Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[Adel]

hello everyone.

unvote

it will take me at least 7 days to get a good handle on this game.

Please don't let the game stall while people wait for me to post.

thanks.

[Adel]

a quick question: who thought that Puta Puta might be Gimbo before he was lynched?

[Adel]

the scummiest post I've seen in a long time:

Awww man, we lost a gun inventer, that sucks. That could have come in useful later.

Still got no clue how we were supposed to guess Puta was a cop, been over every word and it still doesn't make sense.

Speaking of which, do we have any other investigators who could have found stuff last night?

seriously, this is who I am replacing?

[Adel]

yup happy holiday's adel

so why is your vote on me?

Also, why are people being allowed to lurk through this game so easily?

while I am rereading, I think it is time to build a pressure wagon:

vote: IH

Post or Perish!

[Adel]

tubby: do you mind answering some questions about the case against darkdude?

1. What do you think the legitimate reasons (i.e. non-bullshit reasons) to be voting for darkdude are?
2. Do you think that all three people voting for darkdude are scum?
3. If you think at least one of the people voting for darkdude are not scum, why do you think that a townie is voting for darkdude?

[Adel]

1)do you believe the case on you/BoW is valid?

I recognize that BOW made posts that contain many tells that can be counted as scummy. I believe that BOW was probably a VI, and those tells from his posts should probably be discarded as not being likely to correlate with alignment.

2)do you think you should full claim since Bow kinda soft claimed?

I had no idea he softclaimed. I do not think it is a good idea for me to claim at this point. Do you want me to claim?

3)who do you think is scummiest on your wagon and why?

I do not know who the scummiest person is. I haven't read the game deeply yet, and I haven't even started a full analysis of it. It will probably take me until about Thursday of next week to post any conclusions that I can be really confident of.

[Adel]

I just noticed that Ectomancer and IH haven't posted in the last three days.

mod:

would you please prod Ectomancer and IH?

[Adel]

I just noticed that Ectomancer and IH haven't posted in the last three days.

mod:

would you please prod Ectomancer and IH?

nevermind, I forgot about

All Mod communication should go through PMs, please do not request me to do things in thread. You may never quote anything you received as PM from me.

from the rules.

sorry.

[Adel]

... not to mention that I missed where the mod posted in 358 that he just prodded IH.

[Adel]

However please note I will be watching your posts closely

Good! Since you are watching closely, can you spot any errors in this:

[Adel]

tubby:
still alive in

• 1. Xyl's Relative Chaos - Night 3
  2. Mafia 88- Return to New Catania- Day One
  3. Newbie 673: (Day 2)
  4. Family Guy Mafia - FCC gets da boot (Night 1)
  5. Mafia 82: International (Day 4, four dead again)

Finished Games:

• 1. Mini 669: Mod Abandoned -- townie?
  2. Newbie 644: Kodak City, Muffin District (wrecked) -- scum
  3. Newbie 675: Zeroville Heights (Fell Off a Cliff) -- townie

Wow, you have had horrible luck with your games not finishing. Sorry about that.

[Adel]

I need to reread again, from where I left off last time.

Vote: Tarballs,

because I remember being suspicious of him.

I don't understand something about day 1: on page 6 we have

Tarball did tons of fence-sitting pointing out how he doesn't like this or that but no solid FoS or Vote. gorball does the same thing, criticizing almost everyone and in the end abruptly votes for Rage which makes no sense. Very scummy imo.

and

As for Tarballs, there is now a pattern of joining big wagons at opportune times. I don't know if that's deliberate, or it just happened that way. He hasn't posted enough for me to make a full judgment. The only time his one big/useful post mentioned Puta was about him being scummy for the "killing a cat" comment, which I took to be at best a joke on Tarballs' part. It feels like EasyWagoning at the moment.

and

Ecto, I'm not saying everyone on that wagon is suspect. Just a couple people. Given that you're not on any wagon, I'm also wondering why you're defending people without letting them answer on their own.

As for Tarballs, there is now a pattern of joining big wagons at opportune times. I don't know if that's deliberate, or it just happened that way. He hasn't posted enough for me to make a full judgment. The only time his one big/useful post mentioned Puta was about him being scummy for the "killing a cat" comment, which I took to be at best a joke on Tarballs' part. It feels like EasyWagoning at the moment.

Defending? It's called educating. You showed a lack of understanding regarding pressure votes being used to change the behavior of a player. Case, point, and example laid out for you right here in this game.
In any case, assume you could interpret my post as defending someone, what relevance would my lack of a presence on a wagon have to do with that defense?

Now a couple questions of you. If you are so sold on Tarball, why is your vote still on Rage, who is one of the recipients of Tarball's votes that you are using to make your case? Is that a sloppy bus? If not, isn't your case on Tarball dependent upon Rage being town?

Also of interest...why would you give Puta a clean slate? What comment would have inspired you to make that statement?

Summary: I see you mudslinging with seemingly contradictory premises. Your vote is sticking to Rage while you probe reactions to your statements about 2 other players.
Then, on the flip side, you give a "clean slate" to a player at L-2, whose alignment just might get revealed today.

Isn't that amusing?

and

Defending? It's called educating. You showed a lack of understanding regarding pressure votes being used to change the behavior of a player. Case, point, and example laid out for you right here in this game.
In any case, assume you could interpret my post as defending someone, what relevance would my lack of a presence on a wagon have to do with that defense?

I have no problem with pressure votes. I understand them and don't need someone to explain them to me. I felt that two of the five votes currently on the wagon were made strangely, and I pointed that out. I'm still wondering why you tried to answer the questions I had for those players yourself.

Now a couple questions of you. If you are so sold on Tarball, why is your vote still on Rage, who is one of the recipients of Tarball's votes that you are using to make your case? Is that a sloppy bus? If not, isn't your case on Tarball dependent upon Rage being town?

I'm... not sold on Tarballs.

He hasn't posted enough for me to make a full judgment.

I do agree that my case on Tarballs probably falls down if Rage isn't town. Aren't I allowed to think that two generally opposing players are scummy in their own way?

and

In my opinion, I'd prefer Tarball's lynch than Puta Puta's. It doesn't make any sense to me why anyone would want to breadcrumb as a killer if they were scum, quite the opposite I'd think, and Puta Puta is likely to get targeted during the night anyways if he lives today. I mean, that's just WIFOM at this point, but if Town thinks he's scummy, either way (pro or anti-town) he's not much of a threat today. It also gives any potential investigators purpose during the night, but let's not talk too much about that touchy subject, eh?

Now, I'm not saying I believe the "oh, that? That was meant for another game!" excuse he's got going on right now, but I don't think there's enough evidence for me to believe he's scum and I think there's more enough reason to believe Tarballs is instead.

Unvote

Vote: Tarballs

all of these were posted within 8 hours. Tarballs is mentioned far more times on page 6 than on any other page. He picks up one vote, and then people stop talking about him. Why is that?

16 hours later Ecto votes Puta with 147, and ~ 4 hours later

Hmm. I'd say Tarballs and Ecto may be scumpartners. Ecto started pushing Puta's wagon not when it was valid, but when more and more people expressed suspicion of Tarballs. Deflecting attention much?

vote: Ectomancer

@ Korts: why did you focus on and vote for Ecto instead of Tarball at this point?

There was more overall suspicion on Tar, and one person (Rage) was actually voting for Tar.

about 2.5 hours after tubby placed Puta Puta at lynch -1 with post 210, Korts made the very next post:

also don't like the "just an average townie" soft claim by BoW. He's certainly becoming more suspicious, but it's not quite enough for me to change my vote yet.

Okay, so you had to bring the "soft claim" up again. Why? What does it prove in terms of scumminess?

As of now in the reread, Macavity is leading my scumlist by far, with Tarballs a not-very-close second. I'll continue later, but I have other things to do.

the full post is very long, and Korts doesn't mention Puta even once. Note that Korts vote was actually on Puta Puta at this time.

@ Korts: why were you willing to leave Puta Puta at lynch -1 when Macavity was the scummiest on your list, and Tarballs (who actually had a vote on him) was a distant second?

~~~

To be frank, I can imagine MacavityLock being a vigkill. He was under considerable pressure yesterday, therefore I don't think he fits the profile of a mafia NK.

I still haven't gotten round to a reread, though. Give me 'til weekend.

Which posts show that MacavityLock was under "considerable pressure" during day 1?

~~~

@ ThAdmiral: yesm I don't have any feeling about the darkdude case yet since I haven't looked at him yet, I haven't eliminated anyone from suspicion yet but I am working on it.

[Adel]

Korts: why did you focus on and vote for Ecto instead of Tarball at this point?

Because it was Ecto who seemed to be deflecting, and not Tarballs.

but logically your expressed reasons for being suspicious of Ecto only apply if Tarballs were scum. So it seemed odd to me that you would vote for Ecto rather than Tarballs.

Which posts show that MacavityLock was under "considerable pressure" during day 1?

I don't have the time to go back and find the specific posts, but I expressed solid suspicion on Macavity, and I remember Ecto doing so, too. At the time I posted the "considerable pressure" post, I also believed that ThAdmiral had fingered him as a suspect, too (apparently not, though). Three people is considerable pressure, no?

Please find, quote, and post your evidence... when you can find the time.

[Adel]

Adel, I have no idea how to use your chart...

it shows all voting activity for day 1. All of the information presented in the chart is totally objective and verifiable.



I'll explain the top two thirds first:

the first column is the post number for each row. Only posts where players voted and some of the posts where the mod listed a vote count are listed.

the next twelve columns are each headed by player names. each column under each player's name shows who they were voting for at each moment in the game, as well as how many votes the person they were voting for had at the time.

posts where there was a vote count (52, 130, 152, 209, 232) show how many votes each person had on them according to that votecount.

the first column after the player names is "wagon increase" -- which show which wagon increased during each post. Read "Rage 1->2" as "the wagon on rage increased from one vote to two votes at this post".

The next column, "wagon decrease" shows which wagon decreased in strength due to the vote cast in that row.

the last column, "page number" is the page number the post occurred on.

as an example, just looking at the tenth row provides the following information:

• 1. a vote was placed at post 27
  2. the person voted for was Rage, and McL voted for him
  3. McL's vote for Rage increased the Rage wagon from one vote to two votes
  4. McL's vote for Rage took his vote off of BOW, which decreased the size of BOW's wagon from three votes to two votes.
  5. At post 27 the votecount would be: BOW(2) Rage(2) and Ecto(1)
  6. Chuck and Rage were voting for BOW at post 27
  7. darkdude and McL were both voting for Rage as of post 27
  8. Korts was voting for Ecto at post 27

looking at the next row, you can see that Korts followed by placing his vote for Rage at post 28.

[Adel]

the bottom third:

the first row below the final votecount row is also the first row that lacks a post number. It shows how many votes each player coast during day 1. Korts cast the most votes (5) and Puta Puta cast the fewest votes (O). At the far right of that row is the cell titles "# of players willing to vote for". That cell is the header for the information below it -- which shows how many players voted for each player during the day. Puta Puta had 7 players willing to vote for him, Rage had 5, BOW had 4, ect.

the information below the total number of votes each player cast shows who they voted for, and how many times. Using Korts as the example again, it shows that he voted for Ecto twice, Puta twice, and Rage once.

~~~


Does all of that explain my chart well enough for the rest of you to be able to use it? I usually have it in front of me when I am rereading the game. It helps me catch stuff that I would totally miss otherwise... for instance when I was first reading the game I thought the unvote at post 185 took a vote off of Puta Puta.

unvote

On one hand I'd rather see Puta replaced than go down a man. On the other, replacements in these cases typically get a free ride.

can you see how I made that mistake? The chart helps me keep shit like that straight really easily.

[Adel]

[Adel]

beyond not posting, I think this is a great illustration of how gorckat/IH have clearly lurked through this game.

The other possible lurkers are: ThAdmiral and Tarballs, and tubby and chuck after them.

A question for our lurkers (ThAdmiral,Tarballs, tubby, and IH):

Who do you think has been vote hopping more: Korts or Darkdude?
Why do you or don't you count that as a scum tell against either of them?

[Adel]

thanks for pointing those out. I really advise people to print them out (as large as possible and practical) and take notes (and correct errors!) on them.

I just noticed that in 380, under the Day 1 area, I moved the vote for McL from Rage's column to my column, throwing off the "Day 1 totals" as well as the "Totals to date".

[Adel]

that was an almost perfect non-answer. Would you mind trying again?

[Adel]

mmm.. you've allready identified that

I think its more about timing and when the cast them and why, if lets say they just post a bs reason to vote then jumped on the next available wagon for no reason that to me would be scummy. but if your changing your vote to add pressure or to show agreement for another case, than thats more town

you just haven't applied that criteria to the behavior of Korts and dark dude in this game.

Look at the timing of their votes, when they cast them, and why... has either player shown a pattern of hopping onto wagons without sincere & (in your view) reasons for joining those wagon?

Which votes in particular lead you to think that one player is more or less scummy than the other? .. and why?

[Adel]

EBWOP:A question for our lurkers (ThAdmiral,Tarballs, tubby,

chuck

and IH):

Who do you think has been vote hopping more: Korts or Darkdude?
Why do you or don't you count that as a scum tell against either of them?

[Adel]

edit by way of post -- I left chuck out of the original list of lurkers I wanted an answer from, so the EBWOP corrected that omission.

Has anyone noticed that he hasn't posted since I replaced in?

[Adel]

Also, anyone who's played with me in the past year knows that until I get caught up this is normal for me.

If you are saying that it is normal for you to get replaced, I agree.

[Adel]

Right, I have no idea how to help this game along at this moment.

Adel, I will have the time to go back for those posts the weekend earliest.

Adel:

Who do

you

think has been vote hopping more: Korts or Darkdude?
Why do you or don't you count that as a scum tell against either of them?

how about helping to get the lurkers to answer first?

[Adel]

this level of participation is crap.

all of the lurks can't be scum, but their collective behavior sure does make it easier for scum to win.

[Adel]

I think that darkdude is scum, and either Korts or Ectomancer is bussing him, but probably not both of them.

I think we should lynch darkdude today, and either Korts or Ectomancer tomorrow after darkdude proves to be scum. I wouldn't normally suggest a lynch order like this, bu I expect to get night killed (WIFOM TRAP) tonight.

[Adel]

oh damn, I nearly forgot!

unvote, vote:darkdude

[Adel]

ok, after darkdude proves to be scum, lynch ecto first!

[Adel]

thanks for asking that question Rage. it forced me to take a second look at everything, and I don't think that darkdude is the right lynch for today.

unvote, vote:tubby

for:

• 1. lurking through the game without getting replaced
  2. being a possible alt
  3. following my vote onto IH
  4. only voting for a townie on day 1

[Adel]

Some players (TSQ being a prime example) adopt alts so they can avoid a meta of lurking as scum, and so when they are lurking we won't be able to call them out on it by pointing out in how many other games they play.

When you compare the set of lurkers with the set of players who are alts (which I don't have hard data for, unfortunately) where those sets overlap players are much more likely to be scum.

3) i felt i should vote him for pressure to resond since he has responded less than i have

Scum players who choose to lurk as a tactic make usually sure they are not the least active player in a game.

The way you and IH always seem to respond in the thread when you

have to

suggests that both of you are following the game much more closely than your activity may suggest.

Were you going to unvote IH as soon as he provided some response?

