Mini 885 - Boom, Game Gutshot/Abandoned by Mod!


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Post Post #6 (isolation #0) » Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:48 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

I'm here.
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Post Post #18 (isolation #1) » Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:07 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

vote:5cvm


Only scum know who other scum are.

btw, Random.org supports this vote. =P
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Post Post #22 (isolation #2) » Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:43 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

@5cvm: You know what I meant. -.-

@TheButtonmen: Was going to vote for him using the 'only scum know who other scum are' but decided to go to random.org for guidance, and it returned 9, 5cvm's position in the list in the first post.
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Post Post #25 (isolation #3) » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:05 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

@xvart: You don't buy it? Haha, that's fine. Assume it wasn't coincidence, so that leaves me voting for 5cvm for the same reason as Aranfan, only
I
decide to throw in a lie for good measure. :wink:
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Post Post #40 (isolation #4) » Fri Nov 20, 2009 3:17 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

@5cvm: Why is buttonmen scum?

@Seregil: What do you think of 5cvm's claims of people being scum and his vote switching?
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Post Post #52 (isolation #5) » Sat Nov 21, 2009 4:33 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

@5cvm: Wanna tell me who milkshake is? =P Also, why are you outing your scumbuddies?

@xvart: I'm still curious--you accepting the coincidence or was i lying?

So magis has one post, evil has two, confid has one, and rite hasn't posted at all. AKA a third of our group is slacking -.-
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Post Post #58 (isolation #6) » Sat Nov 21, 2009 7:49 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

ConfidAnon wrote:Wierdest start to a game I've played in by far, but nothign scummy yet, just sounds like a bunch of goofing around.
What do you find weird about our start?
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Post Post #97 (isolation #7) » Sun Nov 22, 2009 3:47 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

TheButtonmen wrote:A couple of things, first of all the vote for
Xvart
was done because at the time he seemed the scummiest (note, the scummiest not I thought he was scum) and wanted to see his reaction.
What in particular made him seem scummy?
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Post Post #118 (isolation #8) » Mon Nov 23, 2009 4:11 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

TheButtonmen wrote:@ A_
Squirrel
, Xvart vote for you is what caught my interest, it seemed like a nonrandom vote and I didn't like the reasoning.
Why did you use
Then clearly this means I must join the voting game and bus him!
as your reason for voting him?

What did you think about the random.org coincidence?

Why didn't you say anything about his reasoning?
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Post Post #126 (isolation #9) » Tue Nov 24, 2009 10:04 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

@rite and hitogoroshi:
Same question for both of you. What makes you think 5cvm is a townie screwing around?
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Post Post #129 (isolation #10) » Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:38 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

TheButtonmen wrote:
A_Squirrel wrote:What makes you think 5cvm is a townie screwing around?
I assume town because he hasn't had any scum tells yet*

*Sounds crazy i know but Milkshake(5cvms main) clearly made the 5cvm to fuck around, I think his terribad playstyle is likely independent of his alignment.
Thanks for answering the question, but I wasn't really looking for an answer from you. =P

But, if you would do me a favor and answer these:
A_Squirrel wrote:
TheButtonmen wrote:@ A_
Squirrel
, Xvart vote for you is what caught my interest, it seemed like a nonrandom vote and I didn't like the reasoning.
Why did you use
Then clearly this means I must join the voting game and bus him!
as your reason for voting him?

What did you think about the random.org coincidence?

Why didn't you say anything about his reasoning?
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Post Post #148 (isolation #11) » Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:34 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Okay, I'm not going to wait for hitogoroshi since I just want to comment on something about 5cvm that's been bothering me. I originally asked rite and hitogoroshi since they both said they thought 5cvm was a townie screwing around. Afterwards, ConfidAnon and Buttonmen also voiced the same opinion.
Now, we pretty much know 5cvm is an alt; milkshake posted in the thread right before 5cvm and both of them said the same thing. If you look at milkshake's posts, he's pretty normal. But if you look at 5cvm's posts, everything is just screwing around. So if in fact the account was made to mess around, I feel as if his play style would be independent of his actual role. Since regardless of what he is, I can't think of anything that he could have done to jerk us around more.
If we agree that his style is independent, then the problem is that since everyone had the same chance of being scum when roles were being decided, there is a chance that he is scum which everyone seems to be glossing over. Yes, it's unlikely, but you still have to keep it in mind since with the way he's playing, he isn't really giving us much information.

