Mini 594 - Satin Doll Showdown - {GAME OVER}

[eldarad]

Gosh, this is exciting isn't it?
I've just skimmed this page, and there is nothing that requires my immediate attention, so I'm going to go back to the start and begin reading.

[eldarad]

OK, some questions first. Apologies if you've already been asked/answered them, just humour me. Those people who had to read my first post in PYP2 can relax - I'm not going to produce a 3000 word post any time soon.

Mizzy

How could you seriously believe that there was/is any other option for Today's lynch other than Glork or Tar?
Post 413 is breathtaking in it's non-committallness. (Although, God, MafiaSSk basically admits to lurking in post 414. Sigh.) I have no idea how someone, confronted with 2 mutually-exclusive claims, can decide to vote for someone completely unrelated. Can you explain?

Hascow

You were voting for MafiaSSK at the end of Day 1 when deadline hit. Why?
In particular, why

weren't

you on the Elmo wagon?

Also note that in Farscape Tarhalindur self-hammered as a townie. So I do appreciate you not putting Tar at L-1, since I haven't posted my thoughts yet, and I could totally see Tarcop self-hammering to reveal his role and prove his investigation result.

Glork

So, we have an interesting question here, don't we. Is a breadcrumb still a breadcrumb after you have denied it's existence in-thread?

How do you reconcile

So you find it unusual that I, a guy, claim to be a hot female in a strip-club themed game, and you think there's zero chance that I was breadcrumbing?

with

I do "what you were getting at," but I think you're confusing some harmless pre-game banter for fishing and subsequently making a DD out of an A.

Now, I see your answer to Incognito, and it gives me pause:

Glork replies immediately with some damage control, citing it as "harmless pre-game banter" but makes a play on "mountains out of molehills" using cup sizes -- an indicator to anybody who is paying really close attention.

...but then we get back to my first question. Once you've denied its existence, is it still a breadcrumb? How can a breadcrumb you have denied existing then be used to support your claim later?

Tar

Where the hell are you?
Do you still think Ether is linked to Glork? She was the first to follow your guilty result with a vote. Does that reinforce the Glork-Ether link or disprove it?

I can't actually think of many meaningful questions for Tar (the only really relevant one is "Are you

really

a cop? Honestly?"), but there are plenty in-thread already that he hasn't answered. Not that I hold any hope of him actually answering them, if Farscape is an accurate reflection of his posting style/frequency.

[eldarad]

Here is where I am.

1) Either Glork or Tar is scum. That is to say, either Glork's role is actually a scum role, regardless of whether it is called an exotic dancer or not; or Tar isn't a cop and is trying to take Glorktown out on a 1 for 1 trade.

Currently I am heavily leaning towards Glork as scum.

2) Hascow's actions at the end of Day 1 seem a bit weird, and I don't like his answer to my question. (Or rather, I don't like his answer to the question that I was leading up to, but Glork got in first)

...but knowing the potential of you being lynched instead, and knowing your own alignment, why wouldn't you put an insurance vote on Elmo?

1) it was unnecessary, as he had more votes earlier than I did

So what you're saying is that you were happy with an Elmo lynch, but did not want to be seen to support it openly. I find the difference between outright support and acquiescence to be nil in that situation, and that fact that you chose to hide your support for the Elmo lynch by simply letting it happen rather than place a vote makes me very suspicious.

3) At present, I believe Mizzy to be scum regardless of Glork's/Tar's alignment.

4) I agree with Tar's assertion earlier that there seems to be a link between Ether and Glork. If Glork turns out to be scum, then I think Ether is scum with him.

For all other players, I think that my read of them is irrelevant at this point, since the Glork/Tar lynch is the only game in town.

I didn't read that post at the time. But I read it later. It was very useful at that point. Feel free to do it again.

I do fully understand what you are saying. But I think the present situation is different in several ways. Also, that post (link, for people who have no idea what I'm talking about) took me ages to write and wasn't particuarly enjoyable. So I'm trying a different method.

[eldarad]

bleh, just lost my post by closing notepad before I'd finished.
I'll rewrite it tonight.

[eldarad]

I still think Glork is more likely to be scum than Tar. I just don't see what Tarscum has to gain from fakeclaiming cop so soon. Whereas Glorkscum - given a guilty result on himself - has a very strong incentive to survive the Day at the expense of Tar since mislynching the cop is a pretty good result for someone who must have thought they were a dead man walking immediately after the claim.
On the other side, Glorktown would recognise a 1 for 1 trade for a Tarscum as a pretty good trade. I don't see any indication that Glork acknowledges this.

I also feel a little uneasy at some of the things Glork has said. I think the best lies have an element of truth, and I suspect there is a lot of truth in what Glork has told us Today - but only in order to better sell us the lies.

The biggest thing for me is the role claim itself. The flavour that Glork revealed in response to Incog's questioning sounded rather a lot like a

prostitute

rather than a exotic dancer - particuarly when Glork described how his role would keep someone 'out of trouble.'

...the afore-mentioned VIP Lounge. I'm sure you can guess what *ahem* "doesn't happen" in the VIP Lounge that takes up my patrons' ENTIRE NIGHTS.

To me, this sounds like Glork is a mafia RB, rather than a town Jailkeeper.

On top of that, I don't like the idea of relying on a breadcrumb that you have denied existed.

That's really all I have - Tar's claim just doesn't make sense to me if he is scum, whereas Glork's claim seems plausible if he is scum.
I don't fully understand how Tar is now at L-2 with two players openly supporting his lynch but holding off on their votes.
This is a little late, but even so:

vote Glork

[eldarad]

Checking in.
I don't have a problem with the cow-wagon. More thoughts as I get them.

[eldarad]

eldarad, "Glorktown would recognise a 1 for 1 trade for a Tarscum as a pretty good trade" - why?

Because trading scum for townies on a 1 for 1 basis will result in a town win given that the town outnumber the scum...There didn't seem to be any recognition or acknowledgement from Glork that having a scum basically sacrifice himself in order to get Glork lynched would - at worst - still result in a good trade for the town.

~~~
PokerFace, do you have anything based on

this game

that makes you believe I am scum?
Do you have any reason to believe that MafiaSSK's assertion that his lurking helps him to find scum (because scum tend to try to lynch lurkers more than townies do) was false? Why or why not?

~~~
I strongly disliked hascow's actions at the end of Day 1 with respect to the Elmo wagon, and his answers on Day 2 really didn't help his cause. There were already a substantial number of votes on hascow when I checked in Today and whilst I have no problem with it, it is a super-speedy wagon. There has been no rush to hammer, which makes me somewhat happier.

Mizzy, I asked you a question earlier but I guess it clashed with RL stuff. I'll ask it again:
How could you seriously believe that there was any other option for Yesterday's lynch other than Glork or Tar?
Post 413 is breathtaking in it's non-committallness. I have no idea how someone, confronted with 2 mutually-exclusive claims, can decide to vote for someone completely unrelated. Can you explain?

