Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace - Game Over! before 756

[TonyMontana]

Greetings, rebels

[TonyMontana]

(5/8 * 4/7)
20/56 = 36% chance of us screwing ourselves [/high school dropout]
To
What if we agree on someone not being king? To try to help our odds alittle?

[TonyMontana]

Do you mean, randomly choose one person not to vote for in the hopes they aren't king, so we have a better chance of hitting the king? I'm really hoping not...

No, I mean actually starting using analysis and strategy to play the game.

[TonyMontana]

Well, I happen to know for a fact that I'm not king.

Otherwise, I'd say Empking.

[TonyMontana]

Hey, you know what, I know for a fact I'm not king either

How about if all the rebels just reason based on that, then there's no chance of us losing!

It would be nice.
The point is that rolling dices isn't good strategy.

You chose to remove 4 people on a dice roll. It helped our chances barely.
4/12 Scum D1 = 33%
3/8 Scum D5 = 37,5%

1/12 King D1 = 8,3%
1/8 King D5 = 12,5%

Now we are 5 days in with no way to read anyone. I deem this strategy a failure.

[TonyMontana]

Very convenient how you chose not to say that opinion earlier, Tony.

Earlier? Like before yesterday when i replaced into the game?

[TonyMontana]

1 - TonyMontana (BlakAdder)
2 - Corvuus
3 - Empking
4 - hohum (Numberfourteen)
5 - ortolan
6 - Qanqan
7 - Trumpet of Doom
8 - zwetschenwasser

Original Roll String: 1d8

1 8-Sided Dice: (7) = 7

Original Roll String: 1d7

1 7-Sided Dice: (7) = 7

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[TonyMontana]

result: zwetschenwasser

zwet is not king.
Because what are the odds of not catching the king in 7 dice rolls? -.-

[TonyMontana]

It's not rocket science, you know.

It was a simulation of lynches.
1. You roll a dice
2. Remove the player with the number
3. Remove a number from the dice.
4. Repeat.
5. ????
6. PROFIT!

[TonyMontana]

It's called satire, people. As in me making fun of the rolling process.

[TonyMontana]

After reading zwet in isolation, I'm pretty sure he's scum.

[TonyMontana]

either way, what did you read in isolation?
C

Will get to it during the weekend. Pass time by reading up on someone else.

[TonyMontana]

How is this useful?

Said the king of useless oneliners.

What irked me was the way zwet seems to wanna emphasize how he certainly has no idea who the king is:

It would be amazing if Wall-e were the king...

Orangepenguin, WERE YOU THE KING??

Also, not much posting during the random lynches, except yesterday, with endless, useless "pro-town" comments

Vote: Zachrulez

He has to be a guard, right?

There's a very good chance you're a guard. Don't let scum manipulate us, people! Stay with the program...

Foolish grasshopper. It's clear that you don't want us rebels to end your reign of terror.

Random crapspouting! OMG!

emotional plea! OMG!

We have more than a 50/50 chance that Zach is a guard/king.

Well, we have a 4/9 chance. That's close to 50.

Uhhh.. I just checked your profile, and you've made 2000 posts since december? Explains the short, empty posts, i guess..

[TonyMontana]

Decent point, but you could also argue we were unlucky not to get more guards/ the king etc. Plus we haven't actually worked out our odds of winning if we continue using the strategy yet.

Actually we were not unlucky.
The chances of getting 2 scum was 21/55

[TonyMontana]

I'm alittle confused as to what questions you are referring to

[TonyMontana]

fair enough

On further calculations I see now that the chance of just getting 1 scum was 35/99, so you were correct after all.

[TonyMontana]

I'm not really following Trumpet's numbers. But they work.. It's just like in poker. Our odds of hitting a guard/king in the next two random lynches are 1-((5/8)*(4/7)) = 65%. By the same math, odds of us hitting a guard/king in the first 4 lynches were 1 - ((8/12)*(7/11)*(6/10)*(5/9)) = 86%

And given we barely pulled it through with 86% you wanna go ahead with the 65%, then?

[TonyMontana]

Barely? 86% pretty much expected we'd get 1 guard. 65% is not quite the slam dunk, but since we started playing the numbers, it kind of makes sense to finish the same way. Odds are still on our side it seems.

Sure, and if we land those 65% with a guard kill, we're down to 60%. Cap two more and it's 50/50. Did I hear "game-breaking" uttered? [face_palm]

[TonyMontana]

2 random lynches prob:

Kill king (win): 25%
Kill rebels (lose): 36%
Kill 1 guard: 32%
Kill 2 guards: 4%

Percent lost due to dropping out of high school: 3% (attribute to pro town outcomes)

[TonyMontana]

Vote: zwet

For trying to hard to look innocent, and trying to hard to look active.

[TonyMontana]

I'm so glad ortolan is here, cause I'm rarely bothered to defend my own jokes. :p

[TonyMontana]

You will be if you lynch me.

[TonyMontana]

Hey, it worked! I got him to make an appeal to emotion.

Unvote; Vote: TonyMontana

This last post clinches it.

Do not kid yourselves people, zwet is obvScum.

Why are you freaking out? He's at L-2, not L-1.

Exhibit A: Pretends he doesn't know what the count is. (

I'm at L-1

)

[TonyMontana]

I seriously mean it about not hammering. 99% sure TM and zwet are both town at this point.

Really? Cause I'd be willing to offer up a trade at this point.

