Open 168- Vengeful Mafia -={Game over}=- before 844

[Herodotus]

/confirm!

[Herodotus]

@Mod: when you said votes need to be large size, does that mean none of the votes so far have counted?

like:

Code: Select all

[size=18][b]large bold text[/b][/size]

I have to run, but

vote 12Keyblade

I think his claim is a fakeclaim. Obv scum.

[Herodotus]

What's special about a vengeful set-up?

Hope you don't mind if I answer...
1. No NK's
2. If a townie is lynched

on day 1

, they get a vengeful kill. If we NoLynch, we will be in lylo on day 2 because the vengeful kill won't be available.
Maybe NoLynch becomes useful starting on day 2.

[Herodotus]

Not pointless. It's a way to get around inconvenient deadlines.

I was in fact thinking about voting for Charter. I'm not sure whether it's a good idea to place a second vote during the random stage in a vengeful game, though. If he's town, a scum can quickhammer. Even though that semi-outs one of the scum, the town has bad odds looking for the other one in 3 player lylo. The wiki gives the town good odds of winning if a scum is lynched day 1, and I'm not sure yet that Charter is necessarily scum.

[Herodotus]

Yes, I do mind. Seeing as you did wonder, why did you answer?
Also, why are you thinking about voting Charter?

I didn't want a nolynch to happen before someone said "wait, stop, that's a bad idea because we might lose the vengeful kill." (It depends on how the mod interprets the rules, which I suspect were written for games without deadlines.) It was definitely possible that a well-meaning townie or two would vote for a nolynch without considering that. Add on a scum or two who sees the advantage, and we have a nolynch without much information to derive from it. Giving up whatever reaction-seeking you were doing was a sacrifice I considered acceptable.

Charter asking about the deadline within the thread twice within the space of three posts looks like it could be an attempt to seem pro-town... which would inherently deserve a page 1 semi-random vote depending on the circumstances.

[Herodotus]

Once I was asking the mod, once I was asking IAUN.

Oh. I see that now.

[Herodotus]

Your vote did seem serious. Links of past RVS votes?

Supposing that IAUN was serious, what do you think was the purpose of the vote?

[Herodotus]

LOL What claim?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 72#1848572

L-2 is bad this early.

One vote is bad this early? Why?
Are you suspicious of some or all of the people who have voted because of that?

Best. Mod. Ever. Prod scenes FTW!

That was pretty cool.

@Mod: requesting a prod for ZazieR.

[Herodotus]

I'm calling it as Keyblade/Zazie. What do you think, Hero?

I'll wait and share after Zazie gets back.

[Herodotus]

Semi-random is better than a random vote. Do you agree or disagree? Why? And if you agree, why no vote change?

See post 21 for why I didn't change at the time.

Why aren't you voting for Hero?

Because I wanted to see his response first.
Why are you asking about him?

Which response, or to what?

Zaz, who are you most suspicious of?

Right now, Hero.

Uh, why? It looks like your suspicions are based on:
1) IAUN calling me town
2) My suggestion that a nolynch might be bad

On point (1,) I can understand Charter's reason to consider it a scumtell on IAUN, as he might be buddying up to a townie. But the fact that he said it doesn't indicate anything about my alignment.
On point (2,) it may have been unlikely that more people would vote for a nolynch, but not impossible. Charter may "know the rules," but he might assume the rules allow a vengeful kill whenever the first lynch is on a townie. I think I answered this point well enough in post 24. As for not asking the mod, the rules were already there. It didn't occur to me that he do things differently. And given post 29, I don't want to ask. (I also don't think it will be an issue.)

[Herodotus]

L-2 is bad this early.

One vote is bad this early? Why?
Are you suspicious of some or all of the people who have voted because of that?

@Mod: requesting a prod for ZazieR.

Sorry, L-1. My bad.

Okay, let's fix it and put it in context:

Not pointless. It's a way to get around inconvenient deadlines.

I was in fact thinking about voting for Charter. I'm not sure whether it's a good idea to place a second vote during the random stage in a vengeful game, though. If he's town, a scum can quickhammer. Even though that semi-outs one of the scum, the town has bad odds looking for the other one in 3 player lylo. The wiki gives the town good odds of winning if a scum is lynched day 1, and I'm not sure yet that Charter is necessarily scum.

