Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Here are my initial impressions based on a quick read through.
1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones. On the other hand, we can't lynch a claimed doc without a counterclaim on d1 so the case against SC should be tabled for now.
2. Apothecary seems unsure of basic strategies and basic rules. Inexperience could be one explanation. Pretending to be noob town could be another. I didn't see a lot of motive behind some of the wrong things he said until this movement for a no lynch.
3. The ythill v llamafluff fight is too dense for me to get a solid read on. My initial impression was that llama was getting the better of it, but I need to check the evidence for the claims they've made before I pick a side.
In conclusion, it looks like apothecary is the most likely lynchee for today, and I'm okay with that.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Here are my initial impressions based on a quick read through.
1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones. On the other hand, we can't lynch a claimed doc without a counterclaim on d1 so the case against SC should be tabled for now.
2. Apothecary seems unsure of basic strategies and basic rules. Inexperience could be one explanation. Pretending to be noob town could be another. I didn't see a lot of motive behind some of the wrong things he said until this movement for a no lynch.
3. The ythill v llamafluff fight is too dense for me to get a solid read on. My initial impression was that llama was getting the better of it, but I need to check the evidence for the claims they've made before I pick a side.
In conclusion, it looks like apothecary is the most likely lynchee for today, and I'm okay with that.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Sure, some new players advocate no lynch due to naivete. BUT this isn't Apoth's first game and he has made a lot of basic 'mistakes' that there's not really a reason to. I voted not "in isolation", but based on a failure of Apothecary to improve his understanding. Look at Apoth's post 540:Elmo wrote: I also really don't like the timing of qwint's vote. Comes in, here are my initial impressions on a quick read through, now let me put someone at L-1 seven hours later with an epicly weak reason. That's pretty opportunistic, at best; I could easily see a scumbag coming in and trying to push through the easy lynch. 541 is a pretty terrible reason for a vote, even in isolation.
This was in response to a great deal of criticism for suggesting no lynch.apoth wrote: Oh yeah Ythill, cause two townies dead in one day is certainly better!
But of course you wouldn't care about that, because you're scum.
On the claim that I moved too quickly in voting - I don't feel the need to ease into a game once it's well under way. In the time between my initial read and my vote, I looked back through the thread. A key piece, which others have highlighted, is apoth suggesting that SC might be lying town. This statement seems to be trying to inoculate SC against the counter-claim that (I believe) is coming eventually.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Just as an aside:
Don't think of lynching a townie versus not lynching a townie. Think of it as lynching potential scum and gaining information versus doing nothing.
If we don't lynch, we'll have one dead innocent tomorrow (assuming one unblocked nk) to re-read today in light of. If we do, we'll have two to analyze - without costing us any time. Furthermore, there's the added bonus of all the information we get leading up to the lynch. It's a lot easier for people to be noncommittal if no one is lynched. Lynching scum, on day 1, is just an extra bonus you sometimes get.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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@ Ythill, saying that lynching scum is a secondary goal of the D1 lynch is a theory point, not a slip.
Corvuus, why wait to share your suspicions? They'll give us something more to talk about.
I'll join those critical of Apoth's post. Listing all the reasons you were scummy and blaming them on apathy and noobness is not a defense.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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I assume you're talking about Ythill and LlamaFluff. What's your opinion of Apothecary? You rejected his suggestion that SC was town and fake claiming, but you haven't commented since people have posted the case.MiteyMouse wrote:Ok....that was a big read. My personal feeling right now is that they are 2 Town players that are going at each other really hard...basically, one doesn't look Scummier than the other. That is just my oponion at this point. That being said, it would be a brilliant move for 2 of the Scum to go at each other like that...risky but, brilliant.-
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I find it interesting that you're calling MM an active lurker. I read through his posts and didn't see many posts that screamed lurker.Elmo wrote:
No way, active lurker >>> claimed vanilla. She isCephrir wrote:If I had to pick Apoth or MM for scum in a void I think I'd go for MM, but now that Apoth has claimed vanilla it's probably best to lynch him.dyingfor a wagon.
