Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Oh, I read the game, I just find that kind of question helpful. I find people who've been here for a while tend to have a different perspective on what happened than a replacement.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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The above post seems to indicate we are collectively tunnel-vision'd into "Macavity and MM are arguing, therefore exactly one of them are scum". This is not a good thing.
Macavity seems townish to me; what is the case against MM?Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Irony.Unvote,vote:StrangerCoug.
Llamafluff, who are Apocs buddies? Why's he more deserving of your vote than SC?
SC is that scummy? Also, scum are that blatant? You seem to be a human echo, at the moment - why is that?Zeppo007 wrote:MM - just for the reason that SC came to her defense.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Dear god, the fact StrangerCoug is still breathing pains me.
I have no idea, either. It's ridiculous.Apothecary wrote:I don't see why this is arousing this much angst and suspicion.
Apoth is fine. Explain yourself.Cephrir wrote:In other news, Apoth is imploding.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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The idea that (dumb) townies fakeclaim is not really scummy to my mind. What I missed is that he previously agreed with LlamaFluff's post on SC. What's changed, Apoth? What's your current view on SC's alignment, and why?Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Why do you say that about Zeppo? I can think of a number of reason he'd be doing that as scum, and he seems scummy to me. You seem to write him off as town for no apparent reason, here. Why is that? Where has he been "quite analytical" of posts, and what does that fact tell us about him?Apothecary wrote:I do think Zeppo is breathing a little much into SC coming to MM's defense.But he's just searching for any tells that might help further the game. He's also quite analytical of posts at times.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Apothecary: What you thought is noted. More important, right now, iswhyyou thought it. Why - as in, whatreasonsdid you have - did you think he was scum? How have your reasons changed, and why?
Anything predicated on SC-scum is clearly made of win and correctness.
Hi, Jazz! You're scum, right?Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Apothecary: ..reasons, monsieur?
Atlas's avatar seems very pro-town to me. Where is Mitey? I don't remember seeing anything damning, but there's a lot of fluff in her posting. Worse, it occurs that she makes a good buddy for SC, who is scum. Hmm. Mitey, who's scum?
I also feel the rumblings of a Jazzmyn wagon deep in my stomach.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Apothecary: On why you thought SC was town after agreeing with LlamaFluff's post on him. I believe you said you thought he was scum, and you seem to have changed your mind, and I'd like a solid reason as to why.
StrangerCoug: I'm not worried about it. That was meant to indicate that I was considering pushing for it.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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(time passes)Apothecary wrote:after reading through that post, I do believe that SC is scum
You seem to say what you believe clearly, in both places. Not that it's possible, but "I don't believe he's scum".Apothecary wrote:I don't believe SC's claim. But I don't believe he's a scum either
Do youcurrentlybelieve SC is scum? Why?Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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When you wrote this, did you believe that SC was not scum? I assume yes; if not, please spell it out for me. Assuming yes: Why did you think he was town, at that point, when you thought he was scum before?Apothecary wrote:I don't believe SC's claim. But I don't believe he's a scum either
I feel like maybe I should be looking closer at Ythill - Llama. Can one of you sum it up in a paragraph?Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Oh, okay. Sorry, happens.Jazzmyn wrote:
Wrong.Elmo wrote:Hi, Jazz! You’re scum, right?
It occurs to me that I don't think Mitey ever said anything about SC. Or, like, anything relevant. Turns out it's not hard to avoid doing suspicious things if you don't ever do anything.
Feels like I'm in a time warp, I just came round to ^ this viewpoint. #3 is liable to be.. Apoth or Ythill? I am not really too hot on LF's thing, but then I haven't really read it properly.Atlas wrote:One of the mafia is Mitey, and her buddy is looking to be Cougar right now. Not just because both of them are scummy, but some buddy-tellish actions. Specifically Mitey "following" Cougar on Cephir/Evilgorrilaz and a bit of coaching to Mitey.
I have an unholy number of town reads at this point. Irritatingly. We should probably be lynching one of Apothecary or MiteyMouse, based on how Apoth responds and if MM ever starts doing stuff.
*goes back to playing chess and being lazy and just skimming the game, woo*Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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LF: Ythill's stance looks daft to me, from what I recall.
