Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[Elmo]

Hi. Who's scum?

[Elmo]

Oh, I read the game, I just find that kind of question helpful. I find people who've been here for a while tend to have a different perspective on what happened than a replacement.

[Elmo]

The above post seems to indicate we are collectively tunnel-vision'd into "Macavity and MM are arguing, therefore exactly one of them are scum". This is not a good thing.

Macavity seems townish to me; what is the case against MM?

[Elmo]

Irony.

Unvote

,

vote

:

StrangerCoug

.

Llamafluff, who are Apocs buddies? Why's he more deserving of your vote than SC?

MM - just for the reason that SC came to her defense.

SC is that scummy? Also, scum are that blatant? You seem to be a human echo, at the moment - why is that?

[Elmo]

Ecstatic with my vote.

I am behind the curve due to being ill. I will reread Atlas (and possibly others) in 2-3 days. Or your money back.

[Elmo]

That is like the laziest fakeclaim ever. E- for effort.

Unvote

.

So I wonder what the next scumbag to get run up will fakeclaim? PLACE BETS NOW.

[Elmo]

367 doesn't seem like a scumtell to me. Wrong, but not scummy. Zeppo looks worse than him to me.

[Elmo]

Dear god, the fact StrangerCoug is still breathing pains me.

I don't see why this is arousing this much angst and suspicion.

I have no idea, either. It's ridiculous.

In other news, Apoth is imploding.

Apoth is fine. Explain yourself.

[Elmo]

The idea that (dumb) townies fakeclaim is not really scummy to my mind. What I missed is that he previously agreed with LlamaFluff's post on SC. What's changed, Apoth? What's your current view on SC's alignment, and why?

[Elmo]

I do think Zeppo is breathing a little much into SC coming to MM's defense.

But he's just searching for any tells that might help further the game

. He's also quite analytical of posts at times.

Why do you say that about Zeppo? I can think of a number of reason he'd be doing that as scum, and he seems scummy to me. You seem to write him off as town for no apparent reason, here. Why is that? Where has he been "quite analytical" of posts, and what does that fact tell us about him?

[Elmo]

I don't see you and Apoth being scumbuddies tho so the entire situation seems fairly... weird.

Why not? What's weird about it?

[Elmo]

Apothecary: What you thought is noted. More important, right now, is

why

you thought it. Why - as in, what

reasons

did you have - did you think he was scum? How have your reasons changed, and why?

Anything predicated on SC-scum is clearly made of win and correctness.

Hi, Jazz! You're scum, right?

[Elmo]

Apothecary: ..reasons, monsieur?

Atlas's avatar seems very pro-town to me. Where is Mitey? I don't remember seeing anything damning, but there's a lot of fluff in her posting. Worse, it occurs that she makes a good buddy for SC, who is scum. Hmm. Mitey, who's scum?

I also feel the rumblings of a Jazzmyn wagon deep in my stomach.

[Elmo]

Apothecary: On why you thought SC was town after agreeing with LlamaFluff's post on him. I believe you said you thought he was scum, and you seem to have changed your mind, and I'd like a solid reason as to why.
StrangerCoug: I'm not worried about it. That was meant to indicate that I was considering pushing for it.

[Elmo]

after reading through that post, I do believe that SC is scum

(time passes)

I don't believe SC's claim. But I don't believe he's a scum either

You seem to say what you believe clearly, in both places. Not that it's possible, but "I don't believe he's scum".

Do you

currently

believe SC is scum? Why?

[Elmo]

I don't believe SC's claim. But I don't believe he's a scum either

When you wrote this, did you believe that SC was not scum? I assume yes; if not, please spell it out for me. Assuming yes: Why did you think he was town, at that point, when you thought he was scum before?

I feel like maybe I should be looking closer at Ythill - Llama. Can one of you sum it up in a paragraph?

[Elmo]

Hi, Jazz! You’re scum, right?

Wrong.

Oh, okay. Sorry, happens.

It occurs to me that I don't think Mitey ever said anything about SC. Or, like, anything relevant. Turns out it's not hard to avoid doing suspicious things if you don't ever do anything.

One of the mafia is Mitey, and her buddy is looking to be Cougar right now. Not just because both of them are scummy, but some buddy-tellish actions. Specifically Mitey "following" Cougar on Cephir/Evilgorrilaz and a bit of coaching to Mitey.

Feels like I'm in a time warp, I just came round to ^ this viewpoint. #3 is liable to be.. Apoth or Ythill? I am not really too hot on LF's thing, but then I haven't really read it properly.

I have an unholy number of town reads at this point. Irritatingly. We should probably be lynching one of Apothecary or MiteyMouse, based on how Apoth responds and if MM ever starts doing stuff.

*goes back to playing chess and being lazy and just skimming the game, woo*

[Elmo]

LF: Ythill's stance looks daft to me, from what I recall.

Elmo's #470 exemplifies the phrase wishy-washy.

In what dialect is "we should probably lynch one of these two people today" wishy-washy?

[Elmo]

As per sig, my computer is screwed up for a while. Sorry. Off the top of my head:
* I have no idea why having multiple suspects is supposed to be "wishy-washy". We are looking for more than one scumbag, obviously? If one played perfectly, you'd just say "these x people are scum".
* I haven't contradicted myself. "Yhill's stance is daft" does not contradict "I'm not too hot on LF's case against Yhill , but then I haven't read it fully".

I am arbitrarily going to make a list, since Yhill called me wishy-washy.

MacavityLock - town
Corvuus - town
Jazzmyn - town
Atlas - town
LLamaFluff - townish (probably higher if he wasn't good scum)
Cephrir - somewhat townish
~~~ WAGON BELOW HERE ~~~
Ythill - at least somewhat scummy, needs more readin'
Apothecary - scummy or just odd depending on response
~~~ DAYVIG BELOW HERE ~~~
MiteyMouse - scummy
StrangerCoug - scum

The way SC+Yhill appear to be flocking together against LF reinforces my belief. LF is probably town independently. I disagree with what Yhill said about LF to the extent I have read it; Yhill is somewhere between daft and scummy based on that alone. I am not 110% convinced by what LF wrote in response off-hand, there may be something in it, but again I haven't read it enough to be all DIESCUMDIE to Yhill if there is.

Sidenote that comes to mind. LF, I know exactly the feeling that no-one is listening, and it sucks. Which is why I felt guilty and planned to reread soon. But then shit happened, so it'll be a little longer. Erp.

I am actually going to

vote

:

MiteyMouse

again, as encouragment for her to comment on the meat of the game. She seems to keep sniping at side issues (like Cephrir not reading fully) rather than actually get her hands dirty with something relevant like Apothecary or LF-Yhill. That behaviour tends to be a favourite of scum trying to stay out of the way. We should wagon her until at least she shows some sign of getting into the thick of it. No, this does not mean I have forgotten about Apothecary, merely that I am capable of doing more than one thing at a time.

Also, condolances, Jazz.

[Elmo]

Apothecary seems to be getting a disproportionate amount of flak for what he actually did. The only thing I found interesting was his contradiction with respect to SC. His stance on claims is mixed up, lots of newbies bring up No Lynch, the "misrepresentation" looks more like misinterpretation to me, "not making sense" is not a scumtell, etc. I dislike this situation, because (from my point of view) he could still flip scum fairly easily, but nonetheless I don't like the way this wagon's going, and feel a need to state that.

I also really don't like the timing of qwint's vote. Comes in, here are my initial impressions on a quick read through, now let me put someone at L-1 seven hours later with an epicly weak reason. That's pretty opportunistic, at best; I could easily see a scumbag coming in and trying to push through the easy lynch. 541 is a pretty terrible reason for a vote, even in isolation.