[eldarad]

That is not at all what I was saying. Has there ever been a lynch that looked like it was going to happen yet you disagreed with and you couldn't really do anything about?

OK. But my problem is how you have positioned yourself as *not* being in favour of the Elmo lynch, and yet acted in the knowledge that even without your vote Elmo was going to get lynched.
Since you know your alignment but only think you know Elmo's surely you should favour an Elmo-lynch over a cow-lynch? And this is not a false choice - one of you was going to get lynched.
You picked the Elmo-lynch, but you did it in a sneaky underhanded way.

4) I agree with Tar's assertion earlier that there seems to be a link between Ether and Glork. If Glork turns out to be scum, then I think Ether is scum with him.

Hmm, interesting. What do you think now about Ether?

Heh. Well.
I don't think Ether is linked to Glork anymore.
I thought that Ether's early Glork-vote following the Tar claim was her jumping off a sinking ship. She then spent some time positioning herself for an unvote when Tar was looking shaky, which reinforced in my mind the Ether-Glork pairing.
So I was wrong on that one. It's still possible that she was following her scumbuddy Tar's 'guilty' result to appear like a good townie should, but it's somewhat less likely than the Glork link was.
So yeah, no Caffhate at the moment.

I'm waiting for Mizzy to see my question, so I'll delay my Mizzy comments until after she answers.

Anyways, I still think eldarad/SSK is scummy, and SSK claiming that scum will go after lurkers more than town, or whatever it was that he said, is ridiculous. Also note that he flipped scum in that game.

You may think SSK is wrong when he says that lurker-hunters tend to be scum, but do you think he was sincere in his opinion?
Why do you think SSK flipping scum in a different game means that he is scum in this one?

[eldarad]

I can't really answer in a way that you would fully understand. The closest I can come to is that you didn't need me for a lynch (had plenty of voters) and I saw that the person I felt should be lynched probably would be (Tar) so I started scumhunting for another scummer.

For the moment, I don't think I'd be willing to vote for either Tar or Glork based on this alone because Tar's claim was scummy as hell but it was a cop claim that says Glork's scum, so I need to keep all of that in mind. I would rather look at a different target for now, such as SSK.

How do you reconcile these two statements?

[eldarad]

Don't they kind of say the same thing? Or are you reading more into them than you should be?

What the hell is that supposed to mean?

Post 413 says that you're kinda undecided between Tar and Glork - Tar's claim looks scummy, but then he is claiming to have a guilty on Glork so that's making you think twice.

Post 640 says that you thought Tar was scum, but you were confident that he was going to be lynched without you. So you voted for someone completely different.

Is that an accurate interpretation of your posts?
How do you explain the inconsistency between the two?
Since when have you started deliberately not voting people you think are scum because you think other people will vote for them anyway?

[eldarad]

If you know me at all, you'll know that I am a very cautious player. When major stuff goes down in a game, I form some pretty strong opinions but don't talk about or act upon them unless I'm sure.

Yeah OK. But what made you think that a vote was warranted on SSK when it wasn't warranted on Tar?
I'm especially surprised now that you have reminded me how rarely you vote for people unless you are certain. So how come you voted SSK in order to 'scumhunt'? Are you saying that you are certain that I am scum?

Sorry Mizzy, but it just doesn't stack up.

vote Mizzy

[eldarad]

I am taken aback by the reaction to my stunningly insightful clearing of Eldarad.

I'm much more bothered by your clearing of Mizzy. But then, you aren't the only person who has said something very similar.
Are you happy with Mizzy's explanation for her vote on me rather than the competing claims Yesterday? How so?

[eldarad]

I'm quite happy for Ether to wait a bit before she starts explaining. I don't know exactly what she thinks she's seen (or else I wouldn't do it...) and I'm not that bothered if she reveals it.

But given that I'm not under suspicion - apart from a dodgy vote from Hascow - there's really no point going out of the way to clear me based on meta.

Mizzy, if you don't like this talk, fine. What do you want to talk about?

[eldarad]

I strongly dislike Mizzy's reaction, but I don't really want to push it any further at the moment.
Sigh.

unvote

I'd be happyish with a Hascow lynch and/or a PokerFace lynch - particuarly after Erg0's analysis which showed quite a strong PF-Tar link - but I worry that this just seems too easy...

I'm overdue an analysis post - I'll aim to post one this weekend.

[eldarad]

Hmm. I thought I knew what Ether was hinting at, but I have no clue what PokerFace is referring to... Anyway, it's still not important unless my towniness is genuinely questioned, so I'm going to skip over it. Maybe we can talk about it Day 4.

~~~

I'd like to know why eldarad thinks my vote on him is "dodgy".

Your whole basis for your vote was post 638. You never mentioned anything about me before then (although there was some sniping at MafiaSSK early on), so that post is the entirety of your case on me.

So what you're saying is that you were happy with an Elmo lynch, but did not want to be seen to support it openly. I find the difference between outright support and acquiescence to be nil in that situation, and that fact that you chose to hide your support for the Elmo lynch by simply letting it happen rather than place a vote makes me very suspicious.

That is not at all what I was saying. Has there ever been a lynch that looked like it was going to happen yet you disagreed with and you couldn't really do anything about?
That's what that was for me. I wasn't really happy with an Elmo lynch either, as the wagon grew far too quickly.
This twisting of my words and putting words in my mouth is very suspicious to me.

Sorry, but that's exactly what you were saying. Whatever you thought of the Elmo wagon, you preferred it to your own lynch. You didn't attempt to stop the Elmo wagon, and you allowed it to happen without committing to it yourself.
Accusing me of "twisting your words" is just...empty. In addition, Glork agreed with what I was saying, and he's guaranteed town. So even if you think I'm wrong, I don't see how you can question my sincerity.

Anyways, I still think eldarad/SSK is scummy, and SSK claiming that scum will go after lurkers more than town, or whatever it was that he said, is ridiculous. Also note that he flipped scum in that game.

The issue isn't whether MafiaSSK was wrong - the issue is whether he was sincere. How does that further SSK's scum agenda?
The fact that MafiaSSK flipped scum in the other game doesn't mean anything.

Your whole reasoning for voting me was hollow. You just did it to be consistent with your SSKhate from earlier, but you had nothing on me, and you still don't.

Unless Hascow has something really important to say, the upshot of all that is that I'm happy with a cowlynch Today.

vote Hascow

Mizzy, I could see a Hascow-PokerFace pairing. Other people I could see as scum? Most people, actually. I reckon everyone here can play as scum well, which makes we worried about how easy this game seems to be so far.

~~~
I won't be at home for the next week (due to my international accountancy lifestyle ) so I'll have limited access.

[eldarad]

Vote: ergo

Why?

[eldarad]

Actually, that was a really good answer.

Yeah, I agree...

[eldarad]

So, I decided to go back and look at the competing Elmo-Hascow wagons on Day 1.

