Mini 811: Foggy Londontown Mafia - Over!

[Gwynplaine]

Hey, everybody. I had a quick skim of the thread last night before offering to replace in, but now I'm going to go back and reread the whole thing carefully. I'll post some thoughts shortly.

[Gwynplaine]

After a more thorough reading, here's what I found most noteworthy so far.

Page 1: Confirmations and random votes.
Page 2: There's a little dustup between Mokina and Neferenom about being third on a bandwagon and changing votes and so forth. The "third on a bandwagon" thing gets more attention than it probably deserves.
Page 3: Kikuchiyo points out a possible connection between Mokina and Far_Cry, which Far_Cry explicitly denies. Dank replaces in with a pretty good analysis post that mostly echoes my thoughts so far.
Page 4: Hero764 joins in on the "explaining what Far_Cry meant" game, which Kikuchiyo and qwints call him on. Dank questions Hero764's lack of scumhunting. Wiirdo posts in the game for the first time since confirming, and it's a contentless two-liner. Dank calls out Far_Cry for trying to unplay the newbie card he played on Page 1.
Page 5: Hero764 votes for Kikuchiyo, who I think is one of the towniest-looking players so far (along with Qwints and Dank).Nadroj15 shows up, calls Kikuchiyo wishy-washy for changing her vote, votes Hero764 for being over-defensive and "having no opinion." Far_Cry votes Tenchi, for his "stay out of the way attitude"(???).
Page 6: Okay, Kikuchiyo loses some points for 126, especially the talk about a day 1 mason claim. This threatens to turn into a big theory argument between her and Qwints. Nadroj15 and Lowell weigh in on the pro-mason-claim side. Meanwhile, Hero764 continues to pretend not to understand why people think it's suspicious for him to explain what Far_Cry meant, and we get a rare appearance by Tenchi at the end of the page.
Page 7: Wiirdo's second appearance, again virtually without content. Mokina defends Hero764. Lowell puts Hero764 at L-2 without much of a justification, so some votes naturally swing his way.
Page 8: Lowell tries to defend his vote on Hero764, can't, says "maybe that was someone else" (!) and unvotes. Wiirdo pops in, votes for Lowell, pops out. Far_Cry points out Wiirdo's lurkiness. Dank points out that Wiirdo gave exactly the same reason for voting Lowell as Far_Cry originally did. Meanwhile, Mokina says that Kikuchiyo's argument is based on honest belief, and yet is still voting her because it's an anti-town kind of argument(?). Kikuchiyo points this out, Nadroj15 "me too"s, iamausername votes Mokina, Nadroj15 "me too"s.
Page 9: Kikuchiyo votes Mokina, much discussion ensues about Mokina's agreement/disagreement with Kikuchiyo's case against Hero764. Hero764 chimes in with an explanation of how to interpret Mokina's posts so they don't look scummy.
Page 10: Hero764 claims Mason with Mokina. Mokina confirms, which actually does explain her going after Kikuchiyo and his defense of her, assuming that they're confirmed town masons. Doesn't explain why he defended Far_Cry in a similar manner, though, as Dank points out. This prompts Hero764 to start defending his point (and, by extension Far_Cry) all over again.
Page 11: Hero764 and Dank continue to rehash the past eight pages. Kikuchiyo decides to try lurker hunting. Dank and Mokina go around for a while on whether Mokina and Hero764 were "forced" to claim masons or not. Nadroj15 "me too"s some more, starts drawing votes and Fs of S for it.
Page 12: The lurker hunt picks up steam. Wiirdo gets called out for active lurking, Far_Cry picks up some votes. Nadroj15 bandwagons some more, picks up more votes.
Page 13: Tenchi comes back, makes a big post that's sadly not much use because he's only read up to page 5 and hasn't seen the mason claims yet. Lowell shows up, makes a recap post, decides Qwints is scummiest player and votes him. Nadroj15 does a player list, which as a rule I'm generally not too fond of for the reason that Hero764 points out -- it helps the scum decide who's lynchable and who they'll have to nightkill. Tenchi makes another mostly useless recap post covering pages 6 and 7, which starts another bit of conversation about day 1 mason claims in general. Interestingly, everybody seems to be making the tacit assumption that mason pairs are confirmed town to each other. Nobody's even mentioned the possibility of a scum-mason pair.
Page 14: Tenchi/Mokina vs. Kikuchiyo on whether K "forced" Mokina/Hero764 into a too-early mason claim, and general theory stuff about masons. Out of nowhere, Far_Cry suggests that Kikuchiyo and Nadroj15 are masons(?) and gets into even more weird role speculation, including the possibility of an actor, which I had to look up in the wiki to find out what it was.
Page 15: More on Far_Cry's odd "defense" of Kikuchiyo. Finally getting some content out of Far_Cry and Wiirdo. SerialClergyman replaces Neferenom, who I totally forgot was even in this game.
Page 16: Seems like some wheel-spinning going on. Iamausername makes a case against Qwints, Qwints reiterates his case against Far_Cry. SerialClergyman's first big post makes a similar case against Far_Cry, voices suspicion of the mason claim, and calls out Wiirdo for active lurking. Dank puts Far_Cry at L-2.
Page 17: Hero764 defends Far_Cry based on meta. Qwints finally asks the question that's been in the back of my head since Page 10: are the masons confirmed town to each other? Nikanor replaces Wiirdo. SerialClergyman continues to be skeptical about the mason claim. Both Hero764 and Iamausername point out the problems with the fake-claim scenario SC is suggesting.
Page 18: Far_Cry returns, doesn't defend himself very well. Lowell puts him at L-1. He makes a weird post where he soft claims Jester, third-party, and town power role. Two posts later he claims doctor. Almost nobody believes him, but several people unvote on principle. Qwints explicitly advises against a counter-claim.
Page 19: More discussion of the doc claim. Nadroj15 picks up some more votes. Mokina doesn't buy the claim and even votes Far_Cry. Tenchi shows up.
Page 20: ... and votes Far_Cry, putting him into a tie with Nadroj15, which is then broken when SerialClergyman switches his vote from FC to N15. And then goes on to argue that the doc claim might be fake, and switches his vote back to Far_Cry. He and Dank go around about that for a bit.
Page 21: Kikuchiyo takes Far_Cry back up to L-1. Mokina gives her the Fos and they go back and forth. (My replacing in takes Nadroj15's vote off so he's back down to L-2 now.)

