Open 148: Jungle Republic (Game over) before 800

[Tarballs]

/confirm

[Tarballs]

Vote: Wulfy

The most obvious werewolf ever.

[Tarballs]

Real townies don't need to prove their alignment by doing silly things like touching their nose. Only weak and desperate scum would do that. Oh, and look at that! There are exactly five people on the "NOT SCUM" bandwagon.

Unvote, Vote: Yosarian2
Pre-Vote for day 2: Sotty7
Pre-Vote for day 3: Caboose
Pre-Vote for day 4: Korejora
Pre-Vote for day 5: iamausername

Gah!

[Tarballs]

Right. My theory was that scum would be all paranoid about responding to something like that, in any way, for fear it would look scummy; I know I would feel wierd about blatently yelling "NOT TOWN!" as scum, whereas as town I might be more likely to just play along and have fun. So once it got going, my plan was to vote the first person who completly ignored the whole thing, on the theory that that was the most likely way for scum to respond to it; I'd expect town would either play along with it, or attack it, but scum would try to ignore it completly. And you were the first to not mention it at all.

(I have no idea if that's anything like a reliable scumtell, but who cares, it's better then a random vote.)

Good answer. That sounds believable enough.

Random vote: iamausername

That isn't random.
That's based off of my fos earlier.

You fossed three people in the very first post of the game. It was obvious that at least someone was going to randomvote one of them. So that was an unfair trap in my opinion

I'm thinking about Fallen's play, and thinking of whether it matches the play as Fallen

Angel

(Angel, alias for cop? Get it? ) in 763.

Seeing that Fallen Angel only registered about 2 months ago and has only completed two games, as far as I can see from his signature, I would expect there to still be some inconsistency in his playing between different games.

That being said, even though FA's behaviour has deserved some votes, I'm not too comfortable with the rapid speed of his wagon. Especially this:

FoS: Mastin

for stalling an FA lynch

Unvote, Vote: Fallen Angel

is really unnecessary. There are people whose opinions we haven't heard yet and there's absolutely no reason to end this day yet. Even if FA were to be lynched, and even if he did flip scum, there is still more information to be found today.

I am a

seer

. Each night, I can investigate someone to find out if they are a human or a werewolf. Basically, I'm a flavor cop. I win when the town outnumbers the mafia and werewolves combined.

Oh for god's sake, what was the idea in that? If your claim really is true, do you still expect to be around tomorrow? That's contradicting your goal to make it to the end of the game in the worst possible way.

Seriously, I don't know what to think about this. In the best case scenario, you're lying. In worst case scenario, you just doomed the whole town.

Unvote, Vote: CJMiller

[Tarballs]

Yeah, that's true. I was voting for you, then clicked Preview and saw CJ's claim. I guess I wasn't thinking too clearly and over-reacted. There's really no reason to vote for a seer claim at this point.

Unvote, Vote: OGML

CJ:

Why do you think it was a good idea to claim Seer?

[Tarballs]

CJ's claim was bad. At least we know who we're lynching tomorrrow if he's not dead.

There's a wifomy reason for the werewolves to not kill CJ, but yeah, it's rather unlikely they'd kill someone else instead.

Tarballs: I was simply trying not to get lynched, something other players seem intent on doing every game.

There were zero votes on you, so you weren't anywhere close to being lynched. I would've understood your claim if you were at L-1, but in this case it just didn't make sense. But I'm through with this case. What's done is done.

Mod:

My vote is on OhGodMyLife, not Yosarian2. Also, I believe it takes 7 votes to lynch, not 6, so Fallen Angel is actually at L-2.

[Tarballs]

Thanks to some of you rushing the day 1 lynch, I don't have much to work with here. I'll go with my vote from last day, as I can't find any reasons to change it.

Vote: OGML

[Tarballs]

Thanks to some of you rushing the day 1 lynch, I don't have much to work with here. I'll go with my vote from last day, as I can't find any reasons to change it.

Vote: OGML

This seems scummy since you just kind of bail on actually finding a reason to vote based on turned roles. Who seemed to refuse to vote FA as though they knew FA was town? Who seemed to work together yesterday, etc, should give you more than your first pick. Plus, how is your first pick valid NOW?

