Mini 863 - Space Station Mafia: GAME OVER - EVERYONE'S DEAD
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
-
-
Hoopla
-
-
Hoopla
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
The dice was completely unrelated, and purely for my own amusement. I did not want to vote for Sposh.hiphop wrote:
I have been meaning to comment on this since my first post, second post and third post, but didn't remember until after I posted, and I don't like to double post. Now I will comment.Hoopla wrote:Original Roll String: 1d12(STATIC) 1 12-Sided Dice: (12) = 12
12 players right? Were you willing to vote for yourself? Because how can you not be willing to be random out of twelve players, if you don't have twelve players to be random from? I call this randomness, bias. Therefore your vote was not random. So why did you vote?-
-
Hoopla
-
-
Hoopla
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Okay, I am relatively satisfied you're town. I suggest we bandwagon someone to L-3 or L-2 before the end of this page.
If you choose someone other than me, I will support that choice in my next post.
Once we decide to do this, everyone else must either support this in their next post by following our lead, or give an adequate excuse as to why random bandwagonning is not pro-town.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I should probably help out here. 3:9 (3 scum, 9 town) is by far the most common set-up for a 12 player game. 33% only ever happens in large games with multiple scum groups. Balance of those games tend to depend on crosskills at night.milkshake wrote:
About. 25% is probably closer, I think.By the way. Does anyone know how many scum there are? Isn't it usually 33%?
Another semi-common variation for mini games is 2:1:9 (2 scum, 1 SK, 9 town) or 3:1:9 - but if there is only one kill at night it is generally safe to assume you are playing in a 3:9 set-up.
On a more serious note, I'm quite confident Messiah is scum, and I encourage others to view his posts. Can we please bandwagon him now?
Vote: Messiah-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Yes milkshake, I do have information, and we ought to be voting Messiah. The reason I am not explicitely divulging my information (yet) is because it forces his scumbuddies to make a commitment one way or another early in the game.
To appease anyone who thinks I am lying, here is my reason, which I will reveal later:
M v a a i m a b t g a e w o s m s. I m i i f s, i p h i a i u p, t I m a k s, w i t c f h t r m t h n w.
T p o a u w i t g r (n j m), a i p s v m o o t c z.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
NewAgeWarrior: I will happily reveal my coded information soon - if you want a hint in the mean time to tide you over, each letter is the first letter of a word in my message.
To be honest though, I doubt you're Messiah's buddy. It seems like a far too obvious defense which could come back to bite you if/when Messiah flips scum. Despite being wifom, I will tentatively chalk you down to skeptical town, which is okay, and something we certainly need.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Yes, this was in reference to hiphop - we had about 6 posts back and forth. I don't see how it could be anyone else I was referring to.Peabody wrote: Hoopla, you missed my question:
Peabody wrote:
Is this in reference to HipHop? Can you explain your reasoning behind your conclusion, Hoopla?Hoopla wrote:Okay, I am relatively satisfied you're town. I suggest we bandwagon someone to L-3 or L-2 before the end of this page.
The conclusion wasn't true - I was only curious to see if he would follow my lead. His play I actually interpreted as a loose scumtell, due to some recent data-mining I did, where I speculated deliberately unusual, bizarre or anti-town play was more often than random seized upon by scum early in a game. The logic is scum seek a safe place to put their vote, and dislike commiting to something they can be called-on for easily. Whereas town, who have a more genuine attitude toward scumhunting, have no ulterior motives and thus tend to place dicier votes.
Is this satisfactory?-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Hey Alamaster, do you have any more content you wish to add?AlamasterGM wrote:Not liking Peabody or CoCo at the moment.
Sure, I can retry. I was talking about a scumtell I generated whereby scum tend to jump on unusual/anti-town playstyles as they deem it a safe place to put their vote. Scum want to avoid being under pressure, and will generally seek safety over a controversial position.NewAgeWarrior wrote:I have no idea what you just said hoopla, though I feel its my fault cause I think my brain stopped working for some reason. Can you restate that like I'm a kindergartner? a short summary would work too.
