Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[LlamaFluff]

Confirming that I am replacing. I will try and get my read done tonight but no promises.

[LlamaFluff]

Starting off here I don’t agree with Atlas in his post about how we leave the random stage. When people try and leave the random stage more forcibly then just waiting for someone to do something that another player considers a scum tell, we gain less from the early part of the game. I would rather have someone call an action scummy that I don’t agree with, then something happen like a claim on page two. It also will give intereactions, which are always good when the game gets to its later stages. There is no way to leave the random stage though without someone jumping at a move, whether it be a small thing, or a major tell. Enough of my views on theory though, I just don’t see what you attempted to accomplish here, and I don’t like how many people flat out agreed with what you had to say about it.

Plus points to Atlas though for being the first one to bring up something that looks like a restriction or just someone being willfully unhelpful though. The exchange between SC and Atlas is interesting here. Atlas is completely correct in saying that attacking the first person to “jump at shadows” is a bad thing. Something needs to occur to get the game out of the RVS, and someone needs to call someone else scummy in order for this to happen. You should judge what was called scummy and why, just not vote for the first person making an attempt to progress the game.

Atlas seems to brush off EGs vote though a bit too fast for what it was. A big part of this game is knowing where everyone stands as much as possible, because then the contradictions and convenient swings become more obvious. Also how sure Atlas was that the vote was not random is odd, especially when you consider that I for one saw absolutely no reason for a serious Cor vote right then.

Page three is ugly, everyone who posts is scummy. SG voting Chephir is scummy given that he didn’t explain how bandwagoning is worse then voting without reason (especially as the wagon was on who SG was voting). Cephrir is scummy for not explaining his vote when asked. EG is scummy for voting MM who is about the only townie looking player on this page by far with little to no (logical) reasoning. Apothecary is scummy for asking if the random stage is over without contributing. Primate is scummy for still being useless intentionally. MM is looking pretty town at this point though, especially when you compare him to everyone else in the game.

ML vote on MM is a wtf moment for me. I don’t see MM following SC at all here. Cor is too concerned about a quick lynch, and should be casting a vote if he thinks someone deserves a vote. Ceph who he is considering voting is nowhere near a lynch at this point in the game, so a vote on him wouldn’t hurt anything and just help get answers and provide a more solid trail of suspicions.

Atlas looks pretty townie again in his next post. While I disagree with the vote on Zeppo, the arguments are legitimate and seem genuine. Still confused about why people are saying MM is following SC. He agreed with him a few times but that isn’t following. Post 87 is pretty scummy. That was a very quick give up of the Ceph vote when he claimed that the only reasoning behind the vote was to get the town out of the random stage.

Zeppo with a “my bad” comment is slightly scummy, especially when that was all that he said in the post. If it was followed up with a current stance on his vote as well as everything else that had happened since then, it would be more acceptable. Cor makes some good points here about the “restriction” and speculation about the game, but still isnt commenting on the actual events of the game, much like quite a few people at this point. SC goes into speculation which is pretty useless. The timing is ironic too as Ceph points out.

MM decides to kill my town read on her with the vote on ML. This is just poor logic really. The fact that a vote in the nth on a player really doesn’t matter, the important part of the vote is the reasoning and if it really is in contrast to what the person seems to of been doing for the past part of the game.

Post 117 is pretty odd. It seemed to be a post that was going to build to a vote on Ceph for his weird actions regarding the selfvote, but then does some weird turn at the end where he goes for what is more of a policy lynch vote of Primate. This feels like you are just leaving a mark on the Ceph wagon to return to if the time is right later in the day or game.

Wow, I had forgotten apothecary was part of the game. Again though he comes back asking if the random stage is over and that’s really it. I really don’t think the Primate wagon is a smart one, it’s a fairly decent policy lynch/vig move and will have to remember it for the future, but especially considering how much has happened during D1, there is no point in now doing a policy lynch. Regardless of flip it really wont give us any information, and just sends the game to night.

That’s through page 6 and all for now.

SC and Apothecary and looking scummy. Atlas and MM are looking town to me.

unvote

if its needed

[LlamaFluff]

For the 10,000th time, I'm not SG!

Not my fault that SG and SC are similar and ive played a few games with an SG. I will finish my read tomorrow, looking forward to seeing if someone has called out Apoc for being scummy or not.

[LlamaFluff]

Continuing at page seven now.

Apoc voting for Cor just to “get discussion moving” is pretty bad, especially considering that Cor has seemed to at least tried to get discussion going by trying to figure out what is happing with the Primate jack-assery. The choice seems arbitrary at best, especially considering how many people look scummier then Cor does. The response from Cor is awesome though, I have to give that much here.

SC votes Ceph for trying to stop the Primate situation, which I want to end just as much as you guys do and I am just rereading. There isnt any content on the Primate wagon, which is a reason for the vote, but that is exactly why the vote is a decent one. No matter what happens in the game we basically have nothing from Primate to go on, and an endgame with him in it would just be painful.

I don’t understand the sudden abandonment of Primates wagon, he obviously isnt going to stop so suddenly it doesn’t matter to the people voting him? Ceph jumping is even more odd then Cor because its admission to of just been playing follow the leader over the whole situation. The discussion and wagon swing here is just weird.

Apoc still is looking scummy with the admission of a page 7 (!?) random vote. At least there is finally commentary on something happening with asking about Primates drawing, even though it basically is just trying to figure out what he thinks of him.

People jump on Zeppo for fishing, and he sound confused about normal and day start game mechanics more then anything else. ML finally calls out Apoc on being useless/scummy, it took someone long enough to realize that he was getting a free ride while looking scummy. Atlas seems to contradict herself a bit by calling Zeppo her top suspect then giving him a newbie pass, yet still is voting him.

Cor makes a good case against SC, and I agree with basically everything that gets said here except for the fact that defending Primate is called a scumtell. He is annoying, but more of a policy vig/lynch instead of a late D1 lynch, so I agree with the defense of him a bit. I hate reading the post war that started right there, but I still side with Cor. One of the biggest points against SC is he really hasn’t made any cases in this game, while remaining overly active. There have been posts saying “hey they aren’t contributing or explaining enough”, but they constantly get abandoned when someone else does something slightly scummy.

I don’t like ML picking out just one part of the case against SC and FoSing Cor for it. There were quite a few decent things in there that seemed to get ignored by him. Zeppo then goes and just ignores everything though, which again I don’t get since this is the first really big exchange in the game. Why people only pay attention to parts of it always confuse me. Apoc again comes in ignoring a majority of the arguments to fence sit on SC, why people are letting this happen is beyond me at this point.

Atlas seems to be hanging on to the Zeppo vote a bit too much right here, since the vote was weakish to start, and given what his views on the case against SC that was recently introduced by Cor is. The discussion on PRs is getting old at this point. I highly doubt Primate had one, I have only seen them in themes, and even then they are very rare.

ML is pulling an Apoc “nothing new, just waiting” thing which is always scummy as hell since the basis of this game is discussion. If no one ever comes up with something new we could just always throw dice to decide lynches. I agree with people jumping on him for it, and don’t like Ceph defending the lack of contribution, which in just about every case is a scummy thing to do.

We again have Apoc coming in to talk about things that don’t pertain to finding scum such as Primates PR, and then he just again comes to no conclusion over Cors alignment. Maybe more then a sentence of analysis would net something here. I looked at his meta though and he seems to always be like this though, regardless of alignment.

I think im about all caught up at this point since this is where I replaced in.

SC and Apoc both look pretty scummy right now, and I will go into more detail on them later. MM, Corvuss and Atlas all look townish to me.

[LlamaFluff]

For the majority of the game, Apoc has been not only a lurker, but scummy on top of that. For some reason people have turned a blind eye to these comments and actions, which is overdue to end.

Following the confirmation post, Apocs first two posts are basically clones of eachother. They both apologize for not being active, and ask if the random stage has ended yet. This shows a level of apathy towards the game since the random stage was obviously over by the second post. There is an extreme unwillingness to do any scumhunting in these two posts, as the second one even asks people to take up the job for him, by asking for any “tangible evidence” that had been revealed so far.

During the debate over Primates PR, Apoc decides it is the best time to random vote for Cor in order to get the game moving. The game WAS moving at that point. Discussion was being accomplished, votes were being made based on evidence that were made with lynch intention. Trying to take away from what was happening at that point in the game by random voting then is very scummy.

The next post affirms that the Cor vote was made soley with the intent to be random, and Apoc makes his first game related discussion. This though is in response to what another player thinks about his alignment. It feels pretty odd that the first thing to be discussed in a game that was as in depth as this one was is anothers opinion on you.

Next we have some attempted discussion about alignments, but they all just end up as fence sitting comments. Apoc cant decide if SC is apathetic town or scum, and later cant decide if Cor is scum riling people up or extreamist townie. So now we are quite a ways into the game, and Apoc is random voting, while haven giving no thoughts on anyones alignment, only some responses to thoughts on his.

As Ythill mentioned, there is a phenomenon here where Apoc shows up just about whenever he is addressed, or an aggressive movement towards him is made, the most recent example being me calling him scummy in my analysis of the game. After quite a few call outs though he does seem to come to conclusions that Cor is scummy and Primate is townie though. Some more in depth reasoning for Cor though would be nice, especially since he is one of the most town players to me.

Not voting quite yet since I want to reread SC again first before I decide where my vote is best placed. It will be one of these two though.

[LlamaFluff]

Moving on to SC (@Ythill – I have the night shift at work tonight, I will look at Atlas more then). I don’t like the Ceph vote from him. SC voted for EG due to an unwillingness to explain a vote, but when Ceph joined the wagon without explaination he moved the vote to him. This just seems a little off since both player commit the same defense. Given that it is the same offense, I don’t understand a motivation to move your vote from one player to the other, unless Cephs vote was somehow scummier. This vote also left with no real explanation to removing it.

Speculation as I have already stated is just bad, the fact that we have someone speculating about third part roles always irks me when there is no evidence for them even existing.

The whole Primate thing is still confusing. SC votes for Cor because he is voting for Primate which SC seems to of called a town distraction tactic more then anything else. It is kind of ironic that by doing this a even bigger distraction emerges from this in the ensuing debate between SC and Cor. I guess his unvote when Cor and Ceph left the wagon proves that it was more of a defense of Primate then anything else, but it just seemed like it was a bit dramatic.

