667: Random C9 (Game Over!)

[Sotty7]

Hi all. Currently about half way though the game. I have to step out and do some things, but I should be all caught up this evening, tomorrow at the latest.

[Sotty7]

Good! Maybe you can make more sense of this game than I can.

I think I fail at that. This game is hella confusing. Very interesting.... But confusing. Forgive the lateness of this post, I had to re-read portions of what I had already read to try and get a better feel. (Which was also prolonged by a couple gray screen of annoyance!)

On that point, I have a couple of questions.

No. He saw his lynch coming, saw he was going to have to back up his claim somehow, and breadcrumbed there in self-defense.

How does that change anything?
L-2 and rising would be a good time to think about how to dodge the noose. A claim would be a good way to do it; crumbs would be there to show that you've been meaning to claim eventually since... oh wait... you were put to L-2 and had incentive to claim to save your own skin. Crumbs are much more effective the earlier they are made, IMO.

'Mind if I give you some food for thought along these lines, just to speed this along a little?

I'm the Doctor

, and I protected Scheherazade last night. If nobody wants to counterclaim, and Scheherazade IS indeed a Town-side Cop, then charter and JDodge have giant targets on them. Unless someone wants to argue that kuribo/afatchic is the Godfather...

Why did you feel the need to claim here Vi? You weren't under any real pressure that I can see and when I read it just struck me as strange. You say in your response to the JDodge quote that Moo shoulda just claimed because breadcrumbing at L-2 is pretty weak. Isn't claiming unprovked equally as strange?

My guess is Vi-kuribo over Vi-charter. I

highly

doubt that Sche is scum. I think kuribo is more likely than charter based on the M-M kill last night, which indicates doc-hunting.

I can see your point about the MM kill being about "doc hunting" but can you explain why kuribo is more likely to do this than Charter?

The issue here being that we've narrowed it down to the following setups:

C9
Pie C9
Two of Four A7
Bird C9
Godfather C9

Out of these, I would make the following assumptions:

There is no mafia roleblocker. (Rules out Pie C9)
The mafia had some reason to not kill the cop.

NOW, if you're scum, you know the role of both yourself and your partner. In the case of C9, Two of Four, and Bird, there would be two goons. This also fits numerous setups sans doc, which means that the only logical play is to attempt to kill the cop.

However, if the scum has a GF, then they possess the knowledge that there is a cop, hence they know that if they attempt to kill the cop, they will almost certainly fail. Therefore, their only chance is to attempt to find the doc as soon as possible; this allows them to kill the cop, thus allowing them to stop the damage before it ruins them.

Therefore, I make the easy, logical assumption that this is indeed GF C9.

And furthermore, my pick for your partner is not setup-based insofar that I believe Sche's investigation damns kuribo; rather, it is based on my current opinion of whom I feel is best linked to you. Your rocky history with charter does not seem like distancing to me.

While the logic here is pretty sound, the ease at which you dismiss the other set ups and then settle on the Godfather setup makes me a little uneasy. While I agree that there probably isn't a mafia roleblocker, it doesn't mean that we aren't in a Two of Four A7 with the two being a cop and a doc. Vi at least doesn't seem to be ruling anything out, no matter how unlikely.

Also, how do you see kuribo linked with Vi?

I would also like to propose the following:

We lynch one of (kuribo, charter) today instead of one of (myself, Vi).

In so doing, we auto-win if we get it right. Otherwise, assuming a GF (which I still think is most likely), we have to make this sort of lylo decision

twice

instead of once. Thoughts?

This suggestion struck me as a good idea at first, but the more I think about it, the less I like it. Lets say we do lynch either kuribo or charter and we get it right. What happens then, if we

are

in the Godfather C9 like you suggest, when that player flips scum goon? This will quickly render the cop useless because there is only a Godfather out there.

I guess what I'm getting at JDodge is that I can see you being right about the Godfather C9 because you have the inside info by in fact being the Godfather. You move to quickly counterclaim Vi and then pitch this idea under the premise that if we do lynch right out of kuribo/charter then I can investigate you or Vi and we can win tomorrow. All the while knowing that you would turn up innocent.

I think it's jdodge + kuribo. Gotta do some rereading before voting though.

Also, I was thinking. It might make sense not to lynch jdodge/vi today. If we nail scum today that isn't them (and assuming sche is cop) then it's an autowin tomorrow. Of course this excludes the scenario that it's jdodge/vi, which I find very possible.

