Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[cicero]

Vote Shanba

because no one else has yet and this is an unforgivable lack of attention for someone who is clearly so win.

Also, read the sig. I'm around but sightseeing so posts will be low for the first few days. Then I'll be up to my usual volume.

[cicero]

[cicero: please direct your efforts towards lynching cicero.

Devastating news, Simmy. Your bandwagon isn't right. I am town. And I suppose I could vote you for voting me with no reason, but the truth is being a cheeky bugger early in the game is probably a town tell. Time'll tell though. Why are you being a cheeky bugger? I don't like mosquitos when I'm at the beach. Know what I'm sayin'?

[cicero]

The biggest problem with that post to me is he is way to quick to post "is probably a town tell".

I don't see it as a tell to either side Cicero, please explain why you find this a town tell (and be aware, a bad answer will land my vote on you)?

Oh it will, will it?

Would it have been better to vote him? What do you think? Why do you see it as neutral? Scum are more likely to want to float under the radar. So doing something cheeky and frivolous, like an annoying "let's lynch cicero har har har" is more likely to come from a townie than a scum. It's a very weak town tell. If you think it's scummy for me to think that then by all means, please join the wagon. Be warned, however, that I think you thinking my opinion is scummy is in fact scummy so voting me will result in me voting you. Not OMGUS, but because I will disapprove of your vote on a townie for not immediately jumping on someone with a vote that is more likely annoying than scummy.

[cicero]

unvote, vote:cicero

Hmm, opportunistically jumping third on a wagon that admittedly has no good reason behind it. I'll go for that.

Unvote. Vote Adel

[cicero]

Is there not scum benefit in starting a wagon on someone like this under the premise of a joke?

Well if there is you should vote Simenon.

Bad threat. Terrrible in fact. Is my jumping on you worse than Adel's?

No. Adel's is worse. Hence my vote. I didnt know about her vote when I did my last post.

I don't know you're a townie, do I? I have no evidence to that point. Nor can you expect me to have any. I dislike this constant exclamation that you are townie like this.

Actually me calling myself a townie is something of a huge town tell for me , but really I just meant a player there.

I'm not at 4 votes. I will be profoundly amused if this wagon goes through to completion.

[cicero]

EDWOP: Not = Now

[cicero]

It began as a joke, yes, but why do you assume that just because I was continuing to be tongue-in-cheek, it wasn't at all serious? For me at least, it stopped becomming a joke rather early. And yes, I do believe there is a difference between humorous explanations and a joke.

Currently, cicero seems to be pretty dense, especially the comments in his last post.

unvote, vote:cicero

Such a good vote.

Im sorry Simenon, you'll need to actually provide reasons now.

1. It began as a joke, what caused it to become serious? Please reference a post and explain your logic. The serious part divorced from the humour. Why am I scum?

2. What exactly do you find dense in my last post? You cant just assert that. Please educate me.

[cicero]

Is there not scum benefit in starting a wagon on someone like this under the premise of a joke?

Well if there is you should vote Simenon.

I don't believe it IS a scumtell. I believe its a nulltell.

So you wont vote him for it and I wont vote him for it. Whats the problem? What are you accusing me of exactly? Syntax? Am I simenon's scumbuddy? Or do you think I'm just scared of him? What's my scum motivation, Oman? I'm really very curious to know.

[cicero]

why won't just take your lynch quietly and proudly like a man who wears pants?

Let's get this out of the way early on kids. I'm here to play mafia. I'm not your playtoy. If you want to play Cicero is the Pinata because you think it'll be fun, get it over with quick so I can go back to my vacation. If you want to scumhunt lets get at it. But this isnt a scumchat game and I'm not Xyzzy . So grow up and piss off. Capiche?

[cicero]

why you gots to go and spoil me fun likes that?

you said that Simenon is more likely to be town than scum, and I happen to think that you would be more likely to say that if you are scum than if you are town. For a town player getting caught out in a random early day 1 wagon is annoying, for a scum player it can be deadly.

Well, I'm currently annoyed. That should tell you something.

I'm not exactly sure of the logic in your last sentence. Im probably dense like Simenon says. Explain it to me. I'm more than happy to hear arguments for why I'm wrong and Simenon is scum because he isnt very popular with my smug dense self right now. My logic is simple. Town is more likely to feel free to be flippant. Sim was flippant. I could definitely be wrong though. Sim is a smart guy and someone I havent played with before so I have no idea of his meta. What know you of him?

[cicero]

People's logic here is interesting. By all means disagree with me about it being a weak town tell. Call it a null tell. But we were on the same basic wavelength. Nothing to vote Simenon over. Just as me saying it is a weak town tell is nothing to vote me over, Oman. Unfortunately because I was the player at issue with his chosen first bandwagon it demanded some sort of response from me. I'm not sure what the magic response was supposed to have been but the fact is I found him annoying and not scummy. The way he went about it felt like townie trying to be flippant playing silly bugger, and thereby promote conversation, which, yes, I feel is something more often engaged in by townies because anything can happen in the early game and most scum will tend towards self preservationism and try to stay out of the early controversies. Not all. Of course scum can WIFOM it. But that's the starting premise of the WIFOM. Scum will do this UNLESS they plan to confound expectations. Don't like my opinion, fine. But think Cicero would only hold that opinion as scum? You are quite incorrect as shall become apparent at some near or later point in the future.

you said that Simenon is more likely to be town than scum, and I happen to think that you would be more likely to say that if you are scum than if you are town. For a town player getting caught out in a random early day 1 wagon is annoying, for a scum player it can be deadly.

This is a thought you are happening to have that lacks foundation. It's just my opinion. It's a weak town tell. Anyone else wants to say WIFOM null tell, fine, but you're missing the point. The point was that that action seemed like Simenon being a pest and I wasnt going to vote him for it. That didnt mean I was absolving him for the game or that I didnt think scum could do something townie. Scum do townie things all the time in every game. But so do townies. So I wait to see something scummy before I vote a person.

The rest of your logic is quite tortured though. It presumes some motivation of scum to absolve townie Simenon. The most obvious logical reason to absolve Simenon would be if he was my scumbuddy. Good scum really shouldnt make it harder for themselves to be able to jump onto a building wagon, and as scum Cicero (that's me!) would be less likely to provide any such absolution. WIFOM I well know, but your post, Adel, is based in WIFOM. Cicero WOULD be more likely to say that in the situation where he is scum and Simenon is town. Total WIFOM and more importantly completely lacking in foundation.

What it does try to do is incriminate me at the same time that it, in itself, provides a conditional absolution for Simenon (Cicero's scummy behavior points to Simenon as town, is your logic), thus giving more credibility to Simenon's push. Townside players may want to note this as a possible link between the two players.

Notice how I've never said you were scum in my previous post. I just said it stopped being a joke.

Since this started you've been slippery. You have a habit of being clear on what you are not doing rather than what you are doing. If at that point in time you did NOT think I was scum and it was NOT a joke, what was it then?

Other players should be careful of this tendency of Simenon's as the game continues. There's an obvious tendency to stick his finger in the air and say "ah ah ah, I never SAID what can obviously inferred, so you are ASSUMING ha ha ha". This is a device designed to allow slippery wiggle room, the refuge of scum. Don't let him.

-------------------
As for Oman, since the consensus is that he's making sense, let's be clear about what part makes sense and what doesn't. It is one thing to disagree that something is a town tell. It is quite another to vote me for believing that it is. Oman's itchy trigger finger on that point is what didnt make sense to me. So Vollkan, when you ask

Oh, and I would love to know why somebody thinking your opinion is scummy is scummy. Saying it beforehand may give you the air of consistency, but it adds no substance.

That's your reason. One of the most important thing one needs to be able to do as scum is make mislynches happen. Scum cant win on imprisonments alone. So one of the most important things to look at when someone is voting someone is "that thing they find scummy, is it really scummy? Or are they just being opportunistic". To me that's pretty basic. And that's what I meant with Oman.

But what makes me believe you're scum is the fact that you just had to add in your own personal town tell in the post I cited. And the fact that you actually threatened to pretend to suspect someone vote someone unless they wised up. Either you're 80 years old or something isn't right here.

There's nothing not right. I didnt do the "tell" on purpose. Feel free to disregard it. But Im letting you know, voting Cicero for saying he's town, is, well...stupid, if you've played with Cicero. Don't want to use that info, how can I stop you.

And, Simenon, I wasnt "pretending" I was going to vote him. An intercessionary event - Adel's reasonless vote - occurred. I may vote him yet at a time of my choosing. At the moment he's at 3 votes which is enough until the joke votes come off him and there is evidence that all players are engaged. But I think the point stands. Me saying what you did is a weak town tell simply is not a scummy thing to say/do and threatening to vote over it is dumb at best and scummy at worst. Naturally, though, one must factor in that this is the first four pages of the game so players have to jump on the paucity that exists.

As for the misrepresentation bit -

Is there not scum benefit in starting a wagon on someone like this under the premise of a joke?

Well if there is you should vote Simenon.

