Open 65 - Mini Love (Over!) before 578

[Coron]

Hi guys! I'd be surprised if yesterday's lynch didn't involve a good bit of busing.
To me jex doesn't seem very scummy, ABR has seemed scummy, but no reason to vote him until we have a counterclaim(which if anyone is doctor I would suggest counterclaiming now). I'm at school now, so more reactions later.

[Coron]

Every time ABR posts I want to vote him just so he stops annoying me.

Again, more later, I've been kinda busy.

[Coron]

Hold it, I do not need replacement, at worst I need prodding.

Just like to point out that this game would be far easier to read if you guys posted anything of content or for that matter anything. I mean, this last page has been full of one line posts.

Vote: babygirl

for now, as a lurker vote(hypocritical I know) AND because what posts she has don't convince me at all of her protownatude.

[Coron]

mod: I'm voting babygirl not myself

I'll probably be less active over the next couple days.

[Coron]

While I understand the logic of killing off the known lover today, I feel that Korts only brought this plan up in order to get everyone's attention off of him and onto someone else. Korts is on the top of my scum list, as well as many others lists, and I feel he's the best lynch for the day.

The love plan works on any day, so we kill korts today

(getting rid of one scum)

and then deal with the lovers tomorrow.

The bolded part really gets to me. It's a much stronger statement than a townie would make, I feel. I think that by lynching Korts we are lynching the

most likely

scum, but I'm not complacent about it.

All we need to figure out is whether Jex is pushing for a townie lynch, or whether she's bussing Kortscum. In the meantime,

unvote
vote Jex

FoS: Eldarad

I don't like your tone.

[Coron]

Coron, what don't you like about my tone?
Is my tone scummy?

I don't like the tone of your tone.

Yes.

*Looks at Coron's join date*
Whoops, can't use the newbie excuse for this one huh?

Why would you need to?

[Coron]

Babygirl hasn't posted since like april 14th, can we get a replacement? For now I'm going to leave my vote there.

[Coron]

Coron, what don't you like about my tone?
Is my tone scummy?

I don't like the tone of your tone.

Yes.

*Looks at Coron's join date*
Whoops, can't use the newbie excuse for this one huh?

Why would you need to?

The question is, why would YOU need to? The joke was on you btw.

I don't understand, I have never tried to "use the newbie excuse", could you explain?

@Coron: How do you feel about what seems to be the town's strategy for the day (specifically Korts' idea) and the fact that our play revolves around Dahill only?

could you explain both of these questions more(what exactly is Korts idea, and how is play revolving around Dahill only).

[Coron]

Great. Now silence, Sethaniel and Kravhen please decide whether or not to follow the plan of eliminating the lovers.

Why them?

[Coron]

Because they aren't voting anyone.

And?

[Coron]

4 townies
1 mafia
3 lovers
1 treacherous lover
1 doc

This is our current set up.

If we lynch a lover of the scum (50%), scum kill other lover set for a 2 fer 1, but if we have the doc protect one of them that night it brings that probability back to normal, so they'd probably kill the doc.
next day we have
4 townies
1 mafia
2 lovers(confirmed)
We lynch a townie/mafia. If mafia town wins(20% from there 10% over all). 80% chance(40% over all) move on to next day
Mafia kills a lover at night
3 townies
1 mafia
1 lover
Lynch townie/mafia. If mafia town wins (25%, 10% over all). If townie, mafia kills townie, lover dies, gg mafia wins. (75%, 30% overall)
End if we lynch scum set.
If we lynch town set, scum probably still kill doctor, as he's still confirmed, and easy to kill.
4 townies
1 mafia
1 lover
1 tretcherous lover
lynch a lover of the other set, other dies at night, mafia kills a townie.
3 townies
1 mafia
lynch a townie/mafia. Lynch mafia town wins 25%(12.5% overall chance). Lynch town, scum wins 75%(37.5%)

So assuming no reads or anything useful like that town would win 32.5% of the time and scum would win 67.5% of the time.