@Confidanon: Was the game with PRs and weird roles here?

@Chibosempai:
1) I've only played here once, so I don't have that great of an idea how certain roles play. However, I'd guess that I'd enjoy playing as either a vanilla townie or mafia goon.
2)Assuming there have been no other no lynches, I'd try to push for a lynch, though a no lynch is acceptable (it doesn't change the number of lynches town gets). However, what it does do is move one lynch from the beginning to the very end where scum votes hold more power (since there are fewer people in general). Given that there's not much time, I doubt I'd be able to start and finish another wagon, so I'd have to vote for the person who I felt was scummiest and could actually get lynched.
3)Forum mafia, this would be my...second.

@Buttonmen: You wanted to get a response from Xvart. So you joke voted Xvart, when he had already responded to 5cvm's joke vote? O.o
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Post Post #166 (isolation #12) » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:45 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Sorry guys, I'm here, just not much to say. Need some time to filter the last few pages through my head, and will have reduced activity for the next few days. If all goes well, I should be back to normal Thursday or Friday.
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Post Post #217 (isolation #13) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 11:21 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

ConfidAnon wrote:
Seregil, 153 wrote:First, unvote as it was a random vote.

I'll follow up on my last post. Of Confid and Chibo I find Chibo more suspicious. When I last made notes he said (p3 somewhere) "I don't like xvart's replies."

I didn't find anything wrong with them so maybe Chibo was trying to make xvart seem more suspicous at a time where he was being questioned by others.

Vote Chibo
I don't like this post.
The second section sounds like your setting up an ultimatum of "One of Confid/Chibo is scum."
Scum could easily do this, try to get one lynched, and then when they flip town say that the other (presumably town) gets lynched as well.
Explain the bolded section please. I fail to see how Seregil sets up a dichotomy.
Seregil wrote:
xvart wrote:I don't see what the big deal about Seregil's comment
I don't either. Perhaps instead of looking at Chibo and Confid I should be looking at Chibo and hito?
Why drop Confid in favor of Hito?
ConfidAnon wrote:Gotta love that avoidance of a question. You can find multiple people suspicious at one time, but I find it odd that you group us together and single us out for no given reason.
Correct. But finding two people scummy does not set up a dichotomy. Person A and Person B are scummy != Either A or B are scum.
Humble Poirot wrote:A_Squirrel: Okay. I cheated here. Hearing the same argument that Aranfan used. I went to see who had issued it first (I can see that there might be some sort of unfairness in the order in wich I read the ISOs but I think I can work around it objectively, especially if I reread the whole game later)
It appears that A_squirrel just mimicked Aranfan. But not only that. He claimed it was from random.org. This I find scummy. The need to "blame" the votes on someone else looks like a preemptive defense mechanism. His explanation for this is unsatisfying. Then I see of a lot that looks like scumhunting. I like it from there so I will call it a null-tell and watch it from here. He doesn't seem to push to much but that may be his playstyle.
I stand by my earlier explanation. And in case you didn't notice, Aranfan and I posted at the same time. No mimicking. Also, do you see anything that you feel I should have pushed?
Xvart wrote:When we lynch TheButtonmen and he flips scum, the first place I'm looking is A_Squirrel since he not only random votes but also justifies it as actually being random based on a website.
So button is number one on your list(and you're sure he's scum), and I am number two? And my position is based on the earlier coincidence , which you said was a null and would be filed away for later? So what changed your mind?

@Hitogoroshi
:
Was post Seregil's response satisfactory? You gave him an ultimatum and then ignored him.
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Post Post #232 (isolation #14) » Sat Dec 05, 2009 1:57 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

Seregil wrote: I found Confid's logic on this point bizarre and then someone else jumps in to agree with it. Therefore I began to wonder about hito.
Again, why'd you drop Confid?

@Hitorogoshi, also again:

What happened to your ultimatum to Seregil? Are you satisfied with his response?
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Post Post #252 (isolation #15) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:37 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

ConfidAnon wrote:And if he would have come out and said that he found those two scummy in the original post, it would have been fine. However, he did not. Now I can't argue whether that was the original intention or not, but this point has been argued enough now. Not enough to lynch someone over at the present time.
Show me the dichotomy. I would like to see it.
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Post Post #256 (isolation #16) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:30 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Mod, can we get a vote count please?

