Mini 594 - Satin Doll Showdown - {GAME OVER}

[Tarhalindur]

/confirm

[Tarhalindur]

Vote: hasdfasqwhateverhisnameis

There is no cow level.

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded (stupid finals), time to try to get this game moving.

I find Erg0's post 68 and Ether's post 73 to be scummy. Ether's 73 reads to me as a veiled attack on Erg0 (by claiming to find something scummy using weak language and backtracking immediately thereafter). Erg0's 78, however, is worse - it looks to me like Erg0's mainly summarizing other peoples' posts and discussing theory without actually showing much personal insight. That looks like IIoA to me (Tar Standard Tell), and at this point in the game it's enough to earn my vote.

Unvote, Vote: Erg0, FoS: Ether

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded; I honestly haven't had much to say up until now.

Since there seem to be outstanding questions...

I assume you mean my post 68, in which case you apparently forgot to read the last paragraph.

Actually, that last paragraph was the scummiest - the first sentence is mafia theory (IIoA), and the second sentence looks like a veiled attack on Glork (especially since it seems to be a bit of a non-sequitur). I could be misinterpreting you, however: could you please show how the comment about "early FoS'es on weak evidence" justifies your comment about Glork making you uneasy? (At the very least, give some post numbers.)

/prodded (stupid finals), time to try to get this game moving.

I find Erg0's post 68 and Ether's post 73 to be scummy. Ether's 73 reads to me as a veiled attack on Erg0 (by claiming to find something scummy using weak language and backtracking immediately thereafter). Erg0's 78, however, is worse - it looks to me like Erg0's mainly summarizing other peoples' posts and discussing theory without actually showing much personal insight. That looks like IIoA to me (Tar Standard Tell), and at this point in the game it's enough to earn my vote.
r[/b]

Why is discussing theory without showing person insight scummy?

Take a look at the Tarhalindur Standard Tells page. It has the explanation you seek.

<snipped for irrelevance>

I'm having less success finding a place to put a serious vote. Tarhalindur's post 75 strikes me as about a mile off, but having played with him before I'm not sure I could call that scummy (which sounds crazy yes). Still, Tarhalindur, I thought my post immediately following Erg0's said almost the exact same thing contentwise, how come that didn't even get a mention? I even remember you attacking me in Farscape Mafia for repeating what someone else said almost exactly in one post.

<snipped for irrelevance>

Farscape was ages ago, and an abject lesson in just how bad I was at scumhunting at the time. Your 69 did not set off alarm bells because you were explaining the reasons for your actions in that post; likewise, Erg0 either failed to explain his own reasoning in 68 or did so very poorly. In particular, the first post of Erg0's 68 is primarily summarizing another player's reasoning, which is classic IIoA.

I'd say I have a protown read from both glork and ether. I took ether's early attack on Glork as protown. It might just be mainly gut for Glork, but he hasn't done anything that has appeared scummy in my eye.

Quick update on my thoughts: After looking back over the few posts Ether has made so far, I get a pro-town read of her. She's acting (so far) like I would expect an Ethertown to act. Granted, we're only on page 4. But I don't think that her stretching on Glork makes her scummy, yet.

Much like patrick, those first two qualifiers don't bother me. The last one does. Ether might eventually do something else that makes her scummy, but still, I would think that the stretching on Glork would still not be considered a scum tell. The yet is unnecessary and worries me.

I guess right now I have the biggest problem with Tarhalinder. His attack on ergo just is wrong. He attacks ergo for summarizing and not making any opinions.

hasdgfas' FoS on Ether probably was too strong, but I don't really see it as scummy.

Yes, hascow, because nobody has ever badgered anybody else into voting somebody.

This could equally be applied to early FoSes on weak evidence - they're not exactly uncommon. I'm not particularly fond of the way that you're goading hasdgfas and Incog on from the sidelines.

I see opinions there. Also, I would like his opinion on Roland, who summarized in this post

Okay I'm here, I just reread the topic and I think I have an okay understanding of what's gone on so far... Theres the random or not random vote thing with Glork and Ether, and something about Hascow suspecting Ether and a page or so on that issue. Is there something I missed in between? AP Exams are done for this week so I'd figure that I do some catching up.

Is he also scummy? Also, I disagree with his FoS on ether. BTW, what does IIoA stand for tar?

Unvote, Vote: Tarhalindur

While this is not especially incriminating by itself, it is the best lead I have at the moment.

1) IIoA is Information Instead of Analysis, one of the Tarhalindur Standard Tells (see sig). It is a scumtell because it is often a symptom of scum trying to participate without scumhunting. (To kill two birds with one stone - the Standard Tells are my big hints that someone's scum, and I use them extensively. Now care to ask questions about something other than theory, Erg0?)

2) I really hadn't noticed that Roland was in the game due to his inactivity - he's been very under my radar. That probably needs to change - the post you just quoted looks like IIoA to me, which, given the game state, is enough to place him on my scumdar. I'll want to see what his replacement (presumably Farside) has to say before I act on this, though.

