Mini 811: Foggy Londontown Mafia - Over!

[DTMaster]

Hi Everyone! I'm going to re-read and post a summary of my current thoughts. I'll try to give my interpretations to any questions that were pending on Tenchi but I can't guarantee that it is what Tenchi actually wanted to do.

[DTMaster]

One request as I reread. If you asked a question to Tenchi and it is still pending can you list them in a summary post. It will make my life easier as I work on this post (and in case I miss a question).

[DTMaster]

A quick logistics question:

@Serialclergyman (and at quints partially due to the quote)

I think you mean that kiku found the lovers, not the masons. Moko and Hero claimed masons but the night kill results tells us otherwise (abet a moot point since either would most likely be town aligned).

Reading that exchange bugged me since it wasn't accurate.

@quints
Wait what?

Kiku's meltdown was completely out-of-character from her day 1 play.

Kiku's hyper-aggressiveness struck me as scummy,

but there is no denying that she found two linked players. It's just bad luck that they happened to be masons. That's why I didn't buy tenchi's attack on Kiku for rolefishing, but why i voted her when she tried to pre-empt discussion with a hyperbolic AtE.

Now you do a flip and say:

I found kiku's weird change of behavior scummy.

Her aggressiveness was a null tell.

Which is it? Did you find her aggressive behavior acceptable on day 1, or did you not?

a. If you agree that her aggression was null-tell then what made you change your thoughts from your previous statement?

b. If you didn't agree with her aggression, then why did you consider the aggression a null-tell?

I'm still absorbing the day 1 events and need a little time to revisit some parts before forming a case. I'm just shocked to see 4 PRs outed and killed like that. (Rereading FC and Hero's exchange gave me a headache the first read through ><)

[DTMaster]

But at the time she was pushing for a mason claim. We did not know that the lovers were part of the setup and very little was implied after Moko and Hero's mason claim.

Furthermore, kiku's attacks turned out to be somewhat warranted due to the existence of the lovers.

Kiku stated that she would like to push for the lovers lynch only if they claimed it, since you cannot guarantee a lover's alignment. What she did push for was a mason claim (so confirm two town PRs) and a day 2 doc counter claim depending on the NKs.

This spurred on the whole role fishing debate. Your statement makes little sense if you look at it in the context of what the town knew at the time. You can only say this argument is justified if Kiku knew that they were lovers on day 1.

I, personally, dislike hyper aggressive play.it tends to strike me as scummy. But I realize that both town and scum can be hyperagressive...I can dislike a playstyle but still realize it's not a scum tell. Kiku's sudden change of behavior, on the other hand, is not consistent with townie play.

Everyone has their own opinions on play style, which makes the forum interesting when you meet someone unique. I agree that consistency is the best town-tell in any game. While your statement is acceptable for a question on mafia theory, you still didn't answer my question:

Do you see Kiku's actions before day 2 as scummy or not and why?

We can all agree that Kiku's AtE argument doesn't sit well with anyone, myself included. But you haven't directly answered the contradictory statements I pointed out in your recent posts.

[DTMaster]

I'm at work so my time is limited. I'll just respond to the posts that were addressed to me. My summary post is still in the making and I need more rereading time to reexamine the arguements on day 1.

Given the fact that hero and mokina were linked and had more info than the rest of the town, I do not believe kiku pressuring them was scummy. I didn't like her early vote hopping or her demand for a claim, but I think those actions were a null tell given the behavior of hero and mokina.

This point is valid since Hero, Mokina (and FC/Admiral and Lowell) had various slips that could be interpreted as scummy. The late breadcrumbing argument was justfied and the lover pair played inconsistantly, with faulty/weak logic.

The problem with the alleged contradiction you point out is that it does not allow that evaluations of player's actions should change based on later information gained about alignment.

This is not justified for two reasons.

First is that you could have outlined that your opinion has changed from the initial analysis. There is nothing in the question to stop you from that. I would have accepted: As of now with the current information I see X person as scummy/not scummy for Y reason. This is changed from Z position due to A, B and C arguments.

Secondly, you need to consider both positions. First is to look in hindsight with what we know now. Secondly is to consider what we knew considering the context of the time period. You can easily point out a ton of hints/signs/town or scum tells in hindsight after we confirm the person's alignment. But predicting a person's alignment is much more difficult.

To directly address your question:
On day 1, before the mason claim, I found kiku's behavior scummy.After the mason claim, I re-evaluated her behavior. I now think it is a null tell - that is, it is consistent with both townie and scum play.

I agree with the null tell argment. Can you give me your interpretation on how the mason claim could have benifited town though.

