Mini 594 - Satin Doll Showdown - {GAME OVER}

[Elmo]

PATRICK

EVERYONE

<3

[Elmo]

/prodded

I'm really sorry, I feel awful. I'll try and post something coherent tomorrow.

[Elmo]

I am honest-to-god writing a post right now. @_@

[Elmo]

Readin' through. Hmm. I seriously doubt Glork would try to fish like that with this crowd. I don't see why 'accusing just to accuse' in the random stage is a scumtell; might be unwise, but more than a few people will jump on literally anything to get out of random. I do figure Incog has a point, inthat his vote is probably actually weaker than Ether's, but hasd doesn't jump on it anything like the same way. I'm also not sure how hasd can say 'we do need a start to the game, and this is a good one' and then say Ether was 'trying too hard'. Can you try too hard to get the game off to a good start? @_@. I somewhat agree with Erg0 that Glork's stance here appears kinda.. standoffish? Passive? Post 67 even seems a lil' passive-aggressive, hum. Albeit I agree with the conclusion (obv, some players will wagon anything with a pulse - I believe that's consistent with Ether) Glork's comment doesn't appear to actually do anything other than prompt further comment from both sides. Mizzy appears to be dancing (heh) around the exchange. I don't agree with Tarhalindur's comment on Erg0, 68 seemed to take stances on people in a reasonable manner, although I see what he's getting at with Ether.

I'm mainly just sitting back with some popcorn and watching the whole Ether <--> Glork thing going on. Neither of one of them are acting out of character, I think, so as of yet, I have no opinions on who is scummy.

Um, hi?

I don't understand Incognito's vote in 85. I can see he'd be curious, but the natural thing to do is simply ask "Hey, Glork, why'd you miss me out?" - I really can't see any reason for a vote, there. IIRC, Mizzy has a tendency to assert that we can't know much early on - I disagree, but I don't think her qualifiers are significant here. I kinda agree with scotmany wrt Tar, hm. Oh, noes, we're not having this 'to be honest' debate, are we? I don't like Hasd's 131, that looks very like 'hey, look, I'm doing stuff! Only not!' hrhrm. It seems to me like Tar puts too much stock in the Standard Tells, here - although I have seen IIoA before, I don't think what Erg0's doing fits that pattern, although you could see it that way due to confirmation bias if you were specifically looking for it, hm. I figure it's a good tell, but generally limited.. Tar's play seems very by-the-numbers, I'm not sure if that's in character. Hm, I disagree with Patrick about Glork's nitpicking, that seems precisely the kinda thing he picks up on (thinking back to Open 54 here) most frequently. hasdgfas's 153 strikes me as staying near the sidelines for some reason.. not sure I like that. My vague impression was he was like that in Pine Barrens, all tentative like.. I can't remember if I've seen him as town, yet. I agree with PokerFace that I don't see a real basis for calling Mizzy pro-town yet - I can't remember who did that, maybe I'll go and look back in a bit, hm. Ether seems a little different than I recall from Big Love, but then I replaced in a loooong way from the start, so perhaps it's just different circumstances, like... I can see prodding and poking random details as a good way to get things going, but you'd switch away from that after a bit. Mmm. I do quite like a lot of PokerFace's 158. Incognito seems to be making a bunch of good points hereafter.

Glork: What underlying reason do you have for acting as you are, when making post 172?
Patrick/Ether: What does Tar feel like relative to Farscape? I don't think I've seen them in a game before.
Incog: What is '42%' in post 27? Why do you like your Mizzy vote in 175?
hasdgfas: Why don't you like unprompted lists of pro-town people on 'gut' (181)? Why haven't you criticised Glork for doing exactly that? How precisely has Glork been 'useful'?
Mizzy: Can you give an example or three of Patrick's questions, and explain how they are not designed to scumhunt?
MafiaSSK: Can you explain why you thought those bunch of people were townish?

Deadline vote probably goes to cow. Humma.

[Elmo]

Patrick: What comes to mind is the way he called Sikario town, saying "there's something there that doesn't quite look made up" - there wasn't any analysis of his behaviour or anything, just based on the subtext of what he wrote. Now, I don't think 'to be honest' is a valid tell, and it actually seems markedly less sophisticated than I'd expect Glork to be, but it's the same 'class' of analysis that I saw from him, I think. So while I agree there's something weird about him here, I don't agree with your characterisation of him being as unusually nit-picky. I don't think it's a valid tell, no - I hate these kinds of accusation precisely because they rarely go anywhere. And that's really what seemed interesting to me, there's almost certainly very little play in it, but he's running with it anyway. In a vacuum, I'd be liable to think distancing. One thing I do remember thinking in O54 was that Glork was quite careful in selecting which questions to ask, and they were usually quite productive - I think he could be playing much better regardless of alignment, right now, and I don't know what to make of that. I'm simultaneously a little suspicious and a little bemused.

Incog: What is the comparison being drawn for 'uncharacteristically useless'? I don't believe we've been in a completed game together.
Tarhalindur: To what extent do you rely on your Standard Tells vs. thinking on-the-fly? How frequently do you get significant mileage out of them as town? How do you (ab)use them when scum?
Pokerface: How heavily do you generally use metagaming? How do you feel it helps you? If I were to metagame you, would I find you placing an unusual emphasis on metagaming here, and why?
Mizzy: Can you give 2-3 examples of

precisely

what you mean about Patrick's questions? I don't follow what you mean here, and I didn't notice him doing anything similar when I saw him as scum previously.

With the quality of the players in this game, I'd actually expect scum to be more nit-picky than town anyway.

Really? Why?

hasdgfas: Why don't you like unprompted lists of pro-town people on 'gut' (181)? Why haven't you criticised Glork for doing exactly that? How precisely has Glork been 'useful'?

Hascow, ^ qwestions. And: why is 'reaching' in the random stage scummy? Why is 'being stupid' scummy? What's the best single reason that you're voting SSK?

I'm unmoved by cow's claim; I'm just not going to drink the wine on that one. I'll prolly lay down a vote tomorrow, after staring at the playerlist some more.

[Elmo]

I'm vanilla; I'm gonna

vote hasdgfas

for obvious reasons. I'm not sure there's any point writing a longer post, but I'll do it anyway.

[Elmo]

Yeah, I can't see anything good coming from speculating about the bouncer right now.

Tarhalindur: To reiterate: To what extent do you rely on your Standard Tells vs. thinking on-the-fly? How frequently do you get significant mileage out of them as town? How do you (ab)use them when scum? You didn't answer this before, opting to attack me instead; why? Do you believe the IIoA tell applied to Patrick, given Mizzy's stance towards him yesterday?
Mizzy: Why were you 'not comfortable' with my lynch? What does that mean, exactly? If you weren't, why did you vote for someone who would not obviously get lynched at deadline, when cow was at four?
Erg0: What precisely in 306 is sufficient to cast a lynching vote? Why are you 'not sure that he's quite as obvscum as Tar would have us believe'? Why, precisely, would ElmoScum shy away from casting a lynching vote near deadline after I've

specifically stated

I would probably do so?
PokerFace: What of the bolded parts in 278 do not logically follow from cow's indicated posts? What precisely does 'not great own analysis' mean, here?
Ether: Why did you feel the need to announce that you did not oppose my wagon?

