Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[qwints]

Hello.

I'm replacing Atlas.

[qwints]

I'm not satisfied with your attitude, Ythill. I'd rather go for no lynch at day one than lynch a townie. But hey, that's your choice.

I still haven't caught up yet, but this "preference" is completely wrong. No-lynch is almost never the correct choice on D1.

HOS: Apothecary

[qwints]

Here are my initial impressions based on a quick read through.

1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones. On the other hand, we can't lynch a claimed doc without a counterclaim on d1 so the case against SC should be tabled for now.

2. Apothecary seems unsure of basic strategies and basic rules. Inexperience could be one explanation. Pretending to be noob town could be another. I didn't see a lot of motive behind some of the wrong things he said until this movement for a no lynch.

3. The ythill v llamafluff fight is too dense for me to get a solid read on. My initial impression was that llama was getting the better of it, but I need to check the evidence for the claims they've made before I pick a side.

In conclusion, it looks like apothecary is the most likely lynchee for today, and I'm okay with that.

[qwints]

Here are my initial impressions based on a quick read through.

1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones. On the other hand, we can't lynch a claimed doc without a counterclaim on d1 so the case against SC should be tabled for now.

2. Apothecary seems unsure of basic strategies and basic rules. Inexperience could be one explanation. Pretending to be noob town could be another. I didn't see a lot of motive behind some of the wrong things he said until this movement for a no lynch.

3. The ythill v llamafluff fight is too dense for me to get a solid read on. My initial impression was that llama was getting the better of it, but I need to check the evidence for the claims they've made before I pick a side.

In conclusion, it looks like apothecary is the most likely lynchee for today, and I'm okay with that.

[qwints]

Apothecary, now you're just being silly. Saying 2 people are scum is not saying we should lynch 2 townies.

vote:Apothecary

[qwints]

I believe you're at L-1. Time to claim apothecary.

[qwints]

I also really don't like the timing of qwint's vote. Comes in, here are my initial impressions on a quick read through, now let me put someone at L-1 seven hours later with an epicly weak reason. That's pretty opportunistic, at best; I could easily see a scumbag coming in and trying to push through the easy lynch. 541 is a pretty terrible reason for a vote, even in isolation.

Sure, some new players advocate no lynch due to naivete. BUT this isn't Apoth's first game and he has made a lot of basic 'mistakes' that there's not really a reason to. I voted not "in isolation", but based on a failure of Apothecary to improve his understanding. Look at Apoth's post 540:

Oh yeah Ythill, cause two townies dead in one day is certainly better!
But of course you wouldn't care about that, because you're scum.

This was in response to a great deal of criticism for suggesting no lynch.

On the claim that I moved too quickly in voting - I don't feel the need to ease into a game once it's well under way. In the time between my initial read and my vote, I looked back through the thread. A key piece, which others have highlighted, is apoth suggesting that SC might be lying town. This statement seems to be trying to inoculate SC against the counter-claim that (I believe) is coming eventually.

[qwints]

I think he's saying that everyone naming their two townies makes it crystal clear to the scum who they should nk.

[qwints]

It's called process of elimination. They kill one of the group of people not listed.

[qwints]

Just as an aside:

Don't think of lynching a townie versus not lynching a townie. Think of it as lynching potential scum and gaining information versus doing nothing.

If we don't lynch, we'll have one dead innocent tomorrow (assuming one unblocked nk) to re-read today in light of. If we do, we'll have two to analyze - without costing us any time. Furthermore, there's the added bonus of all the information we get leading up to the lynch. It's a lot easier for people to be noncommittal if no one is lynched. Lynching scum, on day 1, is just an extra bonus you sometimes get.

[qwints]

Nope, I was explaining that

Lynching scum, on day 1, is just an extra bonus you sometimes get.

[qwints]

@ Ythill, saying that lynching scum is a secondary goal of the D1 lynch is a theory point, not a slip.

Corvuus, why wait to share your suspicions? They'll give us something more to talk about.

I'll join those critical of Apoth's post. Listing all the reasons you were scummy and blaming them on apathy and noobness is not a defense.

[qwints]

Ok....that was a big read. My personal feeling right now is that they are 2 Town players that are going at each other really hard...basically, one doesn't look Scummier than the other. That is just my oponion at this point. That being said, it would be a brilliant move for 2 of the Scum to go at each other like that...risky but, brilliant.

I assume you're talking about Ythill and LlamaFluff. What's your opinion of Apothecary? You rejected his suggestion that SC was town and fake claiming, but you haven't commented since people have posted the case.

[qwints]

If I had to pick Apoth or MM for scum in a void I think I'd go for MM, but now that Apoth has claimed vanilla it's probably best to lynch him.

No way, active lurker >>> claimed vanilla. She is

dying

for a wagon.

I

should

get read up within a couple days now, unless something else goes wrong with my computer.

I find it interesting that you're calling MM an active lurker. I read through his posts and didn't see many posts that screamed lurker.

I'd like you to lay out your case for someone else we should lynch besides Apoth.

[qwints]

I'm still interested to see the rest of Jazz's player notes.

Why have things gotten so quiet?

This is a typical "active lurker" post by the way. He complains about inactivity without making any active contribution.

FOS:MacavityLock

I remain fine with an apoth lynch and have yet to see another convincing case.

[qwints]

It's finals season for a bunch of folks. Don't expect a high level of activity. I'm waiting for:

1) Elmo to follow up on his case against MM.
2) MM's opinion on the Apoth lynch.
3) Anyone to explain why we shouldn't lynch Apoth.

[qwints]

I asked for specific comments.

Wasn't apoth's defense the answer to the questions you asked?

[qwints]

Apoth has 4 votes. It takes 6 to lynch.

I think you're wrong to dismiss the possibility of a MM lynch. Make a case and vote for him if you think he's scum. I'm persuadable, but I don't see the active lurking some have claimed.

