Open 535: Enemy of My Enemy

[erneiz_hyde]

VOTE: beastcharizard

For not being a dragon.

[erneiz_hyde]

@thenewearth: Could you change the topic icon showing the game is in night phase? It's distracting me.

Oh wow, I didn't realize such icon existed. Has it always been there before?

[erneiz_hyde]

I don't think we'd automatically lose even at 4/2/2. The 4 scums are from 2 different factions so we can't just straightly assume scum=4.
If we continue to assume worst case after 6/2/2, it'd become 3/2/2 but it shouldn't be game over yet. Because if then a miracle happens (correct lynch, and the 2 scum factions kill each other), it could still become 3/1...oh wait...

Will the scum night kill still fire even if they end up killed by the other side? If it does fire, then I'm guessing not even 3/2/2 is MyLo...

I'm seriously confused now, I'm not used to 3 factions game. Can someone clarify how this works?

[erneiz_hyde]

@MOD: confirm please, will scum NK still fire when he is a target of NK himself?

OK, with that out of the way...

UNVOTE

Because we're out of RVS.

I'm currently more suspicious of BwB than Banakai. Seems to me like he created a bait to divert attention away from him, which the unsuspecting Madman took and Charizard gently pushing it as his secret buddy.
But I would still like to see Banakai's explanation on his accusation.

Btw Madman, try not to be too haphazard with your posts. carefully edit and look at the preview before hitting the Submit button. You're too much of a liability with that much omgus baiting.

[erneiz_hyde]

Also, I knew what the setup was but I didn't realize about the mechanic

I'm trying to make sense of this. How can you know the setup but not the mechanics? Elaborate a little more please.

No, I think Burke isn't defending himself because he's pissed off he has a wagon on him for no reason on page 3.

My RVS vote had nothing in it, so it was useless. Oh well.

Unvote:

for now

I think this is suspicious. Holding on to an RVS vote could lead to a stealthy wagon making. It could be he planned to do that but Downey undermined that plan. But then again, about half the players here are still holding their RVS votes, so maybe this isn't more than a gut feeling...

What I don't like about Burke:

His #8 gave me a weird vibe, so I decided to put my vote on him. Then his #10 was a really weird reaction, I thought. He called me out for an apparent OMGUS-voe, while his vote was definitely no less OMGUS than mine. But then he also claims that his vote on me is still RVS, while also saying that his vote will stay on me until I explain my reasoning.

And then all of a sudden in #18 he goes back to RVS'ing as if nothing happened. And then finally he puts his vote on Banakai in #37 for not knowing the setup. Yet another RVS vote? An actual vote? Or just trying to get the spotlight away from him?

Nice to see you being on the same page with me.

-Cirno

For all your joke about buses, that's a nice bus you have yourself.


Also, another gut feeling, but now that I read back on it, I'm sensing something from this TvK's post #33
It was done in a joking manner, but I'm not sure if he even need to point that out. OTOH, he asked a question, which I'm pretty sure that's addressed to Burke, but he never replied. And he seems okay with it as well.
I'm thinking of a scenario where Burke started by RVS-ing his scum partner TvK for cover, but can't help but be baited out by my RVS about Charizard...


So to sum up my thoughts up till now,
FoS: Burke>TvK=TSO=Team 9>Charizard. So,

VOTE:BwBurke

Also, if RM is scum, then he's either fake-dumbing or he really is dumb. He's probably town, but he's such an obvious red herring......

Anyways, Burke you should start explaining yourself now.

[erneiz_hyde]

Sorry, I wrote up a reply for Daniel's question to me but somehow my browser crashed and it crashed my post and mood along with it.

Will get back to it a bit later.

[erneiz_hyde]

To answer Daniel's question to me.

99 Holy crap this hyde post is scummy as hell. Comments on post 62 uselessly, its fake contribution. His analysis of the TSO unvote is terrible, because RVS wagons make up a wagon, you must keep them there? First you have to tell us why the wagon is good to begin with. Then. I ask you this, why is a wagon good when it is built up from RVS votes instead of legit votes? And the opportunistic comparison of players without explanation. Horrific. Lastly, his whole "clearing" of RM with the whole "red herring idea"

Simply put, my way of playing is by thinking out loud, rather than to try and convince people. My experience playing this game is still short so I still tend to explore possibilities that the more experienced player know are useless. I still don't really understand how one can know the setup but not the mechanics, but this late into the game I guess it doesn't matter anymore.

