Open 357: Scumhunter's Speed 8P

[zMuffinMan]

/confirm

What kind of bastard mod makes me a jester in an open setup that isn't supposed to have a jester?

[zMuffinMan]

I am obvtown, though.

[zMuffinMan]

Look how lighthearted I am.

[zMuffinMan]

p sure the game hasn't started.

[zMuffinMan]

catching up tonight.

[zMuffinMan]

town reads on kondi, glass, whiskers

scum reads on trevor, guy

rest somewhere in the middle

i'll flesh this out soon

[zMuffinMan]

@mod,

VC plx

Whiskers mafia: Post 66 is full of questions that could have been easily answered if she actually would have read my post. In Post 76, she happens to apparently not read my most recent post, where I stated to have used bad choice of words in my question. And, in Post 84, she obviously knows I'm scum, but she hasn't laid down a vote yet. Not bad for a Page 4 suspicion, especially in a game like this.

this is weak. especially the part about #84, especially since whiskers explained the lack of voting in #81.

did you have a reason for thinking whiskers was scum when you first voted or was that purely based on how much you liked whiskers as a player?

also, what do you think of trevor?



btw, do you really think matt's "lol there's 2 scum" thing is a town slip when it explicitly states in this thread there's 3 scum (and it explicitly stated in the signup thread there's 3 scum)? it looks fake.

[zMuffinMan]

VOTE: Trevor

[zMuffinMan]

Please note that I would be the first to go, were I scum. I almost got lynched, and I'll likely almost get lynched again. Scum will leave me around for a mislynch, but will kill me first for being "a bad player."

When Trevor flips scum, I wonder if his partners will kill Kondi or leave kondi and hope the towncredit Trevor is trying to give him is successful.

Just to be clear, you've changed your mind and now think Kondi is town? Or you don't understand the mechanics of the game? Or what was this even supposed to mean?

I'd also like to see how Trevor reacts and to see his dying thoughts before he gets hammered on.

So what

are

your thoughts on how he reacted to it?

Right, right, but you didn't answer my question. See, Juls, I think that you're scum.

Why? Is this

with

Kondi and Trevor?

[zMuffinMan]

I don't think kondi is town, I didn't think he was before, I'm missing the fantastic towntell he's made. The only thing I can find is that Trevor is calling him town, as though trying to trick us into thinking he's trying to clear his scumbuddy.

How exactly would Trevor "clear" his scumbuddy by calling him town?

You're really not getting this? If Trevor flips scum, scum has to kill a teammate. If I am scum, I will be killed, Probably, by my faction, as I am the "weakest link."
If Trevor flips town, the scum gets to kill a townie. I will not be the kill there, almost for certain, as I am the "weakest link."

Oh, I know what you were getting at. I just think it's funny.

If Trevor flips scum, this means nothing.

If Trevor flips town and you're not dead tomorrow, you'll be pushing the idea that you

must

be town because you didn't kill yourself.

Muffinman, where have you been for the last several days?

Busy. I didn't had much time to post over the weekend. In any of my games.

Considering there was a period of about 60 hours where 4 players in this game weren't posting (you being one of them), I don't think see why you're criticising me in particular for activity.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm not really looking too deeply into what Trevor is saying about different people right now.

As for that 60-hour thing, I just remember looking at activity overview after one of my posts and seeing two players who hadn't posted in well over 2 days and 2 players who hadn't posted in over 1.5 days. Pretty sure it was after #125.

[zMuffinMan]

You know what, I seriously want to lynch matt now. Completely ignoring me!

Is it just because matt is ignoring you, or is there anything else?

What did you think of his "there's 2 scum" supposed town-slip?

And does this mean you think Trevor is town?

Where the hell is Guy_Named_Riggs?

Kind of off-topic, but something I've never noticed before in activity overview is it has a V/LA column (and apparently he's V/LA until the 16th).

[zMuffinMan]

@Juls,

What are your reads, Juls?

Also,

I am feeling a strong gut read on glass.

Gut based on what exactly? If you can't put it in words, point to specific posts that make you feel this way. I had glass as a town read from his early posts. His latest posts have been pretty meh, though.


@whiskers,

As far as I can tell, this is why you think Juls is scum:

Juls is a sheep, happy to throw her vote whereever, and cautious not to leave you at L-1 for too long, lest you get hammered.

Your definition of "sheep" is skewed (she hasn't really been sheeping anyone this game), but other than that, I'm not sure how you think this makes her scum.