L-1 is bad this early.

What is your point? Just agreeing with me?

[Herodotus]

Zazie's back. Do share.

Right, sorry.
I find both Zazie and 12KB suspicious. I'm not sure they are the scumteam, though.

I just placed the final vote in another game, and am reading this one now... so I didn't actually need the prod.

[Herodotus]

@Zazier:
Charter's post does look like he wouldn't have joined the nolynch voting (unless he did so as opportunistic scum,) but depending on IAUN's answer, you might have, and 12KB might have. From your point of view, you may have been certain that you weren't going to vote for a nolynch, but I had no idea what you would do. Maybe if I had thoroughly analyzed your posts and/or past games, I could have logically concluded that the warning wasn't necessary. But I didn't consider that worth spending time on; I was just concerned about something that might have hurt the town.

I don't see this as something you could realistically consider a valid point against me, and as a result, your pursuit of it looks suspicious.

@IAUN:
Why aren't you voting for either of your candidates?

@12Keyblade:
If you want me to consider unvoting you, you'll have to post something better than excuses for not posting and fixes for typos.

On point (1,) I can understand Charter's reason to consider it a scumtell on IAUN, as he might be buddying up to a townie. But the fact that he said it doesn't indicate anything about my alignment.

Actually it does, it smells of IAUN being goon and you being the GF. However, this isn't a reason to lynch you instead of IAUN.

Why, and why?

It seems like Charter and Zazie both dislike IAUN for calling me town. Is that correct?

[Herodotus]

On point (1,) I can understand Charter's reason to consider it a scumtell on IAUN, as he might be buddying up to a townie. But the fact that he said it doesn't indicate anything about my alignment.

Actually it does, it smells of IAUN being goon and you being the GF. However, this isn't a reason to lynch you instead of IAUN.

Why, and why?

Well, if you're GF and IAUN is goon, then he cannot have you getting lynched day one, so I can definitely see trying to head off suspicion on you. As for why it's not a reason to lynch you first, it was IAUN who made the comment so he could just be throwing our a red herring.

Well, if he's scum, it was definitely not a matter of wanting to keep me from being lynched, but of wanting to implicate me if he ever flips, or expecting me to find him townish in return. I also feel like holding what he said, on its own, as a point against him is over thinking. Accurately pointing out a townie should, on average, help the town.

[Herodotus]

Due to the terrible posting, the win conditions will be changed. On Tuesday the 15th, (THE DAY THE AMAZING AND TOTALLY AWESOME ZUNE HD COMES OUT) the win conditions will allow the mafia to win if all other players are have not posted in the 36 hour period before they are considered inactive. Only one mafia member has to be active in order to win the game. so, if all 3 trapped non-cannibals have not posted in 36 hours each, and one mafia member has, they win the game. I hope this makes it so that you all post a bit more.

Hmm... I wonder, will the win condition for the town be similarly changed, so that if neither mafia member posts for 36 hours, but all of the townies do, the town wins?

[Herodotus]

confirm vote: 12Keyblade

[Herodotus]

If you weren't scum, you would have more to say.

[Herodotus]

What are you doing to try to get good reads?

I'm thinking about a 12KB/IAUN scumteam. Your post 69 looks scummy because you may have been hoping that no townies would post during the 36 hours following my post 67. Scum have a good reason to want to get in a post along with their buddy during periods when townies are inactive.

[Herodotus]

12KB and IAUN have each pointed a finger at the other, but neither has voted for the other. 12KB's reason for suspecting IAUN is weak, so it looks contrived. I don't otherwise have much of a scummy read on IAUN, but cannot rule him out.

[Herodotus]

If IAUN and Charter are scum together, then Charter would have to be the GF.
I know that's not terribly useful, but I intend to post at least every 36 hours.
I'm also considering Charter's theory; the problem is I'm uncertain about Zazie being town.

[Herodotus]

This is clearly not true. charter/Zazie looks like a good bet too. I'm liking my vote where it is right now.

Why is 12KB not scum?
Are you satisfied with post 84?