Also,
unvote
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Post Post #261 (isolation #17) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:53 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

hitogoroshi wrote:Err, wait, with a majority it's SEVEN to lynch, isn't it? We need more 5cvm votes. And also I don't know why I bothered to ask him to claim since he's just going to say scum.
You're pushing this 5cvm wagon hard eh? :wink:
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Post Post #277 (isolation #18) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 2:15 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

ConfidAnon wrote:
A_Squirrel, 252 wrote:Show me the dichotomy. I would like to see it.
Reading the thread is key to success. Do it more. Here ya go.
Oh I hadn't realized. Up until now I've just been posting whatever arbitrary remarks I had felt like posting. =P
Now obviously what I see in that post is different from what you see, because I dont see a dichotomy. So please explain to me how that post sets up a "either A or B is scum, therefore we lynch one and if he flips town, we lynch the other."

Also, welcome Scott, look forward to your remarks.
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Post Post #295 (isolation #19) » Wed Dec 09, 2009 1:30 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

hitogoroshi wrote:Most of the suspicion on gorrilaz is based on the fact that he apparently likes 5cvm's play but has yet to defend his reasoning. But that's a lot of what-if that will condense into something far more tangible when 5cvm flips.
Doesn't have to be delayed. If 5cvm flips town, then ______________. If 5cvm flips scum, then ________________.
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Post Post #297 (isolation #20) » Wed Dec 09, 2009 1:47 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

No that's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that you can assume that knowledge to make a guess. Like those what-if statements you were talking about earlier. Except that you sort of pushed them away as if we needed the lynch first. Only we don't. And I just don't see the connection between the two, so I'm asking you to explain further. If 5cvm flips town, what does that say about evil? And if 5cvm flips scum, what does that say about evil?
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Post Post #330 (isolation #21) » Sat Dec 12, 2009 3:40 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Scott Brosius wrote: This whole post reeks of you KNOWING 5cvm is going to flip town. I don't think a townie would be so confident in this
I'm not seeing this, could you explain please?

Expect less activity from me this week. Exams.
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Post Post #381 (isolation #22) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:04 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Hito, you've probably already stated this somewhere, but I just want to make sure, given 5cvm's change in posting, you still think he's antitown and want to go for the policy lynch? I mean, there's less "LOLOLOL ______ and ______ are my scumbuddies" and we are getting some comments out of him.
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Post Post #405 (isolation #23) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 4:48 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Civil Scum wrote:I realize it can't be both sides of the scvm deal the way I'm looking at it, or totally one side etc, and I can't be sure which is which until people on either end start to die.
unvote

vote: hitorogoshi

I'm not throwing brosius completely out of the window, but a major piece of people's case against him looks equally bad for hito.

Who: 1) Admitted to being behind in reading the game in the same post that he started pushing for the scvm policy lynch.

2) Has pursued the policy lynch and its attendant arguments in lieu of all other scum-hunting efforts.

3) Was too comfortable letting Brosius tail him around for the better part of brosius' time in the game

4) Who has only taken one position on anything the entire game.
'Just because other people are taking the RVS too seriously doesn't mean I have to'

5) Scummiest----> Arguing against anyone "pro-scvm", but never thinking it scummy of any of them.
Dont forget he also joined the bs dichotomy questioning of seregil.

Also, welcome to our replacements. Good luck and have fun.
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Post Post #428 (isolation #24) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 4:02 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

Buttonmen, can you repeat your reasoning for Aran being scum? It's kind of scattered among your posts and buried under the 5cvm discussion.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #25) » Tue Dec 29, 2009 12:45 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

Tommy wrote:
Civil Scum wrote:Odd that brosius jumped all over gorillaz for thinking that scvm=townie but was fine with humble saying that he knew it for a fact.
When did Humble say that?
Post 370. Maybe elsewhere as well.

Also, Tommy, what are your thoughts on post 157?
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Post Post #459 (isolation #26) » Thu Dec 31, 2009 12:03 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

Are you treating 5cvm as confirmed town forever?

No. I think I'll treat him as someone who claimed scum early game, threw around some bs and then seems to have sobered up.

If not, what would it take to get you to lynch him?

I don't know honestly.