My problem is that I think "null tell" is just a cop out, here. In either direction the tell is weak. But in my view talking null tell in this case is a bit like philosophical discussions of the nature of objectivity and how it can't really exist. I don't think the same action is equally likely to have been done by Simenon town and Simenon scum and I'd like to press people into not fence sitting on it. really in doing it, if you are town, its what you think as well I would bet, since you say you did it to start discussion. I think calling it a null tell is a safe place for players, including scum, to sit. I'd rather they acknowledge that in either direction the tell is weak, but that they actually engage in an analysis of why they think YOU did it WHEN you did it. That's more helpful than just shrugging "null tell".

Finally though,

Unvote, Vote Erg0

(like I dont have enough early enemies in the game, let's open up a WHOLE NEW FRONT!.) to draw attention to the fact that he is speaking only when spoken to (I call this my "Candyman" scumtell, and find it surprisingly effective) and, in responding, avoided taking a stand on the issues in play. Instead, he just posted fluff.

[cicero]

Oman's itchy trigger finger on that point is what didnt make sense to me.

OH YAH! CAUSE OMAN HAS NEVER BEEN HAPPY TO JUMP ON EARLY WAGONS!

Are you articulating your own personal town tell? *Gasp* Careful. Simmy gonna getcha!

[cicero]

Sigh, I'm pointing out your faulty logic, which rears its ugly head once again.

Cool. cuz I was busy pointing out YOUR faulty logic. It's an infinite loop of suck! Huzzah!

[cicero]

Sure. Let me explain, In the big post and the earlier posts I argued that your reason for voting me lacked the proper foundation for a good vote. I gave reasons why. That was the faulty logic I was referring to. Nothing to do with your later cap-locked statement.

Interestingly though, Your retort after reading my very long post, wasnt to defend your reasoning, it was just to argue (if I might make explicit the premises that seem implicit in your response) that you jump on early bandwagons because they are early and you want to get the game going, not because they are good strong reasons. Which seems to bolster and confirm my perception of what was happening in the first place.

[cicero]

Far be it from me to ask you to justify your actions in a game of mafia. How silly. My bad.

[cicero]

I'm back from my vacation now but am catching up on stuff at work and at home. I'm engaged but cant make a big post responding to questions quite yet. I'm a little surprised at how discussion slowed down. I'd like to know what Shanba is up to. I dont see a lot from him yet. My vote on Erg0 still makes me happy for now. He doesnt feel like curious town. Neither does Shanba. His "I don't like cicero's defense, vote Oman" made no sense at all.

Billy Twilight and others can comment on why my defense seems "strained". Near as I can tell, I'm quicker to call somethign a town tell, but people seem to think that means more to me than it does. I have no problem suspecting Simenon if he does scummy things and I already think some things he's done are scummy. Others townie. Mostly he's just being provocative which is good in the early game.

Simenon, going by memory you asked me something about whether every time I vote do I think the person "is scum" in response to me saying "why am I scum". The answer is what you might expect. I vote for people that I think have done something scumMY and preferably for the scumMIEST though I do votehop like a fiend to put pressure on a particular person i want more info and reaction from. Unlike some other players in this game I'm not very "tricksy". I dont do a lot of disingenious things to gauge reactions and generally (though certainly not always) disapprove when others do it because I think gambitting is far less effective than others seem to think it is.

Sorry - more will have to wait until probably tomorrow.

[cicero]

I still don't get what is so "conservative" about Adel's play. It feels a bit similar to the way she played when I was scum with her in Guardian's IPick. She posts less than she does as town and her posting feels cautious. As I've said before, I'm not a fan of the Adel school of mafia play. I dont like dishonest townies. People should quit doing disingenuous things in order to "gauge for reactions". If you play honestly, people will eventually smell the honest. That's how townies win. At the moment Adel smells scummy to me. Note my vote hasnt moved. Maybe it is just because she is, yet again, playing in a manner that attempts to confound. But I don't really care. If it feels and smells scummy to me, I'm voting for it. More often than not I'm correct.

[cicero]

Back to the matter at hand. So you say Adel smells scummy here. Is that statement based totally on her acting similarly here as she did (as scum) in Guardian's IPick game, or is there something else factoring in?

Well, it is early days so take it with a grain of salt, but yes. It's because her play feels like her play in that game thus far. So I dont find her play incredibly "unusual for Adel" as others seem to. I also think her vote for me was opportunistic, and she clings on to it with poor reasoning, which I believe (but obviously cannot prove) was reasoning she came up with

post hoc

.

First, it sounds like you can quantify the power of your scum smelling nose. Please share your proof that you really can smell scum more often than most.

Certainly I could never demonstrate such a proposition among such august company. And yet I still think my scum nose is pretty good. and getting better every day.

Secondly, what have I done in this game that is scummy?

I've already answered this. Your reasoning and behavior on my wagon and your more cautious lower posting approach.

Third, how I am playing "in a manner that attempts to confound"?
By not attempting to confound am I attempting to confound?

Apparently. You've apparently totally mindfucked shaft.ed somehow.

[cicero]

Jitsu, your posts thus far seem to have a lot of "it could be this" or it "could be that". Would you say that's a fair assessment?

[cicero]

So you were town in both games. No experience as scum, right?

[cicero]

Well, it is early days so take it with a grain of salt, but yes. It's because her play feels like her play in that game thus far. So I dont find her play incredibly "unusual for Adel" as others seem to. I also think her vote for me was opportunistic, and she clings on to it with poor reasoning, which I believe (but obviously cannot prove) was reasoning she came up with

post hoc

.

Can you explain more how she is clinging to her vote with poor reasoning? Is there something specific she said?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 60#1106660

Paragraphs 2 and 3.

[cicero]

CKD unvotes Shanba because Shanba is absent from the site but still puts a placeholder comment that is basically still an IGMEOY on Shanba, and that makes CKD scummy? I thought it was perfectly sensible and don't agree with Jitsu's point at all.

[cicero]

CKD unvotes Shanba because Shanba is absent from the site but still puts a placeholder comment that is basically still an IGMEOY on Shanba, and that makes CKD scummy? I thought it was perfectly sensible and don't agree with Jitsu's point at all.

Excuse me, but I never said what CKD did was scummy. Why did you come to that conclusion?

I was looking for an explanation why he did what he did and trying to gauge his motives. I did decide to turn up the pressure on him just a notch to see how he would react, because he really hasn't been tested much yet.

He didn't overreact and gave a logical reason why he did what he did, so I find his reaction more likely to be townish.

Holy Waffle Iron, Batman. Here's another person to come along with the "I never said" clause. But then right afterwards admits to exerting pressure. Are we going to split hairs like this and dance like lawyers for the next 80 pages? because its already boring. I'm hardly misrepresenting you. If you decide to turn up the pressure you are asserting that what has happened is potentially suspicious. ie scummy. Its early game so obviously we are chasing after fumes here. That is understood. No one is saying you have came to the hell bent conclusion that CKD is obviously scum. But it seems to me that you inferred his action was potentially scummy and I wasnt the only one:

So you still want to hear his reason, but you are unvoting and saying that Shanba should still consider your vote still there? What's up with that? He was only at four votes by my count. I highly doubt that he was in any danger of being quicklynched.

I can understand if someone needs to be away for a bit (heck, I just was), but Shanba hasn't even said much when he has posted.

This post criticises CKDs action. Shaft.ed backs up your criticism with a vote.

I agree with Jitsu's point against CKD:

So you still want to hear his reason, but you are unvoting and saying that Shanba should still consider your vote still there? What's up with that? He was only at four votes by my count. I highly doubt that he was in any danger of being quicklynched.

To unvote at L-3 is a bit strange to me. You know there aren't any wild cards in this game that will come by and hammer out of the ether. Why the concern?

unvote vote: CKD

so I'm not the only one who inferred that you saw it as a point *against* CKD. Shaft.ed jumped right on. Why did you not correct him when he said it? Why only me?

Jitsu, you are now satisfied with CKD's answer. Shaft.ed is not. What do you make of that? Is Shaft.ed wrong?

Shaft.ed, is Jitsu wrong to be so quick to accept CKDs explanation?

[cicero]

So here we are.

I think Adel's point on Vollkan is good AND I think Simenon's point on Shaft.ed is good. Jitsu is a waffler though and I think a little pressure on him would have been good. Adel, however, swooped in to put an end to that and now the game is stalled again.

Then there are the inactives. Shanba is clearly not playing this game. Neither is Billy Twilight. Erg0 barely is.

The Oman wagon misrepresents the game. It is Vollkan's random vote and two people who really arent engaged. The Shanba wagon is a pressure to post wagon.

Good old day ones. Always such fun.

[cicero]

Adel. You think I'm scum all the time, I think. You are like my new Battle Mage. Maybe you just need to adjust to how I play.

[cicero]

You havent exactly done much yet, CKD.

[cicero]

haha

[cicero]

No. Not really. You did a little Shanba push and then you jumped off in a sensible way that others tried to make seem unsensible. You are engaged. You just hadnt done much remarkable. I didnt say anything about Fonz either. Who is being Fonz - which means hard to read for me.

