Mini 2156: Launch Mob [Game Over]

[Blair]

VOTE: Midwaybear

This is L-3. Anyone not serious about this wagon may flee like children now.

[Blair]

Oh, you have GOT to be kidding me...

Dunnstral. Did you actually roll scum AGAIN?

[Blair]

I just cannot even comprehend how.

I am so sorry this has happened to you.

[Blair]

I never learned how to react under the top.

[Blair]

Anyways, I think Dunnstral is town for not letting the L-1 vote sit on me. Don't have anything solid on anyone else.

You think Dunnstral is town for putting you at L-1 and then unvoting six minutes later?

[Blair]

I'm hurt.

Blair, you didn't answer my

Alignment Indicative Solving Questions

These are important for me and I am unable to function or form reads without answers.

Somehow I suspect you'll manage.

I'll answer the last one because it's a genuinely helpful piece of information I wouldn't mind gleaning from everyone else.

I prefer playing as Town, because I enjoy the mental exercise of game solving - and the opportunity to learn something new when my solve is incorrect. Playing as Mafia isn't very engaging for me until near endgame because it's mostly just a matter of not getting launched, and I'm generally a difficult launch so it's mostly a slog until the end when everyone gets paranoid and reexamines everything (the one time when scum is most at risk of all their careful machinations collapsing in on them).

[Blair]

Midway voters, hold fast to your convictions! I'm feeling better and better about this wagon, have faith! I sense we are already marching steadfastly toward a resounding town victory.

[Blair]

Let not your hearts be swayed by the subtle, seductive wiles of the counterwagon.

[Blair]

(Is that what people thought I was reacting to?)

[Blair]

(Is that what people thought I was reacting to?)

Y e s

VOTE: midwaybear

L-1

You thought that I thought this was a hammer?

The L-1 vote?

The vote that put you at L-1?

The L-1 vote that put you at L-1 specifically labeled "L-1?"

[Blair]

so now you view putting someone at L-1 a scumtell?

The "so you're saying" tell for cognitive dissonance.

No, I'm not saying putting someone at L-1 is a scum tell. I would encourage you to review my posts and find evidence to substantiate your claim that this is my position (spoiler: this will be very difficult).

[Blair]

Oh, you have GOT to be kidding me...

Dunnstral. Did you actually roll scum AGAIN?

Can you explain how you derived Dunnstral being scum then?
Also, your tell doesn't work because I am town

You might be town, you might not. It's a tell for cognitive dissonance, though, not a scum tell. It doesn't necessarily mean your scum, but it does mean you're putting forth an argument you don't necessarily believe.

[Blair]

Dunnstral put you at L-1, then a mere six minutes later, thought

"ehh, maybe not..."

then voted for Puppy instead, and made it look like an innocent opportunity to make a joke with Puppy username in the process. It felt a little too self conscious to me to be genuine.

[Blair]

erm presumably he's on about the vote by InnocentVillager after the L-1 vote, which immediately preceded your post, and to the untrained eye may have appeared to be a hammer.

Nope:

How genuine do you think Blair's reaction to Dunnstral supposedly quickhammering me was?

[Blair]

Happy birthday, Umlaut!

FoS: Ready2Rock

[Blair]

Happy birthday, Umlaut!

FoS: Ready2Rock

VOTE: ready2rock I can get behind this

This post has a higher probability of becoming important later than most.

[Blair]

I pretty much agree with your reasons for pressuring him, Inin.

I agree, excellent reasons.

Happy birthday, Umlaut!

FoS: Ready2Rock

VOTE: ready2rock I can get behind this

There can objectively be no better reasoning.

[Blair]

Happy birthday, Umlaut!

FoS: Ready2Rock

VOTE: ready2rock I can get behind this

This post has a higher probability of becoming important later than most.

Is this just like an associations thing? Like it makes me/rock a less likely team?

When you, Ready2Rock, or Midway flip, I'll be referring back to this post to draw ~conclusions~

[Blair]

@blair he did elaborate here.

You misunderstand. I wasn't mocking him for failing to explain his read.

I was praising him for sheeping my glorious read.

[Blair]

VOTE: Ready2rock

Was feeling cute, might unvote later.

Spoiler:

Probably not, though. The scummy entrance and strong associatives make this an excellent wagon.

[Blair]

Oh, also:

FoS: Mafia Goon

[Blair]

I like these posts from redrock. Are you misgooned often? Also, that's your one wall used from your daily wall quota. Please don't go over your limit like midway or BM.

Ydrasse's wagon hop is strange because she says she's sheeping it but then provides a point against the arguments for why redrock is scum. What points were worth sheeping, Ydrasse?