Cors case on SC is good. One of the more damning points that was left out though was that SC has not really been doing any scumhunting in this game. There have been mostly votes that last for a page or two when other players fail to explain their actions well enough. This is good and all getting explainations, but there is a constant abandonment of the current vote one reasoning is explained.

The calling of asking Primate not to be replaced is pretty scummy too. There is no reason for town to ever want a player who is going to voluntarily complicate the game left in it, if there is a way to get them replaced instead. If anything asking for him getting replaced is a small town tell.

This whole game SC has just been jumping from vote to vote on slight reasoning, and abandoning every case when they player corrects or explains what SC asked them too. At this point Zeppo is the only one I have seen him take a more solid stance on, and even there I don’t think it’s a strong scum read by him.

Vote coming tonight after some more reading

[LlamaFluff]

Ok, after a bit more reading, I am going to

Vote Apoc

The last time I started talking about him I got a bit of a response in suspicions, with any luck I will get a response to my case and maybe a case of his own.

[LlamaFluff]

Wait, what?
I've responded to your case! In the final few posts of the previous page!
What purpose does your vote serve when I've already answered?

You can respond more in depth to my 301. Maybe present a case that is a few paragraphs in length. Right now I have no idea where you stand on quite a few vocal issues, which to me is scummy.

[LlamaFluff]

Irony.

Unvote

,

vote

:

StrangerCoug

.

Llamafluff, who are Apocs buddies? Why's he more deserving of your vote than SC?

Part of my reasoning for trying to get reasoning out of him is to help find this out. I have seen games where its been a lurkfest where no one gives any suspects only to be stuck in late game with no one being able to make a case.

I could see SC with him pretty easily since Apoc is one of the only people he has ignored and fence sat on. Maybe Atlas but I still think she is likely town based on play.

I just want to see Apoc take some stances and give opinions mostly. Its pretty rare for lurkers to get killed by scum, so they make it to the endgame and you have nothing to go on. The vote is part based on being scummy, but also part based on planning for later stages of the game. A few decent posts from Apoc though and I probably will be voting SC.

[LlamaFluff]

I guess thats a start. It would be nice to hear why you think SC is scum more then "what others said", and Ceph at all since he is pretty neutral to me right now. The fact that the post was almost just like I expected it makes me a little paranoid, but I might just be naive so who really knows. Just elaborate a bit if you can to keep me from going insane over if I am letting this go too easily or not.

unvote
vote StrangerCoug

[LlamaFluff]

In particular, I would like to hear your top 3 list and what do you think of Zeppo?

Zeppo007 is actually still my #1 suspect and current vote for the rolefishing thing already discussed.

I still think this is a weak case. That really wasnt rolefishing rereading it, I would call it sarcasam before anything else. There are no roles that will give an investigation result during D1, so to me it was more of a "well you cant back it up with a role, so what was it" statement.

@Cor - I am not completely sure what you are getting at in the last post. You seem suddenly conflicted over if you should be voting for SC or not given that he isnt defending himself, and no one is really defending him. During D1, there are no definant links to follow since we dont know any roles yet. Once roles start showing up we can work on that section of the game. D1 we should be lynching the player who seems scummiest independent of interactions, since we may be making false assumptions of other players, and having that cause our vote to land in the wrong place. If SC is the scummiest, vote him. If he isnt, dont.

[LlamaFluff]

More votes for Atlas please.

No. I don't buy his case, and asking for more votes on somebody is tantamount to rushing the day, which is scummy.

Unvote: Zeppo007
Vote: Ythill

So Ythill asking you to vote Atlas is the scummiest thing in the game? What happened to the case on Zeppo?

[LlamaFluff]

Doctor here.

And now the feeling of being paranoid sets in. Any breadcrumbs?

unvote

to prevent a quick hammer

[LlamaFluff]

Rereading... I like Apoc a little more then I did to start so am not too sure anymore, and am not about to lynch a doctor D1.

[LlamaFluff]

I am however concerned with Ythill concentrating on Atlas. It just seems to be a bit odd how he wants more people to vote him, when I believe there are people who need more pressure.

Wait... I'm supposed to vote based on your beliefs, not mine? How does differing from the pack make me scummy? Chances are, if there's a D1 majority, there's scum in it.

Your suspicion seems ingenuous and your stance on SC's claim is just plain wrong.

unvote; vote Apothecary

Let's see where this leads...

This is a bigger tell then the Atlas case? Just seems like a pretty quick swing, especially since Apoc had two other votes on him earlier.

Still reading, should have a vote by the end of the weekend

[LlamaFluff]

Still rereading, apart from Apoc, EG (elmo now?) and Ceph look a little off. I still think that Atlas is probably town.

[LlamaFluff]

I am actually going to

Vote Ythill

.

The whole Primate situation is mostly confusing, and I am just willing to more or less write it off as "willing anti-town behavior" untill we can start making some connections between people.

When you pay attention to the thought process of Ythill though, there are a few things that just dont quite fit to me.

When he joined the LoS presented was Atlas, Apoc and MM. It may partially be that I got a town read of Atlas and MM that this was uncomfortable to me, but difference of suspicions does not imply someone being scum.

Quickly Ythill launched an attack on Atlas for what seems to be key points of; slinging mud (which was later written off as possible null), buddying, theory discussion, trying to get Primate lynched on alignment instead of uselessness, using a false dellima and abandoning the wagon.

First off, I think theory discussion being put as a scum tell is just stupid. There is nothing wrong at all about discussion theory in a game, even in the early stages. Using theory to distract from a larger point is, but that did not occur. Buddying is weak at best too, town tries to hook up with town in order to get more pull in the game, or at least it is something that I always attempt to do.

Calling someone for slinging mud and then "temporarily" writing it off is something that I really dont like. If its a tell, its a tell. Bringing something up early, dismissing it, but still leaving it as an option to return to just sits bad. When you dismiss it due to not knowing his playstyle, it is fairly simple to pick up again later when needed. Things should either be called a scumtell and pushed, or just not mentioned at all. Creating things that are weak or can be used later in a case feels like padding, and a failsafe for later if its ever actually needed.

I also dont know how much you can prosecute people for about how they acted about the Primate situation. There were points when I was catching up where I would of just prefered a policy lynch type attitude over anything else. This also somewhat can be put into the "is anti-town meta scummy?". There are players who always are scummy, and are lynch bait, Primate is obviously one of them. If I knew that Primate was never going to be replaced and would continue acting like that, I would of pushed that lynch as the right one since keeping him around hurts the town.

Going through the entire Atlas WoW argument they had and continually picking out why I dont like the case is something I wont do, but basically I think the Atlas case that Ythill has been pushing is weak, and some parts like the mudslinging were designed as fodder for a case if ever needed.

What I dont like more is what happened after SC claimed.

While I will agree that Apoc had a wierd response to the claim, its more of a bad idea then a scumtell. Having a bad idea or plan does not mean a player is scum, and the fact that Apoc is getting votes for this is somewhat concerning.

Even more troubling to me though is that this all occured after I had been pushing Apoc for a while. During this time, my case was entirely ignored by Ythill, even though he did have Apoc on his LoS, and Apoc was at a higher vote number then Atlas was. If Ythill had abandoned the Atlas case then and went for the Apoc case, it would of kept a wagon of a suspect of his at the second vote getter, and closer to SC, who Ythill had at town.

Waiting for the wagon to dry up a bit before this movement was made, and saying that it occured given the lack of people wanting an Atlas wagon just doesnt fit. For the entire time he had been here, there was mroe willingness for an Apoc lynch, and less for a Atlas lynch, yet Ythill waited to move to the Apoc wagon untill after it had dried up a bit. This just doesnt make too much sense to me.

If you want one of so many lynched, and no one is biting on one wagon while people are willfully pushing the case of your second suspect, the logical thing to do is to vote your second suspect. Not to keep hanging on to your top suspect untill the second wagon dries up a bit.

[LlamaFluff]

Calling someone for slinging mud and then "temporarily" writing it off is something that I really dont like.

Can you cite where I did this? I think you might have misinterpreted something.

Here

Atlas has been slinging lots of mud, trying to find a place where it will stick. It

could

be an aspect of his early game play and therefore null, but time will tell.

You called it null but at the same time can easily change it later

I also dont know how much you can prosecute people for about how they acted about the Primate situation. There were points when I was catching up where I would of just prefered a policy lynch type attitude over anything else.

There is a difference between a policy lynch and an alignment lynch. My point was that a bunch of people were either pursuing a policy lynch or at least applying policy-based pressure and then Atlas tried to push that into an alignment-based situation. I don't understand how you don't see that as scummy.

I think its partially an anti-town vs scummy debate. In minis I am not too willing to policy lynch someone like this, but a large game I am fine with just killing someone like Primate in the first few pages if they wont stop. If Atlas calls anti-town actions scummy, I dont care, but dont agree entirely. I just think that Atlas was trying to figure out why Primate would be doing what he did, and scum motivations do make more sense then town ones.

Will finish responding later, have to head out now

[LlamaFluff]

Atlas has been slinging lots of mud, trying to find a place where it will stick. It

could

be an aspect of his early game play and therefore null, but time will tell.

You called it null but at the same time can easily change it later

Oh. That wasn't me dismissing it. It was me admitting that there

might

be another explanation. Note how I put “might” in italics... same way I did with “could” in the original quote.

I was talking about possibilities, not conclusions. Fact is, I could be wrong about Atlas, so I try to look for holes in my own evidence.

You still seemed to present it in the sense of you wanted it mentioned but called it weak. Even with the italicised could, it showed more of a "there also might be this" attitude. When you make a case you dont defend the person or add filler, that just makes the case weaker so it wasnt for either of those reasons. When you add in conditional parts to the case like that, especially when the "could" was never greatly elaborated on, they just seem like ways to necro a dying case later.

I think its partially an anti-town vs scummy debate.

I don't buy this. In #157, Atlas said. "Assuming it is voluntary I see Primate's play style as both anti-town and scummy." This means that, no matter how subjective the difference between anti-town and scummy is, Atlas had differentiated between them and found Primate

scummy

.