Okay, that's what jumped out at me on reading the thread. Probably not much help to anybody else, but what can you do? I'll post some thoughts and questions later today, but it might not be until this evening.

[Gwynplaine]

First of all, I should say that I completely understand why people are voting for me/Nadroj15. The bandwagonning, "me too" posts, and lack of any real scumhunting contribution look really bad, I know. I'm hoping that if people are willing to give me the benefit of the doubt and not necessarily hold my predecessor's bad play against me too much.

I don't want to replace in and immediately hammer somebody, especially when he's not around to defend himself. Not because it would look bad for me if he flipped town (although admittedly it would), but because: a.) There's still some stuff I think we should talk about on Day One; and b.) I do think there's a slim chance that Far_Cry is just a nut and not necessarily scum, and if so then I'd rather petition for him to be replaced (since he's apparently away at camp for a week) and see how his replacement acts. After all, that's basically what I'm asking the rest of you to do with regards to Nadroj15 and me.

So there's that. And I have some questions. If they've been answered already and I missed it, a pointer to the relevant post(s) would be appreciated.

@Hero764: Just to get the answer in black and white: Does your role PM say that you know Mokina is pro-town?

@Mokina: Same question. Does your role PM say that you know Hero764 is pro-town?

@Lowell: Way back in your one long post, you ranked Qwints, Nadroj15, and Iamausername as the three scummiest players. Is that still your opinion?

@Nikanor: Do you have any thoughts? Questions? Anything at all you'd like to share with the rest of the class?

Gotta go. More later, or possibly tomorrow.

[Gwynplaine]

Okay, good. That's what I thought, but it's best to get these things clear rather than make assumptions and then feel stupid when they turn out not to be true.

[Gwynplaine]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If I hammer Far_Cry at this point,

regardless of his alignment/role

then Hero764 can say I'm "going with the flow." If I don't, then SerialClergyman, Mokina and Kikuchiyo can say I'm "useless" and "stalling."

The way I see it, there are four possibilities with Far_Cry:

1.) He's the doctor and he's acting scummy because he's a jackass.
2.) He's scum who fake-claimed doctor and he's acting scummy because he's not very good at not acting scummy.
3.) He's a vanilla townie who's acting scummy because he's a jackass and fake-claimed doctor because he's a huge jackass.
4.) He's some third-party role like survivor or serial killer who's acting scummy because he's a jackass and fake-claimed doctor to keep from getting lynched.

And it's a question of how to rank those from most to least likely. Objectively, #3 and #4 are pretty far-fetched, although Far_Cry himself planted the seeds of #4 in my mind with his "actor" speculation and his triple soft claim of Jester/third-party/town power role.

So, yeah. Call me all the names you want. I'm still puzzling this one out.

Meanwhile, SerialClergyman asked me a question:

If you didn't like the people bandwagoning you, who did you think did it in a scummy way?

You, for one. Seriously. For a while there, you were getting all up in Far_Cry and Hero764's faces about voting him/me without a good reason. In Post 417, you called Nadroj15 the least scummy of the "unuseful" players.

But then take a look at Post 477: I think Far_Cry is scum. Here's why. I think Dank is suspicious. Here's why -- including the fact that he jumped wagons too readily from Far_Cry to Nadroj15 and back to Far_Cry. Oh, and I'll go ahead and vote for nadroj15 because that's the current bandwagon.

And then post 480: Here are even more reasons I find Dank suspicious, including -- again -- switching to Nadroj15 after somebody else did without stating a reason. And I still think Far_Cry is scum, not the doc. Not changing my vote, though.

Finally, post 485: Oh, look. The Far_Cry wagon started up again. I'll jump back on it.

There's a saying about pots and kettles that applies here.

You know what? I think I just talked myself into a vote.

vote: SerialClergyman

[Gwynplaine]

Apologies in advance for a largely off-topic meta post, but I need to respond to this:

I don't like replacements.

Seconded on the dislike of replacements, especially when they are seemingly as useless as the ones they replaced.

the new, lame, already lurking replacements

First of all, you're welcome.

Second, the alternative to replacements is that players just flake and then games die. If that's what you'd prefer, then by all means, keep heaping abuse on people who are doing you a favor. If you insult them enough, eventually nobody will want to replace into your games.

[Gwynplaine]

Gwyn - your vote for me is just one of those meh things that happen in this game. If your main reason was my vote for you (double meh) then I'll address it below.

Ah, no. See, the main reason would actually be the stated reason that I included conveniently in the very same post with my vote. Namely, that you accuse dank of scumminess for behavior that seems from the outside virtually indistinguishable from your own.

This is not OMGUS here. I mean, do me a favor and at least pretend you don't think I'm an idiot. I'd find your behavior scummy no matter who the second bandwagon was.

SC doesn't, he actually posts long posts detailing his case and reasoning.

Here's the thing, though. I looked for those long posts detailing your case against Nadroj15, and I couldn't find them. Here is literally everything you posted about Nadroj15 from the time you joined the game up until you voted for him in Post 477:

You hadn't looked at nadroj much all game or declared any suspicion on him but you chose THAT MOMENT to vote him, just when votes were building against your bestest defending buddy FC.

Accusing Hero764 of starting the Nadroj bandwagon to derail the Far_Cry bandwagon.

As for Nadroj, I agree he's in the band of 3 players who are unuseful to the town (Wiirdo, FC and nadroj) but put him at least scummy in that band. Actually that's not quite true, I think he's probably just as if not more scummy than Wiirdo, but I objected ot the total lack of pressure Wiirdo had for essentially the same behaviour.

But personally, I don't see this as nadroj vs FC, I see this as FC = scummiest player and his lynch would either confirm 2 townies or crack open the entire scumteam. I can't argue with that maths.

Nadroj "unuseful", but less scummy than Far_Cry. Nadroj vs. FC not an issue.

I do not like dank's recent postings.

iso post 34 votes FC
iso post 35 votes nadroj
iso post 40 votes FC
iso post 44 unvotes
iso post 48 FoS's Mokina

Talk about going with the flow . It's really easy to throw your vote on the lurkers that other people are pointing out as scummy and attacking someone who is prepared to lynch the claimed doc.

FoS dank.

I guess nadroj becomes the play of the day then, until he fakeclaims something as well. vote nadroj

I'm going to do a re-read of dank and nadroj when I get a bit of time and try and convince myself either of them is a better case than FC.

