Open 353: The House on Meadowlark Drive

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Raindowdash

[Hoopla]

Weren't you supposed to vote me according to the sign up thread for the game? Why didn't you?

I thought that would be mean and seem like I had an agenda against you.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: What changed your mind from what you said in the Queue thread.

I don't know. It was a very impulsive decision. I thought about voting you, though, but just... didn't.

~~

On strategy. I don't think we shouldn't vote on who to vengekill today if we lynch a townie. We should trust the townie to make a correct shot, because this way it forces scum to use a daykill today or gamble on getting their 2-shot Goon killed without making a kill. The earlier scum use their potential shots, the better for town.

[Hoopla]

I think I'll join Shattered Viewpoint with a vote on Charlie.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Charlie

[Hoopla]

I find it odd that someone says they will vote a player and then change their mind for virtually no reason.

Would you have questioned me if I had chosen to follow through with voting you? Stop spinning something for the sake of it.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: I am paranoid and disappointed that you've ignored my not-random question directed towards you.

It wasn't a very good question. Do you

seriously

want me to answer it?

[Hoopla]

Biggest question I have about Hoopla is why she voting Charlie.

Junkposting with big walls about nothing. Or what I presume to be nothing - I didn't really read them. I suppose this is more a policy-vote for his playstyle until I get into the game properly.

[Hoopla]

@Whisper: I don't know Hoopla better. The last game I recall with Hoopla was she looked really town, sounded really town and was scum. She's a good player.

And the game before that you lynched me for a non-existent slip.

Maybe I am just one of those people you need to read oppositely.

[Hoopla]

It wasn't a very good question. Do you

seriously

want me to answer it?

With a response like that, yes, absolutely!

Answer: I'm not.
Evidence: forcing you to use my name in your ruleset was not serious.

[Hoopla]

Going back to answer some questions:

On strategy. I don't think we shouldn't vote on who to vengekill today if we lynch a townie. We should trust the townie to make a correct shot, because this way it forces scum to use a daykill today or gamble on getting their 2-shot Goon killed without making a kill. The earlier scum use their potential shots, the better for town.

Hoho. Really now? Trust has to be earned and, frankly, if Mafia decides to off dumb-town in the hopes that dumb-town will vengekill town then I think they're doing it right. I'm not saying any

pony

one in this game is dumb-town. I believe that Town is only as strong as its weakest link.

I think if a townie is lynched today, we ought to trust them with their shot - there are no idiots in this town. The majority of players who voted to lynch the townie were wrong, so why should they be trusted? Unless the townie is self-voting, they haven't been wrong yet, so they seem perfectly entitled to take the shot.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, when you put it that way, it sounds good.
Except this part: "there are no idiots in this town". I remain guarded about this until... oh idk, maybe a few more pages down the line.

Which players are most likely to reveal themselves as idiots, do you think?

[Hoopla]

Scumteam is Derpy Hooves, Guy_Named_Riggs and Rainbowdash.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Derpy Hooves

*whistles*

[Hoopla]

The only thing that makes me think she could be town is I really think she is one of those players who think they are gods gift to mafia, and has declared the 3 scum. I'd be fine testing her theory out, but ill kill her in return with my vengeful kill.

Notice the veiled threat of return fire. It looks like Derpy is nervous that I'm onto her and is trying to scare me off track.

[Hoopla]

If you know I'm 100% wrong why are you happy to test my theory?

[Hoopla]

Rainbow, can you place a vote on someone please?

[Hoopla]

Why not? We're both town.

[Hoopla]

Rainbow, can you place a vote on someone please?

NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO
Just.
NO.
I hate this post with the intensity of a thousand suns.
Before I yell at you I will ask you one thing, Why did you ask him(her?) to vote? I want to see your explanation before I explain why I hate it so much.

Because voting is the ultimate expression of suspicion. I'm fine with players unvoting while they reassess their options, but not using your vote for pages is a waste and slows the game down (especially if multiple people do it). I'm looking forward to the theory lecture, though.

[Hoopla]

Well tbh, the L-2 was sort of misleading. Noodle was rvs, farside said her vote was serious, mine was serious, and Charlie hopped on based on others suspicion. That's why I'm voting Charlie.

SV can hate my reasoning, but there is no way he can think Charlie's was actually valid. It's one reason why I'm skeptical of SV right now cause he votes me for my push on hoopla, but leaves Charlie to do so, Charlie's vote was hands down the scummiest vote on hoopla.

So, do you think I'm town?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, other than the obvious OMGUS undertones of it all, why else are you voting me, inquiring derpy ponies want to know.

p.edit - you are null leaning scum

Why are you so anxious about what I think of you?

