Open 90 - Trendy and Subversive C9 Mafia Wins! before 656

[iamausername]

Vote: Azrael

. Obvscum.

[iamausername]

So after all that confusion, I'd like to point out that retrowiz was actually right originally; sekinj posted first, not strife. And if you were going for who

voted

first, it's still not strife, it's me.

On that subject, sekinj. No random vote. Why not?

If I wasnt happy with my vote on Farside I'd be voting you now, Strife.

What happened to this, Mirth? You've dropped your vote on farside, and yet I don't see no strife vote.

[iamausername]

I'm with sekinj on this one, I don't see retro's random voting shenanigans as scummy at all and am pretty confused as to why anyone would, frankly. He thought he'd typed the wrong name and corrected himself. How is that scummy?

And hey, I sure did lay down a gnarly random vote. Why should we be lynching sekinj/strife, Azrael?

[iamausername]

I was under the impression we were still in the random vote stage.

As we're not, do you have any more serious thoughts on who should be lynched today?

[iamausername]

I almost never base my suspicions on mistakes, but rather on tone and word choice. It usually serves me well.

Whatever you're basing them on, do you want to share those suspicions with the rest of us? All you've said so far about anyone else is that sekinj is "the most protown person here".

---

This post might be a little hypocritical if I left it at that, because I haven't really given much myself either. I guess I'm finding Mirth and farside most suspect for pushing so hard on retro's 'correcting' his random vote when it seems fairly obvious to me that his doing so was entirely unrelated to his alignment.

But I'm also aware that I always, always find farside scummy. I think the only game of hers I've read where I didn't was the one where I replaced her, and had definitive proof that she was town sitting in my PM box before I read the thread.

[iamausername]

His correction was not necessary.

I completely agree.

Yet he did it anyways thinking it would effect how we view him.

Not so much.

[iamausername]

But saying "Sekinj seems to be the most pro-town player" is not something I see a pro-town player doing. This statement needs to be backed up - how could you get such a read so soon?

I don't think that saying someone "seems to be the most pro-town player" is particularly helpful, particularly when there's no accompanying list of who seems to be the most scummy, but I don't see why it's such an unbelievable thing for him to have such a read at this point. It's not like he's saying "sekinj is 100% confirmed town and anyone who votes for her is scum scum scum!".

[iamausername]

either your scum partners, or a masons...I'll hold that verdict for a bit though.

Well, since it's impossible to have masons in this setup, I know which one I'd go for.

Unvote, Vote: Mirth

. Az could definitely do with being less vague, but I'm still finding Mirth considerably scummier than him at this point.

[iamausername]

I never said you were scum with farside. I actually think your buddy is strife.

Why is retro scummy for not knowing the setup?

[iamausername]

IAUN's actions have been justifiable except for the early "sek is most pro-town" comment. Of the 100ish posts made in the game, this one certainly stands out.

I assume you mean Azrael, because I never said that.

Post 50: I don't understand how Mirth can drop someone as a suspect so quickly to focus on someone else. She had her suspcioun on Strife, but dropped it rather quickly for Retro. Just odd considering how she sticks to one person for a bit before moving on to the next.

Yeah, this is what makes me suspect a Mirth/strife scumteam at the moment. It feels a lot like scum distancing tactics, since they've both totally ignored each other after this early spat.

[iamausername]

Or it could be Mirth/Farside. Or Mirth/Retro. Or Mirth/Az, if we want to talk about possible distancing. Strife got eclipsed for the time being. He earned some early scum points, but then Retro and Az came along. You seem to think I am scum, so question for you: regardless of my alignment (that is independently of me and my actions), do you think Strife is scum. (I am asking here if you think Strife is scum in isolation)

I'd put him at third place individually (with Az in second). Haven't got any solid evidence against him, but I'm getting a generally neutral read from him, and a pro-town vibe from the other three (yeah, even farside. I'm surprised too.)

Only having 7 players in the game is not nearly 'scary' enough to warrant such extreme language.

You joined the site when newbie games were still seven players, so you've played them before, so how can you say how 'scary' it is for those of us who haven't? I'm finding it a little hard to adjust to myself, so I don't see any reason to doubt retro's sincerity in that comment.

[iamausername]

Iam, if I'm in first and Az is in second, why aren't you theorizing an Az/Mirth scumpair as vocally.

Because I think a Mirth/strife pair is more likely. I don't automatically think the two scummiest players are the most likely scumpair. Pairing tells are different from individual tells.