We hunt from the claimed townies first:
Lynch Townie/mafia 20% mafia town wins(scum kills doc, town kills wrong lover pair, scum kills townie, but there is still 3 town 1 lover and 1 evil lover, so scum still lose), 80% town, move on, mafia kills doc at night

3 townies
1 mafia
3 lovers
1 evil lover
lynch townie/mafia 25% scum(20% overall) 75% town(60% overall)
if scum; lynch a lover set if wrong, the next day there is 2 townies 1 lover 1 evil lover, lynch other lover set, win. 20% overall of town win from here.
If town, scum kills townie,
1 townie
1 mafia
3 lovers
1 evil lover
lynch townie/mafia, 50% scum 50% town. If town, town loses(30% overall), if scum, scum kills townie, lynch lover set 50% scum set, town wins(15%) 50% town set town loses(15%).

Unless I did something wrong, that gives us with random lynching a town win percentage of 55% and a scum win percentage of 45%.

Numbers seem to support hunting among the townie claims first.

PS. If I missed any sort of tactical consideration, please let me know.

[Coron]

I can't really follow matha fter so many shots, but if we lynch all thel overs, won't we have a 4:1 ratio of town:scum day 4?

By that time mafia have already killed the doc and one of the townies, making it 3:1 assuming normal mafia kill every nightage.

[Coron]

I think you guys are wrong. If we lynch Korts and he is not scum at what point do you lynch the lovers to find out if one is scum?

When we've found the one hiding among the townies?

[Coron]

Honestly, the only reason scum wouldn't have killed the doctor last night is: they're idiots or they want us to think that they're idiots. It is objectively the best play to kill the doctor.

I'm not a fan of you guys jumping all over dahill for this, although I'm also not a big believer that dahill is town, the *sigh* post was kind of iffy.

I would definately be willing to vote in that direction.

[Coron]

Well, one would figure the doc would target someone he sees as town and thus there's a good chance he'll "confirm" a town anyway. Skipping your kill for a reason like that unless you really have no other options is kind of silly.

[Coron]

Also looking at the lynch of Yoshi. I believe one of these people to be scum:

Coron
Kravhen
Silence
Sethaniel

None of them voted against Yoshi during the time. Looking at who voted for yoshi. It was ABR, me, dahil, eldarad, babygirl (me), Jex/ Armix, and Korts.

I think more focust on these four are needed.

This path, it leads to the dark side.

[Coron]

Also looking at the lynch of Yoshi. I believe one of these people to be scum:

Coron
Kravhen
Silence
Sethaniel

None of them voted against Yoshi during the time.

Looking at who voted for yoshi. It was ABR, me, dahil, eldarad, babygirl (me), Jex/ Armix, and Korts.

I think more focust on these four are needed.

Bad logic. Ever heard of teammate bussing?

Also, I wasn't around for the Yoshi lynch, Flameaxe was... but he was inactive as fuck, with only 5 posts, NONE outside of the random jokey phase, then got replaced.

I don't know if you have other reasons to put the other 3 in your top4 scum candidate list besides not voting for Yoshi, but seeing my name on your list makes me a very sad cat. =/

Lets get on the ball on who did vote yoshi. ABR (doctor), farside 1 (town), Korts (town) dahill and eldard (lovers). The only other ones is myself (babygirl) and Armix. I know my alignment and although I am uncertain of Armix. Flameaxe as town is usually more talkative even when it is nonsense. I haven't seen flameaxe as scum yet, but I think testing waters on my theory is good.

unvote:
vote: Kravhen

This path to the dark side leads.

Absolutely no reason to assume scum wouldn't bus there is.

In fact I find it likely that a minimum of 1 scum was on that wagon.

[Coron]

I find it hard to believe that there were no scum on the Yoshi wagon, given all the comments by town on how insanely scummy Yoshi was.

QFT

[Coron]

I'm out of town for the next 3 days.

[Coron]

wtf is BBM? ...

=Flameaxe I believe.

[Coron]

God damn it kravhen, even if Flameaxe wasn't around, what they're saying is that a scum-team member WOULDN'T have voted him, not that your lack of vote was particularly scummy, but that their vote was townie. Since a bunch of other people look more town then guess what? You end up looking more scummy.

Honestly Kravhen, same situation is true of me, I just can see logic.

[Coron]

Yes, I agree that the people who voted Yoshi aren't nessisarily town, but you being there or not has nothing to do with it, and you kept repeating the same pointless comment over and over and over.