First of all, there's no one here who

knew

FA was town. Werewolves may have thought he was mafia, and mafia may have thought he was a werewolf. I had a newb town read of FA, so him flipping town didn't surprise me as much as it seems to have surprised some of you.

OGML seemed the most suspicious to me when I first voted him, was the most suspicious until the hammer, and remained the most suspicious when FA flipped. And thus far nothing has happened today that would change my mind about that.

Oh, and the case for me is that I thought it was a ploy as a mafia aligned player to "clear" themselves by hoodwinking us. See my voting post, but the other reasons was just generally scummy play. I felt mafia the moment I read that post, and even now, I am still shocked that

she

wasn't mafia. It...was just...I feel terrible for the screw up. But, live and learn, as they say.

It's 'he'.

And you shouldn't defend yourself, when no one's really even blaming you for the hammer. You gave your reasons when you hammered, no use to add anything to it now.

Mod: Prod Mastin, Caboose and Korejora please.

[Tarballs]

When FA was trying to push for an OMGUS lynch of CJ, in a situation where it was pretty obvious that CJ was in fact the most important pro-town power role in the game

I don't remember seeing anything like that. I'm guessing you refer to post #134, but FA never had a vote on CJ after he claimed seer.

What exactly is suspicious about him?

OGML wanted a quick FA lynch on day 1 and even fossed Mastin for "stalling the lynch".

Kore, why is agreeing with someone else's reasoning scummy? Must everyone joining a wagon find something new and interesting to nitpick about?

My thoughts exactly. People get accused of that way too much, generally speaking.

Anyway, I agree with you about Khamisa and tarballs are both looking scummy, and I'd be willing to go along with a lynch on either one. Kore, I don't really see the case on her.

What is the case on me, then? People are saying I look scummy, but haven't really presented any examples.

I'm really confused.

Being confused = Being scum. That's one of my favorite scumtells.

What exactly am I getting lynched for? Pointing out the reasonlessness and swiftness of the FA lynch?

That, especially

how

you did it, and also for your lack of scumhunting.


I think Khamisa's wagon is a lot better than FA's wagon yesterday - and I'm not saying it just because two dead townies obviously improve the chances of lynching scum today. But I'd like to at least hear Mastin's thoughts before anyone hammers, because he's only posted once during day 2, and his case on Khamisa wasn't a very strong one.

[Tarballs]

Ha, first of all I want to point out that Mastin didn't hammer Khamisa; he was already on the wagon, then unvoted and re-voted

Wait, but Yos2 was totally scummy yesterday for reasons I don't currently remember.

Reread is usually the answer for those situations.

And Tarballs has this weird fixation with me that has prevented him from taking part in the Khamisa wagon at all, though he was happy to cheer it on from the sidelines.

When I made my last post of Day 2, Khamisa was at L-1 at that point, so me hopping on that wagon would've ended the day prematurely. At the time of my second-to-last post, Khamisa was at L-4, I believe, and it wasn't much of a wagon at that point.

Do you see what I see?

Not quite. What is that supposed to mean?


My picks for the third mafia are Sotty7 and Caboose. It has to be one of them, but I'll need to reread to be totally sure. I'm agreeing with Mastin that we need to focus on the wolves - that would be the case even if a townie had been killed last night - so I'm not going lynch a mafioso claim today. Let the wolf(es) kill the last maf next night, if they can/want.

[Tarballs]

My picks for the third mafia are Sotty7 and Caboose. It has to be one of them, but I'll need to reread to be totally sure.

Has to be?

You know something I don't?

How could I know? And if I somehow miraculously did, would it make me scum? Your vote seems like an opportunistic hop on a wagon.

Anyways, my reason for suspecting the two of you was that you weren't on Khamisa's wagon yesterday, and I don't believe that the mafia would be very interested in intentional bussing when they possess no nightkill, but are still in danger of being nightkilled themselves. That might sound like WIFOM, but in my experience the danger of being nightkilled really does prevent bussing quite effectively.

Tar's reaction to the seer claim was scummy/jumpy.

We dealed with that matter already. No need to bring it up again. Now it looks like you're trying to gather more "evidence" against me to justify your earlier, weakish vote.