[qwints]

Eh, Apoth is my second suspect so he's OK with me honestly.

Given that you now know how many votes Apoth has, why don't you vote for him?

[qwints]

I'm just not convinced by the MM case. True, she does have quite a number of stalling posts or question posts. She also did that 3rd vote = scum thing against MacavityLock which I'm not too sure what to make of. Furthermore, her belief in Primate's "PR" seems laughable in retrospect.

I just got out of a lurk fest where Killer 7 posted once a prod (Mafia 83) so maybe my standards for lurking are a little higher. MM, on the other hand, has pursued a case against Cephrir. I have yet to see scum in narrow in on one player on D1.

[qwints]

Hmm, kind of odd timing to ask for a replacement.

unvote

til we get one.

Elmo, I see some of what you're saying, but I still think that MM pushed the Ceph case. Ceph, what are your thoughts on the replacement?

[qwints]

5 hours after a post promising to catch up we learn that she's asked for a replacement is slightly strange.

[qwints]

"I didn't want to commit"
"I was just lazy"
"no excuse or reason I can give"

Apoth, if you're not going to try and defend your earlier play, you at least have to make it appear you've changed. After you agreed to fight, you haven't made a single point beyond your "defence." That's sufficient to return my vote to you.

vote Apothecary

[qwints]

It's probably a bad idea to hammer given jazz's catching up and MM being replaced.

[qwints]

If my early play really was as disinterested as you say yours was, I would re-read the game and give new analysis. Even if it fails to save you, it gives the town confirmed townie analysis after your lynch. And you just might convince us that you are a pro-town player who simply didn't put any effort into the game earlier.

Here are some sample questions:
1) What is your current opinion of SC's claim?
2) Who should we lynch instead of you?
3) What do you think of the LlamaFluff/Ythill arguments?

[qwints]

I'm taking him at face value. He asked me what I would do in a "situation like this." I took that to mean what I would do if I was town (as he has claimed) and was close to being lynched. I answered the question in the hope of improving his play in the future.

I still think that he's the most likely to be scum and I don't think anything he says as a result of my "coaching" is going to hurt the town given his rapidly impending lynch.

[qwints]

I hope you'll be looking closely at me either way, but Rx as scum is hardly a reason to suspect me more. Meta me. If I was scum and had a buddy getting half as much attention as Rx, chances are we'd have hung him already, and I would have been one of the loudest supporters.

BUT you have been one of the loudest supporters of an Apoch lynch...


Covering contingencies is not scummy. I don't think anyone could claim Apoch is 100% likely to be scum. The things I've said to help him if he's town are designed to cover the chance that he is town/help him play better in the future.

The points I've asked apoc to address are designed to help us regardless of whether he's town or scum.

[qwints]

confirm vote: Apoth

We've given Apoth every chance to redeem himself. My read is that he's afraid to give us anything more because he's afraid of outing his scum buddies. At this point we've gotten all we can out of him before the lynch.

[qwints]

The day is winding down and it seems as if Rx is going to be the lynch no matter what is said. I'm not entirely against this, since I've seen a fair amount of evidence against him, but I still think qwints is the better play.

Again I ask, if you are one of those who suspect SC is lying scum, why let Rx hang when SC is voting for him and pushing for his lynch?

Because you don't lynch a claimed doc on D1 w/o a damn good reason. Also, having a scum member on your wagon is not proof that you're town

...

Qwints is my PE#1 due to tells dropped across the replacement which is usually a very good indicator of a role's alignment.

I've already addressed this. I played to cover the contingency that Apoth is town because I don't know for sure that he is scum

Do you feel it will hurt the town to let this lynch happen at deadline? If yes, how? If not, why are you pushing? Also, please give any opinions you have about Llama's latest post (#654).

1. No, waiting two days won't hurt the town.
2. n/a
3. I'm just indicating that I am now more sure that Apoth is scum. The purpose is to make the case that he is the best target given the other cases (including one against me) that people are pushing.
4. I don't see much in Llama's post to reply to. It seems non-committal and maybe a little confused.

[qwints]

It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch. Maybe the doc was acting scummy to avoid being a nk target. Maybe he was just being an idiot. Or maybe SC is scum. It's just not worth it to lynch him on D1. If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum.

[qwints]

unvote, vote: StrangerCoug

You sound pretty confident. I agree that SC has acted quite scummy.

[qwints]

That's 3 for SC and 3 for apoth.

[qwints]

Ythill, you don't seem to be consistent. I thought you said that my "slips" implying that I "knew" apoth was why you thought I was scum. Doesn't this mean that if you think I'm scum, you think apoth is town?

On the SC lynch, I've thought SC was scummy since I've replaced in. Given the actions of others, I am now fairly certain of that fact. I will note that we need at least four votes to lynch at deadline and that a tie means no lynch. Those not voting (apoth and jazz) need to justify why they think we should no lynch if they want to not vote. I also want to hear from Elmo on if he's sticking with OGML at this point.

[qwints]

woot! One scum down.

Apoc, it's time for you to start participating. Ythill, you've got some explaining to do. Props to OGML for the lynch.

[qwints]

He self-hammered. He's scum.

[qwints]

Well, that's bizarre. I could go into my WIFOM thought process about it, but I won't.

It's hard to read a lot into SC because he was just all over the place. There's certainly nothing preventing OGML from being his buddy so I'll go with my thought from yesterday.

Vote: OGML

FOS: Cephrir

. Starting a wagon at deadline against a scum-power role is certainly suggestive of someone being town. Sure, he might have been trying to establish town credentials because he thought the lynch wouldn't happen, but I don't think you can look at the last part of yesterday and say "this makes OGML likely to be scum."

I am equally confused about last nights kill, though. I don't think we can figure out anything from it now, but it will definitely be something to keep in mind as we learn more.

[qwints]

vote: Cephrir

You're not helpful.

[qwints]

happy scumday cephrir.