The thing with TSO was like this: I thought of a scenario where a scum votes in RVS and stays there, then opportunistically builds a seemingly legit case around it, hence stealth wagoning. I thought it scummy to start scumhunting without removing the RVS, and only do so AFTER being pressured to do it. But I deny my own line of thought by pointing out that at the time half the players were still holding their RVS, so it's most likely just a gut feeling. Thinking out loud.

Also, since I am not a hydra, that FoS was a summary of all my previous posts, please read them for explanations. If you've done so, then ask me if there's anything unclear.

About RM, I wasn't "clearing" him, I was disgruntled. I think it's a pretty natural reaction by the way he plays up till then and now. His actions were too disruptive irrespective of his alignment. If he's town, he and his antics will most likely remain until the end unless we lynch him, while if he's scum then it'll basically be an omgus lynch which will probably leave a bad aftertaste.

Now let me ask you some questions as well.

29 Scumpost. "Wait is this serious" captain obvious post. Rational just made my scumlist.

Your quote there is about team9 but then FoS RM instead. Why? If you merely misread/mistyped the poster then Team9 should be in your FoS, but he's in your townlist.

Early town reads: Team 9, Jordan

=====================

ALL HOP ON THIS BW
VOTE: Banakai

Confirming

VOTE: Banakai

I'm...not sure what to make of this. Now they're both omgusing.
I need to do another reread.......

[erneiz_hyde]

TvK is delusional or scum here.

Can you explain why? I kind of expected the same thing as him.

[erneiz_hyde]

so uh sorry I'm late. Thinking out loud time.

So we have two people immediately claiming results. The 'immediately' part gives me town vibes, consequently so do the results as well. Burke flipped town as well so about all my FoS yesterday was potentially a misread. If there's room for doubt, then it'd be in either RM or Team9 and their results.

Actually now that I think about it, if scum is going to claim results anyway, they have to do that as early as possible because claiming late is rather suspicious and doesn't really help them. Ah now I see what Jordan and RBD meant, the messengers themselves are wifom material. Now how about the possibility of fake claiming results? Is there a scenario where doing that is beneficial to scum? I certainly can't see any, so it may be safe to say the results themselves are legit.
===========================

Even after all that, I can't help but make this wifom analysis. The first strange point: why did RM even get a result? And on Banakai at that? They were both hot suspects during the 1st day and now RM is already very close to being lynched. I can't shake the feeling this was all a setup to ensure us lynching RM today.
Wait, what if he lies? What if RM and Banakai are scumteam and RM risked claiming and lie about the result to help clear Banakai? Is that a sensible thing for them to do, or is it too much of a stretch, considering RM's behavior yesterday?

I'll do a reread later. After that long break I kinda need a reminder of why RM was such a hot candidate in the first day. Bringing in some new perspective might help as well.

[erneiz_hyde]

why aren't you worried about us and beastcharizard then? all you point out is RM who's the main wagon at this time. the reason again seems kind of weird. this makes me think you're not legitimately scumhunting and just want to further the RM wagon

Frankly, I won't be as surprised if anyone other than RM got the results. It's not that I'm not worried about you and BC, just that this currently gets the most of my attention. One thing at a time.

And uh...how am I furthering the RM wagon when I'm clearing my suspicion from him? Just for the record, what I meant was RM is probably townie, and the rest is a scenario I thought IF he's actually scum. Even I can see it's a pretty long stretch, so bottom line is I don't really believe RM is scum. Were my words really that confusing?

Also, from a quick glance, I'm now reminded how RM's wagon came from how haphazard he acts. But if we learn anything from Burke's flip, it is about how bad play isn't really that much of a tell in this game.

[erneiz_hyde]

why wouldn't you be as surprised?
...
if you don't believe RM is scum why were you worried about him?

Because of RM's behavior in 1st day, and thus I can't read the motive behind giving a player like RM a result. To me, it seems like the scums "wasted" their investigation, or that they want to make damn sure RM's the lynch today. I'm worried because I'm not so keen on ending this day with RM's lynch, which nearly happened. On that note...

RM slot is still scum.

This rings an alarm to me. PL-ing RM was one thing, and this is another. Starting to have doubt on RBD's towniness...
===============

I would like EH and BC to tell me they think about each other.