[Coron]

Vote: kravhen

[Coron]

Coron just switched from being silent and under the radar for most of the game, to now trying to sweep an easy lynch.

No.

You would've never sprung out like that if I hadn't had votes on me already,

No

I also now see you've abandoned your backseat strategy and decided to launch with opportunism.

No

You were contemplating voting me for your past couple of posts,

Yes.

and now finally you've run out of patience or you think the moment is right.

No, in fact I probably should have voted earlier.

You're scum.

No

Wtf am I lynched?

No

Damnit. I may need an

unvote

here. You're actions were most certainly ridiculous of late, I'm not sure they were scummy though.

[Coron]

See, after thinking about it, when you corner a scum, often times they'll throw every toy they can get your hands on at you, while town will more likely try to keep beating you with the same one. I of course have no actual data to support this, but initially I voted for Kravhen because overreacting to accusations in general tends to be scummy, but then I thought about it more in depth and realized that is wasn't like a standard cornered scum overreaction really.

Thus the unvote.

Also, I guess Armlx vote won't count, but I thought it was a vote initially too.

[Coron]

so, out of 4 people 1 is scum. Wait, who was dahill's partner again? Did he/she ever claim?

[Coron]

so, out of 4 people 1 is scum. Wait, who was dahill's partner again? Did he/she ever claim?

[Coron]

ATM I'd have to say Sethaniel is the best bet.

[Coron]

Just to clarify, I'm not scum.

[Coron]

Just to clarify, I'm not scum.

You know if you were town you would at least try and point out why you think someone is scum and give reasons.

vote: Coron

Not nessisarily. Plus, I think reasons for thinking kravhen are town are fairly obvious now. 1) interaction with armlx. 2) he actions after further review yesterday, see my posts near the end of yesterday

[Coron]

vote: Seth

[Coron]

I'd just like to point out that I'm not scum, don't lynch me. More to come at a later time.

[Coron]

I have my exit exam for my summer class in a couple hours so no reread right now.

Hi guys! I'd be surprised if yesterday's lynch didn't involve a good bit of busing.
To me jex doesn't seem very scummy, ABR has seemed scummy, but no reason to vote him until we have a counterclaim(which if anyone is doctor I would suggest counterclaiming now). I'm at school now, so more reactions later.

This just seems to me that someone is trying to distract from the ABR votes and focus on the Yoshi vote. We already know one scum was on it and obviously the other was not.

I wasn't trying to distract from or to anything really with these statements, if you could explain whether this is a thing you'd think scum would do or town would do and why I could say a bit more.

Hold it, I do not need replacement, at worst I need prodding.

Just like to point out that this game would be far easier to read if you guys posted anything of content or for that matter anything. I mean, this last page has been full of one line posts.
Vote: babygirl for now, as a lurker vote(hypocritical I know) AND because what posts she has don't convince me at all of her protownatude.

Pot this is Kettle. You were just as inactive as baby was.

Hypocritcal, I know.

Honestly, the only reason scum wouldn't have killed the doctor last night is: they're idiots or they want us to think that they're idiots. It is objectively the best play to kill the doctor.

I'm not a fan of you guys jumping all over dahill for this, although I'm also not a big believer that dahill is town, the *sigh* post was kind of iffy.

I would definately be willing to vote in that direction.

Trying to make it look like scum is stupid for not targeting the doctor. Where you on V/LA during that time?

they were. The night lasted from June 1 to June 3, with a deadline of "when you get your choices in" which leads me to believe that scum sent a choice of some kind. For what it's worth, I made no posts on MS from Sunday June 1 at 6:55 pm and Thursday June 5 at 6:56 pm, but I do not specifically recall any reason for me to not visit MS, so who knows, I might have just not posted at all.

This path to the dark side leads.

Absolutely no reason to assume scum wouldn't bus there is.

In fact I find it likely that a minimum of 1 scum was on that wagon.

You were right there was one scum how did you know for sure at least one was on there?

I found it likely, I didn't know. Distinction.