Anyway, this read was developed from reviewing the start of many games, and despite being very subjective at times due to ever-evolving meta on what is town and what isn't, scum tended to be the ones to seek the safety of votes on anti-town players, and policy lynches.
Rereading that summary, I don't think I made it any simpler. I hope you understand.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
What? No...NewAgeWarrior wrote:Man, a kindergartner would never understand that
So, if i get it right, you were basicly voting on and insisting on messiah for no real reason to he how he would react and to see who would believe such a cock-and-bull story for an easy and useless bandwagon.
Thats what i got from it.
Peabody was enquiring about my interactions with hiphop. That's what my response to him was about. Hiphop.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
There are plenty of role-based ways information can be generated. Unconfirmed masons and neighbours, and day-cops off the top of my head. Although, I'm not ready to say if my information is generated from my role.milkshake wrote:
Maybe it's almost contradictory... but honestly it's what I'm doing too. I'm losing confidence that Hoopla will have any worthwhile info in her secret little message, but I think that the only way we're going to get anywhere in Day 1 is to pile on to somebody and make something (whatever that something is) happen.You are hesitant to believe the reason the bw is there and yet you still want it to be around. Isn't this almost contradictory?
Then we can build real arguments from what happens instead of, well, "finding paragraphs scummy."-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
hiphop wrote:
You are doing it too. I think the part that is bolded explains it all. You don't know what you are aiming for, and yet you want a bw.milkshake wrote:Maybe it's almost contradictory... but honestly it's what I'm doing too. I'm losing confidence that Hoopla will have any worthwhile info in her secret little message, but I think that the only way we're going to get anywhere in Day 1 is to pile on to somebody and make something(whatever that something is)happen.For all you know the bw could give the scum the win.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I think that is something you need to answer in regards to your own post. It would be a pretty unbalanced game if scum could win from an incorrect bandwagon, no?hiphop wrote:
Explain.Hoopla wrote:hiphop wrote:
You are doing it too. I think the part that is bolded explains it all. You don't know what you are aiming for, and yet you want a bw.milkshake wrote:Maybe it's almost contradictory... but honestly it's what I'm doing too. I'm losing confidence that Hoopla will have any worthwhile info in her secret little message, but I think that the only way we're going to get anywhere in Day 1 is to pile on to somebody and make something(whatever that something is)happen.For all you know the bw could give the scum the win.-
-
Hoopla
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
That is some of the worst logic I have ever seen.
1) Lets say I didn't have information on Messiah, and we lynched someone else instead. You can make that exact same argument for whatever that player flips. A lynch based off a stupid semantics debate (which is what normally happens on D1) will not improve bandwagon info the next day.
2) The town will generally have at least 3 mislynches up it's sleeve (usually more, but never less). There is no way we will base any lynches entirely on a D1 bandwagon.
3) Your post only serves to scare the town away from lynching. We won't win if we let people off the hook. Yes, a healthy amount of paranoia and speculation is warranted - but you have nothing else to go on for D1.
To be honest, your post sounds like that of scumbuddy prematurely defending himself for not being for Messiah's lynch.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Hiphop, your signal:noise ratio is awful. You don't need to respond to every single line in someone's posts. Can I suggest next time a simple summary that makes it easy to understand both your position and mine? Remember, succinctness is pro-town.
Seeing as we're getting into that ugly typing contest phase, I am going to claim I have a day-time role.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I think you ought to check each of Empking's games. That particular posting style (or lack of) isn't exactly unique to his scum game.hiphop wrote: I in paticular don't like Empking's post, because it almost seems like he is lurking. I played with Hohum in this game. He posted one liners all in day one. Turned out he was scum.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
M v a a i m a b t g a e w o s m s. I m i i f s, i p h i a i u p, t I m a k s, w i t c f h t r m t h n w.
T p o a u w i t g r (n j m), a i p s v m o o t c z.
The only way genuine reactions come from many players is through fear of the noose. Messiah was bandwagonned to L-1 at one stage and made logical defenses against himself implying he'd flip town (even after I had claimed a day-time role). I am relatively satisfied he is town for now.My vote and attack is merely a bluff to generate an early wagon on someone mildly suspicious. If Messiah is in fact scum, it puts him in an incredibly uncomfortable position, thinking I may actually know something, which in turn could force him to reveal more than he normally would.
