Mini 735 - Bad Times In Kuribonia- Game over!

[Kieraen]

confirm

[Kieraen]

Hey everyone

Nothing to report or think just yet, just a note to say I am here and playing.

Will be posting as brainwaves start working

[Kieraen]

I totaly agree, prof gumpy. I think Random votes are a waste of time. We should investigate and put pressure on people, lets say three votes, enough to make them sweat, but not enough to cause a bandwagon. We tried it another game im playing on day one and i think we have found a mafia (game is still in progress (newbie 730).

[Kieraen]

Okay apologies for mentioning a current game

I dunno how we choose, I suppose is naturaly just happened, however the pressure is still there, as mafia will bandwagon, players will become convinced, and its starts discussion.

Hmm...other than this I don't know how else we could start the investigations. Im still anti random vote. any ideas?

[Kieraen]

lol, okay fair enough, why not let it be me who is pressured first.

Ill defend myself. I do believe in pressuing people. Whats the point of a collection of random votes. What can assertain from that? We must push people, check their voting styles, make them sweat, even if that sweaty player is me.

Also keep your eyes open for people bandwagoning on me. Me being pressures isnt just a tell on my game but the people who vote for me.

I won't OMGUS vote on Tovarish, as I can understand his reasons for voting for me. However I hope you are open to the idea of retracting your vote when you see my innoncence.

[Kieraen]

@TOVARISH
I disagree with your interpretation of my playstyle. I now have two votes and there are many people who will follow your vote, bandwagon or vote because they are mafia and know me to be innocent. You try telling me there aint any pressure! I (and others in my position) will talk more, defend myself more, and you will see many others attack me more. This is a tell of myself and others.

Now try telling me that a random vote is better than this.

VOTE:Tovarish

For a poor counter argument. I feel your just drumming up support for a quicklynch against myself just beacuse i have dared to be a little bit controversial and havent followed the 'easy' path of a random vote.

On a side note. I do not want a quicklynch. I believe we CAN find a mafia through logic on day one. Lets not lynch a townie. Through pressure and voting strategies we can easily discover a mafia on day one, so i implore people to take their time in voting and debate.

[Kieraen]

Agreed Prof Gumpy. 3 Is enough, Last thing we want is to give Mafia a chance to bandwagon. I want Tovarash to explain his vote against me first. However he may still may be townie , and i do not wish an easly lynch.

[Kieraen]

I think people are just jumping on the first person to say something controversial. However, at least there is some more discussion. I don't believe there would be any discussion if we had random votes.

I use this tactic in other games and bring attention to myself, but what can I say, Im not too scared of getting attention because i can defend myself as long as people are able to listen.

Also, if I am mafia, what advantage does it hold for me to come up and say 'dont random vote'? Vote to put pressure on someone will make them talk more.

ironically that person is first of all me. and im talking loads, and so are other people. Mission acomplished! And I bet some of you other people are having a few thoughts not just about myself, but about people who would vote so swiftly against myself.

Even if i am quicklynched, i will maintain this tactic in other games.

[Kieraen]

I agree with 12. Whether myself or any other person we put pressure on, we definitely should NOT lynch this early before deadline.

[Kieraen]

Because Kieraern was against random voting and would rather work on pressuring people instead of random voting? Random voting serves to jump start the game, as you put it, 'facilitate discussion.' If anything, Kier was getting the ball rolling by starting discussion.

My intentions entirely. I maintain that even though I have three votes, I am more pleased with the discússion in this game than if it had continued with random voting.

I havent had a chance to reread the game, and will be posting again with suspicions thoughts, etcetra.

God its still scary being at three votes, lol

[Kieraen]

FOS:REECER

That is TWICE now that you have said you are suspicious of the person with high votes.

First on page two you said you were suspicious of me with no reasons (beacause I had suspicioun on me from controversial speach).

Second of all, post 55, where he was suspicious of the two people with 3 votes (Myself and TOVARISH), whilst not commiting to voting.

For me it seems decidely suspicious to state your suspicion, sitting on the fence, whilst not putting yourself in a position to be attacked as you 'didn't vote yet'.

Also MONKEY MAN seems to be putting pressure on me with a third vote, which is what I initialy suggested as a way of encouraging discussion and debate, yet still argues in a 'random vote'. This is for me seemingly contradictionary.

TOVARASH: I want you to answer some questions satisfactorily, before I retract my vote. First do you feel under pressure on three votes? even though you know this is pressure voting do you feel like you could be lynched, either by mafia bandwagoning, or by townies being unsatisfied with your arguments.

If yes than your vote against me is unqualified by argument, as you stated there is no pressure if it is initialy stated, a stance I disagree with. I am only 4 votes away from being lynched. As are you.

Also, as an alternative to my stratergy of systematically voting for a player (by three votes) to force some pressure and response, what would you suggest. random votes? Votes based on names? Avatars?

Votes based on last nights night kill....oh wait we havent had one yet!

I am open for suggestion.

[Kieraen]

Ah but TING there is a threat of lynching.
say three people put a vote on someone. There is always mafia ready to follow suit, 'weak' players and 'bussing' players who will follow suit. No one likes being on three votes and i believe even if it is a deliberate 'pressure vote' there is always a threat of vote.

MONKEYMAN I dont believe that random voting is good for discussion. You can always blame it on a joke or on a silly choice but the chances are, is that a random vote leads to a random lynch....probably townie.

