Mini #618 - Farside of the moon - over!

[icemanE]

/confirm

[icemanE]

vote: Light

... for obvious reasons (if you've seen Death Note).

Oh wait, if we're going by the Death Note formula I'd have to do something like:

unvote

I'm now 80% sure you're Kira.

vote: Light

...and so on until I die.

[icemanE]

Beyond.... are you sure you're in this game? Or have you replaced and we haven't been notified yet?

[icemanE]

unvote

Yes, the claim seems very off to me, unnecessary of course, but perhaps this is his playstyle.

A couple of questions:

1. Dcorbe - how does he breadcrumb that he's mafia? I need that to be explained further, perhaps I missed it.

2. Dok - Are you just a generally excited, overly happy person, or are you trying to brush aside the serious parts of this game? I.e.:

Jesus Christ guys, way to not have a sense of humor. I forgot that Mafia is SRS BSNSS.

Holding on for you to over interpret my post Smile You can do it, lovable scamps.

I think the discussion about how many scum are in this game is all null - yes, there's a general formula to avoid imbalance in a game and I'm guessing the mod followed it in order to, you know, balance the game, so dcorbe's is an overreaction to Dok's guess that there are 3. Dok overstates the scumminess of dcorbe's reaction, though, when he says

That was one of the scummiest posts I've ever read.

That's all for now. I would consider voting for Dok in order to bandwagon for a claim, but we've already got one, so I'll hold off until I get a stronger notion.

[icemanE]

The mere suggestion that he may know how many mafia are present in this setup (which is a closed setup, BTW) is breadcrumming.

Ah, OK, I see what you're saying now.

I have a good reason to be acting the way I am right now and I'll explain it later.

Ah, OK, I... think I see what you're saying now? Or I guess I'll see what you're saying... later.

[icemanE]

You've only got 3 votes Dok.

[icemanE]

In the end what Gatekeeper is saying DOES make sense - thinning out the ranks and reducing risk percentages by lynching DOES help the town. Additionally, Dok has been scummy enough to warrant a lynch, and if he will continue to be a distraction, as Gate says, it's win-win.

I'm not sure how I'm tied to Dok, if he turns up scum, Cephir. I think his chance of being scum is equal to the chance that he has a very strange idea about how mafia works - that somehow you aren't supposed to lynch because it isn't fun. Dok, that's how the game works man.

vote: Dok

[icemanE]

Also, yeah, I still don't understand the "breadcrumbing". Most often people breadcrumb when they're a protown power role as a way of trying to reveal info without claiming. I don't see how it would be at all advantageous to breadcrumb as scum, so I don't buy that part of the argument.

[icemanE]

Also, yeah, I still don't understand the "breadcrumbing". Most often people breadcrumb when they're a protown power role as a way of trying to reveal info without claiming. I don't see how it would be at all advantageous to breadcrumb as scum, so I don't buy that part of the argument.

It's not advantageous to breadcrum as scum and that's sort of the point.

Whether it's a weak tell or a strong tell is also an irrelevant point. The point of the vote was to try and get a pressure wagon going on him and it worked because now he's dropping scum tells.

True.

[icemanE]

he says he will be Mafia bait (or whatever the exact words was...) for the rest of the game.

He said mafia-proof - I believe what he meant by this is that the mafia won't night kill him because he's suspicious. So one of his reasons we shouldn't lynch him is: Because the mafia won't kill him. It doesn't add up - it's not valid reason, as if he's scum, he'll obviously survive the night anyway.

Be absolutely convinced who you are voting for is scum.

I don't entirely agree. Your vote is a tool. You can use it to do things like force scum tells through pressure, which is what I was initially doing with my vote on Dok. Now, however, I'm convinced he's mafia, and my vote will stay on him. I think you can use your vote however you want to, it's your only power as a towine and you can get a lot more done with it than just add a number to the count.

[icemanE]

I like how everyone is a Machiavellian mastermind that can throw votes around, as long as no one else votes.

I'm not sure I understand this. In fact I'm sure I don't.