If I had to pick Apoth or MM for scum in a void I think I'd go for MM, but now that Apoth has claimed vanilla it's probably best to lynch him.

No way, active lurker >>> claimed vanilla. She is

dying

for a wagon.

I

should

get read up within a couple days now, unless something else goes wrong with my computer.

[Elmo]

It takes four votes to lynch at deadline, so anyone who would actually prefer MM being lynched and isn't currently voting Apoth should feel free to vote her. For example, Cephrir.

I find it interesting that you're calling MM an active lurker. I read through his posts and didn't see many posts that screamed lurker.

I remember skimming through her posts, looking for her stance on Apothecary and LlamaFluff - Ythill. They're not there; realising that, I looked again, and she doesn't seem to have taken a noticable stance on any of the central issues of the game, the recent "Cephrir isn't fully reading" being a prime example of the kind of "sideline" issue she seems to have concentrated on. Go look. It's the perfect way for scum to look active while avoiding scrutiny. (Proviso, I'm going from memory here, but that's my impression.)

I don't really get The Scum Vibe from Apoth, although it's hard to tell - he's pretty mixed up. But I prefer at least attempting to wagon MM, right now.

I am heinously behind and have not reread LlamaFluff - Ythill. I'll try and do that before Day 2 dawns. I still think the scumgroup is some varient of {SC, MM} + one of {Ythill, Apoth}, with Ythill somewhat more likely. I don't like the disinterest in the L-1 vote; feels like you've been waiting to do that rather than really trying to get him to convince you.

[Elmo]

I can't remember what part of this I already said. Lurking is not posting, with the effect of depriving the town of information, since there's nothing to analyse. Active lurking is posting, but posting things that result in a similar effect; an extreme example would be someone who only posted to comment on theory debates about WIFOM. They're posting, but it isn't doing any good. More generally, scum generally want to avoid having to Do Stuff, because it increases the chances of them slipping up. The best example that comes to mind is probably Patrick in Open 54, who spent most of day 1 questioning.. I think it was wank about something completely tangental.

Active lurking is not directly related to lurking, in my mind. Lurking can be disinterest, RL issues, etc. Active lurking comes from a definite intent to skate around having to genuinely scumhunt, and is always scummy. If someone's town and remotely trying to win, they'll be genuinely hunting scum, and there'll be fairly obvious evidence of that in-thread. Scum can try and fake it, and some do so very sucessfully, but people

not doing it

are very likely to be scum.

Again, it's the absence of scumhunting, the "coasting" vibe, rather than some lack of activity that I take issue with. She is trying to look like she's doing stuff rather than

actually

doing stuff. For example, stating she's suspicious of Cephrir and then

not doing anything about it

is a tell. Has she pressured him, made a case in an attempt to start a wagon, asked him incisive questions to try and further figure out his alignment? No, just flatly stated that. And it seems to be working.

[Elmo]

MiteyMouse has asked for a replacement. I am looking for one now.

OMFG ELMO IS ONTO MEEE !!!

Proof that SC is an evil villain here. I guess that makes Apothecary the valiant hero of the piece.

I should totally be more helpful, but my head is killing me.

[Elmo]

I already named my other suspects—you and

MiteyMouse

Uh, where did you name her as a suspect?

[Elmo]

I am around and will move my vote sometime soon. In fact,

unvote, vote StrangerCoug

.

I'm just continually depressed by the way scum always get away with fakeclaiming day 1. This may not be the optimal vote, but I feel entitled to a little irrationality now and again. And it'll feel a hell of a lot better to get a scum lynch then I'll feel annoyed if we lynch the doc, when they played like that.

[Elmo]

p.s. That is lynch - 1.

Unofficial vote count:
Apothecary 4 - (StrangerCoug, MacavityLock, Corvuus, Ythill)
StrangerCoug 5 - (OhGodMyLife, Qwints, LLamaFluff, Cephrir, Elmo)

Not voting 2 - (Apothecary, Jazzmyn)
4 at deadline, 6 before.

[Elmo]

THOR APPROVES OF THIS OFFERING

[Elmo]

Day 2 vote: Ythill

GET 'EM IN EARLY FOLKS

[Elmo]

I never got around to reading Ythill - LF. See? Laziness pays off! (Okay, I thought LF would be the one dying, but still.)

Either a) the scum got some power tell off him or b) a kill was blocked and he was killed by a third party. A SK would probably be wanted to hit town with the mafia getting kerb stomped D1, so I tend towards a vig. Hence, discussion of the kill should probably stop now. Don't see us getting much from it even if it was a scumkill.

OGML, Mac is prob town imo. Cephrir I am more vague about. I will read whatever you dig up.

One thing I should actually do is go back and look at that wagon. There is a very short list of roles that mafia should be risking outing themselves to keep alive a little longer, and mafia RB is at the absolute top of that. Hence, bussing out the mafia RB on day 1 takes at least some serious cajones, and is probably just a stupid move in any setup.

[Elmo]

Dead:

StrangerCoug

(Mafia Roleblocker)

lynched Day One

If there was more than one mafia group, they would have a family identifier, like "Russian Mafia Roleblocker" or something. I'd take this as pretty much confirming we only have a single mafia group. Not sure how more than that is going to work in a mini normal of 11 players, anyway.

[Elmo]

Explaining your votes, however,

is

helpful.

I found a scum! All aboard!

Reasoning please!

Later!

In the words of primate,

[Elmo]

Yeah, but I had a reason.

And why do you assume that qwints does not? It looks like when you do it, it's helpful because you have a reason; when someone does it to you, it's unhelpful. That's roughly what you've said. Yes?

Ceph, what do you think are the strongest reasons to believe Apoth is scum?

[Elmo]

I'm in the irritating position of having Cephrir top of the list of people I would happily wagon, while this wagon smells kinda scum-driven. I can't currently think of anyone better to lynch, but I want reasons before we end the day, at minimum. qwints getting on a probable lynching wagon with "you're not helpful" exemplifies things that make me uneasy.

Qwints, what are your strongest couple of reasons for voting Cephrir?
Jazz, what was it that you twigged in 736?
Corvuus - please think of an insightful question that I could ask you about Cephrir and answer it.

[Elmo]

I came back last night after Christmas shopping and wrapping presents, and started to re-read the thread very carefully from the beginning. I got through the first 17 pages and then, literally, fell asleep at my desk exhausted, only to wake up in the middle of the night to toddle off to bed before continuing my shopping and wrapping today.

This is why I stopped doing that.

[Elmo]

Ceph, being :nothelpful: because you'll be lynched anyway is a self-fulfilling prophesy. It can't possibly hurt you if you're town.

I'm not convinced you're scum, for the record, but I have no strong reason to believe you're town, and I've been bitten by defending scum I'm not sure about before. And everyone else is at least trying to seem helpful and townish; who do you propose we lynch instead of you?

Looking at the SC wagon, I have this disquieting feeling that he was nonetheless bussed by at least one buddy. I think perhaps the mafioso in question felt that it would be far too obvious in later days if they didn't go with it. Hmm.

LF, why do you think Macavity's scum(my)? What's your opinion of Atlas - not the role i.e. Qwints, the posts made by the player Atlas previously? Also.. why llama fluff?
Jazz, what specific reasons for lynching Cephrir do you agree with? 759 seems pretty weak, especially when this wagon's gone awfully fast. If Ceph flipped town, do you think there are scum on the wagon? If I told you for certain there were, who would you suspect?

I would like to second LlamaFluff's "just a piece missing" feeling. Hmm.

[Elmo]

p.s. My suspicions have changed a fair bit since the List, so don't hold me to that. Just saying.