Would you ignore all of your other scum reads on another day to lynch him?Or are you convinced you can divine 'scum reads' from a player who is actively claiming scum? What action could 5cvm do that you would consider scummy?

As you've pointed out, 5cvm's continued existence will be somewhat problematic later on (for me at least). I don't look forward to picking between him and someone else, especially since after a quick read of him I can't confidently see anything significant in his posts along the lines of what humble in particular sees (and claims to indicate townie-hood). At the same time, I'm hesitant to rely on what others claim to see, and while I do see some sense to what 5cvm has done, I don't like it at all. This whole alt and bulling into the game business doesn't sit well with me at all. However, I don't think that you've gone about this particularly well. It's interesting to me at least, that you said:
Hitogoroshi wrote: I'm not here to look good. I'm here to lynch an anti-town player.
This just feels off--you seem to be pushing this way too hard as others have pointed out. You're correct to a point in that townies shouldn't be that concerned about looking scummy/bad/whatever, but the idea that you're here to lynch an anti-town player instead of scum is wrong. If your policy lynch fizzles (which doesn't seem to be that rare on this site) you should be willing to accept it and move on to scum hunting, and since you've presumably gathered information on other players through the policy lynch discussion, this shouldn't be as hard of a step as it seems to be for you.

Also,
Boxman, can we get a vote count?
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Post Post #473 (isolation #27) » Sat Jan 02, 2010 10:21 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Anyone want to tell Aran what he's being voted for? As far as I can tell it's a combination of stupid moves, like attempting to get magis lynched before he could be replaced, and general coasting?

Also, honestly, I think I'd prefer to deal with 5cvm today rather than later. If it gets down to a lylo situation he will definitely be a problem for me. Obviously some of you are seeing things I'm not if you're comfortable with letting him go.

Vote: 5cvm
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Post Post #487 (isolation #28) » Mon Jan 04, 2010 5:14 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Aranfan wrote:In my experience, lurking has been equal to not playing.
So would you do something like that again (push for the lynch of a lurker about to be replaced)?
Aranfan wrote:I still think 5cvm is a jester. And I did explain: Hito had convinced me with his arguments that it was all around better (more fun and easier on the town) to lynch the jester than to let him live.
So you think 5cvm is a jester, but still want to lynch him. Can you explain how that makes sense to me, cus I'm just not seeing it.
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Post Post #528 (isolation #29) » Wed Jan 06, 2010 5:31 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

So a quick rundown of the current issues.

Aranfan's actions seem to me to be more the result of inexperience rather than being scum. I find it hard to believe that scum would slip up on a quick lynch attempt like the lynch magis before he's replaced thing. But that does assume a certain level of competence/experience which clashes with aranfan being inexperienced.

The hand holding by a few players regarding Aranfan is also very odd imo. So what we've done is put pressure on Aranfan for various reasons, and then we've literally told him what to do so as to not be lynched. Typically, you would want to see the player's own reaction, which in this case seems to be confusion/bewilderment/not knowing what to do, instead of guiding them through the process of how not to get lynched. Honestly, I'd be more satisfied with him giving his actual thoughts, even if they don't contribute to the EG wagon. Taking the easy road out and voting the only other realistic lynch today doesn't strike me as a town move, given that for an individual non-power townie, survival is not the number one goal (though it certainly helps to not act like a total scumbag). This applies to EG as well, though he hasn't had the hand holding that Aran has. Related is Aran's suspicion of Button. I'll need to look for any indications of a previous suspicion.

The rite/brosius slot seriously needs examination, the almost mandatory huge post/analysis and subsequent high activity by the replacement are going to be a nice way for scum to hide.

I'm hoping we get a decent activity level these next two days, so that any last minute questions/thoughts can be presented before we get cut off.

Before putting my thoughts down, I was more willing to lynch EG based on my impression of him being pop in, make a few comments, V/LA, pop in, make a few comments, and so on. However, I'm more satisfied with EG's independent thought, and given that my previous mental defense of Aran was based on inexperience rather than scumminess and pretty much glossed over the possibility of inexperienced scum, I'm leaning Aranfan right now. However, I would like to look at both players one more time (hopefully this afternoon). Thoughts on other players will have to come after that.
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Post Post #531 (isolation #30) » Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:36 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Hito wrote:In a attempt to get him to provide content. You are right that it's hand-holding, and I think that we can all agree that if we can literally tell Aranfan what to do, and he doesn't do it, there shouldn't be any qualms lynching that slot.
Right. Thing is, it cuts out the part where he needs to figure out how to save his own skin and then actually do that. I would rather not influence a player's thought process when I'm looking at their behavior (which is why I pointed the hand holding out as odd). But if we assume that Aran really is flustered and doesn't have any clue as to how to save his bacon, then I can let it go since having a player go irrational/suicidal at the prospect of being lynched isn't very useful either.