VOTE: Ydrasse

midway's tone is weird and possibly scummy, but to assess whether he's scum would mean reading through the wall of wars and probably looking at his mislaunch meta. Ah, well, maybe I'll do it if we're both alive at lylo.

Dunnstral has been very lacklustre.

He has a valid thought process behind the BM suspicions that I can follow. His initial post was sus because it was unsubstantiated, but he's shown he had good reasoning behind it.

What is this gak?

#JustScummyThings #BadPosting

[Blair]

Blair has Schrodinger's Case, where she’s presented this incredible genius read for the last page or two, but we haven't opened the box so you’ll never know if her case was ever actually there or not

Fear not! This is by design.

[Blair]

Tbh, that last post of mine sounds a little awkward/pockety even to me.

Why the other two, Blair?

222 and 223 read forced and you've manufactured a townread out of thin air just in time to move your vote somewhere else, while shading a couple other slots without committing to actual scumreads.

Basically, you've managed to throw your weight in six or seven different directions without saying anything that would grant you any accountability for any of these pushes.

[Blair]

Oh, also:

FoS: Mafia Goon

im not going to ask why

Thank goodness.

I was afraid you might finally roll scum.

[Blair]

Was your reaction to Dunnstral "rolling scum" a genuine one or were you overreacting?

It was a page one read - it was serious at the time, obviously it becomes less substantial as more material accumulates.

If I have a non-serious read, I'll let you know.

[Blair]

Also, it occurs to me that I mentioned it in my modded game (which just completed - go read it! Absolutely wild ride) but didn't mention here: I'm in the process of packing and moving, so my attention is very divided right now and I haven't been able to keep up my usual rate of activity. Hoping to be completed packed up and moved out within 24 hours, though!

[Blair]

This is not very helpful. I don't understand anything!

This is very unhelpful. I misunderstood everything!

[Blair]

i think i just want to vote dunn and see like. anything.

Spoiler Alert:

Spoiler:

This never works. Dunnstral doesn't respond to pressure votes, and even if he did, you aren't actually applying any pressure when you say, "Meh, I just want to see something from you."

You called me town, though, so I'll be cozying up inside your pocket for now.

I didn't find your explanation for your Ready2Rock stance very compelling. Please revisit this topic soon and consider voting for him with extreme prejudice.

Regards,
Blair

[Blair]

Blair - why did you FoS R2R above?

176 reads like a wilfully bad faith push on you which he chased with a half-hearted handwave toward Nosferatu. The latter being the reason why I believe the former was "wilful" - seemed like something you would tack on the end to distract if you were conscious you had just made a bad faith push. It served no other real purpose in that post.

and what was the rationale for your comment about Innocentvillager's post becoming important later?

The wagon-hop was conspicuous. If either the unvote or new vote flip scum, I'm going to be revisiting that post. It was as much a note to remind myself as anything else.

Blair, how much do you love me? on a scale of 1-10

My love knows no bounds.

Spoiler:

8/10

Would recommend Battle Mage to a friend.

[Blair]

Townblock assemble!

VOTE: Dunnstral

If he flips scum, Nosferatu tomorrow.

If he flips town, Ydrasse/Puppy tomorrow.

There is some equity in Dunnstral/Ydrasse, as well.

But I'm picking up what you're laying down.

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Blair]

Blair: A Dunn wagon won't serve as any actual pressure, just FYI
Blair 1 page later: Oh a dunn wagon, time to hop on!

You should definitely read those two posts again if you think they contradict each other.

(If you're just scum pouncing on believable surface-level misinterpretations, carry on)

[Blair]

Yes, I noticed that too

#ScumPosting

[Blair]

Like, look at him sitting on the sidelines hearing a terrible misreading of my posts and saying "YEAH, GET HER FOR THAT!" while sitting on his hands.

That post is atrocious.

[Blair]

If anyone is legitimately struggling to understand the difference between when I said

"Your pressure vote isn't going to work because it's on someone who won't care and you aren't even scumreading him and there is obviously no pressure anyway"

and my vote on Dunnstral now...

Hint:

A) The pressure is real this time because I'm actually scumreading him, B) Dunnstral knows I'll hang onto something and refuse to let it go for 50 pages like a rabid dog, and C) it doesn't matter if the pressure "works" or not because this isn't just a "pressure vote" it's also a "vote vote"... you know, an "I'm fine launching this person vote."

Let's not pretend there is any valid comparison at all between my serious vote that I'm willing to launch for (a read I've espoused and led up to for nearly the entire game thus far) and your "I guess I'll just vote here so maybe he'll respond" vote.

