Mini Normal 2197: Noraaland ~Endgame~

[In the beginning]

First.
VOTE: ItalianoVD

[In the beginning]

Don't worry Toogeloo! It's a mini normal, so it's unlikely it'll blow up.

[In the beginning]

Yes. You can find my main easily enough if you search a little.

[In the beginning]

Great, now you can be E-1!
VOTE: MURDERCAT

[In the beginning]

I don't like the top wagons.

We should just
VOTE: No Lim

instead.

[In the beginning]

Definite scum on MURDERCAT.

Is this just based on general probabilities, or does this conclusion also come from the way it formed?

Oh, good catch Italiano.

What do you mean? I don't think anything that Italiano has said so far is rather earth shattering.

The thought of an all town wagon did cross my mind, but would consensus town really be that comfortable bringing any wagon that close to elimination within the first two pages?

Okay, so you think there is scum based on the way the wagon formed. My response to this is that people put a lot less weight to votes very early and will wagon people up in an attempt to see where they go. Anyone who actually lolhammers tends to get scrutinized the following day like what happened to you in Mini Normal 2193 after your day 1 hammer. Thus, it's by no means impossible that an all town formed on MURDERCAT. On the other hand, probability theory suggests that this is unlikely; there's roughly an 80% chance that at least one scum is on the wagon.

Hey Murder.

Hey! Looking forward to playing with you again

I do find it a little strange you are just now getting around to responding to these posts. It'd be more understandable if the thread was bigger, but the thread is currently a very manageable size.

The vote I'd be most worried about is pikachu

(Which player is this referring to?)

I was on my phone and didn't want to be killed

I do agree with Infinity's observation, but this is somewhat understandable.

also wow I'm glad I was off that wagon

Why is it's closeness to elimination such a concern? This reads to me as scum who are glad they aren't going to be scrutinized because they weren't on the wagon. I'll be sure to keep an eye on you.

his perspective should be, namely that scum deliberately wagoned him to claim

Why should this be MURDERCAT's perspective? Also, who seriously claims from a more or less RVS wagon?

rule of 3

Explain.

This is town.

(In reference to Flea's 69 How exactly? I came to the opposite conclusion.

Yeah, no.

VOTE: In the beginning

This is really surface level analysis.

[In the beginning]

Preliminary reads:

MURDERCAT is probably town here.
Flea, Titus, and Ari are scum here. Maybe Toogeloo with that surface level vote.
VOTE: Titus

[In the beginning]

Okay, Ari can be town. Toogeloo replaces Ari in my scum team guess.

[In the beginning]

You don't want a dumb vote, don't make a dumb post.

This post strikes me as overly aggressive.

I was glad Italiano caught that error as E-1 seemed premature and a little close for comfort to me since lolhammers are always a possibility and early ones are hard to read.

Oh, so your comment was with regards to the VC. Okay, that makes a bit more sense. I don't agree with the paranoia about lolhammers; sure, they do happen, but like I said, they get scrutinized as well, so it's a very risky move for scum to make. If anything, I would imagine weaker scum teams are most likely to take advantage of them because it is like a free mislim in some ways, especially if they didn't think they would last long.

Bad post
I’d expect Italiano to think scum would be on there. Not so much you.

(In reference to 42 Huh? Why wouldn't you expect scum on the wagon? Or at least, why do you think it's an unreasonable take from Ari?

Seriously? Doesn't sound like something any scum would say.

Let's not deal in absolutes. Mafia isn't that kind of game. I think it makes perfect sense as scum; it's one of those "hindsight is 20/20" style comments, and those are more likely from scum who knows a player is/was town and thus purposely stayed off the wagon.

we were close to deadline

I'm pretty sure we had at least 5 days then, unless the desdline was a week. (Admittedly, I don't remember what the day deadline rules for that game were.)

Honestly, knowing we were still in RVS, I just skimmed the first 30 or whatever posts, and then picked someone to vote for a silly reason. I did see his name come up in a couple votes, but I thought he only had like 2 or 3 people voting for him. Anyway, it was just an RVS vote, so UNVOTE:

I don't like this; it seems a bit overly defensive.

Well... I have no idea. I think if scum *are* present they are either a) in the first three, since it's unlikely they planned to try to turbo someone on page 2, although other scum could've hopped on because B) they are (more likely) one of the people who put Murdercat to E-1, in hopes that a clueless townie might hammer him (yes... I realize this includes me.)

This is a whole bunch of words that would be elegantly summarized by your first sentence. I also don't buy that a townie would have no clue as to whether there is scum on the wagon. They could at least argue from a probabilistic standpoint even if they didn't scum read any of the individual votes.

But then surely my optimal play there is not you know... not mention it..?

