Open 148: Jungle Republic (Game over) before 800

[Hero764]

Hey I'm Caboose's replacement.

Reading the thread right now.

[Hero764]

Alrighty...finally finished.

First off, F**K LONG POSTS. I used to think Mastin's playstyle was pretty interesting, but now its just f*****g annoying. All it shows is your f*****g inability to get a point across in a clear manner. REPEATING THE SAME F*****G THING TO DIFFERENT SNIPPETS OF THE SAME SENTENCE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN YOUR ARGUMENT.

Ok.

Second off, the lack of activity in this game is disappointing. Just saying.

Thirdly, about the no kill last night. Caboose(me) still would have a partner who could send the night kill in, and if he was online to set up his game surely he could send in a simple night kill. Tarballs, according to IAAUU, posted 5 hours before, so I don't see why he couldn't send in a night kill at that time. Yos is the only one that fully fits this "theory". He gets even more suspicious w/ this post:

Anyway, Iamusername makes a good argument there. I've seen scum fail to get in nightkills for no good reason before even when they're around, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the two wolves was away last night. I could see lynching either Caboose or Tarballs today.

He completely ignores the fact that his name was also mentioned in Iamausername's post, possible buddying up to avoid further scrutiny from UN(yes I'm going to write your name differently every time )? And the whole 'at least one of two wolves' is completely faulty, since only one were partner would need to be present anyways to send in a night kill.

Fourth, Tarballs. Oh boy. His day 4 posts are incredibly scummy.

I agree that I could've done a lot more on Day 3... and I'll just leave it as that. No excuses.

No excuses? So its ok for people to suspect you, then?

Vote: Yosarian2
I am about 100% certain he's wolf.

Like Scotty has said, the only way you could be 100% certain is if you were his partner =/.

In other news, I could also go with a Caboose lynch, since he's going to be lynched at some point anyway and this game is pretty much lost if he doesn't flip wolf.

Unvote, Vote: Caboose

Why did you move your vote from Yos2 if you were 100% sure he was scum? Because you were afraid of scurtiny? Seems like obvscum to me

Vote: Tarballs

First of all, it's about 100% vote. There is a slight difference. And I'm almost as convinced that Caboose is wolf. I even said that in post 334.

Why put 100%, obviously implying you were completely satisfied with your vote, if that isn't what you meant. Typical scum making an indefinite statement so they can go and do this.

Secondly, people don't seem to want to lynch Yos today, so my vote on him is a waste. So why not change it?

Because you were 100% sure of it?

And the point of mafia is to convince people to vote for your suspect, not to give up and switch to another lynch. That's what scum do.

Next, Yos. Only one post that really jumps out at me:

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the wolves did screw up. I'm not as confident as you that that proves they weren't around; I've seen scum teams just fail to get in kills while they were around, it just happened in the lynch all lurkers game I modded for example and both of the scum posted in the scum quicktopic that night. That being said, it does dramatically increase the odds of Caboose being scum, and I'm perfectly willing to vote there today.

Which is it? Inactivity or just failed to get a kill in? If it's inactivity and the odds of me being scum,

you are the only the logical scum partner for me

.

And lastly, I just want to address Wulfy. Out of the entire thread, only Mastin seemed to seriously suspect him, and it seems as everyone's been taking him for granted and such.

He seems to think both me AND Tarballs can be scum together due to no kill, but that doesn't work, because Tarballs was active 5 hours beforehand, and could have easily sent in a night kill. Also, on page 14(not going to bother quoting, just look for yourself if you don't remember) Wulfy pointed out that the fact that there wasn't a quicklynch meant one of us was scum. IAAU responds to this under the assumption that Wulfy was simply mistaken, and wasn't even considering the possibility that Wulfy had intentionally used faulty logic to incriminate us. Possible connection I think.

[Hero764]

How is it suspicious that I didn't suggest lynching myself? That's absurd. After all, I know I'm town. It dosn't mean the theory is invalid, only that from my point of view, I know it dosn't apply to me.

Misrep much? When in that entire post did I suggest you lynching yourself? My point is that you completely neglected defending yourself, and instead attempted to get IAAU to forget about you and focus only on Tarballs and I.

Well, obviously, I don't know; the only people who actualy know if they just failed to get a kill in or if they were inactive, or some combination of the two, are the wolves themselves. It does increase your odds of being scum, though.

If it increases my chance it increases your as well, and I'm pretty sure you aren't saying that you are scum. Your logic is faulty.