Green text

are my additional thoughts. (I only added the formatting after I wrote the post because it was hard to read when I previewed it. I may have missed a tag somewhere.)

The Day 1 Hascow wagon starts with Incog reacting to Cow's "I can't remember the 4th person I was suspcious of" & "Oh yeah, vote MafiaSSK"
Erg0 puts vote 2 on the wagon saying he could see Hascow-MafiaSSK was a scumgroup.

Presumably, this makes Hascow's vote distancing. But given how I know the alignment of both Hascow and MafiaSSK, I know this is to completely wrong.

Glork adds to the Hascow wagon.

Not a peep out of anyone about Elmo until post 202 when Tar

scum

votes for him to pressure Elmo into posting content.
Mizzy votes for Patrick. Then Patrick and Mizzy have a big debate.

I disliked Mizzy's attack on Patrick then, and I still dislike it now.

At post 221 Scot adds his vote to the Hascow wagon.

hasdgfas - 4 (Ether, Erg0, Glork, scotmany12)

At this point, we have 2 confirmed townies (Ether and Glork) + Erg0 and Scot on the townie wagon.

Post 232, Hascow attacks Tar's vote for Elmo and responds to some of his attackers.
PokerFace comes back with the results of his meta'ing. The only comment that strikes me is this one:

Tar has stopped going after Erg0 at the moment to put some pressure on Elmo which is a little off considering he is not doing too much either.

...which implies a Tar-Erg0 link.
Incog adds another vote to pressurise Elmo into voting following a prod.

Which looks opportunistic, IMO

Before this game began, Patrick and I had a conversation about how we both were hoping to not draw scum roles in this game. We joked around about the possibility of all three of me, Patrick, and Ether being the scum team and how horrible that would be since we all enjoy town roles much better than scum roles. 42% was the probability that all three of us would be aligned on the side of the town due to random distribution of roles if we assume a three-person scum team [(3/4) x (3/4) x (3/4)]. So my IGMEOY was in relation to that - the fact that it would mathematically be more probable for at least one of us to be aligned on the side of the scum as opposed to all three of us being town.

OK. So...Patrick is town. Ether is town. Incognito is ???

Incognito is also "inclined to believe" Hascow's vanilla claim. Unvotes and votes for Glork.

But he was voting for Elmo at the time, not Hascow. WTF?

Erg0 unvotes, bringing the Hascow wagon down to 3 votes.
<Kinda skimmed over the next page. Deadline was looming large>
Erg0 votes for Tar.

This is now somewhat more interesting now that PokerFace pointed out the Erg0-Tar link.

Tar's "aggressive townie" post
Mizzy unvotes
PokerFace votes Elmo,

for lack of content more than anything else it seems.

11th vote count

hasdgfas - 3 (Ether, Glork, scotmany12)
Elmo - 2 (Tarhalindur, PokerFace)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch,

or 4 at deadline

Current deadline:

Approximately 26 hours from this post.

The Elmo wagon only happens in the last 24 hours:

Patrick places a deadline vote on Elmo.
Erg0 places a 4th vote on Elmo.
Glork believes the Elmo wagon is "chockful of opportunism" -

Given the people on that wagon, the only unconfirmed ones are PokerFace and Erg0. I'm pretty happy with the idea 2 townies (Patrick and PokerFace) + 2 scum (Tar and Erg0) on the townie wagon, with the third scum (Incog) putting his vote elsewhere to avoid linkage.

Mizzy does another of her voting-for-a-completely-irrelevant-people-just-before-a-lynch posts
Elmo claims vanilla and votes Hascow

Note that Incog is on neither of the wagons. (He is voting for Glork)

Elmo is deadline lynched.

From this, I'm calling a Erg0-Incognito scumteam.

~~~
So, following the analysis of the Day 1 wagons, I've decided to extend my analysis to look at Incog's voting.

Random/non-random vote for Erg0
vote Glork
vote Mizzy
vote Elmo, as pressure to post
vote Glork
Confirm vote Glork towards the end of Day 1 deadline
Day 2, votes Tar
votes Glork following the Tar cop claim
unvotes because he doesn't want a quicklynch
votes Glork (24 hours after the unvote)
<supports the flavour for Tar's FBI-but-still-a-normal-cop claim>
votes Tar immediately after Tar's confession. Hascow pulls him up on this. Now that Hascow is confirmed town, I think we should revisit this.
Day 3, votes Hascow

In truth, there's not a lot from this, except the quick Tar hammer.
The Elmo pressure-vote does look like opportunism, although he pulls out prior to deadline (but then, if I'm right, both Day 1 wagons were on townies. So Incog is just making sure he does not have townie blood on his hands)

I would like to lynch Incognito Today. However, since I'm now pretty confident of an Incog-Erg0 scumteam I'm happy to vote

vote Erg0

because it is the current live bandwagon.

[eldarad]

You said there wasn't alot on incognito and yet you would like to lynch him today. In general there is alot more analysis in your last post pretaining to Erg0 being scum than incognito, but those last words just seem so out of place. Is there some other reason you would prefer to lynch incognito today? And if so why aren't you going to try and start a wagon on him this early on day 4?

The "not a lot" was from the vote analysis, that I did as a separate exercise after looking at the Day 1 wagon. There was enough from the wagon analysis for me to be happier voting Incog. But I'll take an Erg0 lynch as well.

[eldarad]

Incog, so why are you not voting Erg0?

[eldarad]

Right at this moment it's because doing so would place him at L-1. I feel like we could get a bit more out of this day, and I don't want to place him so close to lynch yet.

So who do you think would quickhammer Erg0 if you put Erg0 at L-1?
Why do you think they would quicklynch so soon?

[eldarad]

Mizzy, what do you think? Do you think Erg0 is scummy?
Who is at the top of your scumdar at the moment?

[eldarad]

Well this is odd. The other day I though that elderad was going to come at me today because he thought there was a conection between me and Tar in post #670 and now he makes a post that refers to me as town.

It happens. Sometimes I change my mind, sometimes I do it to wrong-foot the mafia. In this case, it was a bit of both. I'm pretty happy with your play on Day 1 now that I have analysed it in detail.

So, erm, are we done talking already?!

PokerFace, do you have any more thoughts on Erg0? Also, still waiting for Mizzy to find some time to make some comments.

[eldarad]

As for Eldarad and Mizzy, I didn't really "get" their discussion on day 3. My own read on them puts them in my second tier of suspicion.

What didn't you "get"?
Didn't you find it odd that Mizzy didn't vote for either Tar or Glork?
Do you see the inconsistency I point out in post 641, or am I fabricating a case out of thin air?

Also, you haven't said anything about me really - since your deadscum analysis pre-dates my replacing in. So how am I on your second-tier of suspicion?

[eldarad]

Grr, Mizzy's attack on Erg0 looks hypocritical. But I don't think Mizzy is scum anymore.

Anyway, I do need to look at Erg0's posts Today and respond. I'll do so this weekend (maybe even today)

[eldarad]

Erg0,
your vote was on PokerFace Yesterday too, and there definitely seemed to be an overwhelming consensus Yesterday that PokerFace looked scummy. Why do you think that is?
Don't you find it odd that so many people seemed to completely agree on who the scum was (ie Hascow and PokerFace)?
What do you make of that, and what do you think it says about PokerFace's alignment now that Hascow is confirmed town?

Given the complete lack of interest that my vote provoked, there was no way that I was going to be able to push a Tar wagon in 17 hours, especially with the gathering of votes on Elmo in the meantime.

I recognise that the Elmo vote was a deadline vote. From your perspective looking back at the Elmo wagon, I deduce that you think 2 scum were on the Elmo wagon (Tar + PF), correct?
So what do you think the other scum was doing?

Do you think Incog's Day 1 vote on Elmo was a legitimate pressure vote or something else?

Regarding your position on my list, SSK's posts after Tar's claim were somewhat scummy in my eyes. He starts out suspicious of Glork, FoSes him for "paying attention to lurkers", then switches to saying that Glork is town, apparently as a result of a discussion on lurker theory. As someone said yesterday, it looks like he wanted to vote for Glork but couldn't find a good enough excuse to do so.

Ether said pretty much the opposite IIRC. She thought that the fact that MafiaSSK had to be convinced every step of the way suggested that he was a townie. Do you think that argument has validity?