I'll need a quick reread before I decide where to put my vote. (Despite my appreciation for bandwagons, I don't really see the PokerFace bandwagon - his early requests for comments from other players looks town to me, and his explanation looks more like misguided town than scum.)

[Tarhalindur]

Patrick - I thought I saw requests for comments in Poker's 122. After review, it is clear that I was misreading the post quite horribly, and that the questions I thought I was seeing did not, in fact, exist. The analysis still looks reasonably pro-town to me, however.

Pokerface - the crowning example of IIoA is Theopor_COD in Stargate SG-1 (the game where I named the tell). Link!

More ASAP.

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded

I will deal more with this game once a pressing deadline in another game has passed.

For the time being, I'm going to put some pressure on Elmo in the hope of getting some content out of him.

Unvote, Vote: Elmo

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded, finally had time for a better reread now that another game has gone to night.

Which doesn't matter, because Elmo still gets my vote. I did not see anything in his 246 on who he thinks is scum or town, just comments on single posts and questions for other players (yes, I consider that scummy - similar to IIoA, and possibly a supertell - but I've done enough Mafia theory this game).

In other news:

Mod, is the vote count as of post 242 correct?

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, I'm starting to move from apathy to being pissed.

I've been apathetic because a) I've been looking into some other interests for the last two weeks after finishing finals (leading to somewhat limited time for Mafia) and b) there has been almost NOTHING that I can use to scumhunt. No wagons, no clear scumhunting from other players, NOTHING.

I am TIRED of indecisive towns and deadline lynches. They are so amazing good for scum that it's not even funny. As evidence, I submit to you the scum victory in Mini 549.

I was hoping that another player would either take up the aggressive townie role or be willing to bandwagon. In all this time, NO ONE has done so.

So be it. If no one else will take up the aggressive townie role, I WILL.

First, some general comments.

Scumdar:

Elmo

- See below.

MafiaSSK

- HOW FRICKIN' HARD IS IT TO SAY THAT YOU FIND SOMEONE SCUMMY? SPEAKING OF THAT, WHO DO YOU THINK IS SCUMMY, ANYWAYS?

Incognito

- He's been under my radar for most of the game, and that's usually not a good sign. There's a few other points against him - in particular, his conduct towards the has wagon could easily be an attempt to push the has wagon without incriminating himself by joining it, then hop off and gain townie points when has claimed (hereby indicating that he was not a power role). There's also his pushing of a Glork lynch(who, if he's town, is probably THE player the scum want dead) on IMO mediocre reasoning.

Ergo

- I still have a weak scum read on him, mainly based on his apparent unwillingness to come out and outright say that another player is scum despite giving the clear impression of such.

scotmany12

- Another player under my radar, and his references to "best lynch candidate" instead of "I think you're scum" do not sit well with me.

Unreadable:

Glork

- Glork is like ABR, BM, and Rosso. I have extreme trouble getting a read on him without role-based information. He does, however, seem to be tied to Ether, and I suspect that they have the same alignment.

Neutral:

Ether

- She hasn't really called out many other players, but she did appear to accuse hasdgfas of being scum when she voted for him. She's also apparently V/LA, which makes me more inclined to excuse her lack of saying who she thinks is scum.

Towndar:

Patrick

- His post 280 is the most protown-looking post in the entire game, and the rest of his posts read somewhat more neutral than scummy

PokerFace

- He's *still* guilty of just talking about lynch preferences rather than actual scumminess, but his two big analysis posts both look pro-town to me.

Mizzy

- Mizzy would be scummy if not for my meta on her, especially I do not like her page summary post (I consider those a scumtell). However, her arguing with Patrick *does* look the brand of scumhunting she displayed in Final Stand and Tarhalindur Mostly Mountainous, and for that I consider her the most town-looking player in the game.

Now, let's show EXACTLY why Elmo needs to be lynched posthaste:

Okay I'm here, I just reread the topic and I think I have an okay understanding of what's gone on so far... Theres the random or not random vote thing with Glork and Ether, and something about Hascow suspecting Ether and a page or so on that issue. Is there something I missed in between? AP Exams are done for this week so I'd figure that I do some catching up.

Hey look, here's a player summarizing the game state and failing to give ANY of his opinions about what's going on.

Okay I'm here, I just reread the topic and I think I have an okay understanding of what's gone on so far... Theres the random or not random vote thing with Glork and Ether, and something about Hascow suspecting Ether and a page or so on that issue. Is there something I missed in between?

This is kind of a bizarre question when the thread is only 4 pages and you've just read it all. Importantly, do you have any opinions on the stuff that's happened so far?

Well I've read through the topic, but only with a rudimentary grasp of the current game so far. So far no one stands out as particularly scummy; Glork and Ether give off pro-town vibes and Hascow even though he reacted to the Ether situation I don't see much scumminess in looking for scum? But overall this viewpoint is just based on my rudimentary understanding so far.