I don't know where my suspicion stems from exactly, but it hurts my stomach. You have a really strange way of interacting with people. Sometimes it seems pushy and like you're trying to spin something, and other times I get the impression you're speaking from a perspective of knowledge - as in, your knowledge of who is town and scum is tainting your posts in subconscious manner - occasionally seeping in...

[Hoopla]

Are you? What did you say your alt was again?

[Hoopla]

Oh right. So, who are you?

[Hoopla]

Just tell us. Don't be afraid. I won't judge you.

[Hoopla]

So, you think it's acceptable to not have suspects at this stage of the game?

[Hoopla]

I want to know what sort of player Derpy Hooves is.

[Hoopla]

Is that the reason why you won't say? Do you have undesirable meta you're trying to escape?

[Hoopla]

What matters would you like to talk about instead, Maruchan?

[Hoopla]

Cuz I sleep for 12 hour periods, and I have seen a lot happen in twelve hours.

~Noodle

Lucky you're in a hydra.

[Hoopla]

I wasn't trying to pass it off as scumhunting, farside. It was for my own interest.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Guy_Named_Riggs

[Hoopla]

I think my reason is pretty evident. It's not like I switched my vote onto a player who hasn't been talked about recently.

[Hoopla]

I agree with farside's reasoning on GNR.

[Hoopla]

I guess you do.

[Hoopla]

Ooh, a lurker hunt. I like your style. Lets burn them at the stake.

Hey rainbow, how are you feeling about this GNR wagon at the moment?

[Hoopla]

There is a difference between posting and saying nothing, and just not posting. The latter is obviously detrimental to town success, but the former is scummier.

Do you want to start a lurker-wagon with me? Who should we pick?

[Hoopla]

But thinking about it, Collyer and whispersilk (two of the lurkers) look pretty town, wouldn't you agree? I actually don't think that takes too much away from the GNR wagon.

If anything, the GNR wagon looks mostly town, and I'm decently confident the last two votes are town (I'm town, and I'm trusting farside at the moment) - there was a large gap in between the third and fourth vote, so the quick jump to L-1 would have been unpredictable if scum was distancing on buddy-Riggs. But I think that quick jump is innocent, so how can judge the whole wagon based on lurkers? I don't think that situation affected the base of the wagon (given Collyer is on it), so why would it affect it now? The only way it's a relevant point is if you believe farside and/or myself are scum.

Does this make sense? I think you're needlessly second-guessing yourself here, or rather, the reason that makes you wary about the wagon is bogus.


EDIT: This is in response to rainbow.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla you're being awfully chummy with rainbow. -squinty eye stare-

I'm curious if something is going on. The whole "Do you want to start a lurker wagon with me? Who should we pick?" just sounded off to me for some reason.

~Noodle

Are you upset that I'm not being chummy with you yet?

[Hoopla]

Meh, if Guy_Named_Riggs is scum, I'll be pretty annoyed at being talked out of it, but I think NoodleGoomba is scum which is enough for me to bail as well.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: NoodleGoomba

[Hoopla]

Reasons, hoopla?

It's a gut-based read on the Noodle half of the hydra, mostly because it reminds me of how I used to play scum when I was new. I think when you're scum, you value your survival a lot more and play in a more calculating, limited way - I know as town when I was new, I was attracted to expansive, creative plays (even if they were frought with danger) and didn't think about consequences as much, but when I played scum, I'd for some reason limit this and overcompensate by ensuring I had a thought process that added up as a safety mechanism, when in reality as town, you're not really that consistent, because reads and thoughts ebb and flow. I think it's natural to become more logical as scum, because it's easy to weave pieces of logic together to concoct believable beliefs, than to just out and out lie.

And that's the impression I get from Maruchan. Some of his posts have a very mechanical, yet limited depth to them. It looks like he is just ticking boxes with his posts - "I should comment on this because this happened", "I should explain this piece of theory", "I should probably ask a couple of questions".

I suppose you're going to want examples of this behaviour, so I'll try and do that for you as well.

The first post that irks me is Noodles' large post on page 1 in the RVS. It's unnecessarily verbose given how little content is in the post. This is the beginnings of Noodles' construction of "content".

This post is my favourite example of what I'm talking about. There is a lot of filler, shallow questions and general theory musing interspersed between the "good stuff". It's difficult to explain why this post rubs me the wrong way, but I really don't think there is much beyond the cosmetic with any of his musings. His outburst at me for when I requested rainbow to make a vote seemed hyperbolic and his subsequent explanation for why he hated it didn't make it seem like his original outburst was appropriate - in the sense, if he hated my request so much, presumably he'd have a strong reason matching that level of vitriol.