I don't buy anyone's I'm a late game bloomer stuff though. That's for grandmas and girly men. The game is hardest for town on day one and hardest for scum at the end. So everyone should be working hard on day one. It is the most important time.

[cicero]

Cicero I'm a bit confused that you could simultaneously agree with Adel that vollkan's Jitsu case seems disingenuous, while agreeing with a lot of his points about waffling.

You aren't the only one. Cicero (That's Me!) is confused too. Basically a lot of good points are being made against a lot of players. So that's the point where I need to pick a horse and bet on it. But I haven't yet. I got a similar vibe from Vollkan's post as Adel did and am surprised other's didn't. But that doesn't mean I'm right, because in terms of "vibe" I'm also getting a scummy vibe off of Adel that predates the Vollkan one. Jitsu is indeed a waffler. And your use of exploit did indeed seem opportunistic. At the same time, in this stage people are looking for things to jump on and those things are generally things of tiny merit.

So all I can say is that I'm not sure who to believe yet but I see (Adel + Jitsu) as one possible match up and (Vollkan + Shaft.ed) as another.

[cicero]

You have successfully had it all ways.

Yup. I haven't picked a side fully on this one yet.

Adel: You fail to consider cicero scum/ckd town. Ckd's post is stupid (referring to "you left me out"), but there is no reason to point that out as scum. That post would 1. alert the town of a mistake a scumbuddy made 2. alert the town that ckd was lurking.

Rather, I'm reading the situation as Cicero trying to tie himself to CKD. Because after every mediocre post by CKD, Cicero is always there to make a comment afterwards that makes CKD's posts seem even worse.
.

CKD/Simenon pairing +1 for future reference and those keeping an Adel like score. I'm not tying myself to anyone. I'm callin' em like I sees em. I guess I tied myself to you too by saying I didnt think your start game flippancy was scummy. Also CKD addressed me first and solicited a comment.

And really, 257 doesn't look so bad until you have 258 following it.

257 and 258 don't look bad at all. Adel pops out and says "CKD and Cicero are a scum pair" because CKD mentions I didn't mention him in my post. This is (in my view) a dumb point by Adel. I don't mention Fonz either and the post wasn't meant to be exhaustive. It was just a little state of play post to kick start discussion - which it has. Adel doesn't mention that I haven't mentioned Fonz when that should at least garner the same +1 to scum teams. So CKD notices that this is a dumb point, since he's the one who mentioned his own absence from the post soliciting input, and he makes a sarcastic comment. I laugh. Nothing bad there.

[cicero]

Jitsu is indeed a waffler.

no, he is simply a careful poster who simply hasn't adopted the bombastic style common here.

Right. A waffler. He waffles as town. Good to know. Thank goodness we all have such bulletproof metas.

[cicero]

You two are beginning to look like an Abbot and Costello cartoon.

CKD - why did mention my not mentioning you. I assume it was because, well, you weren't mentioned. DId you notice Fonz's absence from the (ha!) analysis as well? Why not mention that? Why am I the only one who wants to mention that?

Scum team is CKD, Cicero, Fonz? We can all go home now? Is that the idea, Adel? What happens to Vollkan and Simenon then? Jistsu, Erg0, BillyTWilight, Oman, Shanba are all obvious town, I guess. Yes? (did I miss anyone because I'm actually NOT TRYING TO BE COMPREHENSIVE HERE).

[cicero]

Simenon, if you put in qualifiers to make your opinion sound subjective instead of speaking in objectives (I don't recall you saying it looks bad "to me" originally. You just declared that "it looks bad" suggesting that it would to any reasonable observer.) then I'll put in corollaries as well that it is my opinion. If not don't blame me for doing the same thing you are doing. Everyone else just put in place "in my opinion" for all my future posts and all of Simenon's and it will save us all a lot of hassle. I couldn't, of course, give a hoot if it is a pet peeve. And I'll play the way I wan't to play, FYI.

I DO however think that what is happening is you trying to make me look bad. Not me trying to make CKD look bad, for what it's worth.

You made a point of noting the possibility of CKD town/ Cicero Scum to Adel. But did not raise the opposite possibility - Cicero town / CKD scum. Why not?

[quote="Adel']And you are signifying that by agreeing with all sides?[/quote]

I'm saying the observations have merit. They are tempered by my pre-existing suspicion of Adel, and by the possibility that Shaft.ed and Vollkan wanted to pressure Jitsu just as you have been known to apply pressure for its own sake - right? I find the whole thing interesting and it will play into my analysis as the game goes on. Jumping immediately down on one side or the other might be nice -especially when I'm simultaneously pointing out that Jitsu is a waffler - but sadly because I'm an honest guy I currently don't have the luxury.

Do you think you would have been better off without writing "haha"?

haha.

[cicero]

edwop: the borked quote tag should not only be fixed but it should refer to Simenon. Not Adel.

[cicero]

Adel - does spelling logic with a k change its meaning for you? Could you please define it? Is it "magick" logic?

[cicero]

You know what's crazy. I mean WILD.

CKD and I could both be town.

I happen to know for a fact that 50% of this proposition is true.

[cicero]

Haha.

[cicero]

Adel - does spelling logic with a k change its meaning for you? Could you please define it? Is it "magick" logic?

[cicero]

There is no M in Shanba. Which is ok because there is really no Shanba in this game.

[cicero]

heh, thanks Shaft.ed.

I just checked for Shanba on site after my last post. Turns out Shaft.ed said on June 20 in the V/LA thread that he had one more week of a horrible exam schedule. So maybe we'll see him in here soonishly. I should have checked that before grumping about him. Factoring in BillyTwilight's new baby, we have a reasonably full and active game then going forward.

More substantive posting after I finish this thing I am doing at work. (grumble. stoopid work!)

[cicero]

EDWOP: Shaft.ed in last post should be Shanba.

[cicero]

The Scumdel theory I'm currently considering is this. Adel was being called out for playing conservatively. I said she looked the way she did as scum in Ipick. Then her play switched to a more hyper aggressive mode of play. Which, yes, is how one might behave if one wanted to appear townier. Simply put I have thought almost all of Adel's opinions on this day one are opinions I would not share.

I'm not feeling most of the attacks on CKD at all, frankly. On a pro TownDel tip, I had some sympathy for her Vollkan point, as I said before. I will also say that at least she's pushing buttons and playing aggressively. That's a good thing.

Answers to all questions posed to me are forthcoming in the next couple days. Apologies if I don't answer your questions right away and still post. I'd rather post my opinion on something than stay silent. Answering questions requires going back, finding the quote, quoting it, posing a response. Lots of blah blah stuff like that. A post like this just needs me to open my mouth and spew. So just because I make one of these doesn't mean I've ignored you.

[cicero]

Can you contrast this with the waffling you are accusing Jitsu of?

Easily. No one could ever accuse me of being a habitual waffler. Sometimes I say a point could go either way or that i can't draw a firm conclusion from it. But other times - lots of other times - I'll just say this or that is a great point or this or that is crap. I do it bluntly with short sentences and pretty great clarity. Jitsu was coming across as far more cautiously equivocal then anyone would ever sanely accuse me of being. I'm more rash and provocative. So there's your contrast.

That doesn't mean he's necessarily scum by any stretch. But it is one of the many tactical approaches of scum, so one needs to raise the point, ask how different his play is here from other games as a confirmed town, and then press him on his opinions (or lack thereof) to determine whether they are honestly held or whether he's just equivocating to avoid conflict and attention. Just as we, likewise, need to attack someone else's "tunnel vision" and confirmation bias to see whether that's honest. I don't fundamentally look to whether a person IS waffling or IS having confirmation bias. I try to see whether I agree with their reasoning or whether what they posted might be colored by ulterior motive.

So that's your long answer there, Shaft.ed.

[cicero]

ckd looks a little scummy (his defence to Adel was particularly troublesome)

How so? How about now after you've done your far more thorough read through.

Jitsu seems slightly off from what I saw of him in vollkan's game, but that's a back-of-the-mind thing right now.

Can you give me any substance here at all to substantiate this?

Oman's "I'm not voting" post was definitely different for him, and I'm not sure if this is mitigated by the fact that he pointed this out himself.

Of course it is. It's like alcoholism. Admitting one is a rampant bandwagon humper is the first step on the long road to recovery.

Something more thorough will come, pending some note-taking on my part.

Waiting.

[cicero]

I think Adel's point on Vollkan is good

Define "good". I don't see how a smell test assertion can rightly be considered a point at all, yet alone a "good" one.

Let's not play at robots. The intangible plays a strong role in this game. Gut is very important. Myself, Simenon, and Adel - all felt the same possibility with your post. It was an aggressive shot across the bow at a player who, do to a careful and equivocal style and a lower profile on the boards, was the one that, one could surmise, could most easily be punched in the chin and knocked on his ass. I felt the same thing Adel did but didn't want to say anything immediately. I wanted to watch things develop and see whether your push felt genuine.

