Open 99: Mayo Clinic (Game Over!) before 703

[Plum]

What are we agreeing to? That by not claiming for a few night, we're likely to keep night deaths low? That makes sense if I'm reading it right.

On a side note, who's for lynching Plum if he doesn't say something soon?

Hey, I'm a she. Please give me a break for a second, game just started today, and late ending school day + late after school program = I'm just reading this now. Am absolutely not lurking.

FOS GnKoichi

, seriously, lurker lynch for less than one day of lurking when I haven't been on the site yet today = WTH? I'm with Charter's reaction there. Not sure how close we are to the random stage and would like to hear more about this, hence FOS and not vote, for now.

On claiming discussion: I'm with Nameless that

Reasoned scumhunting > statistics, IMHO.

Vig claiming might have merit, as WALL-E's scenario suggests. 1/4 chance isn't bad, but it may lead to Doc overexposure and letting the scum kill off the Docs easily, as also discussed. In all honesty, I'm fairly unfamiliar with deducing game-breaking strategies, so I don't have much more to add at this juncture. My thoughts are this: we scumhunt. Once we get serious and close to lynch we might want to discuss again the feasability of claiming or ordering protection. For now, I would advocate basic strong scumhunting.

[Plum]

GnKoichi: As has been detailed, No Lynch is not a very viable plan in this case and in general is rarely a good idea. Would go into more detail, but that's already been done pleanty, no? The fact that you suggested it, though, doesn't make me less suspicious of you.

On the subject of how many NKs will go through all the Doc protects, to address GnK's concerns: In theory something less than two, if I'm doing the math right: Whoever kills is going to have just under a 1/2 chace of the kill going through. That doesn't account much for overlap of either kills or protects, though. To be honest, I'm not sure how the patterns are more likely to fall out; maybe after Night 1 I'll have a better picture of that. It should be noted that in the Open Setup Discussion/Nomination thread someone felt that a lot of no kills might happen and Adel, the creator of this setup, replied that 'it's hard to die at the Mayo Clinic'. I'm going to reserve judgement on that for now. I'm very doubtful about GnKoichi saying that Charter was intentionally trying to mislead us when he said

I think it might be very likely we go a few nights with no kills without the massclaim, which seems like pushing the game towards nightless, which is much better for the town.

Others, before the game even started, expressed similar thoughts. Doesn't mean it will fall out like that, but does indicate that it's probably not an unreasonable thought. Hence I don't think Charter was trying to inentionally mislead town. In either case, we will go to night sometime, and everyone will do what they do, whether they think many kills will go through or not, and it will become clear fairly quickly whether or not No-Kills will be likely. If he was wrong or misleading, it will become clear quickly and without much change in gameplay. What would Charter accomplish by intentionally misleading the town about this? It won't stop anyone from using whatever powers they have to their best advantage as they see it.

Wall-E: Newb bahavior =/= town =/= scum; I don't consider myself here to be just harrassing the newb. I'm somewhat suspicious of him as above but have decided to reserve judgement a bit. Having said that, most of the things I'm questioning are his stuff, simply because they do, basically, look potentially scummy.

We've talked the setup to death, and it's time to move on.

Agreed.

[Plum]

Wall-E: Am not pissed with you. However, am curious as to the Charter vote. I.e. - on reread you don't seem to say anything specifically explaining what you find suspicious in Charter's actions. "Pnned by the newbie". That's great:

could you be more specific?

Charter has an opinion on how many NKs are likely to go through. It doesn't seem to be an unreasonable thought, as I stated and backed up above. Statistically, if everything were done randomly, I'd say yes, slightly less than two kills per night. Granted information the town gains through discussion today + extreme WIFOM about who to protect/kill on the part of, well, everyone, that could very well be off the mark. While I appreciate TM's charts in abstract, if only because they look a lot like my own thought process scribbles, it doesn't take informed decision-making into account much. As you have said, though, for our best guess Day 1, math's probably our best bet. Fine, so Charter has a less mathematical but probably not invalid - gut? - thought on how many NKs will go through. GnK argues that he's intentionally trying to mislead the town. As above, I think that a., it's not an unreasonable thought, and b., everyone will try to use their powers to their faction's best advantage tonight whether they think lots of kills will happen or not. So - what point on Charter has GnK made that makes you want to vote him?

That is - what's your thought process in determining that Chater is, in your opinion, scum??? I've seen little out of you about that.

FOS: Wall-E

. Nameless asked you, legitimately, to explain your vote. You unhelpfully said that you think Charter's scum. That's nice. Now do the helpful thing that Nameless actually asked you to do in the first place and tell us why you think Charter is scummy, thanks.

Kiro - on reread, which I didn't have much time for yesterday, the no-protect approach is very

bad

. As stated, gives the scum a clear shot. Sure, it gives the Vigs a clear shot, too, but you have to remember that they're not infallible either. Risk - being at least two, not in the least inconceivably four townies down Day 2. Reward - chance at lead on scum if scum Doc protects and a Vig shoots the protected scum. Chance at not acidentially blocking a Vig hit on scum. Risk>reward here, as discussed above. I'm keeping my eyes on Kiro.

[Plum]

Wall-E: Call me stupid, but when you say 'omni', you're referring to whom? Nameless???

[Plum]

Joy. Lotsa stuff to plow through. Hopefully I'll come to some coherent suspicions tonight, else this will just be an overview and my consolidated thoughts will come later.

First glance reread:

The only way I felt Charter was being misleading was telling us not to worry about deaths at night. This is similar to Kiro asking us not to protect.

No. Not at all. Kiro directly suggested 'guys, don't use your Doc-protects because [insert plan that general consensus thinks will have a bad risk/reward ratio for the town]. Charter said 'I think we might go a while with no kills at night, which would help the town'. No suggestions for what we do at night that might put the town at a disadvantage. Might not necessarily be a correct thought, but it's not directed at making us change our behavior to our disadvantage. Looking at it now, it seems to be a general statement that leaving off massclaim might result in a positive situation for the town. Now unless you have strong feelings for why massclaim

will

benefit the town, and Charter was trying to mislead us in that way . . .

First off, you assume that all kills and protections are random. That's completely not true. IF ANYONE tomorrow says "I picked so and so because my dice told me to", I will consider you scum.

HYPOTHETICAL
Tonight comes, I have one Doc protect to use and two players at the top of my town list who are, for all intents and purposes equally town in my view, and therefore deserving of my protect. I tak the situation into account and WIFOM-muse to myself for a bit, but come to the conclusion that they're each about as likely to benefit from my protect. I flip a coin. Do you consider me scum?
/HYPOTHETICAL

And explaining why you'll consider GK scum if somebody ELSE claims they randomly protected.

First off, you assume that all kills and protections are random. That's completely not true. IF ANYONE tomorrow says "I picked so and so because my dice told me to", I will consider you scum.

Way to take things rediculously out of context? I was pretty clear that Charter meant he'd consider anyone using dice to determine protection scum, not that if anyone did he'd consider GnK scum. You agree to this eventually, I notice, though. Meh.

I have a habit of lying as town. Is charter actually a doc? Only time will tell.

Joyness and fluffy bunnies. [/sarcasm]

On a different note, Doc is default vanilla townie claim. I don't think anyone implying the game's version of vanilla is doing anything awful, and when known night actions are involved for hypotheticals it can get dicey trying to word things. I'm taking Chater's claim with a grain of salt, and it doesn't mean too much. It's like he soft-calimed vanilla by saying 'I'll be using my super-special-awesome non-existant vanilla town powers to what I feel is the town's best advantage tonight!' and someone asked 'wait, why are you telling us this Day 1?'. It's not any real info for anyone. Means nothing. The lying as town thing, as above, doesn't exactly give me a warm fuzzy feeling. But if he's town I'm hoping to goodness that he does it thoughtfully and only if/when he thinks it's the option that will bring town closer to winning the game. But if/when I see something questionable, I'll point it out.

I'll agree that Stef's posted but hasn't contributed too much useful stuff. Reread there on my part? Coming soon, if not now.

1-4: Random voting nonsense.
5: Agreeable stance on vig claim.
6: Infoless suspicions of GnK.
7: Decent case and vote on GnK.
8: Useless.
9: Good argument against no-lynch.
10: Odds discussion.
11-12: Short discussions against GnK and defense of the case.
13: States that he won't let GnK's scummy actions be given a pass due to newbie status. Fine.
14-15: Mostly useless.

One or two decent enough posts in there, but not a whole lot that's been too usefull - percentage there isn't great. I'd say 3/15 that really helped duscussion, though that's not to say all of the others were absolutely unwarranted.

On Wall-E's case: Am running out of brain capacity to analyze cases and want to do my own analysis of Charter soon. Perhaps tomorrow. As it's occurred to me that I agree with him/attack other's (in my warranted opinion) poor cases against him. Basically need to take my own look at Wall-E-Charter-KMD-GnK-Whatever dynamics. Hopefully that'll happen tomorrow.

But before I go: Wall-E, a lot of your case on Chater seems to be predicated on his search for a game-breaking strategy/musing on vig-claim potential. Which is all good and well, except that you seem to do some of that yourself.

Scenario: The vigs claim. We townie docs all divide our protects over them secretly and randomly (coinflips work), a doc dies that night, the vigs have a pool of 10, of which three are scum, to vig from amongst. The mafia doc is protecting one of those, so the odds are 2/9 to kill a mafia (since one of the scum will be invulnerable: addendum: there is the chance both vigs target the same player and beat the protect, but that's longshot territory). 2/9 odds are fairly good, imo.

I dunno. What says a math person? Anyone here a math person?
---------
EBWOP: 2/8 chance to hit a mafia (-1 dead town doc, -3 mafia, one of whom is near unkillable)

1/4 chance to hit mafia is pretty good. Better than 1/11, in a normal scenario with no vig claims.

There might be a gamebreaking strategy buried in this setup. I'm open to conjecture.

charter's 2nd post: Starts a huge debate over setup to avoid having to appear to be scumhunting.
. . .
charter's 5th post: Testing the waters on a vig claim wth?