I see nothing to indicate Aran suspecting Button besides ISO 23, at the beginning of december. No mention of suspecting Button in any other of the "these are who I find scummy" posts. Unless I'm blind.

I would be okay with a deadline right from the start of D2.

Oh, right.
Unvote
since 5cvm isn't getting lynched today.
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Post Post #571 (isolation #31) » Tue Jan 12, 2010 5:18 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

definitely interesting. Totally went oh s--- as i read and scrolled down, and the night scene got longer. O.O

As chibo pointed out, it's interesting that 5cvm is alive, given that it seems vigs are often delegated the role of offing players like him. I think the last line is just flavor, to establish links between Civil and Aran which would allow us to determine Civil as scum after death.

Does seem like sk+vig, with the vig knifing people. Shame Furry died after replacing in and reading during the night, making most of that work not so useful. =( (if you're reading this, thanks for the offer regarding the avy, but the absurdity of this one has grown on me--apparently the girl is some werewolf princess or somesuch who has gained some weight and taken a liking to kilts. XD)

Currently going through the game looking for connections. Hopefully will be done in the next few days. I honestly am not looking forward to looking at civil.
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Post Post #572 (isolation #32) » Tue Jan 12, 2010 5:20 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

ebwop: sk knifing people. Guess I should go to sleep. -.-
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Post Post #583 (isolation #33) » Wed Jan 13, 2010 6:04 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

Heh, interesting. You(Hito) took it in a different direction than I did.

Assumption:scum in our game, for whatever reason (inexperience, mistakes, etc.), will have created connections between them. For this, I'm focusing more on Aran and Seregil as they fit this profile more (and I really don't want to go through Civil's ISO).

Aranfan:

Aran's ISO 2, 8 (3 and 5 indirectly deal with this as well) are defenses of xvart against 5cvm's early game antics. As he points out, 5cvm's claims are pretty much bs, and yet I can't help but wonder why Aran points this out in ISO 8 again. It seems like he's trying to hammer this home. Now that we know Aran was scum, this may have just been Aran protecting a buddy. Aran also defends xvart against Civil's stuff, and this is before he was pretty much confirmed as the lynch for the day. I have the impression that Aran mentions xvart a lot as well, but I'll need to look at that as my notes are not comprehensive.

I also feel I must side with Xvert. The main argument against him seems to be bare assertion by 5cvm.

Hardly, you simply declared him to be not a friend.

I agree with most of what xvart says, we shouldn't be satisfied with second place. Also, the case on him seems to be based on a blind assertion from 5cvm, hardly a reliable source.

Since then both xvart and I have asked him to say what he thinks the method to 5cvm's madness is, and we have gotten this response:

Not liking "Civil's" Ad Hominems on xvart. The reason xvart doesn't like you Civil, is that you are suspicious of both those arguing for and those arguing against 5cvm's lynch.

You are, however, using it to denigrate xvart and erode his credibility.


Admittedly, the last two are interesting in that Aran is defending xvart against Civil which sort of throw a wrench into things. I'm not entirely sure why a close-to-lynch scum would defend a buddy against another buddy's attacks but I'm not awake enough to give it thought.

Seregil:

Defends xvart during the jester discussion, attacks chibo because chibo "doesn't like xvart's replies".

I didn't notice anything scummy about xvart's posts. Maybe I just read them differently than Confid and Chibo, but I found their questioning of xvart slightly strange (e.g. Confid claiming xvart was jester hunting by merely raising the possibility and Chibo "not liking xvart's replies")

I'll follow up on my last post. Of Confid and Chibo I find Chibo more suspicious. When I last made notes he said (p3 somewhere) "I don't like xvart's replies." I didn't find anything wrong with them so maybe Chibo was trying to make xvart seem more suspicous at a time where he was being questioned by others.