Hmm. I do think

vote Tarhalindur

is a good direction. I'm trying to account for OMGUS (I am

Not Happy

about my wagon) but I really do not see any game-specific reasoning in 239; it's more like he's picked a Standard Tell and then jumped on something he can paint as that. The way my wagon went, I'd be

amazed

if it were scum-free, so we'll start here; his behaviour is certainly indistinguishable from 'scum looking someplace to go', distinct from Patrick's meta of merely saying things that look wrong - I've now skimmed Farscape, and your play there is much more concentrated around things outside of your common tells. Also, your scumlist in 293 is actually extremely wishy-washy, apart from myself: MafiaSSK needs to say who he suspects (but there is no reasoning given why he is newbscum as opposed to newbtown), Incognito has been under your radar (and apparently this is

his

problem rather than yours), you have a

weak

scum read on Erg0 based on his 'unwillingness to come out and outright say that another player is scum' when

he's just voted you and called you his strongest suspect

, and scotmany is under your radar, and apparently scum for talking about 'lynch preferences' rather than scum. Last time I checked, we preferred to lynch people we thought were scum, so I can't see the distinction. Everyone else is neutral or townish. Precisely

what

strong conclusions do you draw about who the scum are in that post? What is the underlying difference between what is happening there and what you were criticising me for supposed to be?

I am suppressing the desire to make a big post. I think that's for the best. I would like all three people on my wagon yesterday to summarise why, and to state if they still want me lynched, and why.

[Elmo]

Unvote

. I'm not leaving that vote when I have yet to read the last few pages in depth. I firmly believe that a short day today is bad, anyhow.

I'm inclined to think Glork's pissed-off-ness is genuine, but he's a tough cookie to read at the best of times.. certainly I think cooling off can only be a good thing - I think we need less of the caps lock here. I don't personally know enough setup meta to try and form a decent guess (I don't think I've ever been alive in a mini with a cop claim) about Tar, and even then we currently know very little about the setup. For the same reason, I don't know about counterclaims; they wouldn't influence my thinking, personally.

I am more interested in the day game than the night game, right now, so I strongly support a Glork Grilling today. I can't see a downside; this isn't the kind of crowd who will fall prey to "just let me live another day!" tactics. I hate basing this kind of decision on claims, anyway.

Ether: Why do you believe Tar so quickly?

[Elmo]

Tarhalindur & Erg0: Answer my questions from 348, please.

2) Going from "willing to vote him at deadline" to "not moved by his claim" looked extremely contrived to me, implying strong feelings for has being scum that are not indicated by his prior play (which showed little more than a weak preference for a has lynch, as far as I could tell).

What is difficult to comprehend about "not moved"? My opinion has not changed based on his claim. There is no movement. It is motionless. I will leave the Monty Python sketch as an exercise to the reader; why do you believe that it implies strong feelings? It means what

it says

.

Glork: What is the reasoning behind being "intentionally difficult, so as to stir the pot" on day 1? When you voted hasdgfas, what would you have estimated the chances of his lynch as? What specifically in your reread changed hasdgfas's position in your scum list? What was your FoS of Patrick designed to achieve? What was your read of him throughout day 1? What was your read on Incognito at the time of post 130, and throughout the day? I don't understand why you've made the transition to "if you're an actual Cop". What affected your view of this?
SSK: What do you find useful about lurking? What is your current understanding of some players (anyone, in some detail), and how has lurking helped that?
Ether: What specifically do you mean by "Tar feels more like himself now"? How has his play changed significantly since Day 1? Why do you believe Tar? Why so quickly?
hasdgfas: What has come of your isolated reread of Tar, promised in 390?
PokerFace: I'd like a response to Glork's 375, in particular. If I've missed it, I apologise.

[Elmo]

PokerFace (when you get back): What did you think of Tar's wagon? What does "A bit BS" mean, specifically?
SSK: Some players (Yosarian2, MeMe) have a particular policy of paying special attention to lurkers. How would you analyse such a player with that method?
Glork: I think you missed some questions in my last post, s'il vous plait.

[Elmo]

Hmm, I'm feeling lazy. That can't be a good sign. I probably need to reread again.

I am assuming that Glork knows how to play his metagame, and that the "obstinate" d1 style gets used equally as town/scum. If that's wrong, someone correct me; I have no desire to plough through however many completed games. I'm not influenced by that in either direction. I sort of expected Glork to grill everyone apart from Tar and get a read from him based on that. Doesn't seem to have happened, so much. Inertia means I still dislike Tar. Eh.

Tar: How do you feel I've treated Glork? What precisely is a "supertell" here?
Glork: What does your scumgroup look like now? iirc, you protect people by taking them into the VIP section, but the flavour indicates kills happen after everyone's gone home - can you comment on that? Can you articulate why you thought Patrick was scum?
Ether: Why did you forget the possibility of a mafia roleblocker (iirc)? Why did you accept Glork's towntell on roland readily if you came into today feeling neutral (?) about Glork?

[Elmo]

Wow, Glork's either mega pissed or doing a very good impression of it. Less seems to be happening than I thought. Huh. That's weird. Glork, you were going to, y'know,

grill people

, with fire and laser beams and stuff. We've got deadline in like ten days now, and if you're town you're probably not seeing the dawn of day 3 either way, so..?

I think you basically have to accept that either Glork made an uncharacteristic slip or he somehow planned out his claim from the very start whilst deliberately dropping a hint for no apparent reason. The second is just far too conspiracy-theoretic, really. I believe you can interpret it as banter to start off with (c.f. Mizzy), but comments like "my comment would have stated more about my own role than seeking reaction from others" seemed off to me at the time... I don't think it's ambiguous that there's some deliberate construction there. I am more prepared to believe this simply because I know Glork's been significantly pressed for time recently (and I believe that may have fed into his day 1 play, regardless of alignment) if I'm remembering correctly.

The "bodyguard"? Where? You're not thinking of the bouncer, right? The bouncer (flavour name) appears to be a governor (role name), distinct from bodyguard (role name). I don't think you're being scummy, just dense atm.

Actually, I find frustration a pretty good towntell. You?

[Elmo]

While I remember: I've seen a game where Seol claimed non-vanilla with his first post. I can believe it, y'know?

[Elmo]

Vote

:

Tarhalindur

. Incognito: Metagame me, hey? Not sure I can be more specific than that. Gonna eat something, I'll read through again and post later; was expecting more from Glork, but I definitely come down on this side.

