Open 668 - Diffusion of Power [Game Over]

[Almost50]

OK, I know it's not customary for a replacement to post before they are officially announced/admitted in by the mod, so I am waiting for my official entrance myself. I just wanted to tell you that I'm here, have received the role PM, and would appreciate it if somebody told me if there were any claims/night results that I need to be aware of at this time (my role PM told me I got Titus was TOWN on N2, but that's about all I know at this point). I will -of course- look at the first page and then try to skim through the thread for the already flipped roles, plus anything you guys want to point me to.

Thank you (and SORRY for posting before you announce me, NC)

[Almost50]

also the last time I did this a MG claimed he was a daycop with scum result on me and I got lynched so if that happens again I'll probably quit mafia

[Almost50]

Blawb claimed N1 doc.
I am N1 cop who received an inno on Creature.
Your slot did, indeed, claim N2 cop with inno on Titus.

So, what's your case on them? You may start composing one if you want to. (same goes for PP)

[Almost50]

Almost50 replaces notscience! ...Obviously.

not to worry, Almost. there's no rule in place about it, really.

TY, my dear friend *Thumbs Up*

[Almost50]

So you guys intend to make me do all the work on my own???

[Almost50]

If notscience does get replaced, it's obvious that PP is the last scum

And why is that?

OK, I'll give you two time to prepare your final/closing cases. Would 48 hours suffice?

FTR, I HAVE read all thread and I HAVE reached a conclusion, but I still would like you both to tell me why it's obvious you are town and/or the other is scum.

[Almost50]

Curious as to your unadulterated thoughts first.

If I post those already I won't even need a case to be made from either of you anymore. I'd just lay my case and vote.

[Almost50]

What if I told you notscience actually lied about his night of action? It was last night and he did get a guilty on his submitted target!!

Actually, I had thought of going with this bluff as soon as I received my PM and see how you both react. However, having read the game I see that notscience had a solid crumb it cannot be refuted or argued that it was a trick to keep him alive till he performed his check.

Where I'm at -f you insist- is that you're scum and I have the case for it, so if you feel like trying to change my read now is the time. If you keep stalling and moving in circles I can put an end to it on the spot.

Over to you.

[Almost50]

Ok.. I'm posting my case here w/o a vote, but consider my vote on you in spirit. I'm going to logout and go to bed afterwards, so you should have enough time to read and respond. When I come back (in no less than 12 hours, but probably more) I trust that you would have had responded to the main points at least. Deal??

Hold on ..

[Almost50]

So, I was reading through until I came across this:

I wonder if the best strategy here is to no lynch and play follow the cop.

THAT was the right move (I did suggest that when I played this setup last, but not that early).

VC 1.4

- Day 1 -

Blawb [4]

: ssbm_Kyouko, Creature, chilledtea, Transcend

Yeah I still don't really like pep's content since I voted him (he doesn't really say anything original in any posts that are substantive), but I like the blawb wagon that's forming. I still think KT is town and probably an easy target for scum. I also don't feel like his townread on transcend is genuine, and he's only saying that because he's voting for kt. I would think it should be the other way around (tr transcend, therefore kt is scum). Post 140 also is basically justification for a terrible case I don't have a problem bringing him to L-2.

texcat is also going after kt, but her iso seems like her tunnel is genuine. Seems to have a natural progression from questioning kt to voting him.

VOTE: blawb

OK, that does it for me. 1st voter (from RVS) was scum, but kept their vote in there as the wagon grew, then 5th voter (L-2) was also scum, and I can't see scum bussing this early for no reason at all.

175 also looks like a chainsaw defence of Persi just before aron joined the wagon on Blawb.

Also, I can't see the case Blawb made so early on Persi coming from scum. It doesn't make sense to make that kind of push on a random "townie" slot this early if they were scum.

