Mini 743: Sanity Ensues - Over!

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Will post my comments on all of this, I've been very busy lately with work.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Well, now that I think about it, I agree with Azhrei regarding lynching Zero. It would be best if we wait, and if mafia NK him, we can get his sanity as a bonus.

Btw, can someone please explain me why are the pressure on hohum? I'm not defending him, I just want to know why Artem, Azhrei and GC (and possibly others) say he's scummy, in order to see if I missed something. Hohum acted weird, but not enough for me to cast a vote. So, I want to know if I missed something or what.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Hmmm... After reading GC's and Artem's post (and also reading a few pages back), I think I have to agree that hohum is scummy. However, what it strikes me the most is that attitude of him of trying to lay low because he's about to get lynched. And, it's the second time he does that. Not good enough for me, so:

Vote: hohum

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Just a question: if you are willing to get hammer, why don't you hammer yourself?

[Shinnen_no_Me]

If hohum flips out mafia, then we know who we should be looking for the next day...

[Shinnen_no_Me]

So, that hammers him, right? I agree with GC that hohum's lynch, should he flips town, won't help us much for the discussion in the next day, as there are good and valid reasons to have voted against him.

However, ZEEnon's suddenly withdraw really draw my attention.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Mafia has been zetta lucky lately... First a cop, and now a doc? Hmm.....

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Ok, so, something tells me that everybody has a power role. So, should we mass claim?

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Ok, I'll claim. I'm a cop. In the past two nights, I investigated hohum and Green Crayons. Both of them with guilty results. That doesn't help much, first, due to hohum's role, and second, because there's a high chance I'm a paranoid cop. -_-u

[Shinnen_no_Me]

We currently have four cops, three doctors, a miller and a townie, right? We're missing Azhrei's claim. Supposedly, we're also missing a role-blocking role. Ok, taking that into account, I'm going to say my opinion regarding this: it is quite possible to have four cops, one for each sanity (sane, insane, paranoid and naive). However, I don't think we have that much doctors. Still, that's a chance... Well, let me post a few possibilities about or gameset:

-As there's a small chance that Charrat is actually a paranoid cop (when he protected Zero last night, he also roleblocked him), we can have this following setting: 4 cops (each one with a different sanity), a townie, a miller, three doctors, and a single mafia. The problem with this setup is that it's unlikely that mafia is only one player and that when ZEE died, there was no sanity attached to his role, whic kind of implies that there aren't doc sanities.
-Taking into account that last part, another setup is 4 cops, one miller, only one doc, and two townies and two mafia (well, that's just a wild guess). My point with this setup is that there's only one doc, and the other two claims are fake. But, what are the chances that both scum would claim to be a doc? Why not claim cop?

Personally, I think that the four cop claims are true, but the doc's are suspicious. However, I'm not 100% sure of that. As I said, there's a chance that there are two or even three cops, but I don't think that's likely.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Ok, I have this idea: why don't we lynch one of the cops? I know it's rushed, but it's only a fast idea I just got. That way, we can know for sure such cop investigation, and thus have something to begin with. The problem is, what if we lynch a cop that is paranoid?

I can't post much more now, but I'll be expanding this idea with it's pros and cons later in the night.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

It's not that I want to rush things, it's that my idea was a rush. I mean, it's not that we're just random lynching, it's that we lynch one of the cops, after analizing all the known facts.

But wait... That's a not a good idea after all... I had forgotten that we're so close to endgame... Hmmm...

Well, I'm sure I'm a cop. And no, I didn't expect to be so many power roles in the game. True is, I didn't even expected a doc. That makes me scummy? Pfft.

It's true that there may be a godfather, but I'm more inclined to believe that there's only one mafia member (and maybe, a godfather. Now, that would be bastardly.) GM's words about this game has really kept me thinking of that possibility (only one mafia).