God damn it kravhen, even if Flameaxe wasn't around, what they're saying is that a scum-team member WOULDN'T have voted him, not that your lack of vote was particularly scummy, but that their vote was townie. Since a bunch of other people look more town then guess what? You end up looking more scummy.

A little hard on someone when you, yourself was not voting Yoshi. Why didn't you vote Yoshi by the way?

the person I replaced was also missing at the time, however that doesn't change much of anything about the validity of it as a tell.

Not nessisarily. Plus, I think reasons for thinking kravhen are town are fairly obvious now. 1) interaction with armlx. 2) he actions after further review yesterday, see my posts near the end of yesterday \

Hey you are defending Kravan in all this what happened and why?

Yes, I was. For the two reasons listed.

[Coron]

The first quote bothers me Coron because you stated that you thought Yoshi's lynch would involve quiet a bit of bussing. That is a distancing tactic. To say hey don't look at ABR votes look at those who voted for Yoshi. It's just something I don't care for because I've seen people do it before and turn up scum.

I will work on Kraven's comments/ questions tomorrow.

For what purpose do scum do this?

[Coron]

It's something I will explain after the game if you really don't know. I need to find the energy to to the other post. Sigh. Let me try tomorrow instead. I just don't have it in me right now.

I have thoughts on why I'd think scum would do this. They don't seem to be true in this case though. So, um, yeah. Basically I want to know why you think scum would do this.

[Coron]

Someone saying look at the votes placed on person x is trying to distance themselves from looking scummy. Saying there was probably a lot of bussing with that lynch is just as scummy to me because you are basically saying ignore the fact I didn't vote for Yoshi even though he was scum.
By the way Why didn't you vote for Armix?

First off it's Armlx I believe not armix

Secondly, so I was "distancing" to a wagon that had a scum on it, this seems like a particularly good move?

Thirdly, I wasn't thinking at all about myself, I was thinking of where to look for the scum ya know.

Fourthly, I was considering voting armlx, but wanted to do some rereading first. I take my vote very seriously, and don't like to place it without reason.

[Coron]

Sorry, I've been kind of putting this game on backburners for a while because I had other games I needed to catch up with worse than this game. I think I'm getting replaced in the only game I'm not caught up and contributing in, so I can start to workhorse this game a bit more.

[Coron]

Hi, guys, you know those big winds in the midwest recently? Yeah, that hit the area around me. Hard. I have been without power since monday, and almost had a tree fall on me while I was sleeping(only like 4 or 5 feet away), luckily our house was spared, and am posting this while running the internet off a generator, so I don't know when I will have the oportunity to do any real work on any of my games.

PS. Mod, if you could not deadline this because I'm inactive over the next day or so, which is when I am estimating I get my power back, I'd apreciate it.

[Coron]

Ok, after 1 final review of the circumstances of the no kill I will

Vote: Kravhen

If for no other reasons because this game needs to advance and I am like 95% sure farside is town.

[Coron]

vote: Coron

By far the scummiest post of the game is your last one. Give me a break. No information. No reason just a vote. If you are town this was a terrible game you played.

What reasons would I need to place that vote? I have a person more or less confirmed town, and a person that is not. Hard choice yes? Absolutely not! Especially after 6 days of total inactivity and weeks of almost complete inactivity. Since you are obviously not scum, I will advise you to remove your vote immediately.

[Coron]

vote: Coron

By far the scummiest post of the game is your last one. Give me a break. No information. No reason just a vote. If you are town this was a terrible game you played.

What reasons would I need to place that vote? I have a person more or less confirmed town, and a person that is not. Hard choice yes? Absolutely not! Especially after 6 days of total inactivity and weeks of almost complete inactivity. Since you are obviously not scum, I will advise you to remove your vote immediately.

You haven't made a case and if you are going to use the well you are a confirmed townie so my vote is for this other player that is not going to fly.

That is the reason for my vote, I understand fully that it won't convince you in any way that I'm protown, but that's not what I was doing at the time, I was instead placing my vote.

I'm glad I no longer have to worry about the annoying voice in the back of my mind telling me Farside might be scum anymore now, that's nice.

[Coron]

Also, I would mention that is much harder to analyse players when you aren't actually changing your own opinion, so that's probably why both Kravhen and I have put it off some(a lot).