That is not to say that the reasons for gut are inarticulable. How can I articulate what we all saw. Your earlier postings hadn't been quite as pointed and aggressive. Your swoop on Jitsu was. And it used pointed language. The timing and manner of posting - up to and including strong language and the use of italics - was clearly a rather aggressive shot across the bow. So I noted what others did as well - that this might be an attempt to land an easy day one mislynch on Jitsu by possible scum.

By no means am I satisfied that that is definitely what is happening. But to suggest no one should note it, and to attempt to wave away all such intuitive play is highly problematic to me. Are you really saying there is no place for gut and intuition in mafia? or are you just asking for people to try to articulate what their gut is doing?

All this being said, I don't think for a second you should stop questioning Jitsu. I'm not prepared to vote you for this. I just agree with Adel's observation vis-a-vis a

possible

ongoing scenario. Remember that the opposing

possible

scenario one might see is Adel swooping to a junior scumbuddy's rescue. It isn't the first time she's done it either.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 56#1123056

So in the words of Adel, Adel/Jitsu +2.

(This kind of associational stuff, incidentally, is in my opinion all good day one info to be used

as the game goes on

. Using associational tells as the basis for a day one lynch is very problematicwhen no one is dead. They should be used when a scum has been found in order to trace the other scum.)

Waffling is a matter of personal writing style and I don't think it is something that has any game-relevance.

This is far too sweeping a generalisation and may point to a difference in our use of the term. When I say waffling I mean equivocation and unwillingness to pick a side. It is substantive. It is not a matter of style. It often has game significance. For instance when people are pushing a scumbuddy's and you don't want to bus him but you also don't want to have his back. Waffling occurs. Or when you want to keep your poker hand close to your chest in the early game as scum to allow for maximum tactical flexibility as the game goes on. To suggest waffling simly has *poof* no game relevance doesn't make any sense to me, so what are you really trying to say?

[cicero]

How about you let it play out for a bit, or join in with your own thoughts. I'm gonna let it play out for a bit. And if I have interjectory relevant thoughts I'll make them to the participants.

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote Adel

I oppose this approach to CKD. I really don't see what is so offensive about his conduct and apparently some pressure may be necessary to send said message.

[cicero]

cicero+ckd+1
were up to two now.

unvote, vote:ckd

may as well leave my vote on who I think is scum rather than try to pressure a lurker.

@cicero, if you think any of his questions really are informative, just ask them yourself.

I'm on CKD's side at the moment because I think he makes the most sense and I've disliked most of your play all day. I think you are also being a rank hypocrite at the moment and don't think for a second that CKD should be compared to ABR as a player.

If CKD comes up scum, by all means feel free to chase me around the ring, but I'm not going to not call em as I see em because you throw plus signs around like ninja stars. To be honest, I'm very uncomfortable defending any player in a game including CKD. I've had a bad experience with a scum player named Pwayne66. Sorry to WIFOM this but I'd be far less likely to do it with him as my scumbuddy.

(although I believe some of the crazy Simenon math goes like - I am scum trying to buddy up to CKD to make him look bad so that if I flip scum people will think he is scum... if so, fine. Not a scenario that can happen in this game since I will flip town. Converseley if he flips scum I'm his scumbuddy because that would be clearly be my only motivation for opposing what he's been dealt so far this game. Well - don't be too confident in that little analysis either, folks, you'll end up with egg on your face.)

Anyway, I think this is just a distracting thing you are doing that is increasing the signal to noise ratio. I think it is unwarranted and, frankly, seems like you running for the hills when you got beaten in an argument, aka scummy. I totally agree with keeping things civil but I've seen you use profanity, be very aggressive, flippant and sarcastic

in this very game

so what is it exactly that is putting CKD over the line?

I appreciate you want us all to hold hands and sing kumbaya because Jitsu is such a model citizen apparently, but a little emotion is to be expected in mafia - and some aggressiveness is a part of the game. When you are putting forth a case that feels like a crap case and that you later admit is based on a false assuredness when in fact on your side of the computer screen you are far more ambivalent, expect resistance.

It would be different if CKD came in and called you a stupid whore or something but seriously I really don't think we've reached that level of abrasiveness. So once again, this feels artificial. It also feels like the type of thing that shouldn't be tolerated by town.

Cicero/CKD +++++++ UP IN A TREE. K-I-S-S-I-N-G

[cicero]

I don't understand why an invitational becomes a reason to play like Anix. I'd expect everyone to be bringing their "A" game, not their experimental game.

We have a week before we need to string someone up and a good third of the game is floating by under the radar.

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote Billy Twilight

Erg0 would be cool too.

[cicero]

It isn't that it isn't scummy. The question is: could you justify lynching Oman instead of Erg0 or Billy?

[cicero]

someone getting belligerent and rude in the face of an accusation

is a terrible scumtell in my opinion.

Adel seems to be more interested in finding scum and ckd seems to be more interested in destroying Adel's credibility to keep any case from forming against him.

Is the best argument in favor of Adel and against CKD and is well articulated.

[cicero]

@Fonz - you picked Adel over CKD. What do you think of the argument that BillyTwilight makes (and Adel does too) that Adel is scumhunting harder than CKD and therefore CKD is more likely scum and Adel more likely town?

@Erg0 - What's goin' on? Hi! What's new in your world? New baby like Billy Twilight? I'm told I should ignore your play this day one because you are always like this on Day one. Is this true? Should I excuse you?

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote Fonz

[cicero]

Sorry - exactly what is the "Vollkan effect"? He does his PBPAs and then inexperienced players pooh themselves?

[cicero]

oh, that's weird.

I stop posting now and then because I figure I am overposting. That's about it. :p

[cicero]

Ah. That's not weird. That's just dumb. (and smart of him).

[cicero]

That's nice.

Deadline is Wednesday.

[cicero]

With two days left, I'll state my preferences plainly.

On day one I would rather lynch one of our under the radar people or one of the people pushing a bad case, then one of the people having a bad case pushed against them.

Please note the deadline rules. Majority of votes cast at deadline makes a lynch. If no one has a majority there's a no lynch

Shanba and Billy Twilight have given reasonable excuses for their under-contribution and Billy has stepped up recently. Shanba no longer has exams as an excuse and is still under-contributing.

Fonz and Ergo have no excuse. Neither are honestly contributing. Fonz feels like scum Fonz to me. He will duck in and say a few things. When he does his swoop in he gives the illusion of active participation but then goes back to radio silence. This is very much how I felt he played in Pirates vs. Ninjas.

Ergo is simply coasting through day one doing nothing and deserves to hang for it.

Shaft.ed defended Erg0's play as typical day one play. This is very bad. There are other noteworthy alarm bells in Shaft.ed's play but I need to go back to remember what they are.

The case suggesting Vollkan as opportunistically pushing weaker players stands.

Adel is, in my view the worst offender for pushing bad cases. She is also already forming scum groups in her head based on the idea that scum are supporting each other. In one case she discusses (as I recall) a set up of distancing. Please remember that distancing and bussing exist as well. I see no reason to discount an Adel, Vollkan scum team at the moment, for example. Others should see no immediate reason to discount an Adel Cicero scumteam even though Adel and I know this does not exist. You get the idea, though. She also switched up her playstyle once people commented on it.

Simenon's drop off in play is noteworthy.

So is Oman's.

Both were willing to push crapwagons at the beginning of the day, but now seem more interested in riding things out to deadline.

The case's against CKD seem like fluff to me, which doesn't mean they aren't correct by accident. A little of his play seems artificial to me now. In particular the fact that when I've defended him and that became an issue, he's almost actively ignored me and it as an issue. When called out for his emotional reactions, his tone has slowly shifted to a very un-CKD stoicism. Whether he is probing enough is an open question. He says he is but I can see a case for him not.

So anyway, in my view, like most day ones there are lots of small scumtells to draw on. And as usual I, being Cicero, will advocate the lynching of a lurker over a strong contributor. My theory, as always, less information now in return for more information later. As always this will be ignored and someone who was active on day one will die, once again rewarded day one non-contribution as an effective strategy, to my eternal dismay.

[cicero]

Why not lynch Shanba then, who is still - post exams - not contributing?

I really don't like associational scumtells on day one. They are double weak.

[cicero]

Mod - request a prod on all players informing them of the deadline

[cicero]

Because I want the town to look at people bussing, Jitsu. Like I said.

Adel is all like "ooh look at Cicero and CKD kissing" and I'm all like "that's nice, but scum interaction comes in more shades than just red".

And I always phrase it like that. I did it earlier with CKD, I think. When I talk about me and someone else as a scum pair I generally point out that the two of us know it isn't true. For example, Jitsu, I don't know if you are scum or not - but you and I know we aren't a scum PAIR. I know that and you know that.

I am unequivocally against lynching a lurker. I think it's completely useless and gives us no information on the connections between the players alive currently. Suppose we lynch a lurker today and scum kill one tonight? We will be in almost the exact same boat as today, with no resolution to be drawn from day 1 info.