[Elmo]

PokerFace: I mean it in the literal sense as you describe, in that things move until something interacts with them; I didn't like Tar (e.g. 348) and nothing's changed my mind.

HERE BE REASONING, anyway, although obviously some of this is liable to have been posted before.

* Tar's post 293 indicates that he would probably have investigated Glork if he was a cop.
* The timing of Tar's claim seems reasonable.
* I think it's entirely possible that Glork slipped up when the vanilla role PM wasn't already posted; reminds me of this game.
* There are clear breadcrumbs (e.g. post 48) laid by Glork that point to his claimed flavour.
-> Dancing girl is a fairly obvious flavour to fakeclaim for, and has good potential as a "counterclaim-drawing claim".
-> At the time of post 48, Glork either slipped for real or deliberately 'planted' such.
-> I can't think of a good reason to deliberately plant such. Locking yourself into a particular claim as scum just seems like a bad idea.
-> Slipping-for-real would mean he is an exotic dancer; this does not mean he is pro-town. A common flavour for a mafia roleblocker is a dancer, and his claimed ability is identical if he's scum.
-> The mafia are probably not all dancers. (!?)
-> If he is scum, then the pre-game conversation (can they talk pre-game?) would likely have alerted him to his different flavour, and he wouldn't have slipped. In my limited experience, scum tend to be more cautious about making that kind of sweeping assumption about the flavour anyway, since they're the odd-ones-out by definition.
-> Therefore this is a pro-town sign for Glork; only the degree is realistically debatable in my mind.
* A pro-town Glork lynch today would mean instant death for Tar tomorrow.
-> PokerFace asserts it's too much of a risk for Tar to trade one-for-one. I can't see it getting any better if he

is

scum, really.
-> An innocent result would require less commotion, but also be less convincing. I certainly don't think this line of "if he were scum, he'd do ___" arguments holds much water, anyway.
* Glork asserts that one should sit on a guilty. Tar asserts that he's traded himself one-for-one with a powerful scum as a cop in the past. I haven't looked up the games, but I don't see this as meaningful.
* Tar's flavour seems odd. The idea that the FBI already has all these people on their database, but he's been sent in to investigate.. it jars a little, no?
* Glork's flavour is also slightly weird; OGML says everyone leaves for the night, but Glork claims to keep someone behind in the VIP lounge. I suppose I could see someone staying overnight, though, so Glork comes out marginally ahead here.
* Glork getting pissed is apparently a towntell. I'm too leery of 'manufactured' metagames to buy into it a lot.
-> Scum do not genuinely get frustrated with not being believed, because they know deep down they shouldn't be, because they're lying. Telling the truth and being disbelieved is immensely frustrating for most people. In that sense, his reaction does ring true to me; it's difficult to forge, and faking it doesn't strike me as the kind of thing GlorkScum would do.
* Tar hasn't actually defended himself significantly beyond claiming. He's been away a lot, but still.
* Glork's day 1 play would be more likely to draw an investigation than his normal play? Perhaps; I'm not sure his behaviour changes much. If you assert that, though, this 'obstinate' play becomes a towntell; that doesn't sound right, does it? Anyone with a brain would jump at that when scum. I can't imagine Glork avoiding such behaviour when scum if he does it when town (apparently so). Neutral for me.

...some more stuff may follow, if I feel like it. Eh. Hence Tar vote.

So the red text constitues my "recent posts sucking"?

That and the claim, yes, pretty much.

I still can't get my head around this. What precisely about posting in red text is 'sucking' enough for a vote?

Ether: Why did you forget the possibility of a mafia roleblocker (iirc)?

I forgot because I failed to remember? I'm not sure what I'm supposed to say here.

It's a pretty common scenario, isn't it? The town from Traditional was fairly snowed because a cop counterclaimed early and was subsequently neutered for the rest of the game, for example. I don't understand why this didn't occur to you.

I don't think "hottest" equates to either "exotic" or "VIP lounge." I am bringing this up because I do not think it has already been brought up.

Ether, if anything, my comment would have stated more about my own role than seeking reaction from others. I assure you. I was goofing around.

That is, unless you think I'm actually a gorgeous exotic dancer.

Does this not seem, y'know, at least a little out of place in retrospect for GlorkScum?

[Elmo]

eldarad, "Glorktown would recognise a 1 for 1 trade for a Tarscum as a pretty good trade" - why?

Vote

:

PokerFace

.

FoS

:

hasdfgfas

,

Eldarad

.

Actuall stuff when I don't feel like crap, i.e. tomorrow maybe. I'm considering asking for replacement, but hopefully it won't be necessarily.

[Elmo]

hasdgfas: Do you believe Ether is a competent player?
Assuming yes: Do you believe there's a reasonable chance of her being pro-town? If not, why?
Assuming yes: She's said she'd rather not get into it now... why are you implying this is anti-town? Essentially the possibilities wherein it is good for her to share her viewpoint is:
1) if she is anti-town;
2) if she is pro-town and it is beneficial for her to do so. If she is town, she is obviously in the best position to decide if it's likely to be beneficial. So your remark would imply you think she is anti-town, right? Or that it's somehow scummy to obliquely mention something? I can't see any legit reason for that remark.

[Elmo]

Okay, I've briefly gone over the game again.

Hmmm. PokerFace is really into metagaming (c.f. 158 and like every day 1 post) but leaves it until 633 to say "I think i may be dealing with the same Elmo I saw in 'Dynamite Stick Mafia'", after voting to lynch me day 1 for play that seems similar, if not better - I lurked the entire game, for one. This is one thing that bugged me, but I didn't quite pin down until now. You've been metagaming, but ignore the one game we've been in together to jump onto a scum-led wagon? Explain.

I'm struggling to understand why the wagon on me formed if cow's town. It

looks

like a classical counter-wagon. I'd be fairly happy lynching him, I think, but I think I'd prefer PF, since his tells seem relatively more direct. Perhaps I'm just being contrary, here.. I'm pretty happy arbitrarily killing either of them.

Ether could be scum. I'm kind of mulling that one. I don't want to lynch her today. That's about it.

[Elmo]

Hmm, I guess that's what Ether meant about him failing to clear people.

Erg0: Talk to me about your casual comment that Tar looked "like his SK self" on day 1. Why didn't you take it further? Looking back, it seems that just sorta floats out there on its own.

PF: You've been metagaming, right? What's your meta on Erg0 look like, specifically?