There's a day to the deadline. Throwing a vote on her and saying "scum is scum" doesn't help.

Do you think Trevor is town now?


@kondi,

What are your reads (other than "whiskers is scum"?)


@glass,

I don't think the trevor-juls interaction looks like scum-scum interaction. Why do you think she was bussing Trevor? Or what specifically about their interactions do you think makes it likely they're scum together?




As for my own reads...

I still think kondi and whiskers are town. I still think trevor is scum (I'm not buying the "woe is me, I've been hammered!" routine a couple pages back that seems to have led to people unvoting him). My reads on the rest of the game are a bit of a mess at the moment.

[zMuffinMan]

I have some thoughts on #247 but I want glass to respond to #246+#247 before I say anything about it.

[zMuffinMan]

Because trevor is scum and juls is scum. Unless there are two scum teams they are scum together it only makes sense that they are scum together.

...

So what connections do you think you saw that make them scum together? Or is this just a case of "they must be scum because they're scummy"?

/anxiously awaits zMuffinMan's thoughts on 247

The reason I was waiting for Glass to answer was because I didn't want to influence his answer with my own thoughts.

Basically, I went through Glass's ISO last night and the biggest thing I noticed was the lack of coherent explanation for his change in read of you - the only thing I noticed was that he started to call you scum who was bussing or afraid to bus trevor at some point. So I figured maybe he'd explain how your interaction with Trevor made sense from the perspective you're scum with him, because I could maybe see that as a logical explanation for the change in his read on you.

Instead, #251 didn't really address any of this - it's just a loud response with a lot of nonsense in it. His explanation for the read change was simply quoting you; "reads change" - and citing the fact that you're basing your read on gut as a reason for you being scum, which is a load of crap.



hold on

unvote

Doing some quick ISO reads.


@Juls, to be clear, you think Trevor is town and glass is scum? Or that Trevor is just less likely to be scum than glass?

[zMuffinMan]

trevor - glass, whiskers, kondi
glass - juls, trevor, projectmatt

not voting - guy, muffin

^ Just for reference since BB doesn't seem to be around.

[zMuffinMan]

trevor, reads list next post. plus explanations for any that have changed since the start of the game.

especially whiskers.

[zMuffinMan]

Juls- As much as I suspect bussing here, town for now

What does this mean?

Also, explain how you went from whiskers being scum at the beginning of the game to leaning town now. Explanations for your other reads would be cool, too.

---

Anyway, went through Glass's ISO. I can see glass-scum, actually.

I originally thought he was town because his early aggression and attacks gave me town vibes. I missed the fact that his push on Trevor was because of a "lie" about RVS voting. And he's been pushing that as a reason to vote Trevor the whole game. Every time glass has been questioned for explanations, he's either deflected or accused his accuser of being scum.

On the other hand, Trevor's done almost nothing in the way of scum hunting in this game. His reads are inconsistent and almost arbitrary - there's little-to-no explanation any time they change. All he's really done this game is AtE and OMGUS.



@Juls,

Who do you think is scum if Glass is town?

[zMuffinMan]

Actually, the reads I want explanations for are whiskers/glass/juls. Fully explain your reads on them and why they've changed at certain points in the game.

Also, when you talk about my general lack of contribution, you mean my post count?

[zMuffinMan]

It is a case of "they must be scum together because they are both scum and there is only one scumteam"

Why are they both scum?

I fail to see how you missed that since I must have said it a million times.

*shrug*

I vaguely recall it being mentioned but I didn't realise it was your only real point against him.

And yes, I subscribe to LaL.

That's a really weak excuse for pushing such a weak point.

I challenge you to find even one instance where I deflected a question.

I can't recall you being asked many questions this game, but you've deflected my question about Trevor-Juls interaction twice now, and #251 was full of strawmanning and deflection.

[zMuffinMan]

@Trevor,

I've seen you in the "Users browsing this forum" list twice since I asked you to give explanations for your reads.

Should I expect them some time soon? Or are they not coming?

[zMuffinMan]

I'm going to ignore the obvious irony of you calling someone else's attacks "terrible". What does the following mean...?

I really doubt a scum would push for two townies, knowing that Juls probably won't be lynched today.

Is that meant to be a read on Juls?

muffin gets scumpoints for jumping awfully quickly onto my bandwagon.

Is this the only reason you're leaning scum on me? Why didn't you say anything about it 7 pages ago?

Whiskers was a fine lynch for me earlier, not the scummiest but a good lynch with some votes already there.

Why?