You atate you're open to gamebreaking-strategy discussion and yourself muse in-thread about vig-claiming. What's the difference here?

[Plum]

"Paging Nurse Ratched. Nurse Ratched to the ER please. And bring an icepick."

Mirth, did you know I once played Dale Harding in my school's production of 'One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest'?

Now I do. Though I have no idea who Dale Harding is. Have not read that godawful book again since it was forced on my in highschool...anyways, carry on you lot, before I make good on that lobotomy threat.

And Wall-E: I'll check my opinion of your case soon, but good grief, not a really helpful refutation. You use something a supporting evidence that someone is scum. You do similar things yourself. As you acknowledge. It's not the fact that you're being a hypocrite I mind per se, but do you expect me to acknowledge those points on Charter as legit and not attack you for doing similar things?

Puta Puta agrees with me on this: Nameless' side of the banter felt fake.

Notice that Puta Puta was actually saing that

my

call for scumhunting sounded fake. Not 'Nameless' side of the banter'. Just clearing this up.

[Plum]

I see what Nameless is saying, but as I'm not voting anyone etc., I don't see the harm in giving an overview of my current thoughts. If anyone would like me to be more specific, please ask and I'll do my best to oblige.

Voting:

No one, as while I've seen suspicious behavior I've decent suspicions on a few people. Will be doing a read through (hopefully several, actually - Wall-E, thanks to you I have four tabs open ).

Suspicions:

GnKoichi for continuing to sccuse Charter of deliberately misleading town in stating that he thought that without massclaim the town night go a few nights without kills. As I've explained, I don't see that as an unreasonable though, and while math might indicate that about two will, we really don't know how much thread discussion will influence targets and would have to rely on WIFOM for that until after Night 1, when we might get a better idea. And in either case Charter didn't seem to be influencing others to change their actions (as opposed to Kiro's no-protect idea, which did and which I felt was mor scummy than what Charter said) except for possibly dissuading Vig claiming. Unless you're arguing legitimately that the Vigs should claim and have a good reason for it, I find the argument baseless and would like some comment as to why you keep citing it.

Wall-E: As much as I hate to say this, you happen to say a lot of baseless things in your cases. Puta Puta didn't say Nameless' side of whatever banter there was felt fake, he said that my call for more scumhunting and less setup cracking sounded a bit forced and fake. Not the same thing. Nameless voted Kiro for the no-protect idea (which you also questioned) and Chater didn't vote or even seem to strongly suspect Kiro. They certainly did not wagon Kiro together. You made a vote against Charter without having expressed too much suspicion of him to that point - attacking a baseless vote is scummy? Excuse me? You just said the vote was 'nearly baseless'. I'm sorry if it ends up connecting me to another player, but I don't refrain from questioning nearly baseless votes and will not call out another for questioning such a vote. I also did that. Why no suspicions of me? Ravenous defense I didn't see much of - Nameless questioned Charter during that period, too. Your last point I couldn't make much sense of. In either case, I've done my own analysis here, not just copied out Nameless' defense. Your backing up from the case after Nameless' defense is about a nulltell, though the 'ps sorry town for the small mistake' makes my gut twitch a bit. You also made an admitted 'nearly baseless vote on Charter' as above - which I'd also want to say null, as it appears it was some sort of move to get Charter to react, but at the same time votes for reactions can be handy cover for scum et cetera - needs little justification at the time of the actual vote, and reactions put under scummy interpretation can come out a lot of places. Lastly, the at-least-as-unhelpful-as-Chater's-claim-and-declaration-that-he-has-and-won't-be-afraid-to-lie-as-town: your hypocrisy. Let me make this clear: just because you give yourself leeway or whatever because

you

know you're not your enemy,

we

sure as heck don't, and just because you don't have the same standards in what you post, doesn't mean an attack on Charter for doing things similar to what you've done won't get called out. You may be biased in favor of yourself, but expecting the town to be (in some cases, that means acting in ways you call out as scummy) is rediculous and illogical and not helpful to the town. Dare I say stupid? In some cases, sure, hypocrisy as town may lead to an advantage for the town, just like in certain situations the same may be said of lying as town. I'll burn that bridge when I come to it, 'kay? For now I'll still call them out, or at least not apply a double standard regarding your behavior: why should I? About your

Tl;dr: Wall-E's case on Nameless is full of holes and predicated on Charter being scum, the case on whom is based at least partly on a double standard Wall-E applies to himself, i.e. if I accept them as legitimate I now have a new trove of legit points against Wall-E for doing very similar stuff, voted Charter before making a case to 'get reactions', which I find potentially scummy (i.e. in combonation with the other points I bring, it looks somewhat scummy).

I think I've worked myself over to a

Vote: Wall-E

. Still looking for a response from GnK on my first paragraph there.

[Plum]

Meh, you're right that it's not the most airtight case, but I stand by my suspicions. Just be careful about calling someone scum for building a case you disagree with, Plum. It's usually not such a hot lead.

I'm calling you scum because you made a case that not only did I disagree with, but which contained scummy logic (Nameless' questioning you on your 'nearly baseless' vote on Charter = out and out defense? It looked to me more like argument asking for explaination of a baseless-looking vote) and more than one outright fallacy. Your other case contained a hypocritical accusation; while you may be fine with your own hypocrisy, I don't know why you expect the town to hold the same double standard and consider them scumtell on Charter but not on you: anti-town behavior there. I don't just disagree with your cases. I disagree with your use of cases which are hypocritical in a way that is unhelpful to the town, contain multiple out-and-out fallacies, and attack players for questioning scummy behavior. I think it's as hot a lead as I have right now.

GnK: Actually, I see where you're coming from there. Don't agree that he was trying deliberately to mislead the town, but you're right: he doesn't really refute you well, though he could have. I may have not noticed that due to the fact that I kept getting annoyed at your continued accusation that he was trying to mislead the town etc. and posting my thoughts on why that accusation was invalid. Which I still believe it is.

I haven't been misleading, you're pulling that out of your ass. If you think it was misleading, you are simply lying to try and lynch me for no reason. Anyone that thinks it is misleading is clearly trying to do the same. It was my thoughts or opinions on matter. I was stating what I thought was LIKELY to happen. I wasn't trying to convince anybody of anything by saying I think it's unlikely to have any deaths tonight, I was stating my OPINION on the matter. Mafia is not a logic puzzle that can be solved by just running equations and crunching numbers.

He did say something there. Not a whole whole lot, but he did explain that he wasn't trying to be misleading and that it was his opinion/thoughts/gut on what would happen, etc. But he did not acknowledge the numbers, though even with them I still don't think his opinion is absolutely invalid (again, we don't know which way the WIFOM will point, I've said this fifty times, we know the drill). But true enough his defenses/explainations of his position could and probably should be more thorough/less 'your stats are wrong and you have no proof'. Defense with history of lying is sort of unrelated (correct me, but wasn't he going on about why he softclaimed then claimed Doc?) - though he has focused more on it and less on a good clear paragraph on why his position is valid and accusations of him because of it aren't, and focus on it at all was generally unhelpful. You have a valid point there. Do you still think he was trying deliberately to mislead the town, though?Didn't seem you still think so, just wanted a bit of confirmation here.

[Plum]

I've copped to every flaw pointed out in my case. The case itself eventually deteriorated. Being wrong is a scumtell now?

By copped do you happen to mean 'admittted to'? Because you up and admitted to most if not all of my accusations (שתיקה כהודיה, finally quoting a Talmudic logic point here). Basically, you admitted that your case was 'not airtight' (it was much less than airtight) and didn't engage in a defense of any of the points I brought against you. Silence is equivalent to agreement, or, if you want to disagree, start telling me why my points are invalid. Don't say the case has deteriorated. It hasn't, not least because you've barely defended yourself. You were 'fine' with my suspicions, you said. Great, I'm just as up for lynching you as I was when I voted you.

Nameless' post full of quick quotes is decent, but should be looked at carefully. Basically, Wall-E, as I see it you did make an awful, scummy case and fiddled around with how seriously you took and pushed it. However, regarding OP's quick vote (I'll look at his overall behavior more closely tomorrow, as I have to go soon)

Orange: We really have too much quoting going on. The lurkers, yourself included, need to let their own ideas be heard. Even if you agree with someone else 100%, you should say it in your own words. That's just my take on it.

On quick scan, OP's made about 8 game posts, first four were nearly contentless, next was inconclusive and ambiguous, next quotes Nameless, throws in an emoticon and votes, next states little but that there's a case built on Wall-E already.

HOS: OP

[Plum]

unvote, vote GK

Calling this now, GK is scum and Wall-E is not.

I agree with Nameless that I'd like an explaination of this, and personally find votes without decent cases scummy. While I think I see where you

might

be coming from about GnK being scum regarding the placement of his vote (after Wall-E reached four and while his case is among the principle ones the town is discussing at the moment) - though I notice that it came after a post by Wall-E which was apparently so volatile (using a phrase from GnK) that the mod felt it would be appropriate to edit it. Will reserve judgement on both his vote and Charter's vote and call until I hear a bit from both of them.

On the other hand, I'm not sure how likely it is that Charter and Wall-E would have acted the way they have towards each other if they were scum. Yeah, that's slightly WIFOMy and not conclusive, but I personally don't see that sort of bussing if they were scum. Interesting note on the placement of Charter's votes, though, again would like to hear more about them before comment.

Lurker lynch? Don't think we should do that when we have decent discussion happening anyway. I see policy lurker lynches as not better than random lynches in most cases. Granted, some of the lurkers have acted moderately scummy. Also, setting up lynches/vig kills? This is the second time you've done that sort of thing (earlier you said 'If charter turns out to be scum, Kmd is likely a partner'). Furthermore, while Charter hasn't really explained his votes, I still don't fully see your case on Wall-E aside from 'he was defensive' and having said at one point that he'd started acting 'like [he isn't] even trying'. If you're voting him to L-2 with only that on him, I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on the case.