~~~

@ThAdmiral: please provide links to your last three games as scum.

[Adel]

@darkdude: why don't you think Ecto is scum. Please provide specific information. The more quickly you answer and the more information you provide, the less scummy you will appear, and the less likely you will to be lynched today.

Please hurry.

Thanks.

[Adel]

Thanks for clarifying; although I still don't follow why you think tubby is an alt. Can you/do you want to elaborate?

read his posts from when he first joined mafiascum.net. I think of it as a "newbie check". His first posts really strike me as a person with a solid understanding of mafia pretending not to know the jargon. One of his first posts where he asked what it meant to be a lurker really raised a flag in my mind to make me think he is an alt.

I don't really like the implicit suggestion that tubby is now definitely today's lynch, especially in such a "sneaky" way as in a quote tag, however. Like you're trying to plant the thought in others' subconscious.

Bold letters are hardly subliminal, or sneaky.

4. only voting for a townie on day 1

Would you elaborate on this, please?

If a player only casts one vote, and if that vote is for a townie, that player needs to be help accountable. This specific scumtell also applies to chuck,, but was mitigated by chuck asking to be replaced out.

Also, since everyone who's active and had your previous questions directed at them answered, please answer them yourself, now. I'll quote for your ease:

Who do you think has been vote hopping more: Korts or Darkdude?
Why do you or don't you count that as a scum tell against either of them?

No. I am not happy with the answers I've gotten yet.
Also, I'm working my ass off and providing tons of information. That I am willing to lynch darkdude today, but I am not willing to lynch you today, should be enough. Am I really a priority suspect for you right now? I will probably get my alignment revealed soon enough by nk (WIFOM TRAP!) that trying to get me to answer questions is a waste of my time.

[Adel]

The more quickly you answer and the more information you provide,

the less scummy you will appear

, and the less likely you will to be lynched today.

Posting further from the deadline is a towntell?

sort of.

I believe that the difference between being pro-town and anti-town isn't quite the same as the difference between being likely-town and likely-scum.

I think of it like this:


Getting game changing information out in the open while there is still time to analyze it helps the town make a good lynch decision before deadline. (pro-town behavior)

If all he has to do is tell the truth, it shouldn't take him very long to hammer out a rather long and dense post. (pro-town behavior)

If it take him a while (longer than a 12 hours?) to write a really information-rich post (anti-town behavior) then we know that it is more likely that he had to think about and plan his bullshit, and is therefor more likely to be scum.

[Adel]

@darkdude: why don't you think Ecto is scum. Please provide specific information. The more quickly you answer and the more information you provide, the less scummy you will appear, and the less likely you will to be lynched today.

Don't think he is scum? I don't recall saying that.

you didn't explicitly say that. Reading deeply into your posts made me think that you've come to that conclusion. I suspect that you may know that he is town because you are scum, or are scum with him. I'm giving you a chance if you are town to explain how you honestly came to that conclusion.

There's just nothing to suggest him being more likely to be scum than other players.

That is an example of what always strikes me as a bullshit non-answer. Most players make these kind of statements that don't really say anything. I make them as well.

Please try again, if you don't mind, but put some real opinion into it next time.

Right now I'm most suspicious of Korts, but even that is mostly gut feeling and guess.

You are the most likely lynch at this point, and all have to show for whatever effort you've actually placed into finding scum in this game is "gut feeling" and "guess". Have you actually been trying to figure out who is scum in this game?

To me Ecto seems like a very tunnel vision stricken town

WHY?

Scum would probably pursue one of the lurkers IMHO.

how many scum do you think are lurkers right now?
how many scum do you think aren't lurkers?
who do you count as "lurkers"?
who do you count as "not lurkers"?

This is an interrogation. Your continued failure to promptly and fully answer these questions will be considered evidence that you are scum.

[Adel]

Wait, Rage and Chuck still voting on Adel? For Wombat's mistakes or something else?

was this an attempt to distract people away from my attack against you?

you don't need to worry about why people are voting for me right now. please focus on answering my questions for you.

Just to be clear, I have not reached the conclusion that you are scum, but I have generated a couple lines of questioning that should confirm your alignment one way or the other. If you cooperate I should be able to conclude that you are town, and move on to another player.

The faster you answer the better the chances the town has of winning.

[Adel]

@ ThAdmiral: thanks.

@ insanepenguin02: Welcome to the game! Have you played mafia before? I posted some diagrams on page 16 that may help you read though the game. If you can spot any mistakes on those diagrams, I would appreciate it if you pointed those mistakes out. Please read the entire game carefully before you vote for anyone.

@ Korts: You've almost convinced me that he isn't an alt. You've certainly raised reasonable doubts. I think my case against him is robust enough to still apply even if he isn't an alt.

meanwhile, I still not satisfied with the answers darkdude has applied so far.

[Adel]

The reservation I have against lynching darkdude is partially because he is one of the more active players (bothering to post is pro-town, and a game without posting is pretty much a scum auto-win) and his activity level in this game is about the same has activity level in the one other game he is currently playing. If this game had more active players I would be more willing to lynch him.

[Adel]

make that "modding" instead of "playing"

[Adel]

unvote, vote:darkdude

that makes four votes on him. Time to claim darkdude.

with 10 alive it should take 6 to lynch.

[Adel]

I am watcher.

Night 0 no one targeted ThAdmiral
Night 1 no one targeted Korts

Why did you target Korts?

[Adel]

I think that darkdude is scum, and either Korts or Ectomancer is bussing him, but probably not both of them.

I think we should lynch darkdude today, and either Korts or Ectomancer tomorrow after darkdude proves to be scum. I wouldn't normally suggest a lynch order like this, bu I expect to get night killed (WIFOM TRAP) tonight.

I am glad I didn't die last night, especially since

Unvote: Rage
Vote: tubby216

I have questioned Rage to my content now. Doesn't seem more likely to be scum or town at the moment; I am only wary of the way he responds to things. However so far my meta on him is saying town. To those who don't know, my good friend Rage here has had many games with me.

AFAIK tubby and gorckat are the only ones not to have posted yet.

Chuckrock has made two posts. Puta has made two posts. Neither had much to contribute.

in addition to rage's softclaim is raising a bunch of flags for me.

consider:
1. darkdude and rage have played a lot with each other.
2. a fake claim that lynches your scum buddy is a near auto-win gambit
3. darkdude unvoted rage at post 49, which stalled the rage wagon that was pretty strong on page 2.

also,

I play RL every day with darkdude, and, yes, we generally end up massclaiming when we know it's lynch or lose. However, usually anyone who asks for massclaim "too early" gets a heck of a lot of suspicion on them and then ends up being the lynch for the day. I'm not saying Brain of Wombat should be today's lynch, I'm saying I'm suspicious of him because it's behavior that I've seen scum try to pull. Along with the inclusion of roles that have an ambiguous alignment, I think Wombat's behavior, as I mentioned earlier, matches what I presume a scum's version of one of them to be. I want to hear from him to be certain of his intentions, instead of other players jetting in to say that he's just a newb and not to take his actions seriously, as though they want to defend him merely to put suspicion on me. Which is precisely what you are doing.

Now, what I mean by him being a newb not being too much of a factor about his actions so far is that would it not be easier to tell if he's a newbie scum than a newbie townie if he's asking for things a townie shouldn't be, first thing in the game? You can blame it on newbiness and say that he might have heard it done somewhere before and, thus, tried it out here, but how can you be so sure about this if 1) he hasn't said a word about it himself, and 2) He's town, and therefore has less of a chance of players sticking up for him (and if he's a mason setting up someone for starting a case on him, there's the possibility of a scum Neighbour).

In short, I'm saying we can't take anything anyone says to heart unless it can be backed up by logical proof, like darkdude's suggestion of No Lynch to make the numbers better for town.

I think a fakeclaim gambit to buss a scumbuddy is something they have developed in their daily play. It would take coordination to pull off.

Finally, the way that darkdude quite as soon as Rage softclaimed does not sit well with me. If I were darkdude I would be all about getting more information out of Rage before my lynch. It would be really important to figure out if Rage was a RB or a Jailkeeper or a Tracker, or possibly even a watcher who targeted ThAdmiral N0 or the person who got a result from an Amnesiac Watcher who targeted ThAdmiral N0.

~~~

In other news, Kison should post a bunch of high quality words soon.

[Adel]

EBWOP: Finally, the way that darkdude

quite

quit as soon as Rage softclaimed does not sit well with me.

~~~

I don't know what I want from Rage at this point. If he actually is a town powerrole, I don't want him to reveal which flavor of powerrole he is.

Also, if one of you is a doc, please don't assume that he is innocent if you protected him last night. Part of their possible gambit may include choosing not to kill, or perhaps the scum killer was roleblocked.

If a bodyguard protected Rage last night, it may be a good idea to claim during this day.

[Adel]

what do you guys make of this:

ThAdmiral mentioned darkdude 13 times, and tubby twice.
darkdude mentioned ThAdmiral 8 times, and tubby 4 times.
Tubby mentioned darkdude 14 times and ThAdmiral only once.

[Adel]

here are my last three games as scum:
(i realised I could look through all my old posts through my profile)

friends and enemies 2.0
strawberry mafia
texas justice mafia

I advise other players to take a look at friends and enemies 2.0 -- ThAdmiral seems to have a pretty mature playstyle where he plays in a uniformly lurkish manner until late in the game when he starts producing informative posts. His style is static and does not seem to change with alignment.

In the other two games ThAdmiral was eliminated before he moved from lurkerish (like he has been in this game) to informative.

If we get him to produce a hoard of information-dense posts during this day, I expect that our chances of winning if he is scum will increase by a fair amount. If he is town, then our chances of winning should also increase since he is an experienced and astute player.

[Adel]

I think that darkdude is scum, and either Korts or Ectomancer is bussing him, but probably not both of them.

I think we should lynch darkdude today, and either Korts or Ectomancer tomorrow after darkdude proves to be scum. I wouldn't normally suggest a lynch order like this, bu I expect to get night killed (WIFOM TRAP) tonight.

I'm not certain why you dodged left here Adel. I mean, I bit down on Darkdude hard and wouldn't let go. I defended it against Rage, the claim didn't phase me a bit and that was before it was said that Darkdude couldn't have done anything on N0.

It was part of my (WIFOM TRAP).

But, in the same vein as your thoughts Adel, when I read your posts I was recalled to an earlier interaction between myself and Rage. What do you think about this?

I basically see it how you do. I'll take a look at it, in context later. Do you happen to recall the post number?

Rage got frustrated with Darkdude for claiming watcher instead of just the recipient of an investigation result. Finally decided to cut him loose with a bus, especially after I was unshaken by the claim and Adel led off with more questioning.

Sounds very possible to me. I think that how we didn't immediately accept darkdude's claim definitely placed more pressure on darkdude's scum buddies... and a rash move (or a planned move deployed prematurely) also seems pretty likely to me since scum generally think that their buddies seem more scummy to the rest of the town then their buddies actually are.

~~~

Something about Korts also raised flags for me while I was waiting to find out if I was NK'd or not... but now I can't remember what it was...