I'm not surprised that charter is the only other player wanting this to happen. I am surprised that he didn't just come out and say we should lynch kuribo because if we don't lynch one of the two claimed docs then it would be between charter and kuribo. I noticed how he just kinda skips round that point. Maybe because advocating a lynch of the player I have an innocent on looks bad even despite all the talk of a Godfather.

Again, I am almost entirely certain that this is GF C9. Which means there is a cop. No counter-claim means Sche is a cop. Sche being a cop means he is not scum. Sche not being scum means that by lynching one of charter/kuribo, we have a 50/50 shot as a town of lynching the correct one. I protect Sche, you can't kill me because that would expose you anyways (meaning you have to kill whichever of charter/kuribo is town). Sche investigates one of us. We lynch according to Sche's investigation. Town wins automatically.

Again, if you are certain why are you not mentioning that we might lynch the mafia goon leaving the mafia godfather alive and rendering my investigation useless?

Also, I never said anything about there being a Vi-kuribo and JD-charter line. I said solely that there were two parallels - Vi-JD and kuribo-charter. I prefer lynching on the latter to lynching on the former at the moment.

So why is your vote still on Vi?

[Sotty7]

I really, really want to know what makes you so sure we should lynch kuribo at this point. Sure we could very well be in the Godfather C9 but I really can't see myself voting for the one guy I have an innocent on, when it is an issue we can deal with tomorrow if we get that far. Add onto the fact then when it comes to JDodge or Vi we know that one of these guys IS scum. Is it a hard choice, damn right it is, but it is a choice that gives us the best chance to win the game.

Voting for kuribo makes no sense to me at this point. It will take a damn good case to make me look away from the two claimed docs.

Damn good.

[Sotty7]

Why would the GF counter claim?

So they can purpose this plan of lynching outside the two claimed docs. So if we do that as a town and somehow guess right, then I will get another investigation. The GF is fine with this because they are immune to my investigations! It's the perfect ploy.

And charter you haven't said anywhere

why

we should lynch kuribo just that you think he is the GF. Give me some reasons WHY you think this.

[Sotty7]

Woulda been nice if the case came before the vote.

[Sotty7]

Sorry guys been sick these last few days. I was just reading the game as I revived my prod.

If we lynch kuribo, and he is godfather, then it's game over. Right there.
If we lynch jdodge/VI sucessfully today, then I assume you investigate me tonight and we then have to decide between myself/kuribo tomorrow.

Jdodge had it right before. For jdodge/Vi today might be an easy choice, but for you, me, and kuribo (if he isn't the GF) then we have to choose right today and tomorrow. Basically, we have to choose between charter/kuribo at some point, so there's no sense in trying to guess jdodge/vi as well.

I will go ahead and advocate my plan as well. If there's a quickhammer and we lose, I'm sorry, but I don't think that's going to be the case.

vote kuribo

Okay...I don't know how many times I can say it without losing my mind...

You are suggesting we lynch THE ONE player I have an innocent on.
You are suggesting that we lynch outside JDodge and Vi where we KNOW one of them is lying and therefore scum.

Can you please explain why either of these ideas are good ones?

It lives on the assumption that we are in Godfather C9.
Even if that assumption is correct and someone is the Godfather, don't you think it is beneficial to the town to get in as many investigations as possible? The fact is that we have a 50/50 between Vi and JDodge, there IS scum in there somewhere, the whole town can see that.

You are trying to claim that it isn't logical for the Godfather to counter claim doc. To be honest it could be played either way. The Godfather could be counter claiming to set just this situation up! Then if we guess right between you and kuribo MY INVESTAGTIONS BECOME USLESS.

So in light of this possibility... Can you really sit there and tell me that we should lynch the one guy I have an innocent on when the Godfather isn't confirmed? Can you really sit there and tell me that a ballsy GF wouldn't try and make this play? However unlikely, isn't it

still

possible?

Personally, I think charter reveals more about his intent than he lets on.

Perhaps his partner IS a Godfather, and he's hoping that even if he fails to get my lynch today, he's set up the seeds of doubt for tomorrow. So, if he's the lynch for today, then tonight the cop either investigates his partner or the real doc. Either way getting an innocent, and putting his buddy in a good position for the win.

This is my worry at this point.

Why would the GF counter claim?