[icemanE]

Man, I just don't understand you Dok, not one bit.

[icemanE]

Dok - why did you join if you aren't going to play? It's almost like you want to be lynched... is it possible this setup has a jester?

[icemanE]

The problem I have with a StangerCoug lynch today is that we already have a claim from Dok. At the very worst, if Dok's lynch pans out poorly for the town, we will be losing a townie. It seems a safe bet to lynch him today - for one, he's played a very scummy game so far, and he's already claimed, so we know we won't be losing a power role even in the very worst scenario. I don't like forcing more claims than necessary on day one - it makes things easy for the scum.

That being said, I do agree that Strange has been more or less equally as scummy as Dok. If the general attitude of the town forces him to claim, and it's unsatisfying, I'll lynch him today, but I'd prefer Dok.

[icemanE]

Oh, I forgot to mention that I especially agree with the ridiculousness of StrangerCoug's particular case against Dok - this is what makes StrangerCoug look scummy, primarily:

We're not saying you claimed Mafia. We're saying that you claimed town after breadcrumbing Mafia and (according to dcorbe—I wouldn't have caught it) soft-claiming a power role. Remember that I officially voted you for OMGUS voting dcorbe, but that's not the only reason why you're suspicious to me.

Give me three good reasons why you shouldn't be lynched for posts 42 and 47.

Firstly, the case itself is very, very weak and opportunistic. Secondly, asking for THREE reasons why we shouldn't lynch him for two posts that he made is really pushing Dok into a corner that he can't possibly answer his way out of - it's too much.

[icemanE]

Out of curiosity, if you're so sure that both Dok and Coug are safe bets for lynches, then why would we have anything to risk by pushing multiple wagons?

Let's put it this way - say, in an alternate universe, Dok were cop or doc or some other important power role. I would have no idea how to read him - he's a player the likes of which I've never run into before. The same could be for StrangerCoug - he might just have a truly funky playstyle. On both counts I would tend to believe their posts indicate scum instead of strange playstyle, I can't be 100% sure yet. I AM 100% sure that, in lynching Dok, we won't force a claim out of StrangerCoug, who may or may not just have a weird playstyle. It's just an issue of certainties.

I'm definitely for running wagons on D1 because it gives us useful information to go on for D2. Based on the last couple of games I've been in I'm almost to the point were I think wagoning people is the only way to have a productive D1.

That's a good point, but are you not satisfied with the results gleaned from the Dok bandwagon?

[icemanE]

It has been brought up that Dokter Per and I are about equally scummy.

Since the town seems to agree with both myself (and Stranger, oddly ^) on this one, I guess it's time for a claim.

unvote - vote: StrangerCoug

[icemanE]

If I am to be lynched, I want to be lynched informed of why I got voted so I can learn from my mistakes for next time. I learn nothing for the future if the votes on me are not explained.

There's a good amount of explanation for most of the votes.

Please note that "I refuse to claim until" does not mean "I refuse to claim period".

You really should claim, it's the best way to save yourself and help the town win.


That being said I believe StrangerCoug is scum based on his reaction to being put at L-1. He gives no reasons for not claiming (like, if I claim it'll be bad for the town) and instead just wants to learn from his mistakes (which is reasonable, but not for town - it makes sense for scum to say that).

[icemanE]

First off I have to say that dcorbe's final post, that poem, was terrifying.

How much are we to read into the mod's descriptions of the kills?

You look and first you see OhGodMyLife in his room. He was shot in the back in his sleep. This is just like the mayor. The same cowards must be responsible.

^ Clearly the scum's kill, if we're to trust the last sentence. There's a huge difference between the above description and this:

Your next search brings you to dcorbe's room. Some of you cringe at the sight you see. Dcorbe's eyes are open in fear and his throat was slashed. Their was great violence with this kill. This was not a normal death

I think OGML is a smart enough player to not shoot on night one as vigilante. It sounds like we might have both scum and a Serial Killer on our hands. Unless I'm reading too far into the mod's post.

vote: Cephir

for this:

I think it's safe to say it; StrangerCoug, claim or die.