I'll admit that roland isn't the only player to exhibit this reluctance to actually accuse anyone of being scum. I'll also note that there's a reason that so many of you are on my scumdar (and two to three more of you would be there as well if not for mitigating circumstances).

Readin' through. Hmm. I seriously doubt Glork would try to fish like that with this crowd. I don't see why 'accusing just to accuse' in the random stage is a scumtell; might be unwise, but more than a few people will jump on literally anything to get out of random. I do figure Incog has a point, inthat his vote is probably actually weaker than Ether's, but hasd doesn't jump on it anything like the same way. I'm also not sure how hasd can say 'we do need a start to the game, and this is a good one' and then say Ether was 'trying too hard'. Can you try too hard to get the game off to a good start? @_@. I somewhat agree with Erg0 that Glork's stance here appears kinda.. standoffish? Passive? Post 67 even seems a lil' passive-aggressive, hum. Albeit I agree with the conclusion (obv, some players will wagon anything with a pulse - I believe that's consistent with Ether) Glork's comment doesn't appear to actually do anything other than prompt further comment from both sides. Mizzy appears to be dancing (heh) around the exchange. I don't agree with Tarhalindur's comment on Erg0, 68 seemed to take stances on people in a reasonable manner, although I see what he's getting at with Ether.

I'm mainly just sitting back with some popcorn and watching the whole Ether <--> Glork thing going on. Neither of one of them are acting out of character, I think, so as of yet, I have no opinions on who is scummy.

Um, hi?

I don't understand Incognito's vote in 85. I can see he'd be curious, but the natural thing to do is simply ask "Hey, Glork, why'd you miss me out?" - I really can't see any reason for a vote, there. IIRC, Mizzy has a tendency to assert that we can't know much early on - I disagree, but I don't think her qualifiers are significant here. I kinda agree with scotmany wrt Tar, hm. Oh, noes, we're not having this 'to be honest' debate, are we? I don't like Hasd's 131, that looks very like 'hey, look, I'm doing stuff! Only not!' hrhrm. It seems to me like Tar puts too much stock in the Standard Tells, here - although I have seen IIoA before, I don't think what Erg0's doing fits that pattern, although you could see it that way due to confirmation bias if you were specifically looking for it, hm. I figure it's a good tell, but generally limited.. Tar's play seems very by-the-numbers, I'm not sure if that's in character. Hm, I disagree with Patrick about Glork's nitpicking, that seems precisely the kinda thing he picks up on (thinking back to Open 54 here) most frequently. hasdgfas's 153 strikes me as staying near the sidelines for some reason.. not sure I like that. My vague impression was he was like that in Pine Barrens, all tentative like.. I can't remember if I've seen him as town, yet. I agree with PokerFace that I don't see a real basis for calling Mizzy pro-town yet - I can't remember who did that, maybe I'll go and look back in a bit, hm. Ether seems a little different than I recall from Big Love, but then I replaced in a loooong way from the start, so perhaps it's just different circumstances, like... I can see prodding and poking random details as a good way to get things going, but you'd switch away from that after a bit. Mmm. I do quite like a lot of PokerFace's 158. Incognito seems to be making a bunch of good points hereafter.

Glork: What underlying reason do you have for acting as you are, when making post 172?
Patrick/Ether: What does Tar feel like relative to Farscape? I don't think I've seen them in a game before.
Incog: What is '42%' in post 27? Why do you like your Mizzy vote in 175?
hasdgfas: Why don't you like unprompted lists of pro-town people on 'gut' (181)? Why haven't you criticised Glork for doing exactly that? How precisely has Glork been 'useful'?
Mizzy: Can you give an example or three of Patrick's questions, and explain how they are not designed to scumhunt?
MafiaSSK: Can you explain why you thought those bunch of people were townish?

Deadline vote probably goes to cow. Humma.

Summary, questions, lots of analysis of individual posts and little analysis of players. Seriously, Elmo should have been dogpiled for this post. I've just been too busy/apathetic to point it out properly, and nobody else seems to care.

Patrick: What comes to mind is the way he called Sikario town, saying "there's something there that doesn't quite look made up" - there wasn't any analysis of his behaviour or anything, just based on the subtext of what he wrote. Now, I don't think 'to be honest' is a valid tell, and it actually seems markedly less sophisticated than I'd expect Glork to be, but it's the same 'class' of analysis that I saw from him, I think. So while I agree there's something weird about him here, I don't agree with your characterisation of him being as unusually nit-picky. I don't think it's a valid tell, no - I hate these kinds of accusation precisely because they rarely go anywhere. And that's really what seemed interesting to me, there's almost certainly very little play in it, but he's running with it anyway. In a vacuum, I'd be liable to think distancing. One thing I do remember thinking in O54 was that Glork was quite careful in selecting which questions to ask, and they were usually quite productive - I think he could be playing much better regardless of alignment, right now, and I don't know what to make of that. I'm simultaneously a little suspicious and a little bemused.

