games you see people try to narrow the pool of suspects by limiting their votes to people on or off certain wagons (usually Day 1 wagons), because typically you won't see all scum vote as a block. However, that is exactly what you did as scum in Mini 865, (all scum on the wagon Day 1) in which you guys steamrolled the town in three days. Seems a perfectly viable option for scum to vote as a block these days since, as you said, scum will use town expectations against them. I also believe you're perfectly capable of pulling that sort of thing off, and it made sense to think you might think to do so as scum this time around.

Yes, voting as a block as scum can be quite effective - in /invitational 4 the five scum all voted in a row on someone's bandwagon (although they did end up losing). Perhaps this tactic is coming into vogue. But like any other tell, once scum start doing it more often than expected town consider it a scumtell and it becomes a bad play for scum again. It's a funny kind of cycle.

Most of my reasoning for this game has been on predicting the patterns of a 3-player scumteam. We now (almost certainly) know this is wrong, which is why I have had to overturn previous reads, because I'm looking for a completely new set of tells.

I don't see how I am a logical choice for hiphop's buddy. Bussing him so hard would be a ridiculous gamble to take - I would almost certainly lose the game if there was an SK or another scum group, which is probably more likely than 2:10 vanilla. It's just a stupid risk that only benefits me in one scenario out of three.

[Hoopla]

Charlatan, the game is completely different if there is two scum, rather than three. The mentality of a 2-player scumteam is about survival because your partner being lynched (especially Day 1) drastically reduces your chance to win. Scum teams are more likely to bus when they have a third player. And I am really struggling to believe we could possibly be in a 3:9 set-up.

Meh. In my first newbie I bussed and hammered my partner D1 and won.

2:7 is completely different from 2:10 - especially when you consider the set-up is already known. You cannot know in a closed set-up that it is 2:10 before you bus.

[Hoopla]

True. So are we lynching Messiah?

I'm ridiculously tired right now, but yes. I can really not see any other lynch today. I don't want to lynch yet though, because I still have a few more thoughts about this game (and I need to answer charlatan). Goodnight!

[Hoopla]

I don't see how I am a logical choice for hiphop's buddy. Bussing him so hard would be a ridiculous gamble to take - I would almost certainly lose the game if there was an SK or another scum group, which is probably more likely than 2:10 vanilla. It's just a stupid risk that only benefits me in one scenario out of three.

That is largely my point -- I have been thinking of a 3 person scumteam as well, so I'm also re-evaluating. I'd still like to hear your thoughts on Messiah as town in a hypothetical 3-scum setup.

My thoughts on this was based on his reaction to wagon - and the way hiphop reacted too. A part of it was also that I doubted that the two players central to the gambit could be scum. Confirmation bias then kicked in, which is something I've been trying to fix in my town game.

[Hoopla]

My thoughts on this was based on his reaction to wagon - and the way hiphop reacted too. A part of it was also that I doubted that the two players central to the gambit could be scum. Confirmation bias then kicked in, which is something I've been trying to fix in my town game.

I expected somewhat more, since you were so hesitant to expound upon your read (three sentences doesn't seem that time consuming.) But it's sound logic and not really a concern for me; I agree that Messiah is the right lynch and think we're ready to put this one away.

I could have gone into more thorough detail - but it would have been mostly from those topics. I was feeling lazy.

[Hoopla]

Have we won?

[Hoopla]

Hmm, well I have no reason to believe you'd be lying now. For me, it narrows it to charlatan/Almaster - I'm kind of surprised how convinced I was it was you.

[Hoopla]

FWIW, I agree with your reasoning behind not suspecting Peabody and I still think Almaster is the remaining scum.

Sorry for killing you. Do you have any other thoughts you want to leave with us?

[Hoopla]

doc tor

[Hoopla]

Wow, I really didn't see that coming. I'd almost convinced myself that there were only two mafia. Well done scumbags, you finished the game off well despite being in a horrible position with confirmed townies all over the place.

I also think this is the last time I make process of elimination cases based on what makes sense balance-wise (or at least for untested mods). Lobstermania, 3:9 with just a doctor is horribly unbalanced. The only reason the town stayed in the game (and ahead for a while) was due to confirming innocents (which shouldn't have happened). It's your first time modding so I won't be too critical - these mistakes will help you learn for the future. But all mods (especially first time mods) should get their reviews checked for balance or any holes, as it makes it unfair on one team from the beginning.

Overall, I had a lot of fun, but I feel like I lost the game on the last day by persuading the town into believing there was only one mafia player left. Things would have been completely different and I definitely would have gone after charlatan.

--

Charlatan: You said in the quicktopic that milkshake wasn't confirmed which is true, but he was confirmed to me. So I invested a lot of time in keeping that status unchallenged. That was perhaps my biggest doctor tell I let slip, but it was for a worthwhile reason.

--

Why did you make that last "doc tor" post, Hoopla?

A last ditch effort to wifom scum out of killing me, because I thought I was going to die that night.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, sorry for bussing you hiphop, but I felt it was very natural to bus you.


Good games all!

I probably shouldn't have given you as much town credit as I did, knowing how Cyberbob and I raised you as scum in mini 836. It was mostly in a 2:10 set-up where Peabody scum didn't make sense. Your bus was very good, but what sold it was hiphop counterbussing you back, which can sometimes be a reliable town tell.

[Hoopla]

In hindsight, we could have opted to play it safer as town.

We all believed we were dealing with a 2-man scum team, which meant we had a second lynch up our sleeve if we misfired. Because of the back-up chance, we should have played for a 3-player scum team to cover all our bases, in which case it would have likely been charlatan. I'm not sure if I would have picked Peabody at the end, but it would have been a way to prevent an auto-loss like that and give us a chance if we were playing in a 3 mafia set-up.