~~~

insanepenguin02 totally owes us a ton of words as well.

~~~

welcome to the game afatchic.

Have you finished reading it yet?

[Adel]

looking at your profile (1366 game posts, and 9.9 posts per day) at least we can reasonably expect you to be among the most active once you've caught up.

[Adel]

No worries. By looking at your profile (1366 game posts, and 9.9 posts per day) at least we can reasonably expect you to be among the most active once you've caught up.

[Adel]

3) I find it quite interesting how there was no kill tonight. My guess, from reading the storyline, would be a role blocker blocking the mafia chosen to make the kill. Didn't sound like a doctor protection.

Please expand upon this.
What about the storyline leads you to that conclusion?

[Adel]

I think that how we didn't immediately accept darkdude's claim definitely placed more pressure on darkdude's scum buddies... and a rash move (or a planned move deployed prematurely) also seems pretty likely to me since scum generally think that their buddies seem more scummy to the rest of the town then their buddies actually are.

... what?

You didn't say a word after darkdude claimed, and even if you wanted to I shouldn't be the one at blame.

Insanepenguin02 came out of nowhere, not soon after taking his vote off of darkdude immediately after he claimed, and put his vote right back on only accompanied by a "Whatever...". How is my counter-claim of evidence more suspicious than the act of denying you your voice about darkdude's claim?

One other thing. Why do you say "we didn't immediately accept darkdude's claim" even though you hadn't said a word? Sounds too much like trying to fit in with Town to me.

did you really not review the end of the day before hammering off this long post? ... or are you just trying to fast talk us?

vote:Rage

[Adel]

Currently writing my response. It make take a while because I've got a lot to say.

it took you almost 4 hours to type out your post at 520, but only 15 min (at most) to type out your post at 522?

1) I think insanepenguin02 could be scum with anyone, but I haven't heard enough from him to think any which way

why do you think insanepenguin02 could be scum?

Either that, or ThAdmiral is scum with darkdude because he quickly found his spot on the darkdude bandwagon when it was forming, and upon darkdude's questioning he simply said he found the case to be the strongest he had seen. He unvoted later after finding the argument on darkdude unappealing.

After darkdude's claim

, he ends up asking if he can be the hammer vote without any input about his thoughts on darkdude's claim. I'm keeping my eye on this.

he asked that following darkdude's claim of "scum" not "watcher".

[Adel]

ok, so here are rage's past games on this site. In any of those games has he posted a huge post similar in construction, tone, and style to the one at 520?

• Mini 630: Council of Eville townie, replaced in as a second townie. Mafia win.
  Mini 634 pro-town "scribe" (weak power role), werewolf win (note that ThAdmiral was pro-town in this game)
  Mini 665: Day 1 - Abandoned doctor. (afatchic was pro-town in this game)
  Mini 664 - AoaDA - Game Over townie, got replaced, mafia win.
  Newbie 602 townie, mafia win
  Mini 632 Scum (was lynched day 1, got in a little bit of trouble for outing one of his scum buddies before his lynch), town win.
  Newbie 640 townie, got replaced, mafia win
  Newbie 640 townie, mafia win

[Adel]

I think that how we didn't immediately accept darkdude's claim definitely placed more pressure on darkdude's scum buddies... and a rash move (or a planned move deployed prematurely) also seems pretty likely to me since scum generally think that their buddies seem more scummy to the rest of the town then their buddies actually are.

... what?

You didn't say a word after darkdude claimed, and even if you wanted to I shouldn't be the one at blame.

Insanepenguin02 came out of nowhere, not soon after taking his vote off of darkdude immediately after he claimed, and put his vote right back on only accompanied by a "Whatever...". How is my counter-claim of evidence more suspicious than the act of denying you your voice about darkdude's claim?

One other thing. Why do you say "we didn't immediately accept darkdude's claim" even though you hadn't said a word? Sounds too much like trying to fit in with Town to me.

did you really not review the end of the day before hammering off this long post? ... or are you just trying to fast talk us?

vote:Rage

In context, your first quote is about trying to make sense of why I, as scum, might have wanted darkdude lynched.

Anyways, I don't understand. Could you direct me to where you speak of darkdude's claim before Day 1 ends?

Day 1 I wasn't even in the game.
Right after he claimed "watcher" I questioned his claim, without unvoting, and right after he had scored a point by pointing out Ecto's lack of attention to detail (which is totally woth noting). Here you go:

I am watcher.

Night 0 no one targeted ThAdmiral
Night 1 no one targeted Korts

Why did you target Korts?

Could you also explain why you are voting for me?

Yes. I think that you are the right person to be voting for right now.

And, yes, I do make very long posts similar to the latest one.

Really? I can't find one that is more similar than this one, and you made it as scum. The only post of your's that I can find that is longer is a post by post analysis. This post from mini 634 seems similar in construction, but seems much more organized and coherent to me. This would be a great thing for ThAdmiral to weigh in on.

@ThAdmiral: is Rage's post at 520 in this game more similar to his post 167 in mini 632 or his post at 755 in mini 634?

[Adel]

@Korts: What can you tell us from comparing Tubby's performance in Xyl's Relative Chaos where he just beat you as scum with this game?


@Tubby, comparing ThAdmiral's performance in that game with his posts in this game, do you think he is more likely to be town or scum?

~~~

Between dardude's claim of watcher at 477 and his lynch, tubby did not post a single time, but he did manage to post in Xyl's Relative Chaos

43

minutes after dardude's claim of watcher.

@tubby why did you choose not to post in this game after darkdude's claim?

~~~

what do y'all think of these?

• 1.

  @Darkdude, when do you plan on roleclaiming?
  
  

  Unvote: Brain of Wombat/Adel

  
  
  I'm going to reconsider where my vote should be.

  2.

  My bad, forgot to respond to Rage.
  
  In the case of Rage vs Wombat, I definitely think it is suspicious that Rage attacked a newbie and then later backtracked saying he didn't know Wombat was new. Learning to find people's joining dates isn't hard - it's right under the avatar, and it's one of the first metas I started using when I started playing here. Lots of other players do it too, so I doubt you have not heard of this before.

  Even with this though, I think from what I know of Rage's meta, he is likely to be town. Rage does not pursue his cases so aggressively when he is scum, but does this all the time as town.

  3. Rage did not investigate me or Bow
  
  4. Rage voted for 2 people during day 1 of mini 630 (as town) made 7 votes against 4 different people during day 1 of mini 634 (as town) and only voted for 1 person during day 1 of Newbie 602 (as town) and only voted for 1 person during day 1 of this game.
  
  5. Rage really didn't express suspicion of other people very often in this game (until his post at 522).

[Adel]

vote: Rage

No-one hammer yet.

unvote

I am not willing to see him hammered yet.

I really want ThAdmiral, afatchic, Kison, and insanepenguin02 to post lots more.

[Adel]

Why are you so afraid of L-1? I'm not willing to see him hammered yet, either, but it's a good enough test keeping him one vote from a lynch.

In the last two runs of Lovers Mafia, Sensfan dropped a premature hammer. Once he was scum, and the second time he was town. He is a fairly experienced player who plays a lot of games, so I'm a bit more cautious than I used to be since I suspect that the recent meta has been too forgiving of hammers.

[Adel]

(note that he was lynched in both games, but I don't think he would've tried it either time if he didn't think he could get away with it.

[Adel]

(note that he was lynched in both games, but I don't think he would've tried it either time if he didn't think he could get away with it.)

Exactly. Others' opportunism is partly what having someone at L-1 for a longer duration is a good test of.

which is only a good test if he actually is a tracker, in which case I would rather not lynch him, plus we have at least one player that could throw the newbie card.

[Adel]

@ecto: please post links to your last three games as scum.

[Adel]

3) I find it quite interesting how there was no kill tonight. My guess, from reading the storyline, would be a role blocker blocking the mafia chosen to make the kill. Didn't sound like a doctor protection.

Please expand upon this.
What about the storyline leads you to that conclusion?

"So, who's missing today?"
"I can't see Adel. Didn't she say she was going to die?"
"Yes, I remember that, too. Seems she was right. Let's see whether we find anything useful in her hou.."
The door slams open and much to the surprise of the others, Adel enters the room.
"Someday I'll remember to unlock the cellar if I want them to wake me in the morning.. I mean.. my alarm clock failed to go off."

I am trying to analyze and make sense of this part of the storyline. It would not suggest a doctor protecting anyone. It may lead towards a blocker that caused the mafia to become locked up, unable to make a kill. any other analysis of this?

A red herring. Flavor text usually doesn't include any hints, especially in normal games, but it occasionally contains mod mistakes (like when the mod assumes that everyone knows something) but I don't think this is one of those times. Judging from his posts in this game, I really don;t think that TDC would drop hints in flavor text accidentally or otherwise.

[Adel]

3) Tubby: In the following quote and "claim", I take it as you are trying to lead us heavily into thinking that you are powerless.

so i will consider this my one and only defense post and so that we can move on i fell the need to go ahead and claim, i know there is no real vote pressure but i am a townie plain and simple,, if you have read my meta you will note

when i have a role i am far more active and care a lil more about the game and try to have a bigger input

.

Since you had to bring this up, it makes me think that perhaps you are just trying to pull the wool over our eyes. This is not a WIFOM moment but again, just a gut feeling.

... how in the hell did I miss that he claimed vanilla townie in that post?

anyhow, looking through his games to compare his activity level between when he does have a role and when he does not....

tubby:
still alive in

• 1. Xyl's Relative Chaos - Night 3
  now finished
  -- scum
  2. Mafia 88- Return to New Catania- Day One
  3. Newbie 673: (Day 2)
  4. Family Guy Mafia - FCC gets da boot (Night 1)
  5. Mafia 82: International (Day 4, four dead again)

Finished Games:

• 1. Mini 669: Mod Abandoned -- townie?
  2. Newbie 644: Kodak City, Muffin District (wrecked) -- scum
  3. Newbie 675: Zeroville Heights (Fell Off a Cliff) -- townie

I noticed two things:

• 1. we do not have any games on this site to compare when he has a ole to when he does not...
  2. in the post game of Xyl's Relative Chaos is the post:
  

  @ vi
  did you see improvement from the last game i was in with you to this one??

  Ehehe. Yes, yes I did.
  You tripped on yourself at first, but once tubgate was sorted out and everyone called you newbTown, you faded into the background. That was good in itself, and you didn't disturb the advantage of people completely overlooking you throughout. And that's how you win as scum; gj.
  
  Granted, improvement may be hard to measure since the last time you were scum, you had a Doc claim weighing you down so nobody was going to ignore you completely. But still.
  
  What you need now is confidence so you can go on the offense. And/or to be scum more often~

  source: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=890
  
  Vi is a good player who has now played two games with tubby-scum.
  
  Thoughts?

[Adel]

when in doubt try to quantify. Here is one attempt to evaluate tubby's activity in a game. Be warned that this methodology makes no attempt to measure how much attention he attracted, or to evaluate how active he was in one game (posts/day) with how active he was in another game, or how his activity level has changed with calendar time, or how many words he used each day relative to everyone else. Invariably, there are many variables that can’t be controlled for (like how spammy the other players were) but looking at the number of posts provides a data point I suspect will be worth looking at. Also note that I count the mod as being a player because I don’t want to take the time to factor each mod’s posts out.

sample:

I. game name, tubby's role & alignment

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (number of game posts while during that day)/(number of players alive during that day) = (average number of posts per player for that day)
    2. (number of tubby's posts during that day)/(average number of posts per player) =
    tubby’s activity ratio for that day
    
    3. Notes (if any)

I. Xyl's Relative Chaos, mafia power role

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (601-0)/(16)= 37.6
    2. (33-0)/(37.6)=
    .878
    
    3. Note that tubby was attacked for rolefishing around Nov. 1, and said in the post game that he managed to escape a certain lynch.

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (650-601)/(14)= 3.50
    2. (36-33)/(3.50)=
    .875

• C. Day 3
  • 1. (711-650)/(10)= 6.10
    2. (43-36)/(6.10)=
    1.15

• D. Day 4
  • 1. (757-711)/(6)= 7.67
    2. (48-43)/(7.67)=
    .652

• D. Day 5
  • 1. (865-757)/(6)= 18.0
    2. (66-48)/(18)=
    1.00

II. gamename, tubby's role & alignment

• A. Day 1
  • 1. ()/()=
    2. ()/()=

• B. Day 2
  • 1. ()/()=
    2. ()/()=

• C. Day 3
  • 1. ()/()=
    2. ()/()=

this is all I got to tonight... I included this outline for the next one of his games so that anyone else with the time and inclination can fill it out.

[Adel]

I haven't done much of a reread yet. i replaced into multiple games near the same time because i usually have sympathy for games needing replacements since i hate games i play in when people bail and no one is willing to replace. but now i have finally caught up in the others, so this one is next. but can someone explain to me why we are all voting a claimed tracker?

This is actually a good question.

Wouldn't it be awesome if someone voting for him took the time to write out a detailed explanation for why they are still voting for him?

~~~

Wouldn't it be awesome if ThAdmiral voiced a strong opinion on other people's alignment once in a while?

[Adel]

This helpful?

Xyl's Relative Chaos

- Scum
8.0% of total activity (71/893)
Total words posted: 2602. Average per post: 36.65

Newbie 644

- Scum
3.5% of total activity (18/512)
Total words posted: 1024. Average per post: 56.89

Mini 669

- Town
2.4% of total activity (20/832)
Total words posted: 844. Average per post: 42.20

Newbie 675

- Town
2.2% of total activity (9/410)
Total words posted: 421. Average per post: 46.78

This Game

6.2% of total activity (35/568)
Total words posted: 1684. Average per post: 48.11


II. Mini 703 - Alignment Unknown

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (232-0)/(12)=19.33
    2. (7)/(19.33)=0.362

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (492-232)/(10)=26
    2. (32-7)/(26)=0.962

for the % of total activity you didn't control for player deaths. The Average per post looks sound, but doesn't appear to inform us of his alignment. Perhaps that would be more useful if you separated that information into individual days.

For the Mini 703 information it looks like you didn't include the moderator in your math.... I think it should be:
II. Mini 703 - Alignment Unknown

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (232-0)/(13)=17.9
    2. (7)/(17.9)=0.391

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (492-232)/(11)=23.6
    2. (32-7)/(23.6)=1.06

~~~

I updated this:



I apologize if it breaks your screen.

[Adel]

@Korts: What can you tell us from comparing Tubby's performance in Xyl's Relative Chaos where he just beat you as scum with this game?

i diddn't beat him as scum i lost that game since it was the opposing scum team that one i am a lil bitter about that one btw

@Tubby, comparing ThAdmiral's performance in that game with his posts in this game, do you think he is more likely to be town or scum?

i think it morelikely he is town, but then agian i thought dd was just a confused townie, till his claim


~~~

Between dardude's claim of watcher at 477 and his lynch, tubby did not post a single time, but he did manage to post in Xyl's Relative Chaos

43

minutes after dardude's claim of watcher.

your point??