Makes a case against Dank, then votes Nadroj out of convenience, because he's "the play of the day."

Plans to go look for a reason later.

Said reason is never divulged in the thread.

Dank has called you on this a couple of times. I called you on it earlier today. And you still haven't presented your actual reasons -- if any -- for voting nadroj.

It's not the bandwagon hopping so much, although that doesn't necessarily look townish either. This would be a very different game if everybody was required to present a unique individual reason for every vote. It's the hypocrisy and the lying that look scummy. Again, not to put too fine a point on it, you find dank's voting pattern scummy, but your own voting pattern is identical. When pressed, you conjure these phantom "long posts detailing [your] case and reasoning" -- a pathetic and bald-faced lie as everyone can clearly see because we all know how to read.

[Gwynplaine]

Also - you still haven't given us your opinion on Far Cry. All you've said is that you are selfishly worried about how you'll look whether you vote him or not - something that shouldn't worry townies, due to my aforementioned point about expendability.

That's funny, I thought I said the opposite of that. Maybe I was unclear, so I'll restate it.

People will criticize me, no matter what I do, and no matter what Far_Cry's (now ThAdmiral's) alignment and role are ultimately revealed to be. Therefore, I can't be swayed by that criticism one way or the other. That's why I wrote "Call me all the names you want."

Refusal to be bullied is not selfishness, and it's odd that you'd interpret it that way. Anyway, right now there are six people by my count who aren't voting for ThAdmiral, not including ThAdmiral himself. Maybe you should start browbeating some of them.

Further, and on a more general note, self-preservation is neither selfish nor scummy. Outside of broken setups and certain unusual scenarios (none of which apply here), town players have a legitimate interest in preventing the lynch of a player they know with 100% certain to be pro-town (i.e. themselves).

And just in case this wasn't clear either: I agree that Far_Cry's posts are pretty damn scummy-looking, and the doctor claim is dubious. I also think he played like a jackass. Can I accept, as Hero764 would have us believe, that the apparent scumminess is a mere side-effect of the jackassery? I have seen that happen plenty of times.

Now that Far_Cry has been replaced, I'm waiting for some kind of statement from ThAdmiral. I'm not sure what he could say that would sway the popular opinion away from his lynch, but I'm willing to hear him out before making a decision. There are four days until the deadline.

Gwyn has not overwhelmed me with his thoughts. Great that he participates, but I'm not sure what I'm looking at when I read his posts. I think he's trying to talk his way out of a lynch through sheer quantity of words. Happy with the vote.

Are you saying I should be more like you and Nikanor, then, and post mostly one-liners with little content?

[Gwynplaine]

Less than three days to the deadline now. If ThAdmiral is going to post anything, it better be soon.

Mod: Check the vote count. I should have two votes, not three, and Kikuchiyo should be in the "Not Voting" column.

Vote Count Fourteen

ThAdmiral: 5 (qwints, SerialClergyman, iamausername, Tenchi, Mokina)
Gwynplaine: 2 (Lowell, Hero 764)
Lowell: 1 (Nikanor)
SerialClergyman: 1 (Gwynplaine)

Not Voting: 3 (dank, kikuchiyo, ThAdmiral)

With 12 alive it's 7 to lynch.

Current deadline: Saturday, July 18th 8:10 AM EST

[Gwynplaine]

I'm not sure I follow the logic about the counterclaim, but the first paragraph of K's post above makes a lot of sense to me. If ThAdmiral is still alive on Day 2, maybe he'll see fit to show up and make a case for himself. In the meantime,

unvote

vote: Lowell

[Gwynplaine]

I'm starting to lose my town read on Kikuchiyo with these last few posts. Hero and Mokina claiming Lovers would have very bad play, the way I see it. Either we lynch one of them to "test" the claim and wind up with a double-mislynch, or we leave them alive and let the scum get a double-NK. Not seeing the benefit from the Lovers' POV.

I also thought her call for a day 2 doctor counterclaim in 579 was a bit iffy, although I'll confess to not thinking it through all that carefully. That, and the pushing for a mason claim way back in 168, kind of look suspicious.

I haven't played as many games as most of the people here, so I'm not going to weigh in on the general doctor vs. hider debate. In this case, it came down to a tossup between two claimed power roles and I thought Lowell looked scummier, notwithstanding the specific roles claimed.

Tenchi hasn't posted anywhere on the site since Thursday. So far he seems a little distracted, but that was true in the other game I played with him, so I think that's just Tenchi.

[Gwynplaine]

I'm not liking the sudden Tenchi-hate, either. Qwints is voting him for commenting about the night results, as far as I can see, which I always thought was a pretty flimsy "scum tell." And then kikuchiyo votes him for lurking, after he said he was busy and would be back on Thursday. Now maybe you don't believe him, that's fine, but announcing that you're going to be unavailable for a couple of days is generally considered a.) polite; and b.) not "lurking", per se.

I'm willing to be convinced, so if either of you can present a more detailed case against Tenchi, I'll certainly read it with an open mind. If not, it kind of looks like piling on the guy who's not around to defend himself.

[Gwynplaine]

For those not voting Tenchi: Why are you so confident that he is not scum? What exactly has he done that is "pro-town"?

You phrase this as if voting for Tenchi were the default position and the rest of us had made a conscious decision not to do so. In fact, the burden of proof lies on you and/or qwints to convince us why we should vote for him.

It's not that I'm confident that he's not scum, it's that I'm not confident that he is. Yes, I'd like him to contribute more, but I'd like everybody to contribute more. If it comes to that, there are probably people who'll say I should contribute more myself.

He's said that he'll be back today. I for one am willing to wait a few hours and see if he has anything to say. It's not as if a little patience were a luxury that we can't afford. The deadline's still eleven days away and if we somehow managed to hit the deadline with no votes changing, Tenchi would be lynched, having the most votes and more than one.

[Gwynplaine]

EBWOP: Cross-posted with Kikuchiyo going into more detail on the Tenchi case. I'll probably have more to say later if/when Tenchi shows up.

[Gwynplaine]

Okay, yeah. Nadroj15 played this game pretty badly. I won't argue that he didn't look kind of scummy, because obviously he did. But so did Far_Cry and look how that turned out. I can't really answer to a case against my predecessor, because I can't explain his posts any more than anyone else can.

