Mini 712 - Capital of the World! - (Game over!)
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Porkens
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Very true. So...crickets? F that.I'm pretty sure FoSing evryone in the game isn't really a viable strategy Wink.
I'm going to go ahead andunvotefor the time being
That vote is serious, I don't think self-voting is protown in the random stage, but only semi-serious because of how infantile the game is.
But, there's another interesting post in the game so far that I'd like to give my attention at the moment.
*cracks knucks*
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Looking at the game so far, one post, of course stands out from the rest: Post 29
29 stands out, naturally, because of it's context; that is, directly below Post 28. And a bit further below Post 19
In Post 29, MafiaPlayer casts a "Random" vote for another player; super random dude. This, in and of itself, is nothing to cause alarm. However, if we take a closer look at Post 28, we find that only two hours and thirteen minutes earlier, another player, PerArdua, had cast an OMGUS vote against the same lynch candidate; super random dude. Things become even more ominous when we travel further back in time to see that Post 19alsopicks super random dude for the lynch.
Suddenly, Post 29 looks a little more intentional than it's author might intend (or DOES he?).
I hypothesize that MafiaPlayer's so called "Random" vote on super random dude is, in fact,not random at all. Instead, I submit to you that this vote is not only pre-meditated, but also the direct result of a conscious motivation to confuse and mislead the town by the use of a WIFOM gambit.
First of all, lets look at the odds.Now, be forewarned that I am no Mathstatition, but I think my experience calculating Crit% vs Raw DPS in WoW may be enough to guide me here.
Naturally, we must start by calculating the mathematical chance of a truly random vote. There are 12 players but we can assume that we wouldn't include ourselves as a random vote chance. So, a random vote would give us a 1/11 chance of voting any given player, or about 9.1%.
Next, and this is where I get a little shaky (early, I know), the chances of a random vote landing on the same player as another random vote (for this we must, sadly, disregard the intentional OMGUS vote, unless, of course, PerArdua was the last to confirm at random...) are about 1/121, or .82%.
So, we have one number; the likelihood that alvinz95 and MafiaPlayer both randomly got the same result is .82%. Of course, random is random, and in an infinitely expanding universe, all possibilities will occur. However, there is one more likelihood to consider; The likelihood that MafiaPlayer is lying. What are the odds of that? Well, 99.08% is the obvious answer (total likelihood - the likelihood that a random vote landed on super random dude). But, there is yet one more number to think about, and it's an important one; The chance that MafiaPlayer is scum. What are the chances of THAT?!
Let's find out: There are 12 players in this game. We can assume that 3 of them are Scum. That means that each one of us has a 3/12 or 1/4 or 25% blind chance to be scum as of this moment. So, MafiaPlayer has a 25% chance to be scum. And so does Alvin95. And so do I. And so do you.
So, if we compare the numbers we have so far:
99.08% chance that Post 29 is a lie. 25% chance that the author is scum.
I think the clear choice is to lynch the liar.
Now, before you go off with your fists clenched, screaming for my head and holding up signs that say "ALVIN'S VOTE WASN'T RANDOM" and "ALL YOUR MATH SUCKS YOU GIANT DOUCHBAG," realize that even if Alvin's vote wasn't random, the chances that MafiaPlayer is telling the truth (1/11 or 9.1%) are still far lower than the chances that he is scum (25%)!
Finally, consider the alternative; true, there is a 75% chance that MafiaPlayer is town, butwhy would town lie? We can discardthattheory without loosing any sleep.
Now, let's go back and take another look at the motivation.No matter how you feel about the math, the very real truth is that putting someone, anyone, at 3 votes in the middle of page 2 is an eye-catcher.Why would someone do this?To avoid attention? That seems unlikely. To push some agenda, or to try for a quicklynch? I think not, since these outcomes rarely follow such a situation as we have here. No...the most likely outcome, known to the experienced player, is the following:
= MafiaPlayer / = Town / = Scum
: I PUT THIS GAY ON L-4, BUT IS RANDOM
: LOL NUB vote:
:twisted:: SCUMMY! vote:
:twisted:: NO IS JUST L-4 WHY WOULD DO THAT?! WOULDN'T DO
: WIFOMWIFOMWIFOMWIFOMWIOFMWIUFOMWFIOWasdfasdf!!!oen
: I DUN VOTE RANDOM IN RANDOM STAGE
MY BAD IT WUZ RANDOM THO
(super random dude): I can't believe you guys are voting me for no reason, god.