[Hero764]

Eh? IAAU made an argument that makes both me, Tarballs, and you look bad. I actually agreed that the argument was logical, as I made clear, although I obviously know it dosn't apply to me. What more do you expect me to say about it?

Maybe show how IAAU's statements didn't really work? I dunno, I'm not here to defend you.

I actually did defend myself later, if you notice, in post 355. Nonetheless, Iam made an arguemnt in the form of "people who do X are more likely to be scum", and I agree with the arguemnt, even though I did X and I am town.

Saying something that you can't prove isn't really defending yourself.

And by agreeing with his argument you were saying that while you shouldn't be suspected for those reasons, Tarballs and Caboose could. It doesn't make any sense.

No, my logic is not. Of course it increses my chances of being scum; it certanly dosn't increase them to 100%, and I am, in fact, town, but that dosn't actually invalidate the argument.

Again, if inactivity is the case for the no kill, and I'm being suspected because Caboose wasn't apparently a part of the game at that time(even though IAAU pointed out that he was active on the site during that time), then you, being the only logical partner for me in this case, should suspect yourself.

If "People who do X are more likely to be scum then people who do not do X", that argument may very well be correct even though I did X and am town. You're trying to find a contradiction where none exists.

What?

I also find it interesting you're defending Tarballs here and attacking me. Your defense of Tarballs seems to be "He could have gotten the night choice in; after all, he was around 5 hours before night started." Well, sure, since the mod apparenlty accepts night choices sent in before night starts if you know you'll be away, he could have, if he knew he was going to be gone for the entire night. I did know I was going to be away for a week, so therefore I also could have sent it in beforehand; in fact, I would have had far more reason to do so then either you or tarballs. So why are you attacking me for this and defending him? Is it just because I'm voting you?

1) Tarballs posted on this site during the night(5 hours before daybreak), that's why if he's my scum partner he could've easily sent in a night kill.
2) I'm attacking you for suspecting me when the exact same logic makes you my scum partner. For using illogical reasoning to vote for me. I would be doing the same thing if you had attacked anyone else. So no, its not because you are voting for me.

[Hero764]

Sure, I can prove it. If you don't believe me, ask the mod the same hypothetical question yourself. And I can also certanly prove that I knew I was going to be away for the entire time; there's a whole thread on GD about it, in fact. What part of it, exactally, are you saying I can't prove?

You don't know what I'm talking about? You're the one who pointed it out for me:

For the record, I was also on briefly a few times during the bash, on Ether's laptop which she brought, and I would have been able to send in a nightkill if I had been scum. I didn't post anything while I got on, though, so I can't prove tat either.

Again, I never said that. I did, and do, expect to be suspected because I wasn't around. People who suspect me for that reason would be wrong, but that dosn't mean the logic isn't sound.

Aight.

...

I should suspect myself?

Don't you just love misreps? Read closely: You would be forced to suspect yourself ONLY if you continue using this logic.

Confirm vote:Hero

I'm hardly the "only logical partner". Neither Caboose (the person you replaced) nor Tar posted anywhere on the site during the entire night, and, as I've pointed out multiple times,

if one person out of a 2 member scum team isn't online, then it will increase the odds of them failing to get a kill in.

Ok:
1) Caboose is me, he can't be my partner.
2) Tarballs did post, 5 hours before daybreak.
3) You didn't post, so yes you would be the only logical partner.
4) Bolded makes absolutely no sense. Only one werewolf needs to be present in order to send in the night kill. Please show how one being absent decreases the likelihood of a night kill being sent in. If anything it would INCREASE the chance since there wouldn't be a second person for the first one to argue with.

Using more faulty logic to try and get me lynched. Scummy.

Why are you completly ignoring what I say, Hero, and just responding with non-sequetors like "You are my only logical partner" and "You should suspect yourself"?

I'm not. You're the one who seems to be ignoring that Tarballs was present during the night phase. Do you even know what this argument is about?

Theory: People who are not around at night when a kill is missed are more likely to be scum.

Fact (from my point of view, at least): I was not around at night, and I am town.

If you think about it, that fact DOES NOT DISPROVE that theory, because that theory just said that people who were not around ARE MORE LIKELY to be scum, not that they ALL MUST BE scum. Do you really not understand the distinction here?

I understand what you are saying, but only you and me were absent during the night phase, so based on this logic that inactivity caused the werewolves to have no kill automatically makes you scum with me. The fact that you would agree with that logic anyways is why I attacked you.

So, you're annoyed that he forgot to send it in, apparently?

Way to avoid responding.