Why'd you push the ogml case so hard if you didn't find his actions suspicious? MM's only crime was lurking.

[qwints]

I'll be V/LA for the next week

[qwints]

Cephrir

1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction
2) Pulled an about face on Primate
3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration


See his post that before the SC claim

That SC wagon looks better every minute. Actually,

Vote: SC

. His most recent few posts have really sealed it for me, and now he's backing off Ythill which seems to me like a total cop-out to the accusation of his rapidly changing suspicions (which, incidentally, is not a bad tell IMO). Note that this is a L-1 vote.

He's finally willing to do some work when it will succeed in confirming him town

See also his post asking permission to hammer Apoth:

I went away this weekend and nothing happened. Yay, I guess.

Is that L-1? I'm willing to hammer, I'm done with both Apoth and this day.

Maybe a null tell, but it strikes me as a little scummy to not give reasons for an Apoth lynch.

His refusal to defend and unvote of OGML are further evidence for me.

[qwints]

I don't recall ever thinking [Primate] was scum. Obnoxious but never lynchworthy.

Let's look at the record.

@Primate voters: even if Primate is faking a PR, I don't think it's scummy. Antitown, perhaps, but not scummy. And I'm far from positive that he's making it up anyway.

followed by

Unvote, Vote: Primate

because stop.

AND

If you're giving up, I will as well. I was hoping if we got enough votes on Primate he would give it up, but if the wagon's greatest supporter is going to jump ship it'll never work.

Unvote

.

You were putting pressure on Primate and suddenly backed off.

[qwints]

Elmo - on the first two points - that sort of behaviour demonstrates a hidden agenda behind his play. He was playing in a way designed to set up tension in the town instead of moving the game ahead.

On the third point see this post:

If you've read this thread then you saw a case against MM.

[qwints]

checking in/bump

[qwints]

Cephrir, I assume the "bizarre" play you refer to is my giving reasons that you disagreed with. Sure I could be wrong, but I'm increasingly sure that you're scum. One more piece of evidence is your referral to Ythill's death. You've said that the only possible explanations for that are 1) I am scum or 2) Scum is trying to frame me. Now you're saying that ythill's death proves that he was correct about atlas. Even though Ythill changed his position on Atlas before I subbed in. Furthermore, speculating about motives for nightkills at this point in the game is pure WIFOM.

Obviously neither OGML nor I are confirmed town, but Ceph is still the most likely scum.

[qwints]

Elmo, if you think I'm scum, then press your case. That goes for anyone who thinks someone besides Ceph is scum. We're not going to get a lot more out of discussing Ceph without producing some more content.

[qwints]

Care to post some of that process? Hate to see all your work lost if you're night killed.

Non-voters need to do something besides say that they're not sure that ceph is scum. A lack of an alternative lynch-target really slows the game down.

[qwints]

I'll have more time later this weekend, but for now I will simply note that my comment about one scum being down came after SC self-hammered.

[qwints]

I already laid out my problems with Ceph:

Cephrir

1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction
2) Pulled an about face on Primate
3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration


See his post that before the SC claim

That SC wagon looks better every minute. Actually,

Vote: SC

. His most recent few posts have really sealed it for me, and now he's backing off Ythill which seems to me like a total cop-out to the accusation of his rapidly changing suspicions (which, incidentally, is not a bad tell IMO). Note that this is a L-1 vote.

He's finally willing to do some work when it will succeed in confirming him town

See also his post asking permission to hammer Apoth:

I went away this weekend and nothing happened. Yay, I guess.

Is that L-1? I'm willing to hammer, I'm done with both Apoth and this day.

Maybe a null tell, but it strikes me as a little scummy to not give reasons for an Apoth lynch.

His refusal to defend and unvote of OGML are further evidence for me.

Cephrir, I assume the "bizarre" play you refer to is my giving reasons that you disagreed with. Sure I could be wrong, but I'm increasingly sure that you're scum. One more piece of evidence is your referral to Ythill's death. You've said that the only possible explanations for that are 1) I am scum or 2) Scum is trying to frame me. Now you're saying that ythill's death proves that he was correct about atlas. Even though Ythill changed his position on Atlas before I subbed in. Furthermore, speculating about motives for nightkills at this point in the game is pure WIFOM.

Obviously neither OGML nor I are confirmed town, but Ceph is still the most likely scum.[/quote
]There was also his reaction to pressure which I saw as anti-town.

Obviously, I was wrong about Ceph. I don't see a lot to be gained evaluating the reasons themselves (hindsight is 20/20), but I certainly was giving reasons. Not to mention the fact that four other players ( 1 confirmed town) agreed with me.

Onto today. I really don't like Apoth asking the obvious to start the day. If you're going to post, contribute at least a little.

vote: Apoth

[qwints]

active lurking = posting without contributing = scum.

The fact that you've been so quiet recently is very suspicious. Maybe you killed ythill to throw suspicion on me, bringing it up is introducing WIFOM and not helpful.

I note that I am L - 1 and will claim if asked by anyone not currently voting for me.

[qwints]

But you apparently have time to watch Battlestar Gallactica...

11 posts in a month on Days 2 and 3 after 53 posts in 2 months on D1. Furthermore, some of your new posts are short and contentless. That's a clear drop in activity.

Combine that with an OMGUS vote, unnecessary hostility and nk speculation and you're looking pretty scummy to me.

On another point, I was already voting for you before 656. You had made several posts without mounting a further defense.

Last, I claimed that the scum (i.e. you) could have killed someone (i.e. Ythill) to put pressure on those Ythill attacked (i.e. me and LlamaFluff.) I said that it was impossible to gain meaning from the kill because it was a WIFOM situation. Therefore, bringing it up was unhelpful. Why was this reasoning "so flawed" that I am "beyond all hope."

[qwints]

Anybody want to comment on the Apoth case?

[qwints]

I am not convinced of the case on qwints, so I will not be hammering him at this time.

