Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace - Game Over! before 756

veerus · Post Post #372 (isolation #0) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 12:01 pm

Hi guys, I'll read through the thread tonight.

veerus · Post Post #373 (isolation #1) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:48 pm

I'm not really following Trumpet's numbers. But they work.. It's just like in poker. Our odds of hitting a guard/king in the next two random lynches are 1-((5/8)*(4/7)) = 65%. By the same math, odds of us hitting a guard/king in the first 4 lynches were 1 - ((8/12)*(7/11)*(6/10)*(5/9)) = 86%

I suppose 65% isn't that bad...

But if I was going by play.. I'd say that zwet and TonyMontana are the most likely guards/kings as they seem to be derailing the town the most (though in zwet's case, he's always pretty useless so I'd rather lynch TM first)

veerus · Post Post #377 (isolation #2) » Tue Mar 17, 2009 1:11 pm

TonyMontana wrote:
veerus wrote:I'm not really following Trumpet's numbers. But they work.. It's just like in poker. Our odds of hitting a guard/king in the next two random lynches are 1-((5/8)*(4/7)) = 65%. By the same math, odds of us hitting a guard/king in the first 4 lynches were 1 - ((8/12)*(7/11)*(6/10)*(5/9)) = 86%
And given we barely pulled it through with 86% you wanna go ahead with the 65%, then?

Barely? 86% pretty much expected we'd get 1 guard. 65% is not quite the slam dunk, but since we started playing the numbers, it kind of makes sense to finish the same way. Odds are still on our side it seems.

veerus · Post Post #385 (isolation #3) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 3:51 pm

There isn't really much to say. #14 was barely active and hohum zeroed in on a single player with what seemed to be an out-of-game agenda. Was there something specific you wanted me to look at?

veerus · Post Post #428 (isolation #4) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 1:04 pm

We're nearing a deadline and I'm ok with lynching either TM or zwet as I've previously indicated.... that said..

unvote;vote:TonyMontana

.. because he's just as likely to be a guard or king as zwet in my eyes, but TM's closer to lynch and we're working with a deadline here

veerus · Post Post #432 (isolation #5) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 1:16 pm

He can still say whatever he wanted to say after the results are revealed. His theory, if anything, should be helped by the result of today's lynch.

veerus · Post Post #437 (isolation #6) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 2:01 am

I'm not a guard.. it was a poor play on my part but I really didn't expect much to change with a day before deadline and TM did seem scummy to me. Your case seems mainly circumstantial but you did pick out a few comments that I remember felt a bit odd when I was reading the thread but didn't really ping the radar significantly enough to mention. But considering a majority of the game went by without much scumhunting, this is probably a good last resort to consider. You have brought up too many possible links to ignore.

vote: Corvuus

veerus · Post Post #445 (isolation #7) » Tue Mar 24, 2009 1:33 pm

so do we continue ort's line of reasoning? if so, is qangan today's lynch?

veerus · Post Post #454 (isolation #8) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 4:55 pm

Read ortolan's post.

veerus · Post Post #455 (isolation #9) » Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:42 pm

fyi, see sig