Today he went right with Caboose and myself with no reasoning,

not mentioning OGML as scummy at all

.

I thought I didn't need to state the obvious.

Tarballs: Can you explain why you were voting OGML on day 2? It looked kind of strange to me, and you didn't explain it; you just voted him on day 1 once it was pointed out to you that lynching the seer was a really bad idea, but with no actual reason for your OGML vote. Then you re-voted him on day 2, with no reason.

I gave a reason for my OGML vote in post 113. CJ hadn't made his seer claim when I started that post and I only saw it when I previewed my post before posting it. That made me change my vote from OGML to CJ. So, in a nutshell, OGML's post 107 seemed over-aggressive to me and that's what earned him my vote.

And because OGML wasn't lynched day 1, I voted him again on day 2 for the exact same reason, since the two flips didn't really change anything. If FA had flipped wolf, I very likely would've voted for someone else.

Considering that I think OGML looks pretty town here, I find it odd you voted for him for two days consecutivly and never gave any kind of reason at all.

I apologize for having different kind of opinions about people I see that in your opinion not being aggressive is a scum tell, while I think that being aggressive is more of a scum tell than a town tell.

Faking confusion (i.e. - "wolf(es)") over the set-up is scummy, especially considering it's an open set-up. You, like everyone else, should be aware that there are 2 werewolves and they do have an NK. Making it seem that you don't know this fact in order to make yourself appear to not be a werewolf is scummy.

I'm assuming you thought I don't know the amount of werewolves in this game. Well, I do know that there's two of them, but I don't know how many of them are still alive next night. And by "can" I meant

if

they're able to figure out who the last mafia is.

Funny how Caboose's vote is almost like an exact replica of Sotty's, after I pointed both of them out for being possible mafia.

[Tarballs]

So, you use that as retroactive evidence of me and Sotty being scum?

No, it just makes it look like you're buddying with Sotty.

I don't understand this arguement. For any closed game (or open game with more than 2 scum), there's a danger of being nightkilled whether you're mafia or not, but it still doesn't seem to stop the scum from bussing. I don't see what not having an NK has to do with anything. Having an NK isn't going to hide the fact that you bussed if you're scum.

In closed games there's at least a chance that there are no other killing forces, and if there are, you usually know it by day 2. And not having a NK means that your only way to get rid of the other scum group is by lynching, which means that they can potentially be out there for a long time. And lynching one of your own is automatically a free round for the other scum group.

One vote a wagon does not make. Nice try though.

Well, no, but your vote made it a wagon.

You weren't on the Kham wagon either so all this applies to you too right?

Yes, I suppose it does. I am also a potential mafia, but from my point of view it's clear that I am not mafia.

It's evidence that you are a poss wolf so yes I am going to bring it up again. I know you would rather we ignored it, but no. Also, how exactly did we “deal” with it?

Also my vote is “weakish”? Now that's weak.

I gave an explanation why I voted for CJ, so I no longer feel the need to discuss about it.

And judging from your post 231, the only reason why you voted for me was because I "knew" that either you or Caboose is mafia. So yes, I would call that a weak reason.

Aww, I wanna play too.
I found lots of scumtells.

Sure, you can come along. Now hurry up and tell us who your suspects are. Oh, and post a vote count while you're at it. Thanks.

[Tarballs]

So, you're thinking it can just be assumed that scum will always bus?

I have no idea where you got that impression.

This bothers me because you seem unconcerned with the other wolf. This means that either you know who the other wolf is OR you are bussing your partner so didn't think of it. This could be a slip, but I may be reading too much into it.

Reach?

Wulfy's the one who's reaching, not me. Check your quotes.

Yes, I suppose it does. I am also a potential mafia, but from my point of view it's clear that I am not mafia.

Such a convincing arguement.

I had to answer something to Sotty (well, maybe didn't need to, but wanted to, anyhow) and how am I supposed to prove anything to anyone? The only possible method would get me modkilled. And it's not like I'm the only one using that kind of arguments. For instance, just look how

And judging from your post 231, the only reason why you voted for me was because I "knew" that either you or Caboose is mafia. So yes, I would call that a weak reason.

Implying extra knowledge in a game of informed minority vs another informed minority vs uninformed majority is a weak reason for a vote?
Since when?