Ishouldget read up within a couple days now, unless something else goes wrong with my computer.
I'd like you to lay out your case for someone else we should lynch besides Apoth.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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MacavityLock wrote:I'm still interested to see the rest of Jazz's player notes.
Why have things gotten so quiet?
This is a typical "active lurker" post by the way. He complains about inactivity without making any active contribution.
FOS:MacavityLock
I remain fine with an apoth lynch and have yet to see another convincing case.-
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I'm just not convinced by the MM case. True, she does have quite a number of stalling posts or question posts. She also did that 3rd vote = scum thing against MacavityLock which I'm not too sure what to make of. Furthermore, her belief in Primate's "PR" seems laughable in retrospect.
I just got out of a lurk fest where Killer 7 posted once a prod (Mafia 83) so maybe my standards for lurking are a little higher. MM, on the other hand, has pursued a case against Cephrir. I have yet to see scum in narrow in on one player on D1.-
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"I didn't want to commit"
"I was just lazy"
"no excuse or reason I can give"
Apoth, if you're not going to try and defend your earlier play, you at least have to make it appear you've changed. After you agreed to fight, you haven't made a single point beyond your "defence." That's sufficient to return my vote to you.
vote Apothecary-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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If my early play really was as disinterested as you say yours was, I would re-read the game and give new analysis. Even if it fails to save you, it gives the town confirmed townie analysis after your lynch. And you just might convince us that you are a pro-town player who simply didn't put any effort into the game earlier.
Here are some sample questions:
1) What is your current opinion of SC's claim?
2) Who should we lynch instead of you?
3) What do you think of the LlamaFluff/Ythill arguments?-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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I'm taking him at face value. He asked me what I would do in a "situation like this." I took that to mean what I would do if I was town (as he has claimed) and was close to being lynched. I answered the question in the hope of improving his play in the future.
I still think that he's the most likely to be scum and I don't think anything he says as a result of my "coaching" is going to hurt the town given his rapidly impending lynch.-
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BUT you have been one of the loudest supporters of an Apoch lynch...Ythill wrote: I hope you'll be looking closely at me either way, but Rx as scum is hardly a reason to suspect me more. Meta me. If I was scum and had a buddy getting half as much attention as Rx, chances are we'd have hung him already, and I would have been one of the loudest supporters.
Covering contingencies is not scummy. I don't think anyone could claim Apoch is 100% likely to be scum. The things I've said to help him if he's town are designed to cover the chance that he is town/help him play better in the future.
The points I've asked apoc to address are designed to help us regardless of whether he's town or scum.-
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Ythill wrote:The day is winding down and it seems as if Rx is going to be the lynch no matter what is said. I'm not entirely against this, since I've seen a fair amount of evidence against him, but I still think qwints is the better play.
Again I ask, if you are one of those who suspect SC is lying scum, why let Rx hang when SC is voting for him and pushing for his lynch?
Because you don't lynch a claimed doc on D1 w/o a damn good reason. Also, having a scum member on your wagon is not proof that you're town
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Qwints is my PE#1 due to tells dropped across the replacement which is usually a very good indicator of a role's alignment.
I've already addressed this. I played to cover the contingency that Apoth is town because I don't know for sure that he is scum
1. No, waiting two days won't hurt the town.Ythill wrote: Do you feel it will hurt the town to let this lynch happen at deadline? If yes, how? If not, why are you pushing? Also, please give any opinions you have about Llama's latest post (#654).
2. n/a
3. I'm just indicating that I am now more sure that Apoth is scum. The purpose is to make the case that he is the best target given the other cases (including one against me) that people are pushing.
4. I don't see much in Llama's post to reply to. It seems non-committal and maybe a little confused.-
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It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch. Maybe the doc was acting scummy to avoid being a nk target. Maybe he was just being an idiot. Or maybe SC is scum. It's just not worth it to lynch him on D1. If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum.-
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Ythill, you don't seem to be consistent. I thought you said that my "slips" implying that I "knew" apoth was why you thought I was scum. Doesn't this mean that if you think I'm scum, you think apoth is town?