~~~

There's enough breadcrumbing in here to make some Shake'n'Bake, sheesh. If you want to know why I didn't vote Tar or Glork, then go re-read me and see if you see it. I know at least one person did.

I actually think that Mizzy should just claim and have it over and done with. It's not like she hasn't already told us her role.

[eldarad]

PF, I think Erg0 and Incog are scum. It does not matter which one we lynch first. So I'll take the one has the most support since we need a majority to lynch.

You shouldn't be voting for Erg0 unless you are certain he is scum, ie your biggest suspect. It feels like you are just settling for another lynch, and I don't think your reasons are good enough to do that.

You say this like it is a fact, when it is only your opinion. Who are you to tell me how I should use my vote?
As it is, I'm using my vote to help lynch someone that I believe to be scum. It also someone that you believe to be scum. So what's your problem?

are all possible scum pairs pending how you would view elderad's attack on incognito and Erg0. Is he distancing from Incognito while forcing a mislynch, or is he bussing and setting up mislynch for tomorrow when the town will have a better view of him and his suspicions for the bussing. And also the possibily that I am not reading correctly into his actions and he is correct about Incog and Erg0. I will think more about him into the next day.

Incog thinks that Erg0 is scum too. How come I'm the corner-stone of this scumhunt whilst Incog is completely ignored?

~~~
I don't really see what is hidden about Mizzy's role anymore. Everyone is tip-toeing around it,

but we all know

, so who are we hiding it from?

[eldarad]

Not convinced by the claim, it doesn't strike me as at all believeable.

[eldarad]

Erg0, I'm already voting for you. (Hence no vote in post 799...)

[eldarad]

This isn't really the time or place to discuss your playstyles.

Although I never FoS.

[eldarad]

Checking in.

Well, you guys can read PokerFace all you want. I'm rereading scot.

[eldarad]

So. El and el, how's that reread coming along?

Meh, not even started yet...This is number 2 on my list

[eldarad]

Well, we have 8 days to lynch someone. Should be plenty of time.

I think scot's reaction to Tar's cop claim suggests strongly that he didn't investigate Tar Night 1, since his first question was to ask whether Tar was confirmed sane - this suggests Scot was assessing the Tar claim from a game balance perspective rather than as a cop with a guilty.
Other than that I'm drawing a blank.

PokerFace, post 723 is me making a case for an Erg0-Incog scumteam. An idea that I still feel holds weight Today. I can't see anything else in #829 that I can answer.
It seems that you have very definite views on when and how scum will and won't bus each other, and when scum will vote for the same person. And these views form the basis of your suspicion. I disagree with your views, and I'm somewhat suspect that - again - your case is not based on things happening in the game, but more to do with your interpretation of mafia game theory.

On #649:
MafiaSSK was lurking
I am not lurking
MafiaSSK and I share the same role PM
Therefore MafiaSSK's lurking is related to his playstyle, not his alignment.

~~~
I still call a Tar-Erg0-Incog scumteam. PF is second choice for a lynch Today by default.

[eldarad]

If you still think I am town why am I second choice by default? you kinda attack me for that last post when it was a defence from incognito. What changed your mind? Incognito posting aprove of me getting lynched. Changing your opinion to go with the flow are you Elderad? Explain further why you thought i was town yesterday and why I would be a default lynch?

I didn't say you were the default lynch. Given that I am far, far, far more confident that Elmo and Mizzy are town that makes you 3rd in terms of townieness - which makes you 2nd in terms of scumminess.

I am willing to consider some people like elmo and mizzy as confirmed town unlike Erg0 and elderad who pursued Mizzy when Either suggested re-thinking things. Cow was after mizzy too then so I wonder if elderad was pushing on mizzy in light of what cow was saying then.

I expressed suspicion of Mizzy with my first (proper) post after replacing in and I was fairly consistent with my criticism of Mizzy. Even after the penny dropped I still don't like some of the things Mizzy did, and has continued to do, even if I am pretty confident that she is town.

I think Elderad partially wants to prepare to take on incognito now Ahead of day6 in hopes he can get support from me before I'm lynched. look at him lurk and not bring his case on incognito up again while I'm threaten before a lynch. A lynch on someone he think/thought was town. You want to allow people to lynch someone you believed was town? Did something change about your view of me because of other today Elderad?

What? Have I missed something here? You're threatened with a lynch are you? As I see it, one person put their vote on you immediately after the Day started. That may be signficant at deadline, but only if we don't get a majority outright. Which makes we wonder about Incog's motivation for that vote.
But yeah. My current plan is lynch Incog Today. If the game doesn't end, then we lynch PokerFace Tomorrow unless some new information comes to light.

~~~
There's nothing more I can say on #649 that I haven't already said.
You may think MafiaSSK is wrong with his lurking strategy, but the question is "was he sincere?" You're the one who was doing all the meta-gaming.
If you don't think MafiaSSK was sincere, why do you think Ether was wrong in her assessment?

It's interesting that in your last post you accused me of lurking. That's the first time you've done that - and it was in response to me addressing your "MafiaSSK as lurker scum" theory.

I already explained why I went with an Erg0 lynch rather than a Incog lynch.
I felt that Erg0 and Incog were both scum and that the best chance of lynching one of the people I believed to be scum was to vote for Erg0. Your problem with that seems to be that you just don't like it. I can't help that.

I have no problem with a massclaim, and there is already a majority in favour. You're up first.

~~~

Also, if you can find flavour in the first post then I'm pretty sure that scum could find it too.