I didn't say it's a weak reason in general. But in this case it is, because if I was wolf, it would be impossible for me to know who the mafia are. Only way for me to know who the mafia are is that I'm mafia myself.


Now, if I could finally stop this near-useless arguing with my mafia suspects, I'd like to actually hunt some wolves.

First:

Nobody should hammer Mastin before he gets to post his case. Don't even think about it.

Secondly:

Mastin and OGML are suspicious of Yos, yet both of them are voting for a person who they suspect to be Yos's scum partner. I think it would be more beneficial for both of you to lynch Yos instead, yet I'm getting the feeling that you seem to be afraid(?) to lynch him at this point. Why is this?

Thirdly:

iamausername has been really under the radar in this game. Not sure if it means anything, though. But more analysis would be much appreciated.

[Tarballs]

Now, this is scummy. Why are you trying to direct people to lynch me? You're not voting me, and you really haven't attacked me at all; but it seems like you want other people to wagon me, and it looks like a scummy attempt to manipulate pro-town people into fighting each other. Am I missing something here?

OGML and Mastin have both done this action (attacking by association), which makes it very likely that one of them is scum with Yos2 and are trying to get a mislynch. They then expect the mislynch (=not wolf) would then result in Yos2 being unlikely wolf. Thus, they would get +scumhunting point and their (whoever is the actual wolf) partner would be free for that day, ensuring the last mislynch needed to win.

^ That, pretty much.


Now, I've been very patient thus far and haven't been irritated by Mastin's long posts full of quotes, but now I've officially lost my nerves So difficult to pick any quotes out of that jungle of text, especially when there are loads of completely useless things in there.

AS SCUM, I KILL PLAYERS WHO ARE GOOD/PRO-TOWN. PERIOD, END OF DISCUSSION. There are NO exceptions to this, AT ALL.

I find that very difficult to believe. Also, if your hypothetical scum partner(s) wants to kill someone who is not good/pro-town, then you're just going to bend them to do what you want?

Um, I already claimed NOT scum. So did Caboose, and Korejora. Pay attention!

Buddying up to two players, ignoring the other two who did it as well (Amongst them, Yosarian2, mind you).

That was back when people were still joking, and that was even a fairly obvious joke... in my opinion, at least.

This post seemed completely unnecessary. And seemed to be an overreaction, at that.

100% disagreeance. But you didn't know who CJMiller is, whereas iam did.

Yosarian confuses me.

This is evidence that Yos is NOT a member of the Mafia (further condemning him as a wolf, mind you).

It's not a very good evidence. Why couldn't a member of mafia say that about another member of mafia?

This suspicion could ALSO be the reason that Kore was night-killed.
(Remember: Yos2 is accusing me of not nk'ing people who support me. This seems to imply that he, himself, nk's people who do not support him and, in fact, are actually suspicious of him. MORE evidence against Yos2.)

WIFOM ALERT!!!

Wulfy - analysing situations instead of people. Knowing the angles is helpful, but I can't gauge him because I don't see enough opinion.
Caboose & Khamisa - post moar.
Yos - worth noting that I have no comment. Plenty of content but I'm still unsure.

Of these four neutral reads, one is a proven Mafia. I think the other partner is in there as well.

You

think

? Well, I

don't think

that he would "read" both of his partners as neutrals, but... it's WIFOM. We'll never guess which way it is, before the third mafia flips. So it's useless to try and use that as an evidence.


All in all, your case against iam is mostly based on what Yos thinks about him. iam hasn't really been acting scummy, in my opinion at least, and your examples of his scummy play are reaching, at best.

Your case against Wulfy as the last mafia is very wifomy, but I can forgive that since we're not that interested in finding the mafia today.

Your case against Yos is a lot better, but I'm not totally convinced by it either. But I'd like to know one thing:

Yos, how often do you use meta as your reasoning?

Because your case on Mastin was pretty much based on meta, and meta alone, until Mastin started his over-the-top self-defending.

[Tarballs]

Pro-tip, Mastin: Lying about what people have said dosn't work in forum mafia.

Next time you're scum,

I would avoid it.

I'm not liking the bolded part very much. Based on my limited experience, only scum use that line.