Another idea that has kept ringing a bell in my head, is that the mafia is hiding behind a vanilla townie role. Taking into account the type of the game, I think that two plain townies would be highly unlikely. But well, that's just my idea.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

When I said that, I wasn't thinking in the option that there were so many power roles. I believed there were at least 3 or so cops, but that's all. No docs. But then, when someone suggested the mass-claim, the thought of that everyone had a power role just came to my mind immediately.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Just because of that! I was no aware of doc existance, but when the GM said it was a doc, I could only think in how lucky the mafia was. In that moment, as much I thought that ZEE was the only doc, thus the luckyness of the mafia.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I don't know. The idea just came to my mind. Call it "guts" or "feeling" or "sixth sense" or whatever you want.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Eh? I did not get right what you meant.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I guessed that, but I don't quite understand what he thinks from that post. Can you be a bit clearer?

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Hmm... It's true that my lynching can reveal more than other's cops, but here's an issue: if we lynch (and I include me) me, wouldn't be losing the game? I know that I proposed that before, but I didn't remember that we were so close to endgame.

How about if we don't lynch anyone today, and tomorrow, after more cop investigations, we decide who to lynch?

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I'm sorry, I've been a bit busy. I'll answer your post soon, GC. Sorry.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Ok, let's start my answer:

In post 400, you claim that the mafia is lucky to have killed both a cop and a doctor. Do you agree with my sentiment that your 400 sounds a bit congratulatory, if you were to be scum?

I won't deny that it may sound congratulatory, but it's true sentiment is that of a surprise.

Now, your post 400 seems to mesh quite nicely with some of your later sentiments that you didn't think that there was a large population of power roles in this game. However, you freely admit that you thought there were at least three cops, which makes the ratio of town power roles:general town population approximately 1:2... giving scum about a 50% chance of hitting a cop in their night action. If you thought there were so many cops in the game, why did you include the scum hitting a cop with your surprise and you considering the mafia were "zetta lucky lately?" Shouldn't it have been reduced to simply surprise that the scum hit a doctor, since you were assuming there wasn't one in the game?

First, I'm not that good with numbers, so I didn't make that type of analysis. And I included a cop because I was surprised that they hit two power roles in the two nights. As scum you might be, you probably knew the outcome of the night, hence why you weren't surprised.

Then, you go from surprise that the mafia could hit two power roles in a row to a belief that power roles are going to be a dime a dozen. Do you see any sort of contradiction in these two posts just four hours apart?

In looking Art's MC post over, I personally don't have my gut telling me that there are going to be a plethora of power roles outing themselves shortly. Do you have any explanation other that "gut" as to why you thought this way? Or, if not, do you have any explanation as to why your gut was feeling this way?

Not really. The thought just crossed my mind after what Artem suggested the mass claim. Hmmm, let me put it this way: have you ever watched the House MD? Well, if you have, you'll probably know how House comes with the answer. He's talking about something else, and then someone says something vaguely related to his case, and the answer then just appear in House head. Something like that happened to me. Artem suggested MC, and after I read that, the first thing that came to my mind was that there were plenty of power roles. So, call it gut, feeling, or whatever you want. There's no other reason to that. That makes me scum? Pfft.

Finally, you have expressed that you believe there to be numerous cops in this game. But your suggestion from the beginning has been to lynch a cop (while explaining it away as a tactic that would steer us away from "random lynching," which I'm not entirely sure out of what butt you pulled that out of). If you think multiple cops are probable, why do/did you think we should focus our lynch on a cop?

Also, do you not find it suspicious that after you wanted to lynch a cop and realized that would ultimately pit a lynch between me vs. you (since nobody suspects zer0), that you pulled a 180 and argued for a scumbag's safe haven: the no lynch?

When I gave the idea of lynching a cop, I totally forget the fact that if we are (possibly; I still think that there's a small chance there's only one mafia) at lylo if we decide to lynch. If we lynch a cop, we would get more information that if we lynch another townie. With the lynch there's a chance to know for sure the alignment of other townies. That's why I suggested a lynching a cop. Then, I realized that we could likely lose if we just lynch like that, so I withdrew my idea. After that, I suggested a no-lynch, not to avoid a possible lynch of me, but to get more information. Supposedly, we're at lylo now. if we don't lynch today, we will also be at lylo tomorrow, but with some possible extra cop results.