Well yeah. This was in response to you supporting Tar's claim somewhat on the basis of the flavour. Personally, I'm taking the flavour with a pinch of salt since Glork's flavour doesn't really make sense. I didn't take flavour into account at all when I weighed up the competing Tar-Glork claims.

[eldarad]

Incog, OK I didn't see what you were referring to. But even now, I don't really buy it.
If I recall correctly, he was having a conversation with you about how convincing the flavour of Tar's role was. So he was talking to you and talking about "scum" in the abstract (although we now know that both he and Tar were scum).
I don't think you can take that and claim that it clears you. I'm not even that convinced that you can call it a slip.

[eldarad]

I'm a vanilla townie.

PokerFace, whilst I share MafiaSSK's role PM, I am not privy to how his thought process works, nor do I share his playstyle preferences. If you wanted to know why MafiaSSK voted the way he did on Day 1 you should have asked him at the time.
Why wait until now to bring it up? How do you expect me to answer for MafiaSSK in the way you require?

Have you ever voted someone for pressure and told them to scum hunt. They then scumhunt. You unvote them. Then they do not continue to scumhunt. Thats pretty much what SSK was doing.

You haven't explained how this logic indicates that MafiaSSK is scum given that:
MafiaSSK was lurking
I am not lurking
MafiaSSK and I share the same role PM
Therefore MafiaSSK's lurking is related to his playstyle, not his alignment.

It also seems disingenious to accuse MafiaSSK of lurking when he freely admitted to it.

It was niot meant to be conveyed as just a response for about SSK. The point I'm trying to make is that you are not fully pushing for incognito's lynch right now. By saying you want to lynch incognito without giving a case you are just fruitless preparing and pushing a lynch that can't go through today.

I explained Yesterday that I believe the remaining scum was Erg0-Incog. I don't see why you want me to repeat it.

If you were town and truly believed incognito to be scum, then there would be no second choice by default.

That's a stupid thing to say. It's only true if I know who the scum are.
Again, your case is based on an assertion of what "a townie would do" without showing how or why that is the case, and without acknowledging that different ways of playing exist.
Besides which, this point is spurious as I have made my position perfectly clear - I think Incog is scum. I want to lynch Incog Today. I certainly do not envisage hammering PokerFace Today. However, if we lynch Incog and the game doesn't end, PokerFace is the only viable lynch Tomorrow.

[eldarad]

If we're looking for slips, I think post 27 is something of a slip on Incog's part. Or rather, the explanation of what post 27 meant is perhaps more revealing than Incog intended.
In Post 252 Incog explains that:

Before this game began, Patrick and I had a conversation about how we both were hoping to not draw scum roles in this game. We joked around about the possibility of all three of me, Patrick, and Ether being the scum team and how horrible that would be since we all enjoy town roles much better than scum roles. 42% was the probability that all three of us would be aligned on the side of the town due to random distribution of roles if we assume a three-person scum team [(3/4) x (3/4) x (3/4)]. So my IGMEOY was in relation to that - the fact that it would mathematically be more probable for at least one of us to be aligned on the side of the scum as opposed to all three of us being town.

My hunch is that the explanation is more revealing now than it was at the time. Now that we know Patrick and Ether are town, it changes the character of this post somewhat. I reckon this is Incog-scum using the in-joke to try to signal to Patrick and Ether that "he is a townie too".
It just doesn't wash with me.

The second major part of my suspicion of Incog is indeed his avoidance of the competing wagons. I think what I said in post 723 still holds true

Glork believes the Elmo wagon is "chockful of opportunism" - Given the people on that wagon, the only unconfirmed ones are PokerFace and Erg0.

I'm pretty happy with the idea 2 townies (Patrick and PokerFace) + 2 scum (Tar and Erg0) on the townie wagon, with the third scum (Incog) putting his vote elsewhere to avoid linkage.

~~~
Incog, why did you vote so early Today? What was the PF vote intended to achieve?

~~~
PokerFace, I can't answer for MafiaSSK, because I am not him. I think it is unreasonable for you to demand that I tell you what MafiaSSK was thinking at the time.
If someone is lurking

and is then replaced

I don't see how you can point to the lurking and call it a scumtell when the replacement isn't lurking.

Also SSK's playstyle is related to his alignment which in turn is related to yours.

This can't be true. If playstyle was linked to alignment I would be playing exactly the same way as MafiaSSK was playing. In addition, all vanilla townies would play the same way because their role PMs - and therefore their playstyle - would be identical.

He has only used this style in this game and one other he says. And he was scum in the other game. Scum in other game where he used this style gives good chance he is scum trying to use that lurking style to protect himself here. Do the math I can't believe you don't see what I'm getting at there.

OK. SSK was scum in the other game where he used a similar playstyle.
In that other game, he referred to this game as an example of a game where he had used the style before. So, in the other game he was scum and he used this game

as a defence

. Why would he do that if he knew that he would eventually flip as scum? The only reason to reference this game is to demonstrate to the other game's players "look, I play this way as town"

I am also puzzled as to why you think SSK would have two completely distinct playstyles - a "townie" playstyle and a "scum" playstyle. Don't you think that would make him VERY easy to read?

You can't ignore stuff from someone a replacement replaced. Do you expect to get a clean slate Elderad?

I was quite specific. I can't read SSK's mind. So when you ask me "why did SSK do that?" I can't answer any better than you can.

You are not activly pushing incognito's lynch today and you weren't doing it well enough yesterday either. You didn't vote him and I don't believe you successfully made him look like scum to anyone.

I fully intended to vote for Incog Today, and still do so. What is it with you telling me how to use my vote?! When I'm ready I'll vote.

[eldarad]

vote Incognito

Well I can't say I see that as a slip. Looks like they are just joking about the odds. I suppose that could be a way of warming up to Patrick and Ether but not a slip.

Why don't you let Incog answer for himself, hmm? It's interesting that you can see the possibility that it is Incog buddying up to two townies though.

If you can't answer for him then you can answer from an objective point of view can't you? Can you think of any town reason to vote somebody you think is town? Yes or No?

What? You want a list of hypothetical reasons? I can do that but it would be completely pointless. For example
1) SSK wasn't paying much attention to this game
2) SSK was seeing if anyone would try to form a wagon on Erg0 since there was already a vote there
3) SSK thought Erg0 was scum but didn't want to say so outright to avoid being NK'ed

But without knowing the *actual* reason, what's the point of this exercise?

Playstyle is linked to player and then linked to alignment.

How is playstyle linked to alignment?