On the SC lynch, I've thought SC was scummy since I've replaced in. Given the actions of others, I am now fairly certain of that fact. I will note that we need at least four votes to lynch at deadline and that a tie means no lynch. Those not voting (apoth and jazz) need to justify why they think we should no lynch if they want to not vote. I also want to hear from Elmo on if he's sticking with OGML at this point.-
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Cephrir wrote:Well, that's bizarre. I could go into my WIFOM thought process about it, but I won't.
It's hard to read a lot into SC because he was just all over the place. There's certainly nothing preventing OGML from being his buddy so I'll go with my thought from yesterday.
Vote: OGMLFOS: Cephrir. Starting a wagon at deadline against a scum-power role is certainly suggestive of someone being town. Sure, he might have been trying to establish town credentials because he thought the lynch wouldn't happen, but I don't think you can look at the last part of yesterday and say "this makes OGML likely to be scum."
I am equally confused about last nights kill, though. I don't think we can figure out anything from it now, but it will definitely be something to keep in mind as we learn more.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Cephrir
1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction
2) Pulled an about face on Primate
3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration
See his post that before the SC claim
He's finally willing to do some work when it will succeed in confirming him townCephrir wrote: That SC wagon looks better every minute. Actually,Vote: SC. His most recent few posts have really sealed it for me, and now he's backing off Ythill which seems to me like a total cop-out to the accusation of his rapidly changing suspicions (which, incidentally, is not a bad tell IMO). Note that this is a L-1 vote.
See also his post asking permission to hammer Apoth:
Maybe a null tell, but it strikes me as a little scummy to not give reasons for an Apoth lynch.Cephrir wrote:I went away this weekend and nothing happened. Yay, I guess.
Is that L-1? I'm willing to hammer, I'm done with both Apoth and this day.
His refusal to defend and unvote of OGML are further evidence for me.-
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Let's look at the record.Cephrir wrote: I don't recall ever thinking [Primate] was scum. Obnoxious but never lynchworthy.
followed byCephrir wrote: @Primate voters: even if Primate is faking a PR, I don't think it's scummy. Antitown, perhaps, but not scummy. And I'm far from positive that he's making it up anyway.
ANDCephrir wrote:Unvote, Vote: Primatebecause stop.
You were putting pressure on Primate and suddenly backed off.Cephrir wrote:If you're giving up, I will as well. I was hoping if we got enough votes on Primate he would give it up, but if the wagon's greatest supporter is going to jump ship it'll never work.
Unvote.-
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Elmo - on the first two points - that sort of behaviour demonstrates a hidden agenda behind his play. He was playing in a way designed to set up tension in the town instead of moving the game ahead.
On the third point see this post:
Cephrir wrote:If you've read this thread then you saw a case against MM.-
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qwints
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Cephrir, I assume the "bizarre" play you refer to is my giving reasons that you disagreed with. Sure I could be wrong, but I'm increasingly sure that you're scum. One more piece of evidence is your referral to Ythill's death. You've said that the only possible explanations for that are 1) I am scum or 2) Scum is trying to frame me. Now you're saying that ythill's death proves that he was correct about atlas. Even though Ythill changed his position on Atlas before I subbed in. Furthermore, speculating about motives for nightkills at this point in the game is pure WIFOM.
Obviously neither OGML nor I are confirmed town, but Ceph is still the most likely scum.-
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I already laid out my problems with Ceph:
qwints wrote:Cephrir
1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction
2) Pulled an about face on Primate
3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration
See his post that before the SC claim
He's finally willing to do some work when it will succeed in confirming him townCephrir wrote: That SC wagon looks better every minute. Actually,Vote: SC. His most recent few posts have really sealed it for me, and now he's backing off Ythill which seems to me like a total cop-out to the accusation of his rapidly changing suspicions (which, incidentally, is not a bad tell IMO). Note that this is a L-1 vote.