Incog: What is the comparison being drawn for 'uncharacteristically useless'? I don't believe we've been in a completed game together.
Tarhalindur: To what extent do you rely on your Standard Tells vs. thinking on-the-fly? How frequently do you get significant mileage out of them as town? How do you (ab)use them when scum?
Pokerface: How heavily do you generally use metagaming? How do you feel it helps you? If I were to metagame you, would I find you placing an unusual emphasis on metagaming here, and why?
Mizzy: Can you give 2-3 examples of

precisely

what you mean about Patrick's questions? I don't follow what you mean here, and I didn't notice him doing anything similar when I saw him as scum previously.

With the quality of the players in this game, I'd actually expect scum to be more nit-picky than town anyway.

Really? Why?

hasdgfas: Why don't you like unprompted lists of pro-town people on 'gut' (181)? Why haven't you criticised Glork for doing exactly that? How precisely has Glork been 'useful'?

Hascow, ^ qwestions. And: why is 'reaching' in the random stage scummy? Why is 'being stupid' scummy? What's the best single reason that you're voting SSK?

I'm unmoved by cow's claim; I'm just not going to drink the wine on that one. I'll prolly lay down a vote tomorrow, after staring at the playerlist some more.

Waffle waffle waffle, more questions, and he suddenly claims to be "unmoved" by has's claim despite never showing any strong feelings about has previously.

I mean, seriously, why doesn't this guy have about 5 to 7 votes on him right now?

[Tarhalindur]

Why did I forget has? Because I failed to notice that I hadn't read him in isolation/written him up when I made the post. Oops.

Has started pro-town but has become increasingly scummy - he tried to jumpstart the game by his Ether attack (pro-town), but he waffled a lot when he did so (scummy). The MafiaSSK attack is pinging my scumdar, too, since he's attacking him more for being useless than for being a threat to the town (classic scumlogic, there, especially as it offers an easy out to a mislynch). I consider the claim a null tell, since it doesn't give us anything definite to say about the lynch.

I'd be willing to lynch him at deadline, but I find other players scummier (Elmo and MafiaSSK definitely; I haven't decided whether I find Incognito or has scummier yet).

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: Now can we please get back to lynching Elmoscum, plox?

[Tarhalindur]

Yeah, this wagon is BS. Let me show you a better target.

To paraphrase my flavor, I am an FBI agent who has been investigating Mafia activities at this club to further the larger investigation. When the current situation with the Morettis came up, I called my superiors and asked them for information about the club patrons. Unfortunately, searching the databases for information takes time (stupid federal bureaucracy!...), so I can only get information about a single player each night.

In practical terms, I'm the cop. I investigated Glork last night, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone who read my analysis post yesterday.

Glork = scumbag.

Vote: Glork
LOCK ON: Glork

[Tarhalindur]

One thing though, about this:

In practical terms, I'm the cop. I investigated Glork last night, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone who read my analysis post yesterday.

If you're telling the truth, I really wouldn't exactly consider it obvious that you would have investigated Glork of all people. Considering the fact that you created a case against Elmo and he ended up not getting lynched, I would have expected you to maybe investigate him or anyone else on your Scumdar list. In fact, you even listed me in your Scumdar region just for attacking Glork on what you considered "mediocre" reasons. Could you please answer some of the questions I've posed for you in my previous posts, Tarhalindur?

Well, let's take a look at the item (which is also a power role crumb) on the list that is in question:

<snip rest of list>

Unreadable:

Glork

- Glork is like ABR, BM, and Rosso. I have extreme trouble getting a read on him

without role-based information

. He does, however, seem to be tied to Ether, and I suspect that they have the same alignment.

<snip rest of list>

Now, the two reasons for investigating Glork:

1) If I am unable to get a read on a player without role-based information and I have the means of getting role-based information on that player, then the logical choice is to use said means of getting role-based information on that player as quickly as possible.
2) I saw a possible connection between Ether and Glork yesterday, so investigating Glork might also give me a better read on Ether. Speaking of that, now that I have her reaction to the Glork wagon (she was pretty supportive of Glork yesterday - note the "Glork's town tell" and "I would not be up for a Glorklynch; I am in the "Glork is allowed to suck on Day 1" camp." posts - but she claimed to believe me completely today), I now feel comfortable saying that Ether has moved firmly onto my scumdar.

HoS: Ether

More coming ASAP.

[Tarhalindur]

I like how Glork has absolutely no comment about my vote on him or any comment about the fact that both Ether and me had come to somewhat similar conclusions to Patrick about our preferred lynches at this point.

....Not really sure where you're going with this one. Your vote on me is completely inconsequential right now.

You and Ether coming to "somewhat similar" conclusions as Patrick means absolutely nothing to me.



Well tharr ya go! Tricksy commentses!

I was getting at the fact that the content you included in your Post 283 seemed completely geared to all of the information that was written on Page 12. To me, it looked like you hadn't even

bothered

to read through anything that had been written on page 11 at all. In Post 283, you still mentioned that you would be fine with a hasdgfas lynch so I would think you might have at least commented on:

1) his vanilla claim and

2) the conclusion that I and others drew with respect to his vanilla claim.