Xvart:

Defends Seregil during the dichotomy, does the wagon hopping thing from EG to 5cvm back to EG, gets into that spat with Civil, after which both conclude the other is town, never particularly gets on the Aran wagon (instead pushing EG), except for the late hammer, which he claims was due to being shocked.

The Furry kill just in general makes sense as others have pointed out. Looking at Tommy, it seems to me that he was intending to look closely at xvart, but never really got around to it (obviously quite weak but I do like to hypothesize about why players were killed).

I don't have the time to make this flow and relate, as you can tell I've devolved into just listing things I noticed. It's honestly more of a feeling, and there are probably holes. But in any case,
Vote:Xvart


Also, regarding Civil-Me, I'm pretty sure a few players have pulled no/null reads on me which is understandable given my play (shining beams of logic ftw). Me-Aran, I wouldn't call that an explicit defense, more of a regurgitation of my thoughts. And can you honestly say that my "defense" of Aran reflects more of an interest in keeping him alive than your hand holding? Me-Civil is linked to my early play. I honestly found your actions weird regarding that incident which is why I brought it up. Of course, it was pretty much ignored and I wasn't willing to vote for you since that was the only oddity I noticed. Anyways, I guess Civil's ISO is next on my to-do list. -.-
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Post Post #590 (isolation #34) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 12:53 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

@Chibo:
So what I would do is take a look at the reasoning. While looking at noncontributors is a valid scum hunting strategy, now that we've got 2 slots which have flipped town, with 3 players having filled those slots, I would much prefer to look at interactions between players rather than continue looking at noncontributors. Of course, this is more focused on scumhunting rather than sk hunting, and looking at noncontributors may very well be the way to go in regards to an sk.
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Post Post #597 (isolation #35) » Fri Jan 15, 2010 5:47 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

xvart wrote:My attitude on the whole hito analysis vs squirrel's analysis and think the best course would be to follow hito's suggestion to look for connections. For starters, we most likely have a serial killer and a sk's motive is random killing I would suggest we continue to look for connections as if there were scum and we might get lucky and hit the serial killer. Tomorrow we will know if there is more than one kill. Since the sk is most likely randomly killing and not going to be doing his best to not have connections at all it would be much more difficult to seek the sk. Unless of course the sk off'ed someone who was on to him; so... that would mean the sk would have targeted Squirrel since Furry mostly talked about his scumminess.
This whole paragraph confuses me. The first sentence seems incomplete and hito's analysis was based on the lack of connections. Also, scumhunting via connections and hoping to hit the sk is odd, since any sk-scum connections are going to be purely coincidental (neither knows who the other group is). I would also disagree with the idea that the sk is randomly killing--the sk needs to live till endgame so I would imagine he would try not to stand out to prevent NKs and target strong/important players to weaken town. I agree that we should examine sk kills but the follow up to that sentence doesnt make sense to me, unless what you meant to say was that I'm the sk and targeted furry because furry posted a few comments saying he would be voting for me at a certain point in time. Otherwise I don't see why the sk would have targeted me but somehow killed Furry because he talked about me.
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Post Post #599 (isolation #36) » Fri Jan 15, 2010 11:08 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Oh, okay, so I did understand your post haha.

Anyways, anyone know where Humble is?
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Post Post #602 (isolation #37) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 10:57 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Boxman, I should be voting xvart(post 583).


Also, am I the only one kind of disappointed activity wise?
Button and 5cvm are just fingering SKs without providing evidence nor applying any real pressure.
Humble's disappeared.
EG is still his usual not so useful self.
Chibo and xvart have given some of their thoughts, but seem to me rather noncommittal.
So ultimately, neither Hito's nor my analysis is really achieving anything, other than "oh, that's nice."
I'm hoping that most of this is from people doing their own analysis, and other relevant things, rather than people waiting and watching on the fence for a sign from the heavens that so and so is sk/scum. As others have said, we're in a pretty good position here, with at worst 1 SK, 1 scum, and 6 townies (including the relevant power roles). I'd like to see some more pressure, more actions, from town because as it stands I feel like this is going to go down the drain fast.