And now this:

If the N1 cop feels confident that their check is likely to hit scum tonight then they could claim and have blawb protect them, but that would be up to the player. If it were me I wouldn't claim today though

Here, scum!Kyouko is confirming Blawb to be a Town Doctor by easily accepting the claim even after having been told to check the setup. What if someone did claim a N1 Cop? Well, the Doctor would be on them of course, so they won't be NK'd. Furthermore, that claimed Cop will not be NK'd for the rest of the game bc they had already used up their investigative one-shot. If Blawb was scum then Kyouko's play is dumb as can be, because scum essentially want the Cops dead, and this move forces them NOT to shoot a claimed N1 Cop. It was better to let the (unclaimed) Cop investigate the one they were most likely to investigate at this point: Blawb himself, which brings me to the next point: WHY THE HELL did Persi/PP check Creature instead of Blawb who escaped the noose bc of that claim? A N1 Doc was very unlikely to get NK'd for the rest of the game, so it only makes sense to check THEM to make sure this was a townie slot in LyLo. Instead, they went and checked Creature who was globally Town Read anyway??? There were also others who were pushing/scum reading Persi at that point (DVM & Transcend for instance) and PP didn't check them either. That doesn't make sense AT ALL.

@ Trans: Yeah, unlike this masterpiece, which smells like lilacs on a summer morn

VOTE: chilledtea

People in glass houses and such...

Lol

If you thought the vote was so bad, why didn't you vote me when i collected votes?

Wait, what's that?

Did you boost my "bad vote" closer to the noose?

Lmao.

Transcend said enough about this one. Persi was obviously spreading doubt on everyone like as if he was handing out promotional vouchers.

I'd say the real danger is if the N1 cop who claims is actually scum.

Does that even work out.

It did the last time I played this setup.

karnos...evil bastard.

Funnily enough that move inspired you and you followed his example!

In regards to trying to confirm myself, could N1 cop (if we have one) claim, investigate me, and I'll cover them?

Another REALLY string town post from Blawb. This would have confirmed them and "hypothetically" made PP unlynchable till LyLo as well (the very situation we're in), unless scum decided to off Blawb earlier to get rid of a confirmed slot and then try to shade the Cop as being scum who obviously knew Blawb wasn't their p.

So, you're telling me "Town" PP gave a pass on an explicit offer to check the claimed Doctor who he suspected was scum AND was being pushed by, while that claimed Dr escaped the lynch by claiming while @L-2, and went on to check a global TR in its stead? I can ONLY understand this if PP did out himself counting on Blawb's protection, which he didn't.

P.S. @Blawb: The rest of that post doesn't make any sense, and only tells me you didn't understand the setup still. If they kill you on N1, how does that "expose" the Cop you've already protected?

Anyway, let's carry on. Lots of distancing between scum, but it's worthy to note arun also was 5th vote on PP with Blawb being 1st, which gave me doubts, especially when it got to L-1 with Creature voting there as well and aron not moving off it. Sson enough the wagon dissipated though while one formed on Creature, and then Kyouko came up with 816. So, 4 scum reads that include BOTH his scum p's? I don't think so.

The Blawb stance at the time was even so antagonizing it could've turned the tide back unto him, and if he was lynched and flipped red it would have all but confirmed PP as town, so that doesn't make sense coming from scum either, and with th PP wagon shrinking to only 3 it isn't customary for there to be 2 scum on it when it's a town slot, but makes much more sense for there to be one scum distancing from their p still.

EOD1

There's also this little matter about the N1 kill. TTTT was heavily scum reading PP, and I feel he was killed just in case he was a Cop who acted "the natural way" and checked his TOP SCUM READ.

Doubt scum would kill someone that was suspicious of them, so I'm more interested into who he town-read or even didn't read at all.

There's where you went astray, my friend. In a setup with an average of 50% of the town being Cops (4-6 out of 10) you do NOT shoot someone who TRs you on N1. If scum you always want to avoid being mod-confirmed scum, so you kill the one person who was on your wagon that you didn't know their role. Now the last 3 on PP were you, aron and TTTT 9who even moved to Titus just before the end of the day, making it 99% unlikely that you are scum with aron on Town!PP). Scum knew you were a Doc (that's what you claimed and you had no reason to lie about it if you're town), and they knew aron was one of their own, so WHO is left for them to shoot in order to avoid a mishap?