Instead you just seemed to attack Patrick, respond to PokerFace while still voicing your support for a hasdgfas lynch, and excuse yourself for why you seem to be doing absolutely nothing thus far in this game.

Incognito

- He's been under my radar for most of the game, and that's usually not a good sign. There's a few other points against him - in particular, his conduct towards the has wagon could easily be an attempt to push the has wagon without incriminating himself by joining it, then hop off and gain townie points when has claimed (hereby indicating that he was not a power role). There's also his pushing of a Glork lynch(who, if he's town, is probably THE player the scum want dead) on IMO mediocre reasoning.

Tarhalindur, so you consider the fact that Glork has done little to no scum-hunting all game, failed to follow up on his attack on Patrick whom he labeled as "suspicious", and failed to comment or even voice his support for Mizzy's case against Patrick all to be mediocre reasons? Why? I also love how people consider attacking a player who has a decent reputation for being a good scum hunter an automatic scum tell.

Also interesting is the following:

Towndar:

Patrick

- His post 280 is the most protown-looking post in the entire game, and the rest of his posts read somewhat more neutral than scummy.

You labeled Patrick in your Towndar region citing that his post 280 was the towniest post of the entire game but yet two of the five people you've listed in your scumdar region (me and Erg0) were actually referenced as somewhat town by Patrick in that same exact post 280. Patrick even mentioned that he's suspicious of

Glork

, the same person you've listed me in your Scumdar region just for attacking him. Can you explain your reasons for any of this?

First: As noted before, Glork is one of a handful of players on site who I do not trust my read on unless I have role-based information. Since I had no role-based information at the time, I placed him in the unreadable category pending an investigation.

Second: At the time of my big analysis post, I thought that your attacks on Glork were insincere, primarily due to the phrasing of the posts: In your first vote for Glork, you claimed that you were voting him because something wasn't adding up; in your second vote, you made it fairly clear that deadline was a major factor in voting for Glork and you seemed to leave yourself an escape route if people decided that he was town:

<snip>

At this point, I think I would be happiest with a Glork-lynch. I don't particularly like that some people have given Glork this "out" citing that we should keep him around since, if he's town, he could be a huge help towards helping find scum with his reputation. I think there's a few people in this game whom I could say the same for so to give him this out seems pretty silly. Glork hasn't done much scum-hunting aside from the "to be honest" debate and the FoS on Patrick. I also think Patrick brought up a fair point when he mentioned the following:

<snip>

Glork being scum, however, negates the second point entirely (and, in retrospect, I may have been misinterpreting the "he could be a huge help" entirely).

The other major reason for finding you scummy was your behavior towards has between the two Glork votes, which I interpreted as a possible attempt to push the has wagon to completion without being called for it (if you were scum, your unvote is a little odd, but it *could* have been a case of trying to gain townie points by derailing a town wagon).

[Tarhalindur]

Why would you claim so soon tar? You didn't even try to defend yourself...Yes, you are at l-2, but only about half of the players even checked the thread. Claim seems a bit premature...I have my doubts. Sanity confirmed?

As far as I was concerned, there were a ton of good reasons for claiming in my first post of Day 2:

1) A guilty on Glork is the kind of result that can break a game in half. I was going to claim early today regardless of the wagon (I will NOT risk allowing a result like "Glork=scum" to be silenced by NK), and the usual reason for waiting for a bit to claim (trying to draw out scumbuddies) seemed pointless in the face of a fast wagon (which I'm pretty sure has one of Glork's scumbuddies on it) and a fairly strong read of a Glork-Ether connection.

2) I generally consider L-2 the correct time to claim in a game with 10 or more players, especially when an extremely fast (as in 0 to L-2 in 6 hours) scum-led wagon that is likely to draw more support is involved.

3) I was concerned that I might be speedlynched before I had the chance to dump my information, let alone make a defense.

As for sanity: Not given, but I've never seen a Paranoid or Insane cop in a mini normal, so I'm willing to bet my life that I'm Sane.

Finally, as for your case from 346:

1) There is one thing that I expect to see in town posts and that sometimes fails to appear in scum posts: analysis of another player. Up until his 348, Elmo failed to provide this crucial element, instead providing what pretty much amounted to questions and summaries of other players' actions with limited commentary (which does NOT count as analysis for me - it may be the trees (analysis of a sort), but it's not the forest (analysis with an eye for how the pieces fit together to indicate scum)).

2) Going from "willing to vote him at deadline" to "not moved by his claim" looked extremely contrived to me, implying strong feelings for has being scum that are not indicated by his prior play (which showed little more than a weak preference for a has lynch, as far as I could tell).

3) Suspecting has and suspecting SSK are not mutually exclusive. My scumdar shows who I find scummy, not who I think is in a scumgroup together.