[Elmo]

One thing to bear in mind is that considering SC was bussed (and I am just going to assume this, because I find it bemusing if he wasn't) then the scum generally have a ready-made plan to push the mislynch of anyone who was less enthusiastic than them. That doesn't mean I suspect OGML for pushing the wagon (town is also going to be looking for links to dead scum) but I feel scum would be flocking to this if Ceph was town. Hence, reasons. If we do lynch CephScum then we're in a very strong position anyway, so let's think about getting information to use on later days if he's town. I feel especially Jazz and qwints have joined this wagon with no-one really scrutinising their reasons.

I'm also pretty sure I have far too many town reads at this point. Part of the problem is that Cephrir is top of my list by virtue of being "least townish" rather than anything really suspicious. So while I'm queasy about this wagon, I don't have a better alternative, and honestly the :nothelpful: makes me struggle to care that deeply. But I still have the "this smells of mislynch" feeling.

[Elmo]

qwints, you gave three reasons why you suspected Cephrir. He argued against three of them, and you responded to one. Your point was that he backed off Primate, yet in the post you just quoted, he clearly gives a reason for unvoting. Your reasons seem alarmingly weak to me.

1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction
2) Pulled an about face on Primate
3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration

I want you to explain why the specific instance of him voting without a reason is scummy.
I want to to show what specifically about #2 is scummy.
I want you to show examples of #3.

His refusal to defend and unvote of OGML are further evidence for me.

If I remember correctly, part of the stated case against him was his OGML vote. Why is his unvoting OGML scummy?

[Elmo]

/checks in

[Elmo]

I don't think Ceph is scum. I don't strongly think he's town, either, and I can't bring myself to defend the :nothelpful:, and I don't really have a better lynch lined up. But qwints can expect a grilling tomorrow from me if Ceph flips town (I imagine I've made the point by now). That said, I don't see this day going anywhere else, so I don't object to ending the day.

I also have this question mark about LF. I am curious why (going from memory) you said ML going back to Apoth is a "huge black mark" against him, it doesn't strike me as scummy rather than a disagreement with you. This is moreso because I think he's quite likely town.

[Elmo]

I agree that Apoc is less likely to be scum because of SC's interactions with him, but I don't see why ML's suspicion "feels wrong" as opposed to a townie being misguided. It seemed quite natural, from what I recall, not like he dived into it... what specifically do you think he's less likely to have done if he were town?

[Elmo]

Elmo... He's been a strong pusher for the Ceph wagon. I don't think he's scum, but I strongly disliked the wagon.

I what what the what? Are you confusing me with OGML?

[Elmo]

The only thing making me hestitate over pushing for a qwints lynch is the pretty town vibe I got from Atlas; having said that, it was pretty much just a vague impression I got, I want to go back and reread.. but my computer just died on me, so . It'd be good if people who haven't done so (I can only remember LF commenting) would give their opinon of Atlas and maybe qwints, especially his reasons for Ceph vote.

I do currently think that if Ceph is town, then there's probably scum in {Qwints, Jazzmyn}, and I'm increasingly leaning towards CephTown the longer this wagon goes on, though. Also, I keep thinking that this is no majority no lynch for some reason, the actual deadline mechanics mean that a non-Ceph wagon doesn't need that many other votes to go places. So what I said about this probably ending in a Ceph lynch anyway is not quite right. Hmm.

[Elmo]

It's more like, the longer it goes on, the more reactions we get from him and other people. Pretty much all the reactions to his wagon have moved me in the direction of CephTown.

The biggest thing is that currently, pretty much everyone wants a Ceph lynch. Literally the only vote elsewhere has been ML on Apoth, and I seriously doubt that's a calculated scum vote because it'd be staggeringly obvious to a scum-ML that an Apoth wagon wouldn't build, at least today. And he's been pretty consistent, even after that's obvious to him. So basically, we can say that some scum are among everyone, and everyone wants Ceph lynched; as such, the scum wants (or are at least fine with) a Ceph lynch. I'm pretty sure that e.g. qwints and Jazzmyn are good with a Ceph lynch regardless of their actual alignment, now. And deductively, if the scum wanted Ceph not to be lynched, then they'd usually start a wagon on someone else.

Now, the scum voting block has been "diluted" quite a bit (sketch numbers, they've lost a third, we've lost an eighth) and if Ceph's scum, then logically he's probably only got one buddy, so they might be a bit constrained in what they could do. But there is just this complete lack of anyone else trying to get some action going that really bugs me. I think they have a third, and I think they'd try.

That.. aaand I've always thought Ceph was a bit townish, it's just that the margin of error isn't huge because he's (in my perception) not very pro-town when he is town, and for quite a while he didn't do a huge amount. I generally won't defend anyone that I don't have a fairly strong town read on, simply because sometimes shitty wagons form on scum; if you say "hey that's a shitty wagon" even when it is, it looks scummy afterwards in a way that's very difficult to defend against and tends to get you lynched. He's been somewhat more townish since his wagon started, in my opinion.

That, and Ceph seems to be being wagoned by process of elimination; that is, I don't know who else I'd want to lynch (at least before the Ceph wagon) because everyone looks fairly town. I suspect at least one scumbag is good scum, e.g. Jazz/LF, actually. I don't think he's looked scummy, personally, just not very pro-town; my experience is he doesn't try very hard to actually look townish. From that perspective, I don't find it hugely appealing, and actually I dislike those kinds of lynches. If it's a mislynch, everyone just sorta shrugs their shoulders and goes "meh" afterwards.

[Elmo]

The fact that there was only the one kill means very probably we only have one killing group, the mafia, which means very probably scum had some motive to kill off Ythill on night 1. That's weird, because he looked like a prime day 2 mislynch. This bugs me. (I will whack people thinking nightkill speculation is a scumtell with an MD post if necessary.)

I will not bother reciting everything I said yesterday and

vote qwints

for the present. I would like a detailed explanation of why Cephrir was supposed to be scum. Also curious on Jazzmyn's views.

[Elmo]

I'm gonna

unvote

.. I don't like what I remember of qwints, but that was a pressure-y vote rather than a "die plz" one. I'm not entirely happy leaving it there when I basically haven't talked to him much, and still haven't really talked to Jazzmyn when I'm not wild about some of her reasoning either. (How is the illness, Jazz?)

I approve (in theory terms) of qwints' attitude to claiming.. you can consider me as not asking you to claim right now, though obviously I might do so later.

I have persistent bad vibes from LF. Some of that is his interactions with ML; I was in a game with ML that's now finished, where he was scum and I was town, and his play seems different here. (There was a particular mechanic that made me misread him early game there, though.) I suppose that's fairly dependent on ML's alignment, but LF's comment about "hammer if needed" reads like stretching to me. Hrm.

[Elmo]

Hi. Stuff happened, I won't bore you all, I'm mostly back now. I have the beginnings of an actual post saved someplace, I'll get back into this tomorrow; just saying that I'm still alive, really. =P

[Elmo]

I'm having that thing where I've been away from the game for ages and now I have difficulty getting back into the swing of things. I am "back" but have just neglected to do anything today.

I am still suspicious of MacavityLock, primarily because of the complete lack of interaction between him and StrangerCougar on Day 1.

This much is interesting. I'm cagey about arguments that revolve around people

not

doing something, but given SC's play, I would have thought at least something would have happened if ML was huntin' for real. Bear in mind I am basically taking your word for it, it must be literally months since I reread that section of the game. My gut is stubbornly giving me a fairly town read on him, but I'd be interested in what he has to say about this specific point.