See also his post asking permission to hammer Apoth:
Maybe a null tell, but it strikes me as a little scummy to not give reasons for an Apoth lynch.Cephrir wrote:I went away this weekend and nothing happened. Yay, I guess.
Is that L-1? I'm willing to hammer, I'm done with both Apoth and this day.
His refusal to defend and unvote of OGML are further evidence for me.qwints wrote:Cephrir, I assume the "bizarre" play you refer to is my giving reasons that you disagreed with. Sure I could be wrong, but I'm increasingly sure that you're scum. One more piece of evidence is your referral to Ythill's death. You've said that the only possible explanations for that are 1) I am scum or 2) Scum is trying to frame me. Now you're saying that ythill's death proves that he was correct about atlas. Even though Ythill changed his position on Atlas before I subbed in. Furthermore, speculating about motives for nightkills at this point in the game is pure WIFOM.
Obviously neither OGML nor I are confirmed town, but Ceph is still the most likely scum.[/quote
]There was also his reaction to pressure which I saw as anti-town.
Obviously, I was wrong about Ceph. I don't see a lot to be gained evaluating the reasons themselves (hindsight is 20/20), but I certainly was giving reasons. Not to mention the fact that four other players ( 1 confirmed town) agreed with me.
Onto today. I really don't like Apoth asking the obvious to start the day. If you're going to post, contribute at least a little.vote: Apoth-
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active lurking = posting without contributing = scum.
The fact that you've been so quiet recently is very suspicious. Maybe you killed ythill to throw suspicion on me, bringing it up is introducing WIFOM and not helpful.
I note that I am L - 1 and will claim if asked by anyone not currently voting for me.-
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But you apparently have time to watch Battlestar Gallactica...
11 posts in a month on Days 2 and 3 after 53 posts in 2 months on D1. Furthermore, some of your new posts are short and contentless. That's a clear drop in activity.
Combine that with an OMGUS vote, unnecessary hostility and nk speculation and you're looking pretty scummy to me.
On another point, I was already voting for you before 656. You had made several posts without mounting a further defense.
Last, I claimed that the scum (i.e. you) could have killed someone (i.e. Ythill) to put pressure on those Ythill attacked (i.e. me and LlamaFluff.) I said that it was impossible to gain meaning from the kill because it was a WIFOM situation. Therefore, bringing it up was unhelpful. Why was this reasoning "so flawed" that I am "beyond all hope."-
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I protected OGML night one because he had led the SC lynch. He also had demonstrated an ability to persuade the town. After SC flipped scum, he wasn't going to be a top suspect for a while and might have attracted a nk as someone who looked like the doc.
I protected Jazz night two because of the in-depth analysis she produced and the risk of not getting to hear all of her results. Today's further delays have begun to worry me some. Jazz was also labeled as likely town by several players on day 2. OGML, on the other hand, had begun to attract some negative attention.
As for apothecary: On day 1, I thought he was inexperienced scum getting bussed by SC. I thought it was likely that SC would try to 'confirm' himself by being on a scum wagon. So in answer to:
is an unequivocal yes.corvuus wrote: The thing is, you, as 'real doc' should know that SC is lying and thus scum and that even if SC is the 'worst scum' in the entire universe, would he 100% bus his scumpartner to that extent?-
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1) You and LF made some negative comments earlier in the day that you then backed off. It was mostly Ceph's case.MacavityLock wrote: Was this negative attention from anyone other than Ceph?
So why protect someone who posts potentially useful stuff rarely over an active player who was probably our most confirmed at the time?
If Ceph had flipped scum, would you have switched off of protecting OGML?
2) OGML was fairly inactive on the last part of D2. I thought Jazz's analysis was very solid. It was a judgment call mostly motivated by Ceph flipping town.
3) Hell no. If Ceph had flipped scum, OGML would have been protected the rest of the game.-
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OGML pushed hard for Ceph's lynch and Ceph laid out a case against him. Ceph flipping town made OGML less likely to be town. Next there was OGML's flippant posts towards the end of day 2.MacavityLock wrote: Why did Ceph flipping town affect your protect? I really don't understand the logic behind that.