It's hard to explain it any more than this, because I feel like I'm already simplifying my thoughts into words that don't fully contain the whole meaning, but read Noodles' posts. This is a request to everybody, not just you. Don't you think there is an air of phoniness about his posts? This isn't the Maruchan I know - he is too calculated, especially for who he is.

[Hoopla]

vote: SV

I dont like how you are playing. You just seem to be skating by not providing anything useful.

Plus you said u would post substance and have failed to deliver on that.

What do you think about SV's post on me then?

Okay, I was ALL SET to vote hoopla, but she has to go and actually post REASONABLE CONTENT now. Hmpff.

[Hoopla]

The tides are turning and a challenge is being mounted. Look who is voting SV: farside, Derpy and GNR.

The fact we're getting a competition wagon against Noodle in the form of SV makes me feel a lot better about my vote. I reckon there is at least one scum voting for SV.

[Hoopla]

*stamps hooves*

[Hoopla]

Clearly I missed some post from hoopla that was awesome. What post number is it?

Post 24 in my iso.

[Hoopla]

@Noodle: I don't care if you confer with your other head. Give reads on who you think is scum and why.

Expect super long-ass post of AMAZINGNESS tomorrow around 4:00 CDT.

We want quality, not quantity.

[Hoopla]

Give us the flip Whiskers.

[Hoopla]

If you can hit the 2-Shot Goon, that would be amazing. I don't think it's NoodleGoomba. I feel like if he were, the scum would have burned a shot by now, just in case he gets lynched/vengekilled.

The 2-Shot Goon is likely someone who hasn't been wagoned so far, as scum would be reluctant to bus them. My money is someone like Charlie. Keeping a low profile - little attention as far as votes/acknowledgement and mildly scummy.

[Hoopla]

The fact scum didn't use a shot on D1 implies they're confident their killer will survive until D3. I don't like this.

[Hoopla]

The frustrating thing is, if SV is town, we need NG's alignment as soon as possible to make sense of the Day 1 wagons. If he's scum, then the late push on SV surely must be dripping with scum. It was genuinely surprised the SV wagon got over the top - it can't be all town driven surely.

It seems like an unusual build up for both wagons to be town. If they are, then I want to look at those who have made safe votes, parked longterm on someone. In the event both wagons are town, scum have little incentive to challenge the status quo and make brazen, game-changing votes that put themselves into the limelight. They're likelier to place votes that are difficult to challenge or at the beginning of the wagons. Players like farside and whispersilk would be who I'd look at. I think NG being scum seems likelier than both the wagons being town, though.

[Hoopla]

On second thought, I wouldn't be completely opposed to a farside shot. It should definitely be someone on SV's wagon, which is farside, GNR, Charlie, NG, Collyer, Derpy.

GNR and NG probably aren't the 2-shot Goon, although both are scummy.
Collyer is probably town.
Derpy I'm starting to believe is town, or even if she isn't, I feel she'll become readable deeper in the game, so she probably isn't a great shot. I don't she's the 2-shot Goon either.
Charlie is mildly scummy and a possibility for the 2-shot Goon.
farside has been mostly null to see, but PoE is starting to make her look a bit scummy. Is also a possibility of being the 2-shot Goon.

If my opinion carries any weight in your view, SV, I vote for Charlie/farside vengekillings.


PEDIT: That last post by farside looks kinda town. Bluh.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, shoot Charlie instead.

[Hoopla]

farside, why not Charlie?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, you just made a suggestion for SV's hypothetical vengekill target. Yet, recall early game that you were the one who said "we should trust Town to make their own decisions". Way to go, Hoopla. Way to go... Woohoo.

I trust SV to make the final decision, but it doesn't mean I can't put out my choice to influence his decision. Feel free to share your choice.

[Hoopla]

Rainbow, is NG's post 413 a town slip?

[Hoopla]

No way, Hoopla. No way.

NG didn't read the Role PM in the first post/s!
My gosh. ProbTown for inattention to detail? Shocking...
Anyway, that's not how the Daykills work. Read the rules as well while you're there. I don't want 2 Derpies.

P-edit: Hoopla gets a free hug. Redeem anytime.

It probably means he doesn't have that role PM if he hasn't read it. I'd also imagine scum would have been talking in the QT about who to kill/if they should use a shot on Day 1. It probably would have come up that they can't use both shots in one day.

Do you think this is a slip Noodle could have faked? It seems genuine to me.

[Hoopla]

Did the town believe it was a town slip?

[Hoopla]

Not cool cats, cats.
Hoopla, need your read on Rainbowdash.
Also on myslef.