Right now, finish the defensive, on with the offensive.
I want to see some justification in the votes from TOVARISH and particularly HOUSE OF CARDS.

I am satisfied with MONKEYMANS logic.

I would also like to hear some NEW ideas coming from REECER, who has just followed suit with current voting trends.

Where have your suspicions come from?

[Kieraen]

Mafia can always find a reason to lynch, and already people are asking questions of myself, REECER, MONKEYMAN, and HOUSE OF CARDS.

I would argue that as a starting point for discussion it has worked.

[Kieraen]

Final point.
If your right, we can agree on one thing. its more pressure than no votes, and i hope you agree its more pressure than random voting.

anyway. Im waiting for replies from other players now.

[Kieraen]

UNVOTE:TOVARISH

Okay I can understand your argument, even if i dont particularly like the way you say it.

VOTE:REECER

For unqualified voting.

[Kieraen]

correction...REECER hasnt voted yet. I actualy meant, for hís suspicions on myself first and then on myself and TOVARISH which were unqualified but followed with voting patterns.

[Kieraen]

hey ting
BAD SMILEY
I'm not a girl, I'm a MAN , I can forgive you though as my irish name is not a common name i know and i didn't initialy have my gender on here, but still, I'm not a girl

ta

ps Im half scottish so what im wearing is NOT a skirt, its called a kilt!

[Kieraen]

Role claim wouldnt prove anything at this point.

Unfotunetly REECER it wouldn't be a good defense, as you have nothing to show us, and no proof that your telling the trueth.

I suggest you use logic and reason out of this situation, because if your townie, lying of having a role, your lies will get you killed one day,
and if your a powerrole or mafia you will claim doctor anyway.

I would argue that if you role claim you will jepodise the town into a state of chaos, if others (Mafia or others with a vested interest) will claim and counter claim roles.

I URGE you to NOT role claim, we are still so early in the game, and all people are asking for is clarification on your voting.


@TOVARISH, we seem to be entrenched against each other, however we agree on one thing, the one thing we have done is encourage guilt against ourselves. I would suggest we that this would reveal us to be inexpierenced mafia, townie, or a genuis mafia with a master plan (ps im joking here)

@everyone
FINAL NOTE ON SYSTEMATIC VOTING
I didn't intend this to be such a hot potato. My attitude towards this system has changed to an article I have read called BURDEN OF PROOF. read its only four lines long,
http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... n_of_Proof

[Kieraen]

REECER please explain the last explanation.

I dont understand the implications of your comment, but i understand your trying to make me look suspicious after I became suspicious of your unexplained, unvoted for 'suspicions' which were not town friendly, they just encouraged early lynching.

@EVERYBODY
Just to clarify I haven't private messaged anybody from this game or any other. Can anyone clarify what the hell REECER is on about?

Okay I feel it is time to promote FOS against REECER into

VOTE:REECER

.

Short answers that have typicaly included 'I am suspicious of (insert people with most votes here)', and have done nothing but add fuel to a fire. Now i find myself under an unspecified accusation that i dont understand.

[Kieraen]

MOD
YOU PUT MY VOTE DOWN TWICE FOR REECER.

HE ONLy HAS THREE VOTES!!!!

PLEASE EVERYONE BE AWARE OF THIS!!!"

[Kieraen]

MOD

YOu have stated that REECER has voted for himself??

COME ON MOD whats the REAL VOTE COUNT

[Kieraen]

Sorry MOD I have voted twice for REECER. I thought I had only voted once after my FOS.

However please be speedy in correcting your vote count. A quick read of what you have written will point out inconsistencies.

[Kieraen]

Cheers for correction MOD.

@REECER I maintain I will retract my vote for you if you can logically explain your actions. Explain yoursuspicion of myself and TOVARISH?. Or are you now suspicios of yourself as you have the highest vote count.

Also I would like an explaination as to what post 108 meant, or incinuated.

[Kieraen]

DEFEND YOURSELF.

Your starting to sabotage the game! Not answering my call as mafia or as town makes no sense! Your highly suspicious and likely to be kicked out, based on less than ten lines of dialogue! Talk maybe your innocent! How can we know? TALK!

[Kieraen]

I wish to dissuade you from this TOVARISH. Maybe he will stop his jack assing around. I want some explanations, before we have a quicklynch. We have plenty of time for day one and I intend to use it.

However I will maintain my vote. L-2 seems reasonable. And I still fail to see what explaination could explain his erratic play.

in summary, I think he probably will be lynched as I cant see any decent explanation for his behaviour but agree with TING's attitude of slowplaying and keeping our options open for now.

[Kieraen]

@TING

Please allow me to defend myself. What is it about my reaction that you find discomforting?

[Kieraen]

Okay just covering bases. Made me sound suspicious.

[Kieraen]

Ummm...'

UNVOTE

Also Kirean, I RWALLy think you are innocent now, so, can we Pm other people during the day part?

´

I STILL want clarification on this. REECER what do you mean by this? This for me is still the guiltiest phrase so far in the game...

Are you infering that I have private messaged you or can PM mean something else? If so why are you making this accusation? Its not pro town as its a lie, (im townie but i dont expect any of you guys to believe it) and attacking pro town isnt positive.

I want answers, or I maintain my vote.

I suspect TOVARISH a little less now though he does seem rather lynch happy. He does seem to be an aggressive player but I have no problem with that. I will maintain an eye of him. Im not sure if he is lynch happy mafia or trigger happy tonwnie, however I think Lynch 1 amd day 2 will reveal that.