Now, I'm assuming button and 5cvm have reasons for their SK suspicions, and I'd like to hear those. Otherwise I'm going to assume they're fishing for reactions, and it seems to me that without a vote behind it, it's rather weak (especially 5cvm given his past actions).
EG, I'd like to hear your thoughts on some players, preferably who could be sk/scum. I'd rather not read a list of who seems townie and who you have no idea about.
I'm looking forward to the results of xvart's pondering and hito's rereads, and I'll try to put some more together as well, and hopefully, we'll get some actions and reactions and get things moving.
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Post Post #603 (isolation #38) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 10:58 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

ebwop: oh, and we've also got a deadline in 10 days.
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Post Post #613 (isolation #39) » Tue Jan 19, 2010 2:39 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

That's L-2 Chibo.

Mod, can we get a prod/replace on EG?

He hasn't posted on the site in a while, is being prodded in one of his games and has been replaced in another.

And honestly, I'm waiting for some chibo action right now. Not too sure on the scum or no scum thing, hito's comments earlier make sense, though they assume that town misses twice when 1/3 of the population is against town.

Also, understood Humble, pretty sure most of us aren't really feeling this game. At least we have a deadline this time(7 days). XD
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Post Post #615 (isolation #40) » Tue Jan 19, 2010 2:59 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

hitogoroshi wrote:Yeah, after thinking about it a bit there's a chance of three scum and one sk. It'd be balanced against town for sure, but if you're in the mindset of 'Vig is GREAT for town, always, and balances it hard for town" instead of "another killing role in a 12p...?" it'd be something that could get by the censors. Regardless, it's a slim enough chance I'd rather ignore associative tells unless we kill the sk and the game still continues.
Right, I was just thinking in terms of random actions, in which case 4/9 of the time, town mislynches and misvigs. Though at that point it gets complicated with 3 parties with 1 lynch and 3 kills in play. Actually it's 14/33 so slightly less often(42%).
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Post Post #617 (isolation #41) » Wed Jan 20, 2010 2:20 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

xvart wrote:
A_Squirrel wrote:I would also disagree with the idea that the sk is randomly killing--the sk needs to live till endgame so I would imagine he would try not to stand out to prevent NKs and target strong/important players to weaken town.
So you agree that the SK is not randomly killing, but your suggestion is not about the SK killing pattern, but about day play. If the SK is not randomly killing, what do we base the kills off of when analyzing them?
Well, I did suggest that SK would target strong protown players for their NK. I didn't explicitly say that SK may also target those who had suspicions on them, but that just seems like a given to me. It would be interesting to me if the SK really were just randomly killing, as they have a certain amount of control over the game via that kill which would be wasted by randomly choosing targets (though it would screw up kill analysis).
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Post Post #628 (isolation #42) » Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:18 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

Mod, how will the replacements affect the deadline (or will it)? I don't particularly care either way, just want to know.


I'll have some things to say later.
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Post Post #632 (isolation #43) » Sun Jan 24, 2010 7:53 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Ok wow.

I've been expecting chibo to come in and say something, maybe to defend himself you know? But he really hasn't done so...

I really don't like this chibo wagon. Wtf is this "oh look at his posts, obv sk." I'm inclined to think that Button's 609 is complete bs--mafia doc is an unusual (from what I've seen) role and is quite powerful. The "only sk thinks this" seems absolutely weak to me.

Humble's 610 seemingly arbitrarily clears players from being sk. and whats this sk is unkillable thing? and of course, chibo ignores the request for a claim. not sure what i think of it. its interesting that humble says dont trust button but goes with him on the chibo wagon.

Humble's 619. analyzing the mod to determine the set up seems very very dangerous. theres no guarantee to anything in it. it may be a nice thought experiment, but nothing I would go with unless there was more proof. and I highly doubt that there was proof of an sk on day 1. *insert
sk
knows sk exists comment* I'd consider "anti-town killed furry and not vig, to keep furry quiet" absolutely obvious. Can you honestly say that only the sk will think this, and say it?

I thought we were basing the sk on being a non-contributor, but I guess not since people seem to be ignoring EG. I don't see why you would ignore a slot that hasn't really contributed all game. If anything, that's a great spot to hide in. But no, we're going after someone else?

hito, look at the case...
"hey guys, look at his posts, obvsk"
"only sk thinks this, obvsk"
"he's not town."
etc.

Maybe I'm just missing something?
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Post Post #637 (isolation #44) » Wed Jan 27, 2010 2:19 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

I'm here.