@tubby why did you choose not to post in this game after darkdude's claim?

quite frankly i was away for training with my job and diddn't really have time to follow all of the games i am currenly in, xyl's relative chaos was near completeion and i figured it was the more important to post and or play in that game than this one, plus you had the day well with in your grasp and also figured you needed no assistance from me.


if you would like a list i was nearly replaced in all of my games

family guy mafia in theme park
mafia 88
mafia 82
newbie 673~ in wich i keep forgetting that i am in that game
~~~

what do y'all think of these?

• 1.

  @Darkdude, when do you plan on roleclaiming?
  
  

  Unvote: Brain of Wombat/Adel

  
  
  I'm going to reconsider where my vote should be.

  2.

  My bad, forgot to respond to Rage.
  
  In the case of Rage vs Wombat, I definitely think it is suspicious that Rage attacked a newbie and then later backtracked saying he didn't know Wombat was new. Learning to find people's joining dates isn't hard - it's right under the avatar, and it's one of the first metas I started using when I started playing here. Lots of other players do it too, so I doubt you have not heard of this before.

  Even with this though, I think from what I know of Rage's meta, he is likely to be town. Rage does not pursue his cases so aggressively when he is scum, but does this all the time as town.

  3. Rage did not investigate me or Bow
  
  4. Rage voted for 2 people during day 1 of mini 630 (as town) made 7 votes against 4 different people during day 1 of mini 634 (as town) and only voted for 1 person during day 1 of Newbie 602 (as town) and only voted for 1 person during day 1 of this game.
  
  5. Rage really didn't express suspicion of other people very often in this game (until his post at 522).

hmm good points but i believed his case on Bow before you replaced then in fact thats what threw me off and i thought dd was innocent was because of rage's case on BoW and then he got replaced and i got lost since i had such tunnel vision, plus i seriously feel if you are scum adel the town is lost cause even thought you are hackin me to peices and really making me think if i trully need to play here anymore since i am clearly out of my league , so i will consider this my one and only defense post and so that we can move on i fell the need to go ahead and claim,

i know there is no real vote pressure but i am a townie plain and simple,, if you have read my meta you will note when i have a role i am far more active and care a lil more about the game and try to have a bigger input.

this is one of the reasons why I am taking a closer look at you than other players right now.

The numbers aren't saying much yet, but the dataset is still very incomplete, and even once it is complete the sample size will still be too small to make any clear determinations of alignment... but this is the most objective method (quantitative analysis) that I know for identifying scum.

[Adel]

I'm uneasy going into an argument about this and going entirely off-topic, but quantitative analyses don't allow for changes in posting frequency in pretty much the same way meta arguments don't allow for changes in playstyle; and thus any implication is minor.

Still, if this has been proven as an effective method of scumhunting, I respect your efforts at sifting through the information.

it hasn't been "proven", but identifying verifiable facts has got to help.

what do you make of his challenge for us to "read his meta" and see that when he has a role he is far more active? The next logical step would be to go and analyze his games at that other site (which requires the creation of an account)...

i know there is no real vote pressure but i am a townie plain and simple,, if you have read my meta you will note when i have a role i am far more active and care a lil more about the game and try to have a bigger input.

this is a unneeded claim of vanilla townie. Why do you think he made this claim?

[Adel]

at adel ok gott it thanks, i'll follow that with another question, does this only help in newer players and other than me do you feel anyone else deserves this type of attention and why?

I wish I had a team of helpers so that I could do it for everyone, but the process is too damn time consuming.

Why did you think it was a good idea to claim?

[Adel]

then please wake up and invest yourself in this game Korts!

The fact of the matter is that he does not have a meta defense for his claim from this site since we don't have any games where he was a pro-town powerrole to look at. There doesn't seem to be a correlation between his activity level and his alignment, but that simply doesn't damn him -- it does nothing to clear him. I am loath to look at the other site he has played at since that will definitely be an apples to oranges comparison, and I don't like how registration is required to look at game sin their forum.

I found the whole claim of being more active when he is a role because he is more invested in those games to be suspicious since powerroles (unlike vanilla townies) actually can have a win-condition related reason not to be active -- they are trying to dodge the nk.

[Adel]

at adel ok gott it thanks, i'll follow that with another question, does this only help in newer players and other than me do you feel anyone else deserves this type of attention and why?

I wish I had a team of helpers so that I could do it for everyone, but the process is too damn time consuming.

Why did you think it was a good idea to claim?

quite honestly i have never had anyone invest so much time into me or my playing style so i figured it was the best thing to do. i really don't like all the attention, but if you ant the town feel it neccassary then i will do my best to answer all the questions put before me.


and as for the other site i play on its all but dead now and it has different mechanics, like here day continues untill we reach a majority where there the day is truly a day and a nite may only be a couple of hours so it forces people to contribute. so my meta for that s

vote:tubby

[Adel]

so now we have thre cases in the works,

rage's case on BoW

~ wich i happen to agree with

ecto's case on darkduse

~ seems like a valid one i just think BoW is scummier atm

kort's case on chuckrock

~ wich is gaining ground (ie becoming more solid with more faults in chuckrocks posts)

is that the jist of it or do i need to re-read some more??

why did you think that BOW was scummier than darkdude at the time you made this post?

[Adel]

1)do you believe the case on you/BoW is valid?

I recognize that BOW made posts that contain many tells that can be counted as scummy. I believe that BOW was probably a VI, and those tells from his posts should probably be discarded as not being likely to correlate with alignment.

2)do you think you should full claim since Bow kinda soft claimed?

I had no idea he softclaimed. I do not think it is a good idea for me to claim at this point. Do you want me to claim?

3)who do you think is scummiest on your wagon and why?

I do not know who the scummiest person is. I haven't read the game deeply yet, and I haven't even started a full analysis of it. It will probably take me until about Thursday of next week to post any conclusions that I can be really confident of.

ok fair enough. I think you have satisfied my suspicion enough for now. However please note I will be watching your posts closely
but i feel ih 's lurking is a bigger problem, so i'll

unvote

vote ih

when you asked me if I wanted to do a full roleclaim, was that fishing?

[Adel]

and if I had responded with "sure, I will claim: I am a _______" would you have been surprised?

[Adel]

also, what made that post enough to satisfy your suspicions?

[Adel]

so once you saw that I wouldn't be easy to pressure into a claim or to lynch you moved your vote to another player?

Why did you move your vote to IH of all people?

Why did you leave your vote on IH for the rest of day 2?

[Adel]

why didn't you vote for darkdude during day 2?

[Adel]

these are the posts I had made when tubby changed his vote to IH

hello everyone.

unvote

it will take me at least 7 days to get a good handle on this game.

Please don't let the game stall while people wait for me to post.

thanks.

a quick question: who thought that Puta Puta might be Gimbo before he was lynched?

the scummiest post I've seen in a long time:

Awww man, we lost a gun inventer, that sucks. That could have come in useful later.

Still got no clue how we were supposed to guess Puta was a cop, been over every word and it still doesn't make sense.

Speaking of which, do we have any other investigators who could have found stuff last night?

seriously, this is who I am replacing?

yup happy holiday's adel

so why is your vote on me?

Also, why are people being allowed to lurk through this game so easily?

while I am rereading, I think it is time to build a pressure wagon:

vote: IH

Post or Perish!

tubby: do you mind answering some questions about the case against darkdude?

1. What do you think the legitimate reasons (i.e. non-bullshit reasons) to be voting for darkdude are?
2. Do you think that all three people voting for darkdude are scum?
3. If you think at least one of the people voting for darkdude are not scum, why do you think that a townie is voting for darkdude?

1)do you believe the case on you/BoW is valid?

I recognize that BOW made posts that contain many tells that can be counted as scummy. I believe that BOW was probably a VI, and those tells from his posts should probably be discarded as not being likely to correlate with alignment.

2)do you think you should full claim since Bow kinda soft claimed?

I had no idea he softclaimed. I do not think it is a good idea for me to claim at this point. Do you want me to claim?

3)who do you think is scummiest on your wagon and why?

I do not know who the scummiest person is. I haven't read the game deeply yet, and I haven't even started a full analysis of it. It will probably take me until about Thursday of next week to post any conclusions that I can be really confident of.

should that have been enough for him to think that I wasn't scum?

because i think the other case goin on darkdude is bs. so rather than simply unvote and leave it outthere floating i decided to leave it on you until i get a good read of you.

this is why he said that his vote was on me.

@tubby: when and why did you change your mind from thinking that the case on darkdude was valid and made sense, to thinking that it was bullshit?

[Adel]

i never thought the case on dd was valid till he claimed

until he claimed "watcher" or until he claimed "scum"?


also

ecto's case on darkduse

~ seems like a valid one i just think BoW is scummier atm

ok so that a good case on darkdude,, so my question is ecto why should BoW get a pass today ???

you never thought the case on DD was valid?

@Tubby, comparing ThAdmiral's performance in that game with his posts in this game, do you think he is more likely to be town or scum?

i think it morelikely he is town, but then agian i thought dd was just a confused townie, till his claim

what made you think he was a confused townie?

[Adel]

some questions you missed:

• 1. why didn't you vote for darkdude during day 2?
  
  
  2.

  @Tubby, comparing ThAdmiral's performance in that game with his posts in this game, do you think he is more likely to be town or scum?

  
  i think it morelikely he is town, but then agian i thought dd was just a confused townie, till his claim
  

  what made you think he was a confused townie?
  
  3.

  i never thought the case on dd was valid till he claimed

  until he claimed "watcher" or until he claimed "scum"?

[Adel]

questions for everyone:
Which wagons were offered as alternatives to the darkdude wagon on day 2?

Who advocated those wagons?

~~~~

@tubby, take a look at this post

hey i'm back everyone.

My position before I continue is that there's much more to be learned from a Brain of Wombat lynch than a Darkdude lynch.

ugh, information lynches.

By the way I've reread the darkdude case, and I've gone off it.
It's the question mark. I believe darkdude when he says he was truly asking whether that was the best course of action (for the record it clearly wasn't). So

unvote

.
As much as I wanted to believe we had "caught" scum, I don't think we have. He may turn out to be scum, but I don't think the argument on him now is valid.

does this post seem scummy to you or not? Why?

[Adel]

what about the IH wagon?

[Adel]

uh, no, the only person to vote for you during day 2 was BOW, which isn't much of a wagon. The IH wagon was actually stronger than the darkdude wagon in terms of actual votes at the time.

[Adel]

so with 9 alive it wall take 5 to lynch

Ecto, Korts and OP are voting for rage
Kison and I are voting for tubby
rage is voting for OP

tubby216, afatchic and ThAdmiral are not voting.

mod

please prod afatchic.

[Adel]

OP = insanepenguin02

yeah, sorry about that. I thought his name was orangepenguin for some reason.

[Adel]

3) Tubby: In the following quote and "claim", I take it as you are trying to lead us heavily into thinking that you are powerless.

so i will consider this my one and only defense post and so that we can move on i fell the need to go ahead and claim, i know there is no real vote pressure but i am a townie plain and simple,, if you have read my meta you will note

when i have a role i am far more active and care a lil more about the game and try to have a bigger input

.

Since you had to bring this up, it makes me think that perhaps you are just trying to pull the wool over our eyes. This is not a WIFOM moment but again, just a gut feeling.

... how in the hell did I miss that he claimed vanilla townie in that post?

Where did he claim Vanilla Townie? Isn't he claiming he thinks his role doesn't have much power?

tubby used his lack of a role to excuse his lack of activity, claiming that he is "a townie plain and simple". To me that is a very clear vanilla townie claim.

[Adel]

@tubby: how old are you in real life?

[Adel]

Hmm. I see all this math cluttering up the thread. Is it relevant? What is the interpretation of these numbers according to those who are actually taking the time to figure out what this is trying to acheive? It looks like busy work...

no clue ecto but it seems to make them happy,,
and why is it so important to just analyse me this way, or am i the only true unknown player in the game at this point. and does this lead you to my alignment in anyway?

apparently tubby should have a clue since he has collected similar stats for his own games. from his myspace page:


@Rage: I asked as part of building a psyche profile of him.

[Adel]

wow color me clueless,, i seriously thought dd was town,, damn i suck at this game

and really making me think if i trully need to play here anymore since i am clearly out of my league

well it was pretty much the answer i was lookin for at least at that time, when i hunt i think of it as an mma fight,

so when i start out its all jabs untill i see weakness once weakness is found i try to exploit it until i either get a decsion (i.e wagon to claim) or a knock out ( a lynch)

i just haven't gotten good at it

i tend to think of that site as my friday nite poker game. where as here at ms its like entering the world series of poker.

these statements are really sticking with me. Out of 40+ I can't recall an occasion where a player downplayed his abilities and talked up the proficiency of players here so much.

it is also bothering me how another vet who "fixes computers" has such poor attention to detail when it comes to correctly filling out BBCode tags, and fails so often to preview his posts and otherwise catch mistakes.

the myspace page he posted convinces me that he isn't lying about his age or military service... which pretty much leaves game-related deception as the basis for my suspicion.

list of stuff i am going to do
re-read rage in isolation
re-read korts
re-read this day and post thoughts,

how are you doing on your list?

upon completion of this game can i look at the "profile" you created?

I'm not writing down anything, but following the game I will be more than happy to critique your play and playstyle either in the postgame or via PM.

[Adel]

" Out of 40+" should read " Out of 40+ games on this site"

[Adel]

In mafia, like most games, a good offense is often the best defense.

If you have a case against anyone else, now would be a very good time to begin sharing it. If you don't have a case on anyone else, then please explain why identifying scum hasn't been a priority for you in this game.

