Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[Illumina]

I'm currently up to page 20. I should be caught up by wednesday or thursday, but I'll request a deadline extension if I get behind.

[Illumina]

Okay, I'm up to 30 now. It's painful to read about you guys lynching Cephrir, when I'm wondering why quints is still alive. Maybe the next twelve pages will explain why...

(Also, I predicted SC was scum way early.)

[Illumina]

Atlas seemed kinda town to me, too, but on re-read his 157 seems like a forced attempt to start a wagon on mitey at a time when he wasn't doing anything suspect. He did a similar thing with zeppo in his 181, but that kind of depends how suspicious you found zep's apparent fishing.

Most of what I find scummy is from quints, though. I think he's definitely scum, and is probably partners with LF. The most damning part is on page 27: In his 656, quints says that we've learned everything we possibly can from Rx, and advocates for quickly lynching him to end the day. Two posts later, Ythill calls him out for wanting to end the day so quickly when it looks like Rx is going to be lynched anyway. quints' defense in 659 is kinda weak, and also includes a little distancing attempt from LF. On 665, quints advocates for leaving SC alive seeing that he's doomed to die at some point anyway.

Here's the good part: Once OGML condemns SC and pushes for his lynch, though, quints flipflops in his 667, not wanting to be caught in the lurch defending scum once the card flips. Interestingly, LF also quickly changes his tune in his 669, despite having supported a Rx lynch not long before. This is an odd and abrupt change for a town LF. If he's scum, it makes much more sense to buss and take credit for a mafia kill (in light of SC being in danger from OGML) than being responsible for a town death, if SC's in danger. After this, note how active quints is in doing unofficial votecounts and pushing for SC.

This scum pairing also makes a lot of sense in light of Ythill getting killed N1: he noted their quick switches in his 671, and suspected quints the most before he died.

D2 also has some sketchy stuff from quints: he jumps on a budding Cephrir wagon in 729 with no reasoning, with a sketchy assist in 850 from LF. Once Ceph flips town and D3 rolls around, quints argument in 862 is that analyzing his reasoning on Ceph would be unproductive, and that hindsight is always 20/20. In the same post, he tries to redirect attention away from himself by initiating a new wagon on Rx.

Next comes the silly doc claim. Note how quints tries to redirect focus back onto Rx in 878, and amusingly LF does some distancing here in his 879. In 887, Corvuus asks quints why he avidly supported a Rx lynch knowing scum SC was on it, a pertinent question. His response in 892 is pretty unconvincing:

On day 1, I thought he was inexperienced scum getting bussed by SC. I thought it was likely that SC would try to 'confirm' himself by being on a scum wagon.

It was quints who earlier said that SC was doomed to die at some point anyway, so we might as well leave him alive. Given this, SC bussing a scum Rx makes absolutely no sense in this scenario, as Corvuus accurately points out in the next post. For me, this failed defense seals the deal.

After that, quints distances from LF in his 957, and LF tries to redirect attention by bringing up the possibility of multiple factions in 992. Right on cue, quints tries to advance this line of discussion in the next post.

I also found LF's drunkpost (978) interesting, for the same reason Elmo did: the most logical way to read it is LF being surprised his buddy's claim actually worked.

So basically, I think we've got a quints/LF team, or quints is our last scum if its only two mafia.

Vote: quints

, putting him at L-1.

[Illumina]

Btw, I'm caught up now. >>

I'd like to go in favor of a deadline extension, too, so we can take the time we need. This could be a lylo situation if we have 3 mafia, if I'm not mistaken.

[Illumina]

I'm convinced I've found our last scum, but I'll weigh in on everyone else.

Corvuus seems like the most obvious town to me.
Elmo seems townish.
Macavity and Jazzmyn are neutral to me, because I don't have a very good read on them compared to everyone else.

Sorry qwints, I've been spelling your name wrong all this time.

Qwints' latest defense looks pretty weak to me, like he's trying to deflect attention onto me for doubting his silly claim. Normally I'd worry that he could, maybe, be the doctor, but here's the part I just can't get around: If you knew SC was an impostor, why would you ever support a Rx lynch at that point? Your reason for it (as Corvuus and I have pointed out) doesn't add up. SC bussing a scum Rx at that point doesn't make any sense from a scum perspective.

Also: why do you want LF to go first, qwints? Trying to distance yourself from him?

[Illumina]

It's not just you. LF needs to pull a major trick to shake the linkage between himself and qwints, and what you just saw was probably it. This is assuming, of course, we didn't just off a doctor, but somehow I feel pretty confident. Pending the flip, LF should be killed tomorrow with great expediency.

[Illumina]

Corvuus: I am vanilla townie, so we could get a draw if there's one scum left and we lynch them today. qwints looked really scummy to us both, but I guess I should have hesitated since no one tried to counterclaim him. I'm thinking MacavityLock is the last scum (and if so, he played well).