Scum ending the day on 3 different players (or on 2 different players and one not voting) is the classic day ending. I hardly ever see 2/2 scum (of the same team) at the end of the day even in larges.

I oppose flash lynching but not against Blawb lynch.

Another clear indication Blawb is town. Scum is promoting for that lynch while avoiding the wagon themselves is bad enough, but when they refuse to hammer because another scum p is already on it it screams volumes. However, let's pretend for a minute that I don't have reads on either Blawb/PP already. How likely is it that an all town wagon of 5 would form on scum (w/o a guilty on them) this early into the day? And how likely is it for scum not to hammer their p for town cred at this point? It is also usually done to shut them up ASAP when it looks like they're getting lynched anyway.

VOTE: penguin

Can we start this up again?

Meanwhile, this is what scum do in situations like these. cast their vote on their p for distancing when there's absolutely no danger of it turning into a real wagon. At this point it looked like Blawp was going to be lynched no matter what, and scum were counting on town to finish him off and be Sr for it. (Classic: You flash!lynched town, so there must be 2-3 scum on that wagon. THAT is why both flipped scum refused to hammer.).

I single them out, and Arona tries to show that they are on different teams. How are you guys not seeing this?

100% agreed.

But this is even better (from the same post):

Anyways, if you wanna Lynch me, fine. But if that gives me any credibility whatsoever, just at least take a harder look into PP and Aaron's for me. You don't even have to Lynch them; just go through their ISO's when I flip town, and try to see where I'm coming from.

this is the towniest thing I read all game so far. I'll be damned if scum was so close to the noose in THIS setup and only singled out TWO slots to inspect after they flip. Unless -of course- it was dumb scum trying to limit their team future pushes, and even then they wouldn't include a p in the two.

Why Transcend? Why do you think Blawb is a mislynch?

Again, trying to promote the lynch while not being on it themselves!!!! If Blawb was scum and the wagon looked like it could dissipate you simply SHUT UP and let it dissipate!

His protect on me was laughable too.

Ahem. I'm well aware this is my slot, and I could have sworn notscience ASKED to be doctored. Yeah. Found it quoted later, It was 947

VOTE: creature
Please answer me regarding why do you think Blawb is a mislynch and why did you vote Transcend

A wagon is forming on PP, and the NOT VOTING ALL DAY scum decides to join the OTHER counterwagon at this point, so as to try and save PP but -also- avoid being with him on the same wagon.

Chilled can you explain what made you change your mind on blawb?

LOL. You weren't even voting Blawb. CT joined the wagon STARTED BY YOU.

FTR: Blawb also joined the PP wagon, and AGAIN I can't see 2 scums spending so much time voting the same target (you may exclude certain players from this general rule though). The VC on 1185 is again a classic 3 scums on 3 different wagons.

No, it sounded like caught scum to me. He made the absolute safest claim to make. He made it before he got to L-1. Both of those things are not necessarily scum tells, but are things that scum are likely to do.

WRONG. Safest claim was N4/N5 something or the other. That way they are not a priority in scum's kill (i.e. explains why they live that long) and are not required to prove anything. Yes, they risked being lynched anyway (being probably unneeded) but then N1 Doctor would have been suicidal if a N1 Cop did claim at the spot and decided to investigate them. (in this case if they shoot the cop they're outed, and if they don't they're outed).

Spoiler: Not directly related to the case:

Wasn't that whom blawb was supposed to protect if fire was town?

Yeah, but I didn't.

Can we just agree on a Lynch please? Our D1 lynch was shitty; let's not do that again.

And now I'm all confused. Why did notscience think you did? I would also like notscience to explain post-game how he townread aron and voted him in the same post. It's irrelevant to my reads, but it helps with meta reading and stuff in future games.