[Plum]

Just to let everyone know that there's a 25+ hour window between Friday evening and Saturday evening when I'm not on. This time of year that will probably mean you'll get a short-ish, early post Friday afternoon out of me and normal posting Saturday night.

Charter: Ah, so your vote falls back on your previous case plus gut? I personally don't like his logic about you 'misleading the town', so I see where you're coming from there, I guess. Yeah, you've made a case on him, though a 'see my previous vote and case which still stand' might have made me less apt to question.

My vote against Wall-E was meant as a warning. I still had a somewhat town read on him at that point.

Suddenly it made sense. I still believe Charter is scum, and now he had revealed his partner. He and Wall-E had set themselves up as against each other over the issue of, well, me, very early. They voted for each other to seal the deal. Why would scum vote for each other? But it probably looked like a safe bet back then, since I was a good candidate for our first Lynch. Then, Wall-E got a little sloppy in his Nameless argument, and drew a few votes. Ani's vote put Wall-E at L-2, so Charter pulled his vote, and tried to throw a quick vote at Ani (perhaps to scare the new player away from voting that way). Then I put my 'scare' vote on Wall-E, and Charter was forced to try to return the focus to me.

n the middle of that Charter tipped his hand.

It wasn't your actions that revealed you as scum. It was your partner's.

I'd really like to move the votes from Wall-E to Charter, but I'll accept taking Wall-E out because of my strong theory that they are scum buddies.

[T]here are scum reads on both of them independent of my idea that they are scum buddies.

Even if I don't like or accept your case on Charter, GnK, at least I know that and why you're suspicious of him. But your case on Wall-E seems to be 'Charter seems to be defending him/voting those who vote for him/taking his vote off him as the count climbs higher, plus I have a scum read on Charter'. But as your interpetation of Charter's recent votes are very subjective that I don't see them as by themselves being a valid argument for Wall-E being scum. You go from 'I have a town read on Wall-E and voted him to get him to make better posts and not get lynched' (WTH?) to 'Charter's votes make me think Wall-E is his scumbuddy' to 'I have a scum read on Wall-E'. What do you see scummy in Wall-E?

[Plum]

Plum: Clarification: I meant that there are other people who had a scum read on Wall-E before I made my argument, so it wouldn't be a stretch to find evidence against him if Charter flipped scum.

Good grief, GnK, but I want to hear your opinion about the cases on Wall-E to this point. If you don't think they're enough to warrant suspicion now, and had something of a town read on him despite them, I'd hate for you to come back Day 2 and say 'I was right/wrong about Charter, sure, but let's go back and see what Wall-E's done if you

haven't acknowledged any scumtells of his before hand

. You don't seem to have suspicions of Wall-E independent of Charter's votes, you seem to have the willingness to have an easy time 'finding evidence' against him if Chater flips scum. Your behavior here is rediculous. You seem to express contradictory feelings as to whether your suspicions of Wall-E are independent of Charter's actions or not. It seems to be 'no, unless I find it convenient to bring up actions of Wall-E's I hadn't commented on as being scummy at the time after Charter's lynch'. Furthermore, I still don't think your reasons for thinking Wall-E and Charter are a scumteam are legit.

Okay, how are we even still talking about this? This is not me twisting Charter's words. He is the one trying to make it clear now that Wall-E not being scum is not a hunch, but knowledge. Something that he knows, as in a fact. Not a strong feeling. Not a really good theory. HE is the one who says this. I just called him on it.

As was said before, this has only three implications:

1) He and Wall-E are scum, hence his "knowledge" of who is and isn't a scumbuddy.

2) He is lying, and this proves my point of how misleading he has been ALL GAME!

3) He has information he shouldn't have, making him a cheater (since he didn't get Mod killed for saying this, I assume he isn't).

Whatever you think about me, how is this not the easiest thing to vote for ever?

Why I think GK is scum and Wall-E is not? Just a feeling, obviously I don't know.

Hate to be the voice of reason here, but Charter calling his suspicions/lack thereof so strongly doesn't have to be because he already knows this and doesn't mean he's trying to mislead us into thinking he's got confirmation on that. The way you push this as an absolute declaration by Charter of his own scumminess is rediculous. These are obviously his suspicions. He's wording them strongly, and that just may be the way he does it and certainly is not a wrong way to do it, in my humble opinion. It ain't my way, but in this instance I can look at it and feel fine thinking 'all right, Charter suspects GnK and doesn't think he and Wall-E are scumbuddies' as opposed to 'Charter's saying this because he actually knows who the scumbuddies are because he's scum' or 'He doesn't know this but he's trying to mislead us by implying that he does'. Furthermore, Charter said he thinks

you

are scum and Wall-E isn't, so if he were scum saying this from knowledge, wouldn't he have just implyed

you

as his scumbuddy? Your argument falls to pieces, how fun.

I don't mean to be arrogant, but is there anything that would make me wrong here? Isn't this the strongest scum argument we've seen all game? EVERYONE! Please throw your votes to Charter! He has almost admitted to being scum. Wall-E is almost certainly his partner, but even if that's wrong, Charter is the best Lynch, by far. No matter what you think about me, if you can't find a counter to my argument, please do the right thing and VOTE FOR CHARTER! . . .
. . . HE ADMITTED TO BEING SCUM!

In my humble opinion, with the absolute craplogic that

has been countered

and calling for votes on him for it vehemantly and IN CAPITAL LETTERS . . . I lack a witty remark, sorry. No, not strongest scum argument we've seen all game. For goodness' sake, he implyed his own suspicions with strong terms, something we've seen in a different light with Wall-E etc. He did not admit to being scum. The way you keep pushing this rediculous accusation is by far closer to 'the stringest scum argument we've seen all game'.

Charter has done several dubious things but what you are actually pushing on him amounts to incredibly exaggerated semantics. I pointed this out nicely, and you repeat the craplogic louder. This, plus most of what Kiro argued in #330, makes me reasonably sure you're scum.

Quoted For Truth, friends.

I haven't seen anyone make a good argument against my Charter/Wall-E theory.

Your theory is based on interpretations that work only at a stretch anyway. My basic interpretation of Charter's vote is like Kiro's: Based on suspicions of OP's quick quote-and-vote of Wall-E, and perhaps partly a warning regarding that. Your interpretation of his vote on you is that he was voting you only because you voted Wall-E his, you suppose, scumbuddy. Instead, he seems to say it's based on gut and his previous case against you, which I personally believe is still valid. Hence I think your strong belief in their buddyship is baloney.

I'd like to hear about charter say something about him claiming scum. I think he's either being stupid, or a jester of some sort, so for now.

FOS:charter

IGMEOY

. Read the thread before you repeat untruths and/or craplogic, please, especially if you're coming out of lurking/little posting to do only that.

I'm not saying rush, but lets try and wrap up day one.

It's taking a few pages, but not too long real time-wise and we're getting stuff done, which is good. I've been in a longer Day 1 with fewer people and we ended up lynching scum, so I'm all right with discussion continuing as it will until the lynch.

Unvote, Vote: GnKoichi

[Plum]

It's been fun pointing out the holes in some of GnK's attacks of Charter, but at this point there are some things going on with him that clearly

aren't

just Gnk's interpretations. For the benefit of everyone, I'm going to post a list of my suspects. Nameless, was it you who said that we can't all be scum, despite appearances to the contrary? I know there's something wrong with either the town or the scumteam when I've got four players I find overtly suspicious plus two I find somewhat/minorly suspicious

plus

two chronic lurkers not in in either of those groups. If you're on my list, consider yourself as having a FOS from me of degree apropriate to your place and case on the list.

1. GnK: The weird behavior around Wall-E, e.g. going from him as protown and trying to help him get into the game by voting him, rediculous surety on an at-a-stretch-at-best interpretation of Charter's votes to imply a Charter/Wall-E scumteam. At the time, what a call for votes on Charter in caps lock for what appeared to be strongly-worded suspicions, not, as he claimed, a clear admission that he's scum (more on this below). In conjunction with this, suggesting a no-lynch looks less like a newbie/nulltell and more like the work of scum. Attacked Charter earlier for 'trying to mislead the town' by sharing his thoughts on how many NKs would go through, which I've personally refuted multiple times and so won't do so here. Ask if you've got questions.

2. Charter: Claimed Doc, our vanilla, I suppose, prematurely; followed this by saying he lies as town. Suggested we wrap up Day 1 when there's still valuble discussion going on. Expressing the fact that he has more suspicions than he's telling us about and not elaborating - anti-townish. Going back and forth on how strong his

multiple

'overtstated' suspicions or lack thereof are - he excuses many things as 'just another overstatement'.

GK, can you tell me how those lies benefit scum more than town?

Seems to admit to lying in this instance. When under pressure after that, an unhelpful post:

Whatever, if you guys actually lynch me you're incredibly dumb. It doesn't benefit me if I'm scum either. I stand by my guesses on who's scum. Don't listen to anything GK says.

The 'Whatever, you're being stupid, etc.' post which doesn't defend himself or indeed help the town at all doesn't do anything to lower my suspicions.

3. Wall-E: I've made a case on him, being his attempt to make a case on Charter and then Nameless by extension, which were based on untruths and hypocrisy (taking some of Charter's actions as scumtells when he'd committed them himself; unhelpful to the town).

4. OP: Lack of posting overall, awful percentage of posts being useful or helpful, i.e. not many. Came in and quoted Nameless on Wall-E, added an emoticon, and voted him to L-2; implied GnK is doing a good job (useless, and, in my himble opinion, wrong) and supports the almost entirely baseless (it's based on at-a-stretch-at-best interpretations of Charter's votes, as above) Wall-E/Charter scumteam theory ithout warranting it.

5. Animorpherv: Lesser suspicions, but quickly votes Wall-E after replacing in with little explaination. Parroting. Parroting untruths.

Lesser suspicions here:

MK and TM: Just get posting, please lurkers.

Kiro: Old suggestion of no-protects. Really minor suspicions here, as otherwise I can't think of anything dubious he's done off the top of my head, and the above may well not have been the work of scum.