In what dialect is "we should probably lynch one of these two people today" wishy-washy?Ythill wrote:Elmo's #470 exemplifies the phrase wishy-washy.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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As per sig, my computer is screwed up for a while. Sorry. Off the top of my head:
* I have no idea why having multiple suspects is supposed to be "wishy-washy". We are looking for more than one scumbag, obviously? If one played perfectly, you'd just say "these x people are scum".
* I haven't contradicted myself. "Yhill's stance is daft" does not contradict "I'm not too hot on LF's case against Yhill , but then I haven't read it fully".
I am arbitrarily going to make a list, since Yhill called me wishy-washy.
MacavityLock - town
Corvuus - town
Jazzmyn - town
Atlas - town
LLamaFluff - townish (probably higher if he wasn't good scum)
Cephrir - somewhat townish
~~~ WAGON BELOW HERE ~~~
Ythill - at least somewhat scummy, needs more readin'
Apothecary - scummy or just odd depending on response
~~~ DAYVIG BELOW HERE ~~~
MiteyMouse - scummy
StrangerCoug - scum
The way SC+Yhill appear to be flocking together against LF reinforces my belief. LF is probably town independently. I disagree with what Yhill said about LF to the extent I have read it; Yhill is somewhere between daft and scummy based on that alone. I am not 110% convinced by what LF wrote in response off-hand, there may be something in it, but again I haven't read it enough to be all DIESCUMDIE to Yhill if there is.
Sidenote that comes to mind. LF, I know exactly the feeling that no-one is listening, and it sucks. Which is why I felt guilty and planned to reread soon. But then shit happened, so it'll be a little longer. Erp.
I am actually going tovote:MiteyMouseagain, as encouragment for her to comment on the meat of the game. She seems to keep sniping at side issues (like Cephrir not reading fully) rather than actually get her hands dirty with something relevant like Apothecary or LF-Yhill. That behaviour tends to be a favourite of scum trying to stay out of the way. We should wagon her until at least she shows some sign of getting into the thick of it. No, this does not mean I have forgotten about Apothecary, merely that I am capable of doing more than one thing at a time.
Also, condolances, Jazz.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Apothecary seems to be getting a disproportionate amount of flak for what he actually did. The only thing I found interesting was his contradiction with respect to SC. His stance on claims is mixed up, lots of newbies bring up No Lynch, the "misrepresentation" looks more like misinterpretation to me, "not making sense" is not a scumtell, etc. I dislike this situation, because (from my point of view) he could still flip scum fairly easily, but nonetheless I don't like the way this wagon's going, and feel a need to state that.
I also really don't like the timing of qwint's vote. Comes in, here are my initial impressions on a quick read through, now let me put someone at L-1 seven hours later with an epicly weak reason. That's pretty opportunistic, at best; I could easily see a scumbag coming in and trying to push through the easy lynch. 541 is a pretty terrible reason for a vote, even in isolation.
No way, active lurker >>> claimed vanilla. She isCephrir wrote:If I had to pick Apoth or MM for scum in a void I think I'd go for MM, but now that Apoth has claimed vanilla it's probably best to lynch him.dyingfor a wagon.
Ishouldget read up within a couple days now, unless something else goes wrong with my computer.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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It takes four votes to lynch at deadline, so anyone who would actually prefer MM being lynched and isn't currently voting Apoth should feel free to vote her. For example, Cephrir.
I remember skimming through her posts, looking for her stance on Apothecary and LlamaFluff - Ythill. They're not there; realising that, I looked again, and she doesn't seem to have taken a noticable stance on any of the central issues of the game, the recent "Cephrir isn't fully reading" being a prime example of the kind of "sideline" issue she seems to have concentrated on. Go look. It's the perfect way for scum to look active while avoiding scrutiny. (Proviso, I'm going from memory here, but that's my impression.)qwints wrote:I find it interesting that you're calling MM an active lurker. I read through his posts and didn't see many posts that screamed lurker.
I don't really get The Scum Vibe from Apoth, although it's hard to tell - he's pretty mixed up. But I prefer at least attempting to wagon MM, right now.
