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monkey<3 lovely to see you again
who's scum? i haven't read up yet but like, it's me, i'll get there in due course and will get more out of talking with y'all anyway-
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i am nothing if not efficient-
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yes elements and i are masons
i had not realised they'd already claimed sweet now i don't have to convince people to townread me anymore-
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that ain't how this works pal i'm confirmed town now you tell me your reads and beg for validation-
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in earnest though, i've said hello caught up on the pt and i don't think el & i have been online at the same time yet so like. we haven't talked in there yet.-
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they talked about mason theory for a bit & how to go about distancing. i can go dig up why they decided to do that if it'll help? i probably would have done it differently but like. yes, sometimes people who rand mason lean into their scum toolkit to decide how to distance. honestly, el would be more helpful than me.
where are your reads at hem?-
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VOTE: Bingle missed u friend <3
these are both good wagons
??? but I'm already the deepscumIn post 1916, humaneatingmonkey wrote: tweet i'm paranoid that you've charmed me and pocketed me and is the deepscum-
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hey Bob nice to see you're back.In post 1918, bob3141 wrote: Hi Worst
I beleive the mason claim. Although i dont get some of elements posts if elements and worst are two of the masons.
can you expand on this because all flips so far have been vanilla?In post 1924, bob3141 wrote: If i was to setup spec this is what my gut say this set up is
2 masons, one backup or novice mason, one invest vs one weak scum role-
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can you point me in the direction of what from Dragons was unaligned with camel?In post 1920, geraintm wrote: Summing up, nit voting for
Elements
The worst
For mason claim
And save the dragon because of how I think they could have interacted with the scum we caught-
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didn't you sub in after me? this is still really sweet so i'll take it. who shall we kill together?In post 1957, Bingle wrote:
I subbed into this game specifically to play with you, and you immediately betrayal me like this. You really are just the worst.In post 1917, the worst wrote: VOTE: Bingle missed u friend <3
these are both good wagons
??? but I'm already the deepscumIn post 1916, humaneatingmonkey wrote: tweet i'm paranoid that you've charmed me and pocketed me and is the deepscum-
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i'm on your wavelength so far tbhIn post 1959, Bingle wrote:
This is probably town, fwiw. Scummonkee is more likely to realize that if bob is lying about there being a novice mason the claimed masons would presumably just say that. Bob is probably telling the truth, which doesn’t really make him town. Rolecop definitely makes sense as a scum role in a three mason setup, and assuming the masons aren’t the novices in question that’s what it sounds like.In post 1956, humaneatingmonkey wrote: novice mason sounds made up because it's not really a role i have ever seen. you're the one who mentioned novice mason, so I'm not sure why it's me who jumped to any conclusions?
and i don't understand what other motivation you're looking for here, other than getting out of poe?
none of that please, do your own job. i'd rather *not* solve until everyone gives me their solve lmao i'm sure el feels the sameIn post 1969, bob3141 wrote: but worst is a mason he is good solver. True i wouldnt give that power to elements
although prob obvous dont want to out the 3rd unless they hint that its fine-
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what's your solve in a world without a third mason bc that's importantIn post 1973, humaneatingmonkey wrote: i think it's smart for the 3rd to be outed just so when the masons die, there aren't any scum claiming to be the 3rd. we already have two of the masons outted, so I'm not sure why there's value not outting a 3rd. it's not like scum has a shortage of pr claims to flip.-
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i'd kinda like bob to fullclaim if he's going to do mystical mechanical stuff-
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i find it bizarre that a town mason finder would, like, target anyone or claim ever but ok go off-
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i just went over that slot's history with greeting & camel. it kind of looks like both klick and dragons hedged on greeting/snivy, then just joined the wagon once it had momentum which is like... a very safe bus. what part of it made you think they're not aligned?In post 1933, geraintm wrote:
I did it hereIn post 1927, the worst wrote:
can you point me in the direction of what from Dragons was unaligned with camel?In post 1920, geraintm wrote: Summing up, nit voting for
Elements
The worst
For mason claim
And save the dragon because of how I think they could have interacted with the scum we caught
In post 1858, geraintm wrote: So, Klick/Dragon was 1st on the town Roden wagon
and was 4th on Camel's scum wagon
Clidd was 2nd on the town Roden wagon
and was on Furtive end of day 2 and is about to be replaced.
But i find it hard to beleive that Savethe dragon is/was scum with Camel.