The purpose of an unknown wagon is gauge reactions (not just Messiah's), as it puts scum very much out of their comfort zone.
The most adverse reaction from this is hiphop's, who I'd like to pursue. Granted, his reactions to Messiah's wagon makes more sense if they were both scum, I could see hiphop's stance being a logical one for scumknowingMessiah was not scum. It would keep blood off his hands in the event of it being followed through to lynch - but on the flipside I can see him just being a paranoid townie who doesn't like not knowing what is happening.
I think the former scenario is likely, and would like to lynch hiphop now. If anyone has any questions regarding this play, I am happy to answer them now.
Unvote, vote: hiphop-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
hiphop: when have you ever seen a strong case on D1? If you cannot find one, it is your duty to be against every bandwagon on D1.
I agree, many people have a tendancy to overvalue their own reads (particularly on D1), but it is this cognitive bias that tends to generate information. If everyone played with a 'well, shrug, you're probably town going by pure probability' attitude, we would get nowhere. We need people to make commitments (even if they are wrong or farfetched) to discover underlying motives.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
But what you fail to realize is it puts nobody under pressure if they're aware the pressure from you will only be fleeting or nearly equally distributed. As scum, I never fear those sort of players because they're so easily prone to manipulation by the crowd, or herd instinct. If you fail to assert beliefs (or spread them like butter) nobody will really be influenced by your decisions, because they are admittedly weak whether you realize it or not.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Yeah, not even you.hiphop wrote: I don't realize it, and I don't care to realize it. There are still people like you who ignore questions completely. That only makes me look harder at your posts. Where have I shown I can be manipulated by anybody?Besides at the end of the day nobody knows who I find scummy. That only leads to me being NK, because I am unpredictable. As long as the town wins, I don't care. At least than people get the suspicion that they do. Am I supposed to leave suspicious post untouched?-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I like your thinking milkshake, however I don't endorse your theory of hiphop/Messiah scumpals, or at least it being the most likely combination.
Assuming we're in a 3:9 set-up (the most common mini normal variant), and ignoring all other variables, here is some numbers:
Both scum: ~9%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~50%
This is the odds assuming alignment is random. Do you really think the hiphop/Messiah pair has done enough to jump higher than it's pregame 9%? One scum/one town might be a worthwhile bet, but really, looking for scumpairs on the opening day is almost completely useless. Let's just focus on finding one. Fortunately for everyone, hiphop is that someone.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Erm, yes. You're right, appologies for my bad math. I worked out the one scum/one town problem first, and inadvertantly multiplied the Both scum/Both town problems by two at the end thinking there was two different combinations for those too. That of course isn't true. Your numbers are right.hiphop wrote:
Where do you get these numbers from?Hoopla wrote: Both scum: ~9%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~50%
I get:
Both scum: ~5%
One scum/one town: ~41%
Both town: ~55%
Except, every combination of players has the same chance pregame of being both town. Do you have any final words before someone hammers?hiphop wrote: So in theory we both should be town.-
-
Hoopla
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Gut tells me Messiah might not be hiphop's scumbuddy, but I am willing to entertain the idea. Hiphop's defense of Messiah certainly is incriminating, although I suspect hiphop may have acted the same way regardless of who I set-up a bandwagon on.
My current preference is a policy lynch on Empking or CoCo. I think we can afford it.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Proactive towns need to worry about more than just lynching scum - keeping people active and ensuring we're not left in lylo or later game scenarios with multiple lurkers (or even people incapable of analysing things).Messiah wrote: @Hoopla: Why do you want to policy lynch today?
We lynched scum D1, so we're ahead and can afford to do some tidying up. I think Empking is quite an excellent choice in my opinion - he was not on hiphop's lynch which is a good place to start. Coupled with his lack of content, I won't settle for much less.