I am heinously behind and have not reread LlamaFluff - Ythill. I'll try and do that before Day 2 dawns. I still think the scumgroup is some varient of {SC, MM} + one of {Ythill, Apoth}, with Ythill somewhat more likely. I don't like the disinterest in the L-1 vote; feels like you've been waiting to do that rather than really trying to get him to convince you.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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I can't remember what part of this I already said. Lurking is not posting, with the effect of depriving the town of information, since there's nothing to analyse. Active lurking is posting, but posting things that result in a similar effect; an extreme example would be someone who only posted to comment on theory debates about WIFOM. They're posting, but it isn't doing any good. More generally, scum generally want to avoid having to Do Stuff, because it increases the chances of them slipping up. The best example that comes to mind is probably Patrick in Open 54, who spent most of day 1 questioning.. I think it was wank about something completely tangental.
Active lurking is not directly related to lurking, in my mind. Lurking can be disinterest, RL issues, etc. Active lurking comes from a definite intent to skate around having to genuinely scumhunt, and is always scummy. If someone's town and remotely trying to win, they'll be genuinely hunting scum, and there'll be fairly obvious evidence of that in-thread. Scum can try and fake it, and some do so very sucessfully, but peoplenot doing itare very likely to be scum.
Again, it's the absence of scumhunting, the "coasting" vibe, rather than some lack of activity that I take issue with. She is trying to look like she's doing stuff rather thanactuallydoing stuff. For example, stating she's suspicious of Cephrir and thennot doing anything about itis a tell. Has she pressured him, made a case in an attempt to start a wagon, asked him incisive questions to try and further figure out his alignment? No, just flatly stated that. And it seems to be working.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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OMFG ELMO IS ONTO MEEE !!!Huntress wrote:MiteyMouse has asked for a replacement. I am looking for one now.
Proof that SC is an evil villain here. I guess that makes Apothecary the valiant hero of the piece.
I should totally be more helpful, but my head is killing me.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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I am around and will move my vote sometime soon. In fact,unvote, vote StrangerCoug.
I'm just continually depressed by the way scum always get away with fakeclaiming day 1. This may not be the optimal vote, but I feel entitled to a little irrationality now and again. And it'll feel a hell of a lot better to get a scum lynch then I'll feel annoyed if we lynch the doc, when they played like that.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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p.s. That is lynch - 1.
Unofficial vote count:
Apothecary 4 - (StrangerCoug, MacavityLock, Corvuus, Ythill)
StrangerCoug 5 - (OhGodMyLife, Qwints, LLamaFluff, Cephrir, Elmo)
Not voting 2 - (Apothecary, Jazzmyn)
4 at deadline, 6 before.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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I never got around to reading Ythill - LF. See? Laziness pays off! (Okay, I thought LF would be the one dying, but still.)
Either a) the scum got some power tell off him or b) a kill was blocked and he was killed by a third party. A SK would probably be wanted to hit town with the mafia getting kerb stomped D1, so I tend towards a vig. Hence, discussion of the kill should probably stop now. Don't see us getting much from it even if it was a scumkill.
OGML, Mac is prob town imo. Cephrir I am more vague about. I will read whatever you dig up.
One thing I should actually do is go back and look at that wagon. There is a very short list of roles that mafia should be risking outing themselves to keep alive a little longer, and mafia RB is at the absolute top of that. Hence, bussing out the mafia RB on day 1 takes at least some serious cajones, and is probably just a stupid move in any setup.-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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If there was more than one mafia group, they would have a family identifier, like "Russian Mafia Roleblocker" or something. I'd take this as pretty much confirming we only have a single mafia group. Not sure how more than that is going to work in a mini normal of 11 players, anyway.Huntress wrote:Dead:
StrangerCoug(Mafia Roleblocker)lynched Day One-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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And why do you assume that qwints does not? It looks like when you do it, it's helpful because you have a reason; when someone does it to you, it's unhelpful. That's roughly what you've said. Yes?Cephrir wrote:Yeah, but I had a reason.
Ceph, what do you think are the strongest reasons to believe Apoth is scum?-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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I'm in the irritating position of having Cephrir top of the list of people I would happily wagon, while this wagon smells kinda scum-driven. I can't currently think of anyone better to lynch, but I want reasons before we end the day, at minimum. qwints getting on a probable lynching wagon with "you're not helpful" exemplifies things that make me uneasy.
