Mini Normal 2196 - Game Over

[HypoSoc]

Many people are familiar with Descartes famous declaration "Cogito ergo sum" (I think, therefore I am), whether through the subjects of jokes, or through exploratory studies of famous philosophers in school, or through general cultural osmosis. What is less often accurately portrayed is the context for this declaration, and the utter profundity of its implications.

To diverge a tad, the science and study of knowledge and its acquisition is known as "Epistemology." Epistemology concerns itself with the questions of "what do we know?" "how do we learn?" and "how can we be certain that what we know is true?" Cursory studies of the subject will reveal that it is actually very hard to come up with strong proofs of knowledge, and that it is logically consistent for everything we think we know to just be a tower of coincidences with no ultimate foundation. We, as a civilization, have "known" this for almost 2500 years at this point, as it was a topic of contemplation for the Pyrrhonists of Greek Antiquity. (If one is interested in this subject, I recommend looking into "the problem of induction" and "the Münchhausen trilemma").

To get back to the point, Knowledge is HARD, and Skepticism seems to eviscerate any attempt at surety. Any given "fact" could be a lie or a mistake or a coincidence. To the existentially inclined, this can be a point of paralysis. But Descartes was able to identify a lighthouse in the swarming abyss of truth: that the EXPERIENCE of THINKING necessarily proves there is SOMEBODY to EXPERIENCE IT. Perhaps all you know is a lie. You could be a brain in a vat undergoing an experiment. Everything you see and feel could be the strange delusions of a comatose space whale. Perhaps 2+2 is 5, but a deficiency in the human brain prevents anyone from ever realizing. Nothing is certain, because the very tools you have to interpret the world, your senses and your reasoning, cannot be proven to work.

But what you can know, beyond this pale void of ignorance, is that YOU exist. Even if you are mad, or diseased, or deceived, or if every experience you feel is tainted and broken, there is a YOU to experience. And from this certainty we can begin to think and dream and live once again.

So, like Descartes, stumbling, grasping, for any source of truth, when all knowledge is lacking at the start of the game, I will cling to the self evident truth:

DrippingGoofball has a funny name! Let's get them out of here!

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

[HypoSoc]

I'm vibing with this wagon ^

Vibe away, my dude. Don't let anyone harsh it.

[HypoSoc]

So, just a quick sanity check.

As far as I can tell, claiming D4 Innocent Child is not a good move for scum. Unless they have good reason to believe they could secure their victory before then, it just means that, should they be lying, they are guaranteeing their elimination on day 4. Even if they manage to throw everyone off for a few actions, it's not like they would be faking cop, so the damage they could do from everyone assuming they are town is limited.

Playing Devil's advocate for myself, why would scum choose to do that? The only reasons I could think of is if they were trying to Doctor bait. Perhaps a Reflexive Watcher Scum (or a Scum with a Watcher partner) might claim IC if they felt finding a doctor was worth sacrificing themselves... which seems like a really bad trade to me. Also, it feels like a super specific circumstance.

As for why Town might lie about it, it would be trying to NK bait... because they are a bulletproof reflexive watcher or a paranoid gun owner? That also feels like a stretch, if slightly less of one, since those trades would be worth it.

So, my conclusion is that April is Town, even if they are lying about being a D4 IC (which I think is unlikely). Like, if they had claimed to be a Day 6 Innocent Child, I would be insanely suspicious, but for Day 4... It feels like they are trying to turn their time locked IC status into an effective IC role.

Is there anything wrong with my analysis? If not, I'm prepared to treat April as effectively an Innocent Child unless/until it is officially proven.

If all of this is super obvious to everyone, I apologize. I'm mostly working through my own thoughts here.

[HypoSoc]

Huh. Hammer could happen.

Da Dude... care to comment?

[HypoSoc]

I...I want to, like, townread this effort, but something...about HypoSoc suggests they are rather wordy as both alignments. I'm not really able to read through this post currently and, uh, break it down to the concepts or whatever. Can someone help me understand what this post is really saying?

The post is why I think claiming to be a Day 4 Innocent Child is a town move because:

a) It seems like a REALLY stupid move for scum to make
and
b) There are town reasons to claim it

So, I am saying I believe April is town.