[Kieraen]

UNVOTE

too early for lynch.

Not sure I believe REECER however, his behaviour has been strange.

[Kieraen]

I am not scum. I have been perhaps one of the greatest attackers on REECER, and it was I who initialy attacked him for his claiming of suspicion against myself and TOVARISH.
I will lynch him if needs be (probably soon as i feel i have long been suspicious of him), but I want answers to who he thinks is suspicious, why he twice claimed suspicion on the people with the most votes but gave no evidence as to why he felt this way, and what the post 108 meant?

[Kieraen]

Yes, but that still proves nothing. A mafia also knows who is innoncent or guilty. its a nulltell.

[Kieraen]

Just a brief overview for now.

I was pretty annoyed when you hammered, Monkeyman. I still maintained that it was too early. Thats why I removed my vote. In fact the town as a whole was far too quick and I feel we should slow down a little bit. Day one shouldnt be that quick.

However in defence of the town, from the outset Reecer played like a guilty fool in this game, I fail to see his logic or gameplan.

Still, Ill be back to comment on the day one action, I've forgotten what happened.

However first question. Why TOVERISH? He was a loud player so there should be loads of reads and tells. I am aware that due to an early argument with him, I could be in the frame, but what others?

okay will post later with my read of the game.

[Kieraen]

Why was it the best indicator?
I don't understand the need for speed?
I was fully prepared to vote for him as a suspicious person, but not to lynch yet, he was a crap player and i wanted to see him start using logic. When he cop claimed as far as i was concerned it was 50:50, and it was our duty as town to ensure that we got a full argument from him, and why waste day one by quicklynching, we could look for alternative targets?

Im sorry Monkeyman, but you and Ting gave the town 10 hours to object to a lynch against Reecer before you hammered. One other town member (TOVARISH) objected (apart from me and Ting who UNVOTED) and no one else even had time to comment. for me 6 of those hours were between 12 midnight and 6 am. I dont think a timeframe like that is indicative of someone who wants to avaoid a quick lynch

I agree there's nothing to be gained by a quick lynch. Might as well look for more scum.

Unvote
Vote: Prof. Guppy

Were you afraid more time and more targets would result more people thinking against a quicklynch? Maybe discovering your mafia?

Also after your hammer you said

Unvote:
Vote: Reecer

I'll explain tomorrow. If I'm alive.

but today you provide this explanation:

Looks like we have a pro-town killer, at least.

Anyways, the reason I hammered was I knew if we kept Reecer around as a cop, we pretty much couldn't trust anything he said, the fact that Reecer refused to say who he thought was guilty, and that coupled with the fact that Ting said he was "pretty sure" that reecer was scum, and then said he was ready to believe he was town the next page, gave me reason to believe that we'd be better off figuring out info from night action results than carry on the current course of discussion.

That being said, I am willing to take full responsibility for the lynch, and regret that we lost a cop, but still feel we're probably better off, given reecer's unreliable nature, provided we get some decent night action results.

For me this is totaly unsatisfactory. Why do you decide we cannot trust his cop suspicions. In retrospect his going with the flow was to avoid undue attention from the mafia (something i completely disbelieved and missed unfortunetly) . I do not think we are 'Better off' with him. He was erratic yes, but the chance of cop claim might have believed had the logic returned to his game.

So for me it absolutely has to be

VOTE: MONKEYMAN

will be rereading the game for more tells, and defense.

@TING

I find a case against you also.

Unvote.

We're in page 5. I don't think I'm comfortable with anyone being at L-1 so soon.

Then why, when finaly REECER becomes more forthcoming and role reveals a possible (and ultimetly truethful claim) do you then have no problem in a quicklynch?

I need to reread your game before any further questions however...

FOS:TING

[Kieraen]

Thats rubbish. I did say that I attacked him, however I withdrew my vote, I constantly asked him for confirmation of his posts, their meaning, his logic, explained to him why cop claiming was insificient etc

In short I investigsated his actions

I didn't just quicklynch him. In fact whilst attacking him (with my previous argument of causing pressure) I withdrew my vote not wanting a lynch yet.

When he claimed and started to chat more, I felt we were starting to see a bit more. In trueth I still had him down as number one suspect, but myself as well as TOVARISH asked for no quick lynch!

[Kieraen]

@TING Yes and Im slightly less suspicious of you that monkeyman. However you did agree to the lynch. One thing helps your case however; your removal of the vote against REECER on page 5. I just think that we had time for a little more argument and you lynch as REECER began being (slightly) coherent and logical.
I also disagree with your thoughts on a length of a day. A day length should be based on how many suspects you have and njot how long we played. We had one suspect, as the cases against me, prof guppy and tovaresh were weak. I felt we could have played longer, even to see if anyone defended Reecer.

@MONKEYMAN, yes but don't confuse his personality with his play. I was hoping his play would begin to make sense, Thats why I asked him (as did TOVARESH) to not claim, as at this point it wouldnt defend him (and it did not). We both asked for logical and coherent argument.

One more thing. I agree with the hypothosis óf their being a serial Killer. Can't read anything into 12's play except that someone got lucky lynching him.

[Kieraen]

post 210

Monkey's hammer seemed as out of the blue to me as it does to you.

NO....sorry, but...

post 180

I think it's about time to hammer reecer?

post 181

I concur.