Qwints, what are your strongest couple of reasons for voting Cephrir?
Jazz, what was it that you twigged in 736?
Corvuus - please think of an insightful question that I could ask you about Cephrir and answer it.-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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This is why I stopped doing that.Jazzmyn wrote:I came back last night after Christmas shopping and wrapping presents, and started to re-read the thread very carefully from the beginning. I got through the first 17 pages and then, literally, fell asleep at my desk exhausted, only to wake up in the middle of the night to toddle off to bed before continuing my shopping and wrapping today.-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Ceph, being :nothelpful: because you'll be lynched anyway is a self-fulfilling prophesy. It can't possibly hurt you if you're town.
I'm not convinced you're scum, for the record, but I have no strong reason to believe you're town, and I've been bitten by defending scum I'm not sure about before. And everyone else is at least trying to seem helpful and townish; who do you propose we lynch instead of you?
Looking at the SC wagon, I have this disquieting feeling that he was nonetheless bussed by at least one buddy. I think perhaps the mafioso in question felt that it would be far too obvious in later days if they didn't go with it. Hmm.
LF, why do you think Macavity's scum(my)? What's your opinion of Atlas - not the role i.e. Qwints, the posts made by the player Atlas previously? Also.. why llama fluff?
Jazz, what specific reasons for lynching Cephrir do you agree with? 759 seems pretty weak, especially when this wagon's gone awfully fast. If Ceph flipped town, do you think there are scum on the wagon? If I told you for certain there were, who would you suspect?
I would like to second LlamaFluff's "just a piece missing" feeling. Hmm.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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One thing to bear in mind is that considering SC was bussed (and I am just going to assume this, because I find it bemusing if he wasn't) then the scum generally have a ready-made plan to push the mislynch of anyone who was less enthusiastic than them. That doesn't mean I suspect OGML for pushing the wagon (town is also going to be looking for links to dead scum) but I feel scum would be flocking to this if Ceph was town. Hence, reasons. If we do lynch CephScum then we're in a very strong position anyway, so let's think about getting information to use on later days if he's town. I feel especially Jazz and qwints have joined this wagon with no-one really scrutinising their reasons.
I'm also pretty sure I have far too many town reads at this point. Part of the problem is that Cephrir is top of my list by virtue of being "least townish" rather than anything really suspicious. So while I'm queasy about this wagon, I don't have a better alternative, and honestly the :nothelpful: makes me struggle to care that deeply. But I still have the "this smells of mislynch" feeling.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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qwints, you gave three reasons why you suspected Cephrir. He argued against three of them, and you responded to one. Your point was that he backed off Primate, yet in the post you just quoted, he clearly gives a reason for unvoting. Your reasons seem alarmingly weak to me.
I want you to explain why the specific instance of him voting without a reason is scummy.qwints wrote:1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction
2) Pulled an about face on Primate
3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration
I want to to show what specifically about #2 is scummy.
I want you to show examples of #3.
If I remember correctly, part of the stated case against him was his OGML vote. Why is his unvoting OGML scummy?qwints wrote:His refusal to defend and unvote of OGML are further evidence for me.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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I don't think Ceph is scum. I don't strongly think he's town, either, and I can't bring myself to defend the :nothelpful:, and I don't really have a better lynch lined up. But qwints can expect a grilling tomorrow from me if Ceph flips town (I imagine I've made the point by now). That said, I don't see this day going anywhere else, so I don't object to ending the day.
I also have this question mark about LF. I am curious why (going from memory) you said ML going back to Apoth is a "huge black mark" against him, it doesn't strike me as scummy rather than a disagreement with you. This is moreso because I think he's quite likely town.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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I agree that Apoc is less likely to be scum because of SC's interactions with him, but I don't see why ML's suspicion "feels wrong" as opposed to a townie being misguided. It seemed quite natural, from what I recall, not like he dived into it... what specifically do you think he's less likely to have done if he were town?Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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I what what the what? Are you confusing me with OGML?Apothecary wrote:Elmo... He's been a strong pusher for the Ceph wagon. I don't think he's scum, but I strongly disliked the wagon.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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The only thing making me hestitate over pushing for a qwints lynch is the pretty town vibe I got from Atlas; having said that, it was pretty much just a vague impression I got, I want to go back and reread.. but my computer just died on me, so . It'd be good if people who haven't done so (I can only remember LF commenting) would give their opinon of Atlas and maybe qwints, especially his reasons for Ceph vote.
