Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Unsight]

I think this is accurate.

Final Day 1 Vote Count

Titus (7): Not_Mafia, Wickedestjr, reinoe, Splashcloud, Paschendale, The Bulge, Bins
Splashcloud (3): Titus, Desperado, fuzzybutternut
Maruchan (1): snscompt1
Paschendale (1): bjc

VOTE: fuzzybutternut
- Unvoted in 453, called ShadedMelee scum in 475, next vote was Splashcloud on 492.

[Unsight]

Unsight, what are you going on about? I'm fairly certain I explained the reasoning behind all of my votes. I even declared exactly who I thought was scum.

You called

ShadedMelee

/

Titus

scum but didn't vote them. At a time when you were voting no one. If you're his scum partner then it makes sense that you'd want some plausible deniability "I thought he was scum in Post XYZ" but not want to bus him by actually voting him. Not my strongest read ever, but I've lynched people for less.

[Unsight]

I'd expect a 1-1-4 scenario if anything.

Interesting. Pasch is probably the mafia on the wagon. bjc's read was a really good one and 544 ( above this post ) may as well be a mafia claim. Normally I wouldn't really suspect bussing Day 1, but I think Pasch came so close to lynching that she said "Fuck it, I'd rather lose a scum partner than leave the game" and went with it.

That said, if you two are the remaining mafia I'd rather lynch you over her because she feels more useful.

Bulge looks really good as a werewolf.

As for the last werewolf, the biggest wagon on Bulge yesterday was: fuzzybutternut, Paschendale, Desperado, bjc, snscompt1,

Maruchan

Splashcloud. As I said, I don't

normally

consider a Day 1 bus to be a thing so that leaves wickedestjr, Bins, and and Not_Mafia. Bulge tunneled really hard on Not_Mafia so we can knock him off the list plus his play is awesome. I don't have a scum read on wickedestjr or Bins, and Bulge didn't vote either. I like that Bins voted Bulge on 253. It wasn't a wagon that was going to go anywhere at the time of her vote but it was well past RVS and the reason was decent imo. Wickedestjr's "I'm surprised I'm still alive" in 517 is weird to me but

probably

maybe not scummy. Either way they are both very active and that is many days away. And all of this paragraph is based on Bulge flipping Werewolf. If he doesn't then back to square one we go... well, square one minus one mafia team.

tl;dr:

Paschendale

,

fuzzybutternut

,

The Bulge

. All these people need to die. More votes on fuzzy plz.

PS: bjc was town as fuck and his reads were super good. He had ShadedMelee, Bulge, Pasch picked out super fast. If all 3 flip scum then the town owes him a ton for the upcoming win.

[Unsight]

Why is that you say everyone on Bugle's wagon isn't a werewolf. Isn't it possible someone was trying to distance themselves away from him?

It is possible. The only potential distancing I can see was snscompt1's quick jump from The Bulge to non-voting after Bulge said he could "guarantee" he was town ( which was a bizarre-as-hell post anyway ). It could just as easily have been cold feet so it didn't really stand out to me in my first read through. Even after a reread, I still feel that off-wagon is the smart place to look if Bulge flips scum.

[Unsight]

You say bulge looks really good as a werewolf, and then you vote me. You do realize that werewolves are a bigger threat than mafia, right? By not voting who you think is werewolf, you're actually a hindrance to the town.

VOTE: Unsight

The bus is real with this one.

Salty~

Put aside the OMGUS and help me answer two questions:

1) If Bulge is Wolf 1, who looks good as Wolf 2?
2) If Bulge is not a Wolf, whose votes look opportunistic from yesterday's wagons?

Those are the questions I'll be reading to answer tonight/tomorrow.

[Unsight]

1) If Bulge is Wolf 1, who looks good as Wolf 2?

Your slot does.

Reasons?

He had a running feud with bjc ( you can see it in 232 and 233 ). Probably doesn't help that my 3rd post in the game was to out him as scum, but I've always had trouble making friends.

[Unsight]

Moving on. Someone above said the Mafia are basically an anti-town masonry and that's probably a good way to look at it. I'm not used to setups where one scum faction can't night kill so where I'm normally "Any scum lynch is a town win" that changes the math around. In lieu of that:

VOTE: The Bulge

The thing that doesn't sit well with me is Post 319. When he was nearing lynch, he said he could

guarantee

he was town. snscompt1 immediately took his vote elsewhere. snscompt1 could have been jumping off his buddy's wagon or he may have read that post the same way I just did--soft Town Seer claim. The problem with this? The Bulge is still alive. Night kill analysis is WIFOM and usually not worth the time it takes to type, but I think the wolves would have to be asleep at the wheel to not take that bait. Unless he's one of them.