[Adel]

I'm baffled by insanepenguin's case against rage, and rage's case against insanepenguin.
Would you guys pleaase restate your cases against each other in a more clear and concise form?

~~~

@tubby216, afatchic, & ThAdmiral: please vote or otherwise express who you think is most likely scum, and why.

[Adel]

Bah. I've drifted out of sync again. Will reread the last couple of pages, but these walls of text are stifling my brain...

Korts, I agree.

it would help the rest of us if you responded to:

I'm baffled by insanepenguin's case against rage, and rage's case against insanepenguin.
Would you guys pleaase restate your cases against each other in a more clear and concise form?

[Adel]

I'm a little alarmed after looking at http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... thor=Korts

why is Korts so active everywhere but here?

[Adel]

So you don't have a case against Rage, and never did?

[Adel]

here is an interesting idea: can anyone name any reasons why afatchic and insanepenguin can't be scum with darkdude?

[Adel]

@insanepenguin02: who did afatchic replace?

[Adel]

Sorry, but i meant to post this sooner, but ill be V/La until monday. i should be able to finish catching up though by then, so expect content on monday. sorry about it taking so long, but it came the same time as our Christmas vacation, so i have had limited access to the site.

since this post he has made 21 (count them!) posts in other games, and spread out on each calender day.

wtf?

unvote, vote:afatchic

post or perish.

[Adel]

here is an interesting idea: can anyone name any reasons why afatchic and insanepenguin can't be scum with darkdude?

Posts 575 and 532 - the last two posts by afathchic. I have NOTHING on him and even had to doublecheck that there was somebody with that name in the game. So I don't have anymore to even say there.

it sounds here like you claim to be unaware that this character, played by a few different people, was even in the game. What is your read on that character? Why shouldn't we look at the possibility of you being scum with that person?

[Adel]

here is an interesting idea: can anyone name any reasons why afatchic and insanepenguin can't be scum with darkdude?

Posts 575 and 532 - the last two posts by afathchic. I have NOTHING on him and even had to doublecheck that there was somebody with that name in the game. So I don't have anymore to even say there.

it sounds here like you claim to be unaware that this character, played by a few different people, was even in the game.

What is your read on that character?

Why shouldn't we look at the possibility of you being scum with that person?

do I need to go back and count all of the other questions you've refused to answer?

[Adel]

vote:tubby

I want to see this alleged case of his.

[Adel]

That leaves tubby at lynch-1 by my count.

The next vote on tubby will hammer, I think.

[Adel]

HOWEVER, I do question why it seems that you vote hop. There was a post that was started that was showing the bandwagon participants and you were on nearly every bandwagon. Mainly you start as the first or second vote and then if a wagon forms, you hop ship and start in on another case. I am not necessarily seeing this as scummy but I just want to know the reasons behind this please.

more wagons ='s more information ='s better informed lynch decision ='s very increased chance of catching scum with a lynch

[Adel]

Let's not string up Tubby just yet. I feel like I can't find my keys, so I'm not ready to leave.

Korts, Kison, ThAdmiral and afatchic could all easily be scum instead of Tubby or insanepenguin.

[Adel]

unvote

for unstated reasons.

[Adel]

@Adel- why did you assume you would die night 2?

it was a WIFOM trap, and was clearly labeled as such.

[Adel]

@Adel- why did you assume you would die night 2?

it was a WIFOM trap, and was clearly labeled as such.

I know, but i don't get it.

unless you have a nk, don't worry about it too much. If you have a NK, then please think about it as much as possible. Let it consume your every waking moment.

[Adel]

@Adel- why did you assume you would die night 2?

it was a WIFOM trap, and was clearly labeled as such.

I know, but i don't get it.

unless you have a nk, don't worry about it too much. If you have a NK, then please think about it as much as possible. Let it consume your every waking moment.

Nah, what i don't get is why you would set the Wifom Trap like that, considering you was the top suspect coming into the game.

I did it to draw the NK.


I told you it was a WIFOM trap.

[Adel]

Huh. I thought you did it to avoid the NK.

exactly, it is all WIFOM.

[Adel]

@Anyone- what seems to be the gain from not giving the Amn. cop results at the start of days? having the results gives no bearing on your actual role, and yet still clears a person most likely, so why would anyone wait to give results?

If you know the alignment of someone, but everyone else doesn't, then you have an informational advantage. Regardless of if you are town or if you are scum, having that information kept secret gives you a large edge. ThAdmiral made a good play by holding onto that information for as long as he did. Imagine if the day had gone differently, and the choice of the day's lynch was down to Ecto and one other person, and both wagons were about even and each wagon was full of very vocal proponents. If that had happened, and ThAdmiral waited until that point to reveal that he had that information, Ecto would be cleared, and at least one scum player would be outed, possibly winning the game for the town. If I had that information, that is probably how I would've steered the day's events, hoping for that outcome.

[Adel]

I'm confused. Are you expecting Adel's claim to satisfy your suspicion? How else can you expect Adel to explain something that the person he replaced said, when Brain of Wombat has already claimed Vanilla Townie?

I can't decide if this should count as rolefishing or not

[Adel]

@rage, how confirmed do you think ecto and ThAdmiral are? on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being unconfirmed, and 10 being fully confirmed as town?

[Adel]

that was unexpectedly clear and concise. Thanks!

Can you restate your case against insanepenguin with similar clarity?

[Adel]

My question is: due to metagaming, would adel-scum feel the need to do so much pro-town activity so as not to be obviously scum, or could adel-scum just not contribute as much and get away with it?

my last game as scum was Mature Mafia

IMHO I lurked through that game, or active lurking anyways, I always made sure that I was more active than 1/3rd of the other players.

I felt like I could get away with it against a cast of veteran players that included: DrippingGoofball, Talitha, zu_Faul, Pooky, mathcam, Glork, elvis_knits, Macros, Axelrod, Phoebus, & Werebear.

Check out my wiki for the rest of my games as scum. They are all there.

[Adel]

you probably shouldn't be. In some games I am really active as scum. Look at SMM2 and Newbie 540 (links on my wiki page) for examples of where I was just about the most active player in the game as scum. My activity level probably isn't a good determinant for my alignment.

[Adel]

@ThAdmiral: do you recall ever playing in a game where I was scum before?

[Adel]

since this is a semi-open with all roles and abilities listed, investigation-immune scum is not something we need to worry about. It isn't listed.

Kison is pinging on my scumdar.

[Adel]

epic reading fail. thanks for pointing out what I missed Kison.

[Adel]

vote:rage

[Adel]

ok, nevermind.

unvote, vote:tubby

for lynch -1

[Adel]

well, since there is a very good chance that you will die tonight, it would be awesome if you laid out your case against the penguin as clearly as you possibly can before this day is over.

[Adel]

unvote

go ahead ecto.

[Adel]

and if somone claims to have the gun would you then want rage to track that person to confirm that they indeed shot that person?

I'm not sure about that.

I think we might want to examine the possibilty of assigning the N1 gun person a target, and the N2 person a different target, without either claiming.

what if there are two guns out there??

I there is a good chance that there is.

i mean if we are playin what if letts throw it all out there right?

I'm not sure what claiming would prove... but it would let a scum RB know who to block to prevent a nk of a scum-member, and who not to block to avoid prevent an additional nk of a townie.


... speaking of claims, it occurred to me that rage may have been exactly right about being a watcher.. and it was a scum "team" power that they all share.

[Adel]

... seems like a scummy attempt at a WIFOM trap to me.

[Adel]

@ecto, sorry, it seemed clear to me at the time

so ecto are you saying adel is scum??

cause i tried that on one of my re-reads and then dropped it cause all i found is WIFOM arguments that weren't pro town,

this is what I was referring to as a possible WIFOM trap. As a WIFOM trap it will make rereading the game harder, I suspect, which I consider to be anti-town.

[Adel]

To anyone who wishes to research tubby's games on the other site, I have registered.

http://mafialives.darkbb.com

Username: MafiaScum Research
Password: asdfasdf

who has actually done some research over there, and what were your conclusions?

[Adel]

vote: insanepenguin02

[Adel]

remember this?


here is the rest of Day 3


and the way that insaneP joined the rage and tubby wagons without what I consider to be good reasons, leads me to suspect that he is more likely to be scum than tubby.

[Adel]

lol @ link to "meta breaking mafia". ABR messed that game up for me... I was so surprised that we won that game.

from the post game of meta breaking

This was the most uncordinated scum team I have ever been a part of.
Our quicktopic thread reads like a comedy of errors. As it worked out, my play certainly didn't help our team.

mad kudos to Surye for pulling out the win.


I don't see how Skruffs could've played any better than he did. I think this game illustrated how lurking by townies really hurts the towns chances of winning. More active posting by members of the town really would've changed the course of the game.

and from the post game of mini 488, the other game kison linked to

I guess i was very very wrong about Jenter being scum. As a vanilla townie, once there was a wagon of decent strength on me I was willing to take it. I felt that I could've argued my way out of it, but only at the risk of the next wagon outing the doctor. I felt that taking the lynch without outing the doctor would give the cop at least one, and hopefully two, additional investigations.

[Adel]

I keep on getting sidelined by
c) what if tubby and IP are both town

I have a very weary respect for Kison and Korts as scum, and the possibility of Ecto the Godfather is giving me a real headache.

I don't have enough information from afatchic in this game to have a clue about his alignment, and to a lesser extent the same is true for ThAdmiral.

I think Rage's alignment will either be proven by his death by NK or by his lack of death and lack of testable results.

I am really hoping for game breaking power-role revealed information tomorrow.

Anyway, Rage is out of contention for me since I figure we'll know about him soon enough. I don't have enough information on afatchic or ThAdmiral to really consider them. So out of IP, Kison, Korts, and Ecto
If Tubby is scum, I think IP is the best lynch.
If Tubby is not scum, and especially if Rage is not scum as well, Kison seems best.

[Adel]

I'm not saying that it is a bad idea, but I want to bring up some possible dangers:
1. scum can use the same information to help plan NKs and future mislynches
2. if we are dealing with lurking scum (like afatchic+ThAdmiral) the vig kills are probably going to be against active players which could leave us in mislynch-and-lose tomorrow.
3. if the Gun Inventor gave guns to two different townies, then both might be used on the same target.

~~~
one unstated reason for my tubby unvote was IP's jump onto the tubby bandwagon. It seemed to me that it might be a typical scum "wall of words that concludes why I am jumping on this bandwagon" post... with the minor "forgot to give lynch -1 warning" universal scumtell to boot.
I wasn't sure if I wanted to join Rage and tubby on the IP wagon at that time, and I was also worried about lazy townies following me around.

[Adel]

unvote, vote: afatchic

[Adel]

it is bullshit for him (and the people he replaced, lionheart and tarballs) to be able to slip through this game without leaving so much as a wake. Shame on us for allowing it. Of course there is nothing that damns him -- there is an absence of evidence.

[Adel]

@darkdude: why don't you think Ecto is scum. Please provide specific information. The more quickly you answer and the more information you provide, the less scummy you will appear, and the less likely you will to be lynched today.

Don't think he is scum? I don't recall saying that. There's just nothing to suggest him being more likely to be scum than other players. Right now I'm most suspicious of Korts, but even that is mostly gut feeling and guess.

To me Ecto seems like a very tunnel vision stricken town. Scum would probably pursue one of the lurkers IMHO.

this post has been nagging me

[Adel]

unvote, vote:Tubby216

[Adel]

why do you want tubby to be lynched instead of IP?

[Adel]

I'm not sure yet. The way Korts has been setting me up to take a fall if tubby is scum kinda wants me to see tubby lynched... it kind of indicates to me that tubby is more likely to be scum regardless of Kort's alignment than I would otherwise think.

In terms of wagons, tubby's seemed to form more easily, but with several disclaimers to the effect of "I'm not sure if anyone could avoid looking scummy". I have an allergy to people trying to dodge accountability for their votes.

The IP wagon was harder to form, which is usually a minor sign that the target is scum, but I don't really want to vote with tubby and rage -- even if I knew they were both town I don't think I would trust their judgment.

[Adel]

@tuby and ip:

any last words?

[Adel]

@ThAdmiral: please vote so I can hammer.

[Adel]

@Adel- can you explain your actions to end the day yesterday? you hammered Tubby, then proceeded to ask ThAd to vote so you could hammer. but thAd said he would be voting IP, so did you intend to hammer IP if your tubby vote wasn't the hammer? Also why did you jump wagons so quickly, as you had been on the IP wagon, then voted me, then hammered Tubby when i voted him.

I knew my tubby vote was the hammer. Look at the "stop hammertime" graphic I posted with it.
I jumped wagons to manipulate you and thadmiral into to strongly aligning yourselves with one of the wagons, and to make sure that I was the person left with the ability to choose between tubby and IP.

When I saw that you didn't notice that I had hammered, I played along with your ignorance in an attempt to get more information out of you.

[Adel]

vote: afatchic

[Adel]

here is the rest of Day 3


According to what people said yesterday, if Tubby is scum:
afatchic -> Rage
Ecto -> Rage, IP
Korts -> Rage, Adel
insanepenguin02 -> Rage, afatchic
Kison -> Adel, Rage
ThAdmiral -> afatchic or IP
Adel -> IP
*Rage-> (preferred IP over Tubby)

I have a hunch that Rage may have been a vig kill. Does anyone want to claim credit for the kill of Rage?

[Adel]

I think it is time to talk about massclaiming.
Someone has information that should clear a couple of people, and there should be at least 1 gun floating around out there.

We should be able to logic this game out for an easy town win.

[Adel]

wtf?

I think it is time to

talk

about massclaiming.

unvote, vote: insanepenguin02

[Adel]

Oh, above Adel, you could punch holes in that a bit if you can show that your preference was stated prior to the rest being established. I haven't looked yet, and Im sure its buried.

I was the last to answer afatchic.

I don't any reason why there can't be two godfathers in this game.

[Adel]

You've got me concerned Adel. I know you like your charts and such. I know that you like to plan ahead as scum (I think you've expressed dismay previously when your scum buddies didn't do any communication/planning). So assuming an Adel scum, here's the path:

The die was cast when we gave our opinions on who would likely be scum when Tubby flipped scum. Cop is dead, the investigation revealed, so the only player left who could catch scum out, including the Godfather was the town Tracker (Rage). Bussing Tubby as Godfather wasn't much of a problem, because his unique ability was no longer needed. The town Tracker on the other hand could reveal movement of scum.
Rage would likely get lynched from the looks of the list, but he could still talk and even a reveal of who

didn't

go out last night was too much information. He had to die.
So looking on Adel's list, we see that the next person was IP by a total of 4 vs 2 over afatchic. Now Adel could have made it 3 vs 3, but the clincher was that Rage had wanted IP over Tubby. Adel puts her preference on IP, Rage dies which throws us back to our other lynch target from yesterday as the only obvious place to look right now, and the reason to lynch is ready made in the form of our opinions yesterday.