I do currently think that if Ceph is town, then there's probably scum in {Qwints, Jazzmyn}, and I'm increasingly leaning towards CephTown the longer this wagon goes on, though. Also, I keep thinking that this is no majority no lynch for some reason, the actual deadline mechanics mean that a non-Ceph wagon doesn't need that many other votes to go places. So what I said about this probably ending in a Ceph lynch anyway is not quite right. Hmm.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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It's more like, the longer it goes on, the more reactions we get from him and other people. Pretty much all the reactions to his wagon have moved me in the direction of CephTown.
The biggest thing is that currently, pretty much everyone wants a Ceph lynch. Literally the only vote elsewhere has been ML on Apoth, and I seriously doubt that's a calculated scum vote because it'd be staggeringly obvious to a scum-ML that an Apoth wagon wouldn't build, at least today. And he's been pretty consistent, even after that's obvious to him. So basically, we can say that some scum are among everyone, and everyone wants Ceph lynched; as such, the scum wants (or are at least fine with) a Ceph lynch. I'm pretty sure that e.g. qwints and Jazzmyn are good with a Ceph lynch regardless of their actual alignment, now. And deductively, if the scum wanted Ceph not to be lynched, then they'd usually start a wagon on someone else.
Now, the scum voting block has been "diluted" quite a bit (sketch numbers, they've lost a third, we've lost an eighth) and if Ceph's scum, then logically he's probably only got one buddy, so they might be a bit constrained in what they could do. But there is just this complete lack of anyone else trying to get some action going that really bugs me. I think they have a third, and I think they'd try.
That.. aaand I've always thought Ceph was a bit townish, it's just that the margin of error isn't huge because he's (in my perception) not very pro-town when he is town, and for quite a while he didn't do a huge amount. I generally won't defend anyone that I don't have a fairly strong town read on, simply because sometimes shitty wagons form on scum; if you say "hey that's a shitty wagon" even when it is, it looks scummy afterwards in a way that's very difficult to defend against and tends to get you lynched. He's been somewhat more townish since his wagon started, in my opinion.
That, and Ceph seems to be being wagoned by process of elimination; that is, I don't know who else I'd want to lynch (at least before the Ceph wagon) because everyone looks fairly town. I suspect at least one scumbag is good scum, e.g. Jazz/LF, actually. I don't think he's looked scummy, personally, just not very pro-town; my experience is he doesn't try very hard to actually look townish. From that perspective, I don't find it hugely appealing, and actually I dislike those kinds of lynches. If it's a mislynch, everyone just sorta shrugs their shoulders and goes "meh" afterwards.Succinctness is pro-town.
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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The fact that there was only the one kill means very probably we only have one killing group, the mafia, which means very probably scum had some motive to kill off Ythill on night 1. That's weird, because he looked like a prime day 2 mislynch. This bugs me. (I will whack people thinking nightkill speculation is a scumtell with an MD post if necessary.)
I will not bother reciting everything I said yesterday andvote qwintsfor the present. I would like a detailed explanation of why Cephrir was supposed to be scum. Also curious on Jazzmyn's views.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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I'm gonnaunvote.. I don't like what I remember of qwints, but that was a pressure-y vote rather than a "die plz" one. I'm not entirely happy leaving it there when I basically haven't talked to him much, and still haven't really talked to Jazzmyn when I'm not wild about some of her reasoning either. (How is the illness, Jazz?)
I approve (in theory terms) of qwints' attitude to claiming.. you can consider me as not asking you to claim right now, though obviously I might do so later.