Vote:Reecer.

That's L-2 again, I think.

qualified with an, 'L-2... I think'.

You may be the unfortunate townie who was the only one who gave MONKEYMAN permission (whilst TOVARESH disagreed), however you must agree this does put you in a suspicious position.

also I dont think we are disagree with the length of day rule. I wouldnt want to arbitrarily drag out a day for more information that cant be had (in this we agree, end the day when there is no more information). I just disagree that this day had ended. I felt i didnt know anything about half the players here, that the town was tunnelled on REECER, and that he was beginning to talk sensibly for the first point in the game.

So what are your feelings regarding the rest of the day ones action? Who else do you suspect? Where do you go from here?
I feel I should ask you because you have already dismissed the night tells, which puts us (at least i believe you are saying), back at a Random Voting stage. If im wrong please correct me or show me the way to finding scum.

post 197

kier wrote:
"However first question. Why TOVERISH? He was a loud player so there should be loads of reads and tells. I am aware that due to an early argument with him, I could be in the frame, but what others?"

I don't support nk speculation. For wifom/framing reasons.

post 197 makes me suspicious. You dismiss any suspicion on the voters of Reecers lynch due to his scummy play, but surely some of them must have been bandwagoning mafia? there must be some credence to examing and suspicion? Do you maintain this view, because it would seem to me that this is a purely defensive measure from a player who basically Seconded the hammer.

I disagree. Reecer was acting scummy, I can't suspect anyone who genuinely found him suspicious. It'd be surprising if no one at all found him suspicious. I'll reread later to figure out who I think seemed like they were just hopping.

So my over all question TING is where does our evidence come from?

[Kieraen]

Yes but the likelyhood is that the mafia are contained in the group voting for REECER. and MONKEYMAN and TING are my top suspects.

[Kieraen]

And Monkeyman? as vague as you can be (as it is your night action) but was the action/result positive or negative?

[Kieraen]

qwints, hence my asking for it being vague.

Okay monkeyman, your role isnt going to save you, same as it didnt save reecer. You have to use logic and reason. I need a better reason for your hammer than you gave or I maintain my vote.

[Kieraen]

Yes but explain why then you asked for permission to hammer you ignored Tovareshs request not to hammer. Only Tovaresh and Ting replied, one saying a (debateable) yes and the other saying a specific no.

You hammered anyway with a 'I will explain tomorrow' post.

The following post explaination was unsatisfactary.

I am now requesting a better explaination. If you are unable to provide one then I will maintain my vote and encourage a lynch against you as your play is quite scummy and anti town.

[Kieraen]

This is poor. I have voted an put my thoughts, as have TING, and MONKEYMAN and to a lesser degree MONKEYMAN. Where are the other players?

[Kieraen]

Yes I mean, we have heard from you, myself, MM, TING since day two started, and only a few posts from others.
Apologies though you have posted more than i thought.

[Kieraen]

oh i see, oops yes i meant to put prof guppy instead of the second monkeyman. lol i was thiniing about how guilty hé is.

[Kieraen]

oh i see, oops yes i meant to put prof guppy instead of the second monkeyman. lol i was thiniing about how guilty hé is.

So you don't think Prof Guppy and/or Ting are guilty then?

I don't see much of a stand out argument against PROF, but i do feel TING has some questions to answer, however I still think we need some more opinions and less lurking.

I tell you what MM, as a special favour to you Ill review PROF's play during this low perioud of activity.

[Kieraen]

Because if he is a roleblocker, then he is townie.

[Kieraen]

I agree with MM. Your logic is understandable PROF, but we shouldnt be attacking him as a roleblocker, or defending him either. He has no proog as far as I can see that he is a roleblocker, so therfore its a null tell. We should vote for him based on the logic and play he has demonstrated. For this I would Lynch him.

@ALL PLAYERS
We lynched a player last night who played scummy but turned out to be cop. Please don't allow this to affect your decision. Dont think "scared that we might disbelieve a role blocker" but dont also let it influence you to think "two in a row ant be believeable. Just plan on his gamestyle and his MOTIVES for claiming. Are they honest. Im not totaly convinced they are.

[Kieraen]

@TING
I wnet to bed last night, didn't ignore you. What questions, Could you reask please, more than happy to answer.

Re. Vigilante/Serial Killer

Perhaps if we assume that MM claim is correct? I would suppose it would make more sense that a townie Roleblocker would be there to block a serial killer (in the context of the game model) than a vigilante? Otherwise the balance of power in the game would be pro-mafia. Quite a few big assumptions in that last post, but I would probably go along with the belief that their is a serial killer as opposed to a vigilante.

last note. Im a relatively new player. Is it typical or probable that a mini game would have both a vigilante and a serial killer?

[Kieraen]

@TING (sorry been V/LA this weekend so couldnt answer questions).
Okay firstly, I think that despite arguing on day one, there was one thing me and TOVARISH agreed on, and that was a long day.

Reasons why long day is pro town
1. Gives us potentialy more suspects
2. Can understand more players gameplay and watch for inconsistencies
3. Gives everyone a chance to speak
4. Gives us potentialy more than one bandwagon to compare notes against

My reasons for suspecting you are mainly based on your agreeing it was time to lynch and giving MM permission to do so. Im not completely convinced by your 'this is L-2' assumption. It came very much accross as two scum players making an 'accidental' mistake and hammering early in the game to avoid more discussion.
I believe the correct reaction when REECER started to talk about his role was what TOVRAISH proposed, which was to wait. Even if we were 100% positive of REECERs guilt, there was no harm in waiting and collecting targets.