Vote: Empking
I will have more soon when I've more time on my hands.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Bussing seems to be the scumtell of the month. Why do people not look at those NOT on the wagon after a scum lynch?Sposh wrote:Sorry for not posting a whole lot guys. Currently, I think the charlatan and alamaster back and forth is intriguing, and based on yesterday's wagon, I would think that either Alamaster or milkshake is scum because they were the last ones on the bandwagon!-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Empking tends to lurk and post one-liners as both alignments, but I think we have enough information to work with here. I'm yet to run numbers on it, but I suspect it's a relatively common scum tactic to drop a vote on a partner early, which is how I read Empking's first vote;
This is backed up with the rest of his play toward hiphop, which serves to cast suspicion, but never further his wagon. This way it gives him an out in the event, he can't find a lynch elsewhere. Here is a good example;Empking wrote:Vote: Hiphop
over reaction to a backed up joke.
--Empking wrote:Unvote
I still think Hiphop is more scummy than most but I have to say I don't like Peeabody's actions and how they effected the Messiah wagon.
Vote: Peabody
Empking's main interest was Messiah throughout Day 1, which is where his vote was more often than not. He left his wagon once hiphop's started to pick up, and he fizzled into the background toward the end of D1, where he did not make another vote. This is rather suspicious, considering he'd been keen to put forth his suspicion on hiphop earlier.
He's now conveniently using hiphop's flip to incriminate Messiah, which is interesting, because his suspicions yesterday seem independant of hiphop/Messiah being scum together.
My question to Empking is, would you still find Messiah suspicious if hiphop flipped town?-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I have more time to address this quote, so this is what I'm going to talk about;
This bandwagon you say I derailed was a 3-vote wagon (milkshake, Peabody, Empking) - the first two of these votes were random from page 2, and the third was your vote only supported by a pithy one-liner.Empking wrote:
You don't think actively derailing a bandwagon on scum is scummy?Hoopla wrote:
I think you're forgetting I was one of the prime reasons why hiphop's wagon was reignited, and when it did, you were nowhere to be seen. Are you seriously FoS'ing me for this when your ties with hiphop are awful?Empking wrote:FoS: Hooplafor derailing the Hiphop bandwagon.
This is the stage where I create a coded message to generate a bandwagon on Messiah. This was an information gathering gambit, which served a good purpose. The funny thing is Empking blindly follows this and votes Messiah also.
Next, after a reveal my message, I am the first the kickstart hiphop's wagon which is something Empking neglects to mention in his post. Because I get the impression he isn't reading the thread, I will link the post.
--
Here is the summary: Empking is suspicious of me for 'derailing' hiphop's wagon, but refuses to acknowledge my influence behind his eventual lynch. Couple this with him leaving hiphop's wagon for Messiah also (and then trying to incriminate ME for it). And then the added bonus of Empking voteless at the end of the day claiming 'he didn't find anyone scummy', despite posting this about hiphop toward the end of Day 1.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Empking, what has changed your mind about Messiah. This is you earlier this day;
Empking wrote:Vote; Messiah
Play based on actions in regards to hip hop.
Messiah, what are your thoughts on Milkshake.
And this is you now;Empking wrote:Char: Messiah, barely.
Explain this to me please.Empking wrote:Unvote
Vote; Cooldog
Messiah probably isn't scum and Cool is not scumhunting but just... well look at 402. He ignores questions and his main scumhunting is "You weren't voting for two days" which he made when he hadn't voted for at least three days.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
No. NEVER FORCE CLAIMS when you don't need to. And especially when there aren't 7 people willing to have him lynched. Seriously, there is NO reason to want claims when the wagon doesn't have the support.CooLDoG wrote:Thanks char, for giving me an answer.
Welcome Howard...
we are at l-2 on agm lets now start to consintrate on him, force a claim, get a case on him, etc. I almost want a l-1 to force a claim but then a scum might come in and hammer.
As far as AGM goes, he feels the same way as the town games I've seen. I don't understand the case against him.
MORE Empking votes please.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Eh, sorry. I have been reading, but I have been more focused on my other game to be honest. I missed his claim.charlatan wrote:Once again CooLDoG somehow forgets we already saw Almaster claim.