STD could have pushed a different wagon and then Camel would not have needed to have voted. 2 votes somewhere else would have been very much game changing, and i am not going to vote STD today because of this.-
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i'm not going to vca because (1) i'm not smart (2) it gets mixed results (3) someone will BULLY me but just a very surface-level observation. if scum self-hammer, it's usually because it will benefit one+ of their teammates. a vca-doer would consider this a sign that there is already scum on their wagon. but shooting oopsie indicates maybe this wagon is cleaner than we're letting on, unless oopsie had particularly good reads or was just super epic.In post 1686, Umlaut wrote:
talk to me about where u see partners around this elim-
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i agree we're better for bob having claimed and i don't think it's all that scummy a claim but i'm not married to it either
i really want gerrain to expand because i don't think gerrain is town?
pedit: mood-
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clidd was a goddamn angel you take that back
VOTE: bob-
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emperor literally did nothing but (1) talk up when pushed, (2) complain about not being allowed to lurk so i'm fine calling that a scum pr iso
el is kinda easy to have an opinion on and this is a really hedgy read.In post 1819, bob3141 wrote: elements is unconfirmed in first 4 too so taht another to look at. But is also hit town indicator for me, even if it is weak one that gets trumped by iso
strongest read in bob's iso and he's now admitted this was tmi (regardless of alignment)In post 1821, bob3141 wrote: A very townie post
does anyone else pick this up? i've read gerain townreads in the mason chat. i don't get it at all. i'm not sure if gamestate is the word i'd use to describe any of these reads though?In post 1873, bob3141 wrote: The gamestate im leaning towards gerain beign town lol. This situation reminds me of game long ago when town could decide on execution all the while gerain wasnt voting. I think scum gerain would have already come down on one side as his last scum game he was on most wagons
i kept thinking this claim was too self-damaging to come from scum. but realistically all it does is justify a nk on a slot who is more threatening than myself & elements. it's independently anti-town to out mt as a mason or the existence of a third mason but hear me out. this is a scum role, and anyone with the town role should be holstering unless they're clearing scum-mason-claim wifom.In post 2009, bob3141 wrote: though when i repped i foudn my role really funny as in my last game i didnt beleive HEM bg finder role
was it karma lol
possible this is a traitor role or smth too
the "i was hoping to draw a nightkill" is cute in theory. but then you consider that bob allegedly tried to draw a nightkill by outing the fact that there are three confirmed-town players who need to be nightkilled before the final phase/s and it's like
??? there's no way this draws shots off masons
sorry the more i think the less i see this as a town play
all bob's other reads are like, wagonomics or nightkill theories which don't really make me think he's approaching this game in a way that solves it either tbh-
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sorry, i could have sworn bob's pronoun field was set.
wish i had this game solved but please don't sleep on scum!bob they are not going to be night killed :')-
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i'm not sold on either of hem or std but i'm open to being convinced-
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i am really deeply passionately null on dragons, my hungry monkey friend, what's ur scumcase?-
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points taken, dragons is definitely in my poe!-
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sure, where's your town case at?-
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oh, uh, like maybe. idk if he is scum then i think he kinda needed ~something~ to get them past the immediate PoE and his claim does that only if he claims yesterday. the suggestion they'd draw a nightkill over the third mason they'd just outed was kind of absurd.
i get it, i'll go elsewhere first, but i really don't think that's a case for why bob is town in this game. it's closer to a case for why bob is null.-
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like maybe. my divine senses have no feeling on how many partners were on snivy's wagon just that there was 1+ partner there-
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just checking do we like both furtive + dragons as scum partners pushing clidd while an all-town wagon (assuming gerain) is going after furtive? this is pretty high risk of furtive goes down. then both following you onto snivy at the end of the phase?In post 1625, Umlaut wrote:
it kind of feels like if dragons & furtive were partners they did as much as possible to seem associated lmao
i should probably do some deeper reading-
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i wish i could, i'm so sorry. i think i have a gauge of what to expect from playing with you (we have a lot of energy similarities) but i'm not like, convinced, yet.In post 2083, humaneatingmonkey wrote: that's all i have. i hope you already can tell I'm town?-
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In post 1631, OopsieDaisy wrote:this is so funny
i like both players more after this interaction
In post 1634, geraintm wrote:Care to enlighten me, because it just looked a really random vote for no reason
this is great lol-
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In post 1651, OopsieDaisy wrote: I could go for the Greeting slot, I don't rly wanna vote it over Furtive but we need *a* wagon going and I'm not sure Furtive's wagon is gonna be able to make it all the way in the first place.In post 1615, OopsieDaisy wrote:
My stance on HEM right now is that he's a talker. He's someone who was willing to lead town yesterday and the activity he gives to the game tells us a lot about him and those around him. Do I feel good about him dipping out a bit today? Not really. But it shows he'll engage if/when he needs to.In post 1614, Save The Dragons wrote: UNVOTE:
i don't remember why i thought clidd was scummy let me take a closer look
i would like to know why people are so keen on HEM
But I feel like if he's scum there's a strong chance he's paired with Furtive because of how I've observed them interacting and the way they've both tried to push other players' votes away from the other (HEM with the limpool of the gera pushers thing, Furtive guiding your vote away from HEM just this page). Because of this, and the fact I feel like he's a really strong asset to us *if* he's town, I want to flip Furtive first.