[Herodotus]

Due to the terrible posting, the win conditions will be changed. On Tuesday the 15th, (THE DAY THE AMAZING AND TOTALLY AWESOME ZUNE HD COMES OUT) the win conditions will allow the mafia to win if all other players are have not posted in the 36 hour period before they are considered inactive. Only one mafia member has to be active in order to win the game. so, if all 3 trapped non-cannibals have not posted in 36 hours each, and one mafia member has, they win the game. I hope this makes it so that you all post a bit more.

Hmm... I wonder, will the win condition for the town be similarly changed, so that if neither mafia member posts for 36 hours, but all of the townies do, the town wins?

@Mod - have you decided on this? Sorry, I bolded it and written "@Mod"

[Herodotus]

Hi, Joe. I have a request.
Would you summarize each of Zazie's positions (he's the player you're replacing) and state whether you agree or disagree with each of them?

@Charter
If you think that IAUN-GF was faking his threat/deal to hammer 12KB-goon, why did you interrupt the process? Either IAUN would hammer his goon, which is fine for the town, or he wouldn't, which would reveal that he was faking it, and make it a easier for you to convince us to lynch him. Or 12KB would start playing actively and try to hunt scum (or pretend to hunt scum.)

If you weren't scum, you would have more to say.

Maybe I'm town, getting reads and working on who my venge kill will be.

What are you doing to try to get good reads?

Also, do you think it is better to lynch scum on day 1, or to lynch a townie who then vengeful kills scum?

[Herodotus]

@Mod
Oops, I meant to say "Sorry, I should have bolded it..."

(And I suppose the fact that it gives the town a breaking strategy is another reason not to allow it )

@Charter
Ok... I'll admit that one reason I haven't voted Zazie is because I figured if he was town, he'd more likely misvig than not.
But if we ended up in 3 player lylo, a townie who would have misvigged is about an equal liability, I think.

[Herodotus]

Based on the activity rule for scum, and their activity levels, IAUN and Joe would appear to be pretty confident that Charter and I are not the scumteam. 12KB has the excuse that he's V/LA.

[Herodotus]

* (the rule giving the scum the win if townies don't post)

[Herodotus]

There isn't anything to say until others are here.

joe478, are you sure that you have the time for this game?

[Herodotus]

I'm already voting him, so I can't hammer. Joe is a mystery. 12Keyblade has no way of knowing whether Joe would hammer, unless they are scumbuddies, so that would be some strong pressure. But on the other hand, the pressure is better than the hammer. I suppose we have to wait, anyways.

[Herodotus]

unvote

Can you request replacement or something if you're not really going to try?

Good question.

Preview Edit:
Sorry IAUN. I may revote 12KB, including hammering. But Joe's vote makes me unhappy.

[Herodotus]

[Herodotus]

Here's an idea:
There's very little chance that 12KB and Joe are both town. We could lynch one and if the lynchee is town, insist* that they vig the other.
On day 2, we have one dead scum, and one dead townie if we're unlucky. Or maybe we will be lynching the GF today, and win. But we will definitely be rid of one or both players who are trying to be anti-town.
So, we could choose randomly between the two, or decide which is scummier...
Could I get opinions on this plan *before* we try to decide which of them would be a better lynch?

@12KB: I don't mean to be insensitive to your family issues. But you've been inactive since the game started, long before your V/LA. And you have refused to let yourself be replaced.

* Not that we can control it, but

come on

. It should be obvious that if one is town, the other is scum. And if the scumteam is Charter/IAUN, then they more or less deserve the win.

[Herodotus]

@Mod: does the first rule mean that the scum cannot daytalk at all, and couldn't communicate pre-game?

[Herodotus]

It's not the possible scumpairs that have me convinced they're not likely to both be town. It's the large degree of effort they are both putting into not posting. Why would they both

try so hard

to say absolutely nothing... as town?

Your point about a lynched townie seeing three players asking them to vig the fifth player could be valid... but I still see an approximately 60% chance of a scum lynch, and a decent chance that a lynched townie could figure it out.

@Charter:
The deadline is in the first post.

Deadline For Day 1
9/27/09 @ 4:00pm Pacific
I will extend the deadline if I see fit.

I'm hoping the point of the deadline is to spark activity, and not to punish us if we need more time.