Humans don't always make optimal decisions. They can and have many times made mistakes and errors, some big and some small.

Why does not liking the leading wagons = wanting to no elim? Is there no one you find scummier?

You didn't roll scum again, did you?

Italiano is a newer player and I think you’d know it’s practically rng

Except... it would be more unusual for there NOT to be one from basic probability theory...

[In the beginning]

It's Gamma, Statue, and either Flea or Titus.

[In the beginning]

Stop! Hammer time!

VOTE: Noraa

[In the beginning]

Isn't a hero solve generally something you give a stab in the dark? But yeah I think you're strongly town from this

Request: Please don't respond to a single post at a time when catching up. Try to group them into chunks so as to not needlessly clutter the thread.

Yeah this is just bad, I like my vote where it is

Be more precise; why do you perceive it as bad? I don't mean bad in a "town win condition" sense, but bad as in "scum would do this" kind of sense.

That's the whole rabbit hole of TSTBS and that's an actual stupid way to read someone, especially when we have no idea who they are, well at least I have no idea who they are.

If you looked, you would find out fairly easily. Anyway, yes, "too scummy to be scum" is a fallacy in a sense, but you seem to be looking at this from a very surface-level perspective. I want you to ask yourself, "What does scum!beginning gain from this?" and to critically evaluate it rather than going "Oh, no elimination is bad. Anyone who suggests something 'bad' is scum. Ergo, beginning is scum."

I think just from Murder 'hard-defending' ITB here I think they're not aligned if one flips scum.

I wouldn't call that hard defending. MURDERCAT is simply asking the same thing I'm asking in this post: to think more critically rather than giving a knee-jerk reaction.

@INB:

(See my sig. Though, I can't remember if I had updated it before you made this post.)

In The Beginning: That vote to, quite deliberately, put MC at E-1 was scummy af. The no-elimination vote is super weird, but doesn't make any sense for scum to do, and I don't he's done anything scummy since. Probably town.

"Scummy, weird, nothing else notable... Probably town"; like what? This doesn't seem like a natural or sensible conclusion; you think my behavior has been generally neutral at best and really scummy in some cases. Somehow, your net conclusion is I'm probably town??? Like, I could understand a

net

town read, but "probably todn" is really stretching it from your pov based on your observations.

Murdercat: I think everything he said during the exchange with Infinity was reasonable. Accusing Infinity of lying about his read strength... that's a bit scummy, but considering there is no actual logic to the read to start with, it's understandable. Has also raised a couple decent points. Null.

I will point out that this read has the opposite feel from your read on me, yet your conclusion is somehow null. That's all the more reason for concern.

I wanna TR the effort from a new player, I don't agree that what you pointed out are scumtells for a new player

{REDACTED}

You seem pretty darn defensive rn

Perhaps, perhaps not. It's always easiest to engage on things related to me, so you may see that as being a bit defensive.

Murder why aren't you trying to sort me

You seem particularly focused on MURDERCAT; unusually so in my opinion. I think it would be better if you didn't spend all your time tunneling a single player.

You've posted a lot about how you don't believe my SR on you, which makes no sense to me because you transparently are less energetic than usual

I find this to be false actually. My recent experience with MURDERCAT suggests this is an average or even above average energy level for him.

energy than this, same with haunted village

Or at least, an attention to nuance

These are like... two completely different things? Don't you think that you're stretching to make your MURDERCAT fit your read rather than your read fit MURDERCAT. Like, maybe you are right, and I'm not seeing it, but I think it would be good for you to step back and try looking at it from a different angle. It would serve as a precaution snd a sanity check that you aren't actually confirmation biasing yourself on this read.

Not answering for MC here, just stating that it's not a good hunting tool.

(As well as 262 and others:) Toogeloo has been doing some generally good posting; I'm gonna put them in my town pile for now.

I’m not just disregarding it being openwolfing, but I also wanna give players respect and not think they’d be that reckless.

And that's the definition of WIFOM. I agree--you don't have to scum read them for it, but I don't really agree you can give it as little weight as you seem to be.

I SRed Ari, Titus, and Johnny partially for activity

You definitely shouldn't be scum reading Ari for activity. Ari tends to be busy and less active.

Oh, good catch Italiano. E-1 this early is a bit much.

Either what this is referring to has been yeeted by the Host or I am not following

Hadn't you read that post by that point in time? Seems a bit weird you're responding to it now.

you cannot say the argument is weak when someone who doesn't know them says that they're scummy for it.

Except... it is weak... regardless of meta.

[In the beginning]

VOTE: Infinity

[In the beginning]

Don't agree that they're different things, the more energy someone has, the more they will be diving into nuance and things like that.