According to what people said yesterday, if Tubby is scum:
afatchic -> Rage
Ecto -> Rage, IP
Korts -> Rage, Adel
insanepenguin02 -> Rage, afatchic
Kison -> Adel, Rage
ThAdmiral -> afatchic or IP
Adel -> IP
*Rage-> (preferred IP over Tubby)

I have a hunch that Rage may have been a vig kill. Does anyone want to claim credit for the kill of Rage?

And I think this clears me of being a Godfather? Curious how you mentioned one in being in game and Tubby turns up as one.

IIRC Kison was the first to point out (besides our mod in the list of possible roles) the possibility of a godfather.

I think it is interesting that you are trying to assign a scum slip to me.

[Adel]

And I think this clears me of being a Godfather? Curious how you mentioned one in being in game and Tubby turns up as one.

Is Ecto a 9 or 10 confirmed now?

I am the one who mentioned the possibility of one being in the game, and that is because it is listed on the front page.

Are you asking this question to Adel, or to everyone?

I think Adel is scum, based on the way she ran Tubby216 up and abandoned ship once it got hot. I also disagree with mass claiming. We had two investigative roles who are now dead; I doubt there is a third. Mass claiming now has the potential to reveal a protective role(jailkeeper/doc), which could prevent Ectomancer from winding up in the endgame. If a protective doesn't die today/tonight, then tomorrow would be a more optimal time for mass claiming, if ever.

an investigative role should be able to provide us with one or two innocents. The guns are still unaccounted for, and there is a way to direct vig kills to clear even more people.

[Adel]

I dont think we should mass claim. They still have to kill me, because regardless of what my power is, Im confirmed town.

or a godfather.

[Adel]

According to what people said yesterday, if Tubby is scum:
afatchic -> Rage
Ecto -> Rage, IP
Korts -> Rage, Adel
insanepenguin02 -> Rage, afatchic
Kison -> Adel, Rage
ThAdmiral -> afatchic or IP
Adel -> IP
*Rage-> (preferred IP over Tubby)

I have a hunch that Rage may have been a vig kill. Does anyone want to claim credit for the kill of Rage?

You drew attention to the information (as you must if a quick wagon of IP is possible, and if IP is getting run up, you are not). That's what drew my eye. Not the information, but the fact that you

drew attention to it

. Helpful town Adel or manipulative scum Adel? Yes, I'm trying to figure out how to identify those animals in the wild prior to being tagged and bagged.

it is useful information, and looking at it led me to suspect that Rage's death may have been a vig kill. I placed that info in the same post as the voting charts because it is all objective information that can be confirmed.

Vig kill of Rage, but no scum kill would indicate another town role of roleblocker or protector. Would it really be best to mass claim in that situation?

yes, we would have PR + who he protected as confirmed innocents.

Wouldn't the roleblocker/protector be the best judge of when to reveal, and a coerced mass claim would remove that best judge from the equation?

Yes, but it is difficult to get a massclaim going without outing himself. I want our powerrole to claim as late as possible relative to other players.

Also, why would a roleblocker/protector not target Rage (unless they were a jailkeeper?) And even if that failed, what about my request to the guy with the gun

specifically

to not kill Rage so that we could get one more result?

why not protect rage? because our PR thought he was scum? Or thought that someone else was the most likely kill... only he will know.

[Adel]

Does anyone think it is possible that ip could be scum as well?
I.e. that both major wagons yesterday were on scum?

I honestly don't...

Oh i didn't really think the tracker dying all the way through. i figured the odds of him actually tracker scum were low, since he was 0/3, but i didn't think about the flip side to that situation and that he would be able to clear inno's who didn't do anything last night since with most likely 1 scum left, the only scum left would be doing the kill.

Just curious.... but if we have a Jailer/Doc/Roleblocker like some of you say, then wouldn't it be in our best interest for them to claim today since they probably had somehting to do with the night 0 no kill and night 2 no kill?