[Elmo]

Hmm, Mizzy's generally quite equivocal, but I gotta say, I don't understand why you'd go as far as not wanting to lynch one of Glork/Tar that day. "You didn't need me for a lynch" seems like a way to avoid taking a stance on either of them rather than engaging with the issue. I'm not sure why controversial = bad in 648, for example. I also don't get where she gets her read on SSK from, considering she wanted him lynched over {Tar|Glork}, when I would've imagined that case would be much more clear-cut. The fact that her access has been so limited means I don't have much context to put that in. Actually, there's not much Mizzy in the thread; I don't think she's been scum on the site? There's not enough to draw a solid conclusion, really. But I don't like her day 2 play, no.

Eldarad's attack on her smells townish. It's certainly the kind of thing he'd notice and go after as a townie, at least. It's not really OMGUS, is it? SSK seemed like a standard wide-eyed newbie, but I never really got much of a read on him. Pretty odd that a newbie follows a policy of lurking.. not quite sure what to make of it. Not really suspicious to my mind, anyway, so I'm leaning town on him.

Erg0: I can't remember precisely what it was, but apparently I was under your radar due to being agreeable. Could you outline exactly how that works for us?

I should write more stuff and do more things. Struggling to be motivated to do anything.. pretty much okay with killing Erg0. Infact, I might just proxy my vote to Incognito indefinitely, hah. Like.. at what point is it okay to put Erg0 at -1 if we're worried about self-lynching?

[Elmo]

Getting on a plane today, woo.

I have to /agree with Yosarincognito2. I don't ever ever close my mind and just not listen to people, so obviously I want to use the available time to discuss, but I do think both the double standard/distancing and the opportunistic manner (oh, I didn't notice you there, let me deadline lynch you plz) in which he climbed onto my wagon is telling. I should really have got a reread in before I left, I guess I'll have to do that while I'm 8-)ing. Byeee.

[Elmo]

Checkin' in.

I dunno what Mizzy & Incog are doing, but I'm glad that's over. I figure based on the kills we only have one scumgroup. Unless they're really high-powered, then a jailkeeper, a governer, and probably a cop is too much for two scum.. three is standard for minis, so I'm assuming that until anything indicates otherwise.

Erg0: Why was my wagon 'under your radar' on day 1? What brought you to my attention just leading up to deadline? I concede that you have a history of being right too quietly, but this doesn't look like that. In Big Love, you posted a case on ryan and kinda shuffled around and lurked. Here, you haven't posted a case, just commented that he looks like he did when scum without giving specific details.. I haven't gone back and read the game you referenced (I think), but I'd be hard pressed to be convinced to vote for him based on what you posted. I could at least understand why you took the stance you did on ryan in Big Love... do you see where I'm at, here?

I hafta say I don't really see IncogScum. I think it's some variant of Eldarad / Erg0 / PF. Seeya.

[Elmo]

Hi, I got back from holiday yesterday, like my sig said

Wanna chill for a day or so and reread PF

[Elmo]

I acknowledge I am slacking; I'll post something today.

[Elmo]

I'm kinda frazzled right now, but I've been procrastinating for too long. I've reread some of the game.. we've got what, five days left? Damn, I'm actually going to have to do stuff now, aren't I

Can I just ask why anyone felt the need to comment on Mizzy's role? I've been sitting on that for a while. Thanks, Mizzy

I still prefer PF. I'm going to do my standard thing of going over the game again before voting, but it's mostly out of habit/discipline at this point. It just looks like a forced win from here unless I'm wrong about Incognito. *shrug*

[Elmo]

Hmm. Scot's movement around Erg0 seems different to Tar. Very clearly gunning for Erg0's death. It might be that he's acting more aggressively because there's already one dead scum; there seems a marked change in his stance towards me over night 1. Scot's last comment about me on day 1 is "The elmo wagon is intriguing. I don't really have a solid meta on him, so I don't know what to think of him...I could see him as scum...". His second post day 2 votes Tar and defends me against him. Interestingly, he later says that if Tar's town, then "I would have to take a long look at elmo as well as some other players". That sounds inconsistent to me; if Tar's town, there is no basis to be more suspicious of me, and indeed he defended me against Tar's case two posts before. I think what was happening was that he was simply flipping his real point of view round; that is, Elmo's likely town because of Tar's behaviour towards him. It looks a little like he investigated me or Tar N1; he did seem a little curious about me D1. He also says "If Tar is scum as I think he is, then I would view elmo as protown" which ties nicely to what he would be thinking with a guilty on Tar. It looks more that he got a guilty on Tar N1 to me.

The only time I can remember playing with Glork as town, he insisted that the doc protect the claimed cop instead of trying any WIFOM. Perhaps it's not entirely analogous, but I'd lean away from believing he didn't jailkeep Scot unless someone brought up something specific and convincing. Perhaps if Glork didn't, he got a framed guilty on cow.. I can't see any other possible result fitting his actions. It all seems academic at this point.

N1 - Guilty on Tar (possibly innocent on me?)
N2 - Roleblocked by Glork(?) / Framed Guilty on cow?
N3 - Guilty on Erg0

That's my reading at the moment.

---

As per usual 3-to-a-mini assumption, we're probably got one mafioso left. I can't see framer+GF working as a setup, really. Roleblocker might be possible.. my balance knowledge is a bit shaky, heh. That would double the chance of screwing up the cop as opposed to a goon, though. Is that balanced? I can't think of any other common roles.. the only thing I'd be really worried about is a one-shot extra kill, or something like that. Don't see it as likely, though.

---

Incognito's attack on Glork D1 looks odd, but not contrived; I think regardless of his alignment, he genuinely misinterpreted what Glork said. The manner in which he attacked him seems townish, too; I've rarely seen scum who will freely chose to attack someone experienced when there's no momentum against them. Incognito's Glork vote on D2 could be viewed as trying to fuel a wagon against Glork in a vacuum, but it looks more like he previously had decent reasons to be suspicious of Glork and is just having them confirmed by Tar's claim. He unvotes an hour later, saying "While I'm glad that my P.E. #1 was potentially investigated as guilty, it bothers me that my P.E. #2 happened to be the investiga

tor

" which seems about right, to me. Glork's D1 play was certainly tricky-to-read.. I suppose I'm biased towards him because he spoke up for me. His apology in Glork's direction certainly strikes me as genuine. I don't understand the Tar hammer; that's the only thing that sticks out in my mind as odd, but it's not really enough to be significant. Literally nothing past day 3 strikes me as scummy; if he's mafia, he's real slick.

Eldarad's case on Incognito seems to revolve around him voting off-wagon to avoid heat from my mislynch rather than genuinely suspecting Glork. It's a common enough pattern, but there was enough reason to be suspicious of Glork; Patrick, for example, was giving him heat. You'd have to show that his attack was insincere, and I don't see a basis for that, right now.

Hum, reading though: Incognito, in 734, you said that you'd rather not put Erg0 because "he himself might self-vote to prevent us from gaining any additional information from today". That was the day

after

hammering Tar, where in 597 you said that "It doesn't really matter when the hammer happened; we derived enough information from today to figure things out from here". Can you describe what changed between those two? When do you currently consider it germane to end the day?