I have persistent bad vibes from LF. Some of that is his interactions with ML; I was in a game with ML that's now finished, where he was scum and I was town, and his play seems different here. (There was a particular mechanic that made me misread him early game there, though.) I suppose that's fairly dependent on ML's alignment, but LF's comment about "hammer if needed" reads like stretching to me. Hrm.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Hi. Stuff happened, I won't bore you all, I'm mostly back now. I have the beginnings of an actual post saved someplace, I'll get back into this tomorrow; just saying that I'm still alive, really. =PSuccinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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I'm having that thing where I've been away from the game for ages and now I have difficulty getting back into the swing of things. I am "back" but have just neglected to do anything today.
This much is interesting. I'm cagey about arguments that revolve around peopleJazzmyn wrote:I am still suspicious of MacavityLock, primarily because of the complete lack of interaction between him and StrangerCougar on Day 1.notdoing something, but given SC's play, I would have thought at least something would have happened if ML was huntin' for real. Bear in mind I am basically taking your word for it, it must be literally months since I reread that section of the game. My gut is stubbornly giving me a fairly town read on him, but I'd be interested in what he has to say about this specific point.
In other news.. see, I don'tthinkApoth is scum, but you have to correctly weigh things in mafia. I think SC's behaviour is a good sign, but I'm not prepared to let Apoth coast along without scrutiny indefinitely because of it. So I think we're getting too close to deadline to bother with really grilling him, but I'd /agree with someone (Jazz?) who said that we need to get him more "into it" and try and read his play directly, rather than playing WIFOM with dead scum. 'cuz his actual play I'm really don't know about, and I'd be nervous if we got to LyLo without moar from him. Actually, we're in LyLo tomorrow with 3 scum and a mislynch today. Crap. Oh well.
One thing I dislike is LF's stance on qwints. He said "oh the WIFOM" which seems an easy way out of taking a stance on qwints' actual behaviour... he'd look okay later regardless of qwints alignment. Also, painting ML as possible scum with Corvuus is pretty fail, Corvuus is obviously pro-town and I can't see any linkage between the two offhand. I'm not really in a position to make a case for it, but the bad vibes have reached the point where I'd be happy with a LF lynch, actually.
I don't have a lot to add to what other people said about qwints. I (twitch) need to reread but at least on first glance, I hafta agree with what Jazz posted about his hypothetical 'viewpoint' of SC. You can say it'spossiblethat SC was bussing, but I can't see why it's supposed to be likely.
The big thing on my mind is the nightkills. qwints claiming to not protect OGML is pretty bad, he was obviously the one to protect to the extent that a big question in my mind is why the mafia even bothered targeting him. One conspiracy theory would be that LF's comment about Jazzmyn being "obv town" near the end of yesterday was designed to try and make the doc protect her instead of OGML, so they could kill him at night. That remark stuck in my head because it seemed somehow out of place. That and Ythill's death still puzzles me.
Muh. Maybe more tomorrow. I'm tempted to throw out a vote, but I'll refrain for now. /zzzSuccinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Oh. I missed something:
Why? I mean, what convinced you? A while back, I said I found your stated reasons weak, at the time; do you disagree?Jazzmyn wrote:I still think that OGML's case on Cephrir stands upSuccinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Nightkills still weird me out. I'd like more input, I feel like I'm missing something obvious. Why would you target the obv protected townie unless you knew/suspected he wouldn't be protected? So how'd they know he wouldn't be protected?
They didn't, they thought he was the doc. Ah. That's understandable. So why n2 and not n1? And why do you want to off Ythill? Meh. :/
As to qwints, I don't think I'll really make my mind up without a Jazz-style epic rereading spree. I do likesomethingabout his recent responses, though. If for some reason we didn't lynch qwints today, who would people go for? (This is mostly so we don't get de facto locked into one lynch.)Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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This game is pretty quiet. Hrm.
You've got MM playing a very conservative, stay-out-of-the-limelight game (indeed because she was actually a power role, just not a doc), followed by OGML replacing in and immediately pushing very, very hard for the lynch of a claimed doc with no stated supporting reasons.
One way that makes sense is if LF is scum, since Ythill was the only person suspicious of him and his life is hassle-free since then. Even if Ythill's case was wrong, scum sometimes really do get lynched for the wrong reasons, and having scrutiny on you is a priori bad. This isn't a good reason to suspect LF, though, because it could just be something totally different that I haven't thought of, but honestly either him or Atlas (i.e. qwints) being scum have been on my mind since I saw the kill.Corvuus wrote:I still don't see why Ythill was targeted unless he somehow breadcrumbed his watcher role.