I just think your overall case and even inital reason for voting him is scummy and a bit off. In your post that you initally voted you said

I am however concerned with Ythill concentrating on Atlas. It just seems to be a bit odd how he wants more people to vote him, when I believe there are people who need more pressure.

Wait... I'm supposed to vote based on your beliefs, not mine? How does differing from the pack make me scummy? Chances are, if there's a D1 majority, there's scum in it.

Your suspicion seems ingenuous and your stance on SC's claim is just plain wrong.

unvote; vote Apothecary

Let's see where this leads...

It seems like the main reasoning was the stance on SCs claim (which you claimed wasnt a reason before), and that his suspicions were ingenuous. Firstly, I really dont understand what you mean by ingenuous suspicions here so I may be partially lost. The bringing up his stance on SC though is what makes me think that you voted him partially on him calling SC "town fakeclaiming".

Just the whole timing of the situation seemed off a bit to me though. I just get more of the feeling like you were trying to steer the SC wagon onto Apoc by casting your vote when you did. The SC wagon was obviously dead at this point, and there was some murmering for a SC wagon. At this time, instead of trying to push the Atlas wagon to the people who were now looking for a new top suspect, you hop to the much easier wagon without spending time trying to convince these people. That is what I mean when I say your vote just seemed really opportune to me compared with what was going on before SC claimed, compared to after. His claim seemed to make you move from Atlas to Apoc.

[LlamaFluff]

When you make a case you dont defend the person or add filler, that just makes the case weaker so it wasnt for either of those reasons.

How do you know what I do? You know how you play the game. I make my cases the way I do to

help me determine

if someone is scum, not to craft an airtight argument that neither scum nor town would prevail against.

I dont try and make cases against people who I dont have a solid read on, or think might be town or anything to that matter. That is kept for my mental notes, or if someone asks my opinion on a player. When I do make a case, its as airtight as I can make it, because I am trying to get scum lynched. People poke holes, I respond, repeat untill I either change my mind of they get lynched.

I honesty dont understand making a case on a null read player, and I feel like by saying that your cases are made

to help determine

if someone is scum you are trying to relieve yourself of some of the responsibility for anyone flipping town. I love using "you did this at this point" arguments later in the game, and am not about to let you sell your actions short.

As for the rest of the case, look how often you used "seem"... my favorite one was where you were trying to accuse me of preparing to do something that hasn't been done by anyone, because I "seem" like I'm

going to

do it. Seeming is made up of (my) action and (your) projection, and your PoV

seems

to be skewed.

I am not you, but I will interpret what your doing to the best of my ability. If I think you are doing something scummy, I will say what it is and why I think its scummy. I got a lot of feeling that you were setting stuff up with the move to Apoc when you did, the timing was just really wrong compared to what I thought would happen there. Why did you not try and convince the people coming off the SC wagon that Atlas was scum? You have mentioned the fact that people were rejecting the case, but some were doing so in favor of the SC vote, that was now not going to happen.

It seems like the main reasoning was the stance on SCs claim (which you claimed wasnt a reason before), and that his suspicions were ingenuous.

There's the "s" word again. So, when I say something is

just plain wrong

, as opposed to disingenuous, wouldn't most people think of those two things as opposites. Thing A is a lie, thing B is

just

wrong.

Why did you vote for Apoc then? I really couldnt find any solid reasons except for the ones that I already pointed out. When I have to start scrounging around for reasons your vote landed on him, chances are it was a weak vote.

By the way, where are Elmo, MM and Atlas? I dont remember too much from those three lately.

[LlamaFluff]

I dont try and make cases against people who I dont have a solid read on, or think might be town or anything to that matter. That is kept for my mental notes, or if someone asks my opinion on a player. When I do make a case, its as airtight as I can make it, because I am trying to get scum lynched.

That's what you call the case on me? "As airtight as [you] can make it?" Remind me to never buy scuba gear from you.

No such thing as an airtight case unless its coming from a sanity confirmed cop.

I honesty dont understand making a case on a null read player...

Where did I say I made a case on a null player? I thought Atlas was scum, I still believe there is evidence that suggests his alignment as scum. However, unlike you, I realize that there is sometimes a difference between what I believe and the truth. So I attempt to determine the truth in spite of what I believe at any given time.

Im stubborn when I think im right, so when people stop suspecting someone who they obviously have at their top pick, it really bothers me. I dont refuse to listen to reasoning, but I never try and add null or undecided tells into my cases since it damages the strength of them. You weigh them beforehand, and then decide to move forward or not.

I'll also note that you have admitted you don't understand this, which makes me wonder how you can reasonably claim that something you don't understand somehow leads you to a conclusion.

Nice way of making my wording null my point. When I said that, what I ment was that I see no town motives for weakening your own case. Given that there are no visable town motives to me, that leaves me at the conclusion that I am now pushing.

...and I feel like by saying that your cases are made to help determine if someone is scum you are trying to relieve yourself of some of the responsibility for anyone flipping town.

If you want to talk about your feelings, call your therapist.

... again, you are dodging my points due to wording. By saying they are more aids for you then for others, you bring down the ammount of blame that can be put on you for mislynches, but still claim credit for any scum lynch.

If I think you are doing something scummy, I will say what it is and why I think its scummy.

That's fine, but realize that you are ignoring my explanations and stubbornly looking at things in the scummiest light.

How do I even defend against this? Want me to remake a new case making you in a scummier light to prove you wrong or to just make a case vouching your towniness? Im serious here. I dont think I am looking at this in the scummiest light.

Seriously, what if I said that your earlier misrepresentation

seems

like you trying to discredit me to save your buddy Rx? Is it possible? Sure. If I look at it in the scumnmiest light, does it

seem

probable? Sure. But there are other explanations and, if I attacked you for it I would be doing the town a disservice.

This is saying that B is true because A is true, so lets do action B when A has not been proven true yet. Completely different then anything I am doing.

Why did you not try and convince the people coming off the SC wagon that Atlas was scum?

They are as capable as anyone of reading through my evidence on Atlas and making their decisions. The lack of pressure on him demonstrated that he was not going to support a viable wagon at that time. Just because you follow your (incorrect) gut

ad nauseum

does not mean it is good play, nor that others will play the same way.

First off, I have no clue what ad nauseum means. The fact that the biggest wagon just stalled though and that is when you decided to change your vote just doesnt sit well with me. Again, I am very stubborn when I think that I figured something out. These people were on a different wagon, so naturally would reject the Atlas one, as if they were pushing both someone would likely call it scummy. I think that I was the only one who explicitly said that I didnt like the Atlas case, or had a town read on her. There were people who were looking for a new top suspect, and you comprimised to a new wagon.

Rx is a lurker, which is only enough to make me look at him closely, but that scrutiny has revealed a few tells. Others have already mentioned some of these and I will not bother repeating. What bothers me most is his timing dichotomy. When he pops in unbidden, Rx asks things like whether we are past random voting, which makes it seem like he is not paying attention to the game. But when he’s called out, like in #174, he shows up within two hours to post a coherent defense (in #176). Coincidence? Maybe, but I smell a rat. I also don’t like the way Rx seemed unnecessarily defensive in #227, clearly responding to the attacks on Mac's prod-avoidance.

~

We should move on. There's no point in discussing this

ad nauseum

right now. We need another wagon or three to build the record for tomorrow...

~

Wait... I'm supposed to vote based on your beliefs, not mine? How does differing from the pack make me scummy? Chances are, if there's a D1 majority, there's scum in it.

Your suspicion seems ingenuous...

And since then I've found other reasons to suspect Rx, moving him up on my suspect list.

I kind of more was hoping for a bulleted list type argument. From this I gather that you suspect him for 1) Lurking untill called on 2) ad nauseum (still dont know what that is) 3) suspecting you for voting Atlas 4) Ingenuous suspicions.

I can agree with the first point. Its why I suspected him at first. The third point is pretty iffy, people have different things they consider scum tells, and avoiding major wagons is a scum tell to me which you were flirting with there. The fourth point is bull though unless Apoc specifically said "oh yeah I wasnt serious about them" or something to that nature. You have been saying I am looking at things in the scummiest light, but to say that his efforts are fake is a big strech to make anything he does look scummy.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm stubborn when I think im right, so when people stop suspecting someone who they obviously have at their top pick, it really bothers me.

So your suspicion boils down to the fact that you suspect me because I do not play like you do. Also, I didn't stop suspecting Atlas. He's moved down my list due to some of his defenses, but he's still a suspect.

May be partially true. I forget who said it but it was "One of Llamas main problems is that he thinks everyone should play like him as town". Regardless, I think abandoning the Atlas case at the time you did is definantly a scum tell.

Nice way of making my wording null my point. When I said that, what I ment was that I see no town motives for weakening your own case.

Actually, I misunderstood you. And again, your suspicions can be traced back to our difference in play. I believe that honesty in mentioning a tell that could be either scum- or null- is important because it helps to avoid mislynches.

Bringing information that does not further a lynch on a suspect does nothing but make your weak caser and more then likely, not get the player lynched. This makes you look active, yet there is no mislynch blame. I have used this tactic before as scum in a very large game, and flew under the radar for a long period of time without people suspecting me given that I was scumhunting.

...again, you are dodging my points due to wording.

No, I am not. I will not seriously address an accusation based on your feelings, your gut, or what "seems" to be happening.

You have hypothesized why I might act as I have as scum. I have explained why I acted as I have as town. Now, either you or wrong or I am lying, but the burden of proof lies with you here. Simply repeating that you still "feel" a certain way is not a factual argument.

There is never any real "proof" in this game. You make arguments about who is scum given their actions, and eventually their connections as well. I have come up with reasoning as to why I think you are scum, presented it, you have defended it, and now we just do the back and forth dance. The main difference of what I have presented against you and what you have presented against Atlas is some wording. If I cut out all of the "feel" and "seems" and put things like "is" in, it would be pretty similar.

By saying they are more aids for you then for others, you bring down the ammount of blame that can be put on you for mislynches, but still claim credit for any scum lynch.