The fact that we managed to move this wagon over is so awesome.

I'm thinking Dok - Ceph at least for scum at the moment. In terms of potential SKs, if one exists, I'll have to take a little time and look back.

[icemanE]

However, I think DP is a good lynch today as I said and his death will provide us with plenty of information on who to go after next.

What info do you think we'll get? Dcorbe is dead and flipped town - I thought a Dok lynch would give us info on Dcorbe, but I don't see what we'll get out of it today.

[icemanE]

Ugh, having second thoughts about DP again and the way Gatekeeper and RS hopped on seems scummy to me. And like Light said, that was just too fast.

Unvote

for now.

Yup, I agree. I'm not feeling too good about Gatekeeper currently. My suspicion of Ceph is lowered - and I doubt he and Dok are scum partners, my vote on Ceph was to make sure of that. I think Dok just plays this game incredibly strangely.

unvote - vote: Gatekeeper

[icemanE]

Icemane, why are you voting Gatekeeper...?

Ah, oops. I thought he was the one who said this:

I think DP might be our best bet for today, and probably the only thats gonna happen. I was as behind it as most others, but the quickness to the shift on SC stinks.

^ He's using a point that equally applicable to himself against Dok.

The post I responded to confused me:

Ugh, having second thoughts about DP again and the way Gatekeeper and RS hopped on seems scummy to me.

I just did a reread of Gatekeeper since I had a minute and I didn't notice anything very suspicious.

unvote - vote: RS

[icemanE]

Fixed that for you, jerk. You are a violent, militant little guy, scummier than the moon.

Every vote I give will be read as scum tell, so I won't even bother.

This statement sucks. Please help us instead of just conceding over and over again Dok. The fact that you wig out so much under pressure is very suspicious. I still think we should lynch RS today but I feel like Dok would be a good person to look at again tomorrow, the more I think about it.

[icemanE]

I apologize for being inactive, I've got some time for a post now.

Also, I highly doubt DP is actually an experienced player =/

I agree, he genuinely seems to be new to the game. I see no reason to suspect he's an experienced player taking us for a ride, I think he'd be more obvious if that were the case. I'm not sure of his alignment at this stage, but I wouldn't advocate a Dok lynch today, from what I've seen.

Obviously I have to address this:

Vote: IcemanE

I appreciate the compliment (sounds weird in this context, I know), but your points against me essentially add up to me being protown, so I'm not sure how to argue them - I've been protown, so I suppose I agree. "Too protown" seems to be the accusation you make, which I could understand in a setup with strange rules (for example, another game I'm playing in with two scumteams) but I don't feel I should stop being protown to dodge suspicion.

his playstyle during this entire game has been that of keeping it safe, following town consensus and anything else to remain active and under the radar without being too suspiciously under the radar as to warrant a scummy lurk.

I have to say, though, that as a member of the town it IS a good idea to attempt to be protown while simultaneously acting as least scummy as possible.

We have a deadline of Monday, so anyone have a suggestion for a lynch?

I am sticking to RS/LG today. Lord has certainly done better than his predecessor but I haven't seen enough to warrant a withdrawal of my vote.

I'm not entirely sure who to vote, but if we could have some contribution from say half the people in the game we might get something done today.

I apologize for not contributing recently, I've been busy.

[icemanE]

Post 218 explains my reason.

[icemanE]

Iceman quick question: After going through Day 2 posts, it seems that you change your vote quite a lot. More precisely you've changed it three times during this day already. Could you explain that?

Voted gatekeeper by mistake, changed it to RS.

Ice, care to make a case on RS/LG so LG can try to defend himself, and so I see what you are talking about?

If I find the time I can, sure.

[icemanE]

I find it very strange to lynch one person to see how you feel about another person. It feels to me like he's setting it up so that if DP turns up scum he can link SC to him and get a mislynch tomorrow.

But... if Cephir were scum, he'd know DP was scum. Do you really think he'd sacrifice one of his buddies just to get a mislynch.