Since currently I tend to think that outing a not-guilty result immediately=townie points, I also tend to think BC is not scum because he's Team9's result. Okay, he's only been cleared as not a werewolf, but for him to be mafia that means the maf seer investigate his own team mate. What's the point of that?

As for the reads on BC himself, I used to have a minor FoS on him based on gut. Then there was that hammer debacle at the end of the 1st day. I can understand the reluctance of being the hammer, but at that situation and that close to deadline strikes me as being over-cautious. However, between this and Team9's result, I'm thinking he's probably a scared townie.

[erneiz_hyde]

I dont know why people see EH as town, him "seeing alarm bells" in Rainbowdash's post about still thinking RM's slot is town is so freaking scummy with the

This rings an alarm to me. PL-ing RM was one thing, and this is another. Starting to have doubt on RBD's towniness...

Why is his towniness affected by his SCUM read on a slot? So if a player scum reads a slot, it disappears when he is replaced? She never asked for a pure PL she thought it was scum.
VOTE: erneiz_hyde

Now let me ask you some questions as well.

29 Scumpost. "Wait is this serious" captain obvious post. Rational just made my scumlist.

Your quote there is about team9 but then FoS RM instead. Why? If you merely misread/mistyped the poster then Team9 should be in your FoS, but he's in your townlist.

Early town reads: Team 9, Jordan

How about you answer my question from day 1 first? Because between this new post and the old one addressed there, either you deliberately and selectively twists posts or you have a reading comprehension issues. Added with lurking it's really hard to not see you as scum now.

RBD's post about slot is scummy to me because she said it before the replacement came in, giving him no chance. I reasoned RM getting a result was because someone wants to make

damn sure

he is the lynch today, and that post of RBD certainly gives me that impression.

I'm now picturing RBD and DB as scumteam. One actively pushes a wagon and one weeds out opposition to said wagon and to prepare the next one.

[erneiz_hyde]

Honestly, when there's a player as disruptive as RM and someone can claim to be lynching them as scum instead of some form of PL, I take that with a grain of salt. Also, meager as it may, but from my experience playing this game in this site it was

never

the case that a player that looks so obviously scum and/or anti-town to actually

be

scum. So you could say it's also a paranoid policy of mine regarding RM's actions. And the feeling is reinforced further when Burke flipped town yesterday.

[erneiz_hyde]

Sorry, prod dodging. Been a busy weekend and still not quite up to the mood for this. I will say that the lack of action from Grey is starting to worry even me, much more than anything RM ever did.

[erneiz_hyde]

Sorry I'm late. For some reason sometimes I can't connect to this site, not sure if the problem's on my end or the site.

Anyways, I can agree to a Grey lynch as a lurker PL. Though this outcome makes me wonder if RM should've been mod-killed instead (kinda makes me wonder how severe one must be to get mod-killed). Would've saved everyone's time and energy.

Any lynch other than this is impossible by now and it doesn't seem we can extract any more information for today so I don't think there's any point prolonging this stale further.

VOTE: Greygnarl

[erneiz_hyde]

Weird, pretty sure that wasn't there the last time I see. And what does it mean Banakai hasn't picked up his role PM? What has he been doing here the whole time then?

[erneiz_hyde]

Sorry I'm late.

OK, so BC gets a result and Aegor actually claimed WW. Now he makes a proposal to not lynch him today and try to lynch maf instead. I don't really buy it. If we actually lynch a mafia today, he will not kill the other mafia nor will mafia kill him because that will result in automatic town win (he already claimed WW after all). It's a ploy to dwindle the number of townie, because scums can make kill as long as there's one member left.

Beginning a day in 2-1-1 is an auto town lose period. The game only continues to determine which scum wins or if they're draw.

[erneiz_hyde]

EBWOP: Actually, it really boils down to a 1 on 1 scum duel, with the two townies as mere bullets to manipulate, if we ever end up in 2-1-1.

It was a nice try on his part, but anyways, for good measure, I will put him back on L-1.

Vote:Aegor

3-2 and 2-1 lylo may be hard, but that's our better option than leaving him alive and, I dare say, inevitably end up in 2-1-1.