:twisted:: OMG L2READNUB MAYBE YOU ARE SCUM NOW TOO
: GUYZ WAIT
: I need a replacement
:twisted:: I'm VLA till then, then.
: LIKING MY VOTE
:shock::twisted::shock:: YAAY CAUGHT SCUM!
As you can see from the dramatization; MafiaPlayer ends up out of the spotlight after stirring up a whole S-storm, and may even come out of it looking pro-town.
Too Long, Didn't Read
Whether you read that whole business or not, I thank you. My conclusions are thus;
MafiaPlayer's Post 29 is mathematically and strategically most likely an attempt to mislead and confuse the town. For this, he should swing.
Vote: MafiaPlayer-
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Porkens Survivor
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I eagerly await his answer as well.SpyreX wrote: I'm waiting for him to answer. That last one didn't seem like a joke, and got ma cackles up. My vote is quasi-real.
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f&*% it, I can't wait;
1. MS seems either worried or offended that his "random" vote was the subject of my post.MafiaPlayer wrote: 1. Do people really read that much into random votes?
2. unvote, porkens
3. One person randomly voting for a person does not lower the odds for another random vote once it has already happened; that is a fallacy.over-defensive
2. MS drops his "random" vote and votes for meOMGUS
3. First of all, I ~kinda~ already addressed this sort of scenario in my previous post;
3 continued.Porkens wrote: Now, before you go off with your fists clenched, screaming for my head and holding up signs that say "ALVIN'S VOTE WASN'T RANDOM" and "ALL YOUR MATH SUCKS YOU GIANT DOUCHBAG," realize that even if Alvin's vote wasn't random, the chances that MafiaPlayer is telling the truth (1/11 or 9.1%) are still far lower than the chances that he is scum (25%)!However,if both votes are random, I'm fairly sure that math is correct. Although, I can see where it gets confusing:
Amateur-hour math ahead!!!
What MS said was true; the fact that Dice #1 rolls an 11 doesn't change the odds of Dice #2 rolling anything.
But, the probability thatbothdice would randomly role and 11 is, I believe, 1/11*1/11=1/121 (or a about .8%). So, if both of these votes were actually random, this outcome had less than a 1% chance of happening (or; there's more than a 99% chance that someone is lying).
TL;DR
My vote on MafiaPlayer just became serious because:
1. Overly-Defensive
2. OMGUS
3. Dismissing an argument against him as a fallacy when A: The argument did not hinge on the component in question and B: The component in question ~probably~ isn't, in fact, a fallacy.-
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Sun Tzu wrote: I'm leaving my vote on Porkens. This nonsense isn't helping and it's getting old.
Hahhaa, ok, my bad. I see now that I was muddying the waters with my big posts. Let's get back to theissues, guys, and stop all this petty OMGUS. This game has been good, so far, there have been a lot of well-built cases and, man, GOOD scumhunting. Even though the game's just getting started! You know, and I hope this doesn't fall back into the "nonsense" catagory you were refering to, ST, this game has had 56 posts in 6 days (just less than .5 posts per hour)! So I agree with Sun Tzu that it would really be better if we all cut out all the silliness. It just gets in the way of the real game!-
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I know it's a pretty long read, but if you'll look at my post history I think you'll pick it up pretty easily.Tax wrote: Pokens can you tell me what scum tells you are talking about, the only thing I see is a OMGUS vote.
Let's say we are getting somewhere, but we have all been forced to wear blindfolds. You manage to peak out from under yours!sun Tzu wrote: I'm not sure if we're getting anywhere, but this is fun so far.
Sun Tzu, please tell us; Where are we going?-
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Excuse me, but I have to completely dissagree with you. I'm currently voting someone for perfectly legitimate reasons outlined in a case that I've built against him.If you don't get the meaning of my post, you're not paying attention.