4) Charging me with conveniently forgetting has is the kind of charge that cannot be defended against, only explained. I have explained what happened. Believe it or not as you will.

5) See my reply to Incog - the key factor for suspecting Incog for the Glork case was that I thought that his posts attacking Glork were insincere.

[Tarhalindur]

<snip>

Tar, can you tell us about the flavor of the mafia?

The main thing I know about the Morettis is that headquarters believes that they are running the Satin Dolls as a Mafia front (that's one of the big reasons they sent me in: to try to verify that belief). That doesn't necessarily mean that all the staff are scum, though.

In short, I'm not going to be much use for determining if the Bouncer is scum.

[Tarhalindur]

Do

NOT

let Tar pull a Lepton's Gambit tomorrow. He is SCUM.

I am an exotic dancer, Jailkeeper. Obviously this explains my blunder at during confirmations when I blurted that I was the hottest person in the game.

As I was near-certain Ether is vanilla, and nobody seemed to suspect her in the least, I jailkept her last night.

Nothing more I can say, really. Apparently y'all are going to play follow the claimed cop. And Tar's doing his job. I don't even know if a counterclaim is feasable, because I'm not willing to bet that there's a regular Doctor in the game.

Jailkeeper might be believable if not for the fact that you are most assuredly scum. Your claim of targeting Ether does not surprise me in the slightest, since I consider her one of your most likely buddies at this point.

More tomorrow, I don't have that much time right now.

[Tarhalindur]

1) A guilty on Glork is the kind of result that can break a game in half. I was going to claim early today regardless of the wagon (I will NOT risk allowing a result like "Glork=scum" to be silenced by NK), and the usual reason for waiting for a bit to claim (trying to draw out scumbuddies) seemed pointless in the face of a fast wagon (which I'm pretty sure has one of Glork's scumbuddies on it) and a fairly strong read of a Glork-Ether connection.

Bzzt.

This doesn't even have to do with the fact that you're a lying, dirty scumbag -- I'm going to refute this on general play strategy alone.

First -- When you have a guilty, you don't blurt it out right away. EVER. You extract as much information from the condemned as possible, and then you wrap the noose around their necks. If I were scum and you had actually caught me, I'd let myself get run up to L-1, hammer myself, and you'd have gotten ZERO information out of Day Two.

Secondly -- You blab on about losing the result due to nightkill. Two things here. A) Given the push against you today, I find it very unlikely that you would have been nightkilled. If anything, you'd be worring about a Vigging, but there's no evidence of a Vigilante existing as of yet. B) You can breadcrumb such that, if you die overnight, I'd be effectively outed anyway. Vote me, make a case against me, put every essence of your being into making sure everybody knows that YOU THINK I AM 100% SCUM. Then, if you

did

get nightkilled, and you

were

a Cop with a guilty, EVERYONE WOULD KNOW and I'd be subsequently run up.

Thirdly -- Balanced games nowadays have ways of ensuring that "follow the cop" won't fly. Like I said, I'm pretty sure there ISN'T a Doctor, so the mafia can safely dispose of you once I'm gone, no questions asked. Secondly, there's zero guarantee that you are sane. Thirdly, roles to disable you (such as Mafia Roleblockers) exist.

1) Even if you aren't being completely disingenuous about proper cop play, your argument is still BS. Take a look at Mafia 67 and (particularly) Mini 527, where I was willing to trade myself 1 for 1 with a powerful scum.

I admit that even for me, optimal play would have involved me trying to draw out a few reactions before claiming, but the very fast wagon (with one player I KNOW is scum and one player I strongly suspect is scum on said wagon) mitigates that argument in two ways: 1) the aforementioned fear of a speedlynch and 2) I could already draw significant information from the BS wagon you led and certain players' Day 1 behavior

As for your claim of getting no information out of Day 2: first, nice WIFOM, and second, BULLSHIT. I already got the biggest piece of information I needed - namely, an all-but-known scum, and on an unreadable player who was near the center of attention yesterday to boot. This is critically relevant because it means that I can use my best (a relative term, to be granted) avenue for scumhunting: connections to known scum. Take a look at my games as town (particularly Mini 467 and Mini 527 - sadly, the best example is ongoing) - I'm generally at my best at finding scum when I can connect them to other scum.

Side note: The possibility of scum self-hammer is one of the strongest justifications for forcing a claim at L-2 whenever practical.

2) This may be a valid way to play Cop with a guilty. It is not the way I have played Cop in the past, and it is not the way that I have played Cop in this game. More importantly, it partially deprives me of the chance to find scumbuddies through their reaction to the guilty.

3) First, I just completed my two biggest goals as cop: 1) find a scum and thereby turn on the best part of my scumdar (the scum connections part), and 2) investigate any unreadable players. At this point, I should be able to rely less on my investigation and more on my scumdar.

Second, I am perfectly willing to trade myself 1 for 1 with a scum of your caliber, especially since Glork-scum should reveal the rest of the scumgroup through interactions in short order. If the scum use a neutralizing role on me, so be it - I can still hunt for connections, and that means that any other power role we have is free to act.