[HypoSoc]

Seriously, don't waste a vote on an Innocent Child.

Let April eat a night kill for us. Or, if she proves to be lying, then get her on day four. There is ZERO reason to vote her out before then.

[HypoSoc]

I haven't really been interested in the Da Dude wagon because I didn't have particular suspicions for that slot, nor did I think flipping it would reveal anything.

But now I am suspicious of MiniMegabyte, and I feel Da Dude flipping scum would all but cinch it.

That said, the Da Dude wagon is evaporating, so maybe I should just vote for my suspicion directly.

VOTE: MiniMegabyte

But, if the Da Dude slot wagon returns, I am happy to swap to it.

[HypoSoc]

The claim and the self-vote mostly. FL loves this sort of cheesy 'why would scum ever do this???' stuff as scum.

Seriously, even if you doubt the claim, why would you ever vote to eliminate day 1-3?

Either you are are wrong and you wasted an elimination on an INNOCENT CHILD.
Or, you are right, and we have a GUARUNTEED scum elimination on day 4.

"Prolonged influence on gamestate" is such a nebulous benefit that is completely irrelevant if you maintain a proper ounce of suspicion.

In fact, I am HOPING April is scum, because claiming day 4 IC as scum is such a monumentally bad play for scum to make.

[HypoSoc]

If April is scum, what she'd gain from claiming D4 IC is three days where the odds of limming scum go down significantly

That's no more dangerous than the OTHER scum that you haven't picked out.

The odds of eliminating scum is already lower than the odds of eliminating arbitrary town because of coordination (same with masons). I am not saying don't be suspicious of April, or to treat April as IC.

Reducing POSSIBLE scum eliminations days one through three does NOT make up for a GUARUNTEED scum elimination day 4, unless scum has reason to believe town is crack shotting in their picks.


Like, here's some exploratory math. I KNOW eliminations are not random shots (town should be trying to do better than random and scum should be aiming to make it worse than random, and power rolls mess with everything), but it is illustrative and allow comparisons, so it serves as a quick and dirty heuristic.

Spoiler: Math

Say April is scum, and we explicitly refuse to vote for them until day 4. And let's say there are three scum in total (which is what I am assuming we have). So day 1, there are two unaccounted for scum, and 10 town in the line of fire.

2/12 hits. ~17% chance of hitting scum. ~83% chance of missing

Day 2, assume we missed, someone innocent is eliminated. So April, two scum, and 8 town.

2/10 hits. 20% chance 80% chance of missing

Day 3, assume we missed again, someone innocent is eliminated again. So April, two scum, and 6 town

2/8 hits. 25% chance. 75% chance of missing

Day 4, you are proven right, April is proven scum, we eliminate them. So, in the worst case, where we miss days one through three (which happens 50% of the time by this simple heuristic), we catch one scum. And 50% of the time we catch MORE than one scum.

With a quick script, the values are
1 caught: ~50%
2 caught: ~45%
3 caught: ~5%


Now consider what happens if we allow April to be in the pool of possible scum candidates. This is the case of what would have been if theoretical scum April didn't claim anything. We now have three hits in this case. For the math,
Day one: 3/13. ~77% chance to miss.
Day two: 3/11. ~73% chance to miss.
Day three: 3/9. ~67% chance to miss.
Day four: 3/7. ~57% chance to miss.

So, that would out to ~21% chance of missing four times in a row, losing the game.

With a quick script, the heuristic odds for this base case are:
0 caught: ~21%
1 caught: ~52%
2 caught: ~25%
3 caught: ~2%


And, for completeness sake, let's assume April is Scum and we eliminate them now (so, start day 2 with 2 scum and 9 town):
1 caught: ~45%
2 caught: ~47%
3 caught: ~7%

So, no. I reject your argument that "reducing the available scum eliminations each day by 1" is a significant factor. If you were ONE HUNDRED PERCENT CERTAIN that April is scum, that is only SLIGHTLY better than waiting until Day 4 to eliminate. Admittedly, it is better by a statistically significant degree, but it fails to make a difference between victory and defeat 95 times out of 100.

But if you are WRONG, then you are wasting an elimination on an innocent child, and that is absolutely a bad play.