Everyone else is everyone else.

[Plum]

@Kmd: No, I don't think they're bussing one another. I'm, say, dunno, %80 sure GnK is scum with players other than Charter or is the SK, and perhaps %20 sure that Charter is scum with players other than GnK and maybe 15% chance on top of that that he's SK. Furthermore, the list I posted was the cases in order as I see them without gut feelings much factored, in, as I don't see sharing suspicions or lack thereof I can't quantify with the town as being very helpful. Having said that, I'll say that I have a town vibe on Charter. The actual case on him as I see it is perhaps slightly stronger than the case on Wall-E as I see it, though.

Wow, fast votes on Charter from three chronic lurkers with little explaination.

TM: Little scumhunting, followed by a short case, consisting partly of a random appeal to emotion or pointless sarcasm, then the point of Charter mentioning suspicions he can't won't back up now. Valid but no less important than much of what's been discussed - I'd prefer he give a more comprehensive somment. Still, could be a worse vote. See below.

Animorpherv: Parroting, parroting untruths, useless posts, not commenting on discussion, as stated above. Votes with only a vibe as the given reason.

HOS: Animorpherv

OP: Perhaps two of his twelve posts this game have been useful at all. He's signed onto the (stupid) Wall-E/Charter scumteam theory without warranting his position at all and votes

because of it

. Etc.

HOS: OP

[Plum]

Plum, you say there is a stronger case against Charter than against Wall-E. You've left your vote on me. Why do you think there is a stronger case against me than against Charter? What do you believe I have done that is scummier than what Charter has in the last few pages? Do you have a defense for Charter, or do you agree with my analysis in Post #403?

GnK: The weird behavior around Wall-E, e.g. going from him as protown and trying to help him get into the game by voting him, rediculous surety on an at-a-stretch-at-best interpretation of Charter's votes to imply a Charter/Wall-E scumteam. At the time, what a call for votes on Charter in caps lock for what appeared to be strongly-worded suspicions, not, as he claimed, a clear admission that he's scum (more on this below). In conjunction with this, suggesting a no-lynch looks less like a newbie/nulltell and more like the work of scum. Attacked Charter earlier for 'trying to mislead the town' by sharing his thoughts on how many NKs would go through, which I've personally refuted multiple times and so won't do so here. Ask if you've got questions.

In my opinion, Charter's behavior has been unhelpful and anti-town, but I'm still less sure that his overstated suspicions (unhelpful) and statement that he has other suspicions but refusal to elaborate (unhelpful again) are scum work, not just anti-town behavior. Much of your behavior, however, seems more unambiguously scummy. That plus gut plus the fact that most of the players I find scummy are attacking him makes me feel the case on you is more worthy of persuit at this point than the case on Charter.

[Plum]

On Animorpherv: He's gone

way

up in my suspicions with that last post. I'll quote it and comment in bold, yeah?

He replaces in, votes Wall-E

Becauase I thought the was scum

Because he suugested people claim targets Day 2? I don't think it was the smartest proposition, but much worse happened during the setup discussion, which Ani didn't comment on at all. He also says Wall-E was "contradictory", making him "scum right there". An almost baseless suspicion and vote - a quick vote on the player with the highest vote count at that. If he would cite some instances himself or even build some sort of basic case on Wall-E, I'd be all right with that - I was quite suspicious of Wall-E at that time myself. As it stands, looks baseless and perhaps opportunistic, and not making a decent case before/with a vote is anti-town and potentially scummy in my book.

asks if charter claimed scum

I thought he did from what GNK said, I noticed that was a mistake

Alone, a nulltell, with your behavior as a whole, potentially scummy. In either case try to

read the thread yourself

and not rely on what everyone else seems to be saying (seriously, remember that not everyone is trying to help the town here). In this case you were wrong. Do better.

votes charter for a scummy vibe.

So, if you think someone is scum, you won't vote them? How interesting...

You had over 16 pages to look at for scumtells and the most you tell us is that looking at Charter's posts you get a scum vibe. Not town helpful, as given seems almost baseless. If you'd analyzed, found two players' actions about equally scummy and had more of a scum vibe on one, I'd be all right with a vote decided by gut. This is just unhelpful and scummy. Your distracting, dare I say stupid rhetorical question at Kiro also looks scummy. Did you intentionally misinterpret his statement?

He's not discussing anything at all, particularly one of the hottest topics of the Day.

Yah, right, that's the "hot topic". I've been watching the thread, at least.

Prove it by giving your opinion on topics the town is focusing on, even if you have to tell us why you think it's irrelevent.

If you read all of his posts alone, it's surprising how few words have come out from him

Becuase I don't feel like a lot of words actually

helps

Maybe words don't always make that much of a difference, but your posts sorely lack

substance

of any sort.

and it's hard to say if he even knows GnK exists.

? I do, I'm not stupid.

Prove it.

Want anything else, just ask.

Ani's posts:
0. Confirms replacing.
1. Votes Wall-E, tiny case.
2. Backs up vote with unwarranted statement.
3. Quotes for truth; substanceless.
4. FOSs Charter because he heard Charter claimed scum.
5. "Oops" on the last post.
6. Baseless suspicions of Nameless being "up to something", parroting Wall-E.
7. Votes Charter on scum vibe.
8. Post quoted above; stupid arguments.
9. Sarcastically notes Stef's vote on him.

HOS: Animorpherv

Also:

Plum does something similar, though more often and even more comprehensive, so she's clear in my mind. I think she's a good example for what the others should aspire to.

Um, warm fuzzy feeling?

Lastly:

That was who I would kill if it were up to me, not who I find scummiest.

You

wouldn't

kill who you found scummiest? Or, what do you mean by this?

[Plum]

I'm pushing hard for the Charter lynch because I think being caught in the three or four lies that Charter has is much worse than Lurking. I also think it's extremely strange that there is all this focus on Ani when there are three other lurkers who are posting even less than he is. You can say my defense of him is hint of a scum pair, but honestly if Charter were not so suspicious, I would be voting for a Lurker right now as well. Only, I honestly don't see how Ani giving brief answers is worse than OP, Mana, and Tony giving no answers at all.

Ani's not up there on my list of suspects for mere lurking. He's there because of his multiple practically unexplained votes, lack of decent explainations for said votes, unwarranted parroting of others' suspicions, lack of substance contributed, hasn't commented much if at all on some of the most town-pressing issues of the day, parroted the untruth about Charter having claimed scum, which he didn't, and misinterpreted Kiro's comment about him only voted Charter citing only a 'scummy vibe'. Some of those are supporting points which wouldn't be so incriminating except in conjunction with the other scumtells.

Stef: A word on the Charter lynch, which seems likely? I have another ten minutes, so: I see multiple better cases in my opinion. Off the top of my head, I'd rather lynch GnK (on whom I have my vote), Animorpherv, and OP. I'm not sure that GnK is right about Charter having seven people on his scum list - I've seen him with GnK, Kiro, Animorpherv with SK Kmd and since then nothing too much contradicting that on a quick scan. Also keeping in mind the fact that suspicions do and should evolve, well. GnK, I'd also like to see quotes about Charter's seven-player scumlist.

I'll be V/LA Friday and Saturday.

[Plum]

Plum, I'm assuming you're going to be V/LA Friday afternoon-Saturday night on a weekly basis, so you don't have to announce it every week

Don't worry; I don't plan to. This week in particular it'll probably be something like 48 hours (nothing at all Friday or Saturday, off chance of a post Saturday night) without access instead of the usual 25 or so, and as it seems we may be close to lynch I wanted to let everyone know that.

Wall-E: Anything specifically made you change your thinking about whether Charter was scum or not? Further, if they're both town, who's closest to getting your vote now?

[Plum]

So basically, everything I say is utterly meaningless.

Ding! That's exactly right! You hit the nail on the head!

Seriously. You have 17 game posts. I think I can count on one hand your useful posts in which you do some actual scumhunting or point out something even vaguely important. You've made next to no strong analysis whatsoever. You don't want to detail who you think is town because you don't want to give scum info. I could deal with that if you followed it up with 'but here's who I find scummy for clear, warranted reasons X Y and Z'. The problem is that you've decided that because it's Day 1 you can take a backseat. Let me tell you that in my first game on this site the town lynched scum Day 1 and then mislynched three times in a row, so it's very possible for the town to do good work, lynch scum, and get good discussion going Day 1. Just because you feel outnumbered doesn't give you an excuse to let others do all the talking and not scumhunt. Active lurking is anti-town.

Sure, you've

voted

, but always either without a case or with a case that's based on unwarranted craplogic. You've refused to make cases or even summarize the reasons for your votes.

If you're town you're being distracting, counter-productive, unhelpful and anti-town. You're acting like part of the problem, not part of the solution.

Defend yourself and defend your vote by making/summarizing a decent case against Charter and warranting it, and also give some thoughts on other noteworthy happenings/other people you find suspicious (and why). Please. Your lack of substantial content is scummy.

[Plum]

animorph needs to post something (been waiting for this one for a while).

Mod: please prod him if necessary.

I only post wqhen I have something to say.

There's plenty to talk about. Talk about it or tell us why you don't find it relevent. Your dicussion helps the town. Active lurking is anti-town, and with what you've done already looks at least potentially scummy.

[Plum]

animorph needs to post something (been waiting for this one for a while).

Mod: please prod him if necessary.

I only post wqhen I have something to say.

There's plenty to talk about. Talk about it or tell us why you don't find it relevent. Your dicussion helps the town. Active lurking is anti-town, and with what you've done already looks at least potentially scummy.

I'm generaly confused with everyone voting GnK. Can someone explain why?

GnK: The weird behavior around Wall-E, e.g. going from him as protown and trying to help him get into the game by voting him, rediculous surety on an at-a-stretch-at-best interpretation of Charter's votes to imply a Charter/Wall-E scumteam. At the time, what a call for votes on Charter in caps lock for what appeared to be strongly-worded suspicions, not, as he claimed, a clear admission that he's scum (more on this below). In conjunction with this, suggesting a no-lynch looks less like a newbie/nulltell and more like the work of scum. Attacked Charter earlier for 'trying to mislead the town' by sharing his thoughts on how many NKs would go through, which I've personally refuted multiple times and so won't do so here. Ask if you've got questions.