I repeat that I will role claim if and only if I am asked to by a person not now voting for me. Hammering without asking = scum.

[qwints]

As corvuus has requested;

I'm the doc. I protected ogml night one and jazz night two. This was why I was so quick to jump on the SC wagon.

[qwints]

I protected OGML night one because he had led the SC lynch. He also had demonstrated an ability to persuade the town. After SC flipped scum, he wasn't going to be a top suspect for a while and might have attracted a nk as someone who looked like the doc.

I protected Jazz night two because of the in-depth analysis she produced and the risk of not getting to hear all of her results. Today's further delays have begun to worry me some. Jazz was also labeled as likely town by several players on day 2. OGML, on the other hand, had begun to attract some negative attention.

As for apothecary: On day 1, I thought he was inexperienced scum getting bussed by SC. I thought it was likely that SC would try to 'confirm' himself by being on a scum wagon. So in answer to:

The thing is, you, as 'real doc' should know that SC is lying and thus scum and that even if SC is the 'worst scum' in the entire universe, would he 100% bus his scumpartner to that extent?

is an unequivocal yes.

[qwints]

Was this negative attention from anyone other than Ceph?

So why protect someone who posts potentially useful stuff rarely over an active player who was probably our most confirmed at the time?

If Ceph had flipped scum, would you have switched off of protecting OGML?

1) You and LF made some negative comments earlier in the day that you then backed off. It was mostly Ceph's case.

2) OGML was fairly inactive on the last part of D2. I thought Jazz's analysis was very solid. It was a judgment call mostly motivated by Ceph flipping town.

3) Hell no. If Ceph had flipped scum, OGML would have been protected the rest of the game.

[qwints]

Why did Ceph flipping town affect your protect? I really don't understand the logic behind that.

OGML pushed hard for Ceph's lynch and Ceph laid out a case against him. Ceph flipping town made OGML less likely to be town. Next there was OGML's flippant posts towards the end of day 2.

And finally, the last post on day 2:

Like it wasn't already obvious how town Jazz is or something.

Always good to have more information from the obv-towns

vote cephrir

[qwints]

Here's what I said about SC's doc claim.

Here are my initial impressions based on a quick read through.

1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones. On the other hand, we can't lynch a claimed doc without a counterclaim on d1 so the case against SC should be tabled for now.

It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch. Maybe the doc was acting scummy to avoid being a nk target. Maybe he was just being an idiot. Or maybe SC is scum. It's just not worth it to lynch him on D1. If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum.

and then of course I quickly hopped on the SC bandwagon as soon as OGML started it.

My thinking was that it would be too obvious if I pushed for a SC lynch on my own post-claim, but I was willing to jump on the first wagon that came along. I did not intentionally breadcrumb and risk scum deducing I was doc, but you should find my play consistent with my being a cautious doctor.

[qwints]

I said that I would claim as soon as someone not voting for me asked for a claim after I was at L-1. You weren't part of the group that put me at L-1 and asked for a claim, so I claimed.

[qwints]

Here's my evaluation of ML:

He's put pressure on players a couple of times and backed off without a solid explanation.

See

Corvuus Day 1: 2 FOS's and a strong criticism followed by a declaration that he is just an aggessive townie.

MM: Day 1 "Top of my scum list" completely dropped after Apoc started acting ultra scummy. OGML's replacement and non-scummy behavior led to a (correct) townie declaration.

Apoth: "My Apoth suspicions, which were stronger than my MM suspicions, from day 1 remain." No votes post Day 1, though ML has constantly pressured him.

I also note that ML had some interactions with SC on day 1, including a call for him to role claim. My read is that if ML is scum, corvuus or apoc is his buddy. ML reads as quite cautious, however, and I'm not seeing any strong signs of his being scum.

********************************************************************

I'm kind of suspicious of corvuus right now, but that's mostly just OMGUS. I plan on re-reading his posts next. Right now, I continue to think that Apoc is the most likely scum - scummy behavior day 1 followed by an almost complete lack of content. He definitely needs get some material in before his V/LA.

So that leaves LF, Jazz and Elmo. The former two I've seen no real reason to be suspicious of. The latter has been pretty silent. Given that he hasn't posted for a week:

Mod, could you prod Elmo?

(If you haven't done so already.)

[qwints]

Obviously you misunderstood my post.

I was evaluating ML's posts because he has a vote on him. The FOS's I referred to were only in the context of ML's posts. My point was that ML has put pressure on players and then moved on without much of an explanation for moving on. Thus, my feeling was that he would be scum with them if he actually were scum. But, overall, I didn't think he was scum.

Furthermore, I wasn't attacking you at the moment. I was merely saying that I was suspicious of you but that it was due to your attacks on me. I'm going to re-read your posts to see if there was a solid case against you.

Either I wasn't clear or you're deliberately misunderstanding me. Was it really that confusing?

[qwints]

As to this point:

If you were a real doc, you (at least in my opinion) would be happy to explain your claim, details, etc. and why would there by OMGUS at all? Does any real doc expect 'everyone' to believe him? Any real doc worth his salt would go after 'real scum' and not a perceived OMGUS of a townie not believing him.

I believe I have tried to explain my claim quite thoroughly and would be happy to answer any more questions.

I protected OGML night one because he had led the SC lynch. He also had demonstrated an ability to persuade the town. After SC flipped scum, he wasn't going to be a top suspect for a while and might have attracted a nk as someone who looked like the doc.

I protected Jazz night two because of the in-depth analysis she produced and the risk of not getting to hear all of her results. Today's further delays have begun to worry me some. Jazz was also labeled as likely town by several players on day 2. OGML, on the other hand, had begun to attract some negative attention.

As for apothecary: On day 1, I thought he was inexperienced scum getting bussed by SC. I thought it was likely that SC would try to 'confirm' himself by being on a scum wagon. So in answer to:

The thing is, you, as 'real doc' should know that SC is lying and thus scum and that even if SC is the 'worst scum' in the entire universe, would he 100% bus his scumpartner to that extent?

is an unequivocal yes.