exactly! the PR could confirm as many as two innocents in addition to himself.

~~~

why do you think there may be a SK? I've ruled out that possibility in my mind due to the low number of night kills.

[Adel]

y'all think I replaced in and got both of my scumbuddys lynched? seriously?

@Korts: Why on earth do you think that lylo is the optimal time to massclaim?

TDC is a computer geek and pretty innovative. There is a chance of 4 scum, and there is a chance of 2 godfathers, and a massclaim would help to settle that.

[Adel]

y'all think I replaced in and got both of my scumbuddys lynched? seriously?

First off: it's possible; seeing pressure on your buddies is a good motive to add some yourself. You were also very inconsistent with the pressure on tubby.

I also built a wagon on him out of nowhere, drove it until we got all of the information we could out of it, and then I took my time to make sure he was scum, engineered a scenario where we finally got an opinion out of aftchic and ThAdmiral, and I hammered tubby instead of IP.

@Korts: Why on earth do you think that lylo is the optimal time to massclaim?

I believe so because by then the claimed power roles will have had enough results to claim without having outed themselves eariler on, and a much more extensive puzzle's pieces can be fit together; and the mafia won't get the chance to make a NK-choice in the full knowledge of the town's power roles early on. LYLO is the optimal time to massclaim simply because any earlier is too early.[/quote]

the day before lylo the town can test a claim without relying upon a coin flip.
you are setting yourself up to fakeclaim in lylo for the win.

unvote, vote:Korts

[Adel]

ok then, I guess my reaction to Ecto was mostly OMGUS.

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

I am willing to drop the massclaim idea until tomorrow... just don't wait until lylo for massclaim!

[Adel]

voting patterns mostly. Since I was scum with Kison in SMM2, and nominated him for a scummy for his performance in that game, I am aware of his ability to pull a full game bus, and he did no such thing in this game.

[Adel]

@IP: where have you played mafia, besides this site?

[Adel]

Wait ip claimed yesterday. Why all the hate when he claimed today?

I forgot that he claimed yesterday.

[Adel]

@IP have you finished any games on this site yet?

[Adel]

@IP have you finished any games on this site yet?

One is completely done: Mini 716 El Puma:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10040

When did people claim in that game? Did anyone claim vanilla townie early?

[Adel]

@IP have you finished any games on this site yet?

One is completely done: Mini 716 El Puma:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10040

When did people claim in that game? Did anyone claim vanilla townie early?

Day 3 was when people started claiming. I came up with a case against who I thought was mafia and wanted to deflect the suspicion off of me and help explain a night one triple kill. I explained that we obviously had the mafia kill and a kill from me, as a one shot vig. Then the third had to be a serial killer. After I claimed, there were more claims:
The mafia claimed vanilla town, the serial killer claimed townie, and the other townie (watcher) claimed that he was watcher. So us remaining townies, who were both at some point a power role, were honest while the two threats both claimed vanilla.

so the idea of premature vanilla townie claims being bad never occurred to you until this game?

[Adel]

mini 703 (this game).

[Adel]

ok, so when you made this post

I think Kison is about as cleared as Ecto.

Mechanically I would have to disagree.

I don't know whether to be pissed at IP or happy that I found scum. He was so damn quick on that mass claim idea.

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I just thought that by being vanilla, I had nothing to hide as all I can do are the basics. I didn't do much thinking now that I look back at it....

1. did you remember that you had previously claimed vanilla townie?
2. had you forgotten that you learned in mini 716 that early vanilla townie claims are bad?

[Adel]

in that game I was trying to just do a standard day 1 distancing move with Surye, but ABR really threw me off my game with his auto-lynch-adel attitude. I recall thinking that I had totally botched my Surye wagon, and was probably going to be responsible for our loss. Even though we won that game, I still think of it as a personal failure.

Before you vote me, are you aware that in my last game as scum (Mature Mafia) I got my entire scum through the entire game without a single loss? That was my next game as scum after Meta-Breaking Mafia, and I think I successfully applied the lessons I learned from Meta Breaking to Mature Mafia.

[Adel]

lol, I just scanned though my posts in Mature Mafia and it looks like I didn't vote for either of my scum buddies even once in that game!

[Adel]

I've been thinking about this game, and how it is stalled, and which characteristics town-win games share.

looking back over everyone's voting records, two players stand out: afatchic and ThAdmiral.

afatchic:

• 1. plays a character who has been replaced a couple of times. While I clearly remember Nice Shot Mafia (a large game I modded where 3 of the 4 scum got replaced, and two of them were replaced twice) I definetly believe that getting replaced is a town-tell, at least in the case of new players. I think Nice Shot was an anomaly because of my aggressive replacement policy, and because it breaks a pattern I've seen in so many other games... also the players that got replaced were fairly experienced (including Battle Mage as an extreme example).
  2. voted for tubby, hopefully under the impression that I was going to hammer IP.scum
  3. scum threat level: low. I don't think that he can out type any of the other players here (exception: IP) in endgame. I recently replaced into a game (still ongoing) where he was lynched on Day 1 and revealed (by the mod, which means that I can legally mention it in this game) to be scum. I doubt that has happened to Kison, Korts, Ecto, or ThAdmiral for a very long time, and I expect that development of endgame skill usually parallels skill in the opening game.
  4. utility to the town: low. The dude isn't putting work into the game, and I doubt he is will do much to increase our chances of success.

ThAdmiral

• 1. he is playing within his meta: lurking, with clear and concise posts. I don't mind his playstyle because he always leaves me with the impression that he is paying attention to the game, and his post usually have a high signal:noise ratio.
  2. he promised to vote for IP at deadline, and in a manner that lets me suspect that he didn't want tubby killed but he didn't want to be accountable for the IP lynch. I have trouble believing though that tubby's scum buddy wouldn't be on his wagon. I have not checked ThAdmiral's meta specifically to see what his voting behavior is towards scum buddies. There may be a huge tell waiting there. I expect his behavior will conform with the stereotype I have for him: slow and cautious play with no hasty moves.
  3. scum threat level: medium. With at least 3 of Kison, Korts, Ecto and I being town, ThAdmiral's usual strength as scum (absence of evidence against him) shouldn't be nearly as useful as it normally would be.
  4. town utility: medium. In 3 player endgame I trust his judgment more than pretty much anyone else here, including myself. Before then, he sucks.

I think our best chance of winning is to once again set up two competing wagons: afatchic and TheAdmiral. I am a huge believer in engineering a day so that there are two close and competing wagons. That was my intention yesterday, and I think I deserve a lot of the credit for how yesterday turned out. I built both wagons and pushed both along, and I picked the correct one for the lynch.

I will go ahead and

unvote:Korts

and

vote: ThAdmiral

because I think he has a chance of convincing me he is town by identifying scum and building a convincing case against them.

I do not think that afatchic or IP should be allowed to live until endgame. That isn't me setting up another lynch, that is me telling the gun holder(s) who to shoot.

[Adel]

btw, IP's late vote on Rage remains scummy as hell.

[Adel]

gods bless semi-open games. I don't think I'm ever going to play in any other kind again. My paranoia just got put to rest by rereading the first post.
eliminated concerns:
1. cults
2. death-millers
3. survivors

I still can't eliminate some kind of weirdness like a lone (mafia goon) with an independent win condition that has multiple non-killing power-role group abilities... but that would be a candidate for the

worst roles ever

thread in MD.

[Adel]

however i don't see it benificial to lynch the people you see who aren't the best talkers, but rather lynch the ones who are the best talkers. For someone like Me, IP, or ThAd, it would be extremely hard to fool the town in end game, while leaving some of the others could be detrimental to the town. If me-scum or ThAd-scum are in endgame, we are much more likely to catch our selves in a lie, than one of the smoother talkers in the game. so i don't really see the benefit to trying to lynch one of the two of us, solely because we won't be good in end game.

ThAdmiral is strong in endgame as both town and scum. I don't think that you will be. Regardless of what your alignment is. Ecto and Kison and Korts are top-tier players. IP is not, and you are not. If you don't like my opinion of you, then please prove me wrong by identifying scum and convincing the rest of us to lynch him. One thing you and ThAdmiral have in common is a very low-content and low-opinion series of posts. We have less information on you. In endgame the person with the least information in their post history has the most flexibility of opinion and has less to explain or account for. Generally, in a 3 person endgame, the player with the least information in their post history will be on the winning side. This is a basic game mechanic, and has nothing to do with alignment. It is in the town's best interest for for the most active players to all make it into endgame. You also want players to not have been recently replaced. That is why some people, including myself, thought it was dirty when BM-scum replaced out of Nice Shot Mafia and his replacement wasn't held accountable for BM's actions because BM is an idiot. IP seems to be getting a newbie pass, and definitely doesn't seem likely to be getting replaced. How long is the newbie card good for? It has to expire before endgame, or else scum win: either the two IC-townies will tunnel in on each other or IC-scum will get him lynched.

[Adel]

unvote:Korts

vote: ThAdmiral

[Adel]

I fail at reading comprehension. I thought the mod had missed my vote for ThAdmiral.

[Adel]

afatchic:

• 1. plays a character who has been replaced a couple of times. While I clearly remember Nice Shot Mafia (a large game I modded where 3 of the 4 scum got replaced, and two of them were replaced twice) I definetly believe that getting replaced is a town-tell, at least in the case of new players. I think Nice Shot was an anomaly because of my aggressive replacement policy, and because it breaks a pattern I've seen in so many other games... also the players that got replaced were fairly experienced (including Battle Mage as an extreme example).

Sorry Adel, I thought the same thing, and I also thought that the greater number of replacements, the more likely the role was to be vanilla townie. And then I got burned. Check Mini 701 viewtopic.php?t=9754&start=0. 4 replacements aannnd......Godfather. I was floored.

I know that there are exceptions, but I think that there is a trend that is true more often than it is not. No money-back guarantee, but it is better than throwing darts at a board.

[Adel]

how can we quantify this? What is the threshold point where it isn't a null tell.

If we look at the last 30 completed mini-normals (should include 90 mafia players) which % of mafia players not ever being replaced makes it a scumtell? 60%+ ? What other variables should we include in our analysis?

[Adel]

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

[Adel]

unless I've seen game or psychological mechanics that tell me town.

like lynching tubby and darkdude?
for a psychological tell try this: I like to win in a total and dominating way. Getting my entire crew through Mature Mafia was a win I am proud of. tubby never would've gotten lynched without my interrogation, and it was my hammer that killed him. If I was scum with him he would not have lynched yesterday.

[Adel]

they were offered as examples of game mechanics: what effect have I had in on the game.

[Adel]

I think it is far more important to have two competing wagons then for y'all to think that a newish player getting replaced is a town tell.

What do you think enabled you to avoid bussing in Mature Mafia?

Careful play, not drawing attention to myself or my scumbuddys, leaving false bus links to DGB in case I got caught, letting active townies lynch each other, undermining the signal:noise ratio, and magnifying Out Of Context problems to discourage townies from getting too attached to the game.

I also suspect that tubby did not leave himself open to attack. I attacked him out of the blue, and got him lynched, which is in important difference from Surye who won the game by surviving.

[Adel]

I've been thinking about this game, and how it is stalled, and which characteristics town-win games share.

looking back over everyone's voting records, two players stand out: afatchic and ThAdmiral.

afatchic:

• 1. plays a character who has been replaced a couple of times. While I clearly remember Nice Shot Mafia (a large game I modded where 3 of the 4 scum got replaced, and two of them were replaced twice) I definetly believe that getting replaced is a town-tell, at least in the case of new players. I think Nice Shot was an anomaly because of my aggressive replacement policy, and because it breaks a pattern I've seen in so many other games... also the players that got replaced were fairly experienced (including Battle Mage as an extreme example).
  2. voted for tubby, hopefully under the impression that I was going to hammer IP.scum
  3. scum threat level: low. I don't think that he can out type any of the other players here (exception: IP) in endgame. I recently replaced into a game (still ongoing) where he was lynched on Day 1 and revealed (by the mod, which means that I can legally mention it in this game) to be scum. I doubt that has happened to Kison, Korts, Ecto, or ThAdmiral for a very long time, and I expect that development of endgame skill usually parallels skill in the opening game.
  4. utility to the town: low. The dude isn't putting work into the game, and I doubt he is will do much to increase our chances of success.

ThAdmiral

• 1. he is playing within his meta: lurking, with clear and concise posts. I don't mind his playstyle because he always leaves me with the impression that he is paying attention to the game, and his post usually have a high signal:noise ratio.
  2. he promised to vote for IP at deadline, and in a manner that lets me suspect that he didn't want tubby killed but he didn't want to be accountable for the IP lynch. I have trouble believing though that tubby's scum buddy wouldn't be on his wagon. I have not checked ThAdmiral's meta specifically to see what his voting behavior is towards scum buddies. There may be a huge tell waiting there. I expect his behavior will conform with the stereotype I have for him: slow and cautious play with no hasty moves.
  3. scum threat level: medium. With at least 3 of Kison, Korts, Ecto and I being town, ThAdmiral's usual strength as scum (absence of evidence against him) shouldn't be nearly as useful as it normally would be.
  4. town utility: medium. In 3 player endgame I trust his judgment more than pretty much anyone else here, including myself. Before then, he sucks.

I think our best chance of winning is to once again set up two competing wagons: afatchic and TheAdmiral. I am a huge believer in engineering a day so that there are two close and competing wagons. That was my intention yesterday, and I think I deserve a lot of the credit for how yesterday turned out. I built both wagons and pushed both along, and I picked the correct one for the lynch.

I will go ahead and

unvote:Korts

and

vote: ThAdmiral

because I think he has a chance of convincing me he is town by identifying scum and building a convincing case against them.

I do not think that afatchic or IP should be allowed to live until endgame. That isn't me setting up another lynch, that is me telling the gun holder(s) who to shoot.

FWIW I think Adel is probably pushing this line of discussion more because of her role getting replaced than because of afatchic. And FWIW I think getting replaced is not indicative of alignment overall. If town get replaced more often it's only because there are more town than scum.

I'm "pushing it"?

[Adel]

completed mini-normals on the most recent page of Little Italy. Only counting finished games, not counting Open games or Minivitationals

nevermind. It looks like my meta on that was either out of date, or never was valid.

I was expecting to see a lot more games like http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8823
and http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 03#1310403
and
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9225
and
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=200
and
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 14#1270214

5 games out of 25 isn't very many.

[Adel]

I think it is far more important to have two competing wagons then for y'all to think that a newish player getting replaced is a town tell.

This statement looks backward.

It isn't the random stage, it isn't even day 1. We don't need to invent a wagon simply to have 2 of them.

the town isn't going to learn a single thing from my lynch otherwise. There will just be 5 players sitting around saying "oh well, I thought she was scum. What now?"

[Adel]

You're not making sense to me anymore to be quite honest. How am I supposed to be learning anything about you after you die, (assuming a town Adel) when what you say doesn't hold water, and when I criticize the case, you tell me to just accept it because we need 2 wagons?

what did I say that doesn't hold water? Using his character's history of replacement in this game as a mild town-tell for afatchic while voting for ThAdmiral?

If you are going to lynch me today I would much rather my lynch produced useful information, but the way it is going there isn't going to be much information to illuminate the alignments of other players.

[Adel]

this game is seriously cracking me up.

"OMG she got all of us suspicious of Tubby and then hammered him when it looked like IP was going to be the lynch -- OBVIOUS SCUM!"

and y'all can't even find a case against anyone besides me, and won't pay attention to one when I present one.

lol, and good luck.

if this is the way it is going to be (not considering alternative to me), you are pobably better off lynching me sooner rather than later, so the game won't stall out too badly, and townies will have more of a chance to rememember what other townies said earlier.

...

so why don't I have a few votes yet?

[Adel]

Giving up, good. Now town, please take Adel's advice. This day has drawn on long enough.

so why don't I have a few votes yet?

You can always count on me

Korts needs company on my wagon. Any volunteers?

[Adel]

Rage - believe his claim, so town.

Again, I'll ask this: do you believe that he is a

tracker

? The reason I ask this is because the front page clearly indicates that the tracker can be a scum role. So if you merely believe the claim, I must ask why you believe he is town as a result of it.

I believe he is the town tracker.

My question is: due to metagaming, would adel-scum feel the need to do so much pro-town activity so as not to be obviously scum, or could adel-scum just not contribute as much and get away with it?

my last game as scum was Mature Mafia

IMHO I lurked through that game, or active lurking anyways, I always made sure that I was more active than 1/3rd of the other players.

I felt like I could get away with it against a cast of veteran players that included: DrippingGoofball, Talitha, zu_Faul, Pooky, mathcam, Glork, elvis_knits, Macros, Axelrod, Phoebus, & Werebear.

Check out my wiki for the rest of my games as scum. They are all there.

In this case I am far more inclined to think you are town.

you probably shouldn't be. In some games I am really active as scum. Look at SMM2 and Newbie 540 (links on my wiki page) for examples of where I was just about the most active player in the game as scum. My activity level probably isn't a good determinant for my alignment.

@ThAdmiral: do you recall ever playing in a game where I was scum before?

ThAdmiral, why do you draw the conclusion that since Rage's claim is believable, his alignment must be town also? Or is the conclusion of his alignment independent of his claim?

I believe he is town since his claim lead to the lynch of a mafiate.

@ThAdmiral: do you recall ever playing in a game where I was scum before?

Yes. One of the first games I played on this site actually. Mini 548. Mastermind of sin was playing and pretty much won the game himself.
Your style was similar there (in that you did the big colorful graph thing and were quite active), however you seemed to be targeting lurkers more and I seem to remember you getting quite flustered when attacked.

I think this exchange is interesting, and may deserve some attention.

[Adel]

remember, before he linked me to tubby, Korts linked me to someone else:

Adel- BoW may have been the scummiest play i have ever read through. he def. ranks up in the top 3 or 5. and reading through i was astounded he wasn't lynched a few pages into day 1. however if you look at it assuming he is town, i believe there is a very logical explanation, which i expect to hear from Adel later in the game. If i don't hear the explanation i am waiting for, i may be inclined to vote him based on how badly BoW played, but right now i think he is a townie.

This paragraph seems particularly wishy-washy, even for you, afatchic. You first state that Adel's predecessor is definitely scummy, then you assume he's town, then you demand an explanation from Adel; and finally you conclude that right now she's probably a townie. I sense a connection; such uncertainty makes me think of a partnership where you can't decide whether to bus, distance or defend.

so ecto are you saying adel is scum??

cause i tried that on one of my re-reads and then dropped it cause all i found is WIFOM arguments that weren't pro town,

and if somone claims to have the gun would you then want rage to track that person to confirm that they indeed shot that person?

what if there are two guns out there??

i mean if we are playin what if letts throw it all out there right?

Note: tubby is defending Adel. If tubby flips scum, Adel has a slightly higher chance of being scum herself.

tubby, have you finished the case on me and Rage yet?

he is the first time Korts linked me to tubby.

who has actually done some research over there, and what were your conclusions?

Unfortunately I haven't had much time or patience for that. Nevertheless, tubby has more than enough on him for a lynch IMO.

Why vote IP when as far as I gathered your top suspect is tubby?

Just an idea, but since right now it seems that tubby will be lynched, can everyone give their second suspect if:
a)Tubby is scum
b)Tubby is not scum

1. In order:
   1. Rage
   2. Adel
2. Rage

so Korts was still more suspicious of Rage than me at this point, even after Rage had claimed tracker.
Rememebr that Korts stayed on the Rage wagon longer than others, and voted for tubby only after Kison, Ecto, IP and I did, and then only once Ecto and IP and I had unvoted. tubby only had one vote when Korts placed a second vote on him at 681.

Kison being on both wagons is a very minor point.

insanepenguin's argument that he couldn't have voted darkdude if he was scum is either extremely thick-headed or scum being at a loss as to how to react to speculation (which makes him thick-headed to a lesser extent). IP, why did you consider the implied connection between you and darkdude something which you had to reply to, other than acknowledging the theory?

The lessening of pressure on tubby is a sad thing; unfortunately I haven't had the time to go through his games, so I have nothing new on him.

I also notice my vote is still on Rage, who I think answered the case on him pretty well. Let's correct that.

unvote, vote: tubby

The reasons: tubby's appeal to role-specific meta; his passive role in scumhunting; frequent bandwagon hopping on the most popular wagons and application of general pressure wherever the most people are turning.

and tubby fired off a quick reply in 682

so are you trying to relieve pressure from your partner IP there korts or what?

it seems like an easy thing to do since i am a popular target and people would surely jump back on.

but you cleverly give yourself an out cause you suspect him of being thick headed and kinda scummy?

after 682 Korts and tubby exchange some brief words over ad hom. attacks.

because i am working a post with a case on you as well as ip, but i felt your post needed attention, since thats what i got when i read it

vote:tubby

I want to see this alleged case of his.

Note that tubby never posted his alleged case on Korts.
and then IP jumped aboard the wagon, setting Korts at lynch -1 in post 692.

For one, you have been in this game from the first day so should have no reason not to follow the game play. But it seems that as time as gone by, you have been separating yourself more and more from the game, not being as analytical as you were before, etc. This makes me wonder why. I guess that I shouldn’t say that I think it is scummy it is just interesting. Interesting because with less analysis and activity, you start to lose that pro-town feel that you are looking out for the best of the town. I wish I could get more here but I’m having trouble reading into you much more than that…

I've said this multiple times. I have exams in January and studying takes up the majority of my time; and the overnight walls of text in this game make it a hard read. I'm sorry if my activity is lacking, and I will correct that once I'm through with the exams (if I don't have to go again, the last one's on jan. 7th)

is this the post of a scumbuddy letting his partner know that "I'm bussing you, and I'm going to be lurking, so please don't freak out that my vote is on you"?

Tubmeister, what happened to this :

sorry catching up, i appologize for my absence sick kids,

thing is owe, case on IP and case on Korts _ probably post by tonite

i completely lost track of it,

was tubby planning on building a case against his scumbuddy and one Other player? Did he decide to bail on that idea? Why didn't he ever present his case?
The most simple answer I can think of is that OP is his partner, and the game totally looked lost.

remember this?

{large graphics removed}

and the way that insaneP joined the rage and tubby wagons without what I consider to be good reasons, leads me to suspect that he is more likely to be scum than tubby.

Hmm. Adel makes a fair point. But after the implied connection between tubby and Adel, I'd really like to see tubby lynched; if he does flip scum, the connection is now slightly more strongly implied.

I'm confident enough of Adelscum's skills to presume she wouldn't outright defend tubby, and she did vote him to L-1 recently; but I also think Adelscum wouldn't turn down the opportunity to lynch someone else over an incriminated partner, if she thinks she can make a strong enough case. And IP is the perfect target in case of a tubby-Adel scumteam.

hmmm.... after this post I hammered tubby as soon as afatchic placed tubby at lynch -1

the next day...

First off, I support massclaiming tomorrow rather than today. It's pretty clear we're not in lylo yet.

Second, Adel is suspicious for suggesting two godfathers. Such a setup would render any cop practically useless, and since we know there was one cop at least, I'm more than prepared to rule out such a thing. I get the feeling you're just trying to avoid narrowing the field of suspicion down; Ecto is near-confirmed at this point.

I dont think we should mass claim. They still have to kill me, because regardless of what my power is, Im confirmed town.

You're nearly confirmed, but I wouldn't call you 100% confirmed yet. There's some chance of a 4-player scumgroup, with you and ThAdmiral as scum, however unlikely.

I dont think we should mass claim. They still have to kill me, because regardless of what my power is, Im confirmed town.

or a godfather.

Pushing this theory is not constructive. It is more than unlikely that there would be two godfathers.

Vig kill of Rage, but no scum kill would indicate another town role of roleblocker or protector. Would it really be best to mass claim in that situation?

Yes, we would have PR + who he protected as confirmed innocents.

Unless enough of their confirmed innocents are dead to make claiming unprofitable. If they haven't claimed yet, they shouldn't now.

As for Adel and tubby's previous interactions; if the connection that was implied by tubby's defense of Adel was one-sided, I would doubt my read and have to consider that tubby may have been tying himself to town, but Adel's voting pattern late into yesterday very much implies half-hearted support of the tubby-wagon (i.e. distancing/bussing). She also started pressuring IP when tubby came alarmingly close to the lynch threshold; there's no real doubt in my mind about her.

vote: Adel

I think that any theory that has be as scum needs to explain:
1. why I am so active (both in posting and in voting), and drawing so much attention to myself
2. why I built the wagon on tubby
3. why I hammered tubby.

If there are any other reasons anyone has for thinking I am scum, please let me know, so I can address them.

[Adel]

Back.

I don't think using whether someone has been replaced as a town tell is a good idea. It is a very unreliable tell at best.

I attempted to prove that it was, and failed. I now agree.

@ Adel: if you had to choose out of ip and afatchic who would you choose?
also
why do you think kison is town?

I keep on flip flopping. Right now IP. I had Kison in the town category because of the absence of alarming scumtells, his early vote on tubby, and how many times he was replaced. Whenever I start to suspect that he is lurking, I see that his activity level in this game remains about the same compared to his activity in other parts of this site.

[Adel]

Whenever I start to suspect that he is lurking, I see that his activity level in this game remains about the same compared to his activity in other parts of this site.

which is totally not true for afatchic, but is true for everyone else.

check it out: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... r=afatchic

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... epenguin02
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... thor=Kison
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... thor=Korts
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... =ThAdmiral
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... uthor=Adel
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... Ectomancer

unvote, vote: afatchic

[Adel]

better yet, proof that afatchic is not overwhelmed by his other games: from the replacements thread:

[mrow]

Requested

[col]

Name/Type/Flavor

[col]

Moderator

[col]

Length

[col]

Notes

January 21st

[col]

Mini 727 - Mafia in Standardville

[col]

LlamaFluff

[col]

Day 1, 14 pages

[col]

Replacing BSG, active group of players. Automatic three week deadlines, day one deadline January 25th.

Found thanks to afatchic

with a fairly recent join date and just under 10 posts per day posting average, his lack of activity in this game must be alignment based.

[Adel]

which is totally not true for afatchic, but is true for everyone else.

check it out: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... r=afatchic

fail.

I didn't bother to look at page two+, so all that looking at his posts really proves is that he hasn't posted in this game much for almost a week.

unvote

[Adel]

1) Initial pressure you provided
2) The ditching

the ditching? which time? I got on and of a few times to make my future actions more difficult for scum to anticipate.
The ditching was partially to get an alternative going (always a good idea), and partially because I didn't have as strong of a case against tubby as I would like.

[Adel]

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

Hmm... I think both a new player sample and an overall sample would be good. I'll try to collect figures sometime<tm>. How would you handle someone replaced multiple times? Would you give them a value equal to the number of times they're replaced?

for overall (new player is more complicated)
(number of times vanilla townie players were replaced)/(number of vanilla townies)= (town replacement rate)
(number of times mafia players were replaced)/(number of mafia players) = (mafia replacement rate)
does that look ok?

[Adel]

1) Initial pressure you provided
2) The ditching

the ditching? which time? I got on and of a few times to make my future actions more difficult for scum to anticipate.
The ditching was partially to get an alternative going (always a good idea), and partially because I didn't have as strong of a case against tubby as I would like.

Ditching in general, but the one I pointed out yesterday(the one for 'unstated reasons') was the one that caught my eye and gave me a deja vu. You say that creating an alternative wagon is always a good idea - is this something you typically do as town?

Ecto's case against IP and my own unease about how quickly IP placed tubby at L-1 without warning were the unstated reasons.

I was about to that that it is something that I typically do, but I don't know if I can prove it. It is something I've been aware for for a while, but it usually isn't very difficult for me to make sure there are two competing wagons (when I am town, allowing a lack of competing wagons in a day was a scumtell of mine until right now).

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

Hmm... I think both a new player sample and an overall sample would be good. I'll try to collect figures sometime<tm>. How would you handle someone replaced multiple times? Would you give them a value equal to the number of times they're replaced?

for overall (new player is more complicated)
(number of times vanilla townie players were replaced)/(number of vanilla townies)= (town replacement rate)
(number of times mafia players were replaced)/(number of mafia players) = (mafia replacement rate)
does that look ok?

Do you think that counting only vanilla VS counting

all

forms of mafia(including those with roles) will sway the results?

hmmm... actually I think vanilla good vs. vanilla townie would be the best basis of comparison. The danger is that you would have to include so many games that changes in the meta get ironed out. Generally you probably have about 1.5 vanilla goons in each 12-player mininormal, and a good sample size would be ~60, so that would be all of the 12-player mini-normals on the two most recent pages of little Italy. Plotting each game's (townie replacement rate) and (vanilla goon replacement rate) on a chart against game number would also give a general idea of how the meta is changing with time. We can estimate that the current meta is projected about two months further along the rolling average line, and get testable predictions from the model.

[Adel]

60/1.5 = 40. There should be more than 40 completed mini normals on the first page of Little Italy, right? I think each forum page holds up to 75 threads.

there are too many active games, abandoned games, and open games -- there aren't 40 finished 12-player mini-normal games on the first page.

remember, before he linked me to tubby, Korts linked me to someone else:

What is your conclusion from this, Adel?

that you found me suspicious and tried to link me to someone before you tried to link me to tubby.

Rememebr that Korts stayed on the Rage wagon longer than others, and voted for tubby only after Kison, Ecto, IP and I did, and then only once Ecto and IP and I had unvoted. tubby only had one vote when Korts placed a second vote on him at 681.

And from this? I don't see the purpose in bringing these up, especially since you simply state facts and not your conclusions drawn from them. Almost like you're suggesting to the town what to look at, without having to commit to an opinion.

Are you accusing me of offering evidence rather than suspicions and not cramming my theory down the throats of others? guilty.

I am pointing out things that I think are important to look at in order for a townie to make an informed decision.

is this the post of a scumbuddy letting his partner know that "I'm bussing you, and I'm going to be lurking, so please don't freak out that my vote is on you"?

Or the post of a mechanical engineer student facing three exams in a row? I wasn't making excuses for my vote, I was making excuses for not being 100% up to date.

ok. Have you ever been in a game where a scum player offered a bogus excuse for his voting or activity?

I think that any theory that has be as scum needs to explain:
1. why I am so active (both in posting and in voting), and drawing so much attention to myself

Activity isn't a tell of anything, in particular. I'm not aware of your scum play involving lurking on a regular basis, therefore I don't see how your general activeness should be a towntell. Scum may be just as active in posting and voting. You should know better than to ask this.

I don't "know better" because I know how I play differently when I am scum.

lol @ "I'm not aware of your scum play involving lurking on a regular basis"
have you even bothered to look at any of my games as scum, or is it something that you haven't gotten around to yet, like when you said you were going to look at tubby's posts on that other site.

I watched you in crackers. I know you are lazy with your "scumhuntung" when you are scum.

2. why I built the wagon on tubby

Possible bussing. The pressure on tubby was big enough even without you. Kison, in particular, started questioning tubby pretty much at the same time you did.

bullshit. I led, others followed. tubby felt pressure mostly from me. I kept the pressure up until there was a case against him, and there was very little evidence against him that I didn't generate.

tubby's play had been lurkish and non-committal throughout the game, it would've been noticed sooner or later anyway,

like ThAdmiral and afatchic have been noticed? It is one thing to notice, and it is another to actually

do

something about it.
You have failed to productively contribute to hte efforts of the town in this game, and you accuse me of being scum for being responsible for a "pre-emptive bus".
lol. you silly.

and the Godfather didn't have any utility any more; I don't see why you couldn't have opted for a pre-emptive bus as scum.

it would be a very sub-optimal play.

3. why I hammered tubby.

Again, quite possible a scenario is bussing. After spotting the implied connection between you and tubby, you could expect Kison and me to push tubby's lynch the next day as well, so why not comply and maybe get the chance to semi-confirm yourself?

I'm fairly sure you realize how these questions fail to prove the case against you wrong.

I know that you are aware that your kind of circular reasoning could be used to build a "case" against anyone.

The case on afatchic is based on his relative inactivity in this game when compared to elsewhere on site;

fail. please reread again.

while I agree that it is suspicious, I would think that he would be lurking for tactical reasons only if he were under pressure, which I don't see.

Giving up, good. Now town, please take Adel's advice.

This day has drawn on long enough.

I really beg to differ. In fact, I'd really like to hear lots more from ThAdmiral and afatchic. Why are you in such a hurry?

I was in a "hurry" because my conviction in Adel hasn't been made any less certain by recent arguments, and the discussion prior to my post you're referencing looked to me like it was fading into irrelevance to the game itself. Naturally the best thing to do in cases like that is to lynch.

you have "conviction" that I am scum? why? what is your case against me? that I "bussed and hammered tubby"?

[Adel]

I have not looked at any games where you were town.