So they can purpose this plan of lynching outside the two claimed docs. So if we do that as a town and somehow guess right, then I will get another investigation. The GF is fine with this because they are immune to my investigations! It's the perfect ploy.

And charter you haven't said anywhere why we should lynch kuribo just that you think he is the GF. Give me some reasons WHY you think this.

Well, there's really no way to prove there is a GF, all I can do is use a bunch of WIFOM for you to think about and let you decide, pretty much the same as I did (basically look real hard at day two).

Exactly!! There is no way to prove there is a GF at this point. So why lynch my one innocent?! Makes no sense....

TL;DR PART

- afatchic did no scumhunting
- afatchic agreed and buddied with a lot of people
- afatchic kept promising to answer questions, but still posted content posts in this game not responding to them (and posted frequently in other games at the same time)
- afatchic requested replacement when he was about to be at the height of suspicion
- kuribo never answered anyone's questions for afatchic
- kuribo never answered anyone's questions at himself
- kuribo did a great job of active lurking and flying under the radar
- kuribo is now trying to say that the GF would be the one counter/claiming doc today. This flat out doesn't make sense (I can explain again why if someone besides kuribo wants me to)

To be fair, kuribo posts a lot. Some of his posts have little content, but he is always around giving his opinion so saying he was actively lurking is a big stretch I think. For example you list post 502 and 504 as active lurking while seemingly ignoring that he had content filled posts right before then, post 497 (talking about how unlikely Vi and JDodge are the scum team together) and post 494 (talking about the cop claims) I really don't like that.

You harp on again about how the GF would never counter claim and that's just a false hood. The fact is, the GF could really play it either way at this point, if there even is a GF! It makes sense for them to propose this situation if they are one of the claimed docs because they know then I become useless to the town. While you're right... The by the books play is for the goon to counter, but this is mafia, people aren't always going to play by the book.

You contradicted yourself when you voted for me, because you don't think the lynch me/you plan is the right way to go for today. Your contradiction is scummy. Your deflection of why the GF would counter/claim is scummy.
Afatchic being scummy means a lot, you have the same role as he did so you're either accountable for all his actions, or we have to give you a clean slate. I don't think anyone is going to sweep everything afatchic said and did under the rug.

I guess I expected you to respond to cases against afatchic or something. There's really not a whole to go on if we're not taking into account afatchic. We kind of have to.

I agree that kuribo voting for you looks bad. I can see why he did it though. Both Vi and myself have been saying that the GF could very well counter claim (or claim) in this situation. Does this make us scummy too?

I won't lie. The exchange between JDodge and Vi is making my head hurt. I think I am going to have to look back once more before I commit either way on that right now. I will say again though, my vote will be going to either JDodge or Vi.

Note on the deadline: because it is LYLO,

not lynching on the deadline will be an immediate loss

cause the game to go to night, and the number of votes required to lynch a player will be lowered by one (to two.) Also, it's set for 9:00, PM.

What time zone?

[Sotty7]

If I had to vote right this second I would be placing it on JDodge. Several things he has said has set me on edge, I just feel like he seems to know too much about the set up at this point. Makes me uneasy.

I just logged in now to re-read as much as I can to see if I can gain any extra information that would sway me either way because I'm really unsure at this point.

So yeah, this isn't 100% but we do need to keep the dialog open as we near this deadline.

[Sotty7]

charter who do you think is scum between Vi and JDodge?

[Sotty7]

Did we all die in the crash or are we just waiting for something to happen?

[Sotty7]

Did we all die in the crash or are we just waiting for something to happen?

we're all just stubborn

Are you happy keeping your vote on charter now? Or will you be swtiching to one of JDodge or Vi?

And Vi, you keep saying you will look back over chater v Kuribo... I for one would really like to know where you stand on that issue.

[Sotty7]

Can explain why? On both accounts.

[Sotty7]

I've been trying to place my vote for a couple of days now but I keep second guessing myself.

I think there is scum in each of the two little groups we have going. So one in JDodge/Vi and one in charter/kuribo.

Out of charter/kuribo I believe the scum to be charter. I just have a town read on kuribo and a innocent investigation on top of that. People have been trying to say he is the GF but I just don't see it and I'm not buying it at this point.

[Sotty7]

Sotty, would you still think that kuribo is town if we get to tomorrow with a doc dead, a goon lynched, and you have an innocent on both me and kuribo?

You know something I don't?

But if that did happen things would change. You would still be my number one suspect, but nothing would be 100% At this point I'm just hoping we make it to day 3.