To be honest, he's done things in the past few pages that have made me think he's scum, too, especially his attack on Charter for having had seven people on his scumlist, a claim that I don't think is factual (in times recent enough to be relevent, I believe I've seen only four, and without quotes from GnK I don't accept the fact he's citing here) and furthermore evolution of one's suspects can and should happen as necessary in this game. GnK also seems to be asking people to vote Charter with some degree of appeal to emotion.

GnK: I took all of your arguments seriously enough to argue with them when I found them illogical, anti-town, or scummy. Not agreeing =/= doesn't take seriously. For example, I took your Charter/Wall-E scumteam possibility seriously enough that I looked at it and posted on argument on why I thought it was wrong and based on poor logic. In addition, see my post listing short cases on everyone I found scummy, ranked in strength of case (not strength of gut or on scumbuddy speculation). You'll notice Charter was at number 2 then. I've certainly been on your case. I find you most scummy and think I've explained why adequately. If not, please request clarification; I'll be glad to oblige. But I've tried my best not to avoid analyzing other players and their actions; hopefully I've been successful.

[Plum]

Jesus, I really hate to do this.

Unvote

I've managed to convince myself through re-reading that Charter isn't scum, just a really bad player. I've looked over my own arguments against him, and even I have to admit that I stretched those ideas. Hell yes, he's been misleading, and it's possible he did that to cover up some scummy behavior or throw off the town. But the more I read the more it feels like he's just not playing very well.

Crap.

unvote, vote GnK

*sigh*

I am not entirely convinced GnK was scum. I had some suspicions on you before, but I liked your case on charter moreso the case on you. It might be entirely possible you both are scum, and you were super bussing (in which case, perhaps charter is a mafia doc). Or..maybe 1 is scum, the other is the compulsive SK? But reading GnK's post, he pretty much posts a lot of the same thing - analysis of the game, and basically telling all the "lurkers" to contribute. I will contribute.. to lynching scum. Hopefully, you guys were right all along about GnK. *crosses fingers*

Also, Day 2- I am not going to lurk or whatever. I am not going to mention my bad play day 1, I am just going to contribute, share my thoughts more clearly, and be generally more pro-town. Right now, I've become one of those bad townies who the scum keep around so they have people they can convince the town to lynch, which is unfortunate. But yeah, hopefully, we get lucky, and GnK is indeed scum. Think what you will for me hammering. If he turns out to be town, I'm sure I will get a lot of heat for it, and probably be quicklynched, but I think, besides charter, or maybe Wall-E, he's the best choice for lynch.

I don't think that was the hammer, but I do note how willing you seemed to be to do so. In any case, after GnK's latest post I want to

Unvote

.

Basically, while I was initially unsure exactly what was going on with GnK unvoting and all, after his recent analysis post I approve. He seems to have done a good reread, and decent analysis as well (his reads on players are now somewhat close to mine for what seem to be similar reasons, which doesn't preclude him being scum, but does make me feel that he seems to have been thinking logically and clearly, a plus) . I now feel that, yes, GnK may be scum, but the latest post makes me feel like he's more likely town openminded enough to do a fresh read and seriously consider the possibility that he may be wrong and that he may have made poor arguments.

So, where would I like my vote? Any of our three low-contributers can be said to have been scummy enough that a vote might not be out of place. Of these, I've had the worst gut feelings on OP and plan to vote for him. See the post above, where, notice, he doesn't mention GnK's good analysis post, just his 'I'm less supicious of Charter, unvote' post, and calls him out for "[P]retty much post[ing] a lot of the same thing -

analysis of the game

, and basically telling all the "lurkers" to contribute." Emphasis mine. OP, you've posted little enough analysis of your own, please don't call out others for analyzing the game. Or did you mean setup speculation? Because there hasn't been much of that for at least the last ten pages. He's voted the Wall-E wagon late with only a quote and an emoticon, just following Nameless' accusation of contradictons, no analysis of his own. Many of his posts are literally void of substance. He agrees with the stupid Wall-E/Charter scumteam theory without warranting his position (on what was in my mind a craplogic-based idea anyway . . .). He complains multiple times after being called out for something he posts that he's told not to lurk and questioned when he contributes. That's the way to play the game, sorry. Later unvotes and votes Charter, again, it appears, only on the Charter/Wall-E team theory. He admits to active lurking, a generally anti-town and suspicious sort of thing. His latest vote is what he seems to think is a hammer on GnK, without much reasoning and seemingly reluctantly, and ends with a promise to play pro-town tomorrow.

GnK: I'm Jewish and saw an opportunity to quote a Jewish Law logic point in the game. Just an in-joke for me.

Also, as I was writing this I noticed Wall-E and GnK posting: this was written after I saw OP's vote on GnK.

Vote: orangepenguin

[Plum]

@OP:Why did you claim so early? You have 3 votes.. 4 more votes are necessary to lynch. Weird panic you got into. I have seen scum act this way before in one of my games.

I'm not the only doctor, so being doctor isn't that big of a deal in this game, added to the fact that scum tend to keep people like me around. If I claim, and scum still jump on me, and I am lynched, the scum will be easier to catch that way, you know? Plus, I am always speed lynched day 1 for stupid reasons, so yeah, I tend to panic. I'd rather risk my own neck if it keeps me around. The only negative of my claim is that it gives the scum info, so they can use that to their advantage, in whatever way they please.

You who were so unwilling to give analysis because it would 'give the scum information' - you who haven't given much analysis of anything - feel the need to claim Doctor at L-4. That's nice.

Let me clarify: Did you think you were hammering GnK?

Active lurking: You admitted to having a habit of not standing out/speaking up much on Day 1, and followed that habit pretty well. I'm sorry, you did not admit to active lurking. But you

have

played without giving much substance or analysis, which is what I mean by 'active lurking'.

[Plum]

I will contribute.. to lynching scum. Hopefully, you guys were right all along about GnK.
...
Think what you will for me hammering.

I am actually glad I wasn't the hammer though. I don't think I should have that responsibility.

Now, why are you first ready and willing to hammer, because apparently you think GnK is scummy enough that you want him hammered, and now suddenly don't think you should have that responsibility? Do you want GnK lynched or not? If yes, why not by your vote? Explain thoroughly.

[Plum]

I'd wager OP is town.

That's nice. Care to tell us

why

?

[Plum]

The wagon on OP does have merits, and OP's pretend hammer is scummy, but the reason I brought that point up and what still worries me is that Wall-E, GK and Plum all decide OP is

now

worth their vote and the ONLY thing they mention as a

new

reason against OP is his that he dares to admit he's not 100% sure and that GK is only his 2nd or 3rd choice for a lynch.

Not exactly, at least in my case. Firstly, GnK's analysis post had some degree of influence there - I was impressed by it and wanted to reconsider my vote on him. OP had just put him at L-1 with little of his own analysis, and it's not the first time this game he's joined a bandwagon without a case of his own, or a summary of the case against the player and why he personally thought the case was strong enough to warrant a vote. He quoted GnK's 'I think I really need to reconsider my suspicions of Charter' post, which I think implyed that said post was part of the reason OP voted him, but did not mention GnK's analysis post in relation to it. He also appeared to have thought he

hammered

GnK with that barely-backed up vote. That plus the lack of scumhunting substance from him and the analysis I made of him previously (included in that was his stupid, unwarranted buy-in to GnK's Charter/Wall-E scumteam theory) made him, at that point, the one who most deserved my vote.

To sum up - not entirely new reasons for my vote, but enough reasons overall that I think my vote is in a decent place right now. Having said that, apparently OP's had this sort of thing happen with him as town before. I think he's fairly scummy, but I'm keeping my mind open. GnK's not

cleared

by me, just looks less scummy (to me) after his analysis post. Likewise, other players whom I've questioned/attacked/voted. Then again, as Charter said, letting OP off the hook after he does scummy things isn't an appealing option even if this is closer to a nulltell for OP.

[Plum]

Let me just say that this is the second time this game I've been thoroughly dumbfounded by Wall-E's interaction with OP. And by dumbfounded I mean to say that I thought 'well, that certainly looks like possible scumbuddy interaction', and this is from a person

not

given to too much scumbuddy speculation on Day 1, either.

[Plum]

Top of page 21, I believe.

OP please address the many posts and questions directed at you/discussing you.

I don't think Gnk is scum. I think charter is. I think the choice between them is obvious. mmdmm...I will address the questions. Like you said, there is many of them, and I don't know where to begin. Most of the points just say I don't give any content or post a lot. Nothing really to defend. That's the truth. It's not because I don't care, but day 1, I always feel outnumbered, so I tend to take a backseat, and let others do all the talking. I really don't know what questions you want answered though, so please, direct them at me again, if you feel they are that important.

Nope, that's exactly what I wanted. Thanks OP.

Very weak response on OP's part. He doesn't say why he doesn't think GnK is scum (and, come to think of it, doesn't say much about what made him change his mind when he eventually voted GnK) and that Charter is, no case made, and admits to accusations that he's not contributing much. And that's exactly the sort of response that satisfied you.

as Nameless said:

Wall-E and OP's 500 to 503 are ... horrible.
...
OP is convinced Charter is scum for explained reason whatsoever (unless "is obvious" counts). OP will "address the questions" by ... no actually, he doesn't any specific questions at all - and Wall-E is fine with that?!

His conclusion was that possibly scum Wall-E was trying to buddy up with lurker OP. My conclusion is possible scumbuddy interaction. I'm far, far from sure of this, I should add, but I wanted to mention that this is the second time in recent memory I've seen dubious interaction between OP and you, Wall-E.