In other news.. see, I don't

think

Apoth is scum, but you have to correctly weigh things in mafia. I think SC's behaviour is a good sign, but I'm not prepared to let Apoth coast along without scrutiny indefinitely because of it. So I think we're getting too close to deadline to bother with really grilling him, but I'd /agree with someone (Jazz?) who said that we need to get him more "into it" and try and read his play directly, rather than playing WIFOM with dead scum. 'cuz his actual play I'm really don't know about, and I'd be nervous if we got to LyLo without moar from him. Actually, we're in LyLo tomorrow with 3 scum and a mislynch today. Crap. Oh well.

One thing I dislike is LF's stance on qwints. He said "oh the WIFOM" which seems an easy way out of taking a stance on qwints' actual behaviour... he'd look okay later regardless of qwints alignment. Also, painting ML as possible scum with Corvuus is pretty fail, Corvuus is obviously pro-town and I can't see any linkage between the two offhand. I'm not really in a position to make a case for it, but the bad vibes have reached the point where I'd be happy with a LF lynch, actually.

I don't have a lot to add to what other people said about qwints. I (twitch) need to reread but at least on first glance, I hafta agree with what Jazz posted about his hypothetical 'viewpoint' of SC. You can say it's

possible

that SC was bussing, but I can't see why it's supposed to be likely.

The big thing on my mind is the nightkills. qwints claiming to not protect OGML is pretty bad, he was obviously the one to protect to the extent that a big question in my mind is why the mafia even bothered targeting him. One conspiracy theory would be that LF's comment about Jazzmyn being "obv town" near the end of yesterday was designed to try and make the doc protect her instead of OGML, so they could kill him at night. That remark stuck in my head because it seemed somehow out of place. That and Ythill's death still puzzles me.

Muh. Maybe more tomorrow. I'm tempted to throw out a vote, but I'll refrain for now. /zzz

[Elmo]

Oh. I missed something:

I still think that OGML's case on Cephrir stands up

Why? I mean, what convinced you? A while back, I said I found your stated reasons weak, at the time; do you disagree?

[Elmo]

Nightkills still weird me out. I'd like more input, I feel like I'm missing something obvious. Why would you target the obv protected townie unless you knew/suspected he wouldn't be protected? So how'd they know he wouldn't be protected?

They didn't, they thought he was the doc. Ah. That's understandable. So why n2 and not n1? And why do you want to off Ythill? Meh. :/

As to qwints, I don't think I'll really make my mind up without a Jazz-style epic rereading spree. I do like

something

about his recent responses, though. If for some reason we didn't lynch qwints today, who would people go for? (This is mostly so we don't get de facto locked into one lynch.)

[Elmo]

This game is pretty quiet. Hrm.

You've got MM playing a very conservative, stay-out-of-the-limelight game (indeed because she was actually a power role, just not a doc), followed by OGML replacing in and immediately pushing very, very hard for the lynch of a claimed doc with no stated supporting reasons.

I still don't see why Ythill was targeted unless he somehow breadcrumbed his watcher role.

One way that makes sense is if LF is scum, since Ythill was the only person suspicious of him and his life is hassle-free since then. Even if Ythill's case was wrong, scum sometimes really do get lynched for the wrong reasons, and having scrutiny on you is a priori bad. This isn't a good reason to suspect LF, though, because it could just be something totally different that I haven't thought of, but honestly either him or Atlas (i.e. qwints) being scum have been on my mind since I saw the kill.

I'm serious about examining lynches other than qwints, he's basically the de facto lynch at this point, and I don't want a scramble at deadline if we decide not to lynch him.

I could well be WIFOMing myself here, but it's possible that SC saw his lynch coming and wanted to go down "reverse bussing", if that makes sense. It's unlikely, but it gives me the willies. I wish Apoth felt more townish, really.

I still need to reread and the lack of that getting done is beginning to irritate me. I'll probably throw a vote out tomorrow.

[Elmo]

vote LlamaFluff

952 stinks. You're saying you think he's town, but not actually trying to stop him being lynched; focussing on his claim without interacting at all with the case against him is the perfect way to set yourself up for "I told you so" tomorrow. (If qwints is scum, then it's obviously outright awful.)

[Elmo]

ML: I thought I posted this, I remember typing it. Bah. Basically, in a scumchat game something weird happened, and I figured I was probably getting lynched regardless, so I spent all the day attacking my scumbuddy, who went on to win in endgame. It's kind of like bussing in reverse, because it's me who gets lynched instead of him.

See, it doesn't make as much sense here, because I wouldn't have put Apoth's odds of going all the way very high considering day 1. But a problem I've always had is that sometimes scum do stuff that doesn't make any sense, even after the game. If SC was scum with Apoth, then if he gets lynched, then Apoth looks better, and vice versa; the meta on this site is such that scum will sometimes just reflex-bus without really thinking it through.

tl;dr - SC might have seen he'd be lynched and attack Apoth precisely coz of that.

I don't think it's highly likely, but it's a viable possibility, and the number of town reads I have gives me pause.

[Elmo]

Shoulda hit submit on this a while ago, bad habit. Was made before 962 was posted. Hi, Jazz, I'm amused by our overlapping suspect lists.

Qwints, I'm not liking how you seem to be jumping from person to person. First off, you put a lot of pressure on me and then, seemingly out of nowhere, jump onto MacavityLock. After less than a page later, you switch your vote to LlamaFluff. I know you claimed you would push a wagon on him if there was support, but jeez... Right now, I feel my vote is vindicated.

This doesn't make any sense. If Qwints is town, then Qwints is 100% sure that Qwints is town. Even if hypothetically Qwints was 90% sure that MacavityLock was town, he should still prefer to lynch MacavityLock than lynch Qwints, since there's a 10% chance of lynching scum vs. a 0% chance. Seriously, this is a bad post - provide a better reason for keeping your vote on Qwints, post-haste.

Something really really puts me off a qwints lynch. Not the claim itself. He just seems to be reacting townly, in particular switching his vote to LF instead of ML seems pro-town because there's been more support evidenced for ML, so that shows he's really thinking about who's more likely to be scum as opposed to just lynching someone other than him. I think a mafioso would be pushing ML right now. (Okay, it's technically possible that he's scum with ML, but I really don't think so.)

I am strongly opposed to a MacavityLock lynch, he's playing markedly differently from when I saw him as scum, and I haven't seen a semblance of a case against him. Corvuus is painfully obv town. I'm not 110% sold on Jazz, but she definitely seems at least townish, and I'd be real hesitant to lynch her unless something major came up. That don't leave too many people.

Unofficial vote count

Qwints (2) <- Apothecary, MacavityLock
LLamaFluff (2) <- Elmo, Qwints
MacavityLock <- LLamaFluff
Not voting: Jazzmyn, Corvuus

We only need 3 votes on someone to lynch at deadline, so two wagons with two votes each does not really phase me. Literally only one person needs to be around before deadline to ensure some kind of lynch.

Specifically, the above only leaves qwints, Apothecary, and LlamaFluff. I haven't reread enough to look at linkages between them, but nothing really jumps out at me. I have actually reread a little and it makes Atlas (= Qwints) look more town, Zeppo (= Jazzmyn) look more town, SwmintyLost (= LlamaFluff) look scummy. So, yeah, I really like a LlamaLynch today, actually.

Cannot believe my shift on qwints, but whatever, Atlas was pretty town.

Mod

: I support a deadline extension, pretty please? Also, could you prod Jazz, and ensure she knows when the deadline is? Thanks.

[Elmo]

Jazz: Mhh. I should probably read more but meta usually works quite well for me.

Atlas' response around SC is pretty much non-existent, he just goes pushing Ythill a bit. The thing is, in that situation, either you just straight-out counterclaim or you have to hide your role such that the mafia can't pick up on it. Otherwise you get the worst of both worlds, you get NKed that night but without getting scum lynched that day. So I can't reeeally fault him for that if he is a doc. qwints' first post ("1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones.") seems pretty consistent with what I'd expect from a doc. Herp.