And I still fundamentally disagree with your disagreement. Energy is a state of being; energetic players are more responsive and engaged with the game; less energetic players are more leisurely and watchful. Diving into nuance and stuff like that is different; that's a reflection of how deeply someone is reading. You can be engaged but not reading deeply. Likewise, you can be reading deeply and carefully but not engaged and active within the game.

What did you think of me reversing my read?

It doesn't feel right. You seemed to just suddenly flip positions without a good progression. In other words, you spent a bunch of time hammering away at MURDERCAT only to do a seemingly last second reversal.

I do not see it as a town's solving mindset, who would actively be trying to find scum rather than just give in

This is very general, and I think you're discarding the fact that every situation, every post, has a surrounding context. The other issue is not looking at the big picture. What I mean is you need to consider a player's general posting pattern. What are there posts suggesting in general? Focusing too much on individualistic posts doesn't work because there are too many variables at play, and too little info from any single post.

it is 100% stupid to clear someone for TSTBS

Never did I say it was a clear. What I did say was that looking at this at a very black and white, "This is bad. Thus, it comes from scum," is a very narrow perspective, and I'm requesting that you look at it from a wider angle. Consider it a game of probabilities; is it more probable scum did this or is it more probable that town did it, not is it good or is it bad.

@Beginning

, why do you have a request to specifically not use the abbrevation of INB, when that's not even an abbrevation of your name. ITB would be

I'm requesting it because at least one player has abbreviated my username as INB, and I think it's a poor and potentially confusing abbreviation.

I was warned that Normals were slow... I had no idea.

They move at a walking pace. Also, it's only slow when you compare it to large themes, especially when the large themes have a bunch of fluff posters.

I was warned that Normals were slow... I had no idea.

They move andante, at a walking pace. Also, it's only slow when you compare it to large themes, especially when the large themes have a bunch of fluff posters.

[In the beginning]

Meh, the game seems to have stalled. I don't feel super confident in either wagon, and I think scum are okay with both of them leading. Thus, I would be very hesitant to vote for either wagon.

[In the beginning]

Sure.
VOTE: Infinity

Yesterday's lim was clearly a town flip, and no one even bothered to ask for a claim.

[In the beginning]

Johnny, Titus, and MURDERCAT are town.
JacksonVirgo and Infinity are scum.

Unsure on the third one.

[In the beginning]

Yesterday's lim was clearly a town flip, and no one even bothered to ask for a claim.

Same issue with Momrangal, it's easy to say this in retrospect

I said this before the flip as well and got ignored:

Meh, the game seems to have stalled. I don't feel super confident in either wagon, and I think scum are okay with both of them leading. Thus, I would be very hesitant to vote for either wagon.

It's not expressed as strongly, that is true, but the sentiment is very much so there.

Cool, care to explain?

Yes, the way you're posting here is just busy work. You aren't saying anything of subsistence. Furthermore, the way you are trying to spin Momrangel and my takes on the wagons yesterday when we both clearly expressed reservations

before the flip

makes it clear to me that you are more intent on shading people than finding actual scum.

MURDERCAT is town based on how Infinity has interacted with them.
Johnny is town based on the wagon setup yesterday.

Come on?! Really? So I've just been twiddling my thumbs here huh?

Resorting to the AtE already huh?

Italiano voters convince me that's a better vote than titus

I would say Italiano's last few posts are enough evidence to at least vote for him. Titus needs time to work her magic, so I'm giving her that time.

VOTE: Italiano

Infinity seems to be a dead wagon, and days are apparently 7 days now, so we should strive to get more done.

[In the beginning]

What do you think about me pushing JV and italiano too?

I don't really have an opinion on that at this point. I just think the way you handled MURDERCAT earlier didn't seem like you were trying to sort him so much as to get him to confess to being scum. There's still a chance you're town especially if MURDERCAT is actually scum, but I put that interaction as very likely TvS.

What!!! I'm on page 12 only and

ItalianoVD

is one of my townreads so far

??? This is in response to what? Seems a bit overdramatic...

This is what in working off of, in all its terrible glory

So... You have only one scum read right now? And what are the stars about?

there's a tone that I can't quite describe but it feels like fake curiosity

I guess I do have an opinion: I mostly agree with this take. Jackson seems to be asking questions more for the sake of asking questions rather than solving the game. It's all busy work and not actual solving.

JohnnyFarrar and Titus.

Why from those two specifically?

I actually like this. Flat out backing off of this claim is pro-town considering no deaths tn. Scum would probably continue to fake this claim.

I think this is actally a good point. Even if it was clearly a joke, scum might want to keep it "up in the air" in case they wanted to use it as a crumb for a fake claim they do later.