The key is that I "found" kiku's aggressiveness scummy; past tense.currently, I think they are a null tell given what we now know.even though kiku didn't know they lied about the mason claim, she did correctly detect mokina's inconsisticies re: hero, which justified her play.

Very true.

That is why her sudden change of behavior is so bizzare and scummy.

Yes this inconsistancy is very glaring at the moment. an AtE move is very weak in comparison with her day 1 play. This is a very WIFOMish question but can you reason out why she would choose such a sub-optimal play right after her agressive move.

@ Town
While we are scum hunting I find it disturbing that no effort is done to find the SK/Werewolf. (See the second kill) Thoughts on SK/Werewolf suspects?

[DTMaster]

@Kikuchiyo

HOLD IT. Read Post 579 first. Now consider the results of the night kill.

1. Your Post 579 would had us to analyze the results of the night kill to determine under what conditions is Admiral/FC is most likely scum and what conditions they are town. (Ie. If they survive + scum points, if they die then it is town confirmation) This is a much better route to go since we are expanding on Admiral/FC's case (and the fact that Admiral failed to post his defense. This means there were pending questions left unanswered)

2. The night results show that the difference from lynching Lowell and lynching Admiral/FC have no advantage. In Scum POV they have just read 4 PR claims in one day: 2 Masons, 1 Hider, and 1 Doctor.

a. If we chose to lynch Admiral/FC the biggest threat closest to a doctor is a hider since he is able to confirm town/scum alignment. Lowell would have been a prime NK target.

b. We witnessed what happened when we lynched Lowell instead.

Therefore this current debate on the Lowell vs Admiral/FC lynch debate is very pointless since we would most likely be in the same situation we are at the moment from either lynches. The only way anyone could have averted this was lynching someone other then the 4 people who claimed PRs.

[DTMaster]

Btw I replaced Tenchi. I noticed that iamausername addressed Tenchi still so make sure everyone clears this up.

[DTMaster]

@ Gwyn

I wasn't aware that scum was a catch all word to include all anti-town factions.

[DTMaster]

Ah it lists it there too. I usually associate it with the shorten form of mafiascum (or for mafia). I retract my question then unless someone has an alternative view point to this.

[DTMaster]

I have work again so I'll post half an answer. I'll finish refining my a answer when I get home but for now:

@Nikanor

b) Based on what the wiki and what everyone in this thread as said I can only summarize that a hider is:

1. Like a confirmed sane-cop. A hider is pro-town and can target (to hide) someone at night and confirm a person's alignment.
2. When he hides someone that is pro-town, his action resolves and gains NK immunity if he is targeted (see the wiki but I am unsure about this power). This is how a hider can confirm a person's township.
3. If a hider chooses to hide mafia, then he dies from his result. I am unsure about SK/Werewolf though because they are neutral, and not aligned with the mafia.
4. A weakness with the hider is that when his target dies (and it is a pro town role) then he dies with his target (think lovers but one sided).

Therefore the tracker/watcher plan that Lowell stated would have another person to confirm the target's alignment (so they are Lowell's insurance), especially in the case of number 3. Lowell in game can confirm a townie's alignment with a list (similar to an investigation list).

[DTMaster]

@Tenchi
I'm your replacement. :3 Good luck with your new job.

@Nikanor
In any circumstance I try to not lynch either person. But given the fact that our power roles played extremely scummy I would risk lynching the hider.

Since we forced 4 claims on day 1 by lynching the hider:

1. The nightkill will confirm the doctor's alignment. No scum player would let the doctor live and gamble on a failed nk. If ThAdmiral/FC survives then he would be extremely scummy and debate would follow.

2. If the hider was scum he would fake confirm his scum buddies as town. Since a hider gets NK immunity from hiding a pro-town person, we cannot confirm him from the NK. This only leaves a cop/watcher/tracker to confirm the hider's alignment, or from a lynch.

Since Lowell played very scummy it is logical that the lynch went to him due to this reasoning.

Upon review on the hider role I just realized my post 733 might have turned out differently. Had we lynched ThAdmiral the hider would have gotten nk immunity (can someone confirm this ability?) and might have produced a failed nk, saving a PR. But this is looking back in hindsight when we now have a confirmation of the alignments. Based on what information we had at the time it did not excuse the player's actions.

Nikanor who would you rather lynch? Also I'll post the answer to your first question soon. I'm pulling quotes at the moment for my thoughts.