Okay, deadline is coming up and I have been reading and re-reading this game more times than I can even remember. When it comes to JDodge v Vi I just find JDodge the scummier of the two.

Things that stick out?

Let's quickly go with note #1 here - Anyone can breadcrumb. Anyone.

Breadcrumbs should not be taken as any more proof than someone saying "I'm X".

ill answer it anyways. anyone can breadcrumb anything. just because someone breadcrumbs something doesn't really mean that they have to have that role. however, unless there is a cc, you never vote a claimed PR D1.

2 things.

1, are you trying to use the breadcrumb

against

moospiker here? That's pretty terrible.

To me it looks a lot like afatchic said pretty much exactly what JDodge himself said in post 155 and yet JDodge turns it around to make afatchic look bad. Struck me as very strange. Add to the fact that JDodge had just moved his vote over to afatchic..

#2 -

Unvote, vote: afatchic

. If you can't see why afatchic is scum, you need to get glasses or contact lenses or laser eye surgery or euthanized.

Just really stunk to me on my read though again. This was just after Moo had claimed and people were starting to look else where, namely at afatchic.

-He then drops off the face of the earth for a few pages without ever making a case on afatchic

-Comes back, makes a case, then drops it as soon as kuribo (a more vocal/forcable player) replaces in.

-Counter claims doc. Never states who he protected. Probably should be obvious, but still.

-Certain of the Godfather C9 yet never entertains the plus sides to the GF counterclaiming doc.

-Talks about lynching outside of himself and Vi but seems to have tunnel vision for only things that Vi posts. Even goes as far as saying he'd rather lynch either kuribo/charter yet never moves his vote off Vi.

Vote: JDodge.

Just comes down to him being a lot scummier than Vi to me at this point

[Sotty7]

I *think* he's asking who your number one is.

[Sotty7]

*Sigh*

I looked at charter.....Town.

Kill me now...

[Sotty7]

Gonna humor me and at least make some kind of case?

[Sotty7]

Yeah, I agree that kuribo looks bad for that.

Just gonna have to wait until he checks in. I'm in no rush to make any kind of choice just yet.

[Sotty7]

Having looked at your posting record kuribo, charter is right. Not only where you happily posting, but you were posting in multiple games while avoiding this one.

If that's not lurking, what is it?

[Sotty7]

Sorry. I am here, but I just need to set aside some time to sort through and chose between you two.

I thought that I would be happliy voting charter at this point, but kuribo's lurking and his general attitude today has really put a spanner in that plan. Expect something more substantial from me tomorrow when I have some free time to devote to the game and a re-read.

[Sotty7]

Okay, I've been reading and I'm almost done with the game up to page 22. Right now I'm tried and if I keep going I don't think I will be making sense of anything. So I am going to step away and finish up tomorrow. But before I go, I wanted to ask kuribo a couple of questions about a post I just read.

Vi- Having looked over things, I still don't like Vi, but it's entirely possible that I'm biased because I didn't like him on my first readthrough, either. I've already laid out why I think he's Mafia. Although, more recently, I think he's approaching the setup with a more open mind than JDodge.

I don't like the case he laid out about why the cop claim shouldn't be valid. Of course it's valid.

JDodge- I don't like the idea that he wants to lynch either charter or myself today. Considering we have two claimed docs, and that neither setup allows this, it's clear that one of them is lying, and almost certainly scum. So he'd rather take a chance on lynching two of the unknowns? I don't like it.

charter- Some of his behavior of late has disturbed me. He seems to have flip flopped back and forth a bit about Sche, and there have been other concerns raised by others.

I'm leaning town for charter, but also because there's no point in lynching anyone besides one of the claimed docs.

Sche- Alot of his behavior pre-claim is disturbing, but that's why he was forced to claim.

I mostly believe him at this point

, but of course I know that if we make the right lynch today, there's always time to return to Sche tomorrow.

So basically, I'm torn between the two obvious choices. I haven't decided yet if Vi's recent behavior is actually scummy to me, or if I'm biased because I found so much of his behavior before to be scummy.

They're both also speculating about who the other scum is.

Keep in mind that one of them actually is scum.

(because we make the assumption that only the world's most retarded townie would lie about being a doc in LYLO)

There are a couple of things that bug me here.

The first is you 180 on Vi because in post 494 you say you don't like Vi's attempts to sort the game out. Now he's the open minded one. You also state that you don't like how Vi questions the cop claim going as far as to say it's a valid claim.