This is the same old argument. Simple fact is that if you let lurkers coast you get stuck with them in the end game instead, with no more information than you have now. If you get rid of them early and push forward a contributory game, you get more information as the game goes along leading to a better end game situation.

Of course I would expect you to oppose lynching a lurker, you lurked through all of day one. But Erg0 doesn't have the excuse of a brand new baby.

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote Adel

I'd rather vote the person pushing this dumb CKD wagon than CKD.

[cicero]

]But for the most part, it's the mod's job (IMO) to make sure the players in his/her game are active.

I've seen the exact opposite argued, usually by people who mod a lot. It's far from settled. Many mods believe that that is too much of an intrustion in the game and that it is up to the town to force interactions. If a person is willing to lurk then the town needs to be willing to force them to contribute, and if the sense is that the town won't punish the lurking, the lurking will continue.

Why have you been lurky scum and lurky town, BT? Don't like playing mafia?

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote Adel

I'd rather vote the person pushing this dumb CKD wagon than CKD.

I think at this point you should be voting for me then, cicero.

I'm pushing for the originator. But if you'd like a vote for a little while to mark my displeasure for posterity you can certainly have one.

Unvote. Vote BillyTwilight.

unvote Billy Twilight. Vote Adel.

Happier? You can put it in your chart and Jitsu can make a 500 word post on how Cicero's vote for you and immediate unvote was "weird".

Seriously, I think town's would do better generally pushing the people who disingenuously push tiny things like they are big things on day one. Scum need to get town lynched. Adel has been good with most lynches today and has generally been bloodthirsty and several kinds of scummy. She's looking for anything to hang a day one lynch on, any association, unless it involves Jitsu I guess. I'm not sure who else she'd protect, but that seems scummier to me than anything CKD apparently did.

If people want "information" from this lynch, Adel's a good place to get it.

That having been said, CKD, if you are going to spend the last two days using a pity party defense coupled with a soft claim, you may as well claim.

[cicero]

@Fonz - I forgot to check the V/LA thread. I'll need to wear that one. In terms of the larger issue though, you have 18 posts in this thread. I have 65. I believe your post totals are lower as scum. At the same time I believe you are in 9 games and I am in 1 so that needs to temper things, but I want your pattern noted for future reference. That's a large part of what I do on day one.

Now I shall go and check the V/LA and the rest of the site to see if Erg0 has been hit by a truck. If a lurker is lynched I want it to be Erg0.

[cicero]

Oh well... Erg0 hasn't been on the site since June 24th. So forget all about that idea.

[cicero]

And Shanba hasn't been back to mafiascum since June 27th. His last post on site is his last in this Minvitational. So I don't want to lynch him either.

Woo Woo. Looks like I no longer want to lynch a lurker. At least no one currently lurking.

[cicero]

My cuh-raaaazeeee recommendation is that everyone pick a side in the CKD-Adel fight and vote for one of them.

[cicero]

Deadline is in less than 3 hours.

[cicero]

So that day one sucked.

Shaft.ed, why did you say you were going to vote Adel and then instead hammer CKD?

[cicero]

The only thing Fonz posted before was

Oh crap, that was supposed to be the second half of the post. The first is here:

Bizarre to do that twice. Not scummy. Bizarre.

[cicero]

What was weird to me about Shaft.ed's vote was the fact that he threw it down and didn't feel remotely compelled to say "Well, I'm doing this because...". It was just "I'm here." Bam. And it was after Erg0 speculated about him trying to cause a No Lynch. Not even "I know I said Adel but that isn't going to happen because..."

I dunno. Something about the way it went down tweaks me. Maybe that he felt pressured by Erg0. Maybe he just figured it was self evident. Not enough for a vote. But definitely worth my making a note.

Re-reading.

[cicero]

That makes sense to me, actually.

[cicero]

I tried to post something and Guardian locked the thread before I could too. He was ninja quick after Shaft.ed's vote. Twilight lasted about 6 nanoseconds. (well - three minutes actually. I just checked.)

[cicero]

So anyway, It looked like CKD was going to be the lynch.

Vollkan, Oman, Billy, Twilight are living players who were happy to be on that lynch. We know that Adel and Simenon were town. Adel is, well, Adel. and I'll never fully understand her. It seemed patently obvious to me that CKD was a bad lynch. Adel was less obvious because in my view she kept looking to lynch almost anyone and did it with very bad "logick". Simenon jumped on fairly late to prevent No lynch. So the question is who else on the wagon, if anyone is scum.

Question for Vollkan, Oman, and Billytwilight. Of the other two people listed - which do you think is most likely scum?

Or conversely do you think that scum avoided the CKD wagon altogether because they figured townies would get it done without them? I find that hard to believe since I thought the basis for it was so stupid.

Next chance I get to post I'll look at the people off the wagon including me. But I wanted to ask you folks that question.

[cicero]

yeah well you're dead wrong about me but I need to go back and figure out if any of your case needs answering. Any questions in the meantime?

[cicero]

Oh and Oman, Vollkan is seen as one of the smartest people on the website. yet he went for the CKD case. Why not him?

[cicero]

I don't agree with #1 being scummy at all. I think it was nonsense from the get go. It isnt about whether an unvote is necessary. its about realising you are pressuring an absentee and getting off it. Hell. continuing to leave your vote there is scummy in and of itself.

[cicero]

Do you ever look to see what, specifically, is causing your "gut" reaction? I appreciate gut a lot. But its useful to identify what the specific flags were: timing of posts, certain phrasings. You get the idea.

What I am missing from your answers is the substance. Why specifically Billy Twilight more than Vollkan?

Where is Billy Twilight by the way? His last post is Sunday. You out there, Billy?

[cicero]

Fonz, can you please identify who you are quoting in posts like that. I know it's Shaft.ed but it would be helpful if you could identify in those type of posts.

[cicero]

That's fine. But just look in the code and put ="shaft.ed" in the first quote bubble if you remember. The rest are then inferred.

[cicero]

Kison, why doesn't that make sense to you?

You think other people are scummy so you fear you might inadvertently be helping along a scum wagon. Where's the problem there?

Why do you think a player need a new player to put a vote on in order to move a vote?

[cicero]

I have seen nothing scummier than cicero's change from posting a lot and being extremely defensive to hardly posting and not really comment on gme issues much (earlD1-Late D1) looks scummy scummy scummy.

Weird. I don't think one word of this is true.

[cicero]

@Cicero: How satisfied are you with Shaft.ed's answer I quoted above? Also, admittedly, you thought Adel to be scummy yesterday in part due to meta, and it seems to me that Adel being scum was more of a factor in your view on the game than it was for several other people. My question is, now that she's flipped town, how has that changed your view of things?

I'm satisfied with Shaft.ed's answer there as I believe I pretty much already said.

The answer to the Adel question is that it doesn't change much usefully except that I'm not chasing Adel around today calling her scum, which I definitely would be if she was alive, because she gets so wrapped up in her magic Adel logick and attempt to be disingenuous (i.e. "play differently") in every game and be hard to read that she just ends up being scummy.

I'm a bit worried about town's chances in this game at the moment. Maybe I'm just the village idiot but I think day one got off to a bad start with people calling things out as scummy in order to get the game going but are now trapped in the pattern of standing by those convictions. If town is going to win we need to reset and go back to trying hard to get an honest read from our guts. Scum is going to have to claim things that go against what intuitively feels right and that's their weakness. If town miscalibrates its instincts, scum wins.

[cicero]

Other people can judge and act accordingly. I objectively think you are either scum or you are off your moogle rocker.

[cicero]

I thought some of what Simenon was doing was scummy and some of it was townie. I can only vote one person at a time.

And I still think Erg0 is a very good bet for scum in this game.

[cicero]

I'm not just blending in at any point. That's nonsense. I was active throughout the entire day. Simenon stopped posting. I did not. I certainly had to post less than when I was the issue which was the case in early day one. But suggesting I suddenly started going with the flow OR lurked is dumb. I opposed the CKD wagon. Gave my opinion on all the issues of the day. Asked probing questions. Tried to get the lurkers posting. Everything you are saying is without foundation.

In saying this am I being "overdefensive" again? I'm curious.

[cicero]

Come on guys. This is an invitational. Why of all games is this turning into a lurkfest?

So Fonz, nothing to comment on then?

Easy. Its July. I've been thinking the same thing though. This is a horribly lackadaisickal day two following a terrible for town day one and night one. I'm trying to get through a full re-read to sort out a few things and figure out who I believe in a few of the ongoing controversies.

Here are some random ill-thought out thinks to get you going meanwhile.

Why does everyone think Simenon died? Fonz opined that I might have done it because he was attacking me. I know this to be untrue. You do not. For me, I don't think he was the most deadly of foes on day one though I don't think anyone played a really stellar day so I guess it is as good a choice as any. I can only assume the idea was to use it to see if I could get pushed into being a mislynch although that doesn't make sense because Simenon wasn't really working to hard at lynching me by day's end. Quite the opposite. No matter what he may have said to pay lip service to the idea, I don't think his heart was in my demise by the end of our exchange.