[Herodotus]

No. Not if you're scum (which you also didn't mention - nor would I expect you to.) If you're scum, you won't get to make a vig kill. But if you are town, then 12KB is very likely scum.

My alignment isn't relevant. It's very likely that at least one of you is scum. You can hypothesize that one of you is scum with me if you'd like, but I still want to eliminate whichever of you is scum.

[Herodotus]

Well, Joe and I can't be scum together, as it's been 36 hours since anyone but the two of us posted.
I guess lurking can cause progress.

[Herodotus]

Both charter and IAUN have objected to my plan of creating a Joe/12KB pairing. Both of their objections seem to be based on doubt that town-Joe or town-12KB would go through with vigging the other. I'm not sure what to make of that.

[Herodotus]

I don't think you're at L-1, I think you're at L-2.
I think you just put Joe (the player who replaced Zazie) at L-1 (along with IAUN's vote.)

[Herodotus]

@Mod: I unvoted shortly after Joe voted for 12KB/Empking.

Revised

I'm not feeling great right now, so this post isn't going to be very insightful.

Charter, what makes IAUN scum? Reading you in ISO, I see the following accusations (interpreted and paraphrased by me here:)
buddying
something that amounts to active lurking
post 78 looking like a GF talking to the goon

I think each of these are open to interpretation at least a little, so I'm not yet convinced.
What you call buddying could be townhunting. Knowing someone is town is almost as useful as knowing someone is scum in this setup.
As for the rest... actually he does look a little worse after a reread. But I need to do this at a better time.

[Herodotus]

With this setup, I think it's much better to look for pairing than looking for scumminess in general. Who do you think is Zazie/joe's partner?

IAUN, what are the most likely scumpairs in your opinion?

[Herodotus]

Wait, what?
Did IAUN/Charter just win?
Why are you voting me?

[Herodotus]

Not scum together:
Joe and Herodotus
Charter and Herodotus
Charter and IAUN

@IAUN: Both of the scum have to post within the 36 hour window.

[Herodotus]

Well, I've been pretty confident for a while that the scumpair is
one of Charter/IAUN, and
one of Empking/Joe.

With Charter confirmed (unless he's just being cool until the mod shows up to make his win official,) that means IAUN is scum. I'm still not sure about Joe and Empking, but if we lynch IAUN and he's goon, we still have two lynches.

vote iamausername

[Herodotus]

I would guess that Empking is the townie among Joe/Empking, but I'd prefer to lynch IAUN. If he's the goon, that would give us two lynches to hit the other scum.

[Herodotus]

So you're the goon.
With Charter as confirmed town, I don't see why you think we won't be lynching your partner on day 2 or 3...

[Herodotus]

No. If you were town, you would not have self-hammered. You don't get a vig kill.

[Herodotus]

I mean that you don't get a vig kill because you aren't town, not because you self-hammered.

Your win condition hasn't changed; you still want two townies lynched. I assume that anything you post now is trying to achieve that.

[Herodotus]

After some thought, I'm a little less sure about this. We'll see your flip when the mod posts it.

If you are town, IAUN, I have one request:
Don't give Empking/Joe a flawless victory. Empking is confirmed scum if you're town; shoot him. Even if I'm lynched tomorrow, I'd rather that half the scumteam have been killed. And that's setting aside the advantage of allowing Charter (as a fellow confirmed townie) a say in whether Joe or I is lynched.

[Herodotus]

Also, that way we'd know whether 12KB was the goon or GF.
But this is hypothetical, since I still think you are probably the goon.

[Herodotus]

how else was I supossed to keep people active?

Without a deadline, I'm not sure it would have been much of an issue. It would have taken a little longer, but once the game got going, people probably would have been more active.
It wasn't your fault that three of the players flaked from the site. Once Joe was replaced, things might have gone smoothly.
I'd have preferred if you would have handled activity like mods usually do -- prod if necessary, then replace if necessary.

Technically though, who won hinges on who views the game. if there was no rule, the town would have won.

?
I'm not sure whether Charter would necessarily ever have been lynched or vigged, even if he hadn't been "confirmed."

Who was the GF?

[Herodotus]

Ah. In that case, there was a solid chance we'd have lynched him on Day 1.