I'm not ruling out that Cephir or DP are scum - but elvis' case on Cephir is fairly poor...

So far... doktor perr was so scummy I don't know why you guys didn't lynch him. Naming the number of scum in a game is almost always a tell. I have seen it many times. Cephrir did it in crubtown mini. Yosarian did it in dynamite mafia. It's a scum slip. Also, DP did softclaim cop and then back off it and claim vanilla which is totally the uber scummy move. And claiming at 2 votes is a tell too, although it's possible that's just a newbie mistake. Although I tend to take it as newbscum mistake than newbtown.

This is kind of a good point though.

Also, I agreed with everything dcorbe was saying, so i cry that he is dead. Sad

Buddying up with a dead - and therefore proven - townie. I don't like that much.

[icemanE]

Do you think scum would try to buddy to a dead townie? WTF is that gonna do for them? Obviously dcorbe is dead so he's not going to be doing anything for anyone.

I'm saying dcorbe is dead. Everyone knows he's a townie now. You're agreeing with the ideas of a proven townie - as such, dcorbe's ideas = protown (whether or not they actually were is debatable), and that functions to make you look protown. Buddying up is scummy. Of course dcorbe isn't going to actively DO anything for you anymore, but he's still PROVEN to be a townie. Obviously, agreeing with protown ideas is not scummy in theory or even in practice - but framing them through someone who is dead and therefore cannot agree or disagree with your agreeing with him, and the fact that his agreeing with ideas automatically looks good because he was a townie, is scummy. See what I'm saying?

[icemanE]

EBWOP: "...and the fact that *agreeing with his ideas*..."

[icemanE]

I've seen enough evidence. It's go time.

vote: Doktor Per

Thats lynch-1 Dok. I think its time to claim or die.

Already did that? What do you want me to do, claim again?

Your post reeks of inconfidence and desire to sound as town as possible. What do you have to hide, thinktank? Never mind that. I expected this somewhat to happen, as there was no good consensus on anyone so everything will be reverted back to day one "he made joke votes and assumption about the town-mafia ratio and then said that he was a vanilla townie. Therefore he must be scum!" What this is, is a case of the Wine in front of me. Someone must be scum/SK/whatever so you go out of your way to over read and interprit everything. You make assumptions, since you have little else to go on. And this leads you into circles and circles and circles of stupid discussion about some guy being funny, this guy not being apparent enough or this vote phase going through too quickly. You have all shown a part of this mindset playing, you marvelous Machiavellian Masterminds. Truth is, all you say and do is for naught since anyone who is remotely intelligent and can take ten minutes away from his initial response can ultimately utterly and completely devestate this game by just thinking and doing minimal planning.

I however decided to be fair and come out of whack.

Have fun lynching more town.

I don't get the feeling that Dok is scum. Tomorrow is our deadline for deciding on a lynch. It appears that the town has decided upon Dok. It's unfortunate that we're being rushed into it - I thought the deadline being pushed back once was enough, and I'm not going to ask for an extension, but it appears we could have used more time.

I really don't like Light's last post - it sounds like rolefishing. I am going to try to look into Light's posts before the lynch deadline hits, but I may not have time.

I'm going to leave my vote on LG for now. I recall being asked for a case on him - I'll do a reread on LG as well to make sure I'm still confident in my vote on him, and to explain my vote.

[icemanE]

unvote

In reviewing the decision I made on RS (now LG) it appears I was swayed too much by StrangerCoug's comments - Stranger was very suspicious of RS, so the day after we lynched Stranger and he turned up town, I immediately jumped on RS without much thought. Honestly though, after a thorough reread, RS was not only protown yesterday, but he also acted quite similar to myself.

Light, thank you for the clarification, that helps.

I feel that attempting to find and kill the

SK

today is our best bet, to prevent the situations you describe above - things will be much, much easier for us if we only have one kill tonight instead of two. However, hitting scum of either variety is obviously a good thing, and rooting out the SK is more difficult than nailing a mafia - not to mention that we're essentially out of time.