[Kieraen]

Okay yeah I agree Ting the suspicion against you is much smaller than against MM. Its the mistaken L-2 claim that is suspicious. That mistake is a possible scumtell. However I do take on board the ultimate responibility of MM.
However you did advocate the lynch, and I maintain that was too early. He had began to talk and since we only had one target i don't think we had ascertained enough information from day one. Thats also a negative point against you.

So in conclusion.
Not enough information against you. Most is circumstantial. I need to reread earlier posts. But still a firm finger of suspicion against you, especialy if MM flips scum.

[Kieraen]

I already publicly stated a few pages ago I wanted you lynched.

I dunno how much scummyness I see in the proffessors play. Need to revisit his posts,

[Kieraen]

that proves it, MM is innocent.

No mafia would forget about a dead comrade (12)

[Kieraen]

Prof's post 369 argument is poor and total WIFOM
please ignore that post.
and if you ignore that post, please ignore this post as this post is only telling you to ignore that post.

god i hate posting pointlessly, I feel like the Prof

[Kieraen]

Oops not WIFOM.
Not massively good with the terminology of mafia just yet. Sometimes use WIFOM as a catchall phrase (which isnt good).

Also on second viewing the post isnt as useless as i first thought. MM has asked PROF to defend himself several times, and i suppose that is the reply to those.

Still, it is useless from the point of view that it doesnt help us establish anyones guilt or innocence.

...I'd love to say something that would convince you that I'm not Mafia.
But clearly, there's nothing I can do.

You could die...

That would conclusivly prove guilt or innocence.
...just saying...

[Kieraen]

Ythill. I would imagine mass claim would go something like this today.

Player 1: Vanilla Townie
Player 2: Vanilla Townie
Player 3: Vanilla Townie
Player 4: Vanilla Townie
Player 5: Vanilla Townie
Player 6: Vanilla Townie

I don't see any harm in that, and it might bring up a suprise or two, but with a likely no doctor (due to MM's Roleblocker claim, Unlikely we have to protective roles), and the likelyhood that we have a seriel killer I see it being an exercise in futility.

However the problem is that if we do have a vigilante, and he claims then the mafias focus will be on him, and town likely lose.

If we two mafia groups, then likely we have no results.

And if there is a seriel killer, then they won't claim either as mafia will want to kill him first.

I would say yes to a Mass Roleclaim, but I don't think it will provide us with any information. Only reads by peoples responses.

[Kieraen]

Perhaps it is a vigilante?
Prof Guppy was many peoples second choice suspect.

I still think it is probably SK though, the first day kill (12) was somewhat random.



Fortunetly (or rather unfortunetly for me ), the mafia and vig/SK has kindly killed two of the 5 lynchers last night and gives us a suspect list of three:
Myself, Ythill and Qwints.
I will read through Ythill, and Qwints game to see whats what. Obviously I am innocent

Two questions:
Who do you think mafia will be after tonight, townies or nightkiller?
Same question but for the town, who are we looking for tonight, townies or nightkiller?

The likelyhood is we end up with three dead by tomorrow (barring any double kills by mafia and SK/vig), one definite townie and one/two maybes. I think we need to have a good think about our intentions and who we are aiming for. If it is a SK tomorrow, that leaves us in an almost unwinnable position doesn't it?
But then if it is Vigilante, lynching him pretty much hands mafia the victory.

So what do we do?

[Kieraen]

How would it prove it Ythill? Surely Vig at this stage might lie. I mean lieing to the town to let the mafia think there is a SK. This would surely help the town?

Not sure about all the logic yet though, but...

If Scum think that Vig is SK, then Scum might not target the NK? More townies dead, and if mafia and NK kill all town then Mafia are certain winners no?

Plus what happens if vig/SK kills in night but is targeted by mafia. does NK still get a kill?

Hmm not sure of there is any holes in this, just some lazy thinking. But still don't see Mass Roleclaim providing any clues.

However I support it with. I don't see any harm in it.

[Kieraen]

Same question but for the town, who are we looking for tonight, townies or nightkiller?

I assume you mean mafia or NK... wondering if this is a scum-slip. I think the answer is mafia. If we have one mafia and one SK, it makes no difference. If we have any two-mafia scenario, we need to take one of them out before morning. Double kill tonight is unlikely as killers will be aiming for each other.

Okay. so I assume you would advocate aiming for mafia since with one mafia it makes no difference, and with two mafia, we need the advantage of reducing mafia numbers.
That makes sense.

I understand why your saying a Massclaim will show us whether the NK is SK/vig now.

Vig has to claim to show his colours and will die for the town. SK won't stick his neck out.

Okay I support a Massclaim then. At very least it makes the game easier to understand.

[Kieraen]

Logical. Also rereading through q21's posts I find nothing of note. Still need a reread however.

[Kieraen]

Ting we need your opinion on a mass claim.

And the question was supposed to read:
What are town trying to lynch today? Mafia or NK?
And does it matter that the Mafia are probably after the NK as well?

I have the first part answered, pretty well, by Ythill. It makes more sense to focus on Mafia, as outlined by arguments in the last two pages.
The second is a new question but probably too complicated to bother with. I think we keep it simple and just aim for any pro town kill. its 50:50 folks.