Again, looking at me in the scummiest light. You have concluded that I am scum b/c of crap reasoning and now will accept any evidence to prove that conclusion. Look what you have done here, shifting your argument. First, I was scummy for supposedly setting up an attack for later. Now that I have explained my actions as intended to avoid a potential mislynch, you accept my general explanation but attribute scummy motives to it.

I dont know what it was for. That action you took to me

is[/s] scummy, and it can be used for one of the two mentioned reasons. Setting up mislynches, lessing responsibility for a case or thinking out loud. The last one just seems perposterous to me, especially compared to the other things that you have done.

There were people who were looking for a new top suspect, and you comprimised to a new wagon.

Repeating your flawed theories does not make them true. Atlas was my #1 but nobody was interested in putting pressure on him. Rx was my #2 but did something scummy. I moved my vote from Atlas to Rx right after he did the scummy thing. That's the whole story, the motives you are attibuting are fantasy.

Why didnt you try to move the SC voters at least? Assumptions over peoples actions regarding your top suspect, especially assumptions that people wont listen, dont make any sense.

I kind of more was hoping for a bulleted list type argument.

• other factors voiced previously (I'd have to look these up again, b/c I don't remember them exactly, I just remember that I agreed with others' points made before I replaced in)
• lurking
• timing that demonstrates that his claims of not knowing what is going on are false
• overdefensiveness in that he defended himself against an attack meant for someone else
• suspicions that do not seem genuine

These are the tells

before

my vote. Things have happened after my vote to make me even more suspicious but, since we're talking about my vote here, I'll refrain from listing them. Another reason for my vote (second post in the quote) was that we needed a few more wagons to build the record and there were a few people who suspected Rx.

Why is overdefensiveness a scum tell?

You have been saying I am looking at things in the scummiest light, but to say that his efforts are fake is a big strech to make anything he does look scummy.

A big stretch? Hardly. His suspicions do not follow the flow of evidence, they are not backed up by a reasonable line of thought, and he is quick to retract/reinstate them when it benefits him in an argument. I can't believe that you, of all people, don't agree with me. After all, you are a self-admitted stubborn player who thinks it's scummy when people play differently than you and Rx is a flag flapping in the wind.

I dont think its scummy when someone plays different from me exactly. When someone does something I see scummy though and uses "its my playstyle" type defenses I dont like at all. Apoc does look a little odd I will admit, and is definantly not my top pick for town, the actions that others have taken though make me think he actually might be town. Still dont quite understand how suspicions arent "genuine". If I have learned one thing from this game, some people are really bad at making cases and couldnt make one to save their life (literally in some cases), there are some people who are pure follower, backing down is a point though. Determining if the case is just bad or BS is the bigger thing here to me.

@Jazz - I dont get a number Also what is your scale? It seems low is town and high is scum, but what is the upper end of the scale?

[LlamaFluff]

I forget who said it but it was "One of Llamas main problems is that he thinks everyone should play like him as town".

I said that about Corvus. Is that what you mean?

Found where someone said it about me, but game is ongoing so I will withhold for now.

I have used this tactic before as scum...

Which has no bearing whatsoever. If you want to reference past games, how about looking for what

I've

done as scum.

I am just making a point that its a pretty valid and successful tactic to be playing, and I saw some reminence of it in your play.

There is never any real "proof" in this game.

Take "proof" lightly if you will, but something stronger than empty repetition. The burden is still on you. I can only tell the truth. As accuser, it is you who must convince others that your theory is more likely than my explanation.

Not too many have been giving input one way or another which is frustrating me to no end here. I would be much happier even if everyone just said "stop being stupid" to me so I know if I need to try and explain things another way or just give up for now. Being ignored when I am attempting to make a point is not something I am good with.

The main difference of what I have presented against you and what you have presented against Atlas is some wording. If I cut out all of the "feel" and "seems" and put things like "is" in, it would be pretty similar.

Look at what you've said. You think I'm scum, right? So my case against Atlas must be contrived. Yet you claim that your case is

not

contrived by saying it is similar to my case on Atlas.

Let me explain this very carefully. I am getting annoyed that you are casting aside parts of my case due to word use, if I just dropped all the "emotional" words from it, my case looks similar in wording to your case on Atlas. If I added in "emotional" words to your case, it would supposedly invalidate most points to you.

Not only is this an invalid statement about your case, but it heavily suggests that you know me to be town, because you are arguing from the Yth-town point of view against supposed Yth-scum. This is the first real scum-tell I've seen you make, but it's a big one.

Dont get this really. I called you town because by adding "emotions" to your case I can make parts of it "invalid"?

dont know what it was for. That action you took to me

is[/s] scummy, and it can be used for one of the two mentioned reasons. Setting up mislynches, lessing responsibility for a case or thinking out loud. The last one just seems perposterous to me, especially compared to the other things that you have done.

Awesome. First it was one theory. Then another. Now it could be either one. Your case is falling apart before our eyes.

I dont understand at all how you can call that move pro-town. I have tried looking at it from multiple angles and I dont buy that it was just you "thinking out loud". The other two theories look a whole lot better to me. Nice to say my case is crumbling though when this is not the only point against you.

Why didnt you try to move the SC voters at least?

Why don't you come up with questions I haven't already answered? It's still empty repetition if you rephrase it.

Probably because I dont understand it, at all. Period. When someone does something that goes against all logic that I can come up with, and shifts a wagon at an odd time, something is wrong.

Why is overdefensiveness a scum tell?

In most cases it is not. However, in this case, Rx was responding to an attack made against someone else. It was stated that someone else's particular behavior was scummy, Rx then made a defense for that behavior even though nobody had pointed out him doing it. It made him sound guilty.

Still dont get it a whole lot. As any alignment I try and kill any suspicion coming against me pretty early, and it works out well. What post was this in?

...the actions that others have taken though make me think he actually might be town.

What actions?

Timing mostly. I pushed the wagon a bit when I replaced in to get him kickstarted in helping us out. Someone joined the wagon with me, and it stalled out in favor of the SC wagon. What happened next is what makes me start thinking he is town though. No one really pushed him hard while the SC wagon was going on, but there was no real rejection of the wagon. When the SC wagon died, there was a

really

quick move to him. If he was scum I would think that someone would at least of tried to deflect from him a bit.

If I have learned one thing from this game, some people are really bad at making cases and couldnt make one to save their life...

Why would you say that making a weak case is a null-tell while giving ground in an argument? Hmmmmmm...

I dont think that I am giving ground here. I am saying that Apoc might not be a great case maker, we all have played with players who arent. People who cant make good cases not being able to make a good case is a null tell. People making a bad or BS case is a scumtell.

Other people though, please weigh in a bit... this is getting annoying that no one really seems to care about us here.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama doesn't think I'm bussing. He finds Atlas townie (too many cites to list), and don't forget that, when he voted me, Llama had this to say about my case on Atlas...

<cut>

Question is... is Llama now arguing that my case was valid (like his is) or that his case is invalid (like mine was) if the "emotional" words are removed? Fact is... it doesn't matter. The simple existance of the question reveals that his arguments are either fabricated or wrong.

Wow, you seriously are missing my point this much? Multiple times you have dismissed parts of my case because of my word choice, not because of what I am agruing. This really pisses me off because I get the feeling that you are trying to take down my case by refuting how I am presenting it instead of what I am saying.

The point I am trying to make is that if I presented my case the exact same as yours, that the way you recieved it would be entirely different. If your case was presented the same way that I did, it could just as easily be "refuted" by Atlas for calling bad word usage. This is what I am tried of having to deal with and the point I am trying to make.

Still dont get how I "slipped" at all. You are saying my case is bad because I am using emotion words. I turn around and say that this is a poor point since I could pull up your Atlas case, add emotions and then it makes it "bad" to you. Therefore, the use of words isnt a point, since addition and removal changes how you view the strength of a case.

@SC - You do realize that was what I said that Ythills case on Atlas was right? Either you misinterpreted something, or you need to explain more.

[LlamaFluff]

Still waiting for Llama's simplified summary before I comment.

I think Ythill is scum due to (very simplified due to lack of time)

- Weak case on Atlas
-- Addition of null tells
-- Abandonment of case
- The timing of the move to Apoc
-- SC wagon had just died freeing votes
-- Apoc had stronger lynch following earlier
- Dismissal/downplay of parts of my case due to wording

[LlamaFluff]

Apoc is offically wierd with that comment on no lynch > town lynch. The move of Ythill right there was odd though. Deadline is still about two weeks away, there is no need to comprimise a D1 vote at this point.

Right now though I am just more waiting for Ceph, MM, Elmo and the Atlas replacement to catch up. The game seems to be about four or five people talking right now, a moer global involvement would be nice.

[LlamaFluff]

First, lets not hammer untill Jazz comes back ok? We dont go to night when someone has been missing for as long as she has.

Second, everyone outlining their top few suspects is double edged. I did this once in a large game as scum (SC should remember that game), and gained a huge advantage as it let the scum know who the town suspected heavily, future wagon possibilities, and who was in control the most. At the same time though it does force people to make a concrete pick on who scum is, which prevents easy hops. In this case though I think most people have a pretty good idea of who most people do suspect.

Just no one put this day to rest before Jazz comes back. My posting will stay a bit limited over the next couple weeks due to finals, but I still should be able to post on a daily basis, maybe just not as indepth.

[LlamaFluff]

Ythill does seem to like his "slips"... I dont really see this one on qwints either. It more seems like that if Apoc flips town you have another case to be working on. Nice to see Jazz back though

[LlamaFluff]

Sorry for letting attention in this game slip a bit. I still like a Ythill wagon to the Apoc one, but that idea really doesnt seem to popular anymore. Concerning though is that we are pretty far into the game, and still have four people not voting, Ythill has explained his reasoning for holding them, but thats just one.

@Apoc, Ceph, Jazz - Who is your top suspect, and what is preventing a vote?

No matter what happens though we need to hear more from Jazz, MM and Elmo before deadline.

[LlamaFluff]

@qwints - What makes the timing odd?

Also deadline I think is Thursday, so people actually voting would be nice. @Ceph - Would you prefer a MM or Apoc lynch?

Hoping Jazz catches up soon

[LlamaFluff]

Im pretty confused and tired right now but just want to try and figure some stuff out.