if daisy was shot for sharp reads (looking more likely) i think i like gerain more than i have and hem less than i have-
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this brief magical thought experience has me somewhere like this, i refute the onus of consistency & coherency
tw, el
ckd? i'm still sheeping this read lol i have no opinion
gerain
std
hem
bob-
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i think my mind is open (stakes don't feel very high rn ) i just don't see it!!-
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alright, do u have anything else on dragons because i think he looks about as unassociated as you're saying you look?-
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i'm just not seeing dragons as partnered yet
not like, convinced he's town, i'm just not really picking it up and he seems lower probability than people are giving him credit for-
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VOTE: bob
would also go hem
i'm sorry this is probably disappointing fypov. i don't really find your case on dragons convincing. i think i've explained the stuff i've seen (albeit surface & limited). asking me to elaborate or stuff i'm not seeing is, like, something that sounds challenging but kinda stops me being able to engage.
dragons reads kinda unaligned to me. bob reads scum motivated. i don't really have much on hem, i get dragons' point and find hem's towncase for themself less convincing than dragons' notes on scum!hem
i'll go make sure i'm not sinning-
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i'm goin from pg 1 as w speak !! first 10 pages are pretty dry, it's mostly now-confirmed town + you + klick circularly casing people who've now flipped town in kinda unsatisfying ways
novel mentions so far
hem:
- convo around 19 + 24 with furtive feels kinda forced for an rvs thing, quick to move vote from furtive to mt. this isn't damning just something i'd bully you for if i was around in rvs.
- furtive's reads in 148 have you hard town; el maybe town
- clidd's posts 159 find you quite organic
- eager & engaged so far
bob:
- 28 furtive greets bob's slot for no reason
there is nothing on this slot bc emperor lurked. i'll grant that emperor lurking with a negative utility role as town makes sense but i've already talked abt my observations here so i'm kinda bias checking...
savethedragons:
- 158 clidd gives this slot a weak townread (i have no notes so far so klick has probably ignored contentious reads or now-flipped scum).
- 162 i like klick picking semantic fights about their daisy reads at clidd after clidd townreads him.
- eager & engaged so far
gera:
- 161 vote from clidd.
- this is a lurker so reading by gamestate, 161 has:
at this point, consider either:
- no scum are being wagoned (i.e. gera is town), or there is an all-town wagon on scum!gera who is lurking
- around 173 furtive jumps in and makes a couple of aimless meta comments without addressing major wagons
i feel like this is a fairly good time to move his vote onto town!gera but i don't really know if it's very revealing of gera's alignment
getting to the good stuff just giving myself a foundation-
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hem if you can cast your mind back i'm kind of interested in your motives on d1
around 240 ur in the middle of an inquisition of oopsie over her mt read. you assess (correctly) that oopsie's read on mt is kind of overblown to generate content. in 255 mt mentions a slight townread on you. in 267 you switch your vote to takutai who is, like, a nonpresence. then in 272 you mention that mt's over-defensiveness is kinda off.
did you vote someone other than mt because she townread you? given that was your angle did you not think voting mt would be interesting?-
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in the early 400s. you're exceptionally difficult to be confident on in this game because we're in one of two realities.