So now Dank's on me about 529, saying essentially the same thing that Serial_Clergyman said in 542. I therefore refer you to post 544, where I wrote:

People will criticize me, no matter what I do, and no matter what Far_Cry's (now ThAdmiral's) alignment and role are ultimately revealed to be. Therefore, I can't be swayed by that criticism one way or the other. That's why I wrote "Call me all the names you want."

And now Dank is doing the thing that I predicted somebody would do -- trying to use the fact that I hesitated to hammer Far_Cry (who -- let us not forget -- was a claimed doctor and about to be replaced) as "evidence" against me. Possibly to distract attention from the fact that he was cheerleading for but not riding on the Tench bandwagon there.

Everybody likes to trot out the "expendable townie" argument when somebody acts like they don't want to be lynched, but as I said in 544:

Outside of broken setups and certain unusual scenarios (none of which apply here), town players have a legitimate interest in preventing the lynch of a player they know with 100% certain[ty] to be pro-town (i.e. themselves).

So that's old business. Any new business?

-Largely absent as the discussion on FC vs Lowell goes on for two pages-

Those two pages comprise a little over 36 hours (from the morning of the 15th to the evening of the 16th). I do try to check the thread at least once a day, but sometimes other things take precedence.

This looks exactly like one of nadroj's posts.

I think at least the spelling and grammar are a little better. Seriously, though, I could have put more thought and effort into that post. It was late in the evening, I had other stuff going on, and I made a half-hearted, not very well-thought-out post. I hope that we're not all judged by the worst post we make.

-Again absent for a few pages, with vote safely on Lowell-

And again, in the real world time doesn't pass in "pages", it passes in hours and minutes. I voted for Lowell in Post 581, on Thursday night, putting him at L-2. I didn't get a chance to look at the thread at all on Friday, and by the time I checked in on Saturday the hammer had been dropped. I'm sorry if having a job and real-life commitments is scummy in your eyes, but there's nothing I can do about that.

[Gwynplaine]

Or you could, you know, read what I actually wrote at the time:

I don't want to replace in and immediately hammer somebody, especially when he's not around to defend himself.

Not because it would look bad for me

if he flipped town (although admittedly it would), but because: a.)

There's still some stuff I think we should talk about on Day One;

and b.) I do think

there's a slim chance that Far_Cry is just a nut and not necessarily scum

, and if so then I'd rather petition for him to be replaced (since he's apparently away at camp for a week) and see how his replacement acts.

and:

I'm still puzzling this one out.

and:

And just in case this wasn't clear either: I agree that Far_Cry's posts are pretty damn scummy-looking, and the doctor claim is dubious. I also think he played like a jackass.

Can I accept, as Hero764 would have us believe, that the apparent scumminess is a mere side-effect of the jackassery? I have seen that happen plenty of times.

Now that Far_Cry has been replaced,

I'm waiting for some kind of statement from ThAdmiral.

I'm not sure what he could say that would sway the popular opinion away from his lynch, but

I'm willing to hear him out before making a decision.

There are four days until the deadline.

I don't think any of that is particularly unclear or hard to follow. I bolded some stuff anyway, just in case anybody missed it.

[Gwynplaine]

First of all, ThAdmiral was still a claimed doctor. As a general rule, I'd have to be really, really convinced of scumminess before hammering a claimed doctor with no counter-claim on Day One. So yeah, the fact that I even considered it means I thought Far_Cry looked awfully scummy.

Secondly, I voted Lowell for pretty the same reason(s) that six other people did: bandwagon-hopping, giving bogus reasons for his votes ("maybe that was someone else"?), pretending to think that there was a serious danger of a Day One no-lynch. That kind of thing.

Thirdly, and this is kind of a miinor point, but I never said I thought Far_Cry was "the scummiest." I said that there was "a slim chance" of him not being scum, and that his posts were "pretty damn scummy-looking." But I never used the superlative. I'll thank you to stop trying to lie to me about what I wrote.

[Gwynplaine]

To me, the lack of scumhunting is the biggest point about Gwyn. He asked some weak questions yestereday and started a case on me, and abandoned it at deadline - that's fine. But what about today? Am I less scummy? Who are your suspects?

That's a fair cop. I have been lazier in this game than is fair to the rest of the players. Not that I'm alone in that regard, but "he did it too" isn't a valid excuse past the first grade, so never mind that.

I just went through Day One looking only at votes, trying to see if there's any interesting patterns there. It's getting late, but I promise a bigger post tomorrow.

I did want to say one other thing, just in passing, about this:

Lowell was a claimed information role. You did not vote for him following his claim. This is something pro-town (or at least something not anti-town) that you have done in this game, unlike kiku, dank, qwints, Nikanor or Gwyn.

The only people who voted for Lowell

following

his claim were Mokina, dank, and ThAdmiral, in that order. (The two of them whose alignments we know so far turned out to be pro-town themselves, but that's neither here nor there.) The rest of us failed to unvote following the claim, but that's not exactly the same thing.

[Gwynplaine]

I have already claimed

You did, didn't you? At L-2, and with nobody asking you to. Huh. I really don't know what to make of that. I don't necessarily buy into the opinion that vanilla townies shouldn't ever claim, but I don't like unprompted vanilla townie claims very much, either. But that's a gameplay issue, not a town/scum tell, and I'm reading it as more frustration on your part than anything else.

Tenchi meanwhile continues to be extremely Tenchi-like, which means I can't get a solid town or scum read from him. That's not a meta defense so much as an admission of my general lack of experience. He's not posting anywhere else on site other than the newbie game he's modding, unlike say Nikanor, who's posted elsewhere as recently as Friday -- two days after his last post in this thread. His sig says he'll be V/LA "until Sunday" which I assume means today. His disappearing act is a bit unsettling, given that he replaced Wiirdo, who was very big on the active lurking, and lurked himself for five actual days before starting to contribute to the game. He's been prodded, so I'm waiting to see what happens with that.

[Gwynplaine]

You remember earlier, when I said:

I just went through Day One looking only at votes, trying to see if there's any interesting patterns there

Turns out, not really. At least nothing that looks meaningful to me.

In other news,

People who need to post more: Nikanor, Tenchi.

People I'm suspicious of:

SerialClergyman still sets off alarm bells for me, but other than the stuff we went over on Day One, I can't point to anything concrete. He gets an IGMEOY at worst right now.