Ythill - You claim qwints/Atlas is scum given that he showed knowledge that Apoc is town in 630? I read it as coaching but not necessarily scum-town coaching since he nearly said "do A B C and I will unvote you". I dont see the motivation of scum telling town what to do in order to not get lynched.

SC - If you are going to live on borrowed time please scumhunt, or at least give the illusion of scumhunting

Ceph - No vote yet? Why?

Jazz - Hows catching up going? We are close to deadline.

Apoc - Who is scum?

[LlamaFluff]

SC - If you are going to live on borrowed time please scumhunt, or at least give the illusion of scumhunting

And you should not be telling anyone to be giving the illusion of scumhunting in lieu of actual scumhunting.

HoS: LlamaFluff

.

I have someone who I thought was scum claim doctor and no one want to lynch them, now they are sitting back saying "oh I think this person is scum" and thats about it. If you are scum, cool keep doing it. If you are the doctor though, START HUNTING. You are going to get mislynched if you dont, for the record saying "player X is scum" is not scumhunting.

Also since when MM? You keep saying "Apoc and llama", MM gets pressure and now you think he is a good lynch too?

[LlamaFluff]

Ythill - You claim qwints/Atlas is scum given that he showed knowledge that Apoc is town in 630? I read it as coaching but not necessarily scum-town coaching since he nearly said "do A B C and I will unvote you". I dont see the motivation of scum telling town what to do in order to not get lynched.

You must see something in what I've brought up, because you're not spouting the Ythill-is-scum-protecting-his-buddy theory I'd expect from you at this point.

I sort of see what you are getting it here is why, but with this whole circle of suspicions going on I really am lost. At this point its something like you think I am scum who slipped and said Atlas/qwints is town, and Apoc is my buddy, but qwints just slipped and said Apoc is town and I just am trying to look for something to get a better read on what exactly is happening here.

I think the best thing for me to do here is just to go finish up my work, get some sleep and wake up hoping to of come to a conclusion I trust about whats going on here.

Like I said, I dont see the complete scum-qwints town-apoc motivation for the coaching thing, as with a deadline where apart from apoc, MM is the only real person who could get wagoned, but that would mean a likely qwints-apoc scum team and MM town. So im a burnt out from finals and confused with all the interactions circling around here.

At deadline, I would be more inclined to vote for Apoc then for qwints just given my early reads on the two players, plus either of them would really help get a solid read on the alignment of others since they seem to be the center of attention.

@Apoc - Vote please?
@SC and Ceph - Is MM or Apoc scummier? Why?

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
vote SC

This should be able to swing by deadline

[LlamaFluff]

I dont know how long night is going to last, but I dont expect to have any access from the 21st to the 26th.

Noted. Nights are usually 72 hours as mentioned in the second post.

[LlamaFluff]

Back from vacation and just finished a 14 hour drive. I hope to get something up tonight but I dont know if I will. Tomorrow at the latest

[LlamaFluff]

Inital thoughts would be Ythill coming up town, yet alone investigative makes me feel a bit useless in this game, a little less paranoid though about a conspiracy theory I had though. I do agree with what a lot of people are saying that apoc doesnt look too scummy anymore since SC flipped scum, and the fact that ML is pushing for that lynch is setting off quite a few bells to me.

The turnaround of sudden pressure on OGML also is a bit surprising since I saw MM as fairly town when I replaced in, and really dont see OGML-scum taking a wagon off of Apoc and others onto SC the way he did. I do agree with him that Jazz looks fairly town after a reread too.

Right now I am thinking Ceph-ML are remaining scum, there is a little concern eating at me about Cor with that OGML vote which I really dont like, but given how he played D1 I still have to put him as town.

Not going to vote yet because I see Ceph is at L-1, and I want to get entirely situated with this game before I send it to night. Sometime tomorrow I should have a vote out and some more concrete thoughts.

[LlamaFluff]

Im not sure what I can say here about Ceph without just saying what OGML has already put up about him, and I pretty much am in agreement about Ceph being scum at this point when you go back and look at his interactions with SC during the first part of the day. There is a lot of acknowlagement that SC was very scummy, but not a whole lot of push to actually get him lynched (his 4, 29, 42, 48).

The case against OGML is pretty BS too. I had the read of MM in my top few town when I replaced in and that never really tanked too much. The fact that OGML decided to move a wagon from Apoc onto the claimed doctor who flipped RB when it was pretty obvious that Apoc was going to be the lynch for the day to me means that the only way OGML could concievably be scum is if Apoc is also scum since an SC flip makes them both look really really town to me. The entire argument seems to be "it was a bus", that is a weak ass arguement.

At the same time though, I dont like the way that qwints got on the Ceph wagon too much. It just seems too much like he decided that Ceph is going to be the lynch and just decided to go ahead and bus. I agree with Elmo about getting him to elaborate on what his reasoning for the vote on Ceph is before the game goes to night, so will not be hammering Ceph at this point, even though I am fairly sure that it is going to be a scum lynch.

And now a few questions

@Ceph - Who (apart from OGML) looks like scum?
@Corv - What made you decide to change from OGML to Ceph?
@ML - Do you think Ceph is scum? If so why not as much as Apoc?
@qwints - Can you elaborate on the Ceph vote?
@Apoc - Thoughts on Ceph case? OGML case? ML voting you?

[LlamaFluff]

Now is a good time for ceph to be lynched.

I agree but I still would like qwints to elaborate a bit on his vote, maybe give some thoughts on something apart from a one liner on Ceph. I keep trying to figure something out and there is just a piece missing.

[LlamaFluff]

LF, why do you think Macavity's scum(my)? What's your opinion of Atlas - not the role i.e. Qwints, the posts made by the player Atlas previously? Also.. why llama fluff?

ML comes off as scummy mostly due to two things, firstly the way he played the SC wagon during D1. I dont think was ever actually a part of the wagon vote wise, but there were comments (like his 33) that make me think otherwise. When the SC wagon came to a head near the end of the day, he stayed off it and continued to push the Apoc wagon which was the only other viable one. It seems like he made his mark on the SC wagon but chose not to cash in it.

Second would be the early push for Apoc today. I really dont see Apoc flipping scum after the strength that SC pushed for that lynch when there was a town wagon available in Ythill, and the MM wagon which both seemed to hold water. Also most of the posts from ML yesterday seemed to suggest a SC-MM pairing more then anything else, so trading MM for Apoc today when SC was proven scum looks wierd.

Rest is just about process of elimination. I think OGML and Apoc are def town. Jazz, qwints and you are pretty close based on actions and just this gut read I have from Jazz. Corv has gone back and forth for me, D1 he looked really town, D2 I got a few warning flags up. Makes me want to look into closer but I really havent had the time to put him under the magnifine glass. Basically just leaves Ceph and if that doesnt end the game, ML. By the way if Ceph is last scum I am going to be pissed I waited for qwints.

I am not completely sure of what you mean about thoughts on Atlas. I had a town read off her during D1. Her post 10 I thought was a good one for early suspicions. The annoyance and questions about Primate being a dick seem genuine as well, trying to figure out exactly what it was if it existed (even though I guess scum can be inquisitive about a restriction). Maybe its due to quite a few similar thought process and suspects, maybe its due to Ythill thinking Atlas was scum. I just got a really strong gut read on her day one, and I dont usually get too many town gut reads. Not even sure if this is what you asked though, I think it is though.

Also I dont really remember why llamafluff. I have been using that name on various things for about four or five years.

[LlamaFluff]

Getting close to confident enough to put my vote on ceph. Still would like to hear what Jazz got from her reread to hopefully further the read I have going on her there.

[LlamaFluff]

I´m confused. Why are we still on day two?

I just want the reread from Jazz, I have her as town right now and would rather get a little more information about the game from my town reads before I put my vote on Ceph.

[LlamaFluff]

I also have this question mark about LF. I am curious why (going from memory) you said ML going back to Apoth is a "huge black mark" against him, it doesn't strike me as scummy rather than a disagreement with you. This is moreso because I think he's quite likely town.

I just dont think SC would of pushed his scum buddy Apoc the way he did when there were other options available. There was the early Atlas wagon, there was my push on Ythill, there was the talk of an MM wagon. SC just kind of sat on the Apoc wagon though the entire time, without really showing any intention of ever moving his vote. Due to this I just have to put Apoc as town, I dont see it as bussing.

ML going back to Apoc while ignoring the SC -> Apoc pushing. The Apoc -> SC connections primarily consist of "wishy washy" which could be applied Apoc -> anyone really. Apoc scum just doesnt seem right, and they way ML just dives right into that suspicion feel wrong.

[LlamaFluff]

I agree that Apoc is less likely to be scum because of SC's interactions with him, but I don't see why ML's suspicion "feels wrong" as opposed to a townie being misguided. It seemed quite natural, from what I recall, not like he dived into it... what specifically do you think he's less likely to have done if he were town?

Done more research on how the tell he is using to show the Apoc -> SC connection can be applied to Apoc -> most people, and use more of the SC -> Apoc connection given that in his post 58 had almost twice as many Apoc -> SC interactions then the other way around. When you just look at the Apoc -> SC interactions it does look like scum buddy interactions, but SC -> Apoc/other suspects makes Apoc look very town.

It just seems like ML is way tunneled in on Apoc due to ignoring most of the intereactions between SC and other players. He either is tunneled or lazy if he is town. Also I dont get how it is "quite natural" when no other player who was voting Apoc during D1 has continued to vote Apoc D2.

@ML - Can you explain why interactions between SC and other players apart from Apoc make Apoc scum? Primarily focusing on SC-other wagon possibilities (Ythill, MM, Atlas).

Still waiting for Jazz to reread before I vote.

[LlamaFluff]

mod

can you prod Jazz?

[LlamaFluff]

Somebody wake me up when this day ends.

I really want Jazz to do that reread she has been promising for what... a week? I am starting to get to the point I just want to end the game though.

[LlamaFluff]

@mod - prod jazz

, she is intentionally ignoring this game at this point it would seem

[LlamaFluff]

Jazz - You have untill the end of today am im hammering unless you can give me an

exact

time you will have notes up by thats reasonable.

[LlamaFluff]

She posted! Woo!

Hammer tonight once I read the post.