Come back with a cop report if you want me to vote for April before day four, because I am not budging otherwise. And that's not something you have on day 1.


Edit by way of preview:
Huh, looks like you were trying to convince me using random scum flipping as an argument, but that is exactly the math I am using to show it is a bad idea.

[HypoSoc]

Yeah, Klick, but you just looking at what i like as scum, and not the fact that i love chaos

You fool! You blunderer! You thought you were doing it for the sake of chaos, but the claim you made is actually logical and advances the interests of town! You have, knowingly or not, acted in an orderly manner!

[HypoSoc]

For example 2-3 LyLo is not actually 40% chance of limming scum because all three Town have to agree on a vote. The same applies to earlier days. If April!scum removes herself from the lim pool there's a massive payoff on D3 in particular

And killing an innocent child before they activate is also a massive payoff for scum.

I acknowledge scum coordination gets more powerful later, but worry about D3 payoff is not justification for a D1 vote. We will have far more information to work with on D3. Perhaps we will manage to catch scum today or on D2. Or perhaps April will be night killed before then making this all moot.

[HypoSoc]

So, Dannflor, your slot has been the most accused so far. It might be helpful if you gave us more to go off on, since you are in the hot seat.

[HypoSoc]

HypSoc, I'm interested in how you've been reading my slot/my predecessors and what you think of the people wagoning me. From your ISO it's hard to tell what stance you have exactly on me.

I am not reading your slot as particularly scummy, but I am willing to flip your slot based on what it would reveal for others. I never was on that wagon.

That comment was in response to you crickets, because action WAS waiting on you. I was trying to give you an immediate summary so we could move on, rather than wait for 25 pages of analysis.

[HypoSoc]

would flipping my slot reveal anything particularly for you?

what are your strongest stances/reads in the game right now?

The two questions are related.

MiniMegabyte is my strongest scum read, and if your slot is scum, that would confirm it even more. I would rather vote of MM directly (which I am), but because most discussion has been on your slot, it would be informative. Nor have I gotten the impression that your slot is particularly important, if it turns out you are town, based on how the other players in your slot have reacted.

My strongest stance is believing Alice's claim. I take claims very seriously, and I've determined it's a believable one. I have also determined it is important to strongly and visibly show my support for this particular role claim, because players reactions to my declarations help inform my reads, and because player activity can influence night kills.

[HypoSoc]

At first I got scum feeling from HypoSoc in the way he was trusting in April's claim, because I thought it was clear that it wasn't a serious claim. It was as if he is scum that knows April is town. Then, several other people seemed to be taking April's claim seriously, so maybe not out of the ordinary after all? He is now doubling down on believing the claim, so maybe it is just scum.

I take all role claims seriously. If you make a non serious role claim, I'd call for a policy elimination.

April has made NO indication that it was a random, non serious claim. Why are you so quick to dismiss actual legitimate declarations? They have no retracted it. They have consistently acted as though that claim is real for DAYS now. It's not like the other statements they made in this thread.

Can you walk me through why my scum flip means MM is more likely to be scum?

Because of how they acted to mitigate the wagon on you and direct it to April. It fits a pattern of scum you, scum MM, and town April. You flipping town means that efforts to stop your wagon aren't nearly as suspicious.

The innocent child is a weird role, from a scum's perspective. They need the IC dead eventually, because it mikes LyLo situations for them so much worse, but it is much better to kill the legitimate power roles at night.

With a not activated Innocent Child, like what April claims to be, scum me would make a concentrated effort to get them eliminated in the day vote before they activate. E.g. I would act like MM or Klick.

So, I am VERY suspicious of people trying to get a vote going on April.

[HypoSoc]

HypoSoc, what would you say if I could point you to games of both alignments by April where she's fake claimed IC? The only reason I'm not taking it seriously is because I know the history of that player and they do things like fake claim IC often

I would be very annoyed that that information wasn't presented days ago. I'd probably be tempted to policy eliminate April. But I still townread her, so, I'd be conflicted.

[HypoSoc]

See, yeah, compared to "late activated IC", Novice Detective IS something that makes sense for scum to claim.