Third, it looks to me like you just admitted that I'm the real cop. I'm sure you'll try to explain it off as "this is what I would say if you were the cop", but the tone feels very, very off for that. (Well, that and the fact that you are scum.)

2) I generally consider L-2 the correct time to claim in a game with 10 or more players, especially when an extremely fast (as in 0 to L-2 in 6 hours) scum-led wagon that is likely to draw more support is involved.

3) I was concerned that I might be speedlynched before I had the chance to dump my information, let alone make a defense.

I can't actually argue with these. I'd have claimed given the wagon, too.

As for sanity: Not given, but I've never seen a Paranoid or Insane cop in a mini normal, so I'm willing to bet my life that I'm Sane.

HOLD HIM TO THIS WHEN I DIE AS I HAVE CLAIMED.

In the extremely unlikely chance that you are telling the truth, then yes, I need to die tomorrow. But that's not going to happen, because you're going to turn up scum.

5) See my reply to Incog - the key factor for suspecting Incog for the Glork case was that I thought that his posts attacking Glork were insincere.

Do you still think his attacks on me were insincere?[/quote]

It's still possible, but I'm no longer as sure about that - his posts after my analysis post yesterday look more sincere, and knowing how crap I can be at interpreting other players' logic I will admit that I may have been misreading him yesterday. More to the point, I doubt that Incog is your scumbuddy for other reasons (particularly the aforementioned change in behavior starting late yesterday), and I doubt that there's an SK, so I think he's pretty much in the clear.

[Tarhalindur]

Posting this in all my games: limited access until Sunday due to upcoming event.

[Tarhalindur]

Limited access turned into no access and lasted a day longer than expected.

More ASAP, I need a reread of the last few pages.

[Tarhalindur]

First: For those of you attacking me for not defending myself before claiming, consider these two problems with your attack:

1) I did not look at the thread until the time that I claimed. By that point, I was at L-2 with more than ten players alive. Under such conditions I consider a claim OBLIGATORY, to the extent that I would be attacking you for failing to force the claim if you had backed off the wagon.

2) I had a guilty on one of, if not THE most prominent player in the game. Under such conditions, I would have been strongly inclined to claim even if I was not already in claim range.

Second: To answer a question by Erg0, I try to play the same way regardless of role unless role-based information is involved.

Third: To answer a question by PokerFace, the game I consider the shining example of catching scum by connections did, in fact, just finish: Random Mafia 3.

Fourth: Ether, I recognize that you have posted a defense. I have not yet had a chance to reread closely and fully evaluate your defense and your actions. Also, after reconsidering over my limited access period, I've decided that Elmo is actually somewhat more likely to be scum with Glork that you are (mainly because I don't remember Glork using Chainsaw Defense to protect you).

Fifth: Since people seem to be looking for this: there is one post that I consider scummy coming from Glork ON DAY 1 after the reread. It wouldn't be enough for me to push for a Glork lynch without the guilty, but it does corroborate it:

What is there to say? A bunch of people jumped Elmo in the last couple of days. It looks like a feeding frenzy.

This doesn't actually say anything. Scum can easily be rushed close to deadline. Heck, in the last mini game I played, a scum was rushed in the last 24 hours, and only avoided getting lynched by lurking then claiming cop 5 minutes before deadline. You're essentially bitching about something whilst not doing anything about it; and not for the first time.

Just about anything "can happen." In my 2+ years of experience, I can find a counterexample for just about anything.

Based on what I remember, Elmo was first suspected for not being around for nearly a week after replacing into the game. Given his predecessor's inactivity, I see how this can be irritating, but I don't see ElmoScum deliberately stalling. Minus points for thsoe who accused him of purposefully avoiding the thread.
He made some big long posts. First he threw out some gut reactinos to posts and asked pointed questions of seven other players. Lots of "whys" and "what are your reasons for" type of questions --

good scumhunting questions

. People sparred, and Elmo came back to the thread later that day with additional questions for Patrick, Incog, and reiteration of his Cow questions. At this point he had already stated that he was tentatively willing to vote for Cow.

PokerFace finally took the initiative and bolded a few anti-Cow comments by Elmo and out of

nowhere

decides Elmo is a better lynch candidate than Cow. You yourself, Patrick, admit that your interest in Elmo is "sketchy and gut-based," but apparently it's good enough -- better than Cow, Tar, or myself. You temper it by saying you'd "hate to string [Elmo] up wrongly based on just a couple of posts and what could be just my imagination." I'm curious to know what changes between that and your actual vote.

The real turning point is Tar's big anti-Elmo post. He flatly states that Elmo "should have been dogpiled" for said post, but I'm not particularly seeing what's wrong with it, especially in comparison to several other players in the game. He wants to run Elmo up for not doing enough quickly enough, but I simply don't buy into it.

Suddenly Ether's okay with an ElmoLynch. Mizzy posits "boring vanilla or scum" and leans towards the former.