BTW, don't talk about your protown vibes please.

I don't think it's a bad thing to do in this size of game.

[iamausername]

I feel Iam is pushing her, but his vote is not on her.

Uh, check again.

farside, Azrael, why aren't you voting?

[iamausername]

Well, that's less vague. Excellent.

Do you disagree with the points I raised in your defense?

[iamausername]

Should two people claim cop, we would then have one guaranteed scum. We then have a 50% chance of guessing right instead of a

14%

chance of guessing right (barring all other circumstances). Even if we guess wrong we will then have a guaranteed scum the next day...

28%. Two in seven, not one in seven.

@Iam I don't disagree with you, I just think that defending people is something that only someone with extra knowledge can safely do.

Well, if I see a flawed argument, I'm going to point out the flaws in it, no matter who it's addressed to.

Besides, if I was scum why would I vote for someone who has no votes? Mirth or retrowiz would be much better targets, setting them up for a hammer would be easy. I don't get scum vibes from them so I am not voting for them.

W-W-W-W-WIFOM!! This could be a calculated move to make yourself appear more townie, and looks moreso for you pointing out how townie it makes you look.
If you were scum, you could have set either Mirth or retro up to be hammered, yes, but you'd be under heavy scrutiny tomorrow when they turned up town (assuming you'd go for the one who wasn't your buddy if one of them was).

Is the default claim not regular townie? Are we not all trying to convince everyone else that that is what we are?

The default claim is "town" with no indication of whether you're a power role or not.

[iamausername]

Iamausername do you think Az lastest comment isn't disconcerning in the least? You seem to be the only one really defending him.

By that, I assume you mean his comments about the cop claiming? I don't see any advantage to be gained for scum by saying "Hey, I was thinking the cop should come out, but then I realised that's a bad idea." It's something he probably should have kept to himself, but I don't think it's overwhelming evidence against him.

I'm a lot more bothered by this:

Besides, if I was scum why would I vote for someone who has no votes? Mirth or retrowiz would be much better targets, setting them up for a hammer would be easy.

When he made his vote, I was thinking he looked more pro-town for it, for pretty mush the reasons he states here, but when he immediately followed it up with this post, it seemed more like he deliberately chose a less popular target for his vote just so he could say this and "prove" he isn't scum.

Mirth and Iam interaction that bugged me early on.

What interaction was this?

I would think that being one of four people voting would not put me under that much pressure, especially if I was voting in as indecisive a spot as third.

What makes you think third vote is an 'indecisive' spot? Common knowledge seems to suggest the exact opposite, actually (see here)

It's the same as playing a 9 player game with a d1 mislynch.

No, it really isn't. In that game, you've got a whole day's worth of voting patterns and so on to analyse that we didn't have when this game started.

[iamausername]

Yeah, this is Lylo, so NOBODY VOTE.

If we have a deputy, I think they should claim right now, since we now know there's no cop, so a deputy has no useful power besides claiming. If we have a doctor, they should avoid claiming today unless they start looking likely to be lynched.

Need to reread Day 1, since my #1 scumteam pick was obviously wrong.

[iamausername]

Yeah, that's kind of the whole idea of the setup. It's trendy and subversive to have deputies with no guarantee of a cop and nurses with no guarantee of a doctor, you see.

We started with:

1 Mafia Roleblocker
1 Mafia Goon
1 Cop OR Nurse
1 Doctor OR Deputy
3 Townies

We now have:

1 Mafia Roleblocker
1 Mafia Goon
1 Doctor OR Deputy
2 Townies

[iamausername]

deputy would only have info when cop dies right? if there is no cop to die doesn't that mean deputy would not have any powers hence no information?

This is correct. A deputy won't have any investigation results, and never will, as we know there's no cop.

The reason I think the deputy should claim is that we get a confirmed innocent if they go uncountered, or we narrow down a 2/5 chance of hitting scum today to 1/2 chance if scum does decide to counter. Either way, it narrows down the search for scum. And that's the only power the deputy will ever have.

If everyone agrees that the deputy should out him/herself, I think we should do it in a popcorn claim style; vote on a person to go first claiming deputy or not deputy, then they pick the next person, and so on until we've all claimed.

iam - for agreeing with me about retro. feels like buddying.

Do you think I was buddying with you or retro? Why do you think it was buddying, and not simply a town player agreeing with your eminently reasonable position?

Iam also did it to Strife when strife said I was the most town player, who we know was town.