Qwints. Here's a thing. He's spent a lot of time alternately calling kikuchiyo scummy and buddying up/defending her. Frex (all Post #'s are iso):

#10:

Please note that Kiku has 6 votes in 14 posts - that's bordering on ridiculous. I also really don't like Kiku's rolefishing so early on.

#12:

Whoa, Kiku - slow down.

It's WAY to early to be talking about a quick lynch. You seem awfully eager to force a claim early.

#14:

@Kiku, I think it was scummy to say "let's lynch hero now or at least make him claim" because it was premature. There's no need to argue about the semantics of it. I just don't like the fact that you're so eager to get a claim so early.

#15:

I really don't like Hero v. Kiku right now. Both come off as really scummy to me...I still think Hero's play has been anti-town, but I don't think Kiku is doing much better.

#20:

It was good scumhunting, just a unlucky target.

#40:

The last two pages have me considering a dank, fc, kiku scum team.

#47:

This is such a anti-town statement that I'm almost willing to policy lynch Kiku for it.

And then on Day Two:

#56.

Your major premise is fine (people who rolefish are scummy) but you need to work on your minor premise (Kiku rolefished) before you reach the conclusion that Kiku is scummy.

He does finally get around to voting her on Day Two after her "go ahead and lynch me" post.

#60:

Kiku is trying to avoid scrutiny with AtE, that's scummy.

I'm also always suspicious of people who misinterpret the game rules, as qwints did in#53. Sure, people can and do just skim the rules post, but I've also seem scum use feigned misunderstanding or misremembering of the rules to spread confusion/doubt among the townsfolk and trick them into hasty mistakes.

vote: qwints

[Gwynplaine]

EBWOP: Accidentally dropped a paragraph when rearranging things.

It's interesting that for all his accusations on Day One, he never got around to voting for kikuchiyo until somebody else started the bandwagon. Scum distancing? Or maybe just testing the waters and waiting for somebody else to cast the first vote?

Vote Count Four

qwints: 2 (Gwynplaine, iamausername)
kikuchiyo: 2 (qwints, SerialClergyman)
Gwynplaine: 1 (dank)
DTMaster: 1 (kikuchiyo)

Not Voting: 2 (Nikanor, DTMaster)

With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Current Deadline: Monday, August 10 4:00 PM EST

Tenchi was replaced later on this page by DTMaster.

[Gwynplaine]

Speaking of people who need to post more:

@Mod: Would you please prod dank and Tenchi? Neither of them has posted in about four days.

[Gwynplaine]

@qwints: What about the times you called Kikuchiyo scummy on Day One, after the mason claim?

[Gwynplaine]

@ Town
While we are scum hunting I find it disturbing that no effort is done to find the SK/Werewolf. (See the second kill) Thoughts on SK/Werewolf suspects?

I'm just looking for scum. I don't particularly care which flavor of scum we lynch first.

[Gwynplaine]

That's generally how I've seen it used.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Scum

[Gwynplaine]

This thread's gone awfully quiet.

[Gwynplaine]

1. Yes.
a. That's a bit of a loaded question there, since I never said anything about her making an appeal to emotion, let alone said appeal "proving" anything about her alignment. I got a very solid town read on her early on, which wavered a bit a couple of times, as I've said before. Over the last couple of pages she seems more like a genuinely frustrated townie (call it "AtE" if you must) than scum pretending to be frustrated.

Rolling back a post:

Also to the town: Everyone said we have 3 scum players in town. I just want to clarify if this meant we have a 3 man mafia team in game or a 2 man mafia team and a SK/Werewolf.

"Everyone" didn't say that. I don't recall anyone saying that in so many words. What we know is that there were two kills last night, both on claimed town power roles. We can draw some obvious conclusions from that fact, but we should be careful not to assume too much. I'll just leave it at that as I'm not sure that a lot of setup speculation would be particularly helpful at this point.

[Gwynplaine]

That's possible, but it depends on a couple of things we don't know, like how many scum there are and exactly how their victory condition is worded. Probably better to focus on finding them and lynching them than to worry about what will happen if we don't.

@Mod: I know it's the weekend and all, but can we get prods on SerialClergyman (last posted four days ago), dank (last posted four days ago), iamausername (last posted three days ago), and qwints (last posted three days ago)?

[Gwynplaine]

But a few people, while decrying her appeal to emotion, essentially unvoted because of it.

This is true if we take "a few" to mean "one" and "decry" to mean "mention." Otherwise, it's a complete misrepresentation.

[Gwynplaine]

That's L-1, unless I'm very much mistaken. Qwints, anything to say in your defense, or would you rather go on with your doomed "Kikuchiyo is scummy because she's scummy" line of attack?

[Gwynplaine]

That's an interesting claim. It seems like there are at least six possible scenarios, given this claim and the Night One results. And now I'm going into some of that setup speculation that I wasn't too crazy about earlier, but I think it might help to at least enumerate the possibilities to make sure there's nothing I'm overlooking.

I. Qwints is telling the truth:
I.A. Two killing roles: Werewolf team and anti-werewolf vigilante. Werewolves kill Hero764 (claimed mason). Vigilante Qwints kills ThAdmiral (claimed doctor).
I.B. Three killing roles: Mafia team, werewolf team and anti-werewolf vigilante. Targets as above, plus mafia also targets either ThAdmiral or Hero764.
I.C. Three killing roles: Werewolf team, SK, and anti-werewolf vigilante. Targets as above, substituting "SK" for "mafia".

(I'm ruling out what might be a possible "I.D", where there are three killing roles: Mafia team, werewolf SK and anti-werewolf vigilante, because Qwints explicitly said "werewolves", plural.)

II. Qwints is lying (and therefore must almost certainly be either mafia or non-werewolf SK and afraid that somebody tracked him and/or watched ThAdmiral):
II.A. Two killing roles: Mafia team and Werewolf team.
II.B. Two killing roles: Mafia team and Werewolf SK.
II.C. Two killing roles: Werewolf team and SK.

I.B. seems to be the scenario Kikuchiyo is considering, whereas I assumed Qwints was implying I.A, because he specified "I'm hunting the werewolves." If there were both mafia and werewolves, why would the vigilante only be trying to eliminate one anti-town faction?

Even if we believe the claim, I'm not sure a vigilante who offs the claimed doctor Night One is an asset. Like Kikuchiyo I'm waiting to hear more details on the vig claim. One-shot, limited shots, every night?