I am able to go for a Mastin lynch, and he is who I support today.

I think we can all figure that from the fact that you're currently on his wagon. Also, why do you believe OGML to be the second wolf?

If Mastin isn't wolf, than Yos2 is a possible next in line... but since i can't connect him to anybody, I can't see Yos2 as wolf....

That is a good point.


Mastin, if you have any final words that we need to hear, now would be the time to talk. Or have you given up?

[Tarballs]

For the record: I didn't post on this site during last night phase, but was recieving and sending PMs regarding a game I was about to mod. And I visited the site every day.

Tarballs was clearly perfectly happy to see FA lynched, but thought he could gain some town cred by saying "woah, slow down, guys".

FA deserved votes for acting anti-town. The reason he didn't earn my vote was because some new players tend to act anti-town regardless of their alignment, and I saw FA as that type of a player after looking at some of his previous games. I figured there was about a 50% chance for him to be scum, as his role really could've been anything, so I wanted to wait for more content from FA, or pretty much anyone, so that we could have a better chance than a coinflip. That's why I didn't like it when some people, OGML in particular, were pushing a speedlynch.

First of all, there's no one here who knew FA was town. Werewolves may have thought he was mafia, and mafia may have thought he was a werewolf. I had a newb town read of FA, so him flipping town didn't surprise me as much as it seems to have surprised some of you.

On D1, Tarballs says "FA's behaviour has deserved some votes". On D2, Tarballs "had a newb town read of FA". Anyone else seeing a problem here?

My answer above should answer this, as well.

So, Tarballs says "we need to focus on the wolves"; perfectly true. The wolves were (and still are) the bigger threat. And yet, in this post he offers two candidates for the third mafia, and makes no attempt to actually find the wolves that he says we should be focussing on. What's up with that?

Figuring out who the third mafia is narrows down the potential wolf candidates.

I agree that I could've done a lot more on Day 3... and I'll just leave it as that. No excuses.


I believe that the wolves did indeed screw up last night, because we pretty likely would've had the exact same suspects for this day, had they killed someone and made it a lylo. So this can't be a WIFOM trap "for stupid townies to jump on". That makes me believe that Yos has to be one of the wolves, and the other one is most likely Caboose, who seems to have forgotten about this game entirely. Really can't see how anyone else but those two could've failed to send a kill.

Vote: Yosarian2

I am about 100% certain he's wolf.

[Tarballs]

I kinda disagree with that. He

could

be mafia, who is afraid of being nightkilled next night - as he should be, as everyone seems to believe he's not wolf. If that's the case, it would actually make sense for him to point that out. But either way, it's interesting wifoming.

Let's see the possible endgame scenarios:

Wolf is lynched today, townie is nightkilled

3 townies, 1 mafia, 1 wolf left tomorrow. If a townie is lynched, wolf MUST kill mafia (or no-kill) or they lose. If wolf is lynched, town gets two chances at finding the mafia.[/area]

Wolf is lynched today, mafia is nightkilled

4 townies and 1 wolf left tomorrow. Two chances to find the wolf.[/area]

Townie is lynched today, townie is nightkilled

2 townies, 2 wolves and 1 mafia left tomorrow. If a wolf is lynched, they MUST kill mafia (or no-kill) or they lose.[/area]

Townie is lynched today, mafia is nightkilled

3 townies and 2 wolves left tomorrow. Two lylo days.[/area]

Mafia is lynched today, townie is nightkilled

3 townies and 2 wolves left tomorrow. Two lylo days.[/area]

In other news, I could also go with a Caboose lynch, since he's going to be lynched at some point anyway and this game is pretty much lost if he doesn't flip wolf.

Unvote, Vote: Caboose

That should be 3 votes on Caboose and 2 votes on me.

[Tarballs]

So your soul reason for dropping your 100% vote on Yos seems to because Caboose is going to be lynched at some point and to bump him above you in the vote tally.

Weak.

First of all, it's

about

100% vote. There is a slight difference. And I'm almost as convinced that Caboose is wolf. I even said that in post 334.

Secondly, people don't seem to want to lynch Yos today, so my vote on him is a waste. So why not change it?

[Tarballs]

Bah! Go mod!