It's technically lylo today. I don't like that at all. We can buy ourselves out of it with a correct scum lynch today which is going to be very difficult, because scum will be even more disinclined to bus, given a mislynch can win it today, but a scum lynch takes it to an extra set. Scum also have a kill up their sleeve to take out an obv-town and improve the ratio if scum to town, so we're definitely up against it.

My read on Rainbowdash based purely on behavioural tells and the way she plays is that she is slightly town, but she is a very canny pony, so there is still an air of paranoia hovering over her. However, this is lylo, and risks need to be taken. Going by raw probability, she has a 33% chance of being (slightly higher knowing I'm town), although factoring in subjective reads of her and others in the game, it feels closer to 25%.

This is a dramatic move, but I'm going to "temporarily clear" Rainbowdash - I don't want to lynch her today. In the event she is scum, I'm going to find it very difficult to get her lynched (even if I thought she was the scummiest), and I think it will be also very difficult to outwit her and catch and lynch one of her buddies. As such, I'm ignoring this possibility. It's a gamble to ignore that, but given it's a scenario I'm unlikely to ultimately act on, there is no point dwelling on that today. I want to play strictly in the universe where Rainbow is town. In this world, I have a lot more control over the fate of the town, and feel like we have a decent chance of lynching scum.

We (probably) lose in the situation where we gamble and are wrong, but even if we didn't "clear" her, the possibility where Rainbow is scum is still probably a lose anyway. There is little lost by making this "gamble". There is, however, a gain in the realm where Rainbow is town. If we "clear" her, we're working with more confirmed information and a less cluttered gamestate as there are less possibilities to analyse. If we don't clear her, it makes wagon analysis/vote analysis slightly harder and there are more possibilities, meaning a less diligent approach is given to each one. We need to focus our attention on possibilities that the town can control and can influence.

I expect this approach to be slightly controversial given it's an unorthodox play, but it's a device that I think improves our chances of winning overall. If there is anyone who genuinely thinks Rainbowdash is scummy, speak up now.

[Hoopla]

Alright, looking at yesterday's wagon with the aforementioned adjustment, this is what we get:

Shattered Viewpoint

(L-0):

farside22

, Guy_Named_Riggs, Charlie, NoodleGoomba, Collyer, Derpy Hooves.
NoodleGoomba (L-3):

Hoopla

,

Rainbowdash

, fatlikepig.
Guy_Named_Riggs (L-5):

Shattered Viewpoint

.

farside22

(L-5): whispersilk.

This is a crucial snapshot of the game, which I'll be using as a base to build my thoughts off. A key observation is the rival wagon of SV; NoodleGoomba. Playing only in the realm where Rainbow is town, fatlikepig's vote sticks out like a sore thumb, especially if NoodleGoomba actually ends up being town. It's important to note that NG's wagon peaked at L-2 and that Derpy was briefly on that wagon before switching to hammer SV.

There are two sub-avenues we have to travel down to interpret this formation of votes. One is where NoodleGoomba is town, the other where he is scum. I'll start with the possibility that Noodle is town.

NG is Town:

This makes both leading wagons town, which makes the fierce competition between NG and SV seem unusual. From scum's perspective, there is no functional difference between SV and NG getting lynched - both are just fine, which suggests that scum's influence on the back half of each wagon is minimal. They have no incentive to jump into the limelight and make votes that will be heavily scrutinised the next day and improve their chances of being vengekilled.

But then how do you explain the speed of both wagons? This is getting more speculative, but I suspect it was a perfect storm of several variables all coming together at once. My case on NG was agreeable and collected a couple of votes of support - even if fatlikepig or Derpy are scum riding my coattails, it still explains the progression on the NG side of things. SV's wagon already had a stable base of votes and suspicion before NG's wagon took off, and the "speed" we're perceiving of SV's wagon really only came into effect when the second half of the wagon accelerated, and I think most of those votes are explainable (even though poor): NG's vote was a form of self defense (anyone else is better than me, which is true as scum or town), Collyer was a lurker who recently awoke from his slumber and Derpy is a Parama-esque hyperactive player who probably loves hammering. That build-up could quite easily be explained away as all town - towns have been known to induce speedwagons without scum's help (or at least patches on a wagon), and in the instance where scum have no qualms about who is lynched, the environment for a quick spate of town votes was suitable.

It's difficult to pigeonhole everyone's motivation for voting SV, and I think it'd be unwise to completely eliminate the possibility of a scum being in those "limelight" votes. I think a more compelling piece of evidence we see is the NG wagon, where as I mentioned earlier, fatlikepig's vote

really

sticks out - even more so when NG is also greened. I know from a neutral perspective, you also need to trust I am town, but from my perspective, NoodleGoomba being town almost certainly makes fatlikepig scum. I also quantify it from the perspective that it's a really tempting easy vote to ride, when a solid case is presented on someone - I half expect a scum to have followed me as a form a buddying and also for a relatively easy vote.