1) you're scum. you rolled scum with furtive + greeting, and noted that you're capable of carrying the team as scum. furtive did work to distance from you well (328, convo around 397), while providing a fairly generic scum iso. not giving anything away, not really advancing the game, i get the impression he's playing it safe and not giving much away. kinda just hoping he wouldn't be caught too quickly. greeting is lower energy but also offers a pretty safe read on you in 304. i'm going to guess that greeting was planning on a lower energy game and got snagged by something later. issue being that there's a bunch of slots that both of them just, like, do not interact with (incl. bob & dragons), so it's not really obvious if this was the strategy or not.
2) you're just town, you're only really interacting with town and only pressuring town so far. scum are totally uninterested in you because you're high-energy, abrasive town who is only really causing problems for town so far. this isn't an insult, i think it's just a shake-out of the nature of this game; a lot of the active & contentious slots early are just town.
.... and unsurprisingly i just have no opinion on which reality we're in. gonna keep meditating on this-
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also realising ckd, as someone who is usually good at coming in swinging late in the game, is a nightmare to read in a mason game. because from the perspective of someone who is actually a vt, we have two teams to hunt - one we need to kill and one we don't. i guess i'm really excited for ckd to have more time to play w us.-
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i don't think those two are mutually exclusive. i don't think furtive approached this game phoning it in because he had you to carry. the opposite, i think it makes sense for furtive to be low-energy if he's comfortable with his team
500 & 520 is such a fucking weird convo for greeting & furtive to both phone in if klick/dragons is scum-
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alright. i'm not very interested in talking to you about my read on you in a tonne of detail sorry but i'll take that under advisement & keep reading.
ultimately we need to find 2 town in [you, ckd, dragons, gera, bob]. there's probably 4 town there. assuming you aren't someone who can survive to endgame who are your picks for townies who do?
i get you're pretty deadset on dragons, do you have a second place?-
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cool as of pg 25 i'm surprised people seem to have ckd locktown too-
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oh hmm ok i think i get the gist of your bob case, why ckd?-
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In post 689, clidd wrote: Now I'm leaning town on you.In post 690, humaneatingmonkey wrote: And now I'm leaning scum on you!
this is such a cute softclaim. clidd, you're great.In post 691, clidd wrote: It's fine, we will figure something out later.-
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my brain needs a cleanse i'm going to talk to bob for a minute
point - i'll consider more deeply when i catch up to there properly.In post 2062, bob3141 wrote: Also ask your self does interaction between me and bing realy look s/s.
In post 2063, bob3141 wrote: Only time bing interacts with dragon is via mt. Where bing lightly defends dragon. He interacts with me/HEm and the maosns but not dragon
granted on both counts. i'll consider this.In post 2101, bob3141 wrote: That really inst that strong of an association as it isnt like furt is only at e-3 aswell as everyones else votes are dispersed. And it wouldnt be first time that scum had a wagon pretty much to themselves.
pretty strongly disagree. this is also a mech argument which isn't, like, super useful, but hear me out.In post 2103, bob3141 wrote: Also it should be highly likely that scum are simply triple goons.
There were two reasons i did the vague claim plus nk speculation. Is that i wanted to first just get players talking and second to see how players react to a possible town rolecop claim as that would be first assumption of be saying there was a 3rd mason. If scum had a pr i would appear to them as a defacto cop should we get the 2nd goon last day. So i was looking to see how bing the player i was sure was scum would react. It was pretty clear that he wasnt worried about the possibility, Thus, its clear even if rolecop fit (which it wouldnt) it would have no chance of finding a guilty.
So teh set up is prob 3 mason, mason finder and 3 goons
the mason finder acts as an informed towny that also reveals their info on flip. As well as slight boost as they would noraly be able to easily find a town block and thus solve.
3 masons, motion detector and 3 goons in 15p so a slightly boosted pr would make sense. Since one misexecution has been dropped
3 masons + 1 named townie is pretty damn strong. 3 masons + 7 vt vs. 3 goons is a very famous open setup, which is generally considered to be balanced:
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... nd_Enemies
that being said, we're in an era where:
town have won 4 times in a row (100% town w/r)
6 of the last 7 wins have been town (85.71% town w/r)
scum have only won 11 of 20 games with decisive winners over the last 16 years (45% town w/r)
of the 4 recent wins, a final mason has reached night 5 once (1), and endgame 1, 2, 3 times.
i think there's an argument to be made that town is outperforming scum in this setup in this era of mafiascum. i think there's an argument to be made for helping scum to find masons given they're tending to reach endgame which dramatically swings the game in town's favour. i don't think there's an argument to be made for helping town to find masons, given that masons are already confirmable as soon as one of them or one member of the mafia flips. also -- all that you've done here is identify a mason for scum. it's a negative utility town role if it's a town role, and i think it makes *slightly* more sense as a scum role to remove swing which is clearly swinging in town's direction.