And, I'm not scared of a lynch against me. I just don't want the town to lose. I know that I'm a cop. In fact, I don't even doubt that you're a cop as well, GC. My suspicious lay with the docs. If it weren't for the high chance of losing the game if a townie gets lynched today, I would even give myself for a lynch. Also, I really don't like how all the suspicious are within both of us, when, as I said before, having three docs is more suspicious (or, the other single townie).

[Shinnen_no_Me]

So, it makes me scum that I didn't, beforehand, make the math for the ratio of power roles? Pfft.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Well, if you want another explanation for that, then I would have to lie. If you think I'm scum, why don't you vote for me?

You're all question something that's not really important. If you don't want to believe me that the thought just crossed my mind like that, then don't believe me.

Now, something is making me feel that either GC or Artem are scum. They're trying to much to make a lynch, out-ruling the possibility of a no-lynch when it leads us to a situation similar to what we are now. Both of them are taking the worst case scenario, while ignoring the good possibilities. I know it's good to always expect that, but you can't base a whole argument on that. Does no-lynching get us an instant lose for the town? No. Does a mislynch get us an instant lose for the town? Yes.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I fail to agree with you. A no-lynch would led us to the same spot we are now, with the possibility of having more information. You're basing your suspicious in me wanting so hard for a no-lynch, but, as I said before, does a no-lynch guarantee an instant town lose? No. It doesn't. It gives us the chance of getting more information. How that can be scummy? You say that one cop will die, the other will be roleblocked, but I believe there's another cop, so that means we'll get one sanity confirmed and another investigation to work with. We may have a godfather, but we can't do anything about it. We are not certain about it, so any speculation would lead us to wifom. Which, end the end, will be a wild guess.

Ah, also:

If they kill GC (a very silly move heir part, if he is a cop) then we should be able to guarantee one scum, and his sanity wil be sane or insane.

I don't think the mafia needs advice, Azhrei. Do you think it's good idea to give advice like that to your enemies? Hmmm... Suspicious... Oh, if anyone who said that I was congratulation the mafia with post 400, then Azhrei's words should look really scummy. Don't they?

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Ok, you have given your reasons, I've given mine. It seems that you think that a lynch will benefit the town the most, so let's go with that option. Most people say that either GC or me are scum, so let's make a simple census on the matter.

How many of you think GC is scum? How many of you think I'm scum?

I, myself, think that neither of us is scum. Yeah, we both have argued a lot to defend what we think it's the best option, but in truth, I don't feel GC is scum.

Shin is scum - 0
GC is scum - 0
Neither is scum - 1
Both of them are scum - 0

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Now, that's helpful...

[Shinnen_no_Me]

^How's that? If we don't vote, we don't lose immediately.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I still think that it's strange that you think that pushing a no-lynch is scum. As I said before, a no-lynch won't get us an immediate lose. For that matter, is just another approach to out problem. So, even thought I won't be pushing it anymore, I won't just let pass comments like that, because they just reflect what you think, not a fact.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

So, with the deadline so close, what are we going to do?

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I have no much to say anymore. I know that I'm town, and that my lynch will make the (probably) the town lose. And what's worst, I don't even have serious bases to accuse someone. However, let's try something:

...

After some thinking, everything I've come up is pure wifom. The other cops may as well be lying, Zero with his convenient second night action roleblocked (and with his vote), and GC with his different results in his investigations. The doctors, I still think that three of them are just too much. And, finally, the vanilla townie which I just can't fit in the middle of so many power roles.

But as I said, everything's so wifom that I just can't make something concrete.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I know, but there's also this crazy possibility: Zero is scum who made an early claim to ensure a higher trust among town. Later, he decided to play as "roleblocked" instead of being killed in the night. That way, he wouldn't have to fake a second result, thus lowering the chances of being caught in a lie.

Yes, it's a bit crazy, but it's an option too. Everything's so wifom lately...

[Shinnen_no_Me]

*sigh...*

Way to lose, town.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

I'm being honest...

Good job, mafia. I must admit it, you played nicely.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

-_-U

[Shinnen_no_Me]

First time I get a townie power role, and I get killed... -_-U

Any roads, great game, GC. You are truly a worthy opponent and a great player.