[Plum]

Quick post here:

1. OP

didn't

make any analysis whatsoever for his vote,

which he thought was the hammer

, because, he says, "I figured, no, I'll just vote, since I figured it was the hammer anyways, and that, since I was the last one, that a full blown case wasn't necessary". He evidently was prepared to hammer GnK on no analysis at all, which begs the question: So, what made you want to hammer him, then? Also, what's with the discrepency between that and

I think, if I were to hammer, I should've provided quotes to support my reasonings.

2.

I really dislike when people try to group people as scum partners when you don't even know if either of t he pair are confirmed scum or not, or what have you.

Fair enough, though I did make it clear that I was pointing out a second instance of dubious interaction between you and Wall-E and that I was and am far from certain that you two are scumbuddies. But what's with

I didn't really think so at first, but his Wall-E-Charter theory makes enough sense.

Eh, I think Wall and charter are partners [...]

You don't like scumbuddy speculation when neither of those on which the speculation is focused is confirmed scum? A fair enough position. So, why have you done that this game? Hypocrisy has already been discussed and the conclusion is that it's at least not town-helpful, if not in and of itself scummy. So?

[Plum]

Sorry I haven't posted much the last day or two. I'm attempting a reread through the last page or two, and will have some comments.

However, since this line of thinking leads to one more person who thinks OP is scum, I support it.

This line kind of rubs me the wrong way.

Neither KMD nor GnK should have made such a big deal over what they did make a big deal over, but here we are. Implications GnK later explains, were that he supports conjecture that leads to more people beieving OP is scum. Not exactly what I first got out of this (thought it was more specific to KMD), but whatever. This will teach me not to post for a page again, because I just spent twenty minutes analyzing next to nothing. Joyjoyjoyjoyjoy.

Animorpherv is being typical of himself; lurking, posting to add a supporting voice to someone's suspicions or comment on such, without any substance whatsoever. I'm tempted to vote him despite my suspicions of OP and others. Good grief, make

some

effort to show

some

original thinking or some backed up stance, because as it is you're either lurker scum or a townie who detracts from scumhunting and doesn't add to it at all.

Stef votes Ani; fine. OP does something uncharictaristically useful, or at least posts something rather relevent, and finds earlier conjecture on Stef's part regarding a possible scumteams including Ani. Joking, though, it appears; at least mostly.

Ani makes another useless post to the effect of 'actually, I'm not scum.'

ANI: CONTRIBUE. TELL US WHO YOU THINK MAY BE SCUM AND

WHY

. PLEASE

WARRANT YOUR POSITION

. Sorry for the caps, but so many sources of scumminess, such uselessness from Ani . . . ugh. Ani - don't beat around the bush. Tell us, say, what you think of OP and why. I believe this has been asked of you already.

G-d, Day 1 is taking a long time.

[Plum]

I would go on a limb and say Charter+Ani+GnK could be scumteam I have no real basis to my statement as it isn't really serious anyway. But it would be fun

..except this. So that answers charter's question.

I don't see an ani/charter team at all.

But I do think ani is scum.

vote:animorpherv1

. He is active lurking and has not contributed anything to this game at all.

Maybe he'll respond to pressure?

oops, missed this, don't see how.

Anyways, I'm not scum. I know of this fact. You guys don't. Noone does. If I could explain this better, I would.

Unvote

Good. Grief. Ani, that's not the way to convince anyone you're townie. If you

are

town, you are one of the most problematic, unhelpful townies out there. Much as part of my gut says 'he's playing like a clueless newb', a great part of my reason is saying 'he's acting like straight-up scum'.

Ani, I'm asking for

one

decent post telling us who to lynch, if not you. Convince me or I'll see fit to hammer you. I was tempted to hammer in this post, but I'm showing just a bit of deference to what's left of my newb-town gut on you. Go.

[Plum]

(One more vote isn't a hammer. Wall-E was already voting for Ani, so he's still L-2)

Ah, I missed that . Well, then.

Vote: animorpherv

. See almost everything I've said about him during this game. That's L-1 now, I believe.

[Plum]

Elvis, welcome! This was a pleasant surprise.

3)

Hypocritically denounced scumbuddy theorizing whilst engaging in it himself. This is less a scumtell in my book. It's like a half-scumtell. After all, I'm a huge hypocrite. Still, it adds to the pile.

Yay irony! And meta-hypocrisy! Still, I see OP's hypocrisy as a legitimate part of the case against him, so I'll look at Wall-E's hypocrisy as another matter relevent to the case on

him

. Moving on. Other parts of Wall-E's post: Calls OP out on saying he didn't have a case on Wall-E when he had. My question here was that Wall-E accpted OP's quote-and-vote as a case, but on reread he apparently didn't mind it. Hmmm. For now, fine, I suppose. The unvote and such itself: looks kinda . . . well, schitzo-y; how flavor-text appropriate. Still, as Elvis said, weird vote switch, especially as nothing came from Ani between the 'I wish my vote would hammer Animorpherv' and 'unvote, let's go back at the OP case, voe OP'. That's consistent with Wall-E's inconsistent behavior this game, at least. He's been all over the map, somethimes verging on uncharted territory. Then again, I sort of see where he might be coming from: Not expecting much of Ani, but giving him a chance at redemption before a hammer.

GnK is getting pretty strong with the denouncement of his play for the first 23 pages of this game. Really strong.

I don't totally disagree with EK's analysis of my earliest play, as I feel I only completely got into the game around the time I voted Wall-E, which is not to say I would consider myself to have 'totally not been scumhunting' (this might also have been due to having had to catch up with two or three pages of play twice in the early bits of the game, if I recall correctly). I was slow to vote and my contributions weren't as good as they got, so for an early scan I don't overall mind the minor accusation.

More stupid semantics. I'll say that in saying 'half the game' and later clarifying the halves to be pages 1-23 and pages 24-30, or wherever we're at, he did nothing wrong or contradictory enough to warrant comment. I could explain this, but it would be more semantics. The main point of the original statement was that there were two distinct parts of the game; in the first GnK's play was not as good, and the second, ongoing of which, in which his play was better.

Kmd: First an eyeroll post rhetorically asking GnK if we're supposed to ignore his play during the first 23 pages of play (not especially helpful) and then, after an admirably reasonable response post from GnK, Kmd just bashes him, providing little substance about his views of GnK as he did so. To be honest, I haven't had any relly strong feelings about Kmd thus far. Offhand, I would have said, 'hasn't done anything overtly scummy lately' and 'Oh yeah, for some reason Charter seems to think he's the SK'. But now I'm . . . meh, at least be useful, etc. Much of your latest posting hasn't been too useful, Kmd; I plan to keep an eye on you.

On that note:

It's almost the same thing as me saying I lied, he's admitting to playing scummily.

No, not really. He seems to be saying he's tried to play pro-town the whole game, and in retrospect feels that for much of the game he's failed to do so and has done scummy things. Lying is more a direct, concious decision to do something that's too often anti-town.

So, I'm not allowed to express things in my own way?

Wow, thats bad.

I don't know to whom this response was directed, but that was a bad post. Seriously, Ani, convince us,

expressing it your own way, if you like

, that you're reading the game, playing seriously, trying to benefit the town, and scumhunting. That should include a brief case on a player you find scummy. By 'case', I mean some sort of minor analysis or explaination as to why you find that player scummy.

Ani posts with no contribution and Nameless watches Wall-E with interest. OP is still hypocritical and Nameless is disappointed, and also wishes OP would actually make the analysis of GK he supposedly wanted to make.

Plum does, too.

Ugh. I just read what "bussing" means. Well, crap.

People play this game pretty crazy.

Yeah, bussing. That's something to take into account, in my opinion, after the town successfully lynches scum (like, for example, serious scumpartner accusations). I, as town, lost my (intense, well-played by many) newbie game despite lynching the first scum Day 1 because his partner bussed him so thoroughly that day. It's a useful technique in other words, and something players should take into account. And yeah, I think you could quite possibly be bussing Ani, but I'm not going to think about that as an argument too seriously until one of you filps scum, if and when that happens. There's planty more potential bussing out there; much too much for speculating about every single vote being bussing to be worth it.

Of course people play this game crazy. That's part of what makes it such fun .

[Plum]

Well, I was mainly hoping for that analysis post from Animo, and a claim. He's posted without any analysis since I asked for it. His claim is probably what a SK would claim. Mafia may or may not claim that. I don't think he is a vig. And, by dibs, I meant I wanted to do this:

Vote Animorph

FOS: Kmd

. I've learned from experience that it's not usually a good idea lynch claimed powerroles Day 1, and vig is our main, most powerful powerrole (as Charter said, Doc claim is about the equivalent of a vanilla claim). Not to say that Ani hasn't continued to act scummy, lack of analysis and all, but that the claim should have been taken more into account. I'd have unvoted when I saw that to prevent an overhasty hammer like that one, but Kmd's vote beat whatever action I'd have done. There have been decent enough cases on others that I would have liked to at least reconsider the Ani lynch. I'll leave much further discussion of this until after Ani flips whatever he does. Still, I'd say that for such a quick hammer after the claim Kmd hsn't made too much of a case on Ani. I don't like it. Then again, Wall-E and GnK both posted after Ani's claim without comment. What were your thoughts, you two???

I'm thinking we lynch GnKoichi or Kiro (or plum), let animorpherv live for today but don't protect him tonight.

I know my thoughts on the GnK case, but why do you suspect Kiro and why do you suspect me? Curiosity speaking here, as aside from Kiro's early no-protect suggestion, there has been relatively little suspicion directed at either of us. What scumminess have you seen?

[Plum]

Plum, I did respond to the Ani claim. I said he was just doing what Stef told him to do to avoid being lynched. I don't think we can treat it like a normal claim. He was desperate to avoid the hammer, and apparently it would have worked if you had seen it before Kmd. Frankly, I don't think it changes anything and I'm glad the lynch went through.

You're right, you did respond. My apologies.

Animorph, were you scum?

I'd have said he can't post if he's dead, according to the rules, but as the death scene hasn't actually been posted . . .

[Plum]

kmd, explain.

Allow me to elaborate slightly:

Kmd, explain.