I will hopefully be able to return and vote tomorrow before the deadline - if Dok is what the town decides is the right play, and dok turns up town, I will look very closely at those on his wagon tomorrow. I get a very strong feeling that Dok is noobtown from his response to pressure - I can tell you that if I were put under any kind of pressure in my first game my first instinct would be to claim as well. So I throw that out as a scumtell - I agreed with Elvis that it's strange we didn't lynch Dok yesterday, but only because it looked like that was the way it was going to go, and we suddenly shifted gears - I'm going to try to look back at that shift, hopefully before deadline. I definitely want to have a vote in by then if at all possible.

[icemanE]

Just one kill last night. Strange. Sounds like it must have been the SK, judging by the mod's description. Well, time for a reread, hopefully tonight.

[icemanE]

After a full reread I find Cephir most suspicious of the remaining players.

The first thing that caught my eye was that he wanted to lynch DP in order to make up his mind about Stranger. That was very strange - it's not at all worth it for the town to sacrifice a potential ally just to help them decide on whether or not another player is scummy. This was the reason he provided for putting the L-1 vote on Dok.

However, when OGML challenged his logic, Cephir withdrew his previous statement:

I wouldn't use the word "sacrifice". I do think DP is scum. If a StrangerCoug lynch seems likely to happen today, I'd be on board with that. I'd just be more sure about him if DP died first and was scum. But now that I think about it, even if he were town, I'd still have StrangerCoug at the top of my suspect list.

It seemed to me like a DP lynch was inevitable today, but perhaps it isn't. I suppose if he comes up scum, my extra little thing about him will then apply to DP so it doesn't really matter. What the heck,let's give it a shot.

Unvote, Vote StrangerCoug

When Stranger flips town at the end of the day, Cephir immediatly jumps back onto Dok:

As of now I think DP is the play, but I'll have to review people, and look at why the scum might have killed who they did, much as speculation on that often doesn't go anywhere good.

He made the easy play at the start of the second day - honestly I think Dok' was a very oppurtunistic lynch - the case on him was not strong enough to warrant a lynch, in my opinion.

However, I think DP is a good lynch today as I said and his death will provide us with plenty of information on who to go after next.

He is still pushing Dok's lynch as a source of information even after SC, previously the main reason that Ceph wanted to lynch Dok, has died and flipped town. When I asked him what information we would get from a Dok lynch at this point in the game, he said:

Every player in this game has had some sort of reaction to that wagon, and we'd get a lot of info based on who pushed the wagon, who stretched too far defending him, etc. A lot of the game has been talking about that wagon, and we can't draw many conclusions from, like, 5 pages of the thread unless we know his alignment.

Initially this sounds like a valid point, and it is, but the thing about it is that Ceph was one of the players that pushed hardest for Dok's lynch - and then a few posts later, after he's made a post about how much info we'd gain from a Dok lynch on players who pushed the wagon, a couple more players follow him and get on the wagon - namely, Gatekeeper and RS. Ceph then unvotes Dok. The unvote looks to me like someone trying to seem blameless if Dok turns up town by being the good guy at the last minute. He pushed for Dok's lynch several times, but right when it was about to happen, he jumped off the wagon. That's quite fishy to me.

Oh, sarcasm. Nevermind then. Also, stop reading everything I do as scummy when it could just as easily not be. I hate it when people do this. Sometimes someone just gets it in their head that X is scum, and then everything X does starts having an ulterior motive. So, yeah.

The above defense definitely looks like a frustrated scum defense to me. When a case is presented against him, Ceph claims the presenter, in this case Light-kun, has tunnel-vision.

LG beings up this point against Ceph, which is a good one:

Cephrir, you specifically said you don't want anyone lynched other than DP, and also say that you need DP lynched before you could decide about SC. Then you proceeded to push the SC lynch.

To which Ceph responds:

That's because I realized that the reverse applied as well. Lynching SC would tell me just as much about DP as vice versa.