Hoopla's insistence that CooLDoG not push for an Almaster claim means we can add her to the list of people probably not paying attention to the game.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I'm aware of this, and I appologise for my recent uninspiring play. To be honest, I'm not having much fun - but it's probably a general mafia burnout than this game specifically. I want to try and make a big effort again soon to bring myself back in the game. Please badger me here until I do so, because I am browsing.Peabody wrote: Speaking of Hoopla, I'm not liking her newfound one-liners. She was doing very well in day 1, but that passion just seemed to have gone out of her.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I see where you get your logic, but I disgaree and tend to think the likeliest scenario is Messiah was town, and hiphop wanted credit for being against his lynch (if Messiah was lynched at some stage), because he knew he was town.
That would be a pretty elaborate gambit (me+hiphop scum) to organise before play, and seems counterproductive when many players will probably dismiss it as wifom. Like, I don't think most others think I'm overwhelmingly town because of my magnification of hiphop's play. Doesn't seem like a good payoff.
What do you think about Empking's interactions with hiphop, milkshake? You seem to have not spoke much about him.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Not sure, there's been patches of activity. This isn't one now. But I'll have a chat with you now, if you're online.Looker wrote: Did I come in at a bad time or something or is this not a very talkative town?
You didn't talk about any of your predecessor's posts, and rereading NAW, I've found some of his play rather perculiar. Perhaps you can give me your take on it?
--
There were a few posts during the period when I hadn't revealed my code that caught my eye. He initially voted me for encryting information, seemingly unsure how to address it. I take this next quote as NAW knowing Messiah and myself are both town, and is getting ahead of himself to catch a lie, and set up mislynches:
His reaction to my code prior to this message, is actually the closest out of everyone to hiphop's play. He questioned it, voted it, knowing my assertions was false, knowing he could gain town credit either way it went.NewAgeWarrior wrote:Interesting. So hoopla is claiming a daytime role. I'm going to focus on this, since it has the most information.
So, if we lynch messiah, and he flips town, we know that hoopla is scum. (good for us)
If we lynch messiah, and messiah is scum, then hoopla has a power role or he is scum who is trying to earn our trust. In the end, to me, a messiah lynch seems to be good for us, if for nothing more than info on hoopla.
Are there any flaws with my plan/logic?
--
Another point of interest is NAW's stance on hiphop's play;
NAW was one not on the hiphop wagon, and did fade away toward the end of D1 - the passage of time where hiphop was under fire most. This is a classic scum manoever - jumping in with suspicion, but making sure whatever is said doesn't further the wagon or case against him. This is evident with the subtle defenses of hiphop's play, while still casting suspicion. And of course by not throwing down a vote.NewAgeWarrior wrote:To me, hiphop has said and done some scummy things, but I can't support a lynch on him yet because i feel that both AGM and Empking are clearly more deserving of a lynch today. My main beef with hiphop is his instance at the uselessness of day 1. To be fair he didn't say it like that, but I think that day one can bear some very useful info, especially later on down the line when we can try to catch scum in contradictions from the past.
I don't know why I missed so much of this, but it looks bad.
--
Also, one more thing. Why are you using this as point against Empking, when NAW was guilty of this too?
Looker wrote: - You weren't on the HipHop Wagon-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
That's valid, and we really should be lynching someone today who wasn't on hiphop's final wagon. That a far worse offense than any bussing scenario.Looker wrote: And regarding the double-standard point, I was using that point against Empking in the Empking V CoolDog department if that makes sense. (If it doesn't, I'm sure I can find some way to...well..explain it)
Vote: Deadline
Lets kill Empking.-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Guys, we need a lynch. Some of us are going to have to make compromises to our second or even third choice, because we're going NOWHERE with this level of activity.
I don't understand what's happening - people are worried about lynching the wrong person, but we're already putting ourselves in a bad position with this much lurking. Come on, seriously. Lets lynch, we need more information.
We should be lynching someone NOT on hiphop's lynch, and Empking is by far and away the most obvious connection. I'm just going to keep repeating myself until people show up. This isn't fun. Are you all having fun?-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
-
-
Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008