[Blair]

It strains credulity to think that either R2R or Dunnstral actually believed that I was saying "No one should ever vote for Dunnstral." I obviously wasn't saying that. It's the least charitable possible interpretation of my post and the only interpretation that creates a contradiction.

[Blair]

town play style is not a monolith and having reads and scumhunting are not universally town behavior
scum can have reads and scumhunt just as convincingly

Well of course they can.

But if we split the playerlist into two columns:

Scumhunting	Not Scumhunting
Town	Town
Town	Mafia
Town
Town
Town
Mafia
Town
Town

There can be Mafia in the

"Scumhunting"

category (your point), but if there is a Townie in the

"Not Scumhunting"

category for some reason we have a problem.

It's sort of our win condition.

[Blair]

You're claiming "Vanilla Townie"?

[Blair]

[Blair]

I'm well aware of that.

That's not why.

Now put him back at L-1 so Battle Mage can hammer the scum, please and thank you.

[Blair]

Frig.

Now I have to decide if you actually checked or just looked at the example Role PM in the ruleset.

[Blair]

Blair is kinda scummy this game too btw.

scummy this game too btw

this game too

this game

Have we played together before?

[Blair]

The overreaction to Dunn "rolling scum" early on really pinged me too.

Bless your heart. If you only knew!

There is a rich history behind that "overreaction."

[Blair]

Your secret's safe with me.

[Blair]

Oh, really? Sounds like a fun story.

tl;dr:

Dunnstral has rolled scum in virtually every game we've played together - Noughts & Crosses was a rare exception (because I was the scum instead - another rare exception!)

[Blair]

Her rationale came only after everyone else's did. She did post the suspicion first, then sat back and let everyone else do the work, and then swooped in with rationale so she can take the credit for "leading the wagon" when all she actually did was post a FoS with no rationale.

You seem rather bothered about this.

Why would you be bothered about this?

(Also, it's an astoundingly bad-faith take if you actually believe that I had no rationale at the time and just made it up after the fact, but you do you)

[Blair]

Dunnstral is caught!scum, stop resisting. You can only delay our glorious town victory!

[Blair]

Dunnstral (4): Ydrasse, Blair, Nosferatu, ready2rock
Ydrasse (3): midwaybear, innocentvillager, CantLynchAPuppy

i am totally fine w this lynch as well

VOTE: ydrasse

can we just consolidate

[Blair]

VOTE: midwaybear last minute compromise wagon anybody

Why try to compromise here right after Dunnstral left that wagon?

[Blair]

Blair reads off this game. It's a strange read but she's not as funny as I'm used to and her tone just feels weird.

I've been "off" due to factors outside of the scope of this game. This is deliberately vague to avoid skirting into "AtE" territory.

I'm not claiming that this is alignment indicative, but it is the real reason for any tonal change you're detecting in my posts in this game. If you believe I am the sort of person who would lie about my IRL circumstances for an in-game advantage, I can't stop you, but you're wasting your vote.

[Blair]

Also I'd absolutely quickhammer Ydrasse here if I was mafia since I'm the most likely launch anyway

[Blair]

Traffic Analyst would warrant an Ydrasse launch.

Psychologist would not, in my view.

Intent to hammer.

[Blair]

I think InnocentVillager needs to be confident enough that Ydrasse can't possibly be town, so if Ydrasse flips town we can guarantee InnocentVillager as scum.

Agreed. Bothers me a bit that InnocentVillager hasn't actually said that yet.

@InnocentVillager:

Are you confident that your role precludes Ydrasse's claim from being true?

[Blair]

I am only as confident as the information I am getting from you guys

I don't like this.

Retracting intent.

He's counter-claiming without telling us his role

or

taking any responsibility for the outcome.

I'd rather launch Dunnstral today and let the PR claims self-sort.

[Blair]

read self sort as: leak even more info to inform my kills for the next couple nights

This is cute.

Let's imagine a world where one or both of them are town: What info would scum!Blair be waiting to "leak" before deciding to kill them? They're already outed PRs.

[Blair]

All my dastardly machinations are coming to fruition.

[Blair]

Oh fine.

VOTE: Midway

[Blair]

VOTE: Ydrasse

Gimme my towncred now.

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[Blair]

Vote Count 1.13 (FINAL)

Ydrasse

(6): innocentvillager, Nosferatu, Mafia Goon, midwaybear, Battle Mage, ready2rock

Blair

(1): Dunnstral

Mafia Goon

(1): Ydrasse

midwaybear

(1): CantLynchAPuppy, Blair

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to launch.

thinking it has to be someone on-wagon, i don't think scum is in me/blair and i don't think it's dunn either

so of nose/mafi/midway/bm/r2r...? prolly not midway and i still have good feelings about mafi

You have omitted Dunnstral from your calculus.