And finally, the last post on day 2:
LlamaFluff wrote:
Always good to have more information from the obv-townsOhGodMyLife wrote:Like it wasn't already obvious how town Jazz is or something.
vote cephrir-
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Here's what I said about SC's doc claim.qwints wrote:Here are my initial impressions based on a quick read through.
1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones. On the other hand, we can't lynch a claimed doc without a counterclaim on d1 so the case against SC should be tabled for now.
and then of course I quickly hopped on the SC bandwagon as soon as OGML started it.qwints wrote: It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch. Maybe the doc was acting scummy to avoid being a nk target. Maybe he was just being an idiot. Or maybe SC is scum. It's just not worth it to lynch him on D1. If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum.
My thinking was that it would be too obvious if I pushed for a SC lynch on my own post-claim, but I was willing to jump on the first wagon that came along. I did not intentionally breadcrumb and risk scum deducing I was doc, but you should find my play consistent with my being a cautious doctor.-
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Here's my evaluation of ML:
He's put pressure on players a couple of times and backed off without a solid explanation.
See
Corvuus Day 1: 2 FOS's and a strong criticism followed by a declaration that he is just an aggessive townie.
MM: Day 1 "Top of my scum list" completely dropped after Apoc started acting ultra scummy. OGML's replacement and non-scummy behavior led to a (correct) townie declaration.
Apoth: "My Apoth suspicions, which were stronger than my MM suspicions, from day 1 remain." No votes post Day 1, though ML has constantly pressured him.
I also note that ML had some interactions with SC on day 1, including a call for him to role claim. My read is that if ML is scum, corvuus or apoc is his buddy. ML reads as quite cautious, however, and I'm not seeing any strong signs of his being scum.
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I'm kind of suspicious of corvuus right now, but that's mostly just OMGUS. I plan on re-reading his posts next. Right now, I continue to think that Apoc is the most likely scum - scummy behavior day 1 followed by an almost complete lack of content. He definitely needs get some material in before his V/LA.
So that leaves LF, Jazz and Elmo. The former two I've seen no real reason to be suspicious of. The latter has been pretty silent. Given that he hasn't posted for a week:
Mod, could you prod Elmo?(If you haven't done so already.)-
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Obviously you misunderstood my post.
I was evaluating ML's posts because he has a vote on him. The FOS's I referred to were only in the context of ML's posts. My point was that ML has put pressure on players and then moved on without much of an explanation for moving on. Thus, my feeling was that he would be scum with them if he actually were scum. But, overall, I didn't think he was scum.
Furthermore, I wasn't attacking you at the moment. I was merely saying that I was suspicious of you but that it was due to your attacks on me. I'm going to re-read your posts to see if there was a solid case against you.
Either I wasn't clear or you're deliberately misunderstanding me. Was it really that confusing?-
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qwints Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3303
- Joined: September 5, 2008
As to this point:
I believe I have tried to explain my claim quite thoroughly and would be happy to answer any more questions.Corvus wrote: If you were a real doc, you (at least in my opinion) would be happy to explain your claim, details, etc. and why would there by OMGUS at all? Does any real doc expect 'everyone' to believe him? Any real doc worth his salt would go after 'real scum' and not a perceived OMGUS of a townie not believing him.
qwints wrote:I protected OGML night one because he had led the SC lynch. He also had demonstrated an ability to persuade the town. After SC flipped scum, he wasn't going to be a top suspect for a while and might have attracted a nk as someone who looked like the doc.
I protected Jazz night two because of the in-depth analysis she produced and the risk of not getting to hear all of her results. Today's further delays have begun to worry me some. Jazz was also labeled as likely town by several players on day 2. OGML, on the other hand, had begun to attract some negative attention.
As for apothecary: On day 1, I thought he was inexperienced scum getting bussed by SC. I thought it was likely that SC would try to 'confirm' himself by being on a scum wagon. So in answer to:
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