[Illumina]

Okay, let's take this slow and do it right. It seems to me this all hinges on whether LF is SK or lying mafia, am I right? Does town have the best chance (or most likely draw game) lynching mafia today?

Assuming that's the case, it looks like either LF or Macavity for scum today. Most of what I had on LF assumed qwints was his buddy, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be scum.

Macavity: can you convince us that LF is scum and not you?

[Illumina]

Your 1086 seems to be predicated upon Corv being scum, which I don't think is very likely.

Corvuus: Why, exactly, did you claim SK?

[Illumina]

It's more of a qualified no, actually. I'm not sure what to make of Corv's claim yet. Corv has looked pro-town to me, and you've looked neutral.

[Illumina]

Corv's lynch is my best play, and probably the rest of the town's best play too.

Wait, is there a difference between your best play and the town's best play? Interesting.

Also, if you think they're both scum, how would you feel about lynching LF first?

[Illumina]

I think Elmo's earlier assertion is correct: Corv seems to be attempting a fakeclaim/crosskill plan that he thinks will maximize chances. I don't think its the best way forward, but I still tend to think he's town.

And actually, Elmo, you make a good point. qwints being the doctor threw me off, but LF could still be scum fakeclaiming -- qwints blocking two nightkills isn't the most likely scenario (but still possible). We might also consider that maybe the theoretical SK's kills got through some nights and scum kills got blocked.

I'll take a closer look at both LF and Maclock today, when I get back from class.

[Illumina]

I'm still torn between LF and Maclock, but the deciding factor is the unlikelihood of qwints blocking 2 kills with an SK and the consistent distancing SC did from LF after he got in trouble and claimed doc. I'm leaning towards an LF lynch unless I can be convinced otherwise.

[Illumina]

Sorry it took me so long to respond. Most of my case against you was linking you to qwints, which is kinda obsolete now. However, I still find it unlikely that qwints successfully blocked a kill every night. In this situation, that's the strongest indicator I can find.

Would you mind linking/reiterating your case on ML?

[Illumina]

There could be just 2 scum total, not three. Since I suspect we're in lylo, it's a case of who's the best lynch right now, in case we don't get another. I still tend to think LF is our scum, because a SK needs nightkills, and we haven't been seeing 2 kills per night. qwints blocking kills so successfully is just not that likely. I'll analyze the game more in the next few days.

[Illumina]

Well, how do you explain that we've only had one kill per night? Did qwints just get that lucky? I doubt it.

Also, Corv: what makes you believe LF's claim?

[Illumina]

How about why you think ML is mafia?

[Illumina]

Corv, you're being silly. You said above that you don't believe LF's claim... Isn't that significant? Like Elmo said, you've got at least one townie disagreeing with you that the ML lynch is as incredibly obvious as you're making it out to be. At least be patient with us so we can do things right in lylo.

It seems to me that ML not being hammered tells us the following:

1) I'm not scum with LF or Corv, since the game would already be over.
2) Elmo isn't scum with LF or Corv for the same reasons.
3) If ML is town, two mafia left would have already won (except if the team is Corv and LF, who are already voting for him).

Unless I'm missing something, it's not guaranteed that ML is the last scum based on this fact.

LF: Could you reiterate the case? Just a concise summary will do, so I know what to look for.

ML: Please do tell us your case on LF.

[Illumina]

...

Corvuus, when this is over, I'm nominating you for an Overzealous Townie award.

So ML not being hammered tells us that he is scum.

How did you arrive at this conclusion? And when does the next interstellar shuttle leave so I can get there, too? Please tell me what I'm missing.

Not sure what you mean by my post #10: I've never wanted to lynch you. I was talking about what we could logically deduce based on ML still being alive, that's all.

[Illumina]

At this point I'm leaning towards LF. Corvuus has lost most of his town cred in my eyes, but that only reinforces choosing LF over ML.

What is your thing with Corv?

I've got a travel day today, I'll try and do more serious analysis within a day or two.

LF: In a few sentences, what are the most convincing reasons to vote ML?

[Illumina]

The only possibility

would be that scum are afraid to hammer since they think SK would target them and they might 'miss' or hit NK resistance.

Are you sure this is true? Explain it to me.

I am 100% willing to goad/bully/force someone to lynch obvious ML scum. I still don't see why you are hesitating or unwilling to do so, but also unwilling to say why LF is scum aside from 'if LF is scum, we have to lynch today'.

What you're accusing Elmo of is exactly what you're doing. It's making me doubt you're pro-town, and only makes me lean toward LF more.

Why is ML certain scum

, Corv?

[Illumina]

I'd love an extension.