WHAT?!?

Major HoS: LlamaFluff

Well, I think another

FoS: LlamaFluff

is warranted anyway.

This makes me lol. He's stretching for reasons to be very obviously suspicious of LF, yea?

I will re-skim the ML thing tomorrow. /zzz

[Elmo]

Hm, Jazz.. ML went for Apoth over SC. And he's consistently pushed Apoth as possible scum for a while now. The problem with saying he's scummy for that is that we don't know Apoth's alignment yet. If Apoth was known town, I would weigh it a bit less but I'd see what you're getting at; as it is, Apoth is on your list of suspects. I've had something like that happen to me; I pushed hard for the lynch of person A, while being "meh" about person B, and person B was lynched as scum. Then people were suspicious of me for pushing someone else over person B; of course, person A turned out to be scum as well.

From my POV:
# Jazz says ML had a complete lack of interaction with SC
# ML says "complete" is wrong
# Jazz says the general point still stands

I don't see anything suspicious in either, really. ML's objection seems reasonable, and Jazz's initial attack doesn't look like deliberate mischaracterisation. I do think he's answered the general point in 939 before he brought up "complete". I can't find your (Jazz) response to that.

I am more than willing to listen to arguments against people, but I just don't see a whole lot in ML's interactions (or not) with SC that would indicate he's scum. Yes, if he were scum (and Apoth was town), that's probably what he'd do, but there doesn't seem to be a strong reason to believe he wouldn't do that as town. Maybe I'm biased since I already see him as townish, maybe I'm missing something in your argument, whatever; I don't see it. :\

I would also like people to seriously reexamine their view of Apoth. I have not heard any real explanation of why SC was definitely not bussing him, and yet everyone seems to have taken it for granted. My position was never that he should be cleared permanently, but should live a bit longer than he otherwise might. If you remove SC's interactions with him, you're left with someone who actually looks pretty freaking scummy, for example his mysterious turnaround on whether SC was suspicious.

[Elmo]

Above is mostly addressed to Jazzmyn.

To Corvuus, my experience is that it's far easier to look pro-town when you're bussing someone.

[Elmo]

Hmm. 988 is real interesting. Certainly (assuming the reread checks out, and I think it will) I get the case against him, now, and I'm definitely wavering on him.. I asked ML a variant of this a while back, but I guess it bears asking again:

ML, why were you markedly

less

suspicious of SC than virtually everyone else was?

[Elmo]

Wow. I still have zero motivation. I feel like picking a name out of a hat.

# The thing with ML is he's not playing like he did in that other game. But there, there was a special mechanic, town didn't know they were town, so at the time I wrote off a bunch of his play that I'd normally have found scummy. It's possible he was only doing it there because he felt he could get away with it. Dunno.
# I remember being perturbed by a bunch of stuff Jazz posted but haven't reread it yet. Obv interested in what ML has to say.
# I still think the Cephrir wagon begged for scum to jump on somewhere. The problem is that I thought the whole thing was bad, so it's hard to figure out where people are just being opportunistic.
# TBQH I'd be real interested in saying hi to Apoth's replacement.
# What are we doing about claims? Apoth claimed townie, but we can't wait until near deadline for the others, and it seems whacky to have four people all claim without massclaiming. Might be optimal, but it's weird.
# Actually, considering we're in LyLo tomorrow with a mislynch, what do people think of a massclaim now? It seems a bit early, but tomorrow might be a bit late, if you see what I mean.

[Elmo]

Oh, I missed that I was assuming three scum. I have to stop doing that, worst case is not the only case. Although I think if there are only two scum total, we have a pretty good shot anyway, so maybe it's worth the assumption.

Hmm. qwints, how many scum do you think there are?

[Elmo]

[Elmo]

Just felt like it.
I should be clear, I do not actually advocate massclaim now, I just want to hear if anyone has an opinion.

[Elmo]

Hilariously, the most natural interpretation of his second sentence ("I thought that a doctor claim was a stupid one that would get a really quick lynch") in the drunk post is that he disapproves of qwints' fakeclaim choice.

"Am I on the same wagon as a scumbag?" is an interesting question to ask, actually.

[Elmo]

I should point out that other third party roles like lyncher / survivor are possible, not just SK. I really cannot see any persuasive reason for acting differently to a single mafia group, though; the odds of a second scum killing group (SK, mafia) not killing in two nights is low.

[Elmo]

Aopth was town. Excellent.

Hi.

Atlas was pretty townish though :\

[Elmo]

Curious what you think of Macavity.

[Elmo]

Vanilla.

I have not the faintest idea why we're talking about a SK. What happened to the kills?
Macavity, do you think LF is a good lynch today?

[Elmo]

Okay, I now get why LF is talking about a SK from his stated point of view. The question about the kills remains, though, I don't see why a SK would have no-killed or made kills that have all been blocked hitherto.

[Elmo]

Um, hi. I'm not speedhammering, whatever that means. I still don't think there's a SK, and I think the most likely scenario is LF being mafia with someone. Personally, I really want to do this slowly, though, I've had bad experiences going too fast in endgame before.

I'm pretty nervous about Illumina-Mafia turning up and hammering ML-town, but not really any more than standard probably-LyLo-jitters... I have difficulty seeing anything other than LF + ML mafia, really. I don't know. Guess we'll find out.

[Elmo]

Also. Corvuus, I have

no idea

what you're trying to do. Seriously.. what am I meant to be doing at this point? Why the hell are you convinced there's a SK, or LF is really a survivor?

You, me, Illumina vote and kill Elmo-ML (let's do ML first) as the scum team. The fact that they are even asking each other things in post is enough for me to accept them as team scum now.

In particular, WTF?

[Elmo]

Claiming SK is not remotely good play for any alignment, I think. The scenario that seems most likely is that he's a townie who believes there's a SK and two mafia and has a Masterful Plan involving a fakeclaim and crosskills. Which

never turns out well

. Not least because there is

no good reason

to believe a SK exists, which means we have some ridiculous overcomplicated situation instead of, you know, hunting the scum, as well as the fact that right now

no-one

has any idea what you're doing or what you want to happen. And apparently you've totally set your sights on me being scum and would lynch me tomorrow, for reasons totally passing understanding. Grate.

Answering my questions would be a good start;

why do you believe there is a SK

? Why do you think LF is not scum? What do you intend to happen next? Do you not get that from my point of view, you look pretty nuts?

For those keeping track at home, if we've got two mafia left and no SK, we can eliminate the pairings:
Corvuus - Elmo (Elmo hammers ML)
Corvuus - Illumina (Illumina hammers ML)
Elmo - Illumina (Either hammers ML)
Elmo - LLamaFluff (Elmo hammers ML)
Illumina - LLamaFluff (Illumina hammers ML)

The mafia pairs that work are:
Corvuus - LLamaFluff
Corvuus - MacavityLock
Elmo - MacavityLock
Illumina - MacavityLock
LLamaFluff - MacavityLock

I have absolutely no reason to believe a SK exists, and I'm treating it as a red herring until someone gives me a decent reason to believe so. (I am

just waiting

for someone to accuse me of being the SK for stating the obvious.) Could everyone please clearly state whether they think a SK exists or not, and why?

[Elmo]

Answering my questions would be a good start; why do you believe there is a SK? Why do you think LF is not scum?

This, again. Are you even reading my posts at this point?

[Elmo]

Elmo: are you asking me?

Yes.

I've already stated what I want to say.

But you haven't answered my questions.

then again, I am claiming to be one so either that trumps all, or you think there is no SK

This. I'm pretty sure you're not mafia, and I don't think there is a SK, so you're town, like I said.

