Mini 159 - Medieval Mafia - Game over!

[chaotic_diablo]

I will make a random idea. The personification in 'shadows' in post 2 could actually refer to 'The Shadow', which in turn means that 'The Shadow', the player, was the one doing the lurking. What the lurking is for, i have no idea. Anyway, this is just a wild guess and isn't really that serious.

[chaotic_diablo]

I will make a random idea. The personification in 'shadows' in post 2 could actually refer to 'The Shadow', which in turn means that 'The Shadow', the player, was the one doing the lurking. What the lurking is for, i have no idea. Anyway, this is just a wild guess and isn't really that serious.

[chaotic_diablo]

I agree with Dodgy. Odds and statistics are pretty useless in a mini game. So, in order to make everyone happy, let's first establish how many killing groups we THINK there are at this point, then decide a coarse of action.
My opinion is to pick on Medieval Cow. Why? For bringing up the useless sense of odds and statictics while having medieval in his name, which actually might coincide with his role.
My other opinion is that we only have one killing group at this point.

[chaotic_diablo]

Alright, then we all agree that the statistics are important. Now, let's move along and try to change the statistics and odds to a protown advantage.
Meaning: Giving us our survival odds is depressing. Please help improve those odds.

vote: seol

[chaotic_diablo]

coarse of action:
1. unvote your random votes
2. either vote for seol or IS
3. we wrench the claim out of one of them and continue from there

p.s. I've heard IS is unlikely to survive past night 2. I don't know why, but I think it has to do with something with him screwing his own team over or something.

p.s.s Statistics are useless.

p.s.s.s Please explain how we can use these statistics at this point of the game. I find it annoying that we take the time to read it, but don't benefit from it.

[chaotic_diablo]

Well you asked for it. One could, theoretically, decide, based on the likelihood of what we might be up against, whether they wanted to randomly lynch someone and be done with it, wait around until they have a decent inkling to go with in trying to lynch someone, or vote for a no lynch altogether. Factors that might affect this decision could include: How many kills we can expect a night, how many days we can afford to go without lynching someone in the mafia before we lose (Think about how the game changes if we go from 3 mafia to 4, or to 3 plus a serial killer, or even to 2 groups of two), etc. Now, while I never claimed that the odds I came up with proved anything, one can assume certain things from them with a fair degree of certainty and act accordingly, if one so chooses. I worked them out only as a way to help myself think out what I wanted to do, and I posted them so that those who were interested could use the data or point out where I might have made a mistake (which a few people did). I apologize most profusely if I wasted your time, or made your head hurt with them, as that was not my intention. I promise that in the future, should I post any messages with odds or statistics in them, I will clearly mark the beginning and end of said odds and statistics so that you don't have to hurt yourself reading them.

So your suggesting that using math, we can either lynch someone randomly, get some clues, or vote no lynch? Not only that, but there are factors such as how many kills at night there will be and how many days we can afford?

One more thing, those statistics are all useless. All your doing is repeating what other people have said in different games. That is annoying, irritating, and repetitive. Not only that, it's useless because most people here already know that information. For the people who don't, your just hurting their brain.

P.S. Thank you for correcting me with the P.S. stuff, I always get confused whether it's P.P.S, or P.S.S.

[chaotic_diablo]

says the guy who holds the gun.

Anyway, like you said, astronaut, IS is IS. From IS's post about Iammers, it's apparent he didn't read the thread. My guess is that he didn't want to read a bunch of statistics and stuff.

[chaotic_diablo]

I'll have to disagree with STD. Townies are not safe lynches.

[chaotic_diablo]

Here's the big difference between and cop/doc and a townie. A townie has no ablilities except for voting. However, townies are the majority of the game(7-8). cops and docs only represent a minority of the people in this game(2). As those townies go down, scum has more representation in the voting system. Cops and docs are there to sway the decision of the townies and prevent the townies from lynching one another.

Now, let's examine Iammer's scumness. Most of it is due to mathematical incorrections and etc. However, math isn't everyone's forte. If i remember, there's that little phrase there to check his math. Not only that, but he also offered the make statistic to include 2 killing groups, which goes against his sureness that there is only one killing group.

Besides, there are much better targets than Iammers.

P.S. The numbers above are estimations.

[chaotic_diablo]

sorry for the double post, but i want to correct the word Iammers, to Iammars.
I aslo want to

unvote seol

[chaotic_diablo]

woopee!!! A day one no solid proof bandwagon. the first bandwagon is to analyze how people are doing, not randomly lynch a person. In my opinion, Soylent Green is the better target.

[chaotic_diablo]

i think the attacks are connected. The difference in blood meant blood and ink mixed together. The time periods all seem to fit. One has time to break in through the window in the middle of the night, behead the alchemist, exit through the window, cover the tracks, and then murder the warhero in the morning. The only problem is why the attacker would bring ink...

vote soylent Green

One more thing, if the window was never broken into, then we should suspect the people who have access to the room through the door. since the hero was harmed by slashing and gouging, that means that he was attacked by a dagger or knife of some sort.

[chaotic_diablo]

I agree with IS. We've established that there are 2 killing groups, now let's move on and get more clues.

[chaotic_diablo]

I voted Soylent Green due to the fact that she hasn't contributed anything. most of her posts either said IS is wierd or she has no idea what all this statistics stuff when the current issue isn't about the statistics. Not only that, she accuses me of keeping town from figuring stuff out. That is a pretty contradictary statement for one who isn't contributing at all.
Not only that, but at the beginning, i thought she voted STD for fun, but then her later post suggested she was sticking with STD. This gives me the impression that she knows something. However, she then unvoted STD and said it was a random vote. That is scummy in my view.
I don't buy her 'new' status in the game. I'd call that just another excuse with all of ther other ones she has posted. I'd say she is hiding something or trying to lose suspicion. My guess is the latter.

@Seol, what the heck are you thinking? Of course the post is just speculation! I combined what i thought in the first night scene with the second night scene and came with a theory that it might be possible to have one killer. There's no justification, but that theory changes as the game progresses. we can't just exclude the night scenes, sometimes they give valuable clues.