Interestingly enough, if The Bulge flips town then I think snscompt1 is almost 100% guaranteed to be town ( Not Werewolf for the Paschendales out there who still want to pretend they're not scum ). The reverse isn't necessarily true but it does look very bad for snscompt1 if The Bulge flips scum.

As a final bit of trivia to consider, the only two people to

never

vote The Bulge ( other than himself ) were Wickedestjr and Not_Mafia.

[Unsight]

Why would you point this out? Regardless of how obvious you found it, do you really think it's so unlikely the wolves didn't catch on to it that was worth potentially outing the seer?

I couldn't analyze snscompt1's sudden jump from the Day 1 Bulge wagon without drawing attention to it and I'm not quite arrogant enough to assume I'm the smartest person in the room so if I see something then nine times out of ten someone else saw it too.

[Unsight]

I'm still leaning Bulge, but I'm trying to see who his partner would be.

Unsight, you asked this before. Who do you think Bulge's partner is?

Let's go down the line. We'll ignore Pasch/fuzzy since they're mafia.

Not_Mafia

- Battled Bulge for part of Day 1. Voted Pasch while agreeing with fuzzy's vote on Bulge, but explained it well in Post 264. It stands out to me that he and Bulge had a back and forth that resulted in Bulge voting him but not the reverse. I'm very much used to people coming down on me when I call them scum so it's kind of weird. I like his play otherwise though.

Splashcloud / maruchan

- Jumped on the Bulge wagon very late. WIFOM be damned, 99 times out of 100 scum don't do that. Especially Day 1 when they're under 0 pressure. If Bulge flips scum then this slot looks really clean. If Bulge flips town then it goes the other way real fast.

Bins

- You weren't on the big Bulge wagon. You noted Bulge was posting in other threads and then voted him here. I think if Bulge flips town, that looks bad for you. If Bulge flips scum then it's cool.

Wickedestjr

- Never voted Bulge. Ever. Very defensive as a player which is a light scum tell for me. His reads seem similar to mine on fuzzy/pasch, but he uses more words and says it more politely than I do. I don't feel like he's put the same level of effort into wolf hunting as he's put into mafia hunting ( granted the mafia were pretty easy to spot ). May be scummy or may just be my intense hatred of reading walls of text.

Desperado

- I don't see Desperado being Wolf #2 to a Bulge Wolf #1.

Riddleton / snscompt1

- The only thing that gets me is that wagon hop. I think if Bulge flips town then this slot is town is town as well. I don't know that the reverse is necessarily true.

Too many maybe and results pending Bulge flip for me.

What do you think?

[Unsight]

3. Werewolves win when they comprise half the town and at least one pro-town player remains. If werewolves comprise one half and mafia comprise the other half, then mafia wins. That makes mafia more threatening to the werewolves, because they currently CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill a mafia goon. If werewolves lose a member then they CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill both mafia goons.

This is the greatest thing ever.

I feel like I just had an epiphany.

The Werewolves are gonna kill the mafia for us. All we need to do as a town is say "We're not lynching Pasch/Fuzzy." The instant we say that, the Werewolves cannot win this game without wasting two night kills on them.

[Unsight]

I'm in awe.

Don't be. It's a pretty weak post filled with "Unsight is confident in her reads ergo scum" and "Unsight provides information ergo scum." Lots of null tells painted as scum tells and far too many words saying far too little.

[Unsight]

Unsight is guilty of IIoA = Information Instead of Analysis, one of my favorite scum tells.

Also this is worth noting because it's potentially very scummy.

Scum will often try to stay below the radar by posting "useful" information, non-controversial material, and avoiding giving reads. In essence they provide posts filled with null or empty content that can often be made up of setup and role speculation. While that's sometimes useful for the town, a player who produces a lot of that instead of genuine scum hunting is often scum.

That's the tell.

Adding in additional information noticed after heavy wagon analysis that may not be immediately important but could eventually become relevant

is not the tell.

Either Wickedestjr doesn't understand his own favorite scum tell or he's deliberately misusing it and didn't expect to be called out on it.

[Unsight]

I figured out who the seer was from your counter wagoning, so yes there is and was a risk

This is why we should have lynched Bulge 4 pages ago.

[Unsight]

I'm just amazed that Fuzzy made it to end game.

He should have been dead the moment the last wolf got the rope.