Unfortunately, I have the feeling xvart may need a prod/replacement as well, since he's been replaced in another of his games. =/
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Post Post #641 (isolation #45) » Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:13 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

You have 3 votes. aka L-2.

Disclaimer: Totally unofficial vote count, if it's wrong, I refuse to take responsibility, and it may very well be. Use at your own risk.
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Post Post #644 (isolation #46) » Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:55 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

Loooooool.

Welcome Jase. No questions in particular for you at the moment, though I'm looking forward to reading your thoughts. Hopefully we get the next few replacements in and this'll jumpstart the game.
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Post Post #660 (isolation #47) » Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:49 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

So in reverse:
Interesting thoughts on everyone, Jase, though I don't particularly care that much as something along those lines is pretty much required. And since you know, a few of those players are now gone. -.-

I like how long it took for chibo to even mention the requests for him to claim...several mentions of claiming seem to have just been ignored. I'd have liked to at least see it addressed even if it was just a simple dismissal. And honestly, I'd like to think that anti-town factions are competent enough to be able to determine which players are strong or pro-town, though I do think that the possibility of public information being manipulated by said factions should be kept in mind. But in our case, I don't think there's any harm in pointing out pro-town players. And Chibo, you're at L-2 with Jase willing to vote you later. So you're really at L-1.

Jase, mind telling me which post had weird wording that set you off? I'd like to know.

Now, there's too much content for me to confidently give reads on every player. I'll stand by the analysis I did on Xvart, assuming there's another scum. If we're SK-hunting, well, Jase's slot gets suspicion because of 5cvm's play (though I'll admit it's a longshot), EG gets suspicion for seemingly not doing anything, and I'll sit here attentively watching this Chibo thing unfold for a bit more.
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Post Post #665 (isolation #48) » Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:22 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

@Jase: Essentially that anything that's been said both the town and scum know, but the scum have the advantage of also knowing who's who and of having a NK. So if you assume that players are going to look at the NK, try to figure out why it happened, and use it to find scum, you open up some possibilities for scum play where for example, scum can kill person A who had been pushing for person B's lynch, setting up a potential reason for B wanting A dead, if B were scum.
If that made no sense or we want to assume slightly less experienced/skilled/ballsy scum, then basically scum can use public information for stuff too (and in other ways than in conjunction with kills).
Also, if it wasn't that important, that's fine i guess. Thanks for looking though.
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Post Post #672 (isolation #49) » Thu Feb 04, 2010 3:19 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

Interesting thoughts about the scum doc chibo. But theres no indication that the scum doc can only protect scum--in my mind being a scum doc is an great role in that you can play it out as a town doc, claim doc if necessary, and not have to worry about scum offing you because
you
are scum. This also means you can pull some shenanigans in an attempt to get an advantage in endgame. And honestly, the Civil kill was out of the blue for me, and may have been for Civil as well, so even if he could protect himself, he may not have felt the need to. Especially since the existence of an SK or vig hadn't been confirmed yet, though i guess upon further thought the existence of a scum doctor hints at the existence of opposing killing roles.
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Post Post #674 (isolation #50) » Thu Feb 04, 2010 4:09 pm

Post by A_Squirrel »

Well, again, there's no guarantee of anti-scum killing roles, though it is hinted at (and the number is up in the air as well). And if doc can't protect himself, the point about self-protecting is moot. And while yes, it's kind of awkward to only have one scum to protect, I wanted to show that there are more possibilities to the role than just protecting scum, which may have affected number of scum. And yeah, this is entirely hypothetical.

Also, not only do we need our mod back, but we need a replacement for EG and possibly xvart, who may or may not have been prodded. =/
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Post Post #676 (isolation #51) » Fri Feb 05, 2010 3:10 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Before N1, there was no guarantee.
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Post Post #679 (isolation #52) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 8:16 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

What about SK chibo? Any thoughts on who that could be?
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Post Post #688 (isolation #53) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:48 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

I'm here as well, but it seems like the common opinion is to let it die. Though I don't really care either way.
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Post Post #695 (isolation #54) » Wed Feb 10, 2010 5:42 am

Post by A_Squirrel »

Thread title change threw me off. -.-

Jailkeeper here. Didn't do anything N1 basically cus I'm too much of a wuss. Though that's not how I rationalized it. XD

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