Was this negative attention from anyone other than Ceph?

So why protect someone who posts potentially useful stuff rarely over an active player who was probably our most confirmed at the time?

If Ceph had flipped scum, would you have switched off of protecting OGML?

1) You and LF made some negative comments earlier in the day that you then backed off. It was mostly Ceph's case.

2) OGML was fairly inactive on the last part of D2. I thought Jazz's analysis was very solid. It was a judgment call mostly motivated by Ceph flipping town.

3) Hell no. If Ceph had flipped scum, OGML would have been protected the rest of the game.

Here's what I said about SC's doc claim.

Here are my initial impressions based on a quick read through.

1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones. On the other hand, we can't lynch a claimed doc without a counterclaim on d1 so the case against SC should be tabled for now.

It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch. Maybe the doc was acting scummy to avoid being a nk target. Maybe he was just being an idiot. Or maybe SC is scum. It's just not worth it to lynch him on D1. If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum.

and then of course I quickly hopped on the SC bandwagon as soon as OGML started it.

My thinking was that it would be too obvious if I pushed for a SC lynch on my own post-claim, but I was willing to jump on the first wagon that came along. I did not intentionally breadcrumb and risk scum deducing I was doc, but you should find my play consistent with my being a cautious doctor.

[qwints]

I'm not liking how qwints is eqauting "Not information" with "someone being scummy". No I'm not refering to the point you made about me acting scummy. It's your attitude when dealing with people who post sparsely.

In all seriousness, WTF do you mean by this? I really don't know what I've said that you're referring to. As to the point itself, active lurking is scummy. If anything, I (among others) am probably not putting enough pressure on people who have gone silent.

I don't like the reasoning that bussing a partner would win over people to think you are town. It's risky, and it would rely on the any surviving scum to not slip up, and screw up their chances of victory. And no-one seemed to respond favourably to SC anyway.

Everyone now alive thought that OGML was less likely to be scum because he bussed SC, right? Arguing that you are town because a known scum attacked you is just plain dumb. Scum attack other scum ALL THE TIME.

I'll admit that SC bussing you might not have been in the best interests of the scum at the time, and I'll listen to an argument that says this makes you more likely to be town. But, to claim that scum don't bus other scum to seem town is empirically false.

I'm inclined to agree with Corvuus on you. I don't like your claim and , as I said, I don't like your attitiude. So:

Vote: qwints

.

Opportunistic much? Here's what you've said about my claim up to now:

I'm not entirely sure of qwints' claim. But I don't want to mislynch a possible doctor.
Jazz, who do you think is scum?

I don't know who to suspect at this moment, aside from qwints. But he's claimed at the moment, so we can't touch him.

I'll have to

Unvote

. We pushed a little close when we lynched SC, and I don't want to lynch you and find out that you're the real deal.

You've given no explanation as to why you are now willing to disregard my claim. Why don't you like my claim and why are you now willing to risk lynching a doctor?

[qwints]

Damn, I had forgotten about the huge walls of text on Day 1 between Corvuus and SC. I find it very unlikely that two scum would make themselves the center of attention so early. I mean you might do that to try and create a false dilemma where lynching one clears the other, but it would be a strategy I've never seen used before.

Despite the fact that I don't like the way Corvuus is attacking me, I have to say he's more than likely pro-town.

Apoth's argument with SC came much later in the day and was much more one-sided, so I don't think it clears him. Time to re-evaluate those I thought were town.

[qwints]

When you say that my attitude set me against you, what I read is that you are voting because I attacked you. Could you explain why I have this wrong?

Second, you said you didn't like me equating sparse posting with scuminess. I see this as putting pressure on lurkers and encouraging contributions. Could you explain why we shouldn't try to get people to produce content?


Third, I assume you saying that you are opportunistic means that you'd rather have me lynched than you. Are you attacking me because
A) I am the most likely to get lynched quickly.
B) You think you will be lynched if I am not.
C) You think I am the scummiest player.
D) Another reason.
?

On another note, I will point out that SC might have thought he could explain staying alive by the existence of a mafia RB. Given that he was one, he certainly would be aware of the possibility. That might have made him willing to bus a partner to stay in the game. He had to know, however, that a counterclaim would take him down even if the doc was mislynched first. 2 scum for a mislynch of the doc does seem quite risky.

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that apoth is town despite his play, I am left with no viable targets. The players whose play raises my suspicion have strong situational arguments for being town. The ones who I have thought to be townie, on the other hand, lack solid arguments.

Looking back at day 1, I think the key to discovering scum lies in SC's lynch. More re-reading is called for and I'll have more tomorrow.

[qwints]

today is last day of my ASCB conference in SF so I am still V/LA to a degree but I will definitely be able to pick up speed and post by tomorrow.

However, I did come to check in (one of my other games was supposed to be at deadline for 17th) and my current impression is this:

SC I feel should die but I was willing to wait until a different day (tomorrow). I'd prefer SC to at least say something before anyone lynches him tho.

My reasoning being: If SC *is* doc, scum will NK him and we have chance of lynching scum somewhere else. If SC isn't doc but town, he will get NK'ed giving us more time. If he is scum (and doesn't die all the way until lylo) then as long as we get the other scum, it is basically game.

So while i dislike his play style and everything SC does/did, I think trying to lynch a different scum/scummy player is 'better' than the 'easy' lynch of SC. SC's alignment isn't certain to me so I think time will tell.

.... then again, lynching SC now (and if he is scum) helps for scumbuddy analysis and no mislynch.

Anyways, that is my quick thought before heading out for breakfast.

Corvuus

One question before I go to bed. Corvuus, why have you changed your tune on lynching doctors since 1? (I realize you said that you were willing to lynch a second claimed doc since we already had lynched one, but I want you to explain the reasoning behind that.)