Vote: Kmd4390

Allow me to second your elaboration: Explain, Kmd.

Vote: Kmd

.

[Plum]

Rules are clearly stated, Kmd.

Unvotes would be very much appreciated, but not necessary.

You attempt a stunt like that as town you

check

the rules.

Frankly, Kmd, I don't buy your excuse. I think your inability to read throughout this game is an act. You've used it too strategically. You never just make a mistake. You make a mistake that makes someone else look bad, or you make a mistake that would excuse your own scummy behavior. It's all getting to be a little much.

GnK, please quantify this statement with other examples of Kmd's mistakes, etc. Also, as you were pleased that Ani was hammered when Kmd did it, why do you have a problem with the fact that Kmd said it was supposed to be a fake hammer? What do you find scummy about it? Elaborate.

But anyway, based on reactions to the fake hammer that ended up counting, I think GnK and Kiro are scum.

I'd go along with you and actually consider you made an honest mistake... except you don't elaborate on your suspicions. You don't point out anything specific about our statements. What you said above is such a blanket statement. You look like you're just giving up. If you're Town, you should realize that there are now 5 Townies, 3 Scum, and 1 SK. This is no time for you to be just passively letting your lynch go if you're Town. Your initial reaction to the day fails.

That. Also:

I see no problems claiming night actions. If two people claim vig, we have a 50% chance of catching scum in it.

I don't like your nonchalance about this. A mislynch today may very well mean a town loss, especially now that we only have one vig. Massclaim might have merits, which I'm still debating with myself, but while the scenario you outlined above might be the best we can do, I certainly do see a problem with it.

I don't think Kmd is scummy for hammering. I am pretty sure scum is on the wagon somehow...or WAS.

Qualify that with a case. Also, why do you see nothing suspicious in a hammer directly after a Vig claim?

Also, for now I think that if we're considering protect-claims - either massclaim or nothing might be the way to go. I simply don't see us gaining enough info relative to the scum's info gain to make it worth it; massclaim might pay us better in risk-to-information-gained. With protect-claim there are plenty of lies scum can make to get out of it without revealing themselves, resulting in us gaining little information. If it's info we're after, massclaim is what we should be considering.

I don't advocate a massclaim quite yet, though.

[Plum]

Well, jesus. Are we in a LyLo? Right now we've got two docs and a vig, and there's an SK and two Mafia (one a doc). If we need four to lynch, we NEED the SK to vote with town, and we need to get ALL of town on the same page, unless the Mafia start bussing each other (I doubt they would this late in the game, right?). I think it's in the SK's interest to scum hunt with us at this point, right? A Mafia majority would be bad for him, too, or am I missing something? Or, could we try to lynch the SK? That would leave 2 Mafia at night (at least one protected) and 3 Town (hopefully two protected), with a Mafia kill and a Vig kill. If the Mafia kill goes through, and the Vig kill doesn't (or hits town by mistake), we're pretty much dead. So it seems like we have to lynch Mafia, and deal with the SK later.

All night phase, I was thinking about why Kmd would off himself. This is the only thing I could come up with: We were close to figuring something out. The only other thing discussed was claiming. If he killed himself to prevent the claiming conversation from happening, then we NEED to examine that avenue. I'm perfectly willing to claim first if others are hesitant. In fact, I'll just do it.

I'm a town Doc. Both nights I protected Wall-E.

Mmmhm. I was so ticked when Kmd self-hammered to cut off the discussion that I threw a disposable waterbottle against the floor so hard it sprung a leak [/useless details, sorry].

I've been thinking about Kmd's fake hammer gambit that allowed us to catch him. He said that 'for the record, the hammer was actually supposed to be a fake hammer on Anim. I didn't lie about that.' Why did he do it? My guess is that as scum he did it to get incriminating reactions. Having said that, he called Kiro and GnK scum at the beginning of Day 2; he similarly attempted to incriminate them late Day 1. It appears to me that it might have been in his best interest to attempt to incriminate one townie (or SK, as he wouldn't know for certain if anyone not on his scumteam was either SK or town) and one scumbuddy to bus. At the very least it appears that he might have wanted to take good advantage of that by bussing one scumbuddy successfully, thus strengthening his town cred, then maybe go for a mislynch on the other. On the basis of that speculation, I would say GnK is more likely his scumbuddy than Kiro is. I speculate that Kmd might have bussed GnK hard early. In either case I think it's not unlikely that Kmd ideally wanted town-cred out of a scumbuddy bus and perhaps an ensuing mislynch out of his fake-hammer gambit.

FOS: GnK

.

Having said that, I have a slight but nagging gut that Kiro's the mafia Doc (which is probably mostly influenced by the early no-protect suggestion; possibly SK, but this gut is not extremely strong). And I'm not sure that either GnK or Kiro was Kmd's scumbuddy. This is a somethimes WIFOM-plagued chunk of thought on why Kmd might have done what he did, and what we can learn from it.

If Kmd was actually lying about not meaning to hammer Ani, I can only conclude that he was scum rather shamelessly trying to off a Vig quick.

As GnK said, we're in LyLo - or LSooC - and must lynch scum if we do not want to deeply, deeply screwed - mafia and not SK, it seems, would be preferable. I wasn't sure whether massclaim was the way to go, but it seems that as we do happen to be in LyLo it might be the thing to do. And after GnK and Wall-E claimed, scum will have an easier time than ever narrowing down who's what (either that or GnK and/or Wall-E are scum trying to bait us for claims. I'm uncertain, though leaning toward saying it's a good idea. Would be nice if others chimed in on the subject. On Wall-E's assertations:

Why not out the vig? There's no way he can be killed with two docs in the town, and the odds are good the mafia will hit the SK (1/3) and the odds are good the SK will hit mafia (2/5)... meanwhile the true vig has a 3/4 chance to target scum, and a 2/4 chance to kill scum.

Let's do some fun math, shall we?

We all claim. The remaining scum claim doc. That makes five docs and a vig. The town docs protect the vig, so he's out of the NK pool. That leaves the mafia three available targets, one of whom is the SK.

The SK, on the other hand, has four targets: The two docs, the mafia, the mafia doc (who will be protecting the mafia). 2/4 chance to hit scum.

To complete the tanglefuck of numbers and ratios:

The SK has a 50% chance to kill scum tonight.
The mafia has a 33% chance to kill scum tonight.
The vig has a 50% chance to kill scum tonight.

All of this is predicated on the vig claiming.

Am I wrong?

Does this plan advocate No Lynch today, assuming we have one Vig claim and Five Doc claims?

Anyway, as you stated, the Mafia Doc will be protecting the other scum, and the SK is NK-immune, etc., so actually

The SK has a 25% chance to kill scum tonight (hits the unprotected Mafia Doc), 50% chance to kill a townie (hits one of the unprotected town Docs), 25% chance to do nothing (hits the protected Mafioso).

The Mafia have a 0% chance to kill scum tonight (SK is immune and they're not shooting one of their own), 66% chance to kill a townie (hits one of the unprotected town Docs), 33% chance to do nothing (hits the SK).

The Vig has a 20% chance to kill scum tonight (hits the unprotected Mafia Doc), 40% chance to kill a townie (hits one of the unprotected town Docs) 40% chance to do nothing (hits protected Mafioso or SK).

It seems that Wall-E was quite wrong and his numbers were screwed. And this is all under the assumption that we No Lynch today, and frankly I don't see immediate benefits to doing that at this point in time. Thanks. In addition to that:

As to the "not a noob mistake, but a scumplay" I made in voting KMD: He self-voted, which was enough for me to vote him.

Whoa, wait. Wait just a second there, Wall-E. Kmd self-voted

after

your L-1 vote. What the heck sort if lie do you think you're trying to pull over in us, I ask you. I'm not sure if outright I would set too much stock by Kiro's suspicion that you helped set up Kmd's self-hammer, but when you slip up

HUGE HOS: Wall-E

. Bet you're glad it's LSooC, as you put it, eh? It may not be LyLo, but as I believe I may have stated before, I'm going to be a little less free with votes and more free with my FOS-sort of accusations today.

[Plum]

Plum is town: Is that a statement of fact or opinion?

Yeah. I'm sort of gratified and it warms my heart and all, GnK, but naturally I'm interested to know exactly how you came to that conclusion. Ah, preview has beaten me again. It was just a thought, apparently. If GnK ever uses it in an argument, I'll ask for the thought to be quantified. If not, I'll deal without that for now.

On another note, GnK: Yay conspiracy theories much-ish, though with this sort of town-to-scum ratio I'm not sure that I blame you much. On the whole lynch-SK-versus-lynch-mafia: Now that Nameless has mentioned it, if we lynch the SK we'll be down to one NK to keep track of. That would make a distinct difference in having an extra town Doc protect to throw around if the Vig decides to claim, and if not, it's still one less NK to worry about trying to block. If we lynch Mafia, that leaves 3 town, 1 Mafia, 1 SK, at which point we'd be working on a prayer that the SK hits scum (which in theory he'd be aiming to do). Yes?

Wall-E: In defence of Kiro's accusation that your L-1 vote, which left Kmd open to self-hammer, was scummy and not a noob mistake, you said that

As to the "not a noob mistake, but a scumplay" I made in voting KMD: He self-voted, which was enough for me to vote him. I don't particularly care for your insistence that NOT voting him would have been a good option.

This defending your L-1 vote on Kmd, saying that Kmd's self-vote warranted a vote on Kmd on your part. At least, that's what I immediately think. But then you say that

I meant that his self-vote retroactively reinforced my vote, in my mind. I was online at the time (see my WTH KmD? post) and had considered unvoting. I'm still glad we killed him. I still don't see what waiting would have accomplished. Can someone explain that to me?

Which obviously does not follow the train of thought. You are accused of having made a scummy vote. You justify said vote by saying that Kmd's self voting 'was enough for me vote him'. Then you say that your L-1, self-hammer-opportunity (whether scum action or not) vote was only justified retroactively? What? So now the vote that let him self-hammer was justified in retrospect?