(or perhaps, you are the SK since in your previous post Elmo, you ask/wait for someone to say you are a SK and you are mad at me for claiming first?)

No. I'm not a SK; I was remarking on something I've seen happen before. Whenever anyone brings up a possibility like a lyncher, jester, cult, etc, the first person to point out the unlikeliness of them is the first to be accused of e.g. the cult recruiter.

I do find it interesting that both ML and Elmo are parroting the same ideas/words and such. I.e. you say I am lying about being a SK... but that I should be lynched and that LF and I are scumbuddies.

I've said the direct opposite! I've said you're a lying townie and the scum are ML+LF in like my last two posts! You are the last person I want to lynch and have been since like day 1; READ MY POSTS

Seriously, you seem certain Illumina is town with the strength you're convinced I'm scum. Maybe you want to ask them whether what you're doing is a good idea? That considering LF was recently nominated for the "best fake claim" scummie and single-handedly won a large game for it, you might want to think

just a little

about the possibility of him lying here? Do you not see that if LF is mafia, his claim is perfect play, because of what you're doing

right now

?

Corvuus, please fake claim the people who you've tried to kill, being a fake SK. (I can't believe I'm doing this...)

[Elmo]

You, me, Illumina vote and kill Elmo-ML (let's do ML first) as the scum team. The fact that they are even asking each other things in post is enough for me to accept them as team scum now.

Because this. From my point of view, we lynch ML (mafia), Illumina dies tonight (town), then you vote me tomorrow and LF hammers. If you're not convinced I'm scum of some kind - first it was SK, now mafia - then I've got confused by this claim thing, which is a good part of the reason I dislike it; it's hard as heck to know what you really mean. (If that is in fact the case, my only real hope is for me, Illumina and ML to lynch LF today. I'd probably be up for that too, actually.)

Also because slowly does it. I don't want to drag it out to death, but I intend to get off my ass and go back through the game thoroughly before voting in LyLo. Like I said, I'm having real difficulty seeing anything other than LF + ML.. I don't think I am, but I want to make sure I'm not missing something.

[Elmo]

I want you to realise that blindly accepting LF's claim without even thinking about it is really freaking stupid. Like I've said repeatedly.

I have also said that I won't quicklynch you. So either you don't believe me or you think lynching LF is better than ML.

I never said you were SK. I said you were scum by process of elimination, assuming LF is neutral,

The latter quote is a good example of your stance, which seems to mean I am basically doomed tomorrow if you're still alive; you've already arbitrarily decided I am scum because LF isn't, and that's that. From my point of view, I am basically forced to either lynch LF today or talk you round with respect to LF before lynching ML. I've repeatedly told you to

talk to Illumina

, someone you see as town, and you don't seem to be at all interested in even that; you should

definitely

do that before we lynch ML at minimum.

Can you not put yourself in my shoes for two minutes, yea?

[Elmo]

I am not calling you stupid, I said a particular course of action is stupid. Smart people sometimes do dumb things. The most common, as in this case, is a failure to actually examine all reasonable possibilities. I have still not heard one single reason why LF is unlikely to be lying. I don't think you've even seriously analysed the possibility at this point.

The fact is, I actually trust Illumina and Elmo LESS now than before since your 'hesitation', waiting/arguments don't make sense.

What specifically does not make sense about what either of us has said?

Illumina: I don't understand your position and I actually trust Elmo MORE than you now since your position and actions only make sense if you are scumbuddies with ML.

I absolutely disagree. Obviously, if Illumina is scum with ML, then I must be town, so at least one townie is disagreeing with you somewhere.

You don't know i will be alive tomorrow (unless you are scum and have already planned! wee!) and I've already told you that i won't quicklynch, etc. etc. There is nothing left that I can say or guarantee you.

It doesn't matter that you won't quick-lynch me, it matters that you will probably end up voting me over LF. They are essentially equivalent; town loses either way.
If I'm right about LF being scum and you being town, it is intensely obvious that he would not want to kill off a townie that believes he is not scum, and Illumina looks more town than me due to SC's interactions with him. If you put yourself in LF-mafia's position, the correct play is obvious. That's why I think it will happen; I never said I knew for sure, but I rate it very very likely if I'm right about alignments.

if you think I am town and ML is either scum/town (but not neutral since you don't believe his claim?)

ML hasn't claimed neutral. LF did. I currently believe ML is mafia with LF and you are town, as I've repeatedly said.

Unless you are going to convince me that ML is not scum or that somehow LF is scummier than ML, there is NOTHING left for me to say or to talk to any of you (illumina, elmo, etc.).

No, your opinion of LF being less likely to be scum than me or Illumina is very important, and what I've been talking about for most of the day by this point.
It is very simple. If Corvuus is convinced LF is not mafia, and LF is mafia, then we almost certainly lose unless we lynch LF today. That's it. I believe LF is fakeclaiming scum. So from my point of view, either we have to lynch LF today or Corvuus has to reconsider, or we lose. Do you follow thus far? Am I wrong?

Another reason why I'm "waiting" is that my reads are based on 'general gut' - I want to reread back through the whole game, think about it a bit, because we're in LyLo. At minimum, I've thought ML was likely town for a fair chunk of the game; I think I was probably wrong (and meta indicates I made a similar mistake before) but it means I'm somewhat more cautious in LyLo. Also, the last time I was in LyLo, I was very very hasty and pretty much threw the game away, so I'm probably being overly conservative here; I don't care. :J

Illumina, am I just going nuts with respect to Corvuus? It looks like LF has thrown some kind of magic pixie dust at him and now he's gone all

@ @

.

I think I have something interesting, but I want to think about it a bit more before I say it. Thinking about it, I would be

extremely

interested to hear ML's case against LF. :J

:J is my smiley of choice for this overly post. *nods*

[Elmo]

Did i say I will believe LF over anything and everything? no. You say this and YES this makes me think you are scum.

You can hate me for 'risking' the game on something as stupid as believing LF neutral survivor claim but I've already done it

You haven't explicitly stated it - and I've never said you have - but it certainly looks like you will very probably end up voting for me tomorrow in the situation I described. You are very definitely convinced that LF is a survivor, and I don't see why my perception of you is unreasonable.

You say you believe LF is scum but have you at any point said "why" except that he may be fakeclaiming? How can you convince me if you have no case on LF except that his claim doesn't make sense and that he could be lying?

You've got it backwards; I am not arguing you should see him as scum. I am saying, repeatedly, that there is no good reason to see him as a real survivor. From my point of view, your opinion of LF's alignment should be "I don't know" based on the survivor claim alone. But it's not; you've said that you believe his survivor claim, and that needs to be dealt with before anything else. There is no good reason to believe him since it makes perfect sense for him to be lying. But I still have no idea why you believe him, which makes it impossible to argue against it. This is why I've been asking you why you believe him for eleventysix pages and I still haven't gotten an answer.

[Elmo]

And if there is some reason you believe him besides just claiming, like there's some facet of his play that makes far more sense for a survivor than a mafioso, then I've missed that, and I can't remember you saying anything like that. I am quite literally still guessing at why you believe him; I have no idea. None.

It should be fairly obvious why I'm asking ML for his case on LF; I want him to choose between self-preservation and bussing his buddy. Him self-hammering now and LF killing Illumina would probably be winning, yes. He'll probably be less likely to do it now you've said that, but it's perfectly good play.

I have answered all (or most?) of your questions, but I can't remember you answering any of mine. You haven't actually said what's wrong with my position other than "OMG ML MUST BE SCUM HAMMAH HAMMAH" which misses the entirety of my point, even beyond me wanting to take it slowly today.