[Blair]

I won't bother denying it, I am in fact that bold.

But alas, I rolled town.

[Blair]

I would expect to find scum in the sub-group of players who faded into the background when the counterclaim became clear.

I'll have to reread to figure out who that would be, but that's my hypothesis.

[Blair]

Hmm... turns out, Dunnstral is that person!

He posted these consecutive posts (which look rather different in light of recent events, by the way) and then doesn't post again at all until the next phase:

I suggest we do not launch the cop claim.

VOTE: Blair

Also I'd absolutely quickhammer Ydrasse here if I was mafia since I'm the most likely launch anyway

After these posts, the counterclaim happens, Dunnstral vanishes from the face of the earth, and Ydrasse flips scum (which, incidentally, invalidates his "town tell" that he didn't Quick hammer Ydrasse earlier in the day).

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Blair]

(Note: He was active elsewhere during that time period, he only vanished from this particular game)

[Blair]

I guess people can check for themselves, then, since I can't exactly quote other ongoing games in here.

You had other posts, in other games, between your last post in this thread and the end of the phase.

[Blair]

I made 4 posts in between this

So I guess yeah, the progression looks pretty weak if you take away, y'know, any context of a progression

Good point.

*checks context*

I mean if I'm outvoted then I'm outvoted, but I think Dunn looks way scummier, and while I think MG's point is the most solid against ydarsse right now, I'm still not convinced

How has Dunn provided any help or benefit to the town? The reason I held off on a scumread or vote was to give him the time to start scumhunting or posting any substantial content, and he just...hasn't

If Dunnstral is Town, Ready2rock looks bad here.

[Blair]

I am only as confident as the information I am getting from you guys

I don't like this.

Retracting intent.

He's counter-claiming without telling us his role

or

taking any responsibility for the outcome.

I'd rather launch Dunnstral today and let the PR claims self-sort.

I mean you held this opinion even after the claims came out, so if I'd come out looking bad what would that say about you?

Also, someone earlier brought up Ydarsse's interactions with dunn, what do you make of them and how does it affect your read on dunn?

Of all the ways scum could try to set themselves up to un-bus, that would have to be the worst.

My progression there was clear and reasonable: I asked him a reasonable question (for which my preferred answer was clear), he gave the wrong answer anyway, and I lowered my confidence in his counterclaim accordingly.

If the above was my genius scum Master Plan™ to un-bus my partner, it was awfully risky given that he could have mucked it up by answering with the confidence I was asking him for.

Scum comes up with their own out there (like you did), they don't leave themselves at the mercy of a Town PR to give them one.

[Blair]

I'd still like my second question answered btw about Dunn

The only interaction between Dunnstral and Ydrasse that I consider noteworthy at this point is when Dunnstral stated intent to hammer on Ydrasse - but Ydrasse claimed Cop two posts later so it really just doubles down my confirmation bias that it looked coordinated.

[Blair]

(Remember he tried to grab town cred afterward because he claimed scum!Dunn would have quickhammered Ydrasse - now that we know Ydrasse was scum, I suggest those of you who granted him town points for that promptly revoke them)

[Blair]

Supposing for a moment that you actually were innocent.

Your argument is, "Blair couldn't possibly misread me like this."

[Blair]

Your argument is, "Blair couldn't possibly misread me like this."

Is this invalid?

Either I'm right* or he's wrong.**

* = Blair is right, Dunnstral is scum

** = Dunnstral is town and therefore wrong, Blair could actually misread him

[Blair]

apathy kicking town ass rn

also ngl reading this game feels like i'm looking at a blob of "meh" with a few light trs (hi inno, hi blair) thrown in there which makes parsing through it all feel like my brain is turning into goo. i don't know what that means mafia is doing other than either blending in or just... not playing right now which means we're all kind of half-heartedly pointing fingers at each other hoping something sticks.

that sentiment implicates nosferatu, dunn and r2r if going off of like, strictly numbers. of them i like nosferatu the most bc of that dunn/blair thing. i think r2r isn't look the best but i vibed with some of their points regarding bm thus the unvote. i don't think it's foolproof like they are town 100% of the time but i can follow their logic without having to twist and reach for it so i don't wanna vote them rn

peepin the meh block aka {launchy, midway, goon, battle mage}

Vote Count 1.11

Ydrasse

(3): midwaybear, innocentvillager, Nosferatu

Dunnstral

(2): Blair, ready2rock

Blair

(2): Dunnstral, Mafia Goon

Mafia Goon

(1): Ydrasse

midwaybear

(1): CantLynchAPuppy

Not voting

(1): Battle Mage

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to launch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-08-04 23:30:00)

Vote Count 1.13 (FINAL)

Ydrasse

(6): innocentvillager, Nosferatu, Mafia Goon, midwaybear, Battle Mage, ready2rock

Blair

(1): Dunnstral

Mafia Goon

(1): Ydrasse

midwaybear

(1): CantLynchAPuppy, Blair

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to launch.

wagonomics say its the kidd
VOTE: battle mage

I don't hate this actually.