What I'm saying is, "YOU PEOPLE AREN'T ACTUALLY PLAYING MAFIA, YOU'RE JUST POSTING POST AFTER POST OF NOTHING."
Now, if you wanted to join the game too, you could agree with the case and vote alongside me, disagree with the case and tell us why, or build a case on someone else! You could even ask some questions!-
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was a joke.
was scummy.
was on page 3.
The "math" isn't part of the case, at any point. The fact that MafiaPlayer dismissed the math as a fallacy is.-
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The math isn't a reason to suspect MafiaPlayer. However, he tried to dismiss the math as a fallacy. But, the math is correct, so whether it was serious or not, calling it a fallacy is wrong. The way he tried to dismiss it as "wrong" was scummy.TAX wrote:Oh I see, but in you feal case you make refreence to you first case actually meaning something. Like when you address you math of being correct. If it was a joke tthen why use it in a agument?-
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SKIP TO THE LAST BOLD SECTION IN THIS POST IF YOU'RE SICK OF MATH
1. The Numbers
I'll try one more time to show you why you are wrong:MafiaPlayer wrote: The numbers are a fallacy because if you roll one die, that doesn't lower the odds of rolling the same number on another die.
The Math:
1. Pretend you and alvin are each a 4-sided dice.
2. The chance that either of you, independantly, will roll a 4 is 1/4.
3. The chance thatbothof you roll a 4 is 1/16: 1 out of 16 possible combinations:
1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1
1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2
1 3 2 3 3 3 4 3
1 4 2 4 3 44 4
4. Just change the 1d4 to a 1d11 situation (like we have) and there you go; 121 possible 2-roll combinations, only 1 of those where both of you come up with the same result.
The Fallacy
1. A fallacy is a hinging component of an argument that isn't true, therefore corrupting the entire argument.
2. The origionalcase on you was built on the idea that the chance of you randomly choosing any one individual was lower than the chance of you being scum. The casejokedid not hingeon the idea that there was a 1/121 chance that you randomly voted for the same person as alvin (this was addressed in the origional joke case and in the real case, on page 3).
3. So, calling the math a fallacy in my case is wrongbecause:twice
A: The argument did not hinge on the specific math in question
and
B: The math isn't wrong.
2. TL;DR
1. You're still wrong, in two different ways, about the math being a "fallacy"
2. Your reaction was overdefensive
3. Your reaction was OMGUS
4. You haven't addressed 2 or 3 at all, instead, you've joked around (which would be fine but it'sstillOMGUS) and repeated the accusation of my case containing a fallacy.-
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I hope it's clear that there are two things being discussed in my posts:TAX wrote:No in the post you used the numbers to a reaction of MafiaPlayer.
1. The mathmatical discussion of chance in the game
and
2. The real case on MafiaPlayer
Now, each stage of the game here, I've really questioned myself about whether to continue the argument about the math. I've decided to keep it in because thedismissalof the math asa fallacyis scummy, so it's important that I show that the math I provided in my joke case is correct.
But, notice, in the real case against MafiaPlayer, I don't list the mathmatical probability that he was lying (or that he's scum).
One last time; The math isn't important. The Reaction to the math is.-
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Porkens Survivor
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Here's an outside reference, too (4 second google search)
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_the_ ... h_two_dice-
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Porkens Survivor
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WARNING: ALL MATH AHEAD, NO CASE-RELATED INFORMATION
Part I
Well, yes and no. It all depends on which odds you're talking about;Sun Tzu wrote: This is pretty simple.
There are 11 possibilities. One of them is the same as the other person.
1/11
The chances of 1d11 coming up any particular number is 1/11. To translate this into game terms;
The odds that MafiaPlayer's random vote would come up with super random dude were 1/11.
However,
The chances of 2d11 both coming up 11 is 1/121. Translation:
The odds that both MafiaPlayer's random vote.andAlvin's random vote would come up with super random dude were 1/121
Part II
It depends on how many sides the dice have and if you careSun Tzu wrote:Question: What are the odds of rolling doubles with two dice?what kind of doublesthey roll.
Looking back at the 1d4 example;
1 1_2 1_3 1_4 1
1 2_2 2_3 2_4 2
1 3_2 3_3 3_4 3
1 4_2 4_3 4_4 4
That's 16 different possible combinations, if it matters what sort of doubles they role. You have a 1/16 chance to roll any specific combination.