The problem with this defense is that lynching someone for information on another player is still not a good reason for voting them, regardless of whom you think you're getting info on. Additionally, even after Stranger flipped town, Ceph was still after a Dok lynch.

Ceph says this, which I agree with, and ironically applies to Ceph, as well as the quickwagon voters he mentions in the rest of the post:

The entire DP wagon today seems awful to me, I think the scum are trying to get a lynch on him soon because he's fading as a general suspect, if you know what I mean, and it seems like if he doesn't get lynched soon it might never happen.

If you look at Ceph's posts overall you'll notice that he's

very

reluctant to express any hard, solid accusations, as illustrated in this post:

I wouldn't say Dok's case adds up to "Iceman is protown" but it doesn't make him scum. I am really not sure if I actually want to lynch RS/LG today, but I think so.

He tiptoes around issues and sits on the fence, trying to make it seem as if he

could

be on either side.

I agree with Elvis' post 282 and suggest you all look at it for further reasons to vote Cephir.

vote: Cephir

[icemanE]

you're not the one player I'm pretty certain is town)

Just a question for the two players who have said they're "pretty sure one player is town" - which player is that, and why are you reluctant to say which?

At worst, it might just out a Doc, which would be really bad right now as if we mislynch Doc protection + SK kill might be our only hope (assuming the game doesn't automatically end).

This is why I disagree with a massclaim. And Ceph, considering the strength of the reason you give for a massclaim being a bad idea - essentially, that it would destroy our only hope of victory - why do you still want one?

[icemanE]

Cephir's reasoning for putting Greasy Spot at the top of his town list is poor. He has not said anything to convince me I'm wrong about his being scum, and as such I believe he should be lynched. I'm sure he's scum, and I doubt he is the SK considering his recent comments on Greasy, which just don't add up, and we need to lynch a mafia today, not the SK, if we want to win. I think he is our best chance for a successful lynch today.

Additionally, Cephir has several times used wifom to defend his actions - the most recent being this:

Firstly, I don't see how GS would be scum with me. That'd be some pretty obvious buddying up and bad scum play. I also just listed him as my most protown, which would also be awful.

This is the kind of stuff that you look back on after the game is finished and say, wow, he told us up front, we're idiots. I think it's clear he should be lynched.

[icemanE]

My response to 336:

Either one of the two turning up town would make the whole thing a null-tell anyway.

Why then did you continue to pursue Dok on Day 2? SC turned up town.

That wasn't accompanied by a vote, so it's not "jumping onto" him.

This fits in with what I said about not dedicating yourself to one side or the other. If you think someone's the play, you vote for them. Your voting patterns on Dok, which I mentioned before, were very wishy-washy.

Yes, his lynch would have and did provide a lot of info.

Earlier in the post you said that SC's turning up town made it a null-tell. What info did we gain?

[icemanE]

@ Ceph - My post 340 addresses the other points you raise in 336 that I felt were necessary to refute.

[icemanE]

Light-kun is now confirmed town unless there are only 2 mafia.

Why is he confirmed town? He's voting for the person you view as most likely town - I don't see the connection.

[icemanE]

I don't buy the claim. I have a good feeling I know who the scum are - Ceph I'm sure is one - but I don't want to talk about my idea on the other(s) until tomorrow. We've caught one though, time to hammer. I don't think Ceph is the SK anymore (that was my initial notion), but I also realized that in order to have any chance of winning we have to lynch a mafia today and not the SK anyways, so it works out to our advantage.

[icemanE]

Damn, we lynched the SK instead of a scum. Now I feel foolish.

[icemanE]

Alright Alright!

[icemanE]

I knew immediately at the start of Day 3 that Ceph was the SK - we tried to kill him last night, that's why there was only one kill. If not for that, I probably would have thought LG was the SK. Lucky guess on our part.

Thinktank - why did you put off hammering for so long?

[icemanE]

Also it turned out that Dok was 100% correct in his suspicion of me, lol.

[icemanE]

Good game scums. What made you kill me?

Think had a hunch you were a pro-town power role, since you were protown but also a tad lurky. He was right on.