Okay will have a quick read through posts over the next few days. Got to say its tough. Most pro-town player for me (apart from me OF COURSE!) is Ythill, but I agree with Ting on this one, its not Ythill alone we must jusge, but Queenofhearts as well.

No clear anti-town players in my head yet. You guys will be the first to know when I find any

[Kieraen]

I'm not here thursday(Oasis concert HURRAH! ).

I'm prepared to go first, but I think its prudent to allow the player who suggested roleclaiming to go first.

Final thought. Now that we seem to be agreeing that we are looking for mafia regardless of the result of the Roleclaim, what are the benefits?
A Vig/SK makes no difference to our gameplan, does it?

I feel like I have missed something. Please enlighten me

[Kieraen]

I have been fully available also, during night and day phase (except a weekend in amsterdam but that wasn't night I don't think).

[Kieraen]

When did you begin to play Ythill?

[Kieraen]

I'll go next.
I'm a boring townie.

Which reaslitically makes it between q21 or ting, by tings post 417 logic.

[Kieraen]

Okay. I'm becoming very suspicious of house of cards. Considering he hasn't has a great deal of time on the computer due to 'it breaking' I would suppose that when he posted (not regularly, only 15 of them so far, in exactly 30 days, so one every two days), he would have something more conclusive to bring, longer posts, greater details etcetra, if he were townie.

However nothing of the sort has happened. His posts have been unsubstantial and empty. his longest post is ten lines long. 9 of these were a quote.

Here are a few choice examples of his more useless posts:

could we have a vote count plz im to lazy to look at votes

could we have a vote count and a role claim by MM

noy=not srry

O I forgot to confirm

/confirm

ok, im going V/LA in about an hour, so i might be on if the place im going has a library.......... srry for extremely short notice, if they dont have a computer ill be back in 3 or 4 days not sure yet. bye!!!!!!!!

thats six of his 15 posts. Hardly pro-town, but lets be fair lets see his more useful posts. Here are all the postsin which he has voted against a fellow player (two confirmed townies and myself):

i dont want to rush, but i dont think well find anything more scummyUnvoteVote Prof. Guppy

I'll explain tomorrow. If I'm alive.

when u lynch someone u cant just say that, if ur hammering him with anyone objecting u should atleast give them an explanation so unless you give a good reason to hammer him without talking it out, im voting for you.

cant remember if ive voted Unvote Vote Monkeyman

lol, okay fair enough, why not let it be me who is pressured first.

Ill defend myself. I do believe in pressuing people. Whats the point of a collection of random votes. What can assertain from that? We must push people, check their voting styles, make them sweat, even if that sweaty player is me.

Also keep your eyes open for people bandwagoning on me. Me being pressures isnt just a tell on my game but the people who vote for me.

I won't OMGUS vote on Tovarish, as I can understand his reasons for voting for me. However I hope you are open to the idea of retracting your vote when you see my innoncence.

Vote Kieraen saying to watch out for people bandwagoning seems a little scummy

So with nine of his posts here he hasn't been much of a useful players.

It strikes me as a decent idea to claim your computer is down and then lurk.

However, in defense of HoC, he isn't involved in any other games, so it isn't like he is clearly lying. His low post count overall (15/23 posts have been in this game) and recent joining date suggest one of two things: A newbie, or an Alt.
I would expect a newbie to have more enthusiasm for the game than he currently has, however his posts are littered with poor typing, spelling and grammer.

Is this a mafia ploy to suggest newbieness? Or is he just totaly unenthused for this game. A present he is the most useless of the town, and if we were at a point where we didn't have to be absolutely certain of a mafia lynch, I would suggest lynching him now, but I don't feel there is enough evidence yet.

However I want some more posts from him. In depth posts detailing his thoughts on all the players. We need a much higher read on him.


One final thought. For someone who has a tricky task of finding a computer he seems to be able it at all hours.

His last 5 posts have been at the following times 11:09 pm, 4:26 am, 6:40 pm, 2:50 am, 6:44 pm, Central European Time.

Minus 8 hours (I believe) for Arizona time and we have...

3pm, 8:30pm, 10:40am, 7pm, 10:45am.

Not damning (and it looks worse in my timezone lol, I totaly thought I had a killer argument til I remember he was in Arizona), but still worth a mention.

[Kieraen]

Sorry I know we are finding the seriel killer, but wanted to post it while it was fresh in my mind.

[Kieraen]

Sorry I know we are finding the seriel killer/Vig, but wanted to post it while it was fresh in my mind.

[Kieraen]

And there lies the problem with online gaming. You can't see my face and certainly can't get a read from me.

In all honesty guys I am vanilla. But these two typos are suspicious.

The first one was just a genuine slip. It as part of a medium sized post where I stated:

Two questions:
Who do you think mafia will be after tonight, townies or nightkiller?
Same question but for the town, who are we looking for tonight, townies or nightkiller?

The mistake was simply line of thought and not checking the posts.

The second 'slip' was also genuine, though I realised in the moment I posted. As I pressed the POST button I realised what I had typed and tried to press submit, (where I corrected my assumption of a SK). Unfortunelty it posted both. To be honest the whole town ( including myself) has made such a massive assumption in believing the NK to be SK that my posts reflect this belief.

However one positive is that mafia may (or may not) believe my claim, and by lynching me (a vanilla) will give themselves a massive disadvantage/advantage (mafia you have a choice now to make kill me and be wrong or right? ooh tough choices!).