It occurred that my reasoning means that my read on Incognito is more important than PF / Eldarad; I'll try and post questions for them tomorrow. I'd like both of them, Eldarad in particular, to comment on Incognito's alignment.

[Elmo]

Oh, wow. I think that provably breaks it. Working on checking it now.

[Elmo]

It are kinda like a finite state machine, if you're curious.

I = INNOCENT
T = TOWNIE
M = MAFIOSO
PokerFace = REAL SUPERSAINT (S) OR FAKE SUPERSAINT (F)

If PokerFace is town, the current state is IISTM.
If PokerFace is scum, the current state is IIFTT.
I've explored the other strategies; I'll just show recommended moves rather than all possible ones. This is pessimistic; it only details the worst possible case. For example, we might hypothetically lynch the vanilla-claiming mafioso today.

[col]PF Town[col]PF Scum0[col]IISTM[col]IIFTT1[col]IISM[col]IIFT2[col]ISM[col]IFT3[col]I[col]IT
0. Initial state.
1. Lynch a vanilla claimer.
2. An innocent is killed.
If PF is town: If the mafioso kills S, they are left with IIM, which is autowin. They must kill I to leave ISM.
If PF is scum: If he kills T, he is left with IIF, which is autowin. He must kill I to leave IFT.
3. Vanilla claimer hammers PokerFace.
If PF is town: The mafioso is force to hammer, and dies, leaving one innocent. If he doesn't hammer, he's lynched, and dies.
If PF is scum: He dies.

I'm pretty sure that's right. I would go for eldarad's option 1. I don't see a potential problem with it, as long as we're all agreed before anything happens, and we're active near deadline. There are other things we could do, but nothing else that guarantees a win. As I understand it: I agree, Incogntio agress, Eldarad agrees, Mizzy is thinking, PokerFace hasn't commented.

It'd be nice for someone to check the above, if they were inclined to.

[Elmo]

<-- here!

I figured people would remember I claimed on day 1; perhaps I should have posted a reminder. To be formal about it, I'm a patron / vanilla townie.

Huh. Okay, 14 hours 'till deadline, plenty of time. *scribbles*

[Elmo]

I'm kind of utterly hosed at the moment; I hope this is intelligible.. anyway, here is post o' doom, piecemeal posting agogo.

Incognito's 42% comment. Hmm. It's kind of difficult to read this right - you can look at Mizzy's comment to Glork earlier, yeah? That could pretty easily be buddying up, or it could be banter pre-game. The only difference is that Incognito's referencing something outside the game, here. I can't see why he'd be more likely to bring it up as scum; in fact, I'd think reminding people of the (joke, but still) likelihood of being scum would be

bad

from his point of view - maybe it's a subconscious thing or whatever, but scum generally shy away from doing that. If he'd brought it up in some manner that was trying to evade scrutiny or something, I could see what you were getting at, but here I disagree.

If Incognito contrived his move onto Glork, there should be some evidence that it was manufactured, and not genuine. There isn't, that I can see. I do agree that his move away from hasdgfas is coincidentally timed to stay off a possible lynch wagon; buuut I also find that he has good reason to be switching to Glork, in particular Patrick was also going after him for roughly the same reasons. It's the reasoning behind the switch

away

from hasdgfas that seems to be what you're highlighting, which is him claiming vanilla early in the game. I have to say, it's too speculative for my taste, I wouldn't have followed the same reasoning, but I don't really have a problem with it.. I don't see a persuasive reason to make the cut from 'incorrect' (say) to 'scummy', really. Yes, I'd agree it's possible, but I also don't see any indication that it's actually true.

I do think PokerFace's point about MafiaSSK's lurking is valid, Eldarad - some people do have large shifts in playstyle based on alignment. Not everyone, no, but some people. If you can imagine alignment -> playstyle 'buckets' where some playstyles are virtually always used by a certain alignment, I think you'll see what I think he meant. SSK's (no offence intended) is certainly inexperienced enough to have that kind of disconnect in his play, no? I personally don't think lurking is a reliable scumtell, but it looks like you're actually trying to strawman him, here; alignment and role PMs being linked does not mean there has to be one single pro-town playstyle stemming from the same PM. I think hypothetically you could argue that there are technically twice as many different playstyles as players, one for town and one for scum, right? It follows that it may well be a tell for one person, and not another. I don't agree with him, but I'm not entirely happy with the way you handled this.

2. An innocent is killed.
If PF is town: If the mafioso kills S, they are left with IIM, which is autowin. They must kill I to leave ISM.

PokerFace, I did consider the possibility that you were nightkilled. I was careful to examine all possible actions, even ones that seemed nonsensical.

Part 1 of ~4...

[Elmo]

Right, grabbing a couple hours sleep seems to have cleared my head a bit. I'm gonna go through each and try and look at the arguments for each being scum, based on PF's claim. Number two:

Get the picture yet? Thats why I want elderad to hammer me. I'm a super saint! Well my theme name is

Obnoxious Drunk

.

I was actually going to question you about what you seemed to be hinting at when I was gonna do my PBPA of you and eldarad today. I figured you might be trying to hint to something when you mentioned that eldarad should hammer and when you questioned Mizzy about her role's details.

So, first observation, Incognito picked up on this beforehand, which changes the interpretation a little bit; he might've had time to prepare a response in case he was right. I'm not sure if picking up on it is a towntell or not; I think the amount of attention paid by town vs. scum depends on the person, actually.

Did you breadcrumb at this role at some earlier point within the game?

Okay, asking for breadcrumbs is standard procedure when someone claims, but it's clearly connected to questioning whether PokerFace really is a SS or not. If he expressed the view that he was a fake, the standard response from a real SS would be "If you think I'm scum, then hammer me", which basically forces him to put his money where his mouth is. That's definitely something scum would want to avoid. On that basis, there's only really a pro-town motive for asking for breadcrumbs. So, I believe this is a towntell.

If you're really a supersaint and you don't receive the number of votes required for a full majority's lynch today, does the person who placed the last vote on you still die along with you?

It's an exploratory question, trying to get more information on the mechanics of his claim.. I can see both alignments doing this.

The way I see it is if PF is scum fake-claiming SS and eldarad refuses to hammer, then PF might choose to not self-hammer to try and draw a pardon from Mizzy to live another day as she's left wondering whether or not he's telling the truth or if he's lying about his role. And with eldarad insisting that I'm scum, I could see him refusing to hammer which makes this a pretty good scum fake-claim at this point. Bleh.

He seems to be looking for ways that PF-scum can wriggle through the situation - I think a mafioso would believe PF, and be more likely to quickly flip away from him being scum. I think that continuation of his train of thought is a towntell.

If PF is town and telling the truth, then eldarad has to be scum, and he'll still use his "insistence" that I'm scum as reason to not want to hammer PF.