this is without any other power roles existing ofc. i just categorically reject the argument that your role is in any way clearing. if anything, it's weakly incriminating. if you're scum, the way you claimed was incredibly clever. if you're town, the way you claimed removed town's chance of a mason reaching final 3 (and mt, to boot, who is lowkey a queen).-
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VOTE: hem p sure this is a hit i'll expand later-
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this post is a really good indicator of a part of what i'm seeing. worth noting as well that hem + furtive have a conversation about how scummy greeting is while both vote parking (furtive in particular is voting clidd "for pressure"), and neither player thinks that's remotely odd.In post 848, Roden wrote:In post 659, humaneatingmonkey wrote: time for my subjective feelings:
furtive is missing a soul in this game.
It does not take much for HEM to come around to a town!Furtive read, or at least an implied town read since he doesn't want to actually commit to calling Furtive town. Look at their interactions between those two posts I quoted. HEM basically brings out the kiddie gloves, giving off zero aggression and only throwing him softball questions so he can explain his reads as concisely and with as much nuance as possible. It is a VASTLY different interaction than the one he had with me, even though he outright called Furtive soulless and implied that it was a scum tell. It comes across like he doesn't want Furtive to be shown in a negative light, and honestly Furtive doesIn post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote: furtive no longer is soulless. i think he just ran out of fucks to give since i last saw himlooka lot townier after they finish talking.
However, there's a small problem here.
Furtive metas reads me as town, and he thinks HEM's case is baseless. Yet there's been zero objections to my wagon, unless you count this?In post 579, furtiveglance wrote:
His was a reasonable response to a pretty baseless attack, at least that's how I saw itIn post 523, OopsieDaisy wrote:
Whilst I've got you here, what makes Roden towny to you after the exchange with HEM?In post 483, furtiveglance wrote:
I did think you meant that one, just making sureIn post 482, Elements wrote: The one that just happened and is multiple pages long
I think Roden's towny
I townread Roden before that as well, I gather his scumgame is pretty threadbare
Pooky said in a previous game that if Roden posts he's town - idk how fair that is but it was accurate to that game.
Which doesn't accomplish much of anything. So why isn't Furtive doing anything to stop a wagon he believes will be a mis-elim? Why did he and HEM talk about reads on several other players but leave their completely opposite reads on me out of the conversation? They're ignoring the elephant in the room and it stands out to me.In post 780, furtiveglance wrote:
I don't want Roden to claim. I want clidd to claim!In post 774, humaneatingmonkey wrote: the greeting one is because i haven't townread greeting, and can be convinced to vote him if that's the only option open to me.
luckily, everyone seems down to see roden claim.
furtive is now flipped scum so this is a really bad look for hem
there's some other stuff too lemme finish up in case i dramatically change my mind or smth-
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by name, by nature.-
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onto 1200 d1 home stretch heeeeck yeah-
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i'm so sorry i need to run soon but i've finished d1 and like, i'm pretty sure i'm right about hem, if not it's just dragons, failing that it's bob, but i'm pretty sure i'm right.
ckd is absolutely town.
gera is, to my extreme surprise, probably town!
is emperor/bob town? i don't really know they haven't done much yet (but i liked ~2 things)
is dragons town? like, maybe that world exists. if we're in that world, scum are absolutely fucking wild this game and i can explain why later.
hem has been the strongest voice in the game & has consistently pushed throughout the d1 i've read, but he has consistently missed the mark.
1) on day one, there was a false dichotomy in the [roden, ckd] lim. when roden towned it up, hem went for ckd. when ckd towned it up, he went back to roden. the other viable options were clidd (which never got traction, probably in part because he was a mason with two swing voters) or greeting. this false dichotomy benefits greeting alone.
2) hem was aware of greeting's scumminess, and there are *multiple* points at which hem should have been biting on that and interrogating greeting. he failed to do so at every opportunity.
3) hem absolutely roasted ~half the playerlist, nearly all town and one scum - furtive. his interrogation of town players was consistently lengthy and thorough and forced them to evaluate. he randomly decided he agreed with furtive after like a third of a conversation, and never reevaluated. part of this lack of evaluation was not evaluating furtive's greeting scumread, which he claimed to agree with.