@Ythill
Why do you now believe there is but one mafia? This is the first assumption of this nature I have heard and I would be interested in your reasoning (particularly if you yourself are mafia).

Final note. If you havea read through QoH posts you may also have quesries about his postivity for the town. He reads anti-town to me, and is currently my number one target. There are,admittedly, a few mitigating and circumstantial pieces of evidence, but given the little evidence against other townies, I see this as the biggest lead I have seen so far, though I am interested in getting a look at other suspects.

Final final thought. If Ythill is correct about only having one SK/VIG (but probably SK) I believe it unwise to speculate on the vig/SK identity. Doing so will only give mafia further evidence and advantage. Any thoughts on this as I am posting when I am slightly drunk and not thinking completely.

Okay good night all.

ps. OASIS were amazing!

[Kieraen]

Mod can you fix my quote in previous post?

[Kieraen]

The suspicion was merely a joke. Your low on my suspicion-o-meter Ythill (probably lowest).

The 1:3:8 ratio sounds fair, but so does a 4:9 with one vig ratio (if the Vig has for some reason not claimed).

@Q21. Lol damn alcohol! So it was a typo. I meant to type House of Cards, but Queen of Hearts stuck in my head due to the similai theme and alcohol.

The post was actualy a comment on House of cards lack of argument, suspicion at me (and others) without clarification, and general uselessness to the town.

Q21, I have little read on you so far, and Im not sure about Queen of hearts either. When I feel less hungover I will try and do a player by player suspect list or at very least claim my top two suspects.

I am however a little dubious with claiming two suspects now, as if Ythill is correct with his mafia numbers then it will mean every townie has at least one non-mafia role in his suspect list. This will make it easier for the mafia to guide our votes.

Hmm for now should we all post our top suspect? I will do so later tonnight.

[Kieraen]

I trust your analysis (you havent put a foot wrong in my eyes Ythill), so all I can say is bring on the attack.

With regards to Ting I have nothing more than a feeling and as yet no evidence (however I have only reread so far q21, Ythill and HoC). I would say that the L-2 mistake is interesting, however I made a similair mistake in another game and was almost lynched as a result. However mine didn't result in a lynch.

My main gripe with it was that it helped MM to lynch a townie. When MM flipped town, my MM/Ting theory blew out the water.

However I don't like his changing theories on my alegiance especialy early game. Townie/mafia/townie, and then later claiming he had always thought me townie. If he were mafia, I would suspect this would be pushing for a lynch when I look townie and calling me townie when Im likely to flip. I'll post quotes tomorrow.

[Kieraen]

yes. just making a lighthearted statement. i suppose i should trust a little less easily considering your track record.

[Kieraen]

kier wrote:
However I don't like his changing theories on my alegiance especialy early game. Townie/mafia/townie, and then later claiming he had always thought me townie. If he were mafia, I would suspect this would be pushing for a lynch when I look townie and calling me townie when Im likely to flip. I'll post quotes tomorrow.

You're clearly not reading my posts at all.

ting - all the way in day one wrote:
@kier.
I've honestly had you pegged as town since the day started. From my point of view though, how many likely interpretations can you think of for Reecer's post 108?

Obviously, I take back my accusations if Reecer flips town, but I'm really doubtful of that happening.

And then after reecer flipped town:
ting - to MM wrote:
Since reecer has somehow flipped town though, and you and kier are no longer implicated, I'm obviously back to square zero. I honestly didn't expect reecer to flip town. I doubt anyone did.

ting wrote:
I've stated my opinions on Kier before already. I thought he was very pro-town early game. Reecer made posts that incriminated him, which made me think he was scum. Since reecer's not scum, I'm back to thinking he's town.

These are the quotes that led me thinking you changed your minds on me. Bolded is the point I had missed.

I'm still looking at HoC as the least useful of townies.

[Kieraen]

Can you fix my quote mod?

[Kieraen]

I think the only one we can truely eliminate is Q21 and ting.
I don't believe HoC's abcenses. He is here less often than he is here, claiming computer repairs to illness. I think he's lurking. I'm gonna check his activity.
However, a benefit of the doubt might be advisable, as he could be that unlucky. I would like to hear from him soon though.

Where are the other players?

[Kieraen]

nope Im just a poor typer. I try to check my posts but Im far to impatient. Hence the spelling mistake in the second quote.
Ill try harder to make my thoughts clear.

[Kieraen]

when?

VOTE:HOUSEOFCARDS

[Kieraen]

I thought he said that yesterday.

Okay, fair point.

UNVOTE

[Kieraen]

VOTE HOUSEOFCARDS

I have stated my reasons, and now thinking he is lieing scum.

[Kieraen]

I'm really stuck here.

What happens if HoC is Vig/SK. Thats also instant lose isn't it?

I'm willing to go through on a TING lynch after rereading some YTHILL's comments. I think we have a strong case against him, when considering the nature of the day one lynch.

I suspect that HoC is still playing some sort of lurking game (or is just utterly bored of the game...), and would make a good tomorrow target. Hopefully by then he will have posted something of use.

There is also room for analysis here on patterns of suspicion.