[Coron]

I'm still not sure where to allocate my vote... but I'm sure of this.

I'm not voting townies.

I don't care about all the math you can feed me to prove or disprove a point about the lover plan, but guys... This is still mafia. We just keep doing our thang and lynch the scum. That's as simple as I can put it. We got a scum on day 1, pretty good, I'm confident we can get another one if we stop getting distracted by strange and obscure plans about lynching lovers. That's just confusing, the results are debatable and unclear... in other words, it's just not pro-town enough a plan for me to support.

Stop going after lovers. 4 lovers, only 1 scum in there. Just lynch another scum instead.
Just like someone else pointed out, isn't it just better to leave the lovers alive as long as possible? They can act as "untouchables" by scum, because as soon as they kill a single lover, the pairs' alignments are revealed and we pretty much jump on the scum-sheltering pair.

Could you explain completely what you meant in the bolded section? Basically because I'm not sure I understand the whole point of the post.

EBWOP: O shit... just realized there was a deadline.. like NOW.
well crap, thats not much time to work here...
I personally don't have a big of a case on Korts but I do think his giving up stance (multiple times, too) is still odd... Ironically enough, I've done that kind of thing as a townie before because I thought it was cool or honorful and all those pretty colors, so i can sorta relate a bit... so I can't possibly vote him simply for that personally.

I'm officially considering it as a non-tell. But it seems the town has already chosen Korts. I guess now is the time when we wait and cross our fingers.

He says well I don't think Korts is scum(trying to avoid any blame), but whatever the town wants(tries not to derail the bandwagon).

i'm a little confused as to why the mafia wouldn't kill the doc?

To be honest, I'd rather not start a discussion on that. WIFOM reasons.

or because you have more info than other people.

scummy as hell ^^^

Vote: dahill

how is that scummy? i was speculating on why they wouldn't kill the doc, which is the town's only confirmed, not scum power role

Why do YOU think the scum didn't kill ABR if he was the doc?
Since you feel comfortable asking others, I wanna hear your own answer just for the lulz.

then you march right in and do what you say you're against, I guess it's fine as long as it's not being asked to scum right?

Oh.
My bad.
I blame waking up too early today. Im starting to see scum everywhere or something.

that's what happens when you're scum.

I guess the only thing we need to know before we 100% clear ABR is to ask the 'real' doc to claim now.

In the absence of a claim, we can confirm ABR.
Even if this generates a fake claim, then we get a guaranteed scum in a 1 for 1 trade, rather than the 1 for 3 trade when we lynch a lover.

I'm not sure another doc claim is necessary at the moment... ABR is 99% certainly a doc, we got a successful protection last night, things are going smoothly doc-wise, IMO

As far as I can tell, the only thing this post could be useful for is telling his scummates not to counterclaim.

Silence and dahill(in a lesser way), the speed on which you jumped on your horses with the lynching rope is noted.

It looked pretty damn OBVIOUS ABR was joking.

It's a win-win situation, and completely defeats the WIFOM that the scum may have been trying to set up by not killing.

We can't know whether they didnt kill or just landed on doc protection... stop assuming =/

It was obv for you because you knew he was town. The second part I actually agree with, and I might have even said similar things, I don't recall, but he's trying to avoid "clearing people" in the eyes of town, which is something I try to do no matter what if they aren't really cleared, but in the general case I think it is more likely as scum than town.

At this point we reach the point where Kravhen begins the whole freaking out about being found scummy for not voting in the first mafia lynch. Apparently my first reading of it, that clasified it as a thing scum would do was right.

EBWOP: Right... right... Farside is "confirmed town" IF ABR is teh truth...
Then wtf are you doing farside?

Still putting doubt on ABR?

EBWOP: Nvm im at L-1....

I finally give enough a damn about this game to actually read stuff AND think about it lengthly and I wind up at L-1. Interesting.

Detective Kravhen is at work, boys and girls, a lynch at the moment is out of the question.

@Armlx: That's a funny vote right there. I wasn't doing anything to progress the discussion? I have been defending myself for the past page or so, some of it because I thought I was misunderstood and/or didn't clearly grasp why I got honored with 2 votes. Especially from confirmed-townie farside. We're not seeing YOU pitching in your opinions either, what do you think?
You awfully smell like scum trying to slip in a L-1 vote on the bandwagon that's most likely to bear fruit at the moment, while avoiding being the evil hammer.