No, it does not. How many times do I have to explain this here?

Yes it does. How many times do I have to explain this here?

[Hero764]

Wulfy: Do you have any other reasons for suspecting me other than the no kill?

[Hero764]

Ah. I was actually talking about post 355, not 335. I wouldn't really consider that a defense.

I gotcha. Doesn't that logic apply to Caboose(me) as well?

Only if I was trying to argue that both partners must have been away all night, WHICH I NEVER DID. Stop trying to put other people's words into my mouth.

I wasn't. I using the only logical expansion of your argument.

Ok, let me explain this, because again, I've seen this happen. Let's say that Caboose sent in the nightkill night 1 and night 2. Let's also say, just for the sake of argument, that he and his partner didn't talk much. If his partner wasn't aware Caboose was gone night 3, then there's a pretty high chance that the nightkill might just not get sent in.

You think that's a likely scenario? I doubt that would happen very often, and should hardly be used as justification for a vote, especially on day 4 when we are potentially one lynch away from lylo.

IAAU: Crap, for some reason I thought it was 5 to lynch. Anyways, I doubt the mod should mind us talking since he didn't "officially" declare the end of the day.

[Hero764]

I think Yos2 is our best choice. I'm going to do a reread of his posts in iso, but I really don't like the logic he was using against Caboose yesterday, for reasons explained.

[Hero764]

I'm still happy lynching Hero. The whole way he's attacking me

simply because I attacked him yesterday

just makes him look worse.

Wrong. I obviously attacked you because you used horrible logic, yet you think its ok to just dismiss it as OMGUS. You shouldn't be using false accusations like this, especially in MYLO. Seems like you're overeager to get me lynched and win the game for the werewolf team

[Hero764]

There was noting horrible about my logic, hero. I explained it to you like 6 times yesterday. There's no way you still don't understand what I am saying. Therefore, I do think your attack on me is OMGUS, because I don't get how you could have a problem with my posts yesterday otherwise.

Your logic:

If only one partner is absent during the night it still makes sense to call that the reason for the no kill. All you did was give me one scenario which is highly unlikely considering most the time both partners will talk to eachother. To use this as the entire basis for your suspicion against me is incredibly dumb.

Here's the scenario you gave for reference:

Ok, let me explain this, because again, I've seen this happen. Let's say that Caboose sent in the nightkill night 1 and night 2. Let's also say, just for the sake of argument, that he and his partner didn't talk much. If his partner wasn't aware Caboose was gone night 3, then there's a pretty high chance that the nightkill might just not get sent in.

Tell me Yos, how often do you think something like this could happen? Just because you've "seen it happen" doesn't mean that it's valid reasoning to use against someone. Maybe on day 2, but in MYLO?

[Hero764]

My opinion.

Hero, who is Yos's partner?
Yos, who is Hero's partner?

I'm not sure yet. I'll get back to you after the reread.

[Hero764]

It happens pretty often, actually. In any case, if the scum failed to get the kill in, I would expect both members of the scum team to not be paying much attention to the game; not to be completly inactive, perhaps, but people who are only semi-active. No matter how you look at it, it can only make Caboose look worse.

...it only takes like a minute of paying attention to the game to send a kill in. If you claim you are town and I'm scum, then my scum partner was certainly active that night, and I find it highly unlikely that they wouldn't find the time to send in a kill. The only way this logic works is if you are my partner, which obviously doesn't work for you.

Anyway, that certanly isn't my only reason for suspecting you. My biggest problem with Caboose's play is simply that I had absolutly no reason to think he was pro-town, I had no read on him at all, which usually means that someone is scum. And your play since you replaced in has mostly just been to flail and attack me for attacking you.

And I suppose you have reads on everyone else? What do you base this reads on? Why does having no read on me 'usually' mean I'm scum?

And again, I attacked you for using flawed logic, even if you think I'm wrong, you can't just dismiss it as OMGUS. Doing so is incredibly scummy. Also, to be fair, I've not even been in this game for a full 24 hours of the day phases.

[Hero764]

Why did you ignore this:

And I suppose you have reads on everyone else? What do you base this reads on? Why does having no read on me 'usually' mean I'm scum?

Yes. And the scum didn't do that, apparently. So, what does that tell you?

How do you know what scum did? Is it because you're scum? There's a number of reasons for them not sending in a nightkill, and you're just assuming that your theory(that inactivity caused it) is correct, and I'm telling you that it is highly unlikely. Why are you dragging this out?

Except obviously he wasn't.