So what Sim's death does make me look to is: who is still alive that people might want dead.

I know that analyzing nightkills on this site has somehow become WIFOM verboten but its worth noting that Vollkan is still alive. He seems to be early kill bait when he's town, no? Alone that means nothing. But he also seems to swoop in to carry off bandwagons on the "weaker" targets. Most recently pushing Oman over his belief that my play dropped off. Earlier Jitsu. And he seems too smart to be on the CKD wagon so easily. He did his great PbP analysis but it was after it was requested. I'd put him as probable scum in this game at this point.

The trouble with this game is this. There seems to be a small element of social rank going on. I'm betting an Oman lynch would be a helluvalot easier to get than a Vollkan lynch. So would Billy Twilight. Likewise I think some of the pushes against me by Simenon and Oman has at least something to do with the fact that they think I'm a pain in the ass.

I've seen this kind of thing before - in Lost Boys - where I realised that one player at least was, at least in part, voting and trusting people mostly based on their overall duration and reputation on the site. Kinda fatal when the scum turned out to be MoS and Pooky. We have three townies down. That means a good third of us is full of shit today. With no dead scum we have no toe hold to analyze interactions. So lets start talking about people. All of them.

On the other hand, Oman is clearly not putting in an A-game. The thing is I bet he often plays better as scum. I haven't actually played with Oman extensively so a good meta analysis is useful. His case on me has a small element of truth in it that can't be ignored. After taking up a ton of air and space in the early game and being frustrated with lurkers/non-contributors there were times that I hung back slightly from posting to see what would develop without me taking up all the attention. So I don't want Oman lynched over noticing that that happened when he's actually evidencing a rather deft sense of observation for my rhythm.

Believing it to be scummy behavior or that I actually stayed under the radar though is totally unfounded. I was opinionated throughout and never too far from the keyboard.

Finally, a question: Fonz - Can you do an encapsulate a restatement of your reasoning for why Shaft.ed is scum?

More as I get a chance to find more things to ask about.

[cicero]

Kison, I have to agree with you on that part of the Shaft.ed case, re: taking Jitsu's obvious meaning out of context and claiming joke / reaction testing.

Oman's case on me is posted already, Kison.

[cicero]

July 8th and then on July 14th after we remember you are gone again. Candyman Candyman Candyman.

Vote Erg0

[cicero]

Yeah. I'd be all over that bit of mafiascum recieved wisdom if I didnt see it work so well on another website recently. Some of the things people believe on this site are taken as gospel truth when they're really just site conventions. Not thinking about nightkills is dumb.

Anyway, I'm not even sure I believe my case on Vollkan yet myself. But I'm watching him.

Oh yeah - I don't know everyone's meta nearly as well as people seem to think I should. Also I'm apparently too stupid to even understand Vollkan when he writes but let's see...

1) My survival: The meta that I have for being NKed as town is something that most people here would be familiar with. That diminishes my survival as a meta-tell against me. Moreover, it's hardly uncommon for me to survive a night phase.

This is dumb. People get nightkilled because scum percieve them as a threat, more than any other reason. Second they kill someone they think isn't traceable to them. Third they kill someone they think won't get lynched. They don't keep you alive to confound the meta of you being alive. There is no WAY They decided "lets keep Vollkan alive and someone like Cicero will try to get him lynched." There was just no evidence in play to suggest the likelihood of such a thing.

2) Bandwagoning: Not sure what you are getting at here. I made a joke vote for Oman (by no means ignore my joke wagon, but it's misleading of you to say that I swooped in), and I made a serious case against Jitsu who, as I have said before, I don't consider to be a weaker player at all. As for my current inquiring of Oman, I challenge you to actually explain why I should not have asked those questions. This whole argument you are making here is baseless because it's seeking to impose one set of motivations upon my behaviour which, itself, you haven't attacked.

This is a fair point and its the biggest problem I see as well. I'm not talking about early Oman vote. Just recent. And we all noted the Jitsu vote as being possibly opportunistic earlier. You and Shaft.ed swooped at Jitsu and then at Oman. Together. So I'm seeing a possible tie. But at the same time nothing you did with Oman is beyond the pail. I just wonder, do you think Oman is scummy Oman this game or lazy Oman?

3) CKD: I wasn't champing at the bit for CKD's blood. It was a compromise choice. There was a sound case against him though, and I have given my reasons for supporting it. If you disagree with any of them, feel free to take them up with me.

There were a few mild things one could poooosssibly see as scumtells from CKD but to call it a sound case is a bit much. I really find votes there odd. But you were more ambivalent than expected. (It may seem scummy but my post really was done with a lazy amount of research. Its why I didn't vote you. I wanted to start discussion.) You really wanted Jitsu. Still feel the same way today? I need to re-read your PbPs more carefully. With time going I'm getting down to that.

4) PBP: Well done for ignoring all my recent meta history here, especially since it was alluded to in my and other peoples' posts. I have recently been trying to avoid PBPing, due to the Vollkan Effect, but I have decided to shift back because Vollkan without PBP does not work (see Dante's In Fresno).

No idea what your meta history is. Town works harder than scum. That's all I know. Thanks for the heads up. Besides this game do you have others to show me that validate this?

[cicero]

Also - sorry about calling things dumb. Too rude. Apologies.

[cicero]

@Vollkan - Of course Mafia WIFOM. They WIFOM all the time. The question is whether the WIFOM in this case makes sense. The WIFOM that mafia killed Simenon to cast a shadow on his suspects vs one of his suspects actually killing him makes sense. But what you said about you being alive specifically to confound your own NK meta doesn't make sense at all, I don't think.

[cicero]

Actually, right now I am more concerned why BillyTwilight is trying to reason out in the thread who the potential Vig might be, but I didn't want to drop this line of questioning before it was fully played out.

Billy Twilight. Why you tryna narrow down who the vig might be?

[cicero]

Request Prod on Billy Twilight

[cicero]

I'm trying to find

time

motivation for a re-read to come up with new things to say. And clearly I'm not the only one. But this looks like it might become the second day Billy Twilight will have lurked through. I really don't necessarily want to lynch him for it because I know what it's like to have a new born and he is probably simply overwhelmed but

Mod did he answer his prod?Or are you doing one of those 'whether he did or not is none of our beeswax cuz lurking is ok strategy' things?

[cicero]

cicero asked me to narrow that group of players down to the one I most likely thought was the vig.

I did?

[cicero]

My top 3 has been stated already. I stand by them.

He said with arms crossed tightly and a bottom lip stuck out.

[cicero]

I think Shaft.ed and Fonz should look past each other, imho.

[cicero]

Translation: Hi, i'm scum with shaft.ed, and I desperately want Fonz to back off so that Jitsu, and not my buddy, gets lynched.

No. I'm worried about CKD part two while scum floats by not contributing again. An Erg0 lynch would be tech. Come on in. The water's warm and inviting.

[cicero]

Likewise Erg0. Likewise everybody.

[cicero]

Once again. Fonz and Shaft.ed should look past each other.

[cicero]

Vollkan, Ergo, Billy Twilight. Outside shot at Kison.

Lotsa love.

Cicero

[cicero]

I actually had a dream that Cicero was scum in this game... Razz

Well then it must be true! (I don't know whether to be flattered or disturbed by the fact that Fonz is having me in his dreams. Do I look like my avatar and talk in a funny voice? I must know.)

For the more record I'm more into the idea that Fonz is town than that Shaft.ed is. His play has certainly been sloppy. I just fear that its sloppiness being exploited rather than scumminess.

Since Erg0 is more clearly scum we should just lynch him instead.

[cicero]

I could go for a Vollkan lynch in a heartbeat.

[cicero]

I'm going beyond activity to gut but activity plays a role for sure. Erg0 is Candyman. Vollkan is the lack of scumhunting except for that weird Jitsu case that raided everyone's neck hair. Billy Twilight I could drop in and out and need to read more to feel sure of one way or t'other.

[cicero]

I wouldnt call Vollkan a lurker. And Kison/Shanba was lurkier and yet is fourth. I don't restrict myself. Oman is lurky and should probably be higher for me maybe... some of his observations on me felt astute though so I wonder. Plus, Oman is good scum and bad town I think and he feels not so good in this game.

Anyway you are scum so we should just lynch you. The rest is neither here nor there.

[cicero]

What else could there possibly be, Erg0? You've done nothing but not be here and then show up when someone mentions you.

[cicero]

Candyman is an old bad horror movie about a killer who comes when you stand in front of the mirror and say his name. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0103919/

I use it to describe players who aren't posting in the thread but once you mention them they quickly respond, proving that they are astutely following but are hanging back otherwise.

I give things weird names. It's how I am.

[cicero]

I can't speak to the "other people mentioning me" thing, but I was in and out site-wide for 2 or 3 weeks there due to work commitments and general fatigue. To quote a completed example, I nearly contributed to a no lynch at LyLo in Space Monkeys 2 because I completely missed the set deadline (Stoofer extended it). Look at my other ongoing games and you'll see the same pattern over that time period. I'm not making excuses, but that's not a valid reason to find me scummy.