I assume you mean Az, since strife definitely didn't say that. Again, why do you think it was buddying?

He is also coaching in his post 17, which seems scummy.

Why? If retro were my scumbuddy, as I assume you are insinuating, don't you think I'd have explained this to him during the night?

---

I've got a night off tonight, so I'm going to get on with a reread and give you a good ol' PBPA within the next few hours.

Right now I'll say that either Mirth/farside or retro/sekinj seem like more plausible pairings than any other, from what I remember, but I might unearth some evidence to the contrary when I do my reread. I'll get back to you soon.

[iamausername]

If everyone agrees that the deputy should out him/herself, I think we should do it in a popcorn claim style; vote on a person to go first claiming deputy or not deputy, then they pick the next person, and so on until we've all claimed.

I think if there was a deputy they would have said something by now. Doing this just seems like a waste of time.

Eh, I guess. I'd still like everyone to explicitly claim deputy or not deputy, but yeah, the order probably doesn't matter.

I'm not a deputy.

---

And here comes the promised PBPA:

farside

Is definitely reading as solidly pro-town to me. If there's anything that worries me about her D1 play, it's that she kept her vote off of anyone for most of the day; I'm a little worried about a lack of commitment to any one position. This could be a sign of scum waiting to see which way the votes are flowing, but could equally be a sign of town who hasn't figured out any clear idea of who the scum is. I'm leaning towards the latter, because most of her attacks do feel genuine.

Also having trouble seeing a scum partner for her; Mirth seems like the obvious choice on the surface, but (and feel free to call WIFOM on this if you like) I've never seen scumbuddies follow each other's thoughts so closely early on.

Mirth

Was my #1 scum pick yesterday, but since the person I suspected as her partner flipped town, I need to re-evaluate.

Reading Mirth in isolation makes a Mirth/farside pairing look more palatable, actually. Mirth's early voting farside to see how she'd react looks a lot like early distancing. If Mirth is town, I don't know what she expected to achieve with this. How would you expect scum farside to react differently to "my vote on you is for a serious reason, but I'm not telling you what it is!"?

I still really don't like how Mirth makes such a big deal about retro 'correcting' his random vote. Also, disagreeing with her assertion that "half the reason to do anything in this game is to convince others that you are town", although that's more of a game theory thing than any alignment indication, I guess.

As of Post #97, I'm now thinking the most likely explanation for the apparent Mirth/farside link is Mirth deliberately setting farside up for a fall if she goes down. (AKA buddying).

Oh hey, someone brought up my WIFOMish reason to not think Mirth/farside are scum together already. Aaaaand, Mirth responds with this: "being obviously in agreement with someone doesn't automatically exclude anyone from being a scum pair. Don't write us off so quickly." Wow. I can't see why a town player would be arguing

for

the possibility of themselves as scum with anyone. I really think scum Mirth is buddying with town farside.

Post #121. Mirth responds to my accusations by asking why I specifically think she's scum with farside, when I actually made no mention of a possible partner for her at that time. She's really pushing a farside connection.

sekinj looks like a more likely partner for her than retro; the consistent overstating of retro's mistakes doesn't seem like bussing, while she attacks sek quite often, but never seems to put her above retro as a suspect; textbook distancing, I'd say. Also think there's some significance to the fact that Mirth brings up almost every possible partner for herself

besides

sekinj between #121 and #156.

retrowiz

retro is clearly very newbie, which doesn't tell me anything much either way on his alignment. Not a lot of substance from him early on.

Suggesting Mirth/farside as masons in #115 is indeed scummy, as Mirth pointed out; regardless of the fact that there's no chance of masons in the setup, it's rolefishing.

Yeah, there really isn't a lot here to analyze. He's pushed a Mirth/farside pairing, so if he's scum, I'd guess sekinj as his partner.

sekinj

sekinj thinks random votes are stupid. Her alternative method for getting the game started is to ask "who here is evil?" OK, I hope that works out for you, kiddo.

Post #98: The accusation that Mirth and farside are ignoring Az is odd, and may be an attempt to distract attention away from retro. I still agree with sekinj's defence of retro, but it is somewhat fishy that she readily gives retro the benefit of the doubt for his mistake but fails to do the same for Azrael.

Post #136 does not seem at all sincere.

I don't care what sekinj says, her retro vote did pretty much come out of nowhere.

Post #200. "I won't drop the hammer, but I have no problem with the Az lynch." So, so scummy. Also, you haven't examined the arguments against Az carefully? Why the hell not? In fact, throughout Day 1, sekinj put in little comments nudging the Azrael wagon along, while keeping herself pretty distanced from it. Yeah, scummy scum scum.