Look, the most likely scenerio here is that both members of hte scum team were careless, not paying attention, and perhaps didn't care much about the game. This is especally true since even if they wouldn't be around they could still have sent a kill in beforehand. They may have just screwed up for some other reason, but even then, that's more likely to happen if they're not paying attention to the game. And all of that makes Caboose look worse.

What the hell makes that the most likely scenario? I certainly don't think it is. Sending in a night action is probably the easiest part of the game.

[Hero764]

Hey, Yos, why are you continually ignoring this?

And I suppose you have reads on everyone else? What do you base this reads on? Why does having no read on me 'usually' mean I'm scum?

It certainly isn't helping your case to ignore it.

Like what?

Like if they wanted to throw off the town.
Like if they couldn't come to an agreement and the time ran out.
Like if they thought killing someone that night would throw suspicion onto them.

There's probably other reasons we can think of too. Fact of the matter is: You can't assume why the scum didn't send in a night kill, and then call it obvious unless you are scum yourself.

Eh? That dosn't make any sense. How is it "highly unlikely"? It happens all the time that scum just fail to get a kill in because they're not paying attention or not around or not thinking or there's a miscommunication or something. I can think of any number of games where it's happened.[/quote
1) I've never seen it happen.
2) There are other explanations as well.
3) You can't just assume that's the only possible explanation.

Well, then, what do you think happened?

I don't know. I think you do know Yos.

Yes, sending in a nightkill is easy, but it's also a pretty easy thing to forget to do, especally if your scumbuddy has vanished.

I dunno, if I were scum it would be in the back of mind for all 72 hours.

Also, OGML is probably Yos's partner. He's been active lurking since June 12. He's also said twice now that he's 100% certain Yos is scum, yet never votes for him. Why? Looks like a (not so)clever distancing tactic to me. Also, how could he be 100% certain of anything unless he himself was scum with Yos? And notice how Yos attacks Wulfy for using 100%, but has ignored both times OGML used it. More evidence to the connection. And finally we have this nice quote from Yos2:

OGML dosn't get killed tonight, even though he's obvtown, for the same reason you've been keeping him alive all game; because you want him to vote for me in endgame.

How is he obvtown? He's been active lurking like fuck.

I'm fairly confident in a OGML/Yos2 scum pair atm.

One more thing to note: This even fits with Yos2's theory about scum not caring enough to send in a night kill. Yos2 was absent, and OGML certainly shows a lack of care for this game. So this could easily be considered a scumslip on Yos's part.

Okay, at this point all I am really feeling from the Yos2 vs Hero is some heavy distancing...

Why can it only be distancing? Why are you unwilling to consider the possibility that we hold different alignments?

Yos2 and Caboose (now Hero) would be forced to slam each other as there is a 100% chance one of them would be scum today.

I gotta agree with Yos on this, where the hell are you getting 100% from? Possible Wulfy-Yos connection? Its more likely than a IAAU-Yos connection at least.

Gonna reread Wulfy in iso.

[Hero764]

How am I ignoring it? I did just explain that I have a pro-town read on OGML and Iamusername, and I've actually been saying that for a long time, if you've been reading my posts.

Anyway, if a person has been playing in such a way as to really do nothing, to not give any read of any type, it usually means they're scum, in my opinion;

after all, that's generally what scum want to do, is to not be noticed.

Funny, isn't that EXACTLY what OGML has been doing? And you didn't explain why you find OGML and IAAUN pro-town.

He then goes on to spin some conspiricy theory about me being scum with OGML, which dosn't really make any sense at all.

And Yos2 completely neglects to explain or give a refutation of any kind.

[Hero764]

I like how you've spent so much time arguing that we can't possibly have any idea why the wolves didn't kill anyone on N3, then you go ahead and use this as a point in your case anyway.

Yos seems to think he has an idea though, and one way in which he would have that is if he was scum himself and knew full well what had happened. The fact that his proposed reason also works extraordinarily well with my proposed scum team is suspect.

[Hero764]

UN - What do you think about a Yos2/OGML scum team?

[Hero764]

What makes you think that?

[Hero764]

This is a bit ridiculous tbh.

What exactly is the case against me? It seems the only reason you guys are voting for me is because Caboose was absent during N3. It's MYLO and that's an incredibly weak reason for town to go on. All Yos2 said was that because OGML and IAAU were obvtown(which he has yet to explain why) I must be scum. You shouldn't be supporting your MLYO lynch with reasoning this poor.

[Hero764]

Meh. I tried. Hope you all lynch a townie tommorow .

GG