When you talk about charter you mention how he has been scummy but then you say you are leaning town on him. This really does not add up if you believe the cop claim to be valid.

Talking about Sche you say you believe him for now, but leave room to return to him if needs be.... So how is there room for charter to be town at this point? The only way is if you believed JDodge and Vi are scum together pulling off a crazy gambit...

But you never even entertain that idea. You say

one

of them must be scum.

So if you believe Sche's cop claim.
And yet are leaning towards charter being town...
Why didn't you put out the thought that Vi and JDodge are scum? Because that's the only way this can all work, without you being scum.

Out of all the posts I have read so far this truly is the most damning in my eyes at this point. To me it looks like you where the one that over played his hand at this point. I will say that you where going back and forth about the cop claim like crazy. However in this post you state that you believe the claim at least twice. So what gives?

I'll be back tomorrow with more.

[Sotty7]

The issue really is your leaning towards charter being town more than anything else. With everything else you say in that post, you couldn't possibly be leaning towards charter being town, because there just isn't room for him if you truly are a townie.

You say you mostly believe the cop claim. You talk about it being valid. This means at this point you mostly believe Sche/myself to be the cop and therefor town.

You then say you are “leaning town” for charter. The follow up point about not lynching the two docs is correct, but really should have no effect on how you feel about charter. In fact his alignment seems to be pretty independent to that whole issue.

These two statements just don't fit at all. We had five players left. Yourself, charter, JDodge, Vi and myself. Two of which are scum. So going off your words. You think that Sche is likely town. You think charter is likely town. If we are to believe you are town then right there is the three townies.

This means logically you should at least moderately suspect that JDodge and Vi are the scum team. Even if you pitched it as a crazy idea, then this post might make sense. But you didn't. In fact you went as far as stating that only one of the claimed docs is scum.

That would make 4 townies. Which is impossible.

So the problem I have with post kurio is the fact there is just too many “likely” townies.

But yeah, I'm going to have some lunch then watch “Lie to me” before finishing my re-read. I have been taking some notes and I will see about sorting them out to be more readable so you can both see my train of thought.

[Sotty7]

Okay I'm finished. I could post my PBPA on both you guys and have you bicker over it for a little while I ponder my vote, but that really doesn't sound much like fun to me. Really shouldn't you guys be the one's making the cases? Ah well.

In a nutshell. The case against charter:

-Softly defends JDodge mostly by going after his attackers (posts 35, 39, 52, 72, 99, 222, 313)

-Constantly doubting the cop claim (152, 176, 259)

-JDodge defended him (466, 469)

-Didn't think afatchic was scum at all day one. Was happy to lynch him however because it would have been “informative” (230, 259, 317)

-His day 2 reason that JDodge was scum is gut. Ick (521, 541, 614, 616)

In a nutshell the case against afatchic/kuribo

-Softly defends JDodge (41, 72, 470)

-His late reaction to the Moo claim. (61, 66, 110)

-JDodge's vote/case on him feeling very much like a opportunistic bus considering the town feel at the time and the quickness of JDodge's unvote once kuribo replaces in (117, 155, 258, 303, 304, 364)

-Parrots JDodge on breadcrumbing (159)

-Come day 2, doesn't attempt to discuss with JDodge despite being named as Vi's likely partner (496, 497)

-Post 510! Too many townies, plus the fact he never questions the doc claim or counterclaim. This is pretty strange seeing as he was all over Vi about being scummy, I would have thought it would have drew out a bigger reaction from him than what we got. It seems that every time I read post 510 I find another strange thing.

-Voting for charter despite saying that we shouldn't lynch outside the two claimed docs (510, 544, 546, 548)

-Trying to claim the site was down for a number of days. It was down for two and half, 3 at the most. Looking at his posting history from the 8th of Jan when the site came back, till the 11th when we lynched JDodge and he had a total of 29 posts. Posting in a total of 5 games as well as in mafia and general discussion. Only 1 non content post in this game which was at deadline. Also tries to use other varying reasons for why he didn't post so close to the deadline. (636, 638, 643, 646, 647, 651, 652, 655)

-Tries to make charter look scummy for being on vacation (639, 655)

So real when I lay it out simply like this, I have to....

Vote: kuribo

Time to cross my fingers and close my eyes....

[Sotty7]

You did a good job, I almost had a heart attack