I'm serious about examining lynches other than qwints, he's basically the de facto lynch at this point, and I don't want a scramble at deadline if we decide not to lynch him.
I could well be WIFOMing myself here, but it's possible that SC saw his lynch coming and wanted to go down "reverse bussing", if that makes sense. It's unlikely, but it gives me the willies. I wish Apoth felt more townish, really.
I still need to reread and the lack of that getting done is beginning to irritate me. I'll probably throw a vote out tomorrow.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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vote LlamaFluff
952 stinks. You're saying you think he's town, but not actually trying to stop him being lynched; focussing on his claim without interacting at all with the case against him is the perfect way to set yourself up for "I told you so" tomorrow. (If qwints is scum, then it's obviously outright awful.)Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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ML: I thought I posted this, I remember typing it. Bah. Basically, in a scumchat game something weird happened, and I figured I was probably getting lynched regardless, so I spent all the day attacking my scumbuddy, who went on to win in endgame. It's kind of like bussing in reverse, because it's me who gets lynched instead of him.
See, it doesn't make as much sense here, because I wouldn't have put Apoth's odds of going all the way very high considering day 1. But a problem I've always had is that sometimes scum do stuff that doesn't make any sense, even after the game. If SC was scum with Apoth, then if he gets lynched, then Apoth looks better, and vice versa; the meta on this site is such that scum will sometimes just reflex-bus without really thinking it through.
tl;dr - SC might have seen he'd be lynched and attack Apoth precisely coz of that.
I don't think it's highly likely, but it's a viable possibility, and the number of town reads I have gives me pause.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Shoulda hit submit on this a while ago, bad habit. Was made before 962 was posted. Hi, Jazz, I'm amused by our overlapping suspect lists.
This doesn't make any sense. If Qwints is town, then Qwints is 100% sure that Qwints is town. Even if hypothetically Qwints was 90% sure that MacavityLock was town, he should still prefer to lynch MacavityLock than lynch Qwints, since there's a 10% chance of lynching scum vs. a 0% chance. Seriously, this is a bad post - provide a better reason for keeping your vote on Qwints, post-haste.Apothecary wrote:Qwints, I'm not liking how you seem to be jumping from person to person. First off, you put a lot of pressure on me and then, seemingly out of nowhere, jump onto MacavityLock. After less than a page later, you switch your vote to LlamaFluff. I know you claimed you would push a wagon on him if there was support, but jeez... Right now, I feel my vote is vindicated.
Something really really puts me off a qwints lynch. Not the claim itself. He just seems to be reacting townly, in particular switching his vote to LF instead of ML seems pro-town because there's been more support evidenced for ML, so that shows he's really thinking about who's more likely to be scum as opposed to just lynching someone other than him. I think a mafioso would be pushing ML right now. (Okay, it's technically possible that he's scum with ML, but I really don't think so.)
I am strongly opposed to a MacavityLock lynch, he's playing markedly differently from when I saw him as scum, and I haven't seen a semblance of a case against him. Corvuus is painfully obv town. I'm not 110% sold on Jazz, but she definitely seems at least townish, and I'd be real hesitant to lynch her unless something major came up. That don't leave too many people.
Unofficial vote count
Qwints (2) <- Apothecary, MacavityLock
LLamaFluff (2) <- Elmo, Qwints
MacavityLock <- LLamaFluff
Not voting: Jazzmyn, Corvuus
We only need 3 votes on someone to lynch at deadline, so two wagons with two votes each does not really phase me. Literally only one person needs to be around before deadline to ensure some kind of lynch.
Specifically, the above only leaves qwints, Apothecary, and LlamaFluff. I haven't reread enough to look at linkages between them, but nothing really jumps out at me. I have actually reread a little and it makes Atlas (= Qwints) look more town, Zeppo (= Jazzmyn) look more town, SwmintyLost (= LlamaFluff) look scummy. So, yeah, I really like a LlamaLynch today, actually.
Cannot believe my shift on qwints, but whatever, Atlas was pretty town.