[qwints]

Could you sum up the ML case as it currently stands? I'm honestly didn't see it when I read his posts. You claimed that he didn't interact with SC, but he did in several posts.

[qwints]

if we don't lynch you today, do you think you will live through tonight?

I fully expect I will be nk'd tonight.

I have not played a doctor before, but I had no intention of breadcrumbing. I would have counterclaimed eventually, but doing so on day 1 rewards scum who are willing to trade one mafia member for the doctor.

[qwints]

Yeah, new content!

ML, you're right. I missed your vote when going through your posts in iso (probably because it was at the end of a line.) I did note that you have consistently put pressure on apoth. I also wrote that OGML's behavior led to you ceasing to suspect him. I really don't see you as scum.

Now, for the questions I was asked (let me know if I missed any):

1. Can you explain posts #3, 29, 30 and 32?

note 2 + 3 was a double post.

#3: I was trying to establish that I thought SC was likely to be scum. I didn't, however, want to push for a lynch lest I look scummy or out myself as the doc.

#29: " If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum." is the main point of what I'm trying to say. The first part was me trying to appear unsure about SC's claim. I didn't think leaving SC-scum alive would hurt the town too much.

#30: OGML's vote gave me cover to jump on SC's wagon I was trying to imply that I thought OGML was the doc and planning on protecting him that night (which I did).

#32: The first part was a defense against YThill attacking me. The second part was pushing for a SC lynch and again implying that I thought OGML was the doc. Naming particular players who weren't voting for the main wagons and raising the threat of a no lynch was designed to lead to a SC lynch.

2. Why did you think Apoth was scum?

A) He suggested a no lynch.
B) He suggested SC might be fake-claiming as town.
C) He gave up on Day 1 despite being given opportunities to rehabilitate himself

3. Why didn't you do more to get SC lynched?

I believed that advocating a lynch of a claimed doc on day 1 would either look scummy or like the real doctor. Either way that it came off would be bad for me. I did say that "I really don't like the claim" (2) and that "the counter-claim [is] (I believe) coming eventually" (6). Once I had the cover to go after SC, I pushed for a lynch (30).

4. Can you explain post #6?

First, I don't intentionally breadcrumb. I did not choose the word inoculate as a breadcrumb. Second, it was designed to suggest that SC would be lynched eventually and indicate that I thought (though I really knew) that he was lying.

5. Why did you post so strongly against lynching a claimed doc?
To fit in. In other games I have played, I have been strongly against lynching claimed power roles on day 1. I agree with YThill's theory points against the lynch. I was doing my best to appear that I didn't already know that SC was scum.

6. Why did you jump on SC's wagon so quickly?
OGML's vote allowed me to push for a SC lynch without outing myself as the doc. I tried to imply that I thought he was the doc, intending to protect him.

7. Why didn't you protect OGML on night 2?
A) He pushed extremely hard for the lynch of a townie.
B) His posts at the end of the day saying that he didn't know why the day wasn't already over.
C) Jazz being described as pro-town by LF and others.

Basically I wasn't 100% sure OGML was town after Ceph flipped town. Given MM's somewhat scummy play, I thought OGML might have come in and bussed the probably-doomed SC in order to establish himself as obv-town. I looked for a player that seemed to be consensus town and found Jazz.

[qwints]

Apoth, could you please remember to address my questions from 923 in your next post?''

Jazz, are ML and I the only players you find suspicious right now?

[qwints]

With the deadline in mind, I'm going to

unvote, vote macavitylock

.

I still don't see his posts as particularly scummy, but I'm at a loss for who to target. Given the fact that he seems to be the only viable lynch besides myself, I have no choice but to vote for him.

I still think apoth's posts are incredibly scummy, but there isn't enough support for an apoth lynch. I'd also consider a LF wagon if there was sufficient support.

To those still voting for me, please consider that the vote assumes either that there is no doc or that someone else is the doc. I know I am the doc, but you should be able to see that not having a doc is unlikely given the existence of a mafia RB and the two relatively weak town power roles so far revealed.

[qwints]

"Well, I don't think he's scummy, but I feel like being lazy and finding the easiest alternate bandwagon, given other peoples' suspicions." This is OMGUS, but I think it's well-deserved.

Vote: qwintz

.

I strongly reject your notion that I've been lazy, but I'm honestly not seeing anyone standing out as scummy. You've probably got a 1 in 3 chance of being scum while I know I'm town. The deadline is Saturday and I've got to advocate for a wagon that has a chance of succeeding.

[qwints]

Here are the two biggest posts from LF on his case against ML.

LF's post 39 (781) on Day 2

LF, why do you think Macavity's scum(my)? What's your opinion of Atlas - not the role i.e. Qwints, the posts made by the player Atlas previously? Also.. why llama fluff?

ML comes off as scummy mostly due to two things, firstly the way he played the SC wagon during D1. I dont think was ever actually a part of the wagon vote wise, but there were comments (like his 33) that make me think otherwise. When the SC wagon came to a head near the end of the day, he stayed off it and continued to push the Apoc wagon which was the only other viable one. It seems like he made his mark on the SC wagon but chose not to cash in it.

Second would be the early push for Apoc today. I really dont see Apoc flipping scum after the strength that SC pushed for that lynch when there was a town wagon available in Ythill, and the MM wagon which both seemed to hold water. Also most of the posts from ML yesterday seemed to suggest a SC-MM pairing more then anything else, so trading MM for Apoc today when SC was proven scum looks wierd.

Rest is just about process of elimination. I think OGML and Apoc are def town. Jazz, qwints and you are pretty close based on actions and just this gut read I have from Jazz. Corv has gone back and forth for me, D1 he looked really town, D2 I got a few warning flags up. Makes me want to look into closer but I really havent had the time to put him under the magnifine glass. Basically just leaves Ceph and if that doesnt end the game, ML. By the way if Ceph is last scum I am going to be pissed I waited for qwints.
.

tldr:

1. ML attacked SC early on, but didn't join the deadline wagon.
2. ML attacked apoth early on day 2.
3. Process of elimination

Here's the list of players who lynched SC : OhGodMyLife, Qwints, LLamaFluff, Cephrir, Elmo, StrangerCoug.