I'm not accusing you of just lurking. I'm accusing you of following the thread intently and popping in when you are mentioned. Yet otherwise you have seemed fairly incurious. I don't feel at all that you are scratching your head and trying to figure out this puzzle.

And now your top suspects scream "I'm there for you wagons!"

Top 3:
1. shaft.ed
2. Jitsu
3. everybody else (ok, not everybody else, but there are probably 3 people tied for third with semi-realised reasoning)

For once my top suspects seem to coincide with those of most other people. Fonz's view on Jitsu/shaft.ed corresponds with mine, and BT is looking good to me at this moment in time.

Very little independent analysis. You are just on board for the two lynches that seem most probably. So in addition to Candymaning you are playing a go with the flow game. Which you yourself acknowledge is against type for you. But what is also against type for you is being scum since you had quite a long run as town. You say you're an against the grain player and now here you are just at the service of who at least the Fonz has suggested are the two top wagon possibilities and who you say coincide with most other people.

[cicero]

EDIT: I'm noticing a constant autowriting effect where I type the word "probable" and when I re-read my post I have written "probably". Maybe I have a tumor. I don't know. But for future reference I do indeed no of the existence of the word "probable" and don't think "the most probably" is a reasonable phrase.

[cicero]

EDWOP: No=know. /fail

I'll stop impersonating Xtoxm now.

We only have three days everybody

[cicero]

Oman - you drunk or did your keyboard eat your fingers?

I don't think you could sum the Vollkan case up quite that neatly. But I do think he is scum in this game. I've given the reasons before and he's answered them but I'm not persuaded to ignore my gut on this one.

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote Vollkan

I approve of this wagon.

[cicero]

Happy scumday Cicero. How reliable is your candyman tell?

Thanks. I haven't done a statistical analysis. But it very much described Pooky's play in Lost Boys and I couldn't get anyone to listen. Want to know how that ended?

Or we could, ya know... lynch someone for more than just lurking.

Rewards lurking.

Neither case is based on just lurking though. Erg0 and Vollkan both have had other stuff going on. But both of them have been the players who at different times rang my scum alarm.

[cicero]

No. Sorry Erg0. I should be clear. I was wrong about the Shaft.ed Jitsu point and it does weaken the case. That part was of course rebolstering my earlier suspicion of you. So it would not make sense to suddenly stop suspecting you altogether. But my opinion of your alignment is back to being unbolstered by that point.

[cicero]

Why does Vollkan keep asking questions he ought reasonably be able to answer himself?

[cicero]

Sure there's something for you to do. Go over to Vollkan's house and wake him up.

It's 5:30am there, no? Why the heck are

you

up?

[cicero]

more like 15

[cicero]

OK, so a priest, a mullah and a rabbi walk into a bar...

[cicero]

[cicero]

Hurry up and vote!!!

[cicero]

Ah. OK. Good.

I got scared.

[cicero]

With only four to lynch, it would be FAR better for us to stick to FOS's in the early stage of the day. Please and thank you. No one should "grow a pair and vote why don't you" and that's why.

[cicero]

Fonz - what JUST happened to you in my mini game? We have three weeks. I'm not saying never vote. But I will be *pissed* if we quicklynch someone like cubsfan did in my game.

By the way, that having been said, your Oman point makes a lot of sense.

I really don't think Fonz was bussing Shaft.ed the whole day. Why would someone actively bus their godfather? He's a powerful asset. And Fonz's reason for getting off shaft.ed makes sense too. *I* should be more suspicious than Fonz from yesterday. I helped to move the damn wagon off Shaft.ed and on to Vollkan. Not that Vollkan was engaged enough to help himself... but still.

[cicero]

BillyTwilight, Oman and Erg0 are the three people still alive from the seven person CKD wagon. that also included

Adel, Simenon, Vollkan

and

Shaft.ed

[cicero]

I'm V/LA for the August long weekend. Knowing me I'll check in anyway... but no promises.

[cicero]

Incidentally, I'm not ready to vote yet, but I think it might be dumb NOT to lynch Oman at this point. He's in the three suspicions of Shaft.ed, he was Shaft.ed's random vote and small focus at the beginning of day one (scum like to do that), his case on me was thoroughly artificial and he hasn't really demonstrated any hunger to scumhunt. Just the opposite. Maybe I've been thinking past the obvious too much in this game. Might be time to stop.

I'd like other people's thoughts on this plz.

[cicero]

However, I wonder a bit why Billy is singling out Cicero for subscribing to the "one in three" theory. Sure, Cicero mentioned it initially,

Just a point of clarification. Where did people get the idea that the one in three point was mine originally? It was Fonz's. I agreed that it was a good point.

[cicero]

Do you do one in three when you're scum?

Well, I *have* done it. I wouldn't say I always would. I've only been scum a handful of times. It depends on how the game was going though I think. I would want to shield my scumbuddy in case I died. At the same time, I'd mostly want to just look like an honest townie so it would more depend on the flow of the game.

[cicero]

The town were smart enough to forget the WIFOM and move on....hint.

I wouldn't press the case based on that alone, Oman. After Vollkan I'm in no rush for another mislynch.

I have a deep suspicion against someone that I can only explain as "gut" and one rather unreliable scumtell.

Who is your hunch about based on what rather unreliable scumtell?

[cicero]

Kison.

Kison is a very good person to be suspecting in my opinion. But *why*? And if so why aren't you pressing him?

[cicero]

Incidentally,

I'm not ready to vote yet

, but I

think

it

might

be dumb NOT to lynch Oman at this point. He's in the three suspicions of Shaft.ed, he was Shaft.ed's random vote and small focus at the beginning of day one (scum like to do that),

his case on me was thoroughly artificial and he hasn't really demonstrated any hunger to scumhunt. Just the opposite.

Maybe

I've been thinking past the obvious too much in this game.

Might

be time to stop.

I'd like other people's thoughts on this plz.

Hey Billy, I've used pretty colors to make the parts of that post that you ignored stand out for you.

First pay attention to the dark red which is an intrical part of the point. Then look at the red.

-------------------------

Oman's point on Kison gives me pause though. Obviously its an unreliable scumtell. what's interesting is that I wonder if that the way Oman presented it doesn't feel like something scum would do. It feels like an honest expression of gut. Unfortunately I've been doing a better job of finding people unscummy than scummy in this game which is bad so I don't want to go overboard, but again

I'd like to know what everyone else thinks.

[cicero]

I was more saying that he needs more scrutiny. I have lingering left over suspicion from Shanba and more a fear of him not getting quite enough attention.

[cicero]

Incidentally,

I'm not ready to vote yet

, but I

think

it

might

be dumb NOT to lynch Oman at this point. He's in the three suspicions of Shaft.ed, he was Shaft.ed's random vote and small focus at the beginning of day one (scum like to do that),

his case on me was thoroughly artificial and he hasn't really demonstrated any hunger to scumhunt. Just the opposite.

Maybe

I've been thinking past the obvious too much in this game.

Might

be time to stop.

I'd like other people's thoughts on this plz.

Hey Billy, I've used pretty colors to make the parts of that post that you ignored stand out for you.

First pay attention to the dark red which is an intrical part of the point. Then look at the red.

The dark red is a lame reason to find someone's lynch inevitable, and the light red is hedging. What exactly about this am I supposed to find less scummy?

1. I'm sorry. Why exactly is that a lame reason? I'd like your reasoning.

2. The point of my post was to demonstrate that BT was misrepresenting what I said and the way that I said it. He can now come back and say "oh no. you were scummy for different reasons but what it looks like to me is tautology of scumminess when in fact in the first place BT misrepresented my words. That was my point.

3. Sometimes I act definitively. Sometimes I muse. This was musing because my focus on Vollkan and desire to put pressure on people like him who have a reputation as being truly exemplary players who are hard to see as scum was making me ignore some of the more obvious scummy behavior. Oman's behavior has been scummy. Just because I listed it all in a short post doesn't make it any less true. We might be stupid not to lynch Oman after he has scumtell connections to Shaft.ed, hasn't scumhunted much at all and when he did bother to do any work he cobbled together a case on me that most others thought was crap. How exactly is me saying this problematic? I really don't get it but I would LOVE for someone to explain it to me. Seriously. Asserting that its "lame" doesn't cut the Dijon mustard.

4. Qualification: I am having trouble getting through a full re-read right now. I really want to look at all of your interactions with Shaft.ed, not just Shaft.ed's interaction with each of you as well as any other issues. I just need to get through it all which I will hopefully do in the next few days.

[cicero]

Re-reads in Isolation: BillyTwilight (not because he's accusing me. Because he's top on the drop down menu)


vote for CK based on tells that I disagree with.

Opposes lynching lurker.

BT in 16:

Oman, shaft.ed, and volkan

Oman, shaft.ed, and volkan were much less forward about finding Adel scummy, but allowed for suspicion of Adel to be in their play and something they could return to later.