[Plum]

I should have said, "Which was enough for me to lynch him." I misspoke(typed?).

Whaaaaat?

So you attempted to say that you had a reason you put Kmd at L-1 at that point, failed, and now say that you didn't, but the self-hammer was enough that you were fine with his lynch right there? So, any actual response on the L-1 vote? I wouldn't consider it quite as scummy as I do if not for the whole convoluted mess of excuses and explainations you posted. As it stands, however . . .

[Plum]

Maybe I'm not seeing the point you're all making, but I'm going to restate the problem to see if that helps:

I voted for KmD. KmD voted for himself. At that point, I decided to keep my vote on rather than unvote.

Does that make more sense?

No. To Quote GnK:

Wall-E's actual response to KMD's self vote:

UNVOTE

Wth KMD what's with voting yourself?!?

Gah. I'm going to put you all on timeout until someone makes some sense in here.

Vote: Wall-E

Yar, your pants seem to have burst into flame, just so you know. And it's not any explanation for why you put Kmd in the position to self-hammer, anyway.

More evidence that your trousers are begging for a fire extinguisher:

After thinking about it, I would recommend the vig don't claim or at least if s/he does the doctors don't protect the vig unless they would have otherwise, because the chances of going into N4 is low, the vig's kill still goes through if the big is NKed N3, and both docs protecting the vig just makes it easier for the Mafia / SK's kill to go through.





arglebargle

SO YOU AGREE WITH ME THAT WE SHOULD BE CLAIMING THEN?!?!

GNK APPARENTLY DOESN'T!! DESPITE HIS CLAIM!!

Firstly, Kiro obviously doesn't advocate the massclaim. GnK obviously and obtusely did, in the very post wherein he claimed.

Wall-E's actual response to KMD's self vote:

UNVOTE

Wth KMD what's with voting yourself?!?

Gah. I'm going to put you all on timeout until someone makes some sense in here.

Vote: Wall-E

Well, if you're so cock-sure I'm lying, why did you claim?

He claimed bfore you lied. And what direct connection are you trying to insinuate exists between your lies and GnK's advoacation and action for massclaiming?

I have completely boned the town and I apologize right now.

If you are town, which I find increasingly unlikely, yes, you have scrwed town irrevocably.

On brief scan of Kmd's posts, I can see a possible Wall-E-Kmd connection (and, again, the L-1 vote, perhaps). As I think Wall-E is scum, I would have to say at first glance he's more likely Mafia than SK.

[Plum]

Also, hands raised, who is willing to step forward and be the other two votes needed to put Wall-E away once we feel we have a good set of information?

If I haven't made it clear that I think Wall-E is scum and deserves the lynch before now, let me say it here: I'm absolutely willing to vote him when we have a good set of info going into night.

Tony: Wow, that was an eminently decent post. I approve.

On the remaining scum: I'm most comfortable with Nameless as town (as opposed to anyone else). I need more from Tony and to do a Tony reread to determine how likely he is to be scum. I'm fairly sure that one of GnK and Kiro is Mafia, and one is either SK or town (because if Kmd's gambit and accusations - if I went further down that road I would have to guess GnK as Mafia and Kiro as other, but again, I'm not sure enough on it).

Have I left anything out? I plan to do some sort of analysis of Nameless' 'GnK is SK' theory, later, as my lunch recess is over in ten minutes, and the school computer won't let me access the penultimate page of this game for no apparent reason .

[Plum]

Unvote: Vote Plum

Er? Reasons?

[Plum]

I don't see the point in using the time I put into this playing guessing games and experimenting with my psychic capabilities, Wall-E, so it's nice that (after you were asked to) you did mention a reason for voting me.

I'm sorry if I've kept a 'low profile', though I'm not entirely clear on what you mean by that. If I don't happen to be forcefully pushing brand-new ideas at the moment, or happen not to be saying anything particularly risky, I'm sorry. If you brought an example or two of where you think I was intentionally keeping a low profile and can explain why you think doing so in that situation was scummy, I might be able to give you a better response.

Buddying? Are you saying that I'm trying to buddy up to Nameless by not listing him among those whom I most suspect? I'm not ignoring what he says and I am keeping in mind that he very well could be scum. He just seems less scummy than any of the other players, in my mind. My response to Tony? Well, I'll admit I may have been perhaps more positive about his post than necessary, bit effusive, as compared to his previous lack of posting it was a step up and did show some analysis. Other than that, an example of scummy buddying?

[Plum]

Once more into the breach, yea?

There's been a lot of nonsense (and some sense) going on. Let's see -

GnKoichi is still trying to push a mass claim and tried to push for a hammer on Wall-E early. At the risk of reiterating the point, lynching scum today isn't enough at all. The more discussion we have, hopefully the clearer a picture the Docs will have about whom to protect, and the clearer picture the Vig will have of whom to target (remembering that the Vig has only a 1/4 chance of hitting killable scum, assuming that Wall-E is Mafia). The point is that we can't rely on night actions to help set us up for tomorrow, because we're going to have to be both really lucky and play really well for there to even be a viable tomorrow for the Town.

Massclaim - to be honest, I don't see enough benefits to outweigh the risks. Earlier I admit I was uncertain, but now I pretty firmly believe that claiming's not the thing to do. Lies are too easy for the scum to make (seriously, just claiming Doc and claiming to have protected a moderately townie player who's still alive both nights is the work of perhaps two minutes) for us to get serious data out of it. The scum, on the other hand, might be able to deduce who's in the other faction, and importantly, the identity of the Vig. Unless you want to argue that the SK and the Mafia will be able to deduce one anothers' identities and this will in turn lead to town benefit . . . basically, all I can see stemming from it is a sea of WIFOM we'll have to wade through. If the Vig believes he's in danger of death or in a situation where not claiming will lbe a detriment to the Town, I hope to goodness he's smart enough to claim. If not, silence is golden. The problem is that scum lies won't be caught if the scum have half a brain between them. Justification of silence won't be necessary until more people start agreeing to do a massclaim; at that point, scum can, as I've said easily come up with a viable lie. And why do you think the SK's lie won't out him but the Mafioso's claims will?

Now, onto more stuff: I want to get some input and discussion about Kmd. Namely, on his fake-hammer gambit. As I've mentioned before, I'd like to give some thought as to why he did it. When he self-hammered, he said that he truly did not intend to hammer. So, what might he have been attempting to do? My guess is bus a scumbuddy and gain a fair amount of town cred. Maybe go for a mislynch after that. Now, how does he play his fake hammer? He accuses GnK of being scum (pushed him all game, in fact; GnK's early play may well have been newb-scum, a tempting bussing target for Kmd) because of his reaction (which admittedly wasn't great). If the hammer really didn't go through, I can certainly see Kmd successfully pushing GnK, gaining serious town cred for what looked like a successful scm-weeding gambit, then going for a town/SK lynch (as he wouldn't know whether Kiro was one or the other) on Kiro the next day. Hence, theory: GnK is Mafia, one of Kmd's scumbuddies, likely with Wall-E.

Comments? Nameless, can you give a summary of why you believe GnK has, in your opinion, a 95% chance of being the SK?

[Plum]

Nameless and Plum are the only two options as Wall-E's scum partner. I truly don't believe anyone would bus at this point. It's too risky with a Vig and an SK at night.

Depends heavily on at what point of a bandwagon you're talking about. As soon as it hits the point of no return, or hits the point of 'way too likely is about to hit the point of no return' the scumbuddy would theoretically start bussing immediately. It's quite possible that

you

are Wall-E's scumbuddy who smartly contributed to the case along with bussing. The only player I'd really feel like semi-clearing of Mafioso susicion would be Kiro.

Plum: How close do you feel to the hammer? Do you have any specific questions you need answered before you'll take the plunge?

I want contributions from Tony. The last thing we need is a player this late in the game who's contributed too little to give people a clear read.

[Plum]

Wow, Tony. That was real substance right there! You're definitely easier to read after that post! [/sarcasm] Seriously. Assuming Wall-E is Mafia, tell me your top SK suspect and why you suspect that player, for instance. We've gotten so little out of you that if you're town, a good contribution from you (which would aid us in finding scum and also in lessening suspicion on you, hypothetically a townie) might be the difference between a win and a loss.

You should be lynching Tony instead of me.

Uh huh. So why is your vote on me and not him? Why don't you make an actual case, or an actual effort to defend yourself and/or get Tony lynched?

[Plum]

Plum, why didn't you claim?

Major mistake, I guess? I actually was planning on claiming and everything at the beginning of Day 3, but it just ... didn't happen, I suppose.

Sorry about the misvigs. My gut reads were awful at the end. Ugh. Kiro kill was a huge mistake, sorry all: I'd had a slight gut that WALL-E really was town after that lynch and was really upset that I didn't listen too it more - so I went with another gut, that GnKoichi was town (ugh!) - but it seems Kiro would have died anyway, so. . . . I did kill OP because he defended KMD - I thought that if you weren't his buddy, at the very least we wouldn't waste time WIFOMing around why you did it and wasting a day on a mislynch.

But I had this awesome gambit I was going to play if I was left alive with two mafia and the SK - I was going to try an SK claim and manipulate everything into a mafia-town tie. There might have been three competing SK claims. It would have been epic, maybe.

Well, WALL-E, if my gut was off, I suppose yours was, too .

I thought Plum played a perfect town game.

Thanks. I'm now officially 0/2 as Town and 0/2 overall; I can look town and such, but I can't seem to catch scum to save my life. I'm very down on my self esteem - but no! I was turned into candy! Well, a bittersweet ending.

[Plum]

Thank you, Mirth. I did my best. Didn't help enough, but I tried . Learning experiences all.

[Plum]

As for making a case against you... how do I rationalize a hunch in terms you won't attack me for stating? I'd rather just put my vote on you, then after the game is over brag about how onto you I was and why. I won't muddy the water with my very probably silly psychology.

Hmm ?

Also, WALL-E, if you know Myers-Briggs/MBTI theory: are you an ENTP? I have a hunch . . .