Your opinion that you quoted just then contrasts sharply with your attack on me using that information from the other game. And then, when I use the same information to show how your attack is without merit ("he used this game as a defence") you say how we shouldn't be discussing it at all.
If you think that you shouldn't be using it as part of a case on me. You'll notice that I have not commented on it at all before now.

~~~
I'm not hammering PokerFace Today.

[eldarad]

The alternative to lynching PF for you guys I guess could be deciding which of the two (me or eldarad) is more likely to be scum and lynching one of us today. If we lynch wrong, then the situation can be evaluated tomorrow and a decision could be made about whether to believe PF or to believe the person who was not lynched today.

I agree with this if people are fairly happy with PokerFace's claim.

From my POV, if PokerFace is town then if I hammer the town loses since we lose 3 townies - 2 from the lynch plus a NK - which leaves 1 scum vs 1 townie at dawn.

My next step - depending on how Elmo and Mizzy reacted - was likely going to be:
"I'm not hammering PokerFace. If you think that makes me scum, lynch me instead"

If we lynch Incog Today and I'm still alive Tomorrow I'll hammer PF. I promise.
If Incog is willing to commit to the same then I'll be happy regardless of whether Incog or I get lynched Today.

[eldarad]

In fact, unless Mizzy or Elmo are scum, that guarantees a town win.

1) Lynch me Today, Tomorrow Incog hammers PokerFace;
2) Lynch Incog Today, Tomorrow I hammer PokerFace.

If one of us refuses to hammer PokerFace, just lynch us instead.

If PokerFace is lying scum then we will hammer him Tomorrow and win.
If PokerFace is telling the truth and one of {eldarad, Incog} are scum, then the scum will be killed either by lynching Today or by hammering PokerFace Tomorrow (or, more likely, refusing to hammer the Supersaint - so then everyone votes for the person refusing to hammer)

Have I missed something here?

[eldarad]

I still think you're being thick, eldarad, but meh.

Heh. Actually, your reaction to this makes me think that PokerFace is the scum rather than you.
But I don't see the point of taking the chance of hammering PokerFace Today if he's telling the truth.

[eldarad]

So...PokerFace, assuming we believe everything you've just said: who do you think is the last scum?

unvote

[eldarad]

I think PokerFace is lying scum.
His latest two posts suggest that he claimed Supersaint to save himself. He only unclaimed once I showed how the town were guaranteed to win by hammering PokerFace Tomorrow. He miscalculated slightly in that a townie would refuse to hammer because it could result in an auto-loss, but by waiting a Day we could turn that into a auto-win.

Scum wouldn't benefit from such a fake claim as this since they would still be around for a lynching tomorrow.

True, scum wouldn't benefit once we formed the plan. But initially, it may have seemed a good idea - you gamble being able to lynch me or Incog Tomorrow by saying that we have avoided hammering you.
You obviously thought that you were going to be lynched Today if nothing changed, so you tried to change things.

I wonder why noboddy consiered the option of what happens if I get night killed? Elmo and Elderad both over looked that one and I'm not sure why. incog kinda overlooked it too I think, but not as much as the others did. the went much further into the math of the auto win.

Do you think that Elmo is scum? Do you think that Mizzy is scum?
If not, how does scum NK'ing you Tonight change things?

[eldarad]

No I don't think Elmo or Mizzy is scum. Said that about 50 times today i think.

I just wanted to check that you hadn't changed your mind.
So, we're ALL on the same page - there are 2 innocents and 3 non-cleared players, of which 1 is scum.

Town lynching one of Incognito or Elderad today could have hit scum. And then Scum nking me would make a scum Elderad or a scum Incognito have to undertake the impossible task or trying to get Elmo or Mizzy lynched on Day 6.

And you're concerned about this situation arising?! That Incogscum or Eldscum would go into the last Day as the only unconfirmed player and might win?
You're a joke. If you'd tried to tell me that Elmo or Mizzy *might* be scum then at least your logic would be consistent. I'd actually buy the argument that Mizzy and Elmo aren't *cleared* as such.

Do you want to comment on Incog's day 2 persistance and push on Glork then hammer of Tar? Also why aren't you voting me right now Elderad if you think I'm scum?

I was waiting for you to answer the question I asked you, that you answered just now.
And no, I don't feel like answering your questions right now. Die scum.

vote PokerFace

[eldarad]

You're not a Supersaint, so the "lynch Incog/Eld Today, force the other to hammer Incog Tomorrow" plan doesn't work anymore. Which is why I'm voting for you now.

Think you could answer my question now? Voting me now looks like you're trying to lynch me quickly in order to avoid the qiuestions and just get to tomorrow. we got til monday so let's try and get something out of me thinks.

Nope.
Lynching you quickly would gain me nothing. I'd still end up Tomorrow in lylo with no prospect of winning.
It's pretty simple really. You botched your fake claim, and in the process effectively cleared the only two other players who could have been scum. Then you self-voted.
I'm happy to unvote so you can put your self-vote back on if you wish. And then I'll hammer you. Otherwise, we can sit here until Mizzy or Elmo log on, and then they can hammer you.

[eldarad]

At this point, I think lying to save oneself would be a town AND scum thing to do. He was more than willing to kill himself, though, and I can't see scum being willing to do that.

Eld, you're next on my scumlist and I really don't like your #895.

Who was willing to kill themselves? PokerFace?
If you didn't notice, Incog AND me both volunteered to kill ourselves Today in order to

guarantee

a town win.
PokerFace just self-voted. And then unvoted. How is that a townie thing to do?
I still don't fully understand what PokerFace is saying. it just makes no sense.

And, honestly Mizzy, I don't see anything wrong with #895. I don't mind being #2 on your scumlist as long as we lynch PF Today.

[eldarad]

Eld:

If he is town then allowing himself to die is anti-town so unvoting would be a pro-town thing to do. You really ARE being thick. And just because the two of you volunteered to do it doesn't mean jack shit. You didn't do it so for all we know it was a scum tactic.

Why don't we then just lynch PF and let Eld hammer him. Two birds, one stone, everyone is happy. Then if we don't win, Elmo and I know who to kill tomorrow.

Did you skip a page?!
I will happily hammer PF Today. I just said so.
How was I to know that PF was fake claiming to be a Supersaint? I came up with a plan that would guarantee a town win, killing me in the process.
How is that a scum tactic?
Incog agreed with the plan.
PokerFace pulled out of the plan by admitting that he wasn't a Supersaint.

If he hadn't unclaimed he'd have lost because the town would have been guaranteed to win.

[eldarad]

But the other two suspects - me and Incog - both agreed to participate in the plan that would guarantee a town win. Why would we do that if one of us was scum?

Scum would have no benefit from the actions I'm taking fake claiming or really being supersaint.

You already thought you were going to be lynched Today. In that context, it's not unheard of for scum to claim Bomb to put townies off hammering.
So the benefit was you got one last chance Tomorrow to lynch a townie.
For one thing, I couldn't possibly hammer you Today when you claimed Supersaint as it would result in a auto-loss. But you could equally claim that I didn't hammer because I was scum.
The claim gave you a handful of 'outs' from what would otherwise be a certain lynch.

Plus, all this fluff you're coming out with about your meta, and how the plan worked before, and how IRC is different, and how you'd hate to have this result staining your record, and whatever else, isn't convincing me that you're a townie.

[eldarad]

Just so you know, I'm currently writing a post up. But you guys keeping adding more stuff to the thread
Trying to organise my thoughts into a sensible order.

[eldarad]

A scummer would of course agree to hammer and then simply just allow someone else to do it for them or give some sort of lame excuse. Or hope that he didn't actually have to hammer. You said you WOULD hammer and now you're acting like that proves you are town. Actually hammering would have proved it. Agreeing to hammer doesn't mean anything.

Mizzy, not hammering Tomorrow would have proved that I was scum. Look:

In fact, unless Mizzy or Elmo are scum, that guarantees a town win.

1) Lynch me Today, Tomorrow Incog hammers PokerFace;
2) Lynch Incog Today, Tomorrow I hammer PokerFace.

If one of us refuses to hammer PokerFace, just lynch us instead.

If PokerFace is lying scum then we will hammer him Tomorrow and win.
If PokerFace is telling the truth and one of {eldarad, Incog} are scum, then the scum will be killed either by lynching Today or by hammering PokerFace Tomorrow (

or, more likely, refusing to hammer the Supersaint - so then everyone votes for the person refusing to hammer

)

See? If you don't believe me, listen to Elmo.