[LlamaFluff]

Like it wasn't already obvious how town Jazz is or something.

Always good to have more information from the obv-towns

vote cephrir

[LlamaFluff]

Vote ML

More or less for the reasons in 781 which I know he replied to, but I still like the vote. Will respond to his response later as im running behind in a few other games right now too.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote ML

More or less for the reasons in 781 which I know he replied to, but I still like the vote. Will respond to his response later as im running behind in a few other games right now too.

My response is "Please give me more arguments to refute." I already answered your 781 questions, and if you have more, let me know.

Still swamped with classes right now, near the end of the week it always gets worse too so I wont be able to get up everything I have, but here is most.

ML comes off as scummy mostly due to two things, firstly the way he played the SC wagon during D1. I dont think was ever actually a part of the wagon vote wise, but there were comments (like his 33) that make me think otherwise. When the SC wagon came to a head near the end of the day, he stayed off it and continued to push the Apoc wagon which was the only other viable one. It seems like he made his mark on the SC wagon but chose not to cash in it.

You're correct that I was never on the SC wagon vote-wise. Early in the day, I had some suspicions, but he was never at the top of my list. Over the course of page 14, my suspicions spiked due to his voting and subsequent unvoting of Ythill. I also did not like 337 at all. He was then at L-1, so being on his wagon with a vote would have meant a hammer, which I was not willing to do at that point. He then claimed doc, and I backed off like everybody else did.

This I still think is one of the bigger points against you. Your post 33 (11/20) was the first post since your 19 (11/12) which even mentioned SC in some suspicious light. Back in your 19 the extent of what was said even was

SC, I mentioned early on as having suspicions of. He has not done anything to remove those suspicions. Nothing new to add...
...MiteyMouse, you [Corv], and SC are my top targets right now. I'm still waiting for Primate to say anything.

This time before that was WAY back in his fourth post, which was when we were leaving the random stage

In fact, I think that people who don't see that are jumping on the easier Ceph-bandwagon. The first semi-suspicious thing that happens in this game, and you don't want to reason it through? Also, I'm not following on Gorillaz-scum at all. So, yeah, I'm going to

unvote

him.

FoS: StrangerCoug and MiteyMouse

. In fact,

Vote: MiteyMouse

. StrangerCoug at least is saying original things. MM is just following the trail SC is blazing.

---

This just seems like a suspicion that was just there and never acted on. He called SC scummy in the early game and perpetually ignored him for the rest of the game, although SC always was a top suspect when asked by people. Smells like a fake-suspicion to me more then anything else. Going from suspect but never mentioned to "I will hammer if needed" in nothing flat... just really sits poorly with me.

Is the qwints case anything outside of calling SC scum before the flip?

[LlamaFluff]

This I still think is one of ithe bigger points against you. Your post 33 (11/20) was the first post since your 19 (11/12) which even mentioned SC in some suspicious light.

...

This just seems like a suspicion that was just there and never acted on. He called SC scummy in the early game and perpetually ignored him for the rest of the game, although SC always was a top suspect when asked by people. Smells like a fake-suspicion to me more then anything else.

SC's interactions with MiteyMouse and Ceph set me off early, though MM was my preferred suspect at the time. Subsequently, Corvuus's play really irked me mid Day 1. When I posted my top 3 being MM, Corv, and SC, no one else had done enough to get on my suspicion list yet. To be honest, SC was a step down from MM and Corv on my list at the time. As I've said more than once, on page 14 SC went from mildly scummy to pretty darn bad with iso posts 52-55. But I was not yet willing to hammer.

So we are in basic agreement of what happened then?

Going from suspect but never mentioned to "I will hammer if needed" in nothing flat... just really sits poorly with me.

Nice misrep. Please don't put something in quotes like that if I didn't say it. I requested a claim from SC, never said anything about a hammer if needed. There's a big difference.

Its pretty similar to me, you agreed with Cephrir about what he had been saying, called SC scummy and asked for a claim. That just sounds like intention to hammer to me.

[LlamaFluff]

Anybody want to comment on the Apoth case?

I think Apoc is town so still dont support that lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

I really dont think scum would be ballsy enough to claim the same thing that their scum buddy who already got killed would simply given that it just seems suicidal so the claim looks good [/WIFOM]

I dont like how qwints has played if he is a doctor, especially the protect of Jazz (who by far being the worse protection) who just seemed less likely to be NKed then a few others. The only reason I could of seen would of needed to be in someone elses shoes that earlier were hard to get in.

I just cant ignore the ammount of WIFOM behind scum claiming the same role and not just countering each other. While its an odd claim, I do buy it. I may not like the way he chooses to play (or even his N2 target), but there are others I would rather see lynched before him.

It also may partially be the fact that I think ML is scum who for some reason decided to forgo the case on Apoc that he was pushing yesterday for qwints instead. Still think ML is scum, starting to think with Corv unless I am more naive then I think.

[LlamaFluff]

This is looking like a bad deadline for me since out of the three vote getters the one I am on is the only one I really would be comfortable seeing get lynched. Still think Apoc is more likely town then scum given SCs bussing just wouldnt make sense there. While qwints claim is odd, I also dont see scum making the same fakeclaim twice in a game.

Apologies for not being really acive, but classes are just trapping me between a rock and a hard place recently, and with three midterms this week its going to get worse before it gets better. Still I will try to stick around to push my case as much as I can.

[LlamaFluff]

At this point *points to deadline rules* we need to start discussing what is and what is not possible. I really dont want qwints lynched right now, and hold Apoc at about the same level so this may just be a bit more important to me then it is to others. Everyone just ignoring what I am saying for the most part about ML but ML is giving me the same sinking feeling that I had day one (albeit it still was wrong) that scum is ignoring scum and town just doesnt care.

So lets start getting out of tunnel mode and actually discussing what we can get done, this holds a bit more true for me as after tomorrow it will be lucky if I can do much more then keep up with my modding game untill the weekend (dynamics, aquatic chem, ODE midterms). So please, lets start discussing and not end up having to do a slapdash lynch or no lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

He intereacted to the extent where he called him scummy early in the game, then really backed off and didnt mention him for most of the game after that. Later in the game when SC became a wagon again, he hopped back on which just reads like a weak bussing move to me more then anything else.

I dont see much of a case on anyone else really, just have had a really hard time getting into this game so not a whole lot has progressed past gut scum or town reads. So part interactions, part the Apoc vote (who I still say is likely town) and part just PoE.

[LlamaFluff]

Wait... why are we thinking of lynching a doctor claim again?

[LlamaFluff]

Somewhat drunken post but who really hares.

Well for the whole qeints doctor claim, wow. I thoguth that a doctor claim was a stupid one that would get a really quick lynch bur for some reason people have proved me wrong there. But anyways..

What am I really being wagoned for nbow? I saw elmo vote me for the whole thing where I wasnt reallg sure of quints claim, if Iw as either way the day would of already ended I can assure you that much given the way I saw SC play even though onyl one death a night and only one really twon player fying makes me hesitgate on that qeingts hammer.

I atill think that ML is likely scum with PoE at Cor if its who scum instead of one which I really wish kenw if the second existed sicne I am pretty scnceire with my suspciiosn at this potin.

Im going to ge somleep soom enogh, if anyone i wrote needs carifiyin tomorrow tell me since I dont hink this is leginble to a high exent

[LlamaFluff]

I know ive been distant recently. I got really busy with life and games I was more involved in pushed this one back a bit too far.

A translation of the post I dont remember writing in entirety:

I never thought the doctor claim would actually be accepted given how it was tried once already and it seems like the best move would of been to counter SC once the wagon backed off him a bit. This didnt happen however though for some reason.

I still am not entirely sure of why I have votes right now. The rest of this I dont even understand entirely but... heres my best interp. If I knew more about the setup I would of probably been acting a bit differently over the claim from qwints since there might be a way to force a win here unless im really just being naive over what is known. One death a night though is just confusing me beyond all reason given how players we know the alignments of have acted.

@mod

- Would multiple faction kills be apparent if a player was targeted for more then one kill in a night?

Right now I also think that ML-Corv would be the two scum if there are really two left. Jazz looks town, Elmo looks town and all things considered I dont think qwints really is going to be scum at the end of all of this.

[LlamaFluff]

LF, what makes you think that there are two killing factions? - Is it just SC talking about there being two scum?

Thats the biggest reason, there is one other big reason, but that one really is convoluted and I want to see if I can clear away the dust before I make it known.

[LlamaFluff]

LF - do you still see ML-Corv as scum buddies?

Not as much thats for sure. I just am a little confused right now since everything I keep trying to plan someone makes me need to immediately tweak. I really need to start reaching a bit to start finding other pairing for ML that dont completely go against the rest of my notes and reads which just is causing me to ignore this game out of frustration over the hand ive been delt.

ML should still be lynched today

@Mod

- Does kill flavor have significance?
Will there be a deadline extension? (just to know if I should check in Friday night or not)

[LlamaFluff]

LF, what makes you think that there are two killing factions? - Is it just SC talking about there being two scum?

Thats the biggest reason, there is one other big reason, but that one really is convoluted and I want to see if I can clear away the dust before I make it known.

Llama, have you cleared away the dust on this sufficiently to elaborate?

I still havent come to any stellar conclusions. The biggest thing that is bugging me is that all of the doctor protects make a lot of sense for actually of having worked. When this is mixed with how SC did seem to suggest a two scum pairing I have been trying to see with my last string of mod questions what the chance of having a scum pair + scumpair/SK really are. The SC goon flip makes me think that two pairs arent going to happen unless its a red/darkred game.

Something tells me I wont be able to figure it out untill the endgame though.

Reading yet again, one of the biggest problems I am having is with Llamafluff's drunken post which seems to fly in the face of what he had posted prior to that

viz a viz

qwints. Bearing in mind the old saying that "a drunk man's words are a sober man's thoughts," I'm having a hard time reconciling Llama's earlier steadfast defence of qwints' doc claim (and steadfast defence of qwints' predecessor, Atlas) with this one post, which sounds like Llama didn't believe qwints' claim after all. Or maybe I just don't understand Llama's explanation of the drunken post. Llama, will you please clarify whether you do or do not believe qwints' doc claim and what this drunken post was all about?