4) the gamestate of d1 was in a stranglehold. there were other voices in the thread capable of taking the reins, but they were not able to. being a mason, mt's attentions were divided. ckd was absent. i get the impression oopsie could have lit shit on fire on another day but i think her energies were spent solving other stuff. hem had the absolute run of the thread on day one, and as a result the gamestate benefited whatever angle hem was pushing. as outlined in point #1, this was scum motivated or a very misguided townie. i feel really bad to lay this blame at a single player's feet, but hem was absolutely the captain of day one and there's a pretty clear abuse of power.
5) takutai is a really fucking weird n1 kill. you would expect scum to go for a fairly strong, widely-townread voice. i understand hem isn't a perfect kill after he led the town down a toilet on d1, but he's kind of the obvious kill to disrupt town cohesion? i'd argue oopsie would also have been a decent kill to disrupt cohesion, but i think hem remaining alive with oopsie dead (especially with ckd onto oopsie) would have put the spotlight back on hem. i'm going to make some points:
5a) takutai wasn't a major voice for a lot of the phase, but they were a cohesive voice when it counted.
5b) takutai did have some posts which make sense as a tpr. i think hem is the only person who picked this up really (297). i can expand.
5c) takutai's reads were, like, not accurate. they had el/oopsie/gera as the scumteam for the better part of the phase, and had greeting as locktown which wasn't evaluated until the end of the phase.
with the kills we've seen + what we know of the masons, please consider that this is a scumpool of 2-3 town, and a locktown of 1 scum. deciding on this kill would *not* have been trivial.
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ok gotta run. i can do a better case expanding on where i'm seeing these things against hem (with post references and all!). i can expand on why scum!dragons/klick is a really weird reality. i can expand on why ckd is town, but i don't really want to. i can expand on why gera is unaligned. lemme know what will help.
if this all happened on d2 already and i'm dumb let me know, but like. sure hem could be town here. but he could absolutely be scum. he just keeps doing things which align too closely with what the scumteam needs to happen to win. his negligence has had a tendency to benefit scum. his deliberate actions have had a tendency to benefit scum. at times he's seemed 'tonally towny', or even worse, convincing, when he did it. but there's too obvious a pattern of scum-siding here to look past. if it walks like mafia, talks like mafia and makes cute monkey noises like mafia, we need to kill it.
also consider if we're epic wrong and hem+dragons is actually town/town, then dragons is forced to evaluate the game and we get a really cool new perspective which can no longer afford to be tunneled-
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stop defending yourself. we already know your rhetoric is good, i'm confirmed town and literally above going down the rabbit hole with you. make a better case if you want to survive today-
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u bussing after that d1 makes a lot of sense but I need to do the full read.
sorry you're so charismatic and persuasive if you were a lesser monkey I'd have no qualms with going into the night with you still alive-
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hem/greeting d1 literally looks like scum theatre
i literally don't trust y'all to lim hem on d5 and he's like, clearly aligned with flipped scum. i'm not moving my vote unless it's to save from a no-lim or if i have a huge change of heart.-
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In post 2140, the worst wrote: i'm so sorry i need to run soon but i've finished d1 and like, i'm pretty sure i'm right about hem, if not it's just dragons, failing that it's bob, but i'm pretty sure i'm right.
ckd is absolutely town.
gera is, to my extreme surprise, probably town!
is emperor/bob town? i don't really know they haven't done much yet (but i liked ~2 things)
is dragons town? like, maybe that world exists. if we're in that world, scum are absolutely fucking wild this game and i can explain why later.
hem has been the strongest voice in the game & has consistently pushed throughout the d1 i've read, but he has consistently missed the mark.
1) on day one, there was a false dichotomy in the [roden, ckd] lim. when roden towned it up, hem went for ckd. when ckd towned it up, he went back to roden. the other viable options were clidd (which never got traction, probably in part because he was a mason with two swing voters) or greeting. this false dichotomy benefits greeting alone.
2) hem was aware of greeting's scumminess, and there are *multiple* points at which hem should have been biting on that and interrogating greeting. he failed to do so at every opportunity.
3) hem absolutely roasted ~half the playerlist, nearly all town and one scum - furtive. his interrogation of town players was consistently lengthy and thorough and forced them to evaluate. he randomly decided he agreed with furtive after like a third of a conversation, and never reevaluated. part of this lack of evaluation was not evaluating furtive's greeting scumread, which he claimed to agree with.