[DTMaster]

@Nikanor
Your (a) question answered:

Nadroj Bandwagon

The day one nadroj wagon was partially justified. [url="http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 75#1778480]Dank's post 676[/url] outlines a good argument about his poor scum hunting and lack of content. He was lurking very excessively as well. But a minor point come up that make me question Nad/Gwyn's scummness.

1. Nadroj's character 313 summary. He hurts himself with his own analysis which is really odd from a scum POV.

2. Dank stresses active scum hunting, and discredits summary posts right afterward. Sumamry posts

The only issue I have is that is argument is getting rehashed a lot throughout this game. This argument was used against FC in Dank's 279 and again with Gwyn.

Considering how many pages the game gets, a good summary post is helpful to reestablish what has occurred and current town reasoning. This feels like a flimsy argument that dank is pushing on these players. A forced case makes a weak case, creating small mistakes where people are interpreted as scummy.

Thoughts about Gwyn

I view Gwyn as a good replacement so far. I'm starting to get some town vibes from him after his 677, 679, and 681 defense.

Some of Dank's 676 post against Gwyn by himself was a bit flimsy because summary posting from a replacement is a weak argument. Note that post 509 was Gwyn's second post and a summary of the

last 20 pages

before that post helps reevaluate the current cases.

Though he forgot to answer Dank's 682

So you suspected someone more than FC?

Overall most of the suspicion that is on Gwyn was from Nadroj which he cannot answer for entirely, but has taken accountability for it. He has done a good job defending himself.

While I was reading you seem to have a problem with Gwyn's latest case. Can you elaborate on this?

Also to the town: Everyone said we have 3 scum players in town. I just want to clarify if this meant we have a 3 man mafia team in game or a 2 man mafia team and a SK/Werewolf.

[DTMaster]

@Gwyn

Since you are pursuing a case on qwints:

1. Can I safely assume you think Kiku is less scummy then qwints at this point and time?
a. If yes can you elaborate your current stance between Kiku and qwints' debate. (ie Why Kiku's AtE argument proves she is town and not scum)
b. If not then why are you pursuing a qwints case if you think Kiku is more scummy?

[DTMaster]

@Gwyn.

Sorry my (ie statement) should have been read as for example your thoughts on the AtE stance that qwints stated. I did not mean to say you stressed for an AtE argument since that was qwints who brought it up. I just wanted to double check on your stance with kiku and qwints.

Also about the 3 person scum team, I assumed everyone said this or at least

implied

this from the following quotes:

So I'm seeing either a Lowell-FC-dank team or a Lowell-Hero-Mokina team (unlikely imo, claiming mason with a scumbuddy is suicide), just based on Lowell's poor reasoning in his PBPA.

The last two pages have me considering a dank, fc, kiku scum team.

You don't think a doc for 1/3 (i'd guess 3 scum in this game) of the scum team is a good tradeoff? Without a real doc claiming, I can't see any reason to lynch FC today, so we'd essentially be letting scum roam free, where we could lynch him now.

I was having a hard time understanding what the logic to a 3 man scum team came from since these 3 posts implied it.




While it is obvious that we have at least 2 roles with night killing abilities, I am unsure where the 3-person scum team idea suddenly popped up.

Vote Count Six

qwints: 3 (kikuchiyo, Gwynplaine, iamausername)
kikuchiyo: 2 (qwints, SerialClergyman)
Gwynplaine: 1 (dank)

Not Voting: 2 (DTMaster, Nikanor)

With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Current Deadline: Monday, August 10 4:00 PM EST

[DTMaster]

Er EBWOP: The last two statements are the same. Note to self don't edit when you are half asleep. >>

[DTMaster]

I'm a bit worried about the 3-man scum team then. Depending on the results of the lynch and night kill: if we mislynch, and 2 townies die at night then scum auto wins from day 3. (Since they will have the majority of votes out of a group of 5)

[DTMaster]

@Dank
Don't you mean 1 werewolf?

@ SC
The thing is though, your argument is a rehash of qwints post. Iam's 720 post isolates a good question in your debate

Kiku's attitude towards the FC lynch was bizarre and is scummy.

And again. Could you possibly make a case that does not consist entirely of "kiku's behaviour is bizarre and scummy"? Like maybe explain why her behaviour is scummy?

Also had you looked at the following pages:

Page 26:
1. Kiku follows on qwint's lead and votes for Tenchi due to his lurking on post 636. This can be seen as a pressure vote to get Tenchi is post more.

2. Kiku argues in 642 that she interpreted Tenchi's actions as a soft claim for a doctor. Since FC/Admiral flipped doc, she questions his actions.

Proof to scumhunting on Tenchi.