~~~

You even claim that you realized that if we didn't lynch the scum today, the scum would have to basically NK you tonight and attempt to go up against Elmo and Mizzy tomorrow in order to stand a chance. If you're really town, then isn't that what you would have wanted from this gambit in the first place? I mean, both me and eldarad were content with dying today - if you truly believed that either me or eldarad (namely eldarad since you've repeatedly insisted that he's scum) was the final scum, then you would have been happy to continue on with this gambit realizing that if eldarad (your top scum choice) got lynched today, we would be dealing with a town win anyway and not even have to get to tomorrow, no?

Absolutely. And PokerFace hasn't got an answer for this apart from "oh, the mafia might not have NK'ed me" but he can't adequately explain why the mafia would refuse to NK him, and then - on top of that - turn up the next Day and hammer him. (This is my first game with Incog, and yet I'd bet my mortgage¹ that he wouldn't give up in this way. And you only need to read a game where I am lynched to see that I never go down without a fight. For a player who is so keen on meta-gaming the players in this game, it's a glaring oversight.)
It seems to me that PokerFace's gambit would have achieved exactly what he should have wanted it to achieve. So it's VERY odd that he backed out.

On the flip side, eldarad, if you really had a scum read on me and a town read of PF therefore making you believe his SS claim, then shouldn't you of all people have realized that a hypothetical Incog-scum's best move would have been to NK PokerFace in order to avoid an auto-lose situation? I thought PF was scum fake-claiming SS, so I figured he would definitely be around tomorrow if we went through with the plan but if you're town and you believed he was a supersaint, then shouldn't you have expected him to die tonight if I didn't get lynched today?

If the scum NK'ed PokerFace Tonight, that would leave two innocents and a scum. That's pretty much the best result we could possibly hope for short of lynching scum Today.
If PokerFace was scum, we'd catch him Tomorrow. For what it's worth, I did believe his claim. Forcing you (Incog) to commit to the plan in public Today was designed to remove any leeway you may have had in your NK choice - if you had said that you weren't convinced the plan would work, that would give you wiggle-room Tomorrow in a {Elmo or Mizzy}, PokerFace, Incog endgame. Making you publicly nail your colours to the mast ahead of time was useful.

So I'm basically torn between believe the reactions i just got and the notions I've had throughout the day. I can't decide and must admit I feel biased