If you don't care what kind of doubles you get, then any of the 4 doubles above will please you; and you have a 4/16 or 1/4 chance to "roll any doubles".
If I knew more maths, I would be able to come up with the formula to find the probability of doubles on any X-sided dice, but with a 4-sider; the answer to your question: "what is the probability of rolling doubles with two dice" is (assuming 4-sided dice):
1/16 if you care which double is rolled.
Or 1/4 if you only care about "rolling doubles"
Part III
Is 2 a different number than 3? They would get identical results, but the identical result would be on a different person.Sun Tzu wrote: Are you saying they don't get the same result when they both roll 1, 2, or 3?
If we applyPart IIto the game and just translate into game terms:
The odds that both MafiaPlayer and Alvin would randomly select super random dude, specifically, were 1/121
The odds that both MafiaPlayer and Alvin would randomly select any identical player were 1/11
Part IV
1. 1/11 (if he wont vote for himself)Another question:
1. There are 12 players in a game. The first 11 all vote for different people so no one has more than one vote. When the 12th player votes randomly, what are the odds he doesn't vote someone with a vote already?
2. Last question:
There are 23 people in a room. What are the odds that at least 2 of them have the same birthday?
(Now, the odds of that scenario happening <if you meant to say that the first 11 people also voted randomly> is something like 1/3trillion.
2. Ohhh what is it...like 50% is what they say?-
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Porkens Survivor
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Aha, duuhhhh...I couldn't see the forest for the trees on that one.Sun Tzu wrote: It's 1/x.
Whatever the first roll is, the other one has a 1 in x chance of being the same.
You can also think of it as there being x different ways of rolling doubles out of x2 possibilities.
Or 1 way to roll a specific double out of x2 possibilities.Sun Tzu wrote: You can also think of it as there being x different ways of rolling doubles out of x2 possibilities.
Good talk.Sun Tzu wrote:I'm not going to comment on the rest since I think we're on the same page.
-or-
Or[/u] we?!ARE
Someone or other voted him for being "the perfect dude to to randomly vote" IIRC.Sun Tzu wrote:As an aside, I wonder if superrandomdude gets more than his fair share of "random" votes in games due to his name.
So, now that we've fondled each others' math books; whatdoyou think of MafiaPlayer?-
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Porkens Survivor
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I agree the argument about math is bordering on "too much" at this point. Although, I'm still proud of that first joke case. Speaking of; what I meant with this question was:Sun Tzu wrote:
He doesn't seem particularly scummy to me. I think the whole math conversation was pretty pointless.Porkens wrote:whatdoyou think of MafiaPlayer?
The daykill thing was funny, but I haven't played with him to know if that is more likely as town or scum.
What do you think about his reactions to the joke case?
Hmmm, I'm glad you accept some things, but...the joke case wasn't a trap, at all, I never expected or hoped for a reaction like the one MafiaPlayer gave me.kuribo wrote:And if you call my suspicion of Porkens "minimal," you must be high. Alot of Porkens' behavior disturbs me, but I'm willing to accept that he may have been "setting a trap," as it were.
You'reMafiaplayer wrote:The odds are certainly 1/36 that both roll a 6.
But the odds are 1/6 that it rolls any doubles and thus is noticed.stillnot responding to the actual case. Do you care to?-
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Porkens Survivor
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I see. Would you object if we make the following small change, then?Kuribo wrote: Not that I'm aware of, but the assumption I had made, (and perhaps others, though I cannot speak for them) was that it was.
kuribo wrote:It's nice that youadmitclarified that it wasn't your intent, but rather an unintended consequence.-
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Porkens Survivor
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My mistake.kuribo wrote:
I don't replace out, I replace in.Porkens wrote:Kuribo, why don't you just ask for a replacement at this point? It's obvious to me you're not really interested in playing any kind of social game.
And it seems at times like I'm the only one interested in actually playing.
I'll eagerly await your next post analyzing the game and "playing" mafia.-
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Why are you voting for me?Sun Tzu wrote:I haven't posted anything lately because I don't have anything to say. I don't see much happening.