LF's post 51 on Day 3

Vote ML

More or less for the reasons in 781 which I know he replied to, but I still like the vote. Will respond to his response later as im running behind in a few other games right now too.

My response is "Please give me more arguments to refute." I already answered your 781 questions, and if you have more, let me know.

Still swamped with classes right now, near the end of the week it always gets worse too so I wont be able to get up everything I have, but here is most.

ML comes off as scummy mostly due to two things, firstly the way he played the SC wagon during D1. I dont think was ever actually a part of the wagon vote wise, but there were comments (like his 33) that make me think otherwise. When the SC wagon came to a head near the end of the day, he stayed off it and continued to push the Apoc wagon which was the only other viable one. It seems like he made his mark on the SC wagon but chose not to cash in it.

You're correct that I was never on the SC wagon vote-wise. Early in the day, I had some suspicions, but he was never at the top of my list. Over the course of page 14, my suspicions spiked due to his voting and subsequent unvoting of Ythill. I also did not like 337 at all. He was then at L-1, so being on his wagon with a vote would have meant a hammer, which I was not willing to do at that point. He then claimed doc, and I backed off like everybody else did.

This I still think is one of the bigger points against you. Your post 33 (11/20) was the first post since your 19 (11/12) which even mentioned SC in some suspicious light. Back in your 19 the extent of what was said even was

SC, I mentioned early on as having suspicions of. He has not done anything to remove those suspicions. Nothing new to add...
...MiteyMouse, you [Corv], and SC are my top targets right now. I'm still waiting for Primate to say anything.

This time before that was WAY back in his fourth post, which was when we were leaving the random stage

In fact, I think that people who don't see that are jumping on the easier Ceph-bandwagon. The first semi-suspicious thing that happens in this game, and you don't want to reason it through? Also, I'm not following on Gorillaz-scum at all. So, yeah, I'm going to

unvote

him.

FoS: StrangerCoug and MiteyMouse

. In fact,

Vote: MiteyMouse

. StrangerCoug at least is saying original things. MM is just following the trail SC is blazing.

---

This just seems like a suspicion that was just there and never acted on. He called SC scummy in the early game and perpetually ignored him for the rest of the game, although SC always was a top suspect when asked by people. Smells like a fake-suspicion to me more then anything else. Going from suspect but never mentioned to "I will hammer if needed" in nothing flat... just really sits poorly with me.

Is the qwints case anything outside of calling SC scum before the flip?

I'll note that ML answered these points in detail after they were raised.

Now look at post 927, LF's summary of the case on ML

He intereacted to the extent where he called him scummy early in the game, then really backed off and didnt mention him for most of the game after that. Later in the game when SC became a wagon again, he hopped back on which just reads like a weak bussing move to me more then anything else.

I dont see much of a case on anyone else really, just have had a really hard time getting into this game so not a whole lot has progressed past gut scum or town reads. So part interactions, part the Apoc vote (who I still say is likely town) and part just PoE.

Note that he says that ML was on the SC wagon when he wasn't. He also says he has had a hard time getting into the game despite his huge walls of text on day 1 against YThill. I also don't think he has contributed much new content in the past couple weeks (though he did mention something about midterms).

Right now I think the thing to do is go back and re-read day 1 and see if there was any scummy motivation for the attack on YThill. I get a very town off of LF until the end of day 2, then his shorter posts seem like they could be scummy.

On the other hand, I need to review what exactly ML did in response to the second SC wagon. Right now, I think that LF might have a slightly higher chance of being scum. I'm in a bind however, because there aren't sufficient votes for a LF lynch unless corvuus or jazz is willing to vote for LF.

But since there is still a bit of time before deadline,

unvote, vote Llama Fluff

as he has been slightly scummier than ML.

[qwints]

Apoth, I have made very clear that I'm not sure who is scum, but there is a deadline breathing down my neck. I jumped onto ML (as I said) because a deadline is approaching and ML appeared to be the only alternative. I voted for LF because a re-read had a few scummy indicators - namely portraying himself as disinterested in the game despite fairly detailed cases he had laid out and misstating that ML had been on the SC wagon. Combine that with his short and fairly unhelpful posts today and I think he may have the highest chance of being scum.

Right now, I'm looking at lynching LF or ML. I think Apoth is playing very scummy, but SC's bussing is strong evidence that he is town.

BTW, where the hell is Jazz? She'd said she have more on Monday, but hasn't posted since she said that on Sunday. There have been a few times she's promised content that's been a while in coming, and it's getting pretty frustrating.

[qwints]

I support a deadline extension. I'm going to be away from the computer from 9 to 5 tomorrow (US central time) and I wouldn't want to miss the end of the day.

I would like LF to explain why he's added so little content after my claim today. A defense against Elmo's points would also be useful.

I don't like apoth's phrase that "his vote is vindicated." That suggests to me that he didn't feel like he had a good reason for his vote when he first made it, that it was "opportunistic."

ML, could you explain who your top suspects are at the moment and why? I understand that you've voted me for voting for the most likely alternative lynch when I didn't think you were that much more likely than anyone else to be scum. You also seem to have expressed suspicion of LF and Jazz.

[qwints]

Mind clarifying how this:

Well for the whole qeints doctor claim, wow. I thoguth that a doctor claim was a stupid one that would get a really quick lynch bur for some reason people have proved me wrong there. But anyways..

is consistent with this:

I really dont think scum would be ballsy enough to claim the same thing that their scum buddy who already got killed would simply given that it just seems suicidal so the claim looks good [/WIFOM]

I dont like how qwints has played if he is a doctor, especially the protect of Jazz (who by far being the worse protection) who just seemed less likely to be NKed then a few others. The only reason I could of seen would of needed to be in someone elses shoes that earlier were hard to get in.