[TonyMontana]

(2) zwetschenwasser - by TonyMontana and Trumpet of Doom

Where did my vote go?

I don't know what you are talking about

[/color]

[TonyMontana]

I'm ok with a TM and then Oro lynch.

I bet you are
If I were to have a say in the matter, I'd rather trade Oro with Zwet, and I wouldn't want to be the first to go.

Is it because

he has a case/wants to lynch TM

? Or is it because I am undecided about him ('neutral'). Why not post your 'phantom case' now?

I like how you put a slash there, because I have not seen a case, but I see 4 people who were quick to put me on L-1.
So please, how bout you offer up a case on the one you are holding to the fire. ¬¬

2 days until deadline. Veerus and ortolan, how bout you good folk join the zwet wagon, and let's see who has the balls to jump ship.

[TonyMontana]

I'm ok with a TM and then Oro lynch.

I'd also like to add that you don't seem interested in how I flip.
I'll flip rebel, in case you were wondering. But you don't care anyway, cause you seem to wanna go after ortolan for buddying, no matter how I flip.
If you wanna lynch ort no matter today's result, shouldn't you be trying to lynch him first then?

[TonyMontana]

The fact that people are hesitating up to the deadline date to hammer suggests that Tony is the king.

Solid logic there, King. I guess you are suggesting that 2 of the 3 people not voting me are guards, then?

I think the fact that we can't even get the ball rolling on you suggest you are king.

Seriously people, either kill zwet today, or kill him tomorrow. Either way, we win.

[TonyMontana]

*Really wants to hear what kind of game-shattering news ortolan is planning to bring forth*

[TonyMontana]

We're nearing a deadline and I'm ok with lynching either TM or zwet as I've previously indicated.... that said..

unvote;vote:TonyMontana

.. because he's just as likely to be a guard or king as zwet in my eyes, but TM's closer to lynch and we're working with a deadline here

A DEADLINE TWO DAYS AWAY, WITH A GUARANTEED LYNCH AT DEADLINE.

But good job on saving your king from being lynched today. SCHMUCK.

And with that, I bid you farewell.

I SAID GOOD DAY, SIR

[TonyMontana]

"We're working with a deadline"

Jesus Christ, you're either scum or dumb

[TonyMontana]

Did I mention it's a nightless game, btw? Jackass

[TonyMontana]

vote: zwet

-.-

[TonyMontana]

Should've listened to me the first time around...

[TonyMontana]

2 Veerus(aka TonyMontana) for mindlessly trying to bring us to LYLO

¿que?

[TonyMontana]

Oh snap.. veerus was the douche who hammered me.. [face_palm]

[TonyMontana]

My vote stays as well, and I'm feeling ToD's case for ort-guard.

Other posts to take note of:
Corvuus votes Zwet in RVS. Not exactly incriminating, but worth a mention.
in #305, Corvuus does alittle back and forth about picking zwet or emp as his #2 suspect. Ends up picking TonyMontana instead (not me, the other TM -.-)

Meh I'm tired of linking, basically corvuus keeps mentioning zwet as a third choice multiple times, then as his lynch is getting closer, he starts getting more in zwet's grill. Reeks of distancing.

[TonyMontana]

^So much for ort being zwet's guard.. (zwet flipping something else than king would've disproved the theory as well, but it's nice to get confirmation beforehand) Kinda bummer tho, I like the idea...

And I said "oh snap", thankyouverymuch. watch the language in front of the kids :p

I always like to knock down my own favourable points, so I would suggest veerus taking on corvuus to be null, since the guards and king doesn't know who the guards are.

As for Corvuus fingering ToD as town, as far as wifom go, it's about on par with him fingering zwet and you as scum. If there's a tomorrow, we'll discuss it then.

[TonyMontana]

^So much for ort being zwet's guard.. (zwet flipping something else than king would've disproved the theory as well, but it's nice to get confirmation beforehand) Kinda bummer tho, I like the idea...

And I said "oh snap", thankyouverymuch. watch the language in front of the kids :p

I always like to knock down my own favourable points, so I would suggest veerus taking on corvuus to be null, since the guards and king doesn't know who the guards are.

As for Corvuus fingering ToD as town, as far as wifom go, it's about on par with him fingering zwet and you as scum. If there's a tomorrow, we'll discuss it then.

[TonyMontana]

first off, sorry for double post

secondly

I have no qualms in saying I am the most objectively identifiably pro-town player in this game so far due to my results of: opposing lynch of TM first time round, advocating guard lynch (while in LYOL, and not thinking he was guard showing lack of perfect knowledge of the setup)

Opposing my lynch gets you a star in my book, but as far as confirming you, doesn't do much.
I can't make sense of the rest of the quote :S

Also, I seem to remember you saying you were 99% sure zwet was rebel. What have changed? You certainly don't need to vote him to confirm he's not your king, the lynch will settle that by itself.

[TonyMontana]

Well, if qanqan or empking want to prove they are not zwet's guard as well, we can cut this day short by 8 hours

[TonyMontana]

@corv - Tony specifically requested to replace back in. I didn't think I'd be able to find another replacement for veerus at that point. but I did seriously consider the implications, expecially because I knew he was on the right track with zwet and probably would get right back on his soapbox when I let him back in... but I think the choices were that or a completely inactive player. *shrug* Point taken, however.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

Well seeing as I replaced back in specifically to get zwet killed, there's prolly something to be said for letting me in being a bad call :p
In the end, I don't think it mattered much in this game.