4) the gamestate of d1 was in a stranglehold. there were other voices in the thread capable of taking the reins, but they were not able to. being a mason, mt's attentions were divided. ckd was absent. i get the impression oopsie could have lit shit on fire on another day but i think her energies were spent solving other stuff. hem had the absolute run of the thread on day one, and as a result the gamestate benefited whatever angle hem was pushing. as outlined in point #1, this was scum motivated or a very misguided townie. i feel really bad to lay this blame at a single player's feet, but hem was absolutely the captain of day one and there's a pretty clear abuse of power.
5) takutai is a really fucking weird n1 kill. you would expect scum to go for a fairly strong, widely-townread voice. i understand hem isn't a perfect kill after he led the town down a toilet on d1, but he's kind of the obvious kill to disrupt town cohesion? i'd argue oopsie would also have been a decent kill to disrupt cohesion, but i think hem remaining alive with oopsie dead (especially with ckd onto oopsie) would have put the spotlight back on hem. i'm going to make some points:
5a) takutai wasn't a major voice for a lot of the phase, but they were a cohesive voice when it counted.
5b) takutai did have some posts which make sense as a tpr. i think hem is the only person who picked this up really (297). i can expand.
5c) takutai's reads were, like, not accurate. they had el/oopsie/gera as the scumteam for the better part of the phase, and had greeting as locktown which wasn't evaluated until the end of the phase.
with the kills we've seen + what we know of the masons, please consider that this is a scumpool of 2-3 town, and a locktown of 1 scum. deciding on this kill would *not* have been trivial.
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ok gotta run. i can do a better case expanding on where i'm seeing these things against hem (with post references and all!). i can expand on why scum!dragons/klick is a really weird reality. i can expand on why ckd is town, but i don't really want to. i can expand on why gera is unaligned. lemme know what will help.
if this all happened on d2 already and i'm dumb let me know, but like. sure hem could be town here. but he could absolutely be scum. he just keeps doing things which align too closely with what the scumteam needs to happen to win. his negligence has had a tendency to benefit scum. his deliberate actions have had a tendency to benefit scum. at times he's seemed 'tonally towny', or even worse, convincing, when he did it. but there's too obvious a pattern of scum-siding here to look past. if it walks like mafia, talks like mafia and makes cute monkey noises like mafia, we need to kill it.
also consider if we're epic wrong and hem+dragons is actually town/town, then dragons is forced to evaluate the game and we get a really cool new perspective which can no longer afford to be tunneled
@bob & el in particular -- can y'all talk to me about why you don't scumread hem, or don't think he's a threat? i get not having dragons cleared (though i will case for why he's a fucking goofy partner to flipped scum later). but hem is actively aligned with flipped scum, and is a very dangerous player to keep alive. dragons is a safe, easy flip now or later. he's also tunnelled on HEM (as am I), and if he's wrong will need to dramatically re-evaluate. i have no idea why either of you are voting for dragons, except that you're both happy with the POE. this isn't the way to clear that POE out. with respect, what the hell are you both doing?
keen to hear from gera & ckd too but understand one is on another vibe the other is v/la-
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why do people keep foreshadowing lmao heeelpIn post 1424, clidd wrote: Ok, maybe all scums are inside of this group: [Furtive, Greeting, Flippy, Klick, Gera].
If only 2 on above, I guess there is a world in which I'm wrong about HEM, and he is playing with our perceptions. If that's the case, then I'm going 0/4 against scum!HEM.
Anyways, the simplest solution is the first one.
I could go for either Furtive or Greeting here.-
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it's hem. i haven't had scum on lock so hard since a looong time before my hiatus.
hem 80%
dragons 10%
bob 6%
gera 3%
ckd 1%
kinda thing. my case is going to be an eldritch horror.-
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i need to go out to a lunch please don't end the phase unless we power-lim hem-
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we have a comfortable POE of [bob, hem, dragons] rn but who are the people supporting it?
bob, hem, el, myself (+ maybe Dragons)?
gera and ckd are our wildcards, and our most free-spirited players, and those are 2/3 of the players who would form final 3. this gamestate means it's our game to lose. I'll make my case for why monkey is scum and why he needs to die long before final 3.-
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nevermind ckd claimed scum easy gameIn post 1692, curiouskarmadog wrote:to be honest, i thought you were scum....(see what I did there?)-
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