I just cant ignore the ammount of WIFOM behind scum claiming the same role and not just countering each other. While its an odd claim, I do buy it. I may not like the way he chooses to play (or even his N2 target), but there are others I would rather see lynched before him.
.

and this:

Wait... why are we thinking of lynching a doctor claim again?

In vino veritas, eh?

[qwints]

ML, just because you were gone when the SC lynch happened doesn't mean that you can ignore my involvement. I clearly helped press for a SC lynch at the end of day 1. I also made several comments suggesting that I didn't believe his claim. I already explained that the reason I didn't do more was to avoid attracting scum's attention.

[qwints]

Corvuus has been using PoE to mean process of elimination.

[qwints]

LF, what makes you think that there are two killing factions? - Is it just SC talking about there being two scum?

[qwints]

I need to re-read, but corvuus is coming off a lot better than ML to me right now.

LF - do you still see ML-Corv as scum buddies?

I don't like Jazz's relatively long post to explain her activity without saying something about the game especially when she says she's reading the game. That tends to be a pet peeve of mine. She has, however, continually provided in-depth analysis.

ML - I don't think that your case on apoth is particularly clear. Could you sum it up for me? I think you're referring to your claims that he's been inconsistent and has lurked.

[qwints]

My limited experience with mini-normals suggests that three is the norm. Given the fact that we have at least 3 power roles and no sk, I would expect there to be three.

[qwints]

I'm just posting to note that I was gone for the last three days - the hotel I was at didn't have free internet. I'll re-read as soon as I get the chance and post.

[qwints]

I find it rather bizarre that my vote on SC makes me seem like obv_scum. Without my action, a SC lynch is significantly less likely. YThill was dead set against lynching SC, which is why he thought I was scum. I knew SC was scum and I helped lynch him without outing myself as doc. My earlier claims about not wanting to lynch the claimed doc were designed so that scum would not think I was the doc.

LF's speculation that I have blocked two kills is curious. That seems quite unlikely, and it could mean that LF knows something we don't.

I don't like illumina characterizing my doc claim as silly, I was clearly the most likely to be lynched and had a majority that had me as their chief suspect.

Given the situation, I want a mass claim. There are almost certainly no other power roles, and the efforts to lynch me need to be shown for what they are. A doc should have counterclaimed by this point.

I want LF to go first.

[qwints]

Corvuus, what the fuck!?!

How does massclaiming "help" you or your position?

This may be the most stupid question I've ever seen asked.
1) I am doc
2) The odds of there being >1 doc are negligible
3) Mass claim will either confirm me town or id a false counter-claimer as scum.

Mass claiming will demonstrate that there is no other doc. I'm not role fishing because there are no roles to fish. Deadline is coming and I want to prove my innocence. Voting for me is absolutely idiotic if you don't have an alternative doc in mind or believe that there is no doc.

Furthermore, what are you smoking that leads you from this statement

"the part that has me leaning on Qwints doc claim being real"

to voting me.

There is no possible way you should be voting a town power role that you find even somewhat credible at this point. EVEN IF you're think I could be scum, you can always wait to tomorrow. Scum take a significant risk of my confirming myself by a successful protect if they leave me alive.

Corvuus just rocketed to the top of my scum list.

P.S.
I apologize for the abrasiveness of this e-mail, but I really think that lynching me today seriously harms the town's chances.

[qwints]

[quote="Corvuus"
At the very least, your wording sucks. You say "a massclaim....blah blah. a doctor would have claimed by now". So you are telling me that your phrasing and wording is based on scum trying to counterclaim you (why?) and then you defeating their counterclaim because your doc claim is so much better and your wording is in preparation for a scum counterclaiming you as doc? (why?)
[/quote]

If scum counterclaim, then they die tomorrow. So a counterclaim means that we either
1) Trade a doc for scum
or
2) Prove I am doc.

[qwints]

If you knew SC was an impostor, why would you ever support a Rx lynch at that point? Your reason for it (as Corvuus and I have pointed out) doesn't add up. SC bussing a scum Rx at that point doesn't make any sense from a scum perspective.

1. RX was legitimately scummy.
2. Busing is always possible. Look at what actually has happened, SC's attack made RX fairly immune.

[qwints]

I WAS THE FUCKING DOCTOR, YOU RETARDS!

Ok, now that's off my chest. Here's my analysis that will shortly be confirmed as coming from a trustworthy source.

1. LF is a serial killer. As I had begun to suspect, he knew more about the set up than he revealed. He was the only one who has seriously suggested multiple night kills. Kill him soon.

2. Therefore I kicked ass as doctor, stopping two night kills. My play was just too amazing for you certain players to recognize.

3. I am quite sure that all of the remaining scum are on my wagon. It's tough to believe that many townies were stupid. I am most suspicious of ML.

[qwints]

One last thing, I urge everyone to analyze Corvuus's move to attack me - I really don't think his reasoning matched his action.

If I had to guess right now, Illumina and/or Corvuus are scum while LF is SK.

[qwints]

WOW, this game was incredibly frustrating.

1. How the hell did town allow a no-lynch?
2. Corvuus, why was my asking for a mass claim a scum tell?
3. How was LF not the insta-lynch? The lack of a kill on Night 3 proved no SK.

My final opinion is that town's inactivity - especially elmo and apoth/illumina lost the game.

[qwints]

Also, Corvuus WTF was with the sk claim!?!?

[qwints]

I honestly thought OGML's role behind the ceph lynch made him less towny. I did protect him night one.

[qwints]

I realized the Jazz protect was a mistake when I saw OGML had been killed, but I wasn't entirely sure that OGML was town. No offense taken, elmo.

LF, congrats on confusing the heck out of me with the sk and survivor stuff. You took two very unlikely claims and threw a wrench in the town's otherwise easy choice to lynch you.