[Elmo]

I think based on the power roles we have two mafia left. I've thought you were town for most of the game; the SK claim makes no sense as any alignment, so I've tossed it out as null. From my point of view, either you're scum or MacavityLock is scum with one of Illumina or LLamaFluff. Given I think you're town, I think ML is scum and need to look for his buddy. Illumina's play seems pretty townish, and SC's interactions with Apoth are a point in his favour; I've thought LF was sketchy through the game, voting him most(?) of yesterday. So it's mostly the culmination of reads plus process of elimination; my experience is that while it's not uncommon for people to avoid suspicion, it's really hard to look more townish than a real townie. I am leaning towards Illumina being town and LF being scum; that pairing seems to make the most sense right now.

In terms of evidence against LF/ML, there's probably a fair amount, but I'd have to go back through the game, which I haven't done yet. I'm hella lazy this game, but we already knew that. I think that should answer all your questions. (I haven't said survivor isn't possible, I've stated my views on LF/ML before, I don't know what you mean about LF talking to me, I've said why I asked ML, I haven't said ML is certain scum, yadda yadda.)

[Elmo]

The thought has occurred.

[Elmo]

I was hoping that wouldn't happen. Blah. Illumina, what do you think of

everyone

? What do you think of voting LF over ML? I'm prolly gonna do my reread, but my "thing" with Corvuus is on my mind; I think it still applies to you, less so. I dunno.
ML should probably switch vote to LF since I'm not voting Corvuus today and I doubt Illumina is. If neither of those two are scum then we're pretty much hosed anyway so :V

p.s. Mod, the two days were over the weekend with five alive :\ but w/e

[Elmo]

Why LF over ML, briefly? My thing with Corv is we have to lynch LF today if LF's scum.

[Elmo]

^ it appears that, etc etc. You know what I mean.

[Elmo]

Off the top of my head, I think it's pretty weird that you named MacLock your top suspect early day 2 for pushing on Apothacary, yet you've only now (when he's essentially as good as dead, today or tomorrow) posted that analysis, which coulda been done at any point since then. And about half of it looks like you've regurgitated Jazzmyn's case.

Moreso, I don't get why you'd make that post as a survivor. Or why you unvoted earlier today. You're supposed to be apathetic as to who wins. Hrm.

If you're not ML's buddy, who is?

[Elmo]

(blinks) Wait. It's early for me, so perhaps this isn't quite right, but I think if that's true, then we can eliminate more pairs:
Corvuus - LLamaFluff
Corvuus - MacavityLock

Elmo - MacavityLock

Illumina - MacavityLock

LLamaFluff - MacavityLock

I didn't (don't) believe you're a survivor, so I forgot to think about that. So what, me and Illumina are basically confirmed not 3-strong mafia at this point? I'm pretty sure if I was part of a living mafia pair that didn't include you, I'd believe you and take the win, or at least move that way; it's probably not hard to BS a vote on Corvuus. Wow, I completely failed to realise that, am I missing something? Corvuus? LF even agrees with me on that.

o o

(For those keeping track at home, a consequence is that if ML is lynched as mafia today, both me and Illumina are confirmed not-mafia. If you believe there's no SK, we're confirmed town.)

That actually makes it relatively easy. The lack of kills very clearly indicate the lack of a SK to me. So for you to be telling the truth, either there has to be 2-strong mafia vs. doc+tracker+watcher, which is pretty much horribly imbalanced, or there were 3 mafia to start out with and {Corvuus, MacavityLock} are the living mafia pair. Right?

I'm just failing to see what LF's play is tomorrow at this point. You'd have to (for example) talk Corvuus into thinking I'm an SK, but that makes no sense, since you could just vote Corvuus and take the win if you believed that. That is even before the lack of kills and the fact {Me, Illumina} play doesn't make a lotta sense as SK. I'm convinced there's some kinda angle I'm not seeing.

So hypothetically, if we lynched ML as mafia today, Illumina died as townie tonight, what would you think/do tomorrow, LF? If I died as townie? You can pretty much vote for anyone and instawin, no?

Mod

: Can we has extension? We're in the middle of Marathon Weekend right now and a bunch of people seem busy anyway

[Elmo]

It's like an hour until deadline. Is it extended or not? :\

[Elmo]

Aright, cool. We'll see what 24 hours brings.

[Elmo]

FWIW, LF's argument tomorrow (assuming we lynch ML mafia) is probably that a kill happened so there must be a SK because from his stated point of view we killed all the mafia. But that's insane; we've had one and exactly one kill each and every night. Either I'm missing something or this is a pretty dubious gambit.

TBH, Corvuus may not even show in 24 hours and the other two are heavy lurking for tactical reasons. So I'm thinking one of me / Illumina ends up hammering ML. I'm really interested what people have to say about my 1158, though. I'm also curious what Illumina has to say about LF.. I'd be interested to know roughly why you suspect him. Maybe you already said and I'm forgetting, but I remember asking it and don't remember a response. I think I spelt out why I think he's scum before.

One real interesting thing is that I have no motive whatsoever to do any of this business with LF as a SK and many motives not to as a SK, I think. Huh.

ML should still be voting LF at this point. He's been spamming up his other games while lurking like anything right now. Speaking of that,

Mod

: Can you prod ML? His last post was a week ago. Thanks <3

[Elmo]

Feel free to comment on anything relevant and risk exposing your partner.

[Elmo]

The last day wasn't lack of activity from me, something in RL came up and I couldn't get online to hammer ML in time. Erk. It was really unlikely and unexpected though, I'd do the same again.. town probably shoulda won, imo. I don't think I was particularly inactive over the game thought I was fine for all of it really. Maybe I shoulda finished second-guessing myself with ML earlier but I ended up at the right answer (shrug)

I think I've said pretty much everything worthwhile in-game already, I think.. I didn't like some of the deadlines, it seemed like people were away/busy/scum lurking and deadlines were placed because of the resultant lack of posting, when they wouldn't actually increase the pace of the game and actually detracted from it. Maybe I'm biased because I don't mind long games, I don't know.

Anyway gg, say anything you want to me but I guess most things I've already said

[Elmo]

In BSG everyone was lethargic and uninterested. I actually screwed up my read in that game because I mixed you and andersonw together in my mind, kept getting inconsistent reads, which didn't help. I thought that game you had the typical scum attitude of doing the bare minimum to not look suspicious, and you were more into it. TBH I kept second-guessing myself because of the circumstances of the game, turns out it was not a case of "different behaviour, different alignment" but "different circumstances, different behaviour, same alignment" if that makes sense. You actually don't look that different when I thought about it, but the circumstances obscured it, plus the fact I've never played with you as town iirc.

I've left hammering people until near deadline in a huge number of games and this has never happened as far as I can remember (then again I don't think I've lived this long before), something came up really unexpectedly :[ Before that, I didn't hammer you because we were thinking along pretty much the same lines; despite the fact it makes absolutely no sense, Corvuus seemed fairly convinced that LF really was a survivor and had excellent chances of buying me as your buddy, especially given my stated opinion of you previously. I don't know if LF wins tomorrow really, only Corvuus can answer that. I would have preferred to kill him today though; the whole idea was to get me and Illumina voting him at which point we instawin because you either hammer him and we lynch you tomorrow, or you

don't

hammer him and we 100% know you were paired when we lynch you today. I didn't realise the thing with LF being a survivor until when I posted it, and I guess there's no reason that Corvuus would necessarily buy into that really..? Dunno.

ROFL @ SK paranoia. That was bizarre, I don't know what you people are smoking =D

It's kind of pissy since we actually did 90% of what was needed to win, even given the lack of help from power roles and the dumb mislynches :\ I dunno, I don't feel like I did much wrong beyond not fingering ML earlier.. I was always sorta half-and-half about him, I figured Jazz would talk me round of I was wrong (which she did) so I guess I was less investigative that I could have been xD

[Elmo]

I'd have to agree about the power roles being a bit town slanted, that was one of the reasons I was reticent to believe qwints. I figured maybe you had a ninja or something extra, but that's kind of a rare role.