The math stuff was pointless and didn't lead anywhere. Now we're arguing about who's playing mafia.
You said you agreed to the case on Mafiaplayer, and you haven't presented one on me, so explain your vote.-
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Unvote Vote: SpyreX
I'm growing tired of your games. This is going no where and you certainly are not helping that.
If I read SpyreX's silly posts right, he's claiming a killing role, and says anyone who doesn't vote for MafiaPlayer is in danger of getting shot. I think that has a mid-to fair chance of getting the game going. Don't you?-
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Porkens Survivor
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I was actually hopping SpyreX would shoot sun tzu last night, myself, for the same reasons. But I guess Spy didn't want to break his word about killing someone not on the MP wagon.
Soooooo...if I read through SpyreX's, what I'm guessing is self-imposed, post-restriction-ish prose:
1. A doctor protected someone last night
2. Someone was hit but didn't die (bulletproof, etc)
If there is a doc, and he/she/it protected SpyreX, I agree they should not come out. But if the doc covered someone else, like me, it might be worth it to out yourself to clear your target.
If someone was hit but didn't die because of a bullet-proof vest or whatnot, it'd be impossible to prove, so you might as well stay quiet.
Anyways;Vote: Sun Tzu-
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1. Kuribo, I apologize for what I said Day 1 about you 'not wanting to play any kind of social game'. I feel ashamed that I treated you, someone who was willing to replace into a game, like that.
2. I guess I see the angle Sun Tzu is trying to take, but it doesn't fly for me, at all. This whole LAL case against Kuribo because he said he would bet his nut (which is obviously meant figuratively) might be called a fallacy (loooooool).
3. Hammertime IMHO.-
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No, I agree with you that the hypocrisy point is flimsy. And, like I said, Iseewhat you are saying about the 'knowing' and the flaw in a town saying that.
Again, though, just like Mafiaplayer, you're not presenting a reasonable defense. 'promise' meta and attacking your accuser for the semantic difference between "strongly suspect" and "know,", read as desperate scum, to me.no matter how true you believe them to be
You just seem to be purposefully inflammatory.
While I'm not on board with calling kuribo or SpyreX obvtown, I'll let that play out as it will, for now they're certainlyprotown.
I also have kind of a Newbie question; Where I come from, Serial Killersmustkill every night. Is the same true, generally, here?-
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why are you trying to stifle conversation? SCUMTELLspyrex, porkens, kuribo, sun tzu and myself should stop posting since we're obviously talking right past one another, and we should wait until the other half of the living players in this game rejoin the conversation. how's that sound everybody? feel free to agree by not posting.-
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Sun Tzu, I just can't believe that that you honestly feel indignant about our reaction to your playstyle. You must know it's, at best, extremely unusual and, at worst, bad.
I actually did go read your other game, and you were hung day one as scum, playing the same way. I'm guessing you're just trying to be consistant.
Honestly; however you want to play is A-OK for me, as long as you knock off the insults and stop the crazy-level multi-posting.
My vote stays on you. I've got good feelings off of Kuribo, Spy, and CF. You, I hope, are scum. And I'll wait for the replacements to judge the rest.-
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hypocrite.Sun Tzu wrote: Yes, it was a serious question. Why do you refuse to answer my questions?
Sun Tzu wrote: I don't see what your hurry is. That's not pro-town.
I just can't take the multi-posting, insults, and illogical non-arguments. You kick up so much dust with your posts, I'm not even enjoying the game anymore. Once you are dead, and can't post anymore, real discussion can happen.Sun Tzu wrote: Do any of you have any integrity?-
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Sun Tzu wrote: How am I a hypocrite?Sun Tzu wrote:Also notice that I didn't promise I was town in that game.Porkens wrote:Why do you think this is worth town-points?Sun Tzu wrote:Why do you think that I think this is worth town-points?Porkens wrote:Is that a serious question?Sun Tzu wrote:Yes, it was a serious question. Why do you refuse to answer my questions?Porkens wrote:Hypocrite.
Sun Tzu wrote:If you think I'm refusing to answer something, let me know what you want me to answer.Porkens wrote:Why do you think this is worth town-points?-
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