Page 27:
Bandwagon city happens on kiku. She starts her AtE argument here

Page 28:
1. She slightly prods Nikanor on 675, on how he bothers her with his lover's comments. (I'm also a bit confused here. Can you elaborate on this Kiku?) This is some cautious scum hunting right here.

Page 29:
1. Then Kiku forms a minor case on Iam and votes on 721. She retracts her case later on page 30. This is consistent with her day 1 play but less aggressive. The fact that she changed her mind after 45 minutes and admits it was an error in judgment shows that she is still following her day 1 play.

2. On page 30 she suggests that I might have found a potential scum link.

From what I see, she is still doing her day 1 play, abet less aggressively. (Anything after her day 1 play will look less aggressive in comparison) It make logical sense to calm down after the massive disaster we suffered at day 1. So the AtE argument when looking at Kiku's play makes some sense from a Townie's POV. But this would be based on gut, rather then hard evidence.

[DTMaster]

Also

FoS: SerialClergyman

I dislike your recent posts. Your Iso post 41 with your recent post reeks of both distancing and jumping on the easy bandwagon.

[DTMaster]

@SC

<insert various quotes that support a case against kiku>

"is dutifully served his humble pie"

It is true that my last few statements were based on the more recent posts. You pushed the waters on qwints with 707 and jumped to kiku in 762. I saw the distancing and easy bandwagon vote from isolating these couple posts, while qwints was pushing a case on kiku, But as you stated, you developed a strong case beforehand which makes little sense for this.

That was at the top of page 28. Since then, iamusername unvoted, everyone else moved on and she has NEVER DELIVERED. Her posts up until that point were more common, longer and more forceful. She's gone quiet since the suspicion shifted from her, and it shifted on a promise that she never delivered.

I had missed this point and I am interested in this iso analysis too. Though, I don't agree that Kiku has gone exactly quiet. Even if her play is that less aggressive, you cannot deny that she is still shaking the tank up with her accusations and questions. The level of aggression is different, but her effect on the discussion hasn't gone away.

A quiet person would fit Tenchi's gameplay, rather then Kiku's active single paragraph posting.

So thanks for your defence of her play today but it completely misses the point, and even if it was on point I hardly consider it impressive. Your main argument is that somewhere in there is some soft scumhunting, which is a) pretty weak as is, b) highly suspicious given her actions previous to her AtE. It seems that you need pressure to make kiku do anything, and that's worrying.

The soft scumhunting list was trying to illustrate that Kiku's style is still consistent from day 1 to day 2. Part of the argument against Kiku is how inconsistent her style of posts are pre and post-AtE. I still see the same pattern post-AtE in her game play which makes me question the whole "quiet" argument.

Also can you expand on the last point with some examples?

Jumping on the easy bandwagon? Which bandwagon do you think is the easy one at the moment?

I also agree that qwints is the current easy bandwagon. But considering the events of the game I also consider kiku as an easy bandwagon. First off there is strong emotion with kiku after outing our 4 PRs. Combine that with the ton of cases that was put against her on day 1, voting pattern, and odd defense on day 2, you get an easy case to present.

The your 759 and qwints iso 65, 69 are repetitive and seem to drown itself from the AtE angle. Sorry but I think the point is clear that Kiku's admission is already scummy.

@qwints

Ok. I just wanted to clear up why there was an assumption there was a 3-man scum team. Also can you elaborate on why option 2 was not available to Kiku?

[DTMaster]

@Qwints

Your argument is stretching it because if you look at her 721 post where Kiku voted, said the following line:

Decided to just reread the thread and I must say that by page 7 I am just about convinced we are looking at Wiirdo/Iamusername/Qwints. It would be difficult to put any type of case together, but both Iam and Wiirdo lack any significant activity(in fact, Iam carries suspicions over an unanswered rvs question all the way to page 6), and Qwints seems to camp his vote on Hero for quite some time riding the original "defense" argument I started.

Suspicions may change as I continue

, but I will keep you updated. In the meantime:

unvote, Vote: Iamusername

I could understand your argument if kiku developed a lengthy case against iam, engage in a good debate, then reversed her position on a dime. The fact is from her following posts she began a case, but upon analysis of Iam's character she saw more townie attributes then scum. Therefore she dropped it.

Your last point is pushing the reasoning a bit too much which makes you
a. A townie flailing at his tunnel posts or
b. Scum flailing at his "easy case" posting

I see more of b in your posts then anything.

Vote Qwints

@Kiku
While you are responsible for the outing of the 4 PRs it does not excuse the fact you should easily give up. That is just plain anti-town for any faction. I'll look forward to your general read of day 2 instead since it will be just as enlightening as your iso read.