PokerFace: Not enough analysis, "reaching" on hascow. Vote #2.

Patrick: Vote #3 without a word added.

Erg0: "Welp, it's Elmo or Has, so I guess it's Elmo." Vote #4

Incog rags on me and doesn't even

mention

either viable lynch candidate. Ether pipes in to notdisagree with ElmoLynch again. I call opportunism, Erg0 calls it "realism."

Seriously. This wagon is fucking atrocious. Maybe Elmo will turn up scum; if so, I feel like it'd be a total shot in the dark.

SSK has been more useless for far longer, and aside from a "Who's scum?" question from Patrick, he hasn't even gotten a

mention

out of anybody. I'm getting a free bye because I'm Glork and apparently I tend to do this D1 from time to time. Elmo's being run up due to a slow start failure to live up to expectations. It's bullshit.

This post REEKS of trying to deflect attention from Elmo through Chainsaw Defense. Note how Glork shunts into angry mode immediately after Elmo appears to be the default lynch. Note how Glork tosses in an attack on a lurker (SSK) in the process of attacking the wagon but does not follow up on it.

That's Chainsaw Defense, people, and it's defending a player who I think is scum for reasons I explained yesterday. When Glork comes up scum, Elmo needs to get squeezed (also Ether unless I find a major error in my original conclusion).

His recent posts (claiming a slip at the beginning of the game, claiming to try to be unreadable yet leave a supertell - direct contradiction anyone?) are further corroborations of the guilty.

As for Glork's recent attacks: As near as I can tell, Glork's attacks basically boil down to "your playstyle is bullshit". Note: Disagreement over playstyle does not necessarily mean that the other player is scum.

As for remaining complaints about flavor: There are a few issues with the flavor compared to real-life FBI, but I'd say that's a necessary side effect of using FBI flavor in the game flavor (similar to how the FBI Agent role does not, to the best of my knowledge, mirror how the FBI works in real life).

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded

Will not have time for any involved posts (which is what I need to make in this game) until tomorrow.

[Tarhalindur]

Frak this. I've needed a break from being a player in Mafia games since mid-May or so (modding is more interesting and less time-consuming); the only reason that I tried to stay in the game through Day 1 (much less today) was as a favor to OGML.

What I'm doing here is somewhat suboptimal as scum strategy, but it's better for me as a person, it's better for the game, and it reduces the amount of work for OGML. Besides, I've already exceeded the goals of my claim (actually succeeding in taking Glork down was a long shot at best, especially since I suspected he had a truly ironclad claim at the time of the claim) and I can't afford to sacrifice what I've already gained (on the off chance that my buddies are as bad at catching on as I think they might be...).

Scotmany is the real Cop, and got a Guilty on me last night (seriously, why didn't everyone pick up on this about 5 pages ago?). I'd try to code this one if I wasn't 95% sure that Glork had already picked up on it.
Glork is obvious.
Finally - buddies? You know that player who I mentioned in the same parenthetical statement as I mentioned Glork in last night (yeah, that player)? That player's probably the bouncer.

Any and all told you sos may now commence.

And if you haven't figured out who's the scum in Glork/Tar yet... get a frakking brain!

Unvote, Vote: Tarhalindur

[Tarhalindur]

I have only one question here: why wasn't Elmo lynched the second I turned up scum? Seriously, people need to meta me more.

[Tarhalindur]

Yes!!

It was frustrating watching this game from the outside and seeing nobody really paying any attention to Elmo. When day 6 came, I was still expecting one of the townies to vote the other fairly quickly. Very good to see people willing to reconsider an assumption that they'd been making for a while, even if it did require PokerFace's gambit to show the way (which I do think was a decent gambit btw).

I still maintain (and yes, I've debated this with Elmo already) that the reasons for lynching him on day 1 were not poor; the only shoddy vote was Erg0's, which didn't turn me off the wagon because if Erg0 was scum I could have seen it as a bus just as easily as an opportunist jump on a townie. I don't feel Elmo would have posted in the same way as town. Activity would likely have been the same, but it was something in the posts that bothered me, not the lack of them.

I have only one question here: why wasn't Elmo lynched the second I turned up scum? Seriously, people need to meta me more.

I think the answer to this question is fairly obvious. Elmo dropped down my suspicion list too when I found out Tar was scum (though interestingly, I'd have had more trouble seeing Elmo and Glork paired together). Tar's overcertainty of Elmo's guilt was what I saw as the biggest indicator of busing there, but I can easily see why Elmo would have slipped to the back of people's minds after that.

The setup looks balanced enough to me, and I thought the flavour was very good. Thanks to OGML for modding, and to the players who made this a close one. I got rather stressed about the game near the end of day 1, in part because I was entering an important exam period, but good game on the whole.

You'd think somebody would have read Stargate SG-1, at the very least... you know, the game where I counterclaimed my own scumbuddy to try to clear myself.

Anyways, Scummy noms are up. The town deserves it.

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: So does OGML, for that matter.