That could be interpreted as scum keeping his options open, but I think it's clearly necessary to consider the possibility that PF is town either way. This whole post has the flavour of exploring options rather than recommending a specific course of action; I think that's similar to a normal decision-making process, which indicates he's trying to chose the best one. Kinda speculative small towntell.

The alternative to lynching PF for you guys I guess could be deciding which of the two (me or eldarad) is more likely to be scum and lynching one of us today. If we lynch wrong, then the situation can be evaluated tomorrow and a decision could be made about whether to believe PF or to believe the person who was not lynched today.

It's quite close to the optimal play, but not quite. That's kind of interesting, I would have expected him to think it through further.. on the other hand, he'd need to think it through as both alignments, to plan out what happens as scum. Either neutral or a small towntell, I'm not really sure.

Oooor if we do decide to go through with PF's lynch, PF, will you definitely be around at deadline? If so, then if you're town and eldarad is scum refusing to hammer, then I'd say self-hammering, like you suggested above, would be the way to go since that would at least prevent the last person to vote for you from dying. If you don't self-hammer, then Mizzy should not pardon you, and she should allow your lynch to go through. We just need your confirmation that you'll be around at deadline, or we could probably do this well before deadline if someone else votes for PF right now so that no uncertainty about the plan of action exists.

If we agree to this plan of action, and I'm not chosen to be today's lynch, then yeah, I will hammer PF tomorrow if I'm still around.

If

we agree to this plan of action might be scum wanting to back out, seeing if anyone else will go for a different one. On the other hand, from IncogTown's point of view, the worst case is (I think?) that we aren't coordinated, so it's important for him that everyone agrees on what's going to happen. I figure it's null.

That took too long. Let's see if the next one's quicker.

[Elmo]

I'm not hammering PokerFace Today.

Pretty flat refusal, there. That's roughly what I'd expect from scum at that point.

The alternative to lynching PF for you guys I guess could be deciding which of the two (me or eldarad) is more likely to be scum and lynching one of us today. If we lynch wrong, then the situation can be evaluated tomorrow and a decision could be made about whether to believe PF or to believe the person who was not lynched today.

I agree with this if people are fairly happy with PokerFace's claim.

He states that PF's claim matters, and we see he only posts the autowin later, so I'd imagine that he doesn't appreciate where this leads at the time of posting. Might be trying to direct people towards questioning PF's claim, on the chance that someone'd call him out on it. I detect some element of reluctance in his agreement; maybe I'm seeing things, I don't know. Slightly scummy.

From my POV, if PokerFace is town then if I hammer the town loses since we lose 3 townies - 2 from the lynch plus a NK - which leaves 1 scum vs 1 townie at dawn.

Pretty much null, I think. You'd be making that argument as either alignment.

My next step - depending on how Elmo and Mizzy reacted - was likely going to be:
"I'm not hammering PokerFace. If you think that makes me scum, lynch me instead"

I'm not sure why this would depend on how me and Mizzy react. I could possibly see 'lynch me instead' as gambling that we would go for Incognito hammering PF today instead, but that doesn't really fit - I can't think of a reason he'd believe that. It seemed pretty clear to me that he'd be lynched if PF wasn't. Above, Mizzy says "And Eld, you've been my number 2 choice for scum for a long time." which might imply there's something I've missed whereby he might have misjudged Mizzy's position on him.. I can't find it, though, if it's there. I think this only shows he believes PF; it's bad to hammer him as either alignment, obviously. Null, for me.

If we lynch Incog Today and I'm still alive Tomorrow I'll hammer PF. I promise.

---

If Incog is willing to commit to the same then I'll be happy regardless of whether Incog or I get lynched Today.

---

In fact, unless Mizzy or Elmo are scum, that guarantees a town win.

1) Lynch me Today, Tomorrow Incog hammers PokerFace;
2) Lynch Incog Today, Tomorrow I hammer PokerFace.

{snip}

Have I missed something here?

I have real difficulty seeing how a scumbag would post that, unless they thought that town would rapidly get to it and wanted the cred for posting it. It seems like suicide for fear of dying, though. I really can't see him doing that as scum.

I still think you're being thick, eldarad, but meh.

Heh. Actually, your reaction to this makes me think that PokerFace is the scum rather than you.
But I don't see the point of taking the chance of hammering PokerFace Today if he's telling the truth.

Certainly unusual if he's scum, because he'd be clearing the one person he needs to get lynched tomorrow. Minor towntell - scum'd be prepared to do this just to survive to tomorrow, but it'd hurt them, and there's no underlying reason to reverse his suspicion of Incog at this point that I can see.

[Elmo]

Erk, kind of tight. Is anyone out there?

[Elmo]

I can't think of anything, no.

[Elmo]

Okay, PokerFace's SS claim. Now, he says that some people might want to lynch him on the basis of Lynch All Liars. I think that applies a lot of the time, but not

all

the time, personally; I'd say there are a small number of situations when it's perfectly good play for town to lie - if Glork lied about jailkeeping Scot to get him an extra investigation, for example, I'd say that's good play.

Now, figuring out if he's scum or town, you have to compare his best option as scum to that of town. I'd believe he's used this gambit before on IRC as town, but in a somewhat different situation. I think the idea in that situation works quite well: you'd say, hey, I'm a supersaint, and the scum would need to nightkill you to avoid having you around the endgame. The thing is, it'd work quite well there as scum, too, especially if you're known for pulling it; you'd say sorry, I'm pulling that thing I do as town, only the scum guessed it and didn't nightkill me. Now, forums and IRC are quite different; in particular, as he said, you'd tend to play many games with a small set of people over IRC, because (I think?) it's a smallish channel. Same-ish with scumchat. On forums, it's somewhat rare to know more than a handful of people in a given game, so people'd have less information about your meta tendencies. So I'd guess that it's harder to know that; I haven't managed to reread the game he linked, but I don't have an impression of him as a particularly gambit-y player here. In fact, the only player I think of that way is Adel, heh. I can't remember exactly what happened at the end of Dynamite Mafia, I remember he struck a light and thought about blowing someone up if I didn't. I don't think whatever happened falls into the same kind of category as what he did here. I think he just tried the gambit from IRC, intending to say he lied tomorrow, and hoping that people would buy the reasoning he'd present for the gambit.

---

If PF's not scum and I don't see tomorrow morning, then something weird is going on; I'd advise you to look back over the game and study every little detail, because I don't think Incog/Eldarad's reactions are distinct enough to get a strong enough read that you'd base a LyLo lynch on it. You've pretty much got only two players to examine and two weeks to do it, so take your time.

[Elmo]

Argh, you've got to be town posting a self-hammer, if you're not just fucking with me.