[Blair]

1. I proposed a hypothesis ("Scum would probably disappear during the counterclaim discussion and resulting scun-launch yesterday").

2. I collected data ("I reread and Dunnstral stopped posting then and didn't post again until the next phase").

3. I drew a conclusion ("Dunnstral could be scum").

At which point in my internal logic did I stop being genuine? Why do you think so?

[Blair]

You're 100% wrong and need to join me.

[Blair]

Blair:
-Had a push on me day 1 that felt really scummy (a FoS with no reasoning or case to go along with it) that other people promptly just jumped on, and then she didn't provide any case or reasoning until everyone else already had

We've been over this one already. Again, if you really believe (you don't) that I didn't have reasoning and was waiting to plagiarize someone else's, you need to reexamine whether or not you are approaching me in good faith.

-Retracted vote and hammer, and was advocating for a counter wagon instead on midway, who she hadn't shown any suspicion or taken much notice towards since almost 10 pages before that

Weve been over this, too. I had very clear progression here, and it wasn't at all constructed as a scummy "Let me engineer a way to get myself out of a bus" would be.

If you think it was, feel free to explain how. Until then, this point is just a bad-faith "correlation = causation" argument.

-Is now trying to push a case against myself and Dunn, two fairly popular day 1 targets

Here's a crazy idea: Maybe I'm not pushing those reads because they were "popular" yesterday - maybe I'm pushing these reads because they were

my reads yesterday

.

Again, bad-faith "correlation = causation" argument.

If you're town, you aren't engaging me in good faith at all - and it's demonstrably not just a laziness thing, because several of these have already been addressed and you haven't adjusted your arguments to account for that at all.

[Blair]

Moreso that you cast the suspicion to leave bait there to see who would take it, and see if a wagon might be able to catch on, then not need to take responsibility for starting the wagon, because after all, you weren't the first vote or were the one who the case yourself.

Serious Question:

Do I strike you as the sort of person who tries to avoid taking credit for starting wagons?

[Blair]

I mean, I legitimately DID take credit for starting that exact wagon:

I pretty much agree with your reasons for pressuring him, Inin.

I agree, excellent reasons.

Happy birthday, Umlaut!

FoS: Ready2Rock

VOTE: ready2rock I can get behind this

There can objectively be no better reasoning.

@blair he did elaborate here.

You misunderstand. I wasn't mocking him for failing to explain his read.

I was praising him for sheeping my glorious read.

[Blair]

I don't mean why did you suspect me, I understand that, but why not a vote? Why not give further explanation at the time?

I didn't vote for you because I wasn't finished pushing the Midway wagon as far as it would go.

I didn't give further explanation at the time because: A.) I thought the context made it clear what I was reacting to, and B.) I find a certain degree of ambiguity in early-game pushes (context: this was on page 8) helps make the "pressure" of the push feel more real (because a self-conscious target will often project a stronger case onto the blank slate, and react accordingly).

[Blair]

Ok, I should have more time on this game now.
@Nosferatu is BM scum just because of how he voted Ydrasse? I know he pressured you for some bad reasons early in the game, but is there anything more to it?
I'm leaning away from Dunnstral, but he probably has to go at some point in this game because he isn't doing much right now.
r2r and Blair I need to look at more...
Still not sure who to vote yet, but we have time.

I read this as:

"Here are some extra reasons for you to suspect Battle Mage. Also, something should probably be done about Dunnstral, but FOR THE RECORD I don't personally think he's scum. Also, R2R and Blair are suspicious, but I don't want to commit to anything there yet either."

[Blair]

then why does basically everyone else have me as town?

I don't know.

Counterpoint: Why should I care about this lame Appeal to Majority?

[Blair]

There is a small part of me, in the deepest, darkest, most paranoid corner of my brain, that thinks that exchange sounded a lot like "Caught for the wrong reasons."

[Blair]

I'm a humble Townie.

Sorry for my activity level, I've had a busy week.