Also, it feels like you made the claim pretty early... like, as town it's a role you want to keep secret. You weren't at risk of being hammered immediately (only E-2 at the time you made the claim, if I counted correctly), so why would you give up the town power role's anonymity so quickly?

Edit by way of preview: +1 to April's "frustrated scum" analysis

[HypoSoc]

Feh, are all these slot replacements normal?

I'm just generally annoyed by all the player swapping, and keeping track of who claimed what, and who practically admitted to being mason with whom. Forty pages of day one... it feels kind of miserable, and actively counter productive.

Are we settling on anyone at all?

I'm happy with the slot vote I am currently going for, but I have no reason to be stubborn about it. If geraintm is someone we can agree to get out, I'll swap to that, or I'll hold strong if we want to get Solon out. Power role claiming on three votes feels weak and desperate.

[HypoSoc]

Hm... wagon on me. A bit annoying.

But ultimately, if a town is eliminated, I am the best townie to eliminate, so I'm not going to try TOO hard to get the wagon off me.

I'd rather get a scum, but them's the works.

[HypoSoc]

It will probably be helpful for the game when I flip town, so use your best judgement.

[HypoSoc]

assuming you are VT why are you the bst one?

I mean, some other townies might be equivalent, but not having access to my role is no real loss for town. Compared to, say, a full power investigative role, which would be painful to lose day 1.

[HypoSoc]

there might be other slots that would give better associateives than you though

Perhaps. But I think there are some decent associations for me flipping town. I've been pretty consistent in my actions. The formation of the wagon on me over the last day (and away from the other two existing wagons), strikes me as good information once it is proven I am town. Same as the reasoning for the votes. Obviously some can just be initial misreads, but it's a safe scum play to reiterate a point that a town mistakenly made first.

This is up for the voters to decide. Do you think someone would reveal more information? If so, it might be better to vote for them, but I am pretty satisfied with results of me flipping town.



As for my suspect, I am currently voting for them. It's the slot I am suspicious of and HAVE been suspicious of. Dannflor as well, based on their actions and the actions of those in the slot before them.

[HypoSoc]

okay so now is your chance to give us lots of good info before we elim you. talk about WHY you have these reads. giving us good info to work on d2 is veyr protown

To sum up my reads in a single place:

Solon's and Dannflor's slots seem paired up, most because of how people in those slots treated each other. I don't like the role claims these slots have made. I don't like how they treated each others wagons. I feel either of them flipping will help match the other. I feel like the players that were previously in the slot acted superficially, regurgitating other player's suspicions without actually contributing, which seems like a safe scum move to amplify town misreads. I would like one of them to flip, because that would secure the other in my mind, and I feel they are more scummy than not, so I suspect scum over town.

I don't like Gretchen's role reveal, but I am not willing to push it day one. I want people to put a lot of pressure on them days 2 and 3, assuming they don't get eliminated.

I want April eliminated on Day 4, if they are not an innocent child.


clidd is strange to me, because we seem to disagree on a whole lot of reads, and they've been consistently reading me as scum. My inclination is they are town, if only because they have been extremely consistent, but I want to see how they react when they are proven wrong. It's not like pushing me helps scum particularly.

On the other hand, if one of the Day 1 wagons turns out to be scum, then I would be a whole lot more suspicious of them, because then they would have been trying to divert a legitimate wagon. But for now, I am working under the impression we are both town, and clidd just doesn't like my post style.

[HypoSoc]

hypo are you cool with i vote you and then you hammer?

If you think you will get info from my elimination, then fire away, my dude! I think there is info to be had, but you have to promise to use it.

I have a preference for not getting voted out, and I have a preference for scum getting voted out, but I would rather be voted out than for nobody to go out this round.

[HypoSoc]

Well, you allowed me the dignity of not forcing me to vote for myself next hour, so thank you.

But, please, take the information my proven vanilla townie status brings, and USE it. I'll be annoyed if scum wins.

[HypoSoc]

I feel so justified by the fact that all of my stronger reads were correct (Flee/Alice, Clidd, A50/Solon/MM), and that the people initially claiming I was scummy were themselves scum.

Like, I had no way to know if I was just playing terribly, but this resolution makes me feel a lot better about the game.