Open 87 - Baby Too Much Scum - Over before 641

[Mencellator]

Hello all,
From a brief skim through the thread, I am slightly suspicious of Crazy's actions during the Goat/Oman argument. I can also agree with Goat that iamausername/Skitzer are possible partners in crime.
However, I am going to

Unvote, Vote: OGML

for now because he is remaining quiet and occasionally speaks up to support any current wagon. He is perhaps hiding low and turning everyone against each other; SK?

Sorry, how do I write the Vote in bold?

I'm going to do it this once, but all you have to do is highlight the word you want to bold and press the B in the upper left hand corner. Preview will be your friend.

[Mencellator]

I still think OGML was suspicious and I wanted to pressure him, but now we won't be able to hear from him and I can't really take that suspicion any further after Grimmy's posts.

I am more focused on Oman. Not for any specific reason but because his arguments generally seem scummy throughout the day. I can't picture Goat being scum nor can I see him working with Oman, though we haven't heard from Goat in a while.

If Oman were to have a partner, I would suggest Crazy. They do seem supportive to each other, or at least Crazy seems quite supportive to Oman.

Unvote, Vote: Oman

[Mencellator]

Agreed. In a normal game, the lynching process matters more to the mafia then nightkilling, so the absence of nightkills doesn't change it much or make it a 'Town vs. Town' game at all.

[Mencellator]

Goat makes a fair point, but I'm sticking with Oman for fear of a no-lynch past the deadline.

[Mencellator]

Well I guess two of what were my major suspects are townie so I don't have much to say about other people's alignment yet. I am still a little suspicious of Crazy but Oman's death changes things slightly.

I agree that if FBI has cleared someone other than Iamausername then he should claim and we'll have strictly more than 50% chance of hitting scum today.

[Mencellator]

We all have to promise that if this game somehow gets to a 1-1-1, then we let the SK win, or at least the player that looks most likely to be the SK. Right?

It makes sense, but I can see Newcomb's Paradox coming into play.

[Mencellator]

We all have to promise that if this game somehow gets to a 1-1-1, then we let the SK win, or at least the player that looks most likely to be the SK. Right?

It makes sense, but I can see Newcomb's Paradox coming into play.

I just read the wikipedia article on that, and I have no idea how that applies. Explain, please?

Well, if you want to know, it reminded me of a problem I've studied where someone places some money in box A, and then puts lots in B only if you promise and convince him that you'll take the contents of just B. So, if you are looking to maximise profit you should promise to open just B and then do that. But then again, once offered the boxes the contents are fixed so there's nothing to stop you breaking your promise and taking from both boxes. The paradox lies in the fact there is no 'correct' decision.

But now that I think about it I'm talking utter rubbish because I forgot that in your situation townies lose anyway so they aren't promising to do something that would worsen themselves. Sorry for wasting your time reading the wiki, lol.

[Mencellator]

I definitely agree with Crazy's idea, and also with Goat's improvement on the FBI claiming business.

[Mencellator]

The hypo claim is fine, except for one thing, if the Agent investigated iamusername.

If we do a hypo-claim, we do it by claiming we checked anyone out of the set of people we could have investigated, including iamausername. That would work fine.
So, there's a 1/6 chance that FBI actually checked iamausername if it was random. But iamausername is special, as he's dead, so because of human psychology he probably won't get the fair 1/6 representation in the hypo-claims. I suggest we each use a random number generator to determine whether we hypo-claim iamausername or not, do it with probability 1/6. But then after doing that, just claim whoever you think you would have checked night one as FBI.

[Mencellator]

I checked Grimmy, and he's not SK.

Goat, you claim next.

[Mencellator]

Yer, not much can be done with them. Though I would feel more comfortable lynching someone other than Goat.
And if you wanted to be super-strict on odds, I suppose you'd lynch someone who isn't checked at all. But actually that wouldn't work because the fact that these people were 'checked' means we suspected them as SK, right? Looking too heavily into the results is going to lead us astray.

[Mencellator]

Vote: Grimmy

Not just because Crazy and Arm are voting but I was planning on voting Grimmy anyway.