Also, I know some people say the town should try and get a claimed vigilante to make a town-directed kill to confirm their alignment, but I see some potential drawbacks to that idea, especially if we're close to a LYLO/MYLO situation.

My vote stays for now.

[Gwynplaine]

There is an open setup like that, with a killing werewolf group and a non-killing mafia group. I forget what it's called.

I still think it's more likely that Qwints is lying.

[Gwynplaine]

My intent was always to kill FC rather than have the town lynch him as I thought we would gain a significant amount of information from his night kill. Furthermore, I assumed that scum would kill Thadmiral if he really was the doctor.

Always? Really? Is that why you spent so much time pushing for his lynch and put him at L-1 the second time (after he claimed doctor, just so we're clear on that)? I'm not sure what you mean by gaining a significant amount of information from his night kill.

At least your second sentence makes sense. He really was the doctor, and the scum (i.e. you) did kill him.

[Gwynplaine]

Seriously, DT, why the unvote? This guy is guilty as hell.

You're not voting for him either. Just sayin'.

[Gwynplaine]

Most likely we have werewolves and an sk.

Why is that most likely?

though I still find the unvote suspect

Is DTMaster's unvote more "suspect" than yours? Why or why not?

[Gwynplaine]

Have you been in a game with "stabbing" mafia?

Yes. In fact, I've

only

been in games with "stabbing" mafia: Newbie 707 and Mini 777.

Other than argument from flavor text, is there any reason to assume that 8:3:1 town/werewolves/sk is more likely than 8:2:2 town/werewolves/mafia or even 8:3:1 town/mafia/werewolf?

[Gwynplaine]

I can't

believe

anybody would fall for this crap.

I mean, look back at when I mentioned the possibility of a town-directed vig. What's the first thing qwints said? "I'm willing to follow the town's direction to night kill despite the chance of a role block." In other words, "If you tell me to kill a townie, I will, but if you tell me to kill my scum partner I'll just claim I was role-blocked." Why would a serial killer want to be sure to get that excuse mentioned well in advance?

Kikuchiyo's last few posts have me seriously considering a kiku/qwints scum team. Talk about coaching. "They're not buying the vig claim. Quick, claim serial killer and I'll come up with some specious reasoning why it's better to keep a serial killer alive than lynch them."

My vote stays, with an additional

HoS: kikuchiyo.

[Gwynplaine]

EBWOP:

Also:

SK = Werewolf?

No. Qwints admits he killed ThAdmiral. Hero764 was killed by a werewolf.

[Gwynplaine]

You cannot simultaneously argue that qwints is a serial killer and that I'm his scumbuddy.

[Gwynplaine]

Gwyn ... [h]as been scattered with his attacks throughout day 2.

Gwyn ... seemeed to be casting a wide net of suspicion with nothing to back it up.

I'd respond to this if I had a better idea of what y'all were on about. As I recall, on Day 2 I pretty much: a.) defended myself against dank

without

accusing him of anything, b.) laid out a case on qwints,

who turned out to be scum

, and c.) expressed suspicion of kikuchiyo for (among other things) her heroic efforts at keeping qwints alive after his obviously bogus vig claim. Oh, and d.) I expressed some skepticism at the nascent Tenchi bandwagon, again without accusing anybody of being anything other than mistaken. So I guess expressing suspicion of two different people is "scattered" or "casting a wide net?" The latter coming from someone who -- it seems to me -- has voted for, FoS'd, or accused every other player in the game at some point.

--

@Mod (and everybody):

I don't know how feasible it would be to get a replacement or even a temporary replacement for dank at this point. Maybe a deadline extension instead?

[Gwynplaine]

I have no problem with a mass claim. I'd say the person who first proposed it goes first and then each person picks who goes after them. (I think that's what SC means by "popcorn," but I'm unfamiliar with that term and didn't see it in the wiki.)

I also don't have a problem with waiting for Dank -- Kikuchiyo's not around for the next week anyway and then it's only another three days until Dank is back, right?

[Gwynplaine]

I'm not a big fan of trying to get information by analyzing the night kills. Usually either it's an obvious choice (claimed doctor, claimed cop, confirmed townie) or else it's too fraught with WIFOM to draw any useful conclusions. For example, "WIFOM" appears five times in DTMaster's 861. I find myself wondering whether the whole thing is an attempt to focus town's attention on the night kill and away from what people actually post in the thread.

I did want to respond to a couple of points, though.

3. If Nik represented a threat to any player, this is the best time to set up what I pointed in number 2 and get rid of a threat. (Sorry but I guess this is WIFOM) This would implicate Gwyn heavily (see Nik's iso throughout) and iam (only very slightly. not enough to just base a case on.) in Nik's iso 16.

Really? Let's look at everything Nikanor ever posted about me:

'm not liking Gwynplaine's day two posts. As far as I can see from his posts in isolation, he has pointed itty bitty suspicions at just about everyone, without a single FoS or vote yet. Care to share your suspicions so far, Gwyn?

There's that "itty bitty suspicions at just about everyone" thing that Kikuchiyo and SerialClergyman were saying. Maybe there's some unintended inference that people are drawing from my posts, but honestly I don't see it -- I never "pointed itty bitty suspicions at just about everyone." Up to the point of Nikanor's post above, on Day Two I had expressed mixed feelings about Kikuchiyo, reiterated my Day One distrust of SerialClergyman, and called out Nikanor and Tenchi for lurking (which is

not

the same thing as casting suspicion on them). In no possible sense of the words does that constitute "pointing itty bitty suspicions at just about everyone."

and later:

Well, I don't KNOW who is scum, but if I were to list my top three suspicions it would look like dank, qwints, and Gwyn. The only problem I have with this is Gwyn's post attacking qwints, but that could very easily just be distancing.

That's not exactly an unanswerable case against me, there. (Also, he ignored the fact that dank was also voting for me at the time he wrote that. More "distancing" I suppose.)

4.I think Wiirdo was mainly forgotten from Nik's play. The only pattern that came from the two was a suspicion on Nadroj and Lowell. While Nik did replace Wiirdo, two people with similar suspicions have pointed out enough times to raise some red flags.

Wiirdo was mainly forgotten because he posted a total of ten times in the thread, most of which had little or no content other than to say "Me too" or defend himself from charges of lurking.

[Gwynplaine]

Looks like the game is starting up again.

So, let me know how right you think I am, because I think I am pretty goddamn right.