NG is scum

It's a very different picture if NG is scum. It gives reason and incentive to the SV votes and would be a rather elegant explanation as to why the SV sped up so rapidly in comparison to the NG wagon, but it's almost too succinct as an answer - too simple. NG is fourth on the SV wagon, and again, it's a move that makes sense as town or scum. It was a vote that was always going to happen, really, which slightly exaggerates the true speed of the wagon and I'm slightly thrown of by Collyer who is still a slight town read and Derpy who's brazen hammer on town looks really good.

It doesn't make sense to explain away the back-end of the wagon as scummy even though it's tempting and possibly right in other scenarios similar to this. Looking at how and why the votes happened, it appears likely that the back-end of the SV wagon was largely town driven (regardless of NG's alignment), which makes it seem like NG being town is a likelier option to explain the formation of these wagons.

I'm also still slightly convinced that Noodle's slip a couple of pages back was genuine, which seems to fit with the hypothesis I've pieced together. I don't know who the entire scumteam is, but I think if Noodle is town, it looks very likely fatlikepig is scum. My guess is that whispersilk and Charlie would be the partners, but I'm not as focused on that yet (so, there is your read on you Charlie).

This game needs a paradigm shift. I feel really uneasy with letting this play out normally. It feels much too like scum aren't fazed with how things are playing out right now, which implies scum are comfortable. I've never really got the collective town read on fatlikepig that everyone seems to have - if anything, the way he is collectively being read seems disproportionate to his true scumminess. He's never really been challenged or a been a key player in any big wagons or big arguments. And in a game where several people look town, PoE really works well on players like this. I think fatlikepig is the right move today.

Thoughts?

[Hoopla]

Also, can we consider unvoting please given it's lylo?

[Hoopla]

Fars? Dead? What in the world?

VOTE: GNR

This is a really fake-looking reaction, btw.

[Hoopla]

fatlikepig: You'd support a Charlie lynch then?

[Hoopla]

Charlie, have you played/seen any games with Rainbow where she was town?

[Hoopla]

I don't trust your meta evaluation of Rainbow if you've only read games she's been in. I've seen bits and pieces of her in games, but haven't played with her. Most of my knowledge of her comes from what I know about her main account who I've talked to and played with a couple of times.

[Hoopla]

with 9 alive and 3 mafia, how is it lylo?

Scumkill today + a mislynch takes it to 3:4. Guess what happens first thing tomorrow morning? It's lylo. Stop messing around.

[Hoopla]

Rainbow, I think whispersilk is my second choice for lynch after fatlikepig.

[Hoopla]

Good thing I've caught scum with my vote. I'm not horsing around.

Collyer is scum, guranteed.

Stop it. This is no time for everyone to just vote who they want.

[Hoopla]

But if one more townie decides to be Derpy like you, then they can blitz. What do you think about my case on fatlikepig? Would you vote for whispersilk?

[Hoopla]

What's your explanation for voting Collyer?

[Hoopla]

Would you lynch whispersilk, Derpy?

[Hoopla]

Seems weird that a large part of your "case" for Collyer is dependent on lurking and lack of scumhunting (like they're two different things), yet you're letting whispersilk off the hook. What's the difference between their play that makes Collyer your number 1 lynch candidate and whispersilk not one at all?

PEDIT: So, you believe NoodleGoomba is scum? Collyer's vote isn't opportunistic if NoodleGoomba is town as well.

[Hoopla]

I do think rainbow isn't playing like she normally plays, but she also isn't playing how she played in that 1234 game which I just read.

Rainbow is null.

What were the main differences you noted between Rainbow's town and scum play and this game that led you to this conclusion?

[Hoopla]

As opposed to you hammering out of nowhere?

[Hoopla]

And I'm here monitoring. If I feel a blitz is coming. I'll be here to unvote.

P.edit, I hammered out of nowhere? REALLY?

Do you want me to prove you wrong?

It was a lame excuse for a hammer and could easily be construed as opportunistic. This actually raises an interesting point though - did you not believe Collyer's vote was opportunistic yesterday when you saw it happen? Presumably if you did, then you shouldn't have hammered SV.

[Hoopla]

Funny how you said the hammer made me town, but now I suspect you and the hammer makes me scum.

I don't suspect you..? Where did I say I did? In my large analysis post, you certainly weren't in my top three.