[Mencellator]

Didn't mean to cause panic, I didn't realise I was the penultimate voter.

Not just because Crazy and Arm are voting but I was planning on voting Grimmy anyway.

Reasons?

Well I guess I've been suspecting Grimmy since day one. Do you want specific reasons?

[Mencellator]

Yeah, specific reasons.

Well, OhGodMyLife was always lurky and whenever he did speak up he seemed to just be switching about and going along with every wagon,

Wow.

I am no longer enthralled by the my goatrevolt vote. However, the wagon on him was most informative.

Unvote, Vote: Crazy

Of course when Grimmy replaced, he couldn't easily speak for OGML's actions and so it has never really been answered. And I don't find Grimmy as scummy.
Grimmy did throw a lot of FoS about on Oman/Goat and Crazy over the Oman/Goat argument, and he was pretty confident one of them was guilty with "different reasons for an either/or case".
I can picture Grimmy covering for SK.

I find it odd how Arm follows Crazy's vote and votes Grimmy with absolutely no reason, and then immediately questions my reasoning for my own vote.

Seems fair.

Vote Grimmy

Gogo wagon Rangers!

Not just because Crazy and Arm are voting but I was planning on voting Grimmy anyway.

Reasons?

[Mencellator]

Mencelator. Please answer the question instead of avoiding it.

Are you serious?

And he was then replaced, which nulls the lurky part.

Nothing can null the fact that he was lurky in the first place. I don't see how you could possibly mean that.

And I don't find Grimmy as scummy

ORLY?

Ya rly.

This game needed a wagon to progress. I saw nothing that indicated Grimmy was necessarily town, and as such it wasa good place to start.

Yes, I don't see anything wrong with your vote, that wasn't my point at all. It's just that you were so eager to question my reasons despite the fact you hadn't provided any of your own.

[Mencellator]

Ok, I can definitely picture armlx and crazy working together as the mafia team now. I'm not sure whether to stick with Grimmy or switch to Crazy.

[Mencellator]

This is probably safer.

Unvote, Vote: Crazy

[Mencellator]

I'm not the FBI agent, and I believe Crazy as long as Goat doesn't counterclaim. I'm glad I was right about Armlx and Grimmy.

[Mencellator]

I heard she had heaps of links with armlx.

I don't like this sentence at all. Explain yourself, what do you mean you 'heard' this and what are these 'heaps of links'.

[Mencellator]

Sounds pretty solid.

Crazy, do you have a response?

[Mencellator]

Finally managed to get back online after being temporarily banned by my uni. I need to have a better read.

At the moment I really feel like Skitzer could be the mafia. He was lurking at the right times (I sort of mean, at the times I would expect a mafia might lurk, if that makes sense.)
The fact the armxl was ignoring Skitzer is possibly significant.
I'm also irritated by this sentence, it just seems really scummy:

I heard she had heaps of links with armlx.

On the other hand, for the reasons I had been suspecting Grimmy as SK, I can also picture him being mafia. I suppose Grimmy would be my second choice for now.

[Mencellator]

Apologies for lack of posting, my Uni was going through some annoying surprise network quarantine process.

I guess it is dumb of me to have a second choice mafia at all. I mean, after lynching Skitzer and finding he is innocent, I would know for sure that Grimmy is mafia anyway.

I feel that Skitzer radiates guilt, but also I hate backing off a hunch. When I did think Grimmy was SK, I think my reasons were that I thought OhGodMyLife was lurky and bandwagony, and also the way Grimmy responded to the Oman/Goat argument as if really trying to put suspicion on both of them. I'm just wondering whether Armxl and Grimmy could have really worked as partners.

So really my priority at the moment is Skitzer.

[Mencellator]

So sorry, so much going on; Uni freshers week, intense maths work, conjunctivitis...
I will try to respond as soon as I get a chance and when my eyes stop hurting.

[Mencellator]

Okay, I am strongly confident that Skitzer is the mafia. If there exists a book on how to act like mafia, I reckon he's been reading it.

Vote: Skitzer