---

USERNAME'S SCUMTEAM PICKS

:

1. Mirth/sekinj
2. retro/sekinj
3. Mirth/retro
4. farside/sekinj
5. farside/Mirth
6. farside/retro

I've got a lot more evidence against Mirth individually, but I don't really see any scumteams besides the top two as altogether likely, so a sekinj vote looks pretty good.

[iamausername]

How is 97 buddying exactly? I'm answering a question that is horribly obvious.

Just something in the way you said "I can answer this for farside, if she doesn't mind" rather than just straight answering the question feels off to me.

As for town players arguing for possibilities that they're scum, well because I always do it. I *HATE* it when people write something off off hand and when people soft-claim town. I do neither. I've played the "well I might be scum card" both as town and as scum.

Do you mind digging up some links to games where you've done this as town before? It seems so counter-intuitive to me. Especially when elsewhere you say "half the reason to do anything in this game is to convince others that you are town"; I don't see how this could help with that aim.

As for 121, here's the explanation:

either your scum partners, or a masons...I'll hold that verdict for a bit though.

Well, since it's impossible to have masons in this setup, I know which one I'd go for.

Unvote, Vote: Mirth

. Az could definitely do with being less vague, but I'm still finding Mirth considerably scummier than him at this point.

You said this in reference to Retro saying that Farside and I either had to be scum or masons. You said we can't be masons so you'd lean toward scum. I asked why you'd think I'm scum with Farside. Does that make it clearer?

That does make sense, yeah. I just meant it as you two being scum is more likely than you two being masons, since that is impossible, not that I actually thought it was a likely scum pairing, but I can certainly see why you'd interpret it otherwise.

---

sekinj, do you want to try answering my questions to you in #222? And, while you're at it, why do you think the town feeling you get from farside is 'fake' this time?

[iamausername]

I don't believe that farside is scum.
I don't believe that Mirth and retro are scum together.
Therefore, by process of elimination, sekinj must be scum.

At this point, I can't see anything convincing me that these conclusions are incorrect, so I'm going to be bold and

Vote: sekinj

.

[iamausername]

Mirth/farside is definitely not the scumpair. They've had plenty of opportunity to quicklynch sekinj, and haven't taken it.

[iamausername]

Oh no, I do think you're scum. I was just making an observation.

[iamausername]

I don't know how often you are online, but doing such an act could have been a loss for the town.

I am online a

lot

. And more importantly, it could only be a loss for town if I'm voting town, and I'm pretty sure I'm not.

Also Retro needs to answer the above as well. He seems to be MIA which bothers me.

I will be away till 22nd. I might be able to comment now and again, but sporatic at best.

[iamausername]

So your theory is somewhat flawed with Retro away. Retro could still be scum with Mirth and even you.

My theory is that the lack of quicklynch proves that you and Mirth are not the scumteam. Nothing more, nothing less.

The fact that I think sekinj is scum is not related to the lack of quicklynch; I thought sekinj was scum before I even made the vote, that's why I made it. I might be a little reckless, but I don't vote for people I don't think are scum in lylo.

Yeah, I know we have to vote at some time today, but to scream at everyone not to vote, and then lay down a vote without dicussion is pretty scummy. He examined everyone thoroughly, but at this point he should have fos'd first, or just announced his intentions.

I don't do FoSes, and I think the last sentence in Post #226 made it pretty clear where my vote was headed. I gave plenty of time for you to convince me against this, and you failed to do so. sekinj, if you are not scum, who is? And that's both of them, please, not just one.

[iamausername]

OK, looking back, your top suspects appear to be retro, then me. Do you think we're scum together? What do you think the chances are that one of us is scum with either Mirth or farside?

[iamausername]

Is there any particular reason that you're not voting me, then?

[iamausername]

You try too hard.

[iamausername]

USERNAME'S SCUMTEAM PICKS

:

1. Mirth/sekinj
2. retro/sekinj

Just wanted to point out the order here, given farside's concern about the multitude of agreement on retro/sekinj as the scumpair.

That said, Mirth's response to my initial big post alleviated some of my concerns about her and bridged the gap between the two possible pairings in my mind, and it wasn't a very big gap to start with.

What retro has to say for himself when he returns may change things again, of course.

[iamausername]

Mirth/farside is definitely not the scumpair. They've had plenty of opportunity to quicklynch sekinj, and haven't taken it.