So, even with the results of your gambit, you don't want to commit one way or the other? What was the point then?

~~~

basically post #881 looks like scum reaction because he refused to hammer and did not come up with the gauratnee plan first.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is one of the benefits that the fake supersaint claim gives to the scum - an avenue to attack me for refusing to hammer.
Incog was right on the money with #882

The way I see it is if PF is scum fake-claiming SS and eldarad refuses to hammer, then PF might choose to not self-hammer to try and draw a pardon from Mizzy to live another day as she's left wondering whether or not he's telling the truth or if he's lying about his role. And with eldarad insisting that I'm scum,

I could see him refusing to hammer which makes this a pretty good scum fake-claim at this point.

Bleh. If PF is town and telling the truth, then eldarad has to be scum, and he'll still use his "insistence" that I'm scum as reason to not want to hammer PF. The alternative to lynching PF for you guys I guess could be deciding which of the two (me or eldarad) is more likely to be scum and lynching one of us today. If we lynch wrong, then the situation can be evaluated tomorrow and a decision could be made about whether to believe PF or to believe the person who was not lynched today.

So, PokerFace, do you still insist that a fake Supersaint claim would have absolutely

no

benefit for scum?

My "I'm not hammering PokerFace Today" sentiment changed subtly from pre-claim to post-claim.

I think Incog is scum. I want to lynch Incog Today. I certainly do not envisage hammering PokerFace Today. However, if we lynch Incog and the game doesn't end, PokerFace is the only viable lynch Tomorrow.

This was my position pre-claim. It is basically "I think Incog is scum, therefore I won't be voting for PokerFace Today."

Post-claim my position was the same, but the reasoning was slightly different.
I noticed the stuff PokerFace quoted in #880 (about wanting me, specifically, to hammer him) so that when he claimed Supersaint I wasn't surprised.
Having claimed Supersaint in what I thought was a plausible manner, I could not hammer PokerFace:

From my POV, if PokerFace is town then if I hammer the town loses since we lose 3 townies - 2 from the lynch plus a NK - which leaves 1 scum vs 1 townie at dawn.

It's not simply a case of "I think Incog is more scummy that PF" it's "if Incog is the last scum, and I hammer PokerFace-townie-supersaint, we lose instantly"
PokerFace, how does #880 look like a scum reaction given this reasoning?

Post #887 Elderad says he thinks your town which is a huge flipflop to make considering the time between #881 and #887 is very short. that all happened in under an hour. 1:18pm to 1:50pm in my time zone.

Funny how you only focus on the time between the posts and not the posts themselves.

Heh. Actually, your reaction to this makes me think that PokerFace is the scum rather than you.
But I don't see the point of taking the chance of hammering PokerFace Today if he's telling the truth.

Do you think that this reasoning is invalid?
Do you think that Incog's reaction to your Supersaint claim was a scummy reaction?
If you think Incog's reaction was townie (which, judging from your previous posts, I believe that you do) how is my switch strange?

I did not predict things well enough in this run through of the gambit.

I believe this statement absolutely and without reservation.

---

¹ Disclaimer: I don't actually have a mortgage. If I did, I wouldn't use it to bet on things.

[eldarad]

I'm waiting for some input from Elmo, he hasn't posted nearly enough for my taste.

Anyway, PF is not getting a full pardon from me. He did enough scummy things that made me suspect him in the first place and that has not gone away.

Did we ever finish our mass claim?

OK.

I don't understand this paragraph at all.

I don't think Elmo claimed. Is that important?

[eldarad]

Mizzy, do you think PokerFace is in fact a SuperSaint?
Because that's, like, a quadruple bluff, or something.

Now that PokerFace has 'unclaimed' Supersaint, I am more than happy to hammer him. Just say the word and I'll unvote, you can put your vote down and I will hammer.

[eldarad]

It is too dangerous for myself or Elmo to hammer, so if you still want to, then I will put him at -1L and you can hammer, but if he comes up town, Eld, you are the first person I want dead tomorrow.

What? Why?

[eldarad]

I won't be around at deadline, 10pm EST is 2am here. If you want me to hammer, it will have to be in the next hour. If not, I'll put my vote back on.

unvote

Mizzy, why do you think I'm so scummy? Why is it dangerous for you to hammer PokerFace?

[eldarad]

Oh nvm he unvoted.

huh, yeah you're right I guess. Still, it's much more theatrical, isn't it?

[eldarad]

vote PokerFace

Mizzy, I still have no clue what you're thinking - your last few posts have really confused me. Since you may be NK'ed Tonight - since you're considered to be an innocent by everyone - this may be your last chance.

[eldarad]

I would like to propose a motion:
1) on conclusion of this game, we force PokerFace to put a suitable reference into his sig indicating his contrition for that horrible play
2) we lynch Elmo.

All in favour?

[eldarad]

Interesting proposition. When I saw your name as a reply to this thread, I figured I'd come in with your vote on me already with either Elmo readying the hammer if he did happen to be the last scum or Elmo checking in and not hammering thereby leading me to believe that you are indeed the last scum. What gave you the change of heart about me from pre-PF yesterday into today, eldarad?

In part, precisely because this Day seems to have been set up so as to limit our (ie my and Incog's) actions, made me wonder

why

the Day was framed in those terms.

Pre-PokerFace, I had you nailed as scum as part of an Erg0 pairing. Your reaction to the claim was pro-town. Elmo only got excited about the claim when he got to do some maths about it.

Then, I wonder about how the mafia chose its NK last Night. Of course it's all laden with WIFOM, but Incogscum could make their life easier by NK'ing Elmo - Mizzy would have happily lynched me Yesterday given half a chance. Also, Elmoscum only has one choice for the NK (Mizzy) whereas Incogscum would have to choose between the two. So that's a factor in my mind, even if I wouldn't want to construct a case around it.

Quite; I'd be interested in hearing the stated explanation, too. You seem to have moved very readily from pushing a case against Incognito for all of yesterday to firmly wanting to lynch me today, when yesterday you apparently agreed to follow through a plan which would relied upon me being pro-town.

I didn't "apparently agree" - I agreed. What reasons do you have for suggesting that my agreement was not sincere?

I'd note that I've been saying Incognito looks town to me, and it'd be much easier for ScumEldarad to try and get him to vote me than vice versa; I don't see any other basis for that change in your position. Or is that another epiphany?

Do you regard yourself as "cleared"?
All I see is someone who was lynched on Day 1, and had Mizzy use her governor role to save you.
For Elmoscum to be plausible, we have to believe that Tar and Erg0 were prepared to bus Elmo on Day 1. I don't find that to be a huge leap of faith.

It just seems like Elmo has been skating through the game as an 'innocent' without anyone questioning why he is seen in that light, or else other people have demanded more immediate attention and Elmo has just quietly sailed through.

What, specifically, is your opinion of PokerFace's play yesterday? (Beyond just 'horrible', I mean.)

Just horrendous.
Specifically, the gambit PokerFace ran was pretty useless in this instance - scum would refuse to hammer because it would result in an autoloss, town would also refuse to hammer because it would result in an autoloss. So it was impossible to determine someone's alignment by seeing how they reacted to the demand to hammer.
It seems like PokerFace was worried that the last mafia would 'give up' and hammer him despite thinking he was a Supersaint. (I guess it would also be possible for the mafia to see through the claim and go along with the plan, gambling on the Supersaint claim being fake.)
Notwithstanding the difference in pace, I would suggest that the quality of players in this game is somewhat superior to the players who PF tried that gambit on successfully on IRC.
Overall, I think PokerFace harmed the town's chances more than he helped it.

[eldarad]

vote Elmo

[eldarad]

Proof that I'm town: I'm not hammering.

Noted.

[eldarad]

eldarad, when you reacted to my plan, how likely (in terms of percentages or something) did you think it was that I would be chosen as the Day 5 lynch as opposed to you?

I thought it was more likely that I would be lynched first as part of the plan. I can't give you a percentage but with PokerFace and Elmo expressing a desire to lynch me first, I was fairly comfortable with being the first lynch. I was pretty much resigned to being lynched if the plan went ahead.

881 is basically just a flat "I'm not hammering PF today", which seems quite geared towards self-preservation; 883 is more in the vein of following the plan.

#881 is avoiding an autoloss - where I believed PokerFace's SS claim and so if I hammered we would lose. It was also a direct answer to the repeated demand from PokerFace ("I want eldarad to hammer me" - "no")
#883 was following a plan given that we could avoid the autoloss scenario entirely and replace it with a near auto-win. It also seemed to make the game somewhat simpler (either PokerFace is lying, or not). Incog's reaction to the PF claim strongly suggested he was town, I knew I was town. That meant that it became far more likely that PokerFace was lying scum, and so the plan was even more powerful.
However, PF was not scum. That doesn't diminish the townie reaction of Incog. That means Elmo is the only person left who could be scum.

Now, PokerFace had been making hints towards eldarad before, saying that he thought he should be the hammer vote; eldarad had probably picked up on it, and had more time to think about what was going on that the timestamps indicate. I know I'd be wondering why PF was making those comments, especially when he's making overtures towards me placing the hammer.

Yes. I picked up on PokerFace's comments earlier. I didn't fully think through 'the plan' until Incog suggested it in #882.

My opinion did change quickly - Incog's reaction to the claim made me flip completely from [PF-town, Incog-scum] to [PF-scum, Incog-town]. It is simply inconceivable that Incog is scum at this point.
Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever is left - no matter how implausible - is the truth.

[eldarad]

SATIN DOLL SHOWDOWN ENDS WITH A TOWN VICTORY. CONGRATULATIONS!

Yay!

eldarad, on the other hand, feels natural. I've read through his scum games, and I've read through the town ones and this feels like eldarad-town. Hands down.

Damn. I didn't think I was so easy to read

Well then I agree with half of eldarad's proposal -- the lynching Elmo part. As for the other half, I think PokerFace's gambit was actually QUITE good as it was ONE of the major differences between a town win and a scum one.

Huh. I guess you're right, in that it is the only thing that differentiated me (and Incog) from Elmo.

This was a great game. I'm glad I replaced in.

[eldarad]

Incog's role PMs for the mafia included the link to the quicktopic thread:
http://www.quicktopic.com/41/H/dpQDwehgLi3

@Elderad, out of curiosity and comedy what did you want me to add to me sig at the start of the day?

I think now is a good time for me to shut up and just be grateful that we won.