@Mara, @Beginning, why does this wagon make Infinity scum? I am now lost again in why you suspect them here.

My Infinity read is 100% based on Infinity's interactions with MURDERCAT early day 1. It has nothing to really do with the wagon.

You were offwagon so this isn't the worst post, but why didn't you ask for a claim?

Fair. I think my thought process at the time was Gamma Emerald had already posted intent, so I figured that Statue would see that as a request for a claim. Johnny proceeded to hammer in about 12 hours from intent, and I don't think Statue was on during that time period. In other words, even if I did ask for a claim, it probably wouldn't have made a difference. I guess I should recalibrate how I am reading Johnny because now that I think about it, shutting off communication there was 1) very survivalistic (since Johnny was the primary other wagon) and 2) pretty antitown (because after all, Johnny hammered a town PR before they had a chance to officially claim.) I still think the wagon and game state at the end of day 1 though suggests that both slots were town and Johnny just made the mechanically wrong move, but it is still something to watch more closely.

[In the beginning]

SHEEEEEEEP and why does this feel like you're aiming at Mom when Gamma actually claimed intent - the usual point for a claim to happen, and Jonny hammered?

This really feels like you are twisting this in an attempt to find something scummy in it.

I'M MR TOWNSEEKS LOOK AT MEEEEE.

Once more, you don't appear to be reading me in good faith here. The wall posting is a style of posting, not an attempt to attract (or detract attention).

Aight my spicy solve rn is in Jonny, Beginning and Catto.

It's definitely spicy.

Mine happens to be Jackson, Infinity, and you rn.
VOTE: Jackson

[In the beginning]

Yeah, Ari is town here. Look elsewhere please people.

[In the beginning]

Infinity, Jackson, or Flea today please.

[In the beginning]

VOTE: Infinity
I'm sensing a shift in the balance of power.

VOTE: Aristo-faynes

I like Haschel, they make me feel bad about myself

Ari is town. I'm 77% sure of it.

[In the beginning]

Because we both know "ewwww vanity wagon!" will be called.

This doesn't (at least for me) satisfactorily answer the question asked.

I think you could be scum with Ari though..

Seriously?!

my opinion is that these votes should move to ari or flea

Admittedly, I didn't look too hard, but please remind me why you think Ari is scum here.

we should consolidate into that 1v1

We have time, and quite frankly, a no lim in this situation isn't the end of the world. Not preferable, yes, but none of us are really obvious kill targets, and the extra info will benefit us. I don't think we should be forcing a 1v1, especially not when one of them is a slot I am not considering limming today. At all.

[In the beginning]

I strongly think Infinity and MURDERCAT are anti-aligned. MURDERCAT's recent posting is very ???.

[In the beginning]

Eh, not particularly feeling Toogeloo, but nor am I opposed.

[In the beginning]

VOTE: Infinity

[In the beginning]

Why should I not have townread Ari?

[In the beginning]

I was as sure in that read as in my other reads. Nothing more, nothing less.

[In the beginning]

Yes, well, I made up an arbitrary number. It's a subjective probability anyway.

[In the beginning]

Momrangal and Johnny town.
Dannflor scummyish.
MURDERCAT and Infinity are anti-aligned.
No significant read on anyone else.

[In the beginning]

No Titus read.
Dannflor read is based on JacksonVirgo posting. I am ignoring the rep-out for all alignment purposes.
I lean towards Infinity being the scum, but it could go either way at this point tbh.

[In the beginning]

I have no clue. I haven't thought about that stuff. Why would it have been on Titus?

[In the beginning]

Haschel also asked Johnny for a summary, but I guess that's a good point.

[In the beginning]

Sadly, you'll need a fifth vote. Best get started on making your case.

[In the beginning]

Heat check: Beginning flips mafia gunsmith

I'm not a gunsmith.

[In the beginning]

I was as sure in that read as in my other reads. Nothing more, nothing less.

I just want you to explain the reasoning that led you to townread ari. That's all

Can you stop dodging the question please

I'm not dodging it. I just don't think it's worth my time to answer it, but if you insist, it boils to some basic reasoning. 1) Ari by his work schedule tends to be lower activity than most people 2) Tons of people were pushing him for what seemed to amount to basically activity-related reasons and 3) When he did post, his posts seemed meaningful enough to me. They certainly didn't ping me. My conclusion was thus that it was a wagon being pushed by scum looking to score an easy miselimination.

[In the beginning]

And if I flip town? What are you going to say tomorrow then?

[In the beginning]

Nothing. I haven't reanalyzed and don't care to do so rn.

[In the beginning]

*crickets*

[In the beginning]

I like my vote where it is currently. I strongly believe the claim is scum!Infinity true-claiming.