Mod: Can you do a vote count as well for this page?

[DTMaster]

Wait what? You targeted the doctor, a "claimed doctor"?

Only scum would do that, risking an easy case to get rid of the night protection. A pro-town vig would target someone else because the results of the nightkill will tell us how scummy Admiral really is. Admiral also has a pending defense post due to replacing in.

[DTMaster]

@Kiku

Depends though, if there is a 3 man scum team with a werewolf then scum has a strong influence if lovers get caught early.

There is also a possibility that Admiral's night actions resolved if scum targeted someone else. The reasoning why scum would target someone else is weak though.

[DTMaster]

Actually in review of of what Gwyn posted about the potential setup, could there be a mafia team that might not have the NK ability. 3 killing roles with the existence of the lovers seems abet stacked against town under the wrong conditions.

[DTMaster]

Acutally I forgot Nikanor is V/LA till the end of today. I'm going to unvote for his thoughts before we go on with an early hammer.

Unvote

Pending questions/thoughts are bad for the town.

[DTMaster]

I would rather wait until everyone can weigh in on the hammer because we aren't on deadline day. It

feels wrong to lynch someone 5 days in advance of the deadline

when someone is V/LA and just got back today.

[DTMaster]

er EBWOP:

It feels wrong to lynch someone 5 days in advance of the deadline when someone is V/LA and just got back today.

[DTMaster]

@Kiku/SC
I personally would rather have full town activity since there is 5 days left and I got the feeling that a lynch would come soon since Danks offered to be the hammer. If you two want some action done now you can both vote/hammer and get this done and over with. "points at kiku"

Seriously, DT, why the unvote?

This guy is guilty as hell.

Here are a summary of pending questions/thoughts/discussion/issues I liked answered before we decide on the hammer:

1. Nik asked me 3 questions on 740 and 743 which I answered. Since he went on V/LA. I have not received his responses to my answers.

2. Kiku asked SC in her 763.

Are you really calling it scummy for a player to promise iso analysis and then change their mind due to rl time constraints to do a general reread instead? Exactly how have I "gone quiet"?

3. In my 769 I asked qwints on his response to Iam's post

Also can you elaborate on why option 2 was not available to Kiku?

The whole chain of discussion relevant to this though are:

I'm shocked,

shocked

that Kiku has reversed her position on Iam to increase the chance of saving her own skin. Doing it 45 minutes after proclaiming confidence in your position is just icing on the cake.

How exactly is that saving her own skin more than either a) continuing to claim that I am probable scum, or b) never claiming that I am probable scum in the first place?

Option 2 is not available to her. As for option 1, it was worth seeming scummily inconsistent in order to turn the wagon on me into the leading one.

Iam's pressured him more in 770 to answer the question, but qwints talked around it in 771.

4. Kiku you call on qwints to form a case on you by pointing out flaws within your posts in 772.

5. Lots of people are waiting on your reread since I requested it in 773 and you offered to SC in your iso 97.

6. Danks in his 783 asked

You made several posts at the end of D1 about how we can disprove FC if the real doc comes out today, or whenever we reach lylo, yet you just went ahead and killed him to be sure? I can't imagine why any vig would do that; why go for someone who has a chance of being our real doc, a chance you yourself admitted?

[DTMaster]

Just add that Dank's 791 was the origin for the unvote to my original post, just wanted to be specific.

[DTMaster]

@ Kiku
About your 800. While it is true that town will gain a good advantage from the crossfire, in the endgame an SK wants to win by being the sole survivor. Especially if the SK is unkillable at night then at some point we will need to vote qwints before he racks up too many town kills ,ending the game prematurely.

Your 803 works in theory but I cannot see how an unk SK will claim like that. Can you link to an example that you elaborated on in 808?

Also we had not ruled out that two factions targeted the same person at night/doc protect. But we cannot confirm this until the night phase is over. Big dilemma.

@SC
I failed to notice your vote, that was an reading error here.

@Town
I'm wavering on the hammer. In review though of the pending questions, I noticed a lot are addressed to qwints. Would it still be beneficial if he could effectively answer them?

[DTMaster]

Um danks voted for qwints so I guess its a lynch no?

[DTMaster]

err EBWOP:

Mod: can you double check the vote count since danks voted qwints. Unless he did an error in voting

Since the day is pretty much done and if danks accidentally made a voting error I'll hammer qwints.