The doc claim is actually why I have some problems. Doc-watcher is basically a combo that mafia would need to sacrafice someone for without a roleblocker. There was a roleblocker, but a 2 mafia + other anti game would basically be over REALLY fast if the RB went early followed by a massclaim. Especially with a tracker helping to catch scum. If its just a trio, I believe the claim, but given that there are things that seem to suggest the contrary, I just get confused again which might be why I was so uncertain in that post.

If you want it more in black and white, I would say im around 80% sure qwints is town at this point, mostly still given my inital read on Atlas. Then again how well it was taken errs on the side of people knowing its true given either past protection successes that anti-town knows of or just something. I keep running in circles over the whole situation but end up on town qwints usually.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok ready for a wierd post?

unvote
vote qwints

I am a neutral survivor, with a X-Shot bulletproof vest. Not going to say the X since I dont know if it got used up or not yet, and I dont want to get killed since it obviously loses me the game if that happens. I debated doing this earlier when qwints was at L-1 but never got up the courage too. Either way I think this is my best win chance, since I still think there is around a 60% chance qwints is really a doctor given that my vest sort of suggests more then one killing faction as I dont think its custom to give a vest to a neutral automatically.

Honestly I think this is 2 scum, 1 SK, and me. It might explain the strength of the watcher/doctor combo a bit, and explain why I need to be partially NK immune (two kills a night vs one). Either way I think just lynching qwints here is my best option.

So I guess thats about it really... I have no clue really if this was best but if qwints is scum I am dead anyways, if he is town this might give me a small edge with scum knowing not to kill me at night. Feels like damned if I do and damned if I dont.

Looks like I did.

[LlamaFluff]

Your claim confuses me and your explanation for your claim and why you are doing this... confuses me even more.

I thought about this for a long time, if qwints is scum im dead either way, that much is really obvious given that everyone is sure I am his partner.

If qwints is town, its my best shot. If its 3 scum I just won if they dont kill me. If its two scum and a SK, lynching me tomorrow loses the game for town if they dont crosskill.

I dont like my role at all, so when a chance to really throw things into disarray appears that gives me a decent win chance. I sure as hell am going to take it.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote No Lynch

If there are two scum left its already a win for me and I will take it. If not I will reevaluate my position later. Also im not BP, that was all just extra stuff to try and be sure I didnt get NKed for some wierd reason.

[LlamaFluff]

I do not know what the inital setup was. It was either 3 scum 1 SK, 2 scum 1 SK, or 3 scum no SK. If it was 3 scum, I have a forced win. There was a player that if was scum I was dead either way and hopefully hammering would get me brownie points, and if was town left me in the best possible position to win pending me not being night killed by anyone. I took what gave me the best chance to win which was hammering qwints and hoping that there are two scum left.

There has to be at least two anti-town players left right now, and what happens over the next few days will tell me what exactly is the setup. Given how so many people seemed to flow with my speculation yesterday, I do think its a 2 scum 1 SK inital setup, so right now we have me, SCs partner, a SK and two townies.

Basically anyone lynched today but me gets me far to fullfilling my win condition. I would like to win with the town since thats my prefered faction, but when I have the highest chance to win with anti-town, I am going to play to my win condition and take it. If the game doesnt end soon with mafia helping me no lynch, I will try and help scumhunt, but I am looking for a win, and seem to be on the verge of one, I will take any win I can take. Seriously.

Unless you really believe that the setup today is me, one mafia and three town, lynching me likely auto-loses as a best case scenario would be having one mafia one SK two town going into night, or even lose outright.

Basically I am playing to win. I would prefer to win with the town, but will take anything I can get. Maybe this isnt the best way to play survivor, but my choices were very limited when everyone made the connection between me and qwints yesterday.

[LlamaFluff]

Well at this point scum is either a ML-Elmo pair, think I am bluffing (why the hell would I claim NS as VT?) or its scum-SK. If one of them checks in without a no lynch vote I will reevaluate. You know this is the best way to go about this for me though if it is two scum though since there would be no night phase for someone to screw me over in.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

Nice cross post there. I swear if scum are just being chicken about this im going to be pissed if it costs me the game.

[LlamaFluff]

Okay, I now get why LF is talking about a SK from his stated point of view. The question about the kills remains, though, I don't see why a SK would have no-killed or made kills that have all been blocked hitherto.

Or scum tries to kill a BP-SK which is just adding more WIFOM in my head. Trying to see what is happening, but if this is sk-scum-me-vt-vt right now, its in the mafias best intrest to lynch the sk, and sk to lynch town or me.

I still dont think its overly far fetched for a SK not to of been noticed so far. ogml was claimed to of been protected night one, jazz night two, both seem reasonable targets and were killed in subsequent nights. If there is no kill recognition, and the sk is bulletproof, three night of blocked, double and attempted sk kills is not unreasonable. The fact that no one seemed adamently against this during my fishing for setup clues by suggesting a sk yesterday makes me really think there is one.

I dont know what is better to look for today is this situation, I would lean to mafia since there are connections at this point to look at. Need to do some thinking though to look at who reacted in telling ways to sk talk, who fits as partners to sc, and who its going to be best to target.

Leaning ML at this point though given the connections to SC

[LlamaFluff]

I really feel like im being played right now you know? More then I have in any other game and the wierd part here is I think any lynch basically lets me win the game as long as its not my lynch. I still think ML makes a lot of sense as scum though given his connections with SC, and he make some sense as sk given that he wants me dead, and since its apparent there is no scum-scum left thanks to the whole no lynch easy, sk benifits from a non-mafia lynch. Again as long as there is no dick anti-town left any lynch today should let me fullfill my condition.

vote ML

Lets see what this does.

[LlamaFluff]

Ooh, I just realized: Game theoretical argument for LF to not be neutral - Players play to their win condition. LF-neutral should have worked out these scenarios from my previous post as well and seen that his best chance to win would have been lynching Corv, not me. Thus it's less likely he's neutral. (I don't say this as 100% because I know I tend to be way more analytical in these situations than other players.) So, drop scenarios 3, 4, and 8 to less likely.

Well actually lynching you I think is better then lynching Corv at this point given how votes have fallen its either you-X mafia or mafia-sk. For reasons I first brought up at the start of yesterday, the reasons jazz brought up later, and just the really high likelyhood that you are SCs partner, I think you are the better lynch. If Corv is anti-town he is playing brilliantly so far as only a few times throughout the game I have even started to suspect him of not being town.

I know what I am, im confident in Corv being town and illumina being non-mafia. So yeah, you are the lynch for the day, the only thing I dont get is everything points to you being scum, but trying to get me lynched really means that you are SK, or just dont realize how bad a sk-you-vt-vt situation would be going into the night.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm still torn between LF and Maclock, but the deciding factor is the unlikelihood of qwints blocking 2 kills with an SK and the consistent distancing SC did from LF after he got in trouble and claimed doc. I'm leaning towards an LF lynch unless I can be convinced otherwise.

Can I at leat have some reasoning that I am scum? Saying "SC distanced" really isnt giving me anything to defend against. At the start of yesterday I brought up why I think ML is scum, Jazz made it more indepth later, thats my reasoning otherwise.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok see, you still arent giving me anything to defend against and its starting to get a little annoying having a few people pushing for my lynch and no posts at all with any case in them. I take a quick gamble that doesnt pay off like I hoped, then go back to scumhunting, yeah I realize the qwints lynch wasnt ideal, but I thought it was going to be a forced win for me taking it. If he was scum I was dead regardless, if town it was my best move.

For my previous posts against ML, my iso 39 followed by back and forths with elmo in 42/43 and ML in 51/52. Jazz explained stuff a little better then me though in her post about ML

[LlamaFluff]

I really dont mean to sound bitchy or anything here but when people keep saying that they want to lynch me and the only things that have been put up against me are that I am scum with qwints and that I am scum with ML... hell thats not anything that I can even defend against. Its like saying "Because I said so".

Anyone? Something? At least some questions?

[LlamaFluff]

If you never saw the night deaths and just looked at the posts of the game, having both OGML night one who basically moved the wagon onto SC, and the Jazz who was regarded as pro-town by just about everyone be the respective kills makes sense. They both became the kill even they made that much sense.

Last night is just the one that confuses me and I still havent been able to piece together. I dont know if there is a NK immune anti-town role, if jazz was killed by both groups, or if someone decided not to submit a kill. If I knew which of those happened this game would be a lot easier then it is at this point. Hell maybe even scum think I was town or SK bluffing with my claim and thats why they didnt pick up the no lynch, I dont know, I wish I did because I dont want to be lynch on a day where most any lynch apart from mine would lead to a win condition fullfillment.

Any questions that I can actually address with anything more then speculation?

[LlamaFluff]

For my previous posts against ML, my iso 39 followed by back and forths with elmo in 42/43 and ML in 51/52. Jazz explained stuff a little better then me though in her post about ML

If you want me to just reitterate it tell me.

[LlamaFluff]

should have stuff tomorrow after my midterm. Been squaring away an internship so really have lost track of this game. One thing to note is the deadline rule where any tie is a no lynch, something we need to keep in mind when we get close to one.

@mod

Is deadline the sunday the 29th or monday the 30th?

[LlamaFluff]

ugh, posted this thursday night and I guess it never took

My primary reason for thinking that ML is scum is due to connections that have been forged with SC.

*All quotes in Author [iso post #-date] formatting*

In fact, I think that people who don't see that are jumping on the easier Ceph-bandwagon. The first semi-suspicious thing that happens in this game, and you don't want to reason it through? Also, I'm not following on Gorillaz-scum at all. So, yeah, I'm going to

unvote

him.

FoS: StrangerCoug and MiteyMouse

. In fact,

Vote: MiteyMouse

. StrangerCoug at least is saying original things. MM is just following the trail SC is blazing.

These always bug me when I look back at them in games. First I don’t really see how these two things are overly serious to start given that they are over random/annoyance votes from what I was able to pick out of a early game that really is a headache to try and get anything out of. A mentioning of proven mafia and proven town then backing the proven town for a lynch is out of place, how it advances later is what sets off more bells though.