If you're referring to my post just then where I said your hammer could be construed as oppostinistic, I was using that as an example to disprove that Collyer's vote was opportunistic, not that yours was as well. Come on, Derpy...

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, the fact that you aren't asking me to explain my scum read on you at all in spite of how many times I have mentioned it are just making me feel you are more scumzors.

JSYK.

~Noodle

If this is how you're choosing to scumhunt in lylo, you're doing it wrong. Feel free to give me your reasons.

[Hoopla]

Don't come on me scum. You are caught, so is collyer. You are too experienced to be pushing a wagon on whisper.

I'm primarily pushing a wagon on fatlikepig, which you didn't have much to say about. The opposition and sheer lack of attention paid to whispersilk looks pretty convincing to me. It seems far too convenient that people are happy to push Collyer but don't even consider whispersilk.

[Hoopla]

No I already suspected you of being scum, the fact that you're ignoring the suspicion just concretes the read.

You don't have reasons, so why would I care? You're not going to convince the town based on your gut.

[Hoopla]

Who are these "people"? I'm the only one voting him.



Strike 3, you're out

P.edit - ignoring somepony suspicious of you is a scumtell, very convincing one at that.

You and NG so far, and NOBODY other than me has considered whispersilk at all.

Again, why isn't whispersilk a suspect for you?

[Hoopla]

I think I like "no bueno" better. Hi Beck.

[Hoopla]

So Hoopla, from your point of view, your vote should be on one of the remaining 3 people.

No, if NG is town like I suspect, then it largely eliminates the necessity for there to be scum on SV's wagon. There could be a scum there, and it could be Charlie or Collyer, but I'm not going to gamble on that because it's not an appropriate 50/50. I'm not slam dunk sold on GNR and Derpy town, even though they seem likely.

If Noodle is town, what incentive is there for scum to hurriedly bundle on the end of SV's wagon - all it does it stop Noodle getting lynched. Why would scum care about that?

If both wagons were town, scum don't need to be on the main wagon, because there's no incentive to be there and there is no risk by not joining as the backup wagon is also town. Players like fatlikepig and whispersilk fit the bill of staying out of the limelight and making relatively safe, unchallengable votes.

Do you believe NoodleGoomba is town?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, if my vote "stood out that much", then why did you only just mention it? What about it stood out? The fact that it was on a "safe" wagon doesn't mean anything, town are just as likely as scum to join those.

It only stands out now that we know a lot more about the makeup of those Day 1 wagons.

[Hoopla]

Why do you think noodle is town?

The way the wagon shifted off him to SV, implies he is more likely to be scum than town.

I already explained why the speed of SV's wagon looked exaggerated. The "shift" came from the last three votes - the first being NG, which was purely out of survival (something scum and town would do - he isn't going to vote himself), the second is Collyer, and the third is you. I take it you don't think you're scum, so the shift starts to look a little innocuous now. I don't really see it as a shift that happened BECAUSE Noodle is scum, and the scum needed to push SV instead, which is what you're implying.

I think Noodle independent of wagon analysis - his town slip being the key clearing point. For Collyer to be opportunistic scum, you need to prove there was something to be opportunistic about, ie; Noodle is scum and he's taking the opportunity to stop his lynch via an SV vote. However, if Noodle is town, then Collyer ceases to be opportunistic. If Noodle is scum, you have might have a case, but then why not just lynch Noodle in this situation?

What's Collyer's motivation for voting SV if both the wagons yesterday were town?

[Hoopla]

What's is collyer's motivation for putting SV at L1 without even questioning him first?

Really?

If he is town, why would he not even question SV first?

Why don't you ask him?

In fact, holding you to the standard you're applying to him, why aren't you questioning Collyer today?

[Hoopla]

This is a special announcement:

I have an idea.

This might seem like an adventurous idea, but I think we have an outside chance of buying another mislynch if we're lucky.

If we can speedlynch a player before the 2-shot Goon can send in a day-kill, we don't lose with a mislynch today. A mislynch would take us to 3:5 tomorrow, and given scum can only shoot once per day, the worst case scenario is we end up in 3:4 tomorrow after they use a kill then.

I've chosen to announce this now, because one of the players who I think has a good shot at being the 2-shot Goon should be asleep for the next ~6 hours: fatlikepig. I believe fatlikepig is Australian, which seems to match with his post times in this game. He hasn't had a post in this game from 2 hours ago through to the next 6 hours, which means, if we want to, we have enough time to speedlynch him before he can wake up and send a kill.

Two things could happen:

We successfully speedlynch fatlikepig without scum making a kill. Huzzah! We just got that lynch for free, and even if he is town, and scum is someone else who wasn't around, it doesn't cost us much.