Me and qwints have both voted HoC. Possible scum teaming up against a likely SK/VIG?
While Q21 and YTHILL have been against such play, in favour of a TING lynch (I am assuming). I don't see much in this as a mafia would be hoping for a SK/VIG hit tonight. We have already disproved TING's SK/VIG role by his block on night one from MONKEYMAN.
------------------------------------------------------------

To be honest, after a little thought, I'm looking now at:
1) TING = mafia,
2) not much information to gather,
3) a silent TING and
4) a group consensus between me, QWINTS, YTHILL and Q21 on lynching TING). (tell me if I'm wrong).

I think we give TING two more days to respond, or continue with a lynch (I see little point in waiting for a replacement at this stage, if he has flaked).

any thoughts?

[Kieraen]

You his scumbuddy...?

[Kieraen]

Who's scumbuddy? ting or HoC?

why don't you tell us?

[Kieraen]

I thought he was a good choice, and was particularly annoyed by his lack of posting. I have been a strong attacker of HoC. My vote against him was angry, semi intent to lynch and semi pressure vote. But....

The latest qwints vote is interesting though, considering that it's early in the day and we all seemed to agree that care should be taken with the vote today. If qwints, HoC, and Kier are all non-mafia, this game is about to end. Personally, I'd like to come to a solid determination about Ting before we move to lynch anyone. I think there's a good chance he's mafia. HoC might be mafia, but he might just be a flake.

stopped me tunnelling. I had forgotten the arguments made against TING not least by me. I think we have a better chance with someone who has just started flaking now (TING) than someone who has been a consistant flaker.

[Kieraen]

Nope, sk could still hit mafia.
Cross kill means 2 townies, 1 mafia (LYLO)
Two townies killed means 2 mafia, 1 sk (mafia win).
1 mafia, 1 town killed means 1 mafia, 1 townie, 1 sk
1 sk, 1 town killed means 2 mafia, 1 town (mafia win)

Lets expand the maths...

There are 3 kills by tomorrow right, with one VIG/SK, one lynch and one mafia so.
---

1) TOWN lynchs: town
NK kills:town
MAFIA kills:town
---
result: 2 mafia, 1 nk--

MAFIA

win

2) TOWN: town
NK: town
MAFIA: NK

result: 1 mafia, 2 town
---
3) TOWN: town
NK: Mafia
Mafia: town

result: 1 town, mafia and NK
---
4) TOWN: town
NK: mafia
Mafia: SK

result: 2 town, 1 mafia
---

5) TOWN: NK
mafia: Town

result: 2 town, 2 mafia.

MAFIA

wins

---
6) TOWN: mafia
NK: Mafia
Mafia: Town

result: 1 NK, 2 town
---

7) TOWN: mafia
NK: mafia
Mafia: NK

result: 3 town,

TOWN

wins

---
8) TOWN: Mafia
NK: mafia
Mafia: Town

result: 1 NK, 2 town
---
9) TOWN: mafia
NK: town
Mafia: town

result: 1 Town, mafia, NK
---
10)TOWN: mafia
NK: town
Mafia: NK

result: 2 town, 1 mafia
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This obviously discounts:
1) mafia and NK targeting the same townie
2) MOD's priority in kill order.


Essentialy (with very elimentary odds):

town has a 10% chance of winning by tomorrow,

Mafia have a 20% chance,

NK has 50% chance of being alive (however 10% that he loses anyway).

[Kieraen]

Qwints I don't think I understand this double negative. Can you clarify:

There is no mafia member not voting who is willing to vote for HoC.

[Kieraen]

Oops I thought thex could but forgot about the lynch. Just counted the NK and mafia targettingh each other.

Oh bugger.

With regards to posting the end game situations, yeah it was a fluff post. I just wanted to know what we need to do, i missed the maths earlier on.

[Kieraen]

It annoys me that the current two biggest suspects probably need replacing.

Thats why we are talking theory!

[Kieraen]

I know I have Meta'd HoC already, and I doubt that TING is a flaker, he seemed to know what he was on about. Unfortunetly, my point was, it leaves us with little to discuss.

[Kieraen]

Thanks Mod

[Kieraen]

hmm. I was willing to vote a litle while ago. I too am enjoying the game. But for now I'll wait on that vote. I think the most important thing to have now is consensus.

[Kieraen]

Yeah it was Ting I meant though I think he is probaby scum partners with HoC.

If Ythill, qwints or Q21 are mafia members I don't see them slipping up now.

I am willing to throw caution ´to the wind and see what happens. Not to dangerous though as we all need to vote, so if you have an objection (thats mainly to Ythill) say so now.

[Kieraen]

oops forgot vote

Unvote, Vote TING

[Kieraen]

he's at l-2 surely? We need a majority therfore we need 4 votes from 6, not 3 votes.

We need all active players (kieraen, ythill qwints and q21) to vote for a lynch.

[Kieraen]

I'm glad I caught HoC. He was clear mafia in my eyes. I did want to get mafia so when we got TING it was pretty dissapointing.

Yeah the SK thing I didn't know who to blaim. The 12 shoot was random. He was quiet and maybe subconciously I was shooting for scum, but I was just trying to stay out of the limelight.

Night two I realised I would only win shooting fot scum. So I firmly aimed my sights at Prof Guppy. This was near endgame for me. I needed to get a scummer. Prof Guppy also looked guilty as sin, so I could have thrown the blame of SK at him.

Night 3 was double bluff. I thought Ythill was planting the ideaof non mafia affiliation in my mind by constantly calling Hoc on it. If he was mafia he was the only one guaranteed to kill me as well.

Good game, I need to work on my Serial Killing game though.