Vote:Qwints

[DTMaster]

@Nik: You mean the misvote on gwyn, not iam.
@Dank I swore I saw more you! /sarcasm

[DTMaster]

@Nik and Mod. 2 vote errors? o-o

[DTMaster]

@Town

I messed up with the hammer since I read the vote count before Drake got the corrections (dank voted for gwyn and iam still voted for qwints in the mod error)

I forgot that Iam unvoted, and thought Danks hammered. I reasoned that since Danks hammered the day was already done and the mod would correct the mistake and we would end up with a lynch regardless. Read my mod miscount talk with Nikanor for that.

I'll post more on my current thoughts in a summary post. Let me get my notes together and such.

[DTMaster]

@Dank's issue

I'm in another game with him (which is ongoing so I cannot discuss in depth) but he issued a V/LA request till the 23rd.

Link to the meta call.

If he hasn't already told you

Mod: Replacement needed?

[DTMaster]

If we could get a replacement 34 pages is tough to digest for one person and to catch up. (But I guess it could be worse)

Since we are waiting for that issue. SC thoughts on my response for the hammer. I'm your second favorite lynch so I would like to hear your case on it. Also since I'm Tenchi's replacement you can use his posts in your case, I'll do my best to answer for that.

You also said you had a problem with my questioning, can you elaborate how my questioning is poorly affecting general scum hunting.

[DTMaster]

Sorry townies, I didn't finish that post I promised since I had RL plans that took me away from the game. I'll answer the current questions at the moment in the meantime:

@iam.

No lynch: It might lead to a town loss depending on how many werewolves there are. I remember we were debating on 3 or 2 on a team, and it would mean that we would defiantly lose if there were at least 3 wolves.

On the flip side since we are in lylo it might be a good idea to narrow down numbers in general (if we can prove there are 2 wolves or less).

I personally would consider no lynch on a gamble just due to probability advantage.

Mass Claim: With all the dead power roles it would be good idea to claim, especially if we do have a seer/cop with some guilty results (or confirmed townies if they are alive still) The issue comes when someone counter claims (and if it's scum or if scum fake claims and the real seer c-claims). Again this is a risky gambit for lylo.

We also might run into all V-Townies since so many power roles died.

@SC
I can use my imagination, but it isn't the same thing as what you say. There is a difference and makes little sense for me to make my own case against me. Also if I just assume what arguments are going to be made (which is good for developing counter points) I would be putting words into your mouth which you didn't say. So when you do have the time I really want a full case done on me.

Also answers:

1. Very dumb reading mistakes, but I'll just be repeating my own arguments again. It's my style to use up as much of the days as possible.

2. Or really bad short term memory. But that leads into questioning the real life person, and you can't do a meta call on a person's habits/thought processes. Trust me I'm still digesting the day 1 stuff after re-skimming it over.

@Gwyn
I agree after some thought. 34 pages might be too much for someone to catch up to, but Danks can catch up with I predict around 5 pages. It'll be more manageable definitely. The problem comes with activity and the cases against Dank (which are really popular).

After my summary post I feel I'll get a better grasp of the players at hand.

BTW: I noticed no one analyzed the nightkill. Thoughts on why scum chose Nikanor? I'm going to put my own thoughts for Nik's death in my summary post.

[DTMaster]

EBWOP:

1. Very dumb reading mistakes, but I'll just be repeating my own arguments again. It's my style to use up as much of the days as possible. I've put a foot in mouth situation upon myself right now with my recent day 2 actions, which actually have no excuse really since it is blatant contradictory.

[DTMaster]

For now I'm against it unless the (or potential/imaginary) seer/cop has a good list of people to confirm/kill.

(Status of Summary Post: In my Gmail in the works. Posting in a couple of games before I focus on it)

[DTMaster]

@iam

Actually I played out the 3 scum team in my head and saw how they would auto win. So I can see this.

You convinced me actually to support you. I forgot to consider that we would have 0 net loss in the whole V-Town scenario. "adds his name to the cause" (Though Dank cannot participate until the 23rd which might affect things.)

[DTMaster]

@SC

I don't know why you asked me that, but the scum win condition is always to kill every other faction. (This can be town, other scum, etc) I understand the basic mechanics of the game thank you very much.

@Town
While it would be nice to get the activity, it makes it very difficult to get a read on Nikanor if he replaces dank. (especially if he crosses factions since he is considered confirmed town) I agree with Gwyn though that we should wait since Kiku is V/LA and dank is returning. But I'm willing to go the other way if the town generally wants Nik back.

(Status of Summary: Sorry but one of my other games got hyper active and I neglected to develop my post. Check my meta on this if you want to make sure)

[DTMaster]

Since the town is really dead and no one answered my question to analyze the NK. I'll post the first part of my thoughts. I'll do more iso reading before I post my general feeling of the players. Its better then just waiting for the V/LAs to end and to start the mass claims.