~~~

How many times did I unvote tubby when he was at L-1? Which of those times (post numbers, please) do you find suspicious?

~~~

you may be interested in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7187 -- the last time I was a scum IC in a newbie game. My pathetic scumbuddy got lynched day 2 on a wagon I did nothing to prevent, and I used the fact that I wasn't on his wagon as evidence that I wasn't his scum buddy by showing how often scum ICs bus their newbie partners. Look at this game to see how I don't panic as my scumbuddy gets lynched. I was very active on day 1, and I was less active in the following days. I attracted attention with a day 1 gambit that "cleared" me to everyone except MoS, who I nk'd N1.

shortly after that I was in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7625 iPick, and failed horribly. I had a weak bus of cicero, IIRC, but both of us played very weakly. Kison almost won that game for us, BTW. I don't recall any panic in this game. I was not very active in this game. I didn't get townie to lynch each other in this game, and I didn't manipulate wagon mechanics very well either. I totally failed to recognize fakeclaims that would've saved the game for our side.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8222 was SMM2, in which I was once again scum with Kison. The structure of that game guaranteed that I would be revealed as scum before the game ended, so I focused on corrupting the signal to noise ratio, and generating (through indirect means) the evidence necessary for townies to lynch each other. I faked confusion and panic in this game. I was very active in this game. I was all about attracting attention and getting lynched in a way that would let TheFonz and Kison lurk though and give coverage to their perfectly weak bus against each other.

ThAdmiral was in a mini-normal with me as scum about a year and a half a go. After we passed on lynching the village idiot and NK'd MoS N1, ABR replaced in (this was during his period of "repalce into every game Adel is in and lynch her" and MoS replaced the village idiot. So MoS and ABR got me lynched, in my second game as scum. I was active in that game.
I attracted attention on day 1 to discredit MoS so that we could NK him N1 without fearing doctor protection. (It turned out that the doc could self-protect, and did on a couple of critical nights)

In short, I believe that I have had two games as scum on this site where it could be said that I "panicked". ABR was in both games, and went out of his way to lynch me in both games, as he did in every game we were in together since our first. ABR's grudge against me was an "outside of game" complication that still really pisses me off. We lost every game we were in together where we shared an alignment (except for one assassins in the palace game) and it made mafia very much not fun for me.


~~~

I am very interested in hearing afatchic's and ThAdmiral's opinion of Kort's alignment. If you had to choose between IP and Korts, who would you choose, and why? What do you think of Korts having "conviction" that I was scum earlier on this page, and now he is on the fence?

[Adel]

regarding getting replaced as a town tell: while we haven't quantified if it is a universal tell or not, I didn't directly point out why I thought that it was a town-tell: of the games I have replaced into, more than 15 times I replaced a town-aligned player, and only once did I replace a scum-aligned player.

[Adel]

Pop quiz:

1. Who accused who of bussing darkdude?
2. What are the post numbers that contain those accusations?
3. Who accused who of bussing tubby?
4. What are the post numbers that contain those accusations?

[Adel]

vote: insanepenguin02

[Adel]

@Kison: please pick a wagon to support before Ecto voices his opinion.

[Adel]

regarding massclaim:
1. there are 7 alive
2. 1 (very small chance of 2) scum are still alive
3. there are 0, 1 or 2 guns in the hands of town players
4. it is not a good idea to wait until lylo or mislynch and lose to massclaim. (a good fakeclaim = autowin for scum)
5. town directed vig kills increases the town-directed-kill to scum-kill ratio.
6. we probably want to use any guns available tonight
7. revealing power-role targets will probably result in confirmed innocents.
8. without massclaim we can't accurately evaluate the odds of there being 4 mafia players in the setup

with 1 gun in town hands:
lynch + vig kill + maf kill = 4 alive tomorrow =mislynch and lose (loss in the case of two living scum players)

with two guns in town hands:
lynch + 2 vig kills + maf kill = 3 alive tomorrow = lylo (loss if there are two living scum players)

[Adel]

not popcorn. let ecto direct the claim order one claim at a time.

[Adel]

sure, do you want us to use the same claim order?

[Adel]

no gun here

[Adel]

dead people could be carrying the guns...hopefully.

what are your thoughts on the merits of a massclaim before this day is over?

[Adel]

just to be clear, when I claimed "no gun" I meant that I do not have one now, and I never did have one.

Is the same true for everyone else?

[Adel]

anyhow, I'm down for lynching IP without further discussion.