Well, I know for a fact you're wrong about me. You've helpfully put links in your post so the hypothetical interested reader can click through and see what I actually wrote, and how it's often somewhat different from your interpretation here.

Post 512. I've addressed that a couple of times now. You may not like my explanation of what I meant, but I can't give you another one. I know what I meant. I think it was clear, and I think my subsequent explanation was equally clear.

Post 544. This is not a "defense" in any sense of the word that I'm familiar with, so it can't actually be a

tu quoque

defense.

Post 581. Well, not "no reason at all." I was swayed by kikuchiyo's argument in 579. As I said.

Posts 651 and 658. At that point, dank wasn't on the Tenchi bandwagon (although as I pointed out later, he was certainly cheerleading for it). Since I was talking about the people who were voting for Tenchi vs. the people who weren't, I couldn't very well have put dank into the first category.

Post 699. I still stand by my case here. Maybe I quoted too many "attacking" posts but there are cleary

two

"buddying" posts there, not one: #20 and #56. With at least one "attacking" post before, in between, and after them, I think I'm justified in calling this behavior "alternating." Also, you'll note that his shifting attitude toward kikuchiyo was not my only reason for voting for him.

Oh, and for 631. As of this writing I have completed exactly one game of mafia, Newbie 707. I was in Mini 777 and had to replace out after about a week due to illness. Those games and this one are the only games of mafia I have ever played anywhere, online or face-to-face. Not playing the newbie card here, just setting the facts straight.

[Gwynplaine]

* Gwyn's lack of acknowledgement of dank being on the kiku wagon. I didn't notice this at the time but in hindsight it's just so obvious. It looks to be actually a really clever piece of manipulation.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

[Gwynplaine]

What about the whole thing? What about the theory? Where's the indignation, the counter-arguments, the explanations?

Scroll up.

[Gwynplaine]

Gwyn, do you think dank is scum? If so, who's his partner? If not, who is scum?

As you might have guessed, I had myself really sold on Qwints/Kikuchiyo at the end of Day Two. Qwints flipping SK rather than mafia really threw me for a loop there. I wouldn't be surprised at Dank/Kikuchiyo. They've spent a lot of time agreeing with each other all game, and yet I seem to recall they usually weren't voting for the same person.* I'm kind of taking the opposite view from SerialClergyman, in that I think scum would be careful

not

to be seen on the same bandwagon together too many times if they could help it. Also, Dank's the only person left alive that Kikuchiyo hasn't accused of being scum and/or voted for at some point.

*(I have a file on my other computer with just the votes from Day One and Day Two, which I was trying to use to get some kind of vote pattern analysis going earlier. If I get a chance later today I'll look at that and either quantify this statement or withdraw it. Right now, just looking at the vote counts that are in their own posts, they were voting the same person three times and different people 13 times. Excluding times that neither of them was voting, but including times that only one of them was voting. One of the times they were together was the final count of Day One, the Lowell lynch. That's probably not an unexpected ratio for two randomly-selected players, but given the fact that they seem to be in agreement so often in the discussion, I'd have expected to see their votes agreeing more often.)

---

I was talking about this:

Anyway, right now there are six people by my count who aren't voting for ThAdmiral, not including ThAdmiral himself. Maybe you should start browbeating some of them.

Oh. I thought you were talking about this:

Are you saying I should be more like you and Nikanor, then, and post mostly one-liners with little content?

But anyway, the bit you were talking about

still

isn't a "defense" in any sense of the word. It's nothing to do with whether I'm scum or not, it's about SerialClergyman trying to pressure me into hammering the claimed doctor. I'm telling him to peddle his case elsewhere, because I'm not buying it. That's not a "defense", and it's certainly not acknowledging a "valid point" against me.

No, you weren't talking about "people who were voting Tenchi"

Don't lie to me about what I wrote. In Post 651:

Qwints is

voting

him for commenting about the night results, as far as I can see, which I always thought was a pretty flimsy "scum tell." And then kikuchiyo

votes

him for lurking

In Post 658:

You phrase this as if

voting

for Tenchi were the default position and the rest of us had made a conscious decision not to do so. In fact, the burden of proof lies on you and/or qwints to convince us why we should

vote

for him.

I goddamn well

was

talking about voting. That's why the words

vote

and

voting

appear in prominent positions in each post.

Having said that, I absolutely agree that dank's cheerleading for the Tenchi wagon while not actually riding on it was suspicious. I think I even said so, in 677. (And yes, before you reply to that, I know that you and SerialClergyman had pointed it out earlier.)

---

Gwyn - do you think that you've adequately addressed the case against you with your objections? Do you think dank is scummy?

Pretty much, yeah. And yeah, pretty much.

[Gwynplaine]

Gwyn - I would say that ~70% of the case against dank is his very suspicious interaction with you specifically.

...

So given you're claiming not to be his partner, why do you think he's scum?

Yeah, I'm gonna need you to show me the math on your 70% figure. By my count, looking at Iamausername's big rehash posts, about half of Dank's posts that he points out are Dank's attacks on Hero and the "masons". Of the remainder, about half deal with him not voting for nadroj/me (and one is that he

did

vote for me on Day Two, which is a bit of Iam eating his cake and having it too), and the rest are his attacks on Far_Cry, feigning surprise at the presence of werewolves and then immediately correcting himself, campaigning against Tenchi without voting him, and other small inconsistencies. So the proportion that deals with me is closer to 25% than 70%. At least by my reckoning.

I can still agree with the other 75%. The biggies to me are: the whole Tenchi wagon thing, "Werewolves? What werewolves?" and "So the serial killer is a werewolf?" (812). I'm also (as I said) suspicious of his interaction with Kikuchiyo, but having reviewed the thread again I'm doubting whether anybody would be bold enough to tell their scum partner to "shut up and hammer."

---

Wait you were surprised Qwints flipped SK? Even with the vig claim that qwints did and he admitted to targeting the doc, and the fact that we speculated about werewolves being part of the setup, you still suspected the Kiku/Qwints team?

Yes. See my posts at the end of Day Two.

---

while still being wholly inadequate, at least he's trying to pick a few holes)

Where "picking a few holes" means "pointing out complete falsehoods."

---

On a general note, not only is Dank not around, I'm not sure our mod is either. Anybody heard from DrakeTheFake, or seen him posting elsewhere on the site lately?

---

Finally, and really apropos of nothing ...

I'm afraid that if he's scum then he's certainly going to win.

I'm in the same boat, if you or iam are scum I essentially can't win.

