Mini Normal 2177 | Town Win

[Toogeloo]

Heyo!

I don't usually play non-theme games, but had some time on my hands and queues were junk atm, so figured why not. Doing a slow~ish reread between watching some TV in the background, so probably getting a few things backwards since I'm splitting my attention, but I'll get there. Currently on page 15 with the knowledge that Herta was redflip and Shoshin was greenflip, and trying to run with that.

My initial thoughts as of right now... fuzzy and Hiraki are scum, Taylor as backup (though I think she replaced if I read page 1 right). Some of fuzzy's early posts strike me as odd, but more to the point I was focusing on one of Herta's posts where he listed 5 peeps, and figured he had to have listed at least one scum in there, and decided to focus more attention in those slots.

[Toogeloo]

Shoshin, rockhopper, tgp, N_M, fuzzy. Please start towning.

This is where I've started my investigations if anyone is curious. I highly doubt that Herta listed 5 town here, so I'm starting with this list.

My early reads have me leaning town on Rockhopper, and Shoshin is conftownflip. I'm not commiting to TGP as of just yet considering the amount of time spent on Day 1 for that slot, which leaves N_M and fuzzy. Between the two slots, I feel fuzzy might yield the scum flip.

[Toogeloo]

Fair warning in advance, I don't play on Friday Nights or all day Sundays. Game is small enough, I should finish my read through by tomorrow night.

[Toogeloo]

No łynch - null
CreativeMod1 - scum
geraintm - town lean
TheGoldenParadox - town
Hiraki - town
Not_Mafia - null
TheFuzzylogic99 - town lean
Rockhopper - scum lean
Noraa - town

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Page 26 was probably the most pivotal page in my reread. I think it's the point where Shoshin started to gamesolve enough that put her on the mafia hitlist. She developed a well thought out case on herta, and she cleared and cast doubt on other key slots that probably brought some fear to scum's eyes.

TGP is town, I am 100% in that mind set, and I will likely never vote that slot. #2 on the herta wagon has high town probability in a game where he was the leading wagon with lots of vanity wagons to choose from. Coming from a slot that was nearly lynched day 1, that's some heavy deep wolfing if he's scum. herta likely avoided the wagon since it was assumed that TGP would be the lynch that close to deadline, and didn't want to be associated with a green-flip as scum are ought not want to be.

CMOD is most likely to be scum. I'm obviously a bit late to this point as is clear by the votes up to now, most of you seems aware. Taylor was #4 on herta's wagon, which is where scum typically jump on to a quick building scumbuddy wagon so they can try and gain at least a little town cred. Even when I started my early reading last night and was distracted, I had Taylor as an early scum read, so I'm willing to hedge my bets here, and with Shoshin's confidence in this slot, it's also likely why she ate the bullet in the night.

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for other slots...
Not_Mafia should probably be policy lynched if we ever feel like we are in a position to do so. Hammering isn't alignment indicative, and they are generally unhelpful. That being said, they also provide zero information when lynched, so they have one of the least equitable spots on the roster.

No_lynch could have been trying to earn some quick town points on a wagon at deadline, especially since their vote is more less equivocal to a hammer knowing N_M was going to auto. I remember feeling icky thoughts with Jackson on my early reads, Shoshin, I believe found this slot to be relatively town and this slot was seen to also make valid points as well. This slot is my most difficult one to sort, and remains null, and I am afraid to say I must remain firmly on the fence with it for the time being.

Hiraki has moved from a scum lean to a town lean on my full reread. I wasn't a fan of their entrance to the game, and I can't recall what else pinged me about them, but I was sold on early scum reads at first, but am no longer so after fully absorbing the game.

Contrarily, I have moved Rockhopper to a slight scum lean. They were active early, with several vote jumps which gave me an early town read on them due to the amount of attention they were grabbing. However, that quickly dissipated as I approached end of Day 1 and their posts became more sparse, especially as the herta wagon became more prevalent. The slot felt absent, and I'm not sure if that's activity related, or if that's from trying not to cause commotion and derail a scumbuddy and thus get themselves into trouble as well. Either way, the early read I had of Rock was not consistent by end of Day 1, and as I get towards PoE, Rock is one of the people I feel needs more attention.

Noraa comes off as town to me. I have certain vibes I am leaning towards on Noraa that strike me as coming from a town place. She's an aggressive player with high post counts, and I have limited experience with her (I don't research players, so I go with games I have actively participated in), but I don't see scum motivation in her posts, and instead I see someone aggressive with strong feelings that just happens to be wrong.

I'm still kind on the fence with Fuzzy, but I've moved towards the town side of said fence. This is largely due to Shoshin's reads, and my reevaluation of my late night read from yesterday. I'm not 100% committed to this read, but I've placed him here as I attempt to PoE the rest of the player base.

geraintm I want to say is town. Not with near as much confidence as I have in TGP, Hiraki, and Noraa, but enough to warrant very little suspicion from my point of view. They have convictions which is a good sign, and enough for me to lean town.

Consider my vote on CMOD, and in doing so I'd assume that N_M would likely hammer

[Toogeloo]

VOTE: CMOD

[Toogeloo]

I don't think NL and tgp can both be scum

TGP isn't scum. Anyone who is still scum reading that slot is wrong.
_
I was getting cop vibes from you Noraa (see my read on you), but I thought it was me you scanned tbqh given your treatment of me entering the game.

[Toogeloo]

I wouldn't have claimed it just yet unless Nolim was truly in trouble (L-2)

[Toogeloo]

I have a tell too. I almost always hint (and/or claim) my power early in games too. Just to see if people are paying attention to me lol.

[Toogeloo]

Not Ascetic

In a 12 player game, I don't like two cop-esque roles with two goons flipped.

[Toogeloo]

NM claiming to JK me doesn't rub me the right way and makes me think he might be scum.

Jailkeeper is easily faked for scum Roleblocker. I've seen it in the past. I'd also fully expect a Roleblocker against a power heavy town.

4 scum in a 12 player game is highly unlikely.

You'll also have to forgive my skepticism of a bulletproof, jailkeeper, and doctor in a 12 man as well.

[Toogeloo]

As per my usual MO, I did actually hide my role in my first post in the game.

[Toogeloo]

I'm more likely to lynch JK claim at this point Noraa.

[Toogeloo]

Doing a slow~ish reread between watching some

TV

in the background, so probably getting a few things

backwards

since I'm splitting my attention, but I'll get there.

[Toogeloo]

Read the bold >_>

[Toogeloo]

Just from claims alone, Fuzzy claims not to see NM visit Noraa.

Fuzzy also has the bad "two dead scum," post.

But 3 protectives in a 12 player game is "what?"

NM is a harder read from Day 1&2, but is going hard today.

From my PoV, those are the only options for today.

[Toogeloo]

Ok then...
VOTE: Fuzzy

[Toogeloo]

Can't be that bad if you were lynched last.

Makes me feel better about my initial read on replace in.

[Toogeloo]

I've seen gambits like that fail, and you guys are lucky that things went the way they did. Lynch all liars exists for a reason, and if you were wrong it could have cascaded into a bad Town loss.

[Toogeloo]

My initial thoughts as of right now... fuzzy and Hiraki are scum, Taylor as backup

I mean, c'mon. My first post of the game 15ish pages in to a game read.