With sek's retro vote, this logic can probably now also be used to show that I am not scum with either Mirth or farside.

Obviously, I already knew that, but it might be helpful for the rest of you.

[iamausername]

If retro is lynched and is town, we lose.

How do you think this is going to happen, exactly? Did you miss the part where, if you were actually town, retro would now be confirmed scum to you?

[iamausername]

Because if Iam and I were scum together, we would have quick lynched Retro with your vote already. If you did not think we were out of the picture as a scum pair, why did you not object to my math before.

I just ignored it, exactly like mine was ignored.

Are you actually contesting the fact that it is now proven that there is only one scum among Mirth/farside/iamausername, or are you just whining because we aren't giving you enough attention?

[iamausername]

*That's

at most

one scum, rather.

[iamausername]

Well, from where I'm sitting, the 22nd is now over, so retro should definitely be back by now.

Mod, can we get a prod on retrowiz please?

[iamausername]

If I was scum with farside or Mirth, you'd be lynched already, retro. There's no way that sekinj is not scum if you are town.

sekinj, the reason I am voting you is because I don't believe that farside is scum, and I don't believe that Mirth and retro are scum together. It's clearly in your interest to convince me that I am wrong about one of these things. Since you apparently agree with me on the first, it'll have to be the second.

[iamausername]

Hi, this is me not hammering retro, thus proving that I am not scum with sekinj.

[iamausername]

I know, I'm just saying, that's another possibility eliminated.

[iamausername]

That means the only way for retro to be town is if farside is scum with sekinj.

I'm considering going ahead and hammering, because I really think it's retro/sek now that Mirth/sek has been eliminated as a possibility, but I'm going to reread the game again before I do so, just to make completely sure that my town read on farside is right.

[iamausername]

Completed reread, am happy to

Unvote, Vote: retrowiz

.

[iamausername]

I assume this means you're not scum with sekinj then, farside?

[iamausername]

So, you're not going to kill me tonight, then? Thanks in advance.

[iamausername]

Hey, I'm the doctor. What're you gonna do now, sekinj?

I protected farside Night 1, because I was most sure that she was town.

I protected Mirth Night 2, because at that point I was basically certain that sekinj was scum, and figured she'd decide she'd have an easier time convincing farside that I was scum, since she'd expressed more doubt yesterday. Looks like I was right.

So, if she counters, consider the fact that she completely failed to claim at any point either a) yesterday, when she was in risk of being quicklynched or b) when she checked in today, both of which would be times you'd pretty much have to expect it. If she doesn't, then I guess she's going to have to pull out a case on farside, since Mirth is pretty much confirmed town by my protection. Good luck, sek!

Vote: sekinj

. There's no way it's anyone else.

[iamausername]

I really do *not* like the hammer vote, especially considering I asked Retro to claim.

Yeah, there was no point in me waiting for a claim, since if he claimed anything besides vanilla townie, I'd have known he was lying.

[iamausername]

Does that count as breadcrumbing? I've never really known how to make a breadcrumb without being too obvious about it, so I generally just don't try.

I was pushing for someone to claim deputy yesterday though, because I always find it so much easier when I have guaranteed scum. Didn't think there was much chance that scum would go for it, but it was worth a try.

[iamausername]

@iam: although you have claimed doc, I'd still like you to address the points in my case.

No thanks. I'm confirmed town since nobody has countered me, so why would I need to?

[iamausername]

@iam: too much tunnel vision. Your suspicion of me started after I made a case on you, and hasn't let up since. why?

That's really not what happened. D1, I said I had pro-town vibes from you, retro and farside.

At the start of D2, these were proven wrong because there had to be at least one scum in there, since Mirth was the only other player still alive. This is when my suspicion started. Rereading the thread pretty much cemented you as scum, with either Mirth or retro as your partner, because like I said at the time, no other pairing looked at all likely.

It had absolutely nothing to do with the fact that you made a case against me.

[iamausername]

I see I missed some posts while I was typing that. Sek did not counterclaim. That was what I was waiting for with my stall post. If nobody has any objections, I will hammer now.

I sure don't.

[iamausername]

Damn. I am never going to trust my gut on farside again.

[iamausername]

I hope this doesn't mean that Iam is going to try and lynch me in every game he's see's me in because he can't read me.

I'll take each game as it comes. If I'm ever a vig in a game with you though, you're going down Night 1.

And, OK, sekinj. I'm sorry. I was wrong.