I think it's not such a hard sell if you consider that Corv already believes you and isn't likely (going off memory here) to ask those kind of questions since he believed there was a SK already, even though the same argument about the kills applies. Objectively speaking it's ridiculous but mafia is never objective (objectively speaking the survivor claim is fishy as hell, but he bought that, so..)

[Elmo]

Yeah, I really liked the bulletproof survivor, I've considered using something similar in a game myself. I have no idea why you retracted it tbh, it was a good twist on it, since actually I'd have put you high on the list for a kill n1 if I were mafia. If I were in Corv's shoes a question in my mind would be why you weren't dead yet.

The fact is that a SK is not necessarily shooting n3 for fear of being endgamed, as well. So there's only two nights worth of missing kills. I think selling a OGML target on n1 is not unreasonable since I actually mistook him for a counterclaiming doc on day 1 (was I right about the reasoning for the kill btw? If you didn't think he was doc, it looks like a bad kill) so you've really only got n2 to sell. I can't remember the details, but it's not

too

far from being viable, and add the fact Corvuus is already heavily biased towards you, I think it's doable. It's certainly something I think is worth avoiding totally by trying to lynch you d4.

This is before what I posted near the end. That throws a spanner in the works, but if you hadn't pointed that out, then I don't think anyone would have noticed, actually.

I am well surprised you got a power role read off Primate (Ythill not so much I guess). WP there. =O

[Elmo]

I think it's bad simply because he's the obvious doc protect. I'm still pretty staggered that qwints didn't protect him, and that actually detracted significantly from his claim. The only reason not to protect him is if you're playing WIFOM games with the scum, and that's rarely a good idea imo. I just think 90%+ of docs are going to protect him, and the last thing you need at that point is a missed kill.

I don't think Primate did the pictures for that reason.. he's very heavily towards not giving reasons (sometimes even content) for what he does. the Ythill thing I agree, I saw the twilight post and went argh, I've run up yet another power role (I thought MM was doc due to OGML). I missed the one in his first post (or didn't think it was a tell, can't remember), I guess that's just another reason not to talk about power roles like that as town.

[Elmo]

The Ceph lynch is arguable (I don't think it does, personally; but if it does, not very much) but I honestly find it harder to come up with a realistic situation other than something like a claimed cop that pretty much demands a protect. He's been single-handedly responsible for the lynch of the mafia RB on day 1; perhaps that's slightly overstated, but in my view he would pretty much have to claim scum for me to protect someone else.

I guess I just don't see why Jazz is more likely to be town, especially compared to OGML. Unless I'm much mistaken, the long insightful analysis posts happen regardless of alignment, and it's not like she'd pushed for scum death at that point.

I don't mean this to come across as critical FWIW. I just like to talk a lot with people post-game since I think it's the best way to improve.

[Elmo]

You looking for a serious response to that post?

[Elmo]

Well, we lost because no-one hammered at deadline, that's not directly anyone's fault. I don't actually know what else I could have done, given it might have happened at any point. I think based on what you said post-game, if I'd been around to hammer, we probably would have won tomorrow, so I don't think you're responsible for it. That said, all the stuff about claiming SK and claiming to believe LF for his vote was just unnecessary; we probably would have had this wrapped up in a week if you said "I think LF and ML are mafia, more sure about ML" and left it at that. It wasn't a lack of being convincing, really.

At least in my perception, you said repeatedly that you believed LF's claim and only slightly relented in order to get me to hammer. The problem is that because you've repeatedly lied, I have no idea what to think; it seemed likely that you really still believed him and were lying merely to get ML lynched. I don't think you ever said that you didn't believe him or thought he was scum.

I didn't ever want to talk about a SK, I said I was convinced there wasn't one and unless someone gave me a good reason, I'd ignore it. The reason I didn't hammer ML immediately was what I said, repeatedly: if you believed LF, which you said you did, then lynching ML is a town loss, because you'll hammer whichever townie is alive tomorrow. And you're actually pretty lucky about claiming SK, I think a majority of people on this site would have lynched you purely for that.

Claiming SK is not remotely good play for any alignment, I think. The scenario that seems most likely is that he's a townie who believes there's a SK and two mafia and has a Masterful Plan involving a fakeclaim and crosskills. Which

never turns out well

. Not least because there is

no good reason

to believe a SK exists, which means we have some ridiculous overcomplicated situation instead of, you know, hunting the scum, as well as the fact that right now

no-one

has any idea what you're doing or what you want to happen. And apparently you've totally set your sights on me being scum and would lynch me tomorrow, for reasons totally passing understanding. Grate.

TBH this, really, it's just yet another example of why townies should

never

lie and need to be as clear as possible about what they think.

p.s. I don't hate you; I never take these games personally, and like I said, smart people sometimes do dumb things under stress and uncertainty

[Elmo]

There are more quotes I could reference but it starts with my fakeclaim and, when you ask me why I did it, I didn't say "why" since I thought it was obvious (I already said it was a hat game. I.e. I'm not a SK, but I will claim SK just in the off chance there are 2 scum and a SK (LF).)

I don't think anyone apart from you has the faintest idea what a "hat game" is.

I didn't stand a chance of figuring out why you claimed SK, because your reason for doing so is based around one existing when I've been pointing out that there's no reason to believe one exists for

days

. It makes no sense, even post-game.

As for why I said I believed LF... it is because you guys refused to hammer ML and you kept attacking LF and wanted LF as today's lynch, then I had to say I believe him because I wanted ML as the day's lynch since LF's alignment would be known 'tomorrow' and in the off chance he was SK (with 2 scum) it would be town's optimal play/best chance at winning (hoping for Crosskills).

No, you didn't have to. You

don't need LF's vote

. In fact, you don't even need ML lynched today, but even assuming you do, the best way is to talk us into lynching him. Seriously, what is LF's play if you say you disbelieve him and say he's public enemy #1? Nothing. He has nothing. It

doesn't matter

.

And I can't even now understand how night actions resolve it. LF's argument tomorrow is very simple, there was 2 mafia, 1 SK. The nightkill or lack thereof doesn't tell us anything. This is even after the incredibly unlikeliness of a SK in the first place.

By claiming SK, I ensured that either I or LF would be the NK (i.e. 2 scum and SK, scum have to assume it is either me or LF). If neither of those options happened, then LF is scum. etc. etc.

No, you didn't ensure that, and even if you did, it doesn't help us at all. :/

The more you argued that LF was the day's lynch over ML, the more I would defend/say I believe LF in order to get ML lynched.

This is even at the point where you believe whole-heartedly he's scum. WHY would you defend someone you stongly suspect of being scum?

I don't think I ever said I was set on lynching LF; the only thing I said was that if you were convinced about LF, then we had to lynch him today. And you kept giving that impression. I also didn't say that you'd instantly vote in LyLo, merely that you'd end up voting for me over LF. Given

what you'd said

, that seems reasonable to me, and as far as I can tell even the scum agree with that. I actually intended to reread and then probably vote for whichever of ML or LF seemed scummier, but I woulda been happy to lynch ML.

Do you get what the correct play for you was at this point?

[Elmo]

Also, you're repeatedly saying that you HAD TO get ML lynched today. No.. really, you didn't, if there's some good argument about why he's a better lynch than LF, just calmly point out why that is. If we're town, we should be listening. Trying to browbeat me into doing what you want was a really bad idea. Most people would just have torn into you right about there, I think. In any respect, it's a team game, we should be trying to figure out the best play together rather than one person trying to impose some course of action. That's another thing that almost never ends well.