[erneiz_hyde]

.........

oh wow, that's eye opening. But then, I don't really get what's stopping the scum to do option Yomi 3 and make everyone dead. They don't want to lose either, so a draw with all townies dead seems to be good enough results. or worse, both of them don't NK and then we're at a standstill.

[erneiz_hyde]

I mean, they can just agree during the day to NK both townies resulting in a draw. sorry, I guess that's still in yomi 2. So, what's stopping them then? I certainly don't see a situation where town can auto-win when both sides of scum is still going.

[erneiz_hyde]

Two votes on me and both mounts to pretty much gut feelings. Well, one of the is confirmed WW so not a surprise there. Though, Aegor trying to lynch scum means he has every bit of intention of killing townie tonight. At least, it brings his usefulness to town into question.

Though I admit I have been playing very bad in this game, with almost none of my reads being correct. I even strongly read RM as town and RBD as scum, can't get any more wrong than that. I still think not lynching Aegor today is basically trading one poison with another, but I can see lynching him is not going to happen today, so I'll vote for my next best.

Vote:No Lynch

the only reason we keep Aegor alive is so he can shoot scum. If we lynch scum today then he will undoubtedly kill townie, undermining the reason we keep him alive in the first place. Might as well give him a chance while not risking a mislynch ourselves. It might result in 2-2-1, after which if we can actually lynch maf, will start the scum's night in dilemma, which might just result in us winning. Maf might just shoot Aegor, but they have no way of knowing who he targets. 3-1 is harder on scum than it is for townie, so I'm guessing they wouldn't risk making it a 3-1.

Though my current scum candidate is: bubbajack and DB, because bubba cleared DB for a weird reason and probably because he's his scummate.
=====================

Just in case I would like to ask this to mod once again, since you didn't reply when I asked in 1st day, though sorry if it's a bit lengthy:

@MOD: I would like to ask for a confirmation. The wording on the setup mechanics about scum Night Kills are: "Each night phase, one of you or your partner may perform the factional kill". Does this mean the one doing the killing must actually be alive for the kill to go through, or will the kill occur anyway even if no one in that faction is left, enabling scum crossfire? Will the only scums left shooting each other actually resolve in both of them dead, or will the one who first make the kill live?

If it is a question you cannot answer for any reason then please say so instead of a silence, please. Thank you.

[erneiz_hyde]

At this rate there's not gonna be any tomorrow unless Aegor actually managed to shoot scum.

No lynch is a no no. The reason we keep Aegor alive is so we get two shots at killing a mafia. With the lynch today, we have a 40% chance of lynching mafia (2 maf out of 5 town). If we lynch town, Aegor has a 50% chance of shooting mafia. Together, that's a 70% chance of killing a mafia. On the other hand, no lynching gives only Aegor the chance to shoot mafia, while that chance is also reduced to 40%. Mafia will likely shoot Aegor, so there's a 60% chance of the next day starting 2 mafia vs 2 town, ergo a mafia win.

The base for such a seemingly good chance is we sacrifice 1 townie for it. And you didn't do the math properly either. The only point where we have a 50-50 chance is when there's equal number of us and them. However if we and Aegor both lynch townie today, that means instant game over. Is that higher chance to shoot scum really worth that? I don't think so.

If we're talking probability, I still think no lynch is the better option for today, because then there's

ZERO

chance that we instantly lose tonight, while we have over 70% chance to instantly lose if we lynch anyone today. Even if the worst happened and we end up in 2-2-1, that's also the aforementioned point where we have 50-50 chance, the highest chance we'll ever get, with the added bonus of them going in a dilemma at night so we only need to guess right that one time.
At the very least, if I am to be lynched anyway (over gut feelings! and I thought my play was bad), let Aegor NK me instead.

I say again, at this situation lynching anyone today will only benefit either side of scums, and very little to us. Both of them have incentive to see that today ends in a lynch.

[erneiz_hyde]

Assuming NL 4 town, 2 maf, 1 WW. There are seven players.

A lynch could end it tonight if we lynch scum and Aegor shoots scum (a hint, he will be trying not to.) or if we lynch town and Aegor shoots town. I don't think either case is likely. A No Lynch today could end it with the lynch tomorrow, and we don't have to worry about whether Aegor will be shooting for town or scum because right now he needs to kill scum.

Why wouldn't he try to hit scum?

Because he would lose. If we lynch scum today, Aegor

MUST

(repeat, MUST, emphasis MUST here) shoot town to avoid himself losing. Should he 'misfire' then and shoot scum, the next day everyone will lynch him immediately no questions asked. While that is a dream come true, there is a very slim chance of that happening. Remember, while Aegor may offer his help for now, he is by no means a pro-town player. He'll still try to win as long as he's alive.

Why don't we lynch someone who we think is scum though? I understand we would get the lynch tomorrow, but wouldn't it be better to lynch a scum and have 2 townies or 1 townie and 1 ww die?

It's sad, but lynch anyone today (and I mean ANYONE), then at least a total of two townies are going to die regardless, with a decent chance of a third townie dying as well. The only option where we have a chance (not a guarantee, but still a real chance) to limit townie death to 1 is if we NL today and force Aegor to shoot scum.

[erneiz_hyde]

I stilll don't like maafia and WW choosing the fate of the game...

That's kinda weird coming from someone who agreed to let Aegor live in the first place

For the record, lynching Aegor also guarantees that only one townie will die tonight. But it will also guarantee us to end in lylo, which we're trying to avoid in the first place. And even if we succeed in lynching maf then, what awaits us is another mylo. Not the best course of action when we can win in just one move tomorrow.

[erneiz_hyde]

And a chance at winning.

Haven't you read my post about how this is close to impossible?


To answer JD, my order of preference for now:
1. No Lynch
2. Lynch Dr.P
3. Lynch Bubba
4. Lynch Mind

I have no qualms whatsoever in just waiting for the deadline, and I don't think I will change my mind nor add any more content for today. Barring any extraordinary event, expect me to just prod dodge for the rest of the day.

[erneiz_hyde]

Alright. So I am definitely in agreement that a no lynch doesn't work. Ww can Shoot who he wants mafia shoots who they want. They decide to partner and draw they shoot two town. Town looses 2-2-1.

I have doubts that the two scums would partner. Because it means the mafs will have to intentionally let one of theirs to be killed to create a 2-1-1, the only scenario left where they can both draw. Now why would maf do that if they can just win while they still have both members? And not to mention the identity of both scums are still a mystery, so if they want to deal, they'll have to do that today before the night starts, in front of everyone. Which is a stupid suicidal move on the maf's side.

One of the mafs will only die either by our lynch or ww NK. And in either case I doubt the maf will then give up their potentially-winning anonymity to strike a "draw" deal.

Problem is if we lynch mafia same thing happens is more likely. 4-1 is much more in towns favor. Draw is agreed two town dead. Town looses 2-1-1. They nl and shoot town. No dilemma as both parties are outed and they loose if they go against plan. Same as above.

Now that I think about it, I agree there would be no dilemma, but only becayse the maf's identity is still not out. At that situation, Aegor is a kingmaker because whoever he decides to kill will determine whether it's a maf win or town win, because maf with his anonimity will definitely decide to kill Aegor.

I read again the link aegor gave about dilemmas, it does indeed says the dilemma only occurs if both parties are outed. However as things are now, there is no sure way to out a maf member, it will be a wifom hell. It would've been at least possible had RM outed a mafia, but sadly that didn't happen.

Damn, so even if we NL now, relies on Aegor to shoot scum and lynch maf tomorrow, it could still result in us losing because Aegor will still need to shoot scum...

So uh...why did we decide to let aegor live again?

[erneiz_hyde]

Sorry I'm late. Reading through a bit, surprised we only have one death last night. My guess is both scums probably targeted the same guy, because I don't really see any benefit for scums to NK.

With 3-2-1, it means Aegor is absolutely off limits. I was surprised bubba voted him immediately, though he explained that he miscounted. Not really buying it though.

Now that Mind is dead and proven townie, by PoE that means my suspects are down to Dr.P and Bubba. With that in mind, I'm guessing post #662 is a slip. Dr.P tried to remind his partner not to do something so stupidly obvious, but he missed that bubba unvoted already. My guess is he missed it because he stopped reading further after looking and replying to JD's post. There's also JD's case on Dr.P, which I agree with. DB did the same thing he's doing now: omitting stuffs and using misleading words to make a case. As for bubba, his posts #650, #652, and #654 are what gives me scum vibes. Mafia is very close to winning so I think they're probably feeling gloated, and probably not amused with Aegor's kill. These posts taunting Aegor gives that impression.