Mod: I support a deadline extension, pretty please? Also, could you prod Jazz, and ensure she knows when the deadline is? Thanks.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Jazz: Mhh. I should probably read more but meta usually works quite well for me.
Atlas' response around SC is pretty much non-existent, he just goes pushing Ythill a bit. The thing is, in that situation, either you just straight-out counterclaim or you have to hide your role such that the mafia can't pick up on it. Otherwise you get the worst of both worlds, you get NKed that night but without getting scum lynched that day. So I can't reeeally fault him for that if he is a doc. qwints' first post ("1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones.") seems pretty consistent with what I'd expect from a doc. Herp.
StrangerCoug wrote:WHAT?!?
Major HoS: LlamaFluff
This makes me lol. He's stretching for reasons to be very obviously suspicious of LF, yea?StrangerCoug wrote:Well, I think anotherFoS: LlamaFluffis warranted anyway.
I will re-skim the ML thing tomorrow. /zzzSuccinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Hm, Jazz.. ML went for Apoth over SC. And he's consistently pushed Apoth as possible scum for a while now. The problem with saying he's scummy for that is that we don't know Apoth's alignment yet. If Apoth was known town, I would weigh it a bit less but I'd see what you're getting at; as it is, Apoth is on your list of suspects. I've had something like that happen to me; I pushed hard for the lynch of person A, while being "meh" about person B, and person B was lynched as scum. Then people were suspicious of me for pushing someone else over person B; of course, person A turned out to be scum as well.
From my POV:
# Jazz says ML had a complete lack of interaction with SC
# ML says "complete" is wrong
# Jazz says the general point still stands
I don't see anything suspicious in either, really. ML's objection seems reasonable, and Jazz's initial attack doesn't look like deliberate mischaracterisation. I do think he's answered the general point in 939 before he brought up "complete". I can't find your (Jazz) response to that.
I am more than willing to listen to arguments against people, but I just don't see a whole lot in ML's interactions (or not) with SC that would indicate he's scum. Yes, if he were scum (and Apoth was town), that's probably what he'd do, but there doesn't seem to be a strong reason to believe he wouldn't do that as town. Maybe I'm biased since I already see him as townish, maybe I'm missing something in your argument, whatever; I don't see it. :\
I would also like people to seriously reexamine their view of Apoth. I have not heard any real explanation of why SC was definitely not bussing him, and yet everyone seems to have taken it for granted. My position was never that he should be cleared permanently, but should live a bit longer than he otherwise might. If you remove SC's interactions with him, you're left with someone who actually looks pretty freaking scummy, for example his mysterious turnaround on whether SC was suspicious.Succinctness is pro-town.
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Hmm. 988 is real interesting. Certainly (assuming the reread checks out, and I think it will) I get the case against him, now, and I'm definitely wavering on him.. I asked ML a variant of this a while back, but I guess it bears asking again:
ML, why were you markedlylesssuspicious of SC than virtually everyone else was?Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Wow. I still have zero motivation. I feel like picking a name out of a hat.
# The thing with ML is he's not playing like he did in that other game. But there, there was a special mechanic, town didn't know they were town, so at the time I wrote off a bunch of his play that I'd normally have found scummy. It's possible he was only doing it there because he felt he could get away with it. Dunno.
# I remember being perturbed by a bunch of stuff Jazz posted but haven't reread it yet. Obv interested in what ML has to say.
# I still think the Cephrir wagon begged for scum to jump on somewhere. The problem is that I thought the whole thing was bad, so it's hard to figure out where people are just being opportunistic.
# TBQH I'd be real interested in saying hi to Apoth's replacement.
# What are we doing about claims? Apoth claimed townie, but we can't wait until near deadline for the others, and it seems whacky to have four people all claim without massclaiming. Might be optimal, but it's weird.
# Actually, considering we're in LyLo tomorrow with a mislynch, what do people think of a massclaim now? It seems a bit early, but tomorrow might be a bit late, if you see what I mean.Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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Oh, I missed that I was assuming three scum. I have to stop doing that, worst case is not the only case. Although I think if there are only two scum total, we have a pretty good shot anyway, so maybe it's worth the assumption.
Hmm. qwints, how many scum do you think there are?Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford-
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Elmo Mafia Scum
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