I'd say there is probably at least one mafioso in the above group. Right now my bet is Oman. I'll give a more thorough analysis of each of these players later this weekend/early next week.

Cicero, you asked me which of volkan/Oman I would find scummiest, my answer right now is Oman. Volkan's player analysis from the end of day 1 were confused enough that I feel he is probably town in the same boat I'm in. Again, a more careful read will help me understand this better, but I don't have time this evening.

So he wants Oman but when I start suspecting Oman more BT backs off.

Also recall BTs - "That's where the vig is" comment. Followed by some rather poor logic on the usefulness of Vigs. Poor because it doesn't excuse zeroing in on who the vig would be. What is always interesting in such a case though, is, if BT was scum he would be less likely to put that kernal out in public since he could just communicate it to his scumbuddies during night talk. Only other time I've seen a scum do this was in Adel's Nightmare which had the odd mechanic of no night talking for the scum.

Can anyone think of a true motivation for scum to say something like this in the thread?

It's possible that he himself is an SK or Vig doing the shooting himself... or what he says is true. He really does think its best to lower feasible vigs. But that still seems awfully odd to me.

Billytwilight never directly engages with Shaft.ed while alive and offers no direct opinion on his scumminess or lack thereof. Discussions of Shaft.ed are primarily about Jitsu's suspicions of Shaft.ed.

His Post 24 posts a scumdar.

Not a lot of solid analysis but a few good points.

Some questions re 24:

1. Oman's play is sloppy for scum and not trying hard to win for scum. Is it not the same for town?

2. Erg0 is declared "town". Why? No reason given

His 25

Here is BT's first reason for me as scum:

Cicero has the least amount of headbutting with shaft.ed of anyone in the game. And I don't buy that shaft.ed had to put one of his mafia members in his suspect list, which cicero has taken from Fonzy and ran with a little on this page.

Interestingly enough, BT has zero interaction with Shaft.ed and actually serves as something of a defense of Shaft.ed against Jitsu. Very worth noting.

shaft.ed continual pining about shanba's absence reads off to me, so there might be something there. I will say that Kison's interaction with shaft.ed reads a lot more genuinely, but isn't as strong as shaft.ed's interaction with others.

Billytwilight can you expand on this? I'm not sure I understand this point.

[cicero]

ERGO:

Random votes Ergo just like Shaft.ed.

Generally lurky like crazy but building up some aggression in day one.

Felt very much like he did a candyman presence early on, posting when he or his absence was made the subject of a post and otherwise playing quiet.

Play adversely affected by moving and job stress though.

Day One voted Curiouskarmadog. His reason is decent. CKDs intimation of having a role was dumb.

Here's the entirety of his day one contribution of suspicions:

point - I'm having trouble organising things in my head. From my first read of the posts I'm catching up on, ckd looks a little scummy (his defence to Adel was particularly troublesome), Adel and Sim look ok, and I'm not sure about cicero, vollkan, Fonz and shaft.ed yet. Jitsu seems slightly off from what I saw of him in vollkan's game, but that's a back-of-the-mind thing right now. Oman's "I'm not voting" post was definitely different for him, and I'm not sure if this is mitigated by the fact that he pointed this out himself.

The next day he moves to put Shaft.ed and Jitsu at the front of the line. Keeps on Shaft.ed in a way that's reasonable under the circumstances.

His 30th post

Top 3:
1. shaft.ed
2. Jitsu
3. everybody else (ok, not everybody else, but there are probably 3 people tied for third with semi-realised reasoning) [/quot]

Good questions to Fonz.

Points out the doctor Jeep tell on Jitsu.

Does a whole re-read in his 53. Now he finds Jitsu townier. Good reasonable summaries on all the players.

Overall my re-read makes me thing I may have been wrong about Erg0 - or he's really stepped up his game. For the moment I'm putting him back in the townier column for now.

[cicero]

Billy: the quote should close after the word "reasons".

It isn't in any way a policy lynch. And I'm still indecisive on Oman. Like I said his Kison point had a weird air of honesty about it. But the general point of my post is "are we maybe looking past the obvious here?" as an honest reading should reveal.

So... are we maybe looking past the obvious here?

Also note - every time you enumerate my Oman as scum points you leave something out. You did it again in your last post. Care to tell me what it was?

[cicero]

Cicero is not remotely insincere. If you want to help point out where you think I'm being insincere, I'll be happy to clarify things.

Cicero had a busy weekend and finds Jitsu's posts to be a lot to swim through hence why my analysis of all players isnt done.

[cicero]

Gut usually has a cause. You should try to find it. You were right about Shaft.ed but you are wrong this time.

Where does your gut stand on Oman, Kison, Billy and Jitsu? Who would be your number three?

Why Erg0? I am insincere (apparently). What do you see with him?

[cicero]

OK. so I'm clear, you're preferred lynch then is Oman with Erg0 and Cicero being places you'd be willing to move at deadline if necessary. Not that Erg0 and Cicero have vaulted over Oman? Correct? I think I had misunderstood.

[cicero]

re-read your your post 961. You misspoke.

I will vote either Erg0 or Cicero at deadline. There's a lot of gut here, but Cicero feels insincere.

Glad we cleared that up.

[cicero]

Yeah. I'd deadline vote you, Oman. The second person on the list of likely to be lynched is me right now though and I know I'm town.

Sorry for not getting my analysis of all players done. Real life has been interrupting me regularly.

My gut is the same as Oman's re: Kison. It's only gut though.

[cicero]

This would be such a good game if we could all get off our collective asses and have these conversations when it isn't 24 hours before deadline.

Jitsu, I can tell you what he's asking. Read it in the context of the discussion. He isn't requesting that I vote for him.

[cicero]

I'm next on the list of most suspected and we are running out of time so...

I'm the cop. I have an innocent result on Fonz from night one and an innocent result from Shaft.ed night two (what fun!). My sanity is unconfirmed but in a normal mini I'd venture to guess that I am.

[cicero]

oh and I should qualify: Innocent comes back as "Not Mafia". so it doesn't preclude that third party idea. But unless that's Oman I'm not sure we should bank on it existing. And Oman's vig kills feel like, well, vig kills, no?

[cicero]

Vote Billytwilight

Not OMGUS. Gut.

[cicero]

Counterthought: Mafia roleblocker.

[cicero]

Wait. That doesn't matter that much. I was thinking mafia doctor. Being stupid today.

[cicero]

Really? cool. Why? Please include the Why Them reasons and the Why Not You reasons.

[cicero]

Cop, vigilante, something that stopped the scum nightkill (doctor?) and mod-confirmed masons...

I am at least a little incredulous.

[cicero]

I see that Billy has given me the ok, so I'll claim: we're mod-confirmed masons.

What does this mean? See how, where, when?

[cicero]

So BT gave you the go ahead via PM between 3:47 and 3:55 but still hasn't posted in the thread himself all day. Gotcha.

[cicero]

Ehh, my replies specifically say "Not Mafia" instead of innocent. So I think everyone could still be lynchable with evidence of an SK. I wouldn't be so quick to call Guardian a terrible mod in this case if it turns out true.

How does an SK in this game match up with the whole third faction likely not being normal thing, one wonders.

[cicero]

I'm gonna be curious to hear from Kison and Jitsu now.

[cicero]

I have to run out for the evening. May be back on in a few hours maybe not.

BT - Fonz was my night one investigation as I said. Shaft.ed was my night two.

[cicero]

Where's Jitsu at?

[cicero]

I am here. I am going over the scenarios in my head to decide

whether

what

I should claim

or not

.

Fixed?

[cicero]

Well deadline isnt far away and we've players from as far away as England and Australia. How long do you need?

[cicero]

Oman, in your world then set up is:

Cop
Vigilante
Two masons
No Doctor - Scum simply didn't send in a kill?

[cicero]

So are you confirming there that that is what you believe the setup to be? or not?

Or are you saying you think it is cop, vig, mason pair AND doc vs. mafia because mafia has a roleblocker?

[cicero]

Unvote. Vote: Oman

[cicero]

Sorry, server time, as I understand it is Central time. So deadline is midnight Central time.

[cicero]

Wrong thread. Sorry. Delete the above.

[cicero]

Sorry I havent posted much yet in aftergame. Im vacationing and time on the computer is somewhat less than usual. Anyway, thanks for a good game everybody. My main comment on this game is that it was lackluster. Once Adel and Simenon died it seemed like all the air got sucked out of the room. I didn't have the motivation to cattle prod the game like I've been known to do, especially since as cop I was trying very hard not to be too much of a lightning rod. But weeks would go by with barely any posting and then everything got done three days before deadline. What do you attribute this to? Are we burning out as players? Or is it a function of the fact that the game took place in the summer when we were all out away from our screens? Or is it simply that the vanilla townies all died and everyone else was trying to avoid being lightning rods too?

[cicero]

Guardian, I love that you made the SK bluehost. Hilarious. Also I think the addition of roleblocking to the SK was a great touch. One of those simple innovations that made me go "now why is it that I would have never thought of doing that?"

Great job. And thanks for modding us.