Or scum hurriedly make a kill before our speedlynch goes through, which confirms fatlikepig as not the 2-shot Goon (and possibly others if we have reason to believe they weren't online when the kill went through). This also has the benefit of rushing scum's kill, so they can't think about it too much.

The vote count resets if a scumkill goes through, so there actually isn't risk in attempting a speedlynch. What does everyone think of this idea? There is nothing lost if fatlikepig isn't the 2-shot Goon because scum still get to make a kill today, but there is everything to be gained if he is. I think it's worth a shot - we have nothing to lose.

[Hoopla]

This could be a free lynch if we get away with it though - so nothing is lost. We don't lose with the lynch PLUS it gives us more information to make use of with regards to wagon analysis. This isn't to mention the possibility he is scum. Are you really that sure he is town?

[Hoopla]

IT'S NOT A GAMBLE. IT'S A FREE LYNCH IF WE CAN EXECUTE IT!

My games are chronologically ordered on my wiki. Go nuts.

[Hoopla]

Why do you think you can strongarm me out of my own plan? fatlikepig is a good vote and has a better chance of being the 2-shot Goon as well.

If there is zero chance of a fatlikepig lynch, I will step down and speed wagon pretty much anyone, because nobody is 100% clear and someone is better than noone, but

you

don't get to call the shots (especially given you've already been wrong once this game). We need more people in here asap to make a quick decision. If they don't want to lynch fatlikepig, so be it, we'll do someone else, but if they do, you had better be on board.

[Hoopla]

I just made an excellent case why collyer is scum.

Let's hear your condenses case why he fat is scum.

I'm not going to sift through fatlikepig's ISO and cherry-pick a handful of quotes and interpret them for you out of context. That is a newbie method of scumhunting - you can spin anyone's ISO as scummy if you really wanted to.

My "case" is largely PoE. I'd prefer you to consume the entire explanation and series of deductions I make, because it helps shape the game in a way necessary to understanding why fatlikepig is scum. But here is your neat, watered down presentation:

- NoodleGoomba is town for his town slip late yesterday.
- This means both wagons were town.
- Scum aren't going to make game-changing, attention-drawing votes, such as late switches, hammers on townies etc.
- Scum didn't use their kill yesterday, which implies their team or at least their shooter is comfortable or under the radar. This zeros in on players like fatlikepig, whispersilk and possibly Rainbow.
- If the NoodleGoomba wagon is town like I suspect, then I think there is one scum on it. It isn't me, and fatlikepig is likelier than Rainbow.
- This is quantified by a slight townread on Rainbow. She has derailed wagons once they've collected steam, which is an aggressive play - something scum don't do, as the votes falling off it can easily redirect to scum. She has posted unique thoughts and has pressured people for content to keep the game moving. Again, she is canny, but she is a lot more townie than fatlikepig.
- PoE makes fatlikepig the best option once I've cleared the whole Noodle wagon.

[Hoopla]

Here is the piece of logic to show why fatlikepig is the sensible choice to speedlynch:

Whoever we speedlynch today, we are banking on beating the 2-shot Goon to the punch. Every other player has been online during this window on other days, which makes their presence much more possible than fatlikepig, who shouldn't be here for about 3 hours (at least). Now, since we're trying to beat scum to the kill, it makes no sense to try and lynch someone who could be around, as they can quite easily stay silent in the shadows and perform the kill if they're the killer. If we want to have a chance of beating the killer, we need to gamble on it being someone who likely isn't going to be here: fatlikepig. And if we're gambling on him being the killer, it makes no sense to lynch anyone else. We'll either A) get fatlikepig-2-Shot Goon lynched or B) the real killer will make a kill before we perform a lynch.

I'll help get us going;

VOTE: fatlikepig

[Hoopla]

Vote plz.

[Hoopla]

HOLD THE FUCKING PHONE, HOOPLA

Yeah, speedlynching me? Dumb idea. I'd go so far as to call it scummy

Not scummy, just exploiting the setup for it's fullest potential. We get this lynch for free, so it's very little risk for a very large gain.

You're here now, so we can't speedlynch you. We can still succeed if the 2-shot Goon is whispersilk or Collyer. As much as I'd prefer whisper over Collyer to be lynched, I need to be realistic here, given the players I need to help with this want Collyer lynched. Somebody over nobody is preferable, and even if Collyer is town, it gives us good information for the next lynch.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Collyer

There you Beck. Now jump on.

[Hoopla]

I've given you exactly what you want. Now vote.

[Hoopla]

Oh my god, what part of "this is a free lynch" don't you understand? If we power through a lynch before the day-kill, it doesn't cost us anything.

Why is everyone avoiding it?