In addition to this vote, these are other actions of yours that tickle my scumdar:

Holy shit Jex was dumb this game.

I like where her vote was though. Looks a lot like another ongoing with KortS scum to say the least, plus the whole lover lynch push....

First line of the game, possibly you trying to sever links with Jex's past scummy actions as fast as possible. I've thought alot about the fact you kept Jex's vote on Korts but I haven't come up with a conclusion yet.

Ah, but you fail to realize the scum have no incentive to kill the lover pair, especially if Korts is scum and is lynched.

The way that sentence is written, it can almost seem like you were

too

familiar with the scum's incentives to kill or not the lover pair.

The big deal comes around the whole lover mambo jumbo. Almost ALL of your theorizing and arguing revolved around lovers. You proposed scenarios of lover lynching and whatnot. Plainly, you sure liked to talk alot about lover theories... EXCEPT you were also relunctant to come to a decision. Look here:

Basically killing any lovers is disadvantageous for both sides until the game is already more or less over.

After that you blah blah a bit more, and then once again take a step back and away from the lover business, with this post:

I'm not sure. I'm sorta ignoring the whole lover scenario until I absolutely have to decide.

So you talk a lot about lovers, but aren't willing to be involved in any lynching regarding them.

FOS: Armlx

. Chance of Armlx being scum... 80%. Chance he's the treacherous lover if he's scum... 95%. I would vote you but I want my vote to be on Coron at least until he reacts to it a bit.

Cornered scum distancing.

The other things I noticed in my reads that I'm not going to bother quoting every instance of here were, claiming that since things weren't certain we should ignore them. Very few things in mafia, or life, are sure, but we go on anyway. The other thing was that he seemed to OMGUS a lot at various points, against me, against the world, against a brick wall, whatever.

So there, have some stuff to look at, hope you're happy

[Coron]

vote: Coron

By far the scummiest post of the game is your last one. Give me a break. No information. No reason just a vote. If you are town this was a terrible game you played.

What reasons would I need to place that vote? I have a person more or less confirmed town, and a person that is not. Hard choice yes? Absolutely not! Especially after 6 days of total inactivity and weeks of almost complete inactivity. Since you are obviously not scum, I will advise you to remove your vote immediately.

You haven't made a case and if you are going to use the well you are a confirmed townie so my vote is for this other player that is not going to fly.

That is the reason for my vote, I understand fully that it won't convince you in any way that I'm protown, but that's not what I was doing at the time, I was instead placing my vote.

I'm glad I no longer have to worry about the annoying voice in the back of my mind telling me Farside might be scum anymore now, that's nice.

By the way why would it be scummy to vote for you? If I was scum I could just join your vote and end this game now.

Er, where did I say it was scummy? I said I no longer had to worry about the annoying voice in the back of my head (You had been confirmed town).

[Coron]

Bump

[Coron]

any time Kravhen.

[Coron]

any time Kravhen.

QFT

He hasn't posted anywhere on MS since his last post here.

[Coron]

Um, how about this. You decide who you want to vote, and if it happens to be me, I'll vote myself to finish this game. I don't really think a replacement at this point would be fair.

[Coron]

Nope, we win.

[Coron]

Um, how about this. You decide who you want to vote, and if it happens to be me, I'll vote myself to finish this game. I don't really think a replacement at this point would be fair.

I'm not adding this game to my win/ loss ratio as town.

You better not.

[Coron]

Um, how about this. You decide who you want to vote, and if it happens to be me, I'll vote myself to finish this game. I don't really think a replacement at this point would be fair.

I'm not adding this game to my win/ loss ratio as town.

You better not.

I'm not. This was a terrible game and part of me felt Kraven was scum, but when you didn't participate in the game I got really suspicious of you.

I was way more active on the last day then Kravhen was. Also, see:

Also, I would mention that is much harder to analyse players when you aren't actually changing your own opinion, so that's probably why both Kravhen and I have put it off some(a lot).

It would have been nice if you had just made up your own opinion a long time ago imho.