Touche my friend! I wasn't trying to follow someone else's coattails here...I was looking for reasoning for votes early on in the game. I always want reasoning on votes that are past the random vote stage...that's just the way that I play. SC and I were just here around the same time and thinking along the same lines.

Well, here's what I don't get:

I'm following you on it thus far on Cephir and EG.

I get the case on Ceph. I don't agree with it, but I get it. I don't understand at all any case on Gorillaz. Why did you find him scummy? Did SC even make a case for him, or did he just call him scummy? Did I just abuse some pronouns?

At this point ML is pressuring MM on what he sees a as a scumtell which I am perfectly fine with. It is what has gone missing from his posts that concerns me much more then what is present in them. Back in iso-4 he expressed suspicion of SC for basically the same reasons as MM. At this point though he is no longer mentioning SC as a suspect. In fact the next mentioning of SC is [19-11/12], for having MM and SC at the same basic level of suspicion back in iso-4, to pressuring MM while ignoring SC is one thing, when you look at what else happened with SC is when things get more interesting. Most players are actively suspicious of SC at this time (namely zeppo, corv, primate, ceph). I don’t understand how ML just lets SC slip by the wayside at this point in time.

You have nothing new to add? You could clarify what you think about Primate, SC, me, etc. instead of saying nothing. Go on record with an actual 'stance'.

Primate, as I said before, I will now treat like any other player. He hasn't posted a single thing since then. Nothing new to add.

SC, I mentioned early on as having suspicions of. He has not done anything to remove those suspicions. Nothing new to add.

You, I recently mentioned that your attacks of SC are full of flawed logic. I saw your explanations and wasn't particularly convinced. Nothing new to add.

I had done some quick skims of the game again, and found nothing more to say/ask, though I might have more time over the weekend.

MiteyMouse, you, and SC are my top targets right now.

I'm still waiting for Primate to say anything.

This was the mention of SC, just a single line saying “yeah I suspect him”. Then what is with this second part down at the bottom which is also bolded. I do not understand, and I have some more unconventional ideas from time to time. The you appears to be corv at this point. Counting suspicion mentioning of players from iso-5 to iso-18; MM and Corv are clearly mentioned as suspicious twice with a few lines casting doubt on Apoc and Primate. SC is NEVER mentioned in this timespan, yet is in his top three suspects? Im calling this just a token for the SC wagon if he ever needed to switch, remember that quite a few people do suspect him at this point. Supposedly so does ML, his play just does not reflect this.

A cookie for whoever can guess what ML does regarding SC again after post 19 where SC pops out of nowhere as a top three suspect. I should be down three cookies at this point since the answer is… *drumroll*

…

He shuts up about SC again. That’s some nice pushing on a top three suspect right there who currently is in the lead for votes. You think ML would at least comment on why SC is suspicious, remember all the reasoning I see is the iso-4 post, or maybe even comment on someones case on him at this point which has certainly progressed past a page three vote. But alas there is nothing here. Apoc becomes a high suspect here though soon getting a vote, with no mentioning of SC again. Guess SC is out of the top three.

That SC wagon looks better every minute.

I tend to agree with this. SC's jump onto and subsequently off of the Ythill non-wagon was really not townie-looking. Given the L-1, I think it is time to request a claim.

What is this really? ML decides to pull the same bullshit he pulled in iso-19 by suddenly acting like SC is a top suspect when the most mention of SC he has had is SC accidently answering something ment for MM. Keep in mind at this point SC is up to L-2, a reoccurring pattern of calling SC scum but never applying heavy pressure to him is appearing here. Also this is all that ML has to post on the SC case, hell looking back at this I would probably be calling ML scum for it even if SC was town given how he just seems to either be subtly pushing the wagon or just trying to instill some sense of ownership on it. At this point im certain that it’s the latter.

[LlamaFluff]

Moreso, I don't get why you'd make that post as a survivor. Or why you unvoted earlier today. You're supposed to be apathetic as to who wins. Hrm.

Its obvious there are not two mafia left is why at this point. If ML is scum with someone, they would of voted Corv and I would of already fullfilled my condition. If ML is town with two scum, the game should again be over already. Even if Corv-ML are scum they both would of voted someway together and I would of ended the day.

So either its just one scum left, or scum + SK left. Nothing else makes any sense. No one will kill me tonight, that much I am fairly sure of given that I am a free vote for them, so I was fine with just kicking back and not doing anything while the day ended. When I have two people trying to start pushing a case on me without giving any reasoning, I have to do something, even if it means possibly annoying/pissing someone off enough to get killed, since possible NK is better then getting lynched.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm pretty sure if I was part of a living mafia pair that didn't include you, I'd believe you and take the win, or at least move that way; it's probably not hard to BS a vote on Corvuus.

This is my point that I have been trying to make and why I have been convinced of a SK this entire time. There are NO pairings of scum that are left that are physically possible at this point. The furthest possible reaching push is something along the lines of "ML is scum and his partner is afriad I am bluffing town/SK and moving to a corv lynch wouldnt work". It is that unlikely, this is why I even kept poking at the whole SK stuff yesterday, to try and figure out a setup and see if making the hammer qwints gambit would work.

That actually makes it relatively easy. The lack of kills very clearly indicate the lack of a SK to me. So for you to be telling the truth, either there has to be 2-strong mafia vs. doc+tracker+watcher, which is pretty much horribly imbalanced, or there were 3 mafia to start out with and {Corvuus, MacavityLock} are the living mafia pair. Right?

This also is sort of my point. How does this claim even work for me if I am in a pairing with anyone? Seriously, me-anyone that doesnt result in a town lynch today basically loses the game for scum. I still dont agree with you on the setup though, unless a lone mafia is something along the lines of day-vig-rber or something stupid like that, there has to be something else out there. I am confident there is a SK at this point, nothing else seems to balance the game to me.

So hypothetically, if we lynched ML as mafia today, Illumina died as townie tonight, what would you think/do tomorrow, LF? If I died as townie? You can pretty much vote for anyone and instawin, no?

Like I said, I like being town, so I would probably vote who I thought was the SK in my first post. If I have a win chance I am taking it though, not about to put up with a role I hate (I actually thought about replacing out for a bit D1), get to the endgame and then lose.

TBH, Corvuus may not even show in 24 hours and the other two are heavy lurking for tactical reasons. So I'm thinking one of me / Illumina ends up hammering ML. I'm really interested what people have to say about my 1158, though. I'm also curious what Illumina has to say about LF.. I'd be interested to know roughly why you suspect him. Maybe you already said and I'm forgetting, but I remember asking it and don't remember a response. I think I spelt out why I think he's scum before.

Yes I am lurking a bit intentionally at this point, basically any lynch but mine is benifical to me, I just need to stay out of the way and I should be able to get a win. You dont spit into the wind. However you really havent made any case against me that I can remember, almost everything that has been said against me is either, scum with qwints, scum with ML, or gut. There is nothing said so far that I can actually defend against except the scum with qwints which has already been disproven.

[LlamaFluff]

So why is no one hammering ML? I think deadline passed again. There are scenarios that I just keep playing in my head and the two that I keep getting right now are

1) 1 SK, 1 mafia, 2 VT, me
2) 1 SK, 2 mafia, 1 VT, me

I am almost positive its the first situation at this point, but maybe its fear of the SK that its the second one preventing something from actually happening at this point. If its the second one, then again, maybe its the fear of mafia that I am a SK and wouldnt hammer someone I think is town.

I just dont see how this day hasnt ended. The only answer I get is scum just being paranoid over what the setup is.

[LlamaFluff]

Day three was very frustrating for me given that I spent a long time debating if I should basically suicide like I did on qwints. I was trying to probe for a SK which could of existed given the stronger town, eventually I decided that I was in a bad enough position that that just hammering was the right move. Survivor was a spur of the moment thing that I hoped would just shake some town player up enough to make themselves look like my partner.

Activity was horrible though, I really had a hard time lurking as much as I did, but when I was able to just completely get away with it, and it was very benificial to do so, there was no point to consider stopping it. Even moreso the last day where I needed to get lynched, not ML.

The whole drunk post was actually planned. I saw people turning against me a bit, and knew the doctor, so I acted uncertain over the claim as much as possible, then had the great idea to make a post that sounded like I thought the claim was a bad idea. So thats how I spent that Friday. I was trying to set up qwints to go down if I went first.

No idea how I didnt get lynched right off the bat though D4... or eventually even. Elmo was right that I was screwed if ML got lynched, but I really couldnt change votes without being obvious in connections. The game going into night scared me though since I figured there actually might be a SK afterall.

[LlamaFluff]

I didnt win if the game went to another day and I knew that. It would of required me to sell that

1) OGML was targeted by SK/mafia N1
2) Jazz was targeted by SK/mafia N2
3) SK/Mafia tried to cross kill immune N3
4) Same thing happened again or all mafia were dead N4

If you put all that on top of the fact that playing to my win condition would of outted me immediately, I would of had no chance but to no kill and hope that just freaked someone enough for something to happen. That or kill Illumina and just lurk to hope that Corv voted Elmo right out of the gate.

I was thinking there might be an unlucky SK though after qwints flip though since watch-track-doc vs rb-goon-goon seems town weighted. Jazz popping up as the only kill basically brought me back to no SK though, even though I still needed to argue it.

[LlamaFluff]

I think selling a OGML target on n1 is not unreasonable since I actually mistook him for a counterclaiming doc on day 1 (was I right about the reasoning for the kill btw? If you didn't think he was doc, it looks like a bad kill) so you've really only got n2 to sell.

I had him as some investigation PR, for the wrong reasons though in the end. My other finished game with him had him as a cop and he went through almost identical early day posts as that game.

I shouldnt of pulled the BP part of my claim in retrospect, maybe I did it because I have done a similar thing as town once where I claimed I still had a one shot action when I had already used it. You bringing up that large game where I faked psych I had no clue how to react to and just ended up ignoring it.

Also this is either the fourth or fifth game I have been in with SC, he has got lynched in all, but it figures this was the first time he was scum...

[LlamaFluff]

Also funny stats for replacing now for me, 4 of 6 have been as scum, and I have never been alive D2 as a replacement town aligned... Even better when I realize that as non-replacement its been only 1 of 12 as town if you include newbie games.