If it turns out that you two are the scum team, this exchange will be retrospectively hilarious.

[Gwynplaine]

SC pretty much covered the scum team thinking, so I'll just add my own thoughts/observations.

When I replaced in, nadroj was looking like the obvious lynch candidate (after the doc claim), so I figured my best bet was to get some distance between me and SC by going after him first thing. The funny thing is I really

wasn't

concerned about looking scummy in that much-discussed post, because I thought I'd be the Day One lynch anyway.

Iam pretty much had me nailed on Day 3, but everybody was so convinced that SC was town that I felt like we had a good shot of winning even if I got lynched. After I flipped wolf, dank would have had a really tough time of it.

I'm kind of surprised that nobody picked up on the one big scum slip that I did make, which was changing my story on why I didn't unvote Lowell after the hider claim. At first I said I thought Lowell was scummier than FC, regardless of their roleclaims, but then when dank went after me on Day 2, I forgot I'd written that and said that I hadn't seen the roleclaim until after Lowell was already hammered.

Other things: I really honestly did think that kiku and qwints were a team. I thought 8:2:2 was a more likely setup than 9:2:1. Especially with the number of power roles we saw on Day 1 (which turned out to be all the power roles, but I obviously didn't know that at the time), and the fact
that qwints killed the doctor -- I thought a mafia team would be more likely to take out the doc than an SK would. In retrospect, the town lovers make the setup closer to 8:2:1, and that's probably more balanced than 7:2:2.

Also I'll just pat myself on the back for predicting that ThAdmiral would protect Mokina rather than Hero on Night One.

[Gwynplaine]

Note to town: Claimed serial killers shouldn't be lynched in those situations.

Mmm, I don't think so. I mean, yeah, in the best-case scenario you lynch a werewolf instead, the SK NK's the other werewolf, then the next day you lynch the SK and win. But I think that's a pretty unlikely scenario.

Consider that the T:W:SK ratio was 5:2:1 at that point. If you don't lynch the SK, you've got a 29% change of lynching a werewolf and a 71% chance of lynching a townie. Either way, we go to night (at 4:2:1 or 5:1:1).

That night, the werewolves will kill a townie (because a.) the SK claimed NK-immune and b.) it's not to their benefit to kill him anyway.) In the 4:2:1 scenario, there's a 17% chance that the SK kills the same townie as the wolves did, a 50% chance he kills a different townie, and a 33% chance he kills one of the werewolves. In the 5:1:1 scenario, there's a 17% chance that he kills the same townie, a 67% chance he kills a different townie, and a 17% chance he kills the remaining werewolf.

So the possible lineups on the next day are, from most to least likely:

(3:1:1) 42%
(2:2:1): 36%
(3:2:1): 12%
(4:1:1): 5%
(4:0:1): 5%

Taking these one by one:

(3:1:1) If you lynch the SK now, and go into night at 3:1:0, the wolf NKs a townie and the next day you're at a classic 2:1 lylo.

If you don't lynch the SK now, you've got a 25% chance of lynching the remaing wolf and eventually winning (night is 3:0:1, next day is 2:0:1), and a 75% chance of lynching a townie and going into night at 2:1:1, which I think is always a town loss. The wolf NKs a townie, and the SK has a 33% chance of NKing the same townie, a 33% chance of NKing the other townie, and a 33% chance of NKing the wolf. So the next day you're at 1:1:1, 0:1:1, or 1:0:1, none of which the town can win.

(2:2:1) Now you CAN'T lynch the SK, because that's an instant win for the wolves. But you can't lynch anybody else either, because then you go into night at 1:2:1 or 2:1:1, and there's no town win coming out of those. Even if you were able to get a No Lynch (and it wouldn't be in either the wolves' or the SK's best interests to vote No Lynch), you'd go into night at 2:2:1, and I don't see any town win scenario there, either. Wolves always NK a townie. SK NK's that same townie (25%), a different townie (25%), or a wolf (50%) and then you're into the next day at 1:2:1, 0:2:1, or 1:0:1.

(3:2:1) Again, you can't lynch the SK without triggering an autowin for the wolves. 60% of the time you lynch a townie and go into night at 2:2:1, which is a town loss. The other 40% of the time you lynch one of the wolves and go into night at 3:1:1. The wolf NKs a townie, and the SK can either NK the same townie (25%), a different townie (50%) or the wolf (25%), sending you into the next day at 2:1:1, 1:1:1, or 2:0:1, only the latter of which is a town win.

(4:1:1) If you lynch the SK, you go into night at 4:1, and the next day you're in a 3:1 lylo. If you don't lynch the SK, 20% of the time you hit scum and go into night at 4:0:1, and the next day you're at 3:0:1 and you know who the SK is so you can lynch him and win. The other 80% of the time, you go into night at 3:1:1, with possible outcomes as described above.

(4:0:1) Lynch the SK and win.

The math here all assumes lynches and NKs are effectively random. Obviously, you can do better than random chance and that will affect the numbers somewhat, but it seems to me the town-loss scenarios will still outnumber the town-win scenarios. Also, the percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

[Gwynplaine]

EBWOB: There's a typo in the (2:2:1) scenario. The last line should be "... you're into the next day at 1:2:1, 0:2:1, or 1:1:1."

[Gwynplaine]

At 4:2, lynching randomly every day wins for town 1/12 of the time, or about 8%. That's a 1/3 chance of hitting one of the two wolves the first day and a 1/4 chance of hitting the remaining wolf the next day. With strategic no-lynches (and assuming the wolves don't just no-kill in response), you can increase those odds to around 13%. (No lynch the first day, 2/5 chance of hitting a wolf the second day, no lynch on the third day and 1/3 chance of getting the final wolf on the last day.)

You're also neglecting that a.) qwints claimed (one-shot) NK-immune and there was no way we were going to waste a kill (or two) testing that; and b.) in most of the scenarios, if the SK is trying to win he's hoping to kill townies and not werewolves. Some of that depends on how exactly the victory conditions were worded, of course, but it seems like the SK would win if any day started out 0:1:1 or 1:0:1, because then he can't be lynched. Which means he's only going to try and kill a wolf if the night starts out 1:2:1 or 2:2:1. Once a wolf is lynched, he definitely wants to kill townies, because he loses on a day that starts 2(+):0:1.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see how falsely claiming serial killer would ever help anybody win the game, unless they were a jester.