NK on Nik/Wiirdo

1. Very protown player, and strong for the town cause. His death will contribute to a loss of a perceptive player.

2. I can put a WIFOM debate here but Nik's death sets a trap against me (which I pretty much let scum do for my vote. ><). You can WIFOM that if I hadn't killed Nik his question would threaten my scum position. You can also WIFOM that if I killed Nik, I would get rid of an obvious threat. My counter to this is a framed defense and more WIFOM. Over all this is weak and against me in all fronts.

3. If Nik represented a threat to any player, this is the best time to set up what I pointed in number 2 and get rid of a threat. (Sorry but I guess this is WIFOM) This would implicate Gwyn heavily (see Nik's iso throughout) and iam (only very slightly. not enough to just base a case on.) in Nik's iso 16.

4.I think Wiirdo was mainly forgotten from Nik's play. The only pattern that came from the two was a suspicion on Nadroj and Lowell. While Nik did replace Wiirdo, two people with similar suspicions have pointed out enough times to raise some red flags.

[DTMaster]

Well the thing is if scum reaches 50% of town population (assuming the other 50% is just townies) then a majority vote cannot be done on the scum factions. Therefore technically it will force into a no lynch and then the scum would just NK one by one... and well the rest happens.

Now in a multi scum game faction there are a risk of cross kills at night so 1 bad move in a 50% scenario can save town.

I can only link to a meta call if you want, but cannot answer your question about my history because all my games are ongoing (even my first game). I would be mod killed/ banned for breaking rules.

[DTMaster]

Also to add. Waiting is best. But discussion should still happen while we wait. It feels like a waste to just wait for a claim and then act.

[DTMaster]

Last thing to add. I would be breaking this rule:

11. Do not discuss this game outside the thread at any time, except if and when your role specifically allows you to do so.

If I answered your question as of right now SC. This rule is common in all games.

[DTMaster]

@SC

I'm making a list/reasons atm once I reread a few key parts of this thread.

Also I'm going to ask the mod right now before I answer recent question.

Mod: Am I allowed to quote my win conditions in role PMs of my current ongoing games from my other games?

If you want a sample scum PM then look at any newbie game. Here is mine. Note the "only your side remains" is vauge enough to include the other factions other
then town.

Also I dislike your recent line of questioning. No matter what faction I am I cannot quote my PM, town, scum, village idiot, etc. You are really doing a good job at trying to get me mod killed aren't you? If you are using this to make me look scummy, try again from

my actual posts

next time. Your arguments hold no water unless you can support it from my posts or Tenchi's posts.

[DTMaster]

I also want to add. Answering that question looks more like answering a game mechanic question (aka a null-tell) so don't use it as an argument for me or against me.

[DTMaster]

EBWOP: Er I should specify, the question in my 869 is referring to SC's question about Mafia win condition.

[DTMaster]

@SC
After some reviewing though, I can't really quote a scum PM even if I wanted to. So the best I can do is that newb game link. It's my interpretation of what a scum PM would read as, take it as you will.

But I cannot answer the fact whether I had scum history in my other games simply since they are all ongoing. I rather not have someone meta from my other game and read my alignment from this game. I find it unsportsmanlike (and I recently read a game where a person revealed their alignment in a mafia discussion thread and the town could have won if they meta called it. I'll look for a link on this but it was one of Vi's modded games)

It's nice that you were trying to clear me, but I'd prefer if I did it myself. The whole buddying argument can me done against you right now.

Also for my top 3 list, I'm finding it difficult to pin something inherently scummy on anyone. I would actually go

self vote

because from a general town perspective, I'm pretty obv scum. I'm going to need to reread outside of ISO right now to see if I can catch something subtle. The only obvious argument I can use is on dank.

You can use kiku's argument that scum spearhead on him but at the same time Nik is a confirmed townie and he brings a valid point to kill the SK. We would have lost if the SK killed a townie instead of scum.

@Gwyn
I donno. I was reading up Tar's Haruhi game where they analyzed the night kill (or lack there of) which lead to a town victory. Anything that can be gotten from the NK should be looked at.

@Your Defence
It's very sound actually. In fact qwint's death clears up a few parts of Nik's problems.

1. It wasn't a distancing post that you did against qwints for very obvious reasons. (But if Nik is right, and as you point out you would need to look at a dank - Gwyn connection right now.)

2. Wiirdo was very lurkerish, but if two people's scum radar goes off on the same person/replacee then there is some merit to investigate further.