I'm not sure it entirely makes sense, even. It's 3am here

[Elmo]

Yeah. I was thinking basically either

1) Lying about gambit-y tendencies
or
2) Telling truth about gambit-y tendencies, but tried to reuse scum gambit in a situation where it wouldn't work.

Bah. Yeah, I'm wiped out after the day I've had and this, I'm goig to sleep for about a month now.

[Elmo]

Quite; I'd be interested in hearing the stated explanation, too. You seem to have moved very readily from pushing a case against Incognito for all of yesterday to firmly wanting to lynch me today, when yesterday you apparently agreed to follow through a plan which would relied upon me being pro-town. I'd note that I've been saying Incognito looks town to me, and it'd be much easier for ScumEldarad to try and get him to vote me than vice versa; I don't see any other basis for that change in your position. Or is that another

epiphany

?

What, specifically, is your opinion of PokerFace's play yesterday? (Beyond just 'horrible', I mean.)

[Elmo]

OMGUS!

Vote

:

eldarad

Why do you believe that it'd be much easier for a scum eldarad to try and get me to vote for you as opposed to you voting for me?

{...}

but do you not see a scum more likely saying something like "I told ya so" in this situation?

Because I've been saying fairly consistently that you're town, and you've mentioned previously that you've found it hard to get a read on me. It'd thought it'd still be tricky for him to angle for my lynch, but it's still a better chance than talking me into voting you, which basically wasn't going to happen. Possibly I'm biased by my read on you, but I think it looked fairly evident.

Is your town read of me in any way based on meta-gaming?

Yeah, I feel I have a pretty good meta read on you. I believe you even said somewhere here that there's a huge difference between your town and scum play.

Also, what did you think of the Erg0 slip that I mentioned during Day 2 and re-pointed out yesterday?

At the time: I.. still think you're town? Now: I know you're town, so it was probably a slip? I'm not sure what you're looking for, here.

I just get the feeling that an Elmo-town would have pushed the issue a bit more irregardless.

That lead directly

into

the Glork/Tar stuff, though. I voted Tar at the start of the day, Tar fakeclaimed, then Tar/Glork happened and Tar got lynched; Elmo happy. I'm not sure how I could have pushed the issue more than that.

Are you claiming that "being spectator-y" is something that is more likely to be found in your pro-town meta? Is this something that players have a tendency to call you out for when you're town? The only game that I've read of yours was Open 54 in which you were town and while reading that game, I never got the impression that you were spectator-y at all. Do you have a game in mind for me to read through?

Well, I've argued with people in the past about whether or not anyone can 'properly' know what they look like to other people, but as far as I know, it's null; it's more related to general interest/boredom. They don't seem to call me out for it much, although they probably should. (shrug)

Circa Open 54, I was pretty interested in mafia, and I've got progressively less motivated to do anything to the extent I'm probably taking an indefinite break when both my games are finished. As far as I know, it's related to interest rather than alignment, which aren't correlated. As to a specific game, PokerFace specifically mentioned Dynamite Stick Mafia, which is a good one. The one I meant at the time was the most recent one I died in, which was Packrats, where I basically did the minimum possible for day 1, and was picked up for 'cruising'. My play in Open 35: Big Love is pretty similar (iirc), up until literally less than 24 hours before deadline, where I posted a bunch of stuff. Fritz's Fest is pretty bad. Basically, look at my wiki page, everything at the top is likely to be Open 54-like, everything at the bottom much less so. I donno, I get bored easy.

Elmo, why did you wait so close until deadline during Day 5 to finally provide some kind of analysis?

I tend to leave stuff too close to deadline; I intended to do it earlier that day, but something came up that I had to attend to. (In Big Love, I only managed to post the first part of a Long Post before deadline hit, iirc; oops.)

Why did you never bother to hammer PokerFace when you were clearly reading the thread right around the deadline?

I figured that if I concluded someone else was more likely to be scum, then I could vote them, and someone could move their vote from PF to them if they were around. That, and Mizzy seemed skittish that he might actually be a SS, and didn't want either me or her to be the hammer; I considered it, but seemed pointless given that it had the same effect all told and woulda stopped anything interesting that might happen.

Probably the biggest thing that I can see that leads me to believe eldarad is town has to be his reaction to my plan of action.

Yeah, I've been thinking about that. What I keep coming back to is the abrupt shift from 881 to 883. 881 is basically just a flat "I'm not hammering PF today", which seems quite geared towards self-preservation; 883 is more in the vein of following the plan. Now, PokerFace had been making hints towards eldarad before, saying that he thought he should be the hammer vote; eldarad had probably picked up on it, and had more time to think about what was going on that the timestamps indicate. I know I'd be wondering why PF was making those comments, especially when he's making overtures towards me placing the hammer. In 883, eldarad is willing to go along with the plan - as long as we get to tomorrow. He correctly observes that if he's town, then he shouldn't be hammering today, because we'd lose.

See, the mafia have more info than us; they'd be better able to reason about the setup. If eldarad's a goon or a minor power role, then a full governor, a sane cop, a jailkeeper, and a super-saint vs. a goon, a framer, and him probably looks ridiculous to him. It would take him about three minutes to see that it's heavily stacked against the mafia, and something's wrong with that picture. I think what happened is that he figured out PF had to be lying, either in those 16 minutes, or before when he picked up on PF's hints about what he'd claim later. In fact, PokerFace correctly notes that while he's expressed suspicion of you all day, he's never voted for you - until 881. I think 881 is a startled reaction, where he goes into survival mode: he states clearly that he's not hammering PokerFace, and immediately tries to push a case on someone else to be the hammer vote. Then, by post 883, he's realised that not only is PokerFace lying and who hammers doesn't matter, but that he can exploit this to near-win the game; get someone else lynched today, then be perfectly willing to hammer PokerFace tomorrow. Heck, if someone votes PF tomorrow before PF can reveal he's lying, he might flat-out win it; certainly, he's in a good position when PokerFace has to say "uh, don't lynch me, I'm not really a supersaint!". That's gotta be one of the easiest cases to push in existence.

Well my theme name is

Obnoxious Drunk

. You know, that guy at the bar who always cops a feel from the dancers and picks a fight with another patron every time he is there. That's me. My unruly nature allows me to take another player out of club with me. And the person that comes with me is the hammer dropper. That's why I want elderad to drop the hammer or be the final vote on my wagon, after all only 2 votes would be needed for half majority at deadlines.

There's also the fact that his flavour doesn't make that much sense, in retrospect - having someone thrown out of the club doesn't cause them to die! I didn't think a mafioso would claim SS, because it almost guarantees you'll be lynched, so I didn't analyse it, but if I was a mafioso studying it like my life depended on it, I'd be certain to pick it up.

The reason eldarad went along with the plan was that he knew full well PokerFace was lying.

---

In part, precisely because this Day seems to have been set up so as to limit our (ie my and Incog's) actions, made me wonder

why

the Day was framed in those terms.