I also don't quite get why scum turned on aruna by the end of D1. I didn't see the need for Kyouto to bus there. PP might have had to after he was linked strongly by 2-3 players to aruna, and -in the off chance which is now worth about 0.001% that Blawb is the scum of the two- I don't see why he hammered either.

Bottom line, this bus was all sorts of weird at that point.

I am Night 2 cop. I investigated Titus and found town.

WAIT A FRIGGIN' MINUTE! I thought

I

got the inno on Titus on N2!!!

Not sure why scum killed Creature. Not going to think about it.

Yeah, I'm falling asleep and can't be bothered to figure is one out either. 14 more pages to go.

Urghh....I am night 2 cop and I investigated titus as well.

WTF????

Im ditto with the other two, will show crumbs shortly.

I would not have believed this had I not witnessed it myself!!! OMG!!!!

So everyone copped me? Like really?

You're a menace when you're scum!

Eyeballing this.

VOTE: PP

FINALLY!

One in {Flubber, kyouko} one in {chilled, penguin}

Imo.

Yup. Good lad.

Sort of unrelated quote, was going to comment on that at first until I saw chilled say Blawb was still suspicious in a later post and saw creature calling Blawb a mislynch.

VOTE: Blawb

For the love of God! It can't be more obvious. Avoiding the lynch wagon bc PP is on it, but not wanting to bring PP to L-1 (thus risking another unnecessary bus), so they start a new wagon from scratch on someone they've just town cased on the previous post!

Like, if Blawb was Kyouko's p, why the hell vote him when the PP wagon is available? Why not hammer (or state intention to) on CT? OK.. I think I'm conf!biasing already, but that's because EVERYTHING I READ points to Town!Blawb and Scum!PP. I can't help it anymore.

Oh, and after pleas from everyone to put both wagons level and let notscience decide the hammer, Kyouko decides to ignore them all and declares intention to hammer CT. Great!

Kinda sorta disagree, but that's a problem for tomorrow after PP is lynched (@notscience...).

More town points. (I guess by now you have more than the full mark??)

PP / CK scum squad imo. Notty, just hammer PP please. No need for the theatrics.

There goes the bonus from the previous quote.

Why'd you hammer chilled over PP? or was PP even L-1 anymore? Not that I disagree but it sounds like chilled's town

Then the yesterday hammer was sketchy. PP states a gut scum read on Blawb (gut???!!!) but somehow is easily swayed off it to the point he votes WITH Blawb.

My final conclusion is:

VOTE: Scratch that for now

[Almost50]

VOTE: PP

@Blawb: I still don't understand the relevance between nonscience replacement and the slot being confirmed.

@PP: Sorry to have dropped in to spoil your party. I know I get irritated when I'm cruising as scum only to get a late replacement catching me. Blawb was all over you from the start, but I'm not sure where notscience would have stood.

[Almost50]

I really didn't suspect any townies other than CK and texcat. I've only had 5 suspicions this game, and 3 of them were scum. PP, Arona, CK, SSBM, and texcat. Meanwhile, PP has just gone with the flow this entire game.

That really doesn't count. As scum you already know who's who. The thing is yours looked like genuine pushes on scum, while PP's looked like forced distancing. I still don't get why aruna was bussed. Things were looking good for another mislynch at the time.

[Almost50]

@Blawb:

OIC. Now I got what you mean about the replacement. Also, I have my good days and I have bad ones. When I'm one of my bad days I genuinely look like a moron.

[Almost50]

I'll also be here to field any questions. This was my first moderated game, how did I handle it?

I say you did GREAT. The VC were frequent enough, and the flip flavour was genuine. Also thanks to the players for actually playing the game. It made reading throw it enjoyable too. I hardly ever read through 69 pages in one go.

[Almost50]

Also 3 Cops on Titus was funny as hell. I was genuinely both confused then amazed when I was reading how that revealed.

[Almost50]

@Creatute:

Do I still

have to

or am I forgiven??



P-edit:

Thank you, guys. I probably just got lucky.