3. I did state earlier that you were doing a much better job of Nadroj in my ISO 11. Your defense works and I support my Iso post still.

[DTMaster]

EBWOP: I should say buddying then some inherent bussing (but that might be WIFOM to say it)

[DTMaster]

@Iam and Mod

I won't but I felt that the only real way to answer SC's 867 would force me to break this rule (other then WIFOM). I won't quote my PMs since I understand the rules.


@Iam
I would have if we weren't in lylo and 2 scum are running around. I might have did a foot in mouth situation against myself, but I still want to win.

If you can, redo that case with the quotes

[DTMaster]

Ouchies. Do you have a Gmail account? I save my long posts in a compose e-mail on Gmail since it:

1. Auto save
2. The tags save in Gmail and work properly.
3. Its amazing :3

[DTMaster]

Sorry guys, I put this game on the back burner and currently compling a post in my g-mail. I'm quite interested to see dank's response. Since I didn't want to be totally useless I'll post what I have for now and continue on with it when I get more time.

Part 1:

@iam
I like your case and it was a good read. Here are some general comments.

1. I think you skipped my weird actions at the end, yes I did find qwints' scummy and put him at L-1 then, unvoted and then hammered. It's biased in supporting me (which thanks :3) but it should still be there for a more rounded consideration.

2. 261 dank's supports the mason claim, which is odd since he is sniping at the two of them. It looks really scummy since it's really self contradictory that he doesn't drop the issue.

3. Danks 537: He comments that we might be rushing with the Nadroj/Gwyn wagon to force a mislynch but when I read the vote countbefore and after I see few things:

a. The wagon is losing ground which makes danks look sensitive about the issue. I see though that Gwyn/Nad did have the closest wagon going in the before link, before Lowell's case got the spotlight.

b. If a quick lynch happened it would be much more revealing of the scum players. Township would make sure the lynch doesn't go through without the full discussion unless the person was that obviously scum.

----

Sorry didn't get far since the game was in delay for so long I forgot to check (focused on my other games :<)

Now with the more recent postings I go:

1. WTF Kiku? What are your thoughts on Iam's post. This is so OOC of you to suddenly vote SC it makes no sense. Outline your case please.

2. SC you make a good point about the mass claim, would you be more comfortable if dank and Gwyn claimed first though? At the moment they are the most suspicious people and if they claimed last they wouldn't be able to put forward a false claim to a town PR. (of course if the town PR lied with a VT claim... then ... well let's not go down this thought route).

[DTMaster]

EBWOP: I should say its suddenly vote for SC based on the context of the current discussion.

[DTMaster]

No probs, which is why there is town discussion on these things. :3

[DTMaster]

@SC

It was the 23rd. Give him a couple of days from today to recover and such.

Also if the Cop/Tracker/etc... has a list of innocents it might help narrow down our search. Unless the targets all died though, then it'll be silly. But I see your point, outing the last resort PR would be bad if it didn't catch the scumbuddies.

(As a side note: Would that make town overpowered to have an additional investigation role when we had lovers, a hider and a doc confirmed already?)

[DTMaster]

I'm at work and my break is running out so quick thoughts only:

@SC

(This is useless setup sepeculation but considering what we had before day 1 blew it up, we had a strong team of hider and doc, and confirmed lovers... if they were used properly)

You wagon analysis would points to the danks/gwyn team.

@Gywn

Wait you were surprised Qwints flipped SK? Even with the vig claim that qwints did and he admitted to targeting the doc, and the fact that we speculated about werewolves being part of the setup, you still suspected the Kiku/Qwints team? (Though I'm surprised the wolves went after the mason/lover pair)

[DTMaster]

I had planned to do an analysis but this game is so far back in my back burner list that it makes me kinda sad and I forgot about this game. By now I view this as two possibilities.

a. We are hitting scum since there was no quick lynch after Kiku's L-2 vote.
b. It is a Kiku/SC scum team.

I'm willing to gamble on a right now based on Iam's case and the logistics of finding a replacement since Dank has been absent for a long time. I'm only slightly worried though due to bias from that case.

Vote: Dank

[DTMaster]

A hammering song?

[DTMaster]

I was so sure dank was scum :<.

Good job SC and Gwyn team. In hindsight the game was really thrown your way for the longest time. I'm interested in your quick topic.

[DTMaster]

Day one brutalized us :<. SC played a very strong individual game here with the really good distancing in his recent posts. I doubt we would have resolved to find SC as scum and gone for a Gwyn/Dank back to back lynch in any order.

Plus it didn't help that Dank being V/LA was still gone after he got back.