How, exactly, has this day been set up? I don't understand how I'm supposed to have 'limited your actions' in some mysterious, unspecified way.

Pre-PokerFace, I had you nailed as scum as part of an Erg0 pairing. Your reaction to the claim was pro-town. Elmo only got excited about the claim when he got to do some maths about it.

Unless I'm mistaken, my first post after his claim was proving that your proposed plan worked. "Only got excited about it" seems to imply that I was posting merrily about some other topic, trying to avoid the topic of PokerFace. When I checked the thread, I did the most important thing at the time: demonstrate that the plan we were going to base the game on was, in fact, sound. Actually, there's no need for me to do anything other than that, if PokerFace is telling the truth. You seem to contrast Incognito's reaction to mine; in what respect do you assert my reaction was not pro-town?

Do you regard yourself as "cleared"?

Yeah, I think it's highly unlikely that both mafia members would bus one of their own day one, especially with the presence of a framer indicating that there's likely a cop about. Bussing tends to work best when there's a low chance of something like a cop getting a guilty on the busser. Also, Tar seemed to push his pseudocase on me in an entirely needless way; both he and Erg0 could have happily hopped onto cow's wagon, for example.

It just seems like Elmo has been skating through the game as an 'innocent' without anyone questioning why he is seen in that light, or else other people have demanded more immediate attention and Elmo has just quietly sailed through.

That's because no-one's been suspicious of me, for good reason. You basically saying, "hey, no-one's been suspicious of Elmo, he's probably scum!" without giving any reasoning why I'm likely to be scum.

Specifically, the gambit PokerFace ran was pretty useless in this instance - scum would refuse to hammer because it would result in an autoloss, town would also refuse to hammer because it would result in an autoloss. So it was impossible to determine someone's alignment by seeing how they reacted to the demand to hammer.

This ignores the possibility that Mizzy lives through the night. Why is that?

~

Still have yet to see something I'd consider a plausible case against me. It's late again, hope I'm making sense; I'll post more tomorrow.

[Elmo]

Not a lot left to say. gg

[Elmo]

Thanks for modding, OGML.

Perhaps this'll strike you as sour grapes, but it's not, I was saying exactly the same around day 5; pretty bad (not fun) game from my point of view. What I said in 976 was true, I'm just not very interested in mafia, and put zero effort in; got ill immediately after replacing in, got 'lynched' for largely ridiculous reasons (Tar was wrong if I'm understanding him, PokerFace was wrong, I think Patrick was mostly wrong), pardoned for reasons passing understanding (why would you ever pardon someone d1?). Then the town decided I was confirmed innocent for no particular reason, and I sat on my ass doing nothing, which bored me to tears. Then PokerFace pulled his stunt, and any idiot could have seen Incog/Eldarad were town, and I had no way to win. (Maybe killing Incognito would work, I dunno. Don't think Mizzy would have bought it.)

So, basically, the game was 99% staggeringly boring and, yet again, my play had no effect on the outcome. The latest in a long series of games I wouldn't have played in retrospect; glad it's over. I was actually wishing the town would play better around day 4/5, so I would at least have something to do. (shrug)

Incognito read my meta correctly at the end; I don't think I've ever bothered to try and play in line with my pro-town meta. I figured (correctly) that I could put zero effort in, because of the town's bizarre attitude towards me. Honestly, it seems kind of silly; there are an abundance of 'normal' tells spread throughout the game if anyone'd bother to look for them. I'm pretty sure I dropped at least two jeep tells. I don't think Patrick was quite right day 1, although it's hard to tell; I suppose what complicates it is that my play as town would probably have gotten me lynched day 1. I still had some interest circa Dynamite Mafia, which has since dropped to near-zero; I'd probably tell you all to bugger off and leave me alone, or get replaced.

Scot was a good cop. I should've killed him instead of Ether, but I got ill, and was unconscious for 48 hours after discussing with Erg0. Went to check that he'd sent something in, found a "guys, night actions!!" PM from OGML, freaked, and sent the first name that came into my head before crawling back into bed. His first post, it was obvious he had a guilty on Erg0. That's luck for you.

What the hell was Ether's coded messages thing about?

Huh. I guess you're right, in that it is the only thing that differentiated me (and Incog) from Elmo.

Correct. If he hadn't have done that, you'd have almost certainly lost. (shrug)

[Elmo]

I was onto you for a good portion of Day 1 and even Day 2 when Glork and others were considering you town. I repeatedly kept questioning Glork about his town read of you because you just didn't seem very town to me at all.

a) 'cuz you were wrong about Glork/Tar. That mostly disappeared when Tar flipped scum, which is the point at which I meant people starting treating me as confirmed FNAR.
b) I only remember you saying I was something like "uncharacteristically useless" day 1, which isn't a tell, far as I know. I don't mean you'd have thought I was town when I wasn't, I mean you'd read me as scum (or "didn't seem very town") regardless of my alignment. I don't think you or PokerFace (or Patrick, for that matter) had anything concrete. (shrug)

[Elmo]

Overall though, after I was lynched and my head was clearer, it was obvious Elmo was scum. That's the conclusion I cam to just before day 6 started. Of all people Elmo took the time to analize Incog vs Elderad during that day, when he himself significantly thought I was scum. Why do the extra effort if you've already done the job? Its because the job wasn't done he knew the game was continuing.

Ding ding ding.

After All Why would Erg0 vote Elmo over Cow on day 1? Did he not say Cow was more suspicious.

{...}

Obv over distancing.

Ding ding ding.

For what it's worth, I'm not inclined to compare the skill levels of IRC and forum players; they're hardly mutually exclusive, for starters. In particular, the three IRC players I know of here (Shanba, Xyl, and PokerFace) are (imo) all decidedly above average, so I'm not convinced there's any basis to say it worked purely in IRC because of the skill level. I certainly think the immediacy of it works better over IRC.. I would probably have figured it out. I did briefly wonder how exactly we were supposed to win with that setup, but shrugged my shoulders and did what I would as town; I'd probably have figured it out if I'd thought about it. Oddly enough, the case I made against Eldarad is roughly what I'd have done if I were scum in his position, hmm? Wonder if I'd have won.

Always decide for yourself. Make your own decision. You can't rely on others for if you are too trusting you will get burned.

Correct. I basically never rely on other people, and I've yet to suffer for it; in fact, I have difficulty finding a time when I've done it that it's helped me.

Overall the game was fun for me and I feel I helped out some despite whatever your views of my actions may say. I am proud of myself always. If you want to criticize me, please do. I am open to others opinions.

I can't think of any. It was close to perfect. Elderad appears to have retracted his opinion. Considering it near won the game for the town, I'd be surprised if anyone had a bad word to say

Congrats and well played, PokerFace. I wonder if it'd be appropriate for eldarad to change his sig?