[Hoopla]

If we push this wagon out to L-2 or L-1 and there still isn't a kill, I think this pretty much confirms whispersilk or Collyer have to be the killer. Now quit stalling.

[Hoopla]

You don't get to criticise Rainbow's choice when you haven't even made one yourself.

This is a two-horse race between Collyer and whispersilk. Pick one.

[Hoopla]

Why aren't you voting? Why don't you think a free lynch is a good idea?

[Hoopla]

Why
are
you
against
a
quicklynch?

There is nothing to lose, so even if I am scum, I'm not taking away a mislynch. I'm giving you a free mislynch to try and hit scum with. Stop being daft and actually think about it.

[Hoopla]

Why do you think speedlynching is bad? Do you understand the logic behind getting a free lynch? I can explain it again if you want...

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: whispersilk

Only option left.

[Hoopla]

WHY HASN'T SCUM SHOT YET, HUH, HUH?

[Hoopla]

Then why would I give the town a free mislynch? If I'm the scum 2-shot, all I need to win is a mislynch today. I'm not going to draw the game out unnecessarily for no reason.

[Hoopla]

Then why would I give the town a free mislynch? If I'm the scum 2-shot, all I need to win is a mislynch today. I'm not going to draw the game out unnecessarily for no reason.

Why would you give town a free mislynch when you need a mislynch to win?

Are you kidding me right now?

Explain it to me.

[Hoopla]

Also, respond to Rainbow's 625.

[Hoopla]

He's not the 2-shot Goon.

Vote whispersilk.

[Hoopla]

2 more votes please. No stalling.

[Hoopla]

Charlie and NG. You guys can do this. This is a FREE lynch. Even if whisper is town, we're in the same situation tomorrow. Take a chance.

[Hoopla]

If we finish the quicklynch now before the 2-shot Goon sends in a kill, they've missed the window for a Day 2 kill. We then go to Day 3 in 3:5 or 2:6 with scum only having one day-kill for that day, meaning it's still lylo. We obviously don't quicklynch then.

[Hoopla]

fatlikepig should be online around about this time.

[Hoopla]

Collyer, I see you online.

Hammer whispersilk in your next post please. Quickly. It is the pro-town thing to do.

[Hoopla]

Omg, we did it.

[Hoopla]

If whispersilk or Guy_Named_Riggs is the killer, then no kill should have been made. There is the chance that scum could have let us have this mislynch, but I don't see why they'd do that - maybe to prevent the town from narrowing down who the killer is. But that doesn't seem worth giving the town an extra flip to work with.

[Hoopla]

You missed out, buddy. No town points for you.

[Hoopla]

I take it that's the fancy way of saying she was the 2-shot Goon.

Omg, so much juicy information to sift through from that last lynch.

[Hoopla]

[Hoopla]

Okay.

Well, I'm going to have a nap and do some analysis when I wake up.

[Hoopla]

Also, we've gone from "lylo" to having four mislynches available now.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: Correction, three mislynches. A fourth mislynch would lose the game.

Does that mean you only get two strikes in baseball since the third one gets you out? Okay, enough chit chat.

~~

The strange thing I find about yesterday is that we managed to lynch whispersilk (the best possible outcome), but had trouble getting a wagon moving on fatlikepig. Presumably whispersilk would have been the more difficult lynch. Using this as the yardstick of difficulty, where did the difficulty of the fatlikepig wagon come from?

The "difficulty" of a wagon comes from two sources: where scum are disinclined to bus a buddy, meaning you have less people available who will possibly support it. And when town players have town reads on someone and don't want to go there. Difficulty is a good method of determining if a wagon is going to flip scum or town, for example: a scummy town lurker will have everyone considering to vote for them, whereas a scummy scum lurker will have everyone considering to vote for them minus scum.

The fact that we could manage to lynch whispersilk implies a lack of scum presence resisting the surge. Naturally there was

some

resistance, but that happens to some degree on most wagons - when it doesn't, that usually implies scum are helping push. But why couldn't we lynch fatlikepig? I chalk it up to the second reason for difficulty: too many town players had town reads on him. The core group of players in control of this speedwagon (everyone wasn't here) didn't want fatlikepig lynched at all, but they were willing to defer to whispersilk. This implies the core players with the most influence yesterday were likely town.

This is a very broad view of where to look for scum based on yesterday's wagon, but I think it's important to define the structure of how and why the speedlynch happened, because it gives more context to the individual votes.

~ Looking back at the beginnings of the proposal for a speedwagon, I didn't realise how influential Rainbow actually was in directing the speedwagon onto whispersilk. I had just given up hope in securing a fatlikepig wagