Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[Adel]

pre-emptive OMGUS

vote:The Fonz

who is BillyTwilight?

have I ever played with Shanba before?

Will Erg0 take me at face value if I promise to always be sincere in this game?

[Adel]

Will Erg0 take me at face value if I promise to always be sincere in this game?

Are you promising to always be sincere? Or was that rhetorical question?

A sincere offer.

[Adel]

unvote, vote:cicero

[Adel]

why won't just take your lynch quietly and proudly like a man who wears pants?

[Adel]

why you gots to go and spoil me fun likes that?

you said that Simenon is more likely to be town than scum, and I happen to think that you would be more likely to say that if you are scum than if you are town. For a town player getting caught out in a random early day 1 wagon is annoying, for a scum player it can be deadly.

[Adel]

simenon is flippant. it ain't a otwn tell, and i suspect the only way you may suspect that it is is if you are scum and know that he is not, hence my vote on cicero.

[Adel]

Patience runs out on the junkie
The dark side hires another soul
Did he steal his fate or earn it
Was he force-fed, did he learn it
Whatever happened to his precious self control

Like him I'm tired of trying to heal
This tom-cat heart with which I'm blessed
Is destruction loving's twin
Must I choose to lose or win
Maybe when my turn comes I will have guessed

These are the horns of the dilemma
What truth is proof against all lies
When sacred fails before profane
The wisest man is deemed insane
Even the purest of romantics compromise

[Adel]

Haikus? Really?

just a joke for cicero, Adel and Guardian regarding iPick.

in iPick guardian was the mod, cicero and I were scum, and shated had a post restriction where he had to post in haiku and mention Nibbler in the last line.

his post restriction got in the way of him convincing the rest of the town that cicero and I were scum.

what were our scumtells in that game, btw?

~~~

maybe because of our generation we seem to be following the
{random voting}+{random bullshit} --> {random wagon} --> information for a serious wagon --> Day 1 lynch
recipe for how to conduct a day 1.

Is there a better way?

[Adel]

And I switched because it was clear to me the Cicero wagon wasn't going anywhere.

I'm unclear on how this was clear.

cicero/Simenon scumgroup +1

[Adel]

You get picked because people think you've got game. To gripe at that would be to diss your fans.

he also has a 2-0 record as town, scummy nominations from almost a half dozen players, and modesty to boot.

He plays one game at a time and plays it well. He doesn't spam up game threads, he doesn't type for the sake of getting words on the screen, and he doesn't lurk. He is a model mafia player and most of us can probably learn from him.

I am currently alive in three games (including this one), modding one, and back-up modding (for Guardian who will be on vacation) a second game.

I will have no excuse for not being alert and attentive in this game. I used to play in at least six games at a time, and my ability to win certainly suffered.

[Adel]

nope.

have we decided to let shamba, BT and Erg0 to slip quietly through this phase fo the game?

I don't buy the abandonment of the cicero wagon. We could've taken it a lot farther.

The two quiet players on the Oman wagon alarm me, but

Oh and Adel: Noted I got it, I think.

alarms me a little more. I don't like that he is alone on the cicero wagon with me right now.

@Oman: what exactly do you think it is that you got from that?

[Adel]

do you think it was a mistake to make a joke? Do you think it was a mistake to try to rationalize it as simply being a "joke"?

[Adel]

cicero, where are you?

[Adel]

hmmm, it may be different from what you are used to.
things to consider:
1. there are no idiots or assholes playing in this game
2. I am not distracted due to being in too many games
3. I doubt that tracks or traps will work well, unless they are really really subtle.
4. I would like Erg0 to take me at face value, if possible

[Adel]

The Fonz and Simenon may recall this playstyle from Basically Communist Mafia. Simenon may also remember the way I posted in Open 19. The Fonz probably remembers how I posted in Treestump mafia. Jitsu and Oman probably remember the way I posted during day 1 in Undergroud Mafia.

Just because I have never acted sane during a day 1 in a game we were in together doesn't mean that I don't have a record of acting sane during day 1s.

[Adel]

Though I'm not sure why Erg0 taking you at face value is critical.

*hint:*

3. I doubt that tracks or traps will work well, unless they are really really subtle.

[Adel]

Maybe it is just because she is, yet again, playing in a manner that attempts to confound. But I don't really care. If it feels and smells scummy to me, I'm voting for it. More often than not I'm correct.

First, it sounds like you can quantify the power of your scum smelling nose. Please share your proof that you really can smell scum more often than most.
Secondly, what have I done in this game that is scummy?
Third, how I am playing "in a manner that attempts to confound"?
By not attempting to confound am I attempting to confound?

You aren't a fan of the style of play you are used to me exhibiting... would you rather I clearly played in a devious and underhanded way?

[Adel]

unvote cicero, vote vollkan

223 does not seem sincere to me. I suspect he thinks that he will be able to get a mislynch on Jitsu more easily than the other players in this game.

[Adel]

@ shaft.ed would you call my play in this game conservative? It is the most recent game to end where I was town.

[Adel]

I didn't see any

openings

in his answer to

exploit

further .

Excuse me?

unvote vote: Jitsu

Unvote
Vote shaft.ed

Utterly opportunistic. This has to be a deliberate attempt to take that out of context, since I don't see how a townie who read the full post of Jitsu's couldn't understand his intention. Furthermore, he bolds some words in an attempt to distract from the larger picture.

I agree with Adel that vollkan looks likes he's trying to set up the Jitsu lynch. However, I'm not sure he would be if shaft.ed isn't scum, so I prefer this wagon.

I see Vollkan's attack as being more opportunistic than shaft.ed's. That post seems more like scum distancing to me than a genuine shaft.ed-scum attacking a townie. Shaft.ed's post got a little bit of attention on Jitsu, while Vollkan's seems like a real push.

[Adel]

Does this pot need stirring?

[Adel]

I think you need a new wagon shaft.ed, I don't think the Jitsu one is going anywhere. There is plenty of room up here though. Wanna wagon Vollkan with me for a while?

[Adel]

yeah, but like chunky milk, you just don't pass the smell test.

[Adel]

I guess I understand a different meaning of the word exploit than you. To me it's much more taking advantage of a situation to wrongly benefit yourself at another's expense. But consulting the dictionary I see that's not always the case. I've still never seen it used in such a context.

I commonly hear it in meatspace referring to "an opening to a solution". I don't think it is a valid scummy slip.

[Adel]

Simenon, cicero and (of course) vollkan are my best guesses for who the scum are.

[Adel]

Cicero left me out of the break down....

also, my vote on shanba was not a pressure to post wagon..though I guess it is turning into one.

cicero+ckd scum team +1

[Adel]

well if I was in ckd-scum's shoes and my scum buddy left me off of a list like that my impule would be "how do I mitigate the risk of other players identifying a connection between us" -- answered by making a post like ckd's.

I have trouble understanding the motivation for ckd-town making that post, lit is like waving a sign saying "I'm lurking!".

I can also see the posibility of ckd-scum making that post if cicero is town in an attempt to link the two of them... but I think it is more probable that it is part of the "we have to interact somehow" problem scummates face.

unvote, vote:curiouskaramdog

[Adel]

note that 259 and 260 were written while I ws writing 261. I'm even more happy with my vote now.

[Adel]

ckd -- you could totally use this as a chance to post some actual, you know, content and explain yourself. I wouldn't have said anything if you hadn't pointed it out -- I missed it!

I probably would've caught it much later in the game when I was doing my relationship breakdown analysis.

[Adel]

and again, is that the only reason I would have asked Cicero that...you really can not come up with any others?

the suspense is killing me, why don't you just tell us?

[Adel]

Jitsu is indeed a waffler.

no, he is simply a careful poster who simply hasn't adopted the bombastic style common here.

[Adel]

you are answering a question with a question?

your question was a response to my implied question.

[Adel]

Adel, you are

not usually so narrowed minded.

You cant see other reasons why i would ask Cicero that? Really you cant?

the part in bold is interesting. Did you forget that other players in this game know me?

[Adel]

CKD/Simenon pairing +1 for future reference and those keeping an Adel like score. I'm not tying myself to anyone.

qft, I have it on my card

Adel doesn't mention that I haven't mentioned Fonz when that should at least garner the same +1 to scum teams. So CKD notices that this is a dumb point, since he's the one who mentioned his own absence from the post soliciting input, and he makes a sarcastic comment. I laugh. Nothing bad there.

shit, you leaving him off was meaningless at this point in the game. It was him pointing it out that I found interesting.

[Adel]

did you miss this part?

I have trouble understanding the motivation for ckd-town making that post, lit is like waving a sign saying "I'm lurking!".

[Adel]

Adel, you are

not usually so narrowed minded.

You cant see other reasons why i would ask Cicero that? Really you cant?

the part in bold is interesting. Did you forget that other players in this game know me?

what is your point...I know nothing about what other players know about you...why didnt you bring this up, when I mentioned that my meta on you was that you play every game differently? What was the point of that post?

if your meta on me tells you that I play every game differently, why would you say that I am not normally so narrow-minded?

It seems to me like it is common for other players to accuse me of having tunnel vision, or being a raging bull or bulldozer or whatever.

[Adel]

CKD - why did mention my not mentioning you. I assume it was because, well, you weren't mentioned. DId you notice Fonz's absence from the (ha!) analysis as well? Why not mention that? Why am I the only one who wants to mention that?

again, you leaving the Fonz and ckd off is meaningless at this point. ckd pointing out that you left him off is interesting. Him not pointing out that you also left the Fonz off is less intersting.

I don't understand why, as town, he would point out that you left him off.

[Adel]

I don't understand why, as town, he would point out that you left him off.

for someone who boasts having such great logic, you want me to believe this?

it is logick. I still don't understand why you would point it out. If you tend to get nk'd by scum groups that include a player who doesn't mention you (which sounds like bullshit to me), by asking him why he didn't mention you, how did you think you could leverage that into proof that he was scum?
[quote="In a game with Jitsu, Oman, ckd and I, Mr. Flay]I do think Adel is ballsy enough to do this as scum (drop Korlash like a bad habit, and peg onto me as "certain scum"), and I cannot continue to excuse her bad play as being purely based in her tendency to crystallize around a specific, misguided theory. Whether or not she's scum (and someone will likely leap on this statement), the unwillingness to ever consider moving her vote for the rest of today is anti-town, and I am willing to punish that.[/quote]
For context, I replaced in, and rode korlash hard to a lynch. He was scum. Later I rode Mr. Flay hard to a lynch. He was town.
The only other game I can recall being in with ckd was House mafia where I rashly used a dayvig on another townie because I didn't stop to consider the larger set of possibilities. I also recall riding armix pretty hard in that game.

[Adel]

I couldnt figure out why Cicero would do a mini break down, but not mention me...obviously he wasnt doing that...

it is pretty common in my experience for people to drop some analysis on less than the entire population of living players.

Do the rest of you agree?

[Adel]

Adel: I don't understand what CKD's motives could be if he were scum and cicero wasn't.

WIFOM and to get words on the record. I think it is more probable that he was starting a distancing maneuver.

[Adel]

yeah, the wild & crazy parts.

[Adel]

logic is to logick as magic is to magick

logick and logic both have logos as a root.

Unlike the logical systems familiar to those with a backgroud in the social sciences, logick takes Gödel's incompleteness theorems into account when attempting to generate a prudent policy decision.

[Adel]

I hate Day 1s without a Night 0, or maybe I am just insecure about my scum hunting abilities day 1 with little to go on. not sure why the wagon is shifting to Shanba if he is not even posting at this site.

unvote

my last question to shanba still stands though..and you should consider my vote still there.

ckd voted for shamba in post 164. vollkan voted for shamba in 166, simenon in 180, and oman in 182.

Is this an unvote of a scumbuddy getting nervous about the rate of acceleration of his buddy's wagon?

[Adel]

The suspicion-jumping by multiple players throughout this game has made it difficult without spending a couple of hours with pen and paper rereading to follow exactly everyone's thought process.

perhaps this will help:

[Adel]

LOL

CKD/Shanba +1?

It appears that CKD might be defending Jitsu

CKD/Jitsu +1?

oh wait, CKD argued with shafted a bit today, obvious distancing?

CKD/shafted +1?

You know, I havent really seen interaction between CKD and Oman today

CKD/Oman +1?

You know Adel, this could be a grand scheme between you and I

CKD/Adel +1?

man, if I am hung/NKed and I flip town...you equations are going to come back and haunt you.

all I have down is:
cicero+simenon +1
cicero + ckd +1
ckd + simenon + 1

[Adel]

ckd voted for shamba in post 164. vollkan voted for shamba in 166, simenon in 180, and oman in 182.

ebwop: vollkan voted for shanba in 166, simenon voted shanba in 180, and oman simenon voted shanba in 182.

I was pointing out that the wagon on shanba was going speed, and you unvoted.

Unvote Vote: Oman

I dislike cicero's defence of himself.

posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:23 pm
this was Shanba's last post in this thread.

My contact with Adel (2-3 games)...she always plays different and I always tend to think she is scummy. Dont know why. I have played in two games with cierco and if I recall, he does vote hop quite frequently...

also still waiting,

vote shanba

posted Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:40 pm

I hate Day 1s without a Night 0, or maybe I am just insecure about my scum hunting abilities day 1 with little to go on. not sure why the wagon is shifting to Shanba if he is not even posting at this site.

unvote

my last question to shanba still stands though..and you should consider my vote still there.

posted Thu Jun 19, 2008 2:27 pm

so after no posting from shanba for four days ckd voted for him. two days later ckd unvotes him. four days of no voting ='s a vote, but six days of no voting ='s an unvote?

[Adel]

damnit, i fail:

ebwop: vollkan voted for shanba in 166, simenon voted shanba in 180, and oman voted shanba in 182.

[Adel]

Adel, you forgot Mini 458(?) you pushed for my lynch all day, until the end you "changed your mind"..I was still lynched...I was town, you were scum.

so is your point that I didn't have tunnel vision in a game played 9 months ago where I was scum?

[Adel]

the wagon shifted to shamba.. up to lynch -3, right? so if you wanted an answer to you question (the explicit reason you gave for your vote) I think that pressure whould've been a good thing.

not a reason to unvote.

[Adel]

AGAIN, I didnt like the quickness of the reason-lite votes...AND he wasnt posting..so I didnt like my vote

Adel, why do you keep pushing nothing as something?

why bail at lynch-3? especially since you didn't have a case on another player.

Adel, you forgot Mini 458(?) you pushed for my lynch all day, until the end you "changed your mind"..I was still lynched...I was town, you were scum.

for some reason when thinking about Adel I saw an intelligent woman who was open minded and openly reviewed all possibilites...if I had time I could reread those games to figure out why. But Adel is right....she did Dayvig a townie in house without thinking it through or even consulting the town, which contributed to a loss...she did ride Flay hard in Underground, when he was a townie....so yeah, she is known to tunnel vision, so apparently I am pulling that vision of Adel out of no where...

so I guess it isnt out of character for adel to only see the negative without reviewing all possibilities....

Why are you making posts like this one, where you quibble over me forgetting a game, a game that only re-enforces the point that you were conceding,

in the very same post!

You are reminding me of the CX debate tactic where you just say something to contest every point raised by an opponent, regardless of validity, in the hope that the way the judge scores the debate will heavily weigh the absence of uncontested points.

[Adel]

you are spamming up the thread to bury & evade legit cases against you.

[Adel]

334 is in response to ckd's latest

[Adel]

I see you still haven't worked out the color coded arrows. Why are vollkan, Shanba, and Erg0's Oman votes counted if random stage votes are supposedly removed, I thought these were random?.

crap, I messed up 166 was a vote by Jitsu for Shanba. I wrote down that it was a vote by vollkan for Shanba.

as for the others,

Vote Count 11

Oman[3] (Erg0, vollkan, Shanba)
Shanba[2] (Jitsu, Oman)
shaft.ed[2] (The Fonz, Simenon)
Erg0[1] (cicero)
Simenon[1] (BillyTwilight)
Jitsu[1] (shaft.ed)
curiouskarmadog[1] (Adel)


Not Voting[1] (curiouskarmadog)

shows the votes from vollkan->oman and ergo->oman still present. I left them on because to still be voting for a person at this point isn't random.
here is the fixed image:


Was it your idea to color code the arrows by time? I think I will try that for the end of day summery.

thanks for catching my mistake.

[Adel]

ckd bailed off of the Shamba wagon once it hit -3. He was attempting to use his vote for Shanba as a tool to get Shanba to account for his Cicero unvote/Oman vote in post 96.

His stated reason for unvoting was that he didn't like the speed of the wagon (yet it only got to lynch -3) but in his unvote post he left himself an opening to revote Shanba if he didn't like Shanba's reason for unvoting cicero and voting for Oman.

I don't see a Shanba mis-lynch as being a legitimate worry. ckd's explanation, restated a few times, doesn't make sense to me. When I pressure someone for information I want more pressure. I welcome people onto the wagon. ckd did not have a case on anther player that he moved on to. Bailing out because there suddenly more pressure doesn't make sense, especially sence he didn't have a case on another player. Two scenarios would make sense:
1. ckd is scum w/ Shanba
2. ckd knows that Shanba is town

~~~

ckd pointed out that cicero left him out of a player breakdown. the interaction between cicero and ckd following that seems really scummy.

the scumtell that I've left out up until now is that I believe scum are more interested in what other players think of them than townies are. I also think that scum like to collect the opinions of other players in order to better formulate a safe opinion to have, and identify perspective wagon to follow through on. Billy's most recent post is a scumtell due to this, as is ckd trying to dig information out of cicero.

the breakdown:

ckd-scum/cicero-town:

ckd was trying to get information out of cicero, or trying to tie himself to cicero (simenon's point)

ckd-scum/cicero-scum:

ckd was trying to distance from cicero, and pointing out a mistake of cicero's (leaving out his scumbuddy) before someone else caught it

ckd-town/cicero-town:

ckd is trying to get cicero on the record , since he is usually nk'd by people who neglect him in player breakdowns (ckd's defense, we're still waiting for evidence, which I doubt will be conclusive -- I totally don't buy it)

ckd-town/cicero-scum:

same as above.


Following my initial vote for ckd, his first line of defense is to say that I am not normally so close-minded. (265)
Two minutes later he speculates if I would've said anything about cicreo leaving him out if he hadn't pointed it out. (266)

265, 273, 274, are rhetorical attemts to control the dialog at this point. He wanted me to write his defense for him by listing reasons he could have a town motivation for his action. Once he gives up on this trick, he posts

did you miss this part?

I have trouble understanding the motivation for ckd-town making that post, lit is like waving a sign saying "I'm lurking!".

so the answer is "No, I really can not think of any other reason why CKD would ask why Cicero why he did not mention him in an apparent break down"

I didnt notice that Cicero left Fonz off as well, or I might not had made the comment the way I did. I thought the post was a mini break down of Cicero's thoughts on everyone. I was curious where I stood on that list. I think it is important to get those thoughts in now, versus later. One of the things I am noticing in my games when I am NKed, is that my killer does not really mention me the day(s) before my kill. So when I see someone (who I feel is doing a mini break down of players) not mention me...small alarms sound.

Also, since I dont feel like I have been not been contributing, I was wondering why I was left out...so not only did I want to know what Cicero thought, I was curious why he left me out...I thought my comment would spur conversation on the subject.

I couldnt figure out why Cicero would do a mini break down, but not mention me...obviously he wasnt doing that...


also adel, I think you do play differently every game in regards to your agreesiveness. But being narrow minded is a new thing. I was curious how someone with your experience could only think of scum theories why I would ask Cicero that question, but not think of any town reasons to do so. I guess I over estimated your ability to look at things from different prespectives (noted for future).

DO you think you tunnel vision or bulldozer?

why did he wait until this post to post his defense?

Note that here stumbles upon the next wave of his rhetorical defense: get Adel to argue that she is narrow-minded. Nice! I totally fell for it.

The framing of that (narrow minded) is far less than flattering. I approach scum hunting like I do a math or physics problem: I identify a promising or interesting approach and try to work it through. Sometimes that means eliminating a problematic variable via the lynch. It usually requires that I post with false confidence in order to get anywhere. On this side of the screen I am very agnostic about everyone's alignment. I see mafia as a random system that can only be narrowly tweaked. I usually have two or three closely competing theories for who is most likely to be scum as well as two or three closely competing theories for who could be a group of scum.

I feel like ckd had accomplished a pretty neat feat by discrediting me (narrow-minded) and seriously undermining the legitimacy of any case I may make in this game. I'm working too damn hard in this game to let that happen.

First of all I've won my last 5 games as town in a row, and 70% out of my last 10 games as town and 73% of my last 15 games as town. I survived in 3/11, and was nk'd or daykilled 6/11 and lynched twice for those wins.

I can identify scum, and my technique for identifying them works. I am not narrow-minded, I am effective.

Currently my biggest tell against ckd is that he fits my profile of scum:
1. no active scumhunting
2. fake votes on an easy target as a placeholder for actual activity
3. rapid response to any any attack that relies upon shifting the focus and responding to questions with diverting questions. Note his numerous posts on tangents which are then followed up by "what is your point". It is much more pro-town to attempt to just settle the case against you. ckd attempts to obfuscate it via volume of posts and attacking my credibility.

[Adel]

logick: it works, bitches.

[Adel]

I'm electing not to interact with ckd for a while, preferring civil company.

If the rest of you have any questions, I'll be more than happy to answer them.

[Adel]

I didn't post while you and ckd were going over that because I wasn't really sure of what was going on there. I was skimming the thread but not reading deeply. I felt the Shanba wagon was a weak wagon, and I missed ckd's contradictions between his stated reason for voting for Shanba (get pressure to answer a question) and his reason for unvoting Shanba (I really like his "this is n't a pressure wagon"). I knew I would get around to doing a voting diagram soon, and I don't trust anyone else's characterizations of wagons.

Now that I've established the time line and reasons for those votes, I see ckd vote and unvote as a significant tell that I did not understand at the time.

[Adel]

With all of the profanity in 344 I failed to notice that ckd had to type out [b] and [/b] fourteen times... without making an error or leaving a hanging tag.

Could that happen in the middle of a genuine emotional outburst?

[Adel]

I'm electing not to interact with ckd for a while, preferring civil company.

[Adel]

ok. Still, do you think the profanity was the result of a genuine emotional outburst, or was a calculated rhetorical device, or something else?

[Adel]

Jitsu is indeed a waffler.

no, he is simply a careful poster who simply hasn't adopted the bombastic style common here.

I lobbied pretty hard for Jitsu's inclusion in this game for that very reason: he is a careful poster who hasn't adopted the bombastic style common here.

The tone of ckd's recent posts directed at me is typical of many of our generation (ABR, BM, ect). I think Jitsu's style is better, and I've tried to re-incorporate some of his into mine.

vollkan attacked him for the very reason I wrote so many PM's to mith and others: of course I responded.

~~~

Why hasn't vollkan voted for Jitsu?

[Adel]

I'm extremely interested to hear Sim's thoughts on CKD's original response to Adel.

this is B.S.

unvote:ckd, vote: BillyTwilight

post or perish.

[Adel]

just because you are ignoring my question Adel, doesnt mean they will go away.

I think we've generated enough information for everyone else. If we were to continue the wall of words battle it would corrupt the signal:noise ratio and make it harder for town to identify scum, not easier.

No, I'm not going to answer your question. I don't like your tone, and I don't like your style, and I don't think that to continue our exchange would settle anything or help the town in any way.

[Adel]

if you honestly think I would play my 6th (7th? 8th? 9th?) game as scum the same way I played my second (which was also my first loss) than you are a silly goose. There are 10 other players in this game. I will answer any of their questions. Not your's, you scummy & distracting impolite so-and-so.

Seriously, I'm going to start answering your posts with a simple "ts;dr"

[Adel]

cicero+ckd+1
were up to two now.

unvote, vote:ckd

may as well leave my vote on who I think is scum rather than try to pressure a lurker.

@cicero, if you think any of his questions really are informative, just ask them yourself.

[Adel]

I don't remember that part of the armix case. I remember being pretty gung-ho about lynching him, but I don't really recall

why

. I doubt that you would significantly misrepresent that though, so I will cede the point-- I'm apparently making the same point against you that armix did in House mafia.

That point is not why I am voting for you, however.

~~~

Anyway, I think this is just a distracting thing you are doing that is increasing the signal to noise ratio. I think it is unwarranted and, frankly, seems like you running for the hills when you got beaten in an argument, aka scummy. I totally agree with keeping things civil but I've seen you use profanity, be very aggressive, flippant and sarcastic in this very game so what is it exactly that is putting CKD over the line?

I pointed out a scumtell that I observed, voted for him, and there was a sudden post explosion. Nobody (inculding myself) thinks that my case is conclusive or even close to overwhelming. Note that the ckd wagon sill include only myself.
The defensiveness of his response to me caught me by surprise.

that is the biggest load of bullpoopoo I have ever heard.

really does remind me of ABR and BM.

I don't play mafia to get into these little spats. They aren't worth my time, and they don't do a damn thing to help the town identify and lynch scum. In fact, by making the game much longer and harder to review, that make it harder to make connections between players and identify the important posts.

~~~

We can make a choice: we can expand this exchange to take up pages and page, or we can simplify it to the important parts, like I attempted to do in the post ckd responded to will all of the profanity in bold.

~~~

Meanwhile, The Fonz, Oman, BT, and Erg0 are slipping through without posting content.

[Adel]

Meanwhile, The Fonz, Oman, BT, and Erg0 are slipping through without posting content. Among other thins, I am really interested in if they are more willing to vote for me or ckd, vollkan or Jitsu.

~~~

Who nominated BT? Was it for the kind of posting he has shown here so far?

[Adel]

You are pushing that I am deliberating spamming this thread for scummy reasons. Adel, in all 3 games that we have shared (two most recent for everyone's reference: Underground mafia and House mafia) Havent I posted the same in regards to frequency and content length? When I get frustrated or "emotional", I tend to post frequently back to back. Please feel free to review those threads again before answering this question.

I think it is possible that you are trying to make our exchange as complicated as possible to that everyone will just shrug and decide that we are butting heads.

I do not recall you making insults when a person made a pont against you when you were town. I don't recall you being uncivil without a person insulting you first.

[Adel]

Fonz vs. shaft.ed? I hadn't thought about it. I don't have a significant tell against either of you at this point.

[Adel]

I am constantly under this pressure and make idiotic posts too. I believe "why didn't cicero include me" to be genuine here.

Thank you. It really can be this simple. So while we both see the following cicero-ckd interaction to be slightly scummy, you think that cicero is trying to associate himself with ckd, while I see ckd as the more probable scum.

[Adel]

@Oman: why have you made 20 posts in other threads since your last post in this game?

[Adel]

Why hasn't vollkan voted for Jitsu?

Because Jitsu is at 60 on my scumdar and I have no desire to vote Jitsu at this point in time.

Why does vollkan still have his vote on Oman?

[Adel]

I don't see it as being the

only

scummy reason. I can think of a couple reasons why ckd-scum wouldn't want to be on the shanba-town wagon.

[Adel]

If I was right about ckd's vote on Shanba being a matter of him trying to find a nice place to park his vote for a while, and the he unvoted because he didn't want the attention (and accountibility) of being part of a large wagon, then I would expect him to ignore Shanba after Shanba's return.

[Adel]

I assume when you get back, you will answer in a little more depth.

and I dont really think you are reading Adel's post

is pretty close to ignoring him, if his original reason for voting shanba was genunine.

If you are chasing scum based off of an early post, why give the potential scum a chance to get caught up on the thread and develop a safe opinion? ckd should press his case against Shanba, direct those questions, & not give him a chance to identify a way out! -- or admit that his orginal vote against Shanba wasn't part of scum-hunting.

[Adel]

I haven't noted anything that suggests it, or indicates that it is more likely than say a ckd-Erg0 team, or ckd+Fonz team, or a ckd+Oman team for that matter.

It looks like you will be the default lynch at deadline. Feel like doing some posty scumhunting now?

[Adel]

what is the vollkan scale? 0=town and 100=scum? Is a score of 60 supposed to be "60% chance of being scum"? If not, would you mind translating your scores to percentage chances?

For day 1 I'm usually happy if I feel that a person is more than 40% likely to be scum.

[Adel]

I don't want to get too sidetracked here, but it makes more sens if you take yourself out of it: 8:3 = ~27% chance for any one player other than myself being scum. Based upon my study of completed mini-normals (now six months out of date), day 1 lynches have ~20% (19 and change IIRC) chance of being accurate, while the hypothetical fully random lynches have a 25% chance of being accurate. Those percentages go up after each NK and mislynch, and down after each accurate lynch.
Pegging your perception of other players to a % chance would probably help you review a completed game and identify where & when you were especially insightful or misguided.

~~~

If you did have me at 70, why didn't you vote for me, or focus your attention on me and interrogate me?

[Adel]

ckd bailed off of the Shamba wagon once it hit -3. He was attempting to use his vote for Shanba as a tool to get Shanba to account for his Cicero unvote/Oman vote in post 96.

His stated reason for unvoting was that he didn't like the speed of the wagon (yet it only got to lynch -3) but in his unvote post he left himself an opening to revote Shanba if he didn't like Shanba's reason for unvoting cicero and voting for Oman.

Adel, this was not the only reason for the unvote, I have stated this NUMEROUS times, your failure to acknowledge this is now become scummy

CKD, the reasons I see you as having given for the unvote are:
1) Quickness of the reason-lite votes (this is a spun version of "speed of the wagon" that Adel refers to)
2) Shanba not posting

2) is a valid reason not to pressure wagon. If a player is not posting, then a wagon on them is not achieving anything other than giving the wagoners an opportunity to appear useful whilst being able to blame inactivity upon the lurker. That's my quibble with Adel here.

That said, however, you yourself clearly indicate that the speed of the wagon was a reason in your unvote. That makes Adel's criticism of the speed justification valid, and it makes it necessary for you to respond to them. It's slippery for you now to say that it wasn't the ONLY reason as a means of dealing with this.

ok. Still, do you think the profanity was the result of a genuine emotional outburst, or was a calculated rhetorical device, or something else?

I think it might well have been calculated, but nobody other than CKD can hope to know and the fact that his quote tags were not messed up doesn't strike me as very significant evidence of calculation.

This is all I see from you, and it doesn't strike me as comming from the POV of someone who sees me as having a 50% (on day 1!) chance of being scum.

[Adel]

Apologies for the double:

Pegging your perception of other players to a % chance would probably help you review a completed game and identify where & when you were especially insightful or misguided.

I like this idea and will try it out.

no prob. The part I left out is that you would be able to use the daily % chance of each other player being scum as a control.

[Adel]

49: Here Adel does make a good point that I missed previously. CKD did not have a case on anyone else. Thus, I retract what I said (here and in the other post on this) about the wagon's ineffectiveness as a valid reason. At worst, it was going to do nothing, but CKD moved nowhere else.

I need to get better at putting my points across. I swore I said this word for word when I was going back and forth with CKD, but it is buried in my text and not clear. I'm still puzzling if there's anything that makes this scummy outside of a Shanba partnership cause I really don't see it. I know Adel put for

th

the "avoiding being on bandwagon" theory earlier, but the unvote out of the blue draws more attention

that

then

being the originator of a valid pressure wagon doesn't it?

I'm not a grammer nazi (I know that I live in a glass house) I'm just making corrections in the above post to ensure that I'm reading it correctly.

I didn't connect the dots for why there would be a ckd+shanba scumteam until reading this post and trying to think of reason ckd wouldn't follow up more strongly on Shanba once Shanba returned.. I needed it spelled out clearly like you did in this post.

~~~

I don't think Shanba expected his unvote to draw attention. I think ckd-scum saw a chance to slip off the wagon before it became too big.

ckd+shanba +2

ckd is finially over my 40% day 1 criterion. I'm ready to lynch him. I now see his most likely partners to be Shanba and cicero.

~~~

I really don't like how stingy people are being with their votes. Votes are one of the only quantifiable pieces of information a mafia game provides. My ability to detect scum relies upon them.

~~~

mod: please prod The Fonz and Erg0, and Shanba if he needs it by the time you check this.

[Adel]

no, he does a PBPA and then everyone else stops posting.

[Adel]

Why not lynch Shanba then, who is still - post exams - not contributing?

Assuming that a ckd-lynch will not happen, I'm willing to comprimise by lynching Erg0 or The Fonz or Shanba.

[Adel]

'eff it.

unvote, vote:Shanba

[Adel]

I hate lurking and lurkers. 'kill 'em all.

[Adel]

Simply put, cicero, the only thing that lynching Erg0 would accomplish is removing a lurker, barring Erg0 being scum, which is not better than random chances at this point.

This game be an idea.

It relies upon three basic assumptions which I feel are valid:

Assumption 1:

At this point, and in this game, lurking players are slightly more likely than average to be scum.

Assumption 2:

Any compromise lynch we reach, because of Guardian's deadline lynch rules and the pace of the game thus far, will be a lynch of very low informational value.

Assumption 3:

A random lynch is better than a no-lynch

Who are the lurker? Oman, Erg0, The Fonz, and Shanba. BT has redeemed himself in recent pages (and has a good excuse).

I say we use the dice tags to pick one of the four, and we lynch that person.

If three other people agree I'll post the list and post the dice tags.

[Adel]

I'm not a fan of low information lynches.

I would like Shanba to be replaced. This is an invitational and he has four contentless posts. That's sad.

I'd also like to know where Erg0, the Fonz and Simenon are.

I would also like Shanba to be replaced.

Should Simenon be on my lurker list for the random lynch?

[Adel]

Do you really think shaft.ed stands a chance of being lynched today? Why don't you try doing something more productive with your vote?

[Adel]

Really Adel, dice tags?

really. Typical day 1 lynches are worse the random, and comprimise deadline lynches are worse than typical lynches. If we are going to have a lynch that is nearly useless in terms of informational utility, I say we at least make the best gamble that we can.

Of course, now that Shanba has four votes, I'm pretty happy. I expect him to get three more before deadline.

[Adel]

EBWOP: Typical day 1 lynches are less likely to be accurate than a random lynch would be. Compromise deadline lynches are even less likely to be accurate than a typical lynch would be. If we are going to have a lynch with very low informational utility, I think that we should at least make the lynch a gamble we stand a chance to win.

Of course, now that Shanba has four votes, I'm pretty happy. I expect him to get three more before deadline.

[Adel]

really. Typical day 1 lynches are worse the random, and comprimise deadline lynches are worse than typical lynches.

Typical day 1 lynches also help you make better choices for other lynches.

Typical lynches have informational utility, and deadline lynches often do not.

[Adel]

I was expecting no wagon to have more than a couple of "justified" votes. Until you voted Oman was the vote leader with literally no "justified votes".

[Adel]

Dude I put it in bold. You aren't pointing out anything new. A simple "I disagree with your second assumption" would do.

Assumption 2:

Any compromise lynch we reach, because of Guardian's deadline lynch rules and the pace of the game thus far, will be a lynch of very low informational value.

I dea was simply that if we aren't going to have an informational lynch, we may as well have a lynch that stands a respectible chance of netting scum.

[Adel]

So you still support an Oman lynch-at-deadline over everyone else?

Assuming Shanba will not be replaced today (which I feel is a very safe assumption) why should he not be lynched today?

[Adel]

I've got to catch a bus now.

lol

but why Fonz over Shanba?

[Adel]

Oman made five additional posts on mafiascum.net since this last post of his. The most recent one was posted 27 minutes after he said he was going to the gym.

[Adel]

Simply put, cicero, the only thing that lynching Erg0 would accomplish is removing a lurker, barring Erg0 being scum, which is not better than random chances at this point.

This game be an idea.

It relies upon three basic assumptions which I feel are valid:

Assumption 1:

At this point, and in this game, lurking players are slightly more likely than average to be scum.

Assumption 2:

Any compromise lynch we reach, because of Guardian's deadline lynch rules and the pace of the game thus far, will be a lynch of very low informational value.

Assumption 3:

A random lynch is better than a no-lynch

Who are the lurker? Oman, Erg0, The Fonz, and Shanba. BT has redeemed himself in recent pages (and has a good excuse).

I say we use the dice tags to pick one of the four, and we lynch that person.

If three other people agree I'll post the list and post the dice tags.

I'd like you to justify Assumption 1. Honestly. Like, actually justify it, don't feed me any "I just feel this way for this game" crap. I'd love for you to explain how you can differentiate town lurkers from scum lurkers.

I can't. Hopefully lady luck can. Lurking, IMHO, is a near-breaking tactic for scum under the current meta. Active players tend to lynch other active players. Lurking, especially during the first two days of a 12 player game, is the safest way to avoid getting lynched. The major reason not to lurk is if you are interested in productive and accurate lynches. Townie players have that motivation, and scum players do not.

I completely disagree with Assumption 2. A CKD lynch should give YOU of all people more information than you could hope for today. He's listed in about half of your possible scum-pairings right? There has been a preponderance of players commenting on, attacking, and defending CKD. Knowing his alignment would go a long way to unraveling day 1 info. Plus, you CLAIM TO THINK HE IS SCUM.

Do you think we can pull off a ckd lynch? You, me, simenon and vollkan would make four. Where would the other three come from?

As for assumption 3, I'm not so sure. No lynching at this point would be kinda like having a night head start in the game, just with a full day's worth of information to go on already. Anyway, this doesn't really matter at this point because I'm not arguing for a no lynch.

I'm becoming increasingly nervous about Adel's lack of belief in her own attack against CKD. She certainly seemed pretty adamant about it several pages ago and now she seems to want to ignore him altogether.

Are you offering to help me push for a ckd lynch? Do you really think we could pull it off before deadline?

With the deadline looming I was more interested in what was best

possible

choice then what I felt was the absolute best choice.

unvote, vote:ckd

[Adel]

Join the ckd wagon. I'll punch you in the stomach and tell you that you are ugly and unwanted. It will be just like old times.

[Adel]

Oman[3] (Erg0, Shanba, shaft.ed)
Shanba[3] (Jitsu, Oman, Simenon)
curiouskarmadog[2] ( BillyTwilight, Adel)
shaft.ed[1] (The Fonz)
Adel[1] (curiouskarmadog)
The Fonz[1] (cicero)

Not voting: vollkan

with 12 alive, 7 will lynch.
with 11 voting, 6 will lynch at deadline

[Adel]

13.

At deadline, if a player has a majority of the votes being cast (e.g. all votes not on Not Voting) that player will be lynched. Otherwise, no lynch will occur and night will commence.

we are facing a no-lynch at deadline right now.

[Adel]

curiouskarmadog[4] (BillyTwilight, Adel, vollkan, Oman)
Oman[3] (Erg0, Shanba, shaft.ed)
Shanba[2] (Jitsu, Simenon)
Adel[2] (curiouskarmadog, cicero)
shaft.ed[1] (The Fonz)

with 12 voting it will take 7 votes to lynch at deadline.

[Adel]

I wanted to draw the nk N1.

[Adel]

The kill failed on Oman, and somehow Oman got Shaft.ed. The problem for us is that Shaft.ed told us he had investigation *and* NK immunity, our kill failed (Kison/Shanba performed all of them) on Oman, and then Shaft.ed somehow turned up dead the morning of D3. With four vanilla townies and our ace in the hole dead, we knew we were one massclaim away from losing.

Kison and I knew were totally hosed (and also thoroughly confused), but we weren't able to talk about it until it was too late. It seemed way too ridiculous for Oman to have investigation immunity, NK immunity, and also be able to get through Shaft.ed's NK immunity, so we figured Fonz had to have one of those roles. I figure that Oman probably had NK immunity, but I'm still wondering how the hell Shaft.ed died.

Knowing we had little power, we knew at least one of the power claims was false, and I figured it had to be Oman. Then Cicero wisely claimed as well and the masons followed suit. All of the claims were pretty believable, which left Kison and I little room to operate with respect to counterclaiming. I thought about claiming Doctor or RB, but I thought I would need Fonz's vote, and I was sure that the town would have believed Fonz over me. We killed Cicero N3, still worried about the Fonz blocking/protecting us, never guessing he was an ordinary vanilla.

I came up with the plan of trying to look like I was protecting the Fonz with a WIFOM trap before the end of D3. Then on D4, when Erg0 and Billy latched on to us and started talking like the game was over, I knew it was time to go big, or go home (in a pine box). I tried my darndest to get Fonz to stop and think about things (silly me, I actually thought I wasn't doing half bad at attacking the masons in a hopeless cause). If Fonz *had* been sitting on a power role, then discrediting the masons might have worked, as there would still have been two power roles left (him and Cicero). That is why I decided to try vanilla and not Doc/RB. But when Fonz turned out to be vanilla, all that work was for naught.

dude, that is rough. I don't see any real mistakes you guys made. Lucky for us the set-up got you.

I thought all of that ultra-conservative play would be disasterous for the town. Seeing how stingy people were being with thier votes, and how little they were posting, I'm kind of glad I died Night 1.

If you would've killed Erg0 or Billy night 1 I think you guys would've won. Pity.

[Adel]

btw, Jitsu has 440 posts. Any suggestions for a title for him?

[Adel]

hahaha I can't believe I do not how to read my own role PM. My whole team thinks I'm NK immune.

good times.

[Adel]

I honestly didn't believe you when you posted that.

[Adel]

thanks for the win!

[Adel]

Sorry, server time, as I understand it is Central time. So deadline is midnight Central time.

I lol'd, thinking that we only had a short period of time to post here before you cut off conversation.

[Adel]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8596

now I really wish I had lived until day 2. Damn you Oman for killing me off!

[Adel]

does anyone feel like nominating The Fonz or someone else for a scummy based off of this game?

[Adel]

I'm not as worried about Oman,

YOU SHOULD BE!

Oman weaker player, higher probability power role.

Weaker?.

let them continue to underestimate you, it means more wins for you in the future.

~~~

btw, a game I am in, Open 86 - Lovers Multiball needs

3

replacements. PM url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/profile. ... ile&u=7538]destructor[/url] if you are interested.
(he said I could advertise)

[Adel]

seriously though, Guardian is a fucking great mod. Asking for a mass role-nameclaim would've been suicide for scum. I think the real test of a normal set-up is if player's following Pie's rules would lose it, then it is a good & balanced set-up. Call it: Adel's No-Pie theorem of good game design. It is real justice that he was the mod in this game.
I actually nominated BM to be the mod, mostly because I would rather play with Guardian the player (or one of his alts) than BM the player, and BM is a great mod in his own right. I wish that BM had been involved in this game somehow though, I think on the whole he has made a real contribution to this site.

.. and I wish I would've lived long to play with the rest of y'all.

~one love

[Adel]

Guardian

is

awesomely Awesome-X.