I liked her entire reaction to the voting, especially pages 8-9.

Which reactions to what voting?

[zMuffinMan]

VOTE: glass

not going to be online again before the deadline hits.

[zMuffinMan]

rereading D1 this afternoon.

[zMuffinMan]

projectmatt+whiskers

[zMuffinMan]

matt's "there's two scum" thing early D1 seems like an attempt at faking a town tell, considering both the signup thread and this game thread explicitly stated there's 3 scum in this game (I'm going to assume he doesn't sign up to random games without checking what he's signing up for)

the L-1 vote on Trevor and the whole "don't hammer, or you will be lynched tomorrow!" thing seems faked

his interactions with Glass look like scum-scum interaction: glass pretty much said nothing to or about matt up until matt's vote on trevor and then matt magically became a "leaning scum" read, which looks like distancing. matt calls glass a town read early on, then... changed his mind later on? no explanation here.

whiskers seems like the most likely partner purely from poe and interactions.

[zMuffinMan]

I actually signed up because I liked the player list, I didn't bother checking what the setup was until the game thread was up. I looked at it, but as I pointed out already, I was really insanely sleepy\out of it when I thought there was two scum. I'm not sure what made me think that.

In your sleepiness, you read, "5 townies, 3 scum" and... then somehow came to the conclusion there's 2 scum. I don't believe this.

Trevor was towntelling. Glass's reaction to being fos'd was bad so I changed to Glass. It's pretty's simple.

^ What whiskers asked

[zMuffinMan]

...

If what you said is true, Trevor, wouldn't a Muffin lynch be better?

You said the two options are:
1. Muffin/GNR scumteam
2. GNR town.
Which implies that GNR can only be scum with Muffin. But Muffin can be scum without GNR. Explain.

please tell me you're kidding.

explain the logical leap here.

Answer Kondi's question please.

Do you think kondi's question actually has merit?



--

I feel like today he has towntold a lot more with his speculation on the nightkill as well as expecting to die.

What do you think he would have said as scum? Why do you think he would have said something different to what he did?

It's just the way, the tone that he reacted in came off as town.

Point to specific posts or posts specific quotes that made you think this.


--

As for the guy lynch, I'm uncomfortable with lynching someone who hasn't posted anything. It doesn't help that the players I think are most likely scum are voting him.

This feels like a quick wagon to LyLo.

[zMuffinMan]

My personal preference is he either posts content or the mod force-replaces him because he's said nothing game-related in the last 10 days, which is utterly ridiculous.

[zMuffinMan]

ftr, as a last resort, I'd lynch him over not lynching, but given there's just under 4 days to the deadline, there's time to wait it out.

[zMuffinMan]

prodge

waiting on gnr('s replacement) etc

[zMuffinMan]

prodge.

been busy today, catching up after i get back from a breakfast seminar tomorrow morning (roughly 12 hours from now)

[zMuffinMan]

VOTE: projectmatt

has anyone actually been reading matt's posts over the last couple pages?

[zMuffinMan]

@bionic

what's your read on matt?

why is kondi scum other than list thing + he wasn't voting glass? i don't really see any substance behind your case.



@kondi,

why do you think it's a 50/50 between matt and I? what do you think of the things i brought up about matt a few pages ago?

will you lynch matt today?


@whiskers

who do you think is scum?


@trevor

why is one of kondi/whiskers 'definitely' scum again? refresh me, i can't recall your reason/s for thinking this.



@matt

why did you vote kondi other than 'lolsheep'?
what about bionic's case swayed you?
why do you think i'm scum?

[zMuffinMan]

I clearly stated my reads in my first post.

you didn't, really. you said you thought kondi is scum and whiskers is a possible partner, and you have a town read on trevor, but that's about it.

what do you think of matt?

2. The incentive for scum to not bus is huge. Can't see why you think that has no substance.

you're making assumptions that aren't necessarily correct based on probabilities. whether your theory has substance to it is irrelevant.

Muffin, you need to explain to me what's wrong about my posts. You're obviously not READING the game with some of those questions, as I explained why I voted Kondi (for his reaction). It wasn't a case that swayed me, that's why I'm not voting Kondi anymore, Muffin.

oh, i read your supposed reason for the kondi vote. but in #401 you unvoted your top suspect. something he said must have swayed your opinion of him. you said you agreed with his logic on kondiscum. i'm wondering what you specifically agreed with. you voted kondi. now you're saying 'lol reaction-gambit' and you didn't think kondi was scum - i call bullshit. especially considering you called his reaction to your vote 'bad'.

now you're saying you're not sure whiskers is town anymore. presumably because of magic and pixies or something that can't be explained. but he's not a scum read for you, either, obviously, because i'm your only scum read, based on... something or other.

none of your reads have any foundation and you're free to mix and match based on tells and vibes that you can't be held accountable to because you never explain your reads.

[zMuffinMan]

When Bionic voted for Kondi, I jumped on for his REACTION, it's not even a gambit, it's just basic playing. This shouldn't be hard to grasp. His reaction WAS bad, but I mainly said it, to, again, see what he would say

that doesn't explain why you said his logic on kondi-scum makes sense.

I'm not sure if Whiskers is town anymore because she's taken a low profile and isn't contributing enough that I like. She's not a scum read either, though. Why should she be? I've gotten towntells in the past from everyone but you which makes me think that you're mafia but I'm still searching.

yeah... obviously your method for reading towntells is flawed if every player but me has dropped them.

I'd be willing to give you the foundation for all of my reads. Do you think I'm scum for not explaining some of them, Muffin?

no, i think you're scum for other reasons i've gone over a few times already. the fact that your reads lack foundation only adds to the suspicion. go ahead and explain them.

---

@trevor

what's your read on matt?

why are whiskers and kondi town now?

[zMuffinMan]

tbh i don't really care if i'm lynched today as long as matt is lynched tomorrow

[zMuffinMan]

of course he doesn't want me lynched now. he knows he's screwed after i'm lynched.

there's 17 hours left.

VOTE: zmuffinman

[zMuffinMan]

WIFOM beats that out, and Muffin knows it.

not really. i'm not the kind of player who would do this as scum.

i'm more cowardly and calculating as scum.

inb4 'lolwifom'

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think a kondi/bionicchop team makes sense

[zMuffinMan]

yeah ok well there's just under 6 hours left to the deadline.

and it's plurality if there's no majority.

which basically means whoever is active in the next 6 hours gets to decide who gets lynched.

i think it's currently

whiskers (1) - kondi
muffin (2) - trevor. muffin
kondi (1) - bionic

i would still prefer a matt lynch.

is anyone around?

[zMuffinMan]

VOTE: projectmatt

[zMuffinMan]

i don't particularly care whether you believe it. i'm not scum.

what's your read on matt?

[zMuffinMan]

i'm slightly lost right now. i thought the matt lynch would end the game. something isn't making sense right now

@trevor,

i'm not sure why you have such a hard-on for me, but i'm not scum.

why does bionic not hammering matt make him town?



@kondi, whiskers, bionic

why is trevor town?

other than 'lol-glass-was-trying-to-lynch-him' is there a reason that his overtly scummy play is being overlooked?

[zMuffinMan]

@kondi

if you thought trevor looked towny at the end of d1, why were you voting him?



as for my top two, i'm thinking trevor+1 right now. i'm iffy on the +1.

other pairings don't make much sense based on play so far (bionic-kondi and bionic-whiskers would require serious bussing on guy that doesn't make much sense and whiskers-kondi is a long-shot that doesn't make much sense) so he's scum by poe, not even taking into account his scummy play.

[zMuffinMan]

@whiskers

if you rule out the possibility of extreme bussing (i.e. any wagon that reached l-1 and could realistically have easily occurred which is really just my wagon and the guy wagon prior to him being replaced), objectively you're looking at

Trevor+Kondi
Trevor+Whiksers
Trevor+Bionicchop

Kondi+Whiskers
Kondi+zMuffinman

Bionicchop+zMuffinMan

as possible teams

kondi+bio- Sure, why not, but I really doubt neither Whiskers or muffin is scum.

why?

D1 in general, you were quiet and took Glass's side to the very end.

*shrug*

his early posts looked town

The selfvote seemed fake and unnecessary. If you were lynched yesterday (as town obviously), pmatt would probably have been lynched today, resulting in a scum win. Your push on pmatt was bad.

there was like 17 hours to the deadline when i self-voted; no other wagon had more than a single vote on it and i didn't think there was enough activity to get another lynch to occur.

at the time, i thought matt unvoting was a sign of nervous scum who knew he was screwed if my lynch went through. in retrospect, if i'd been lynched town would have been screwed unless matt could have dug himself out of the hole i'd put him in, so yeah, my push was 'bad'. i made a mistake and read him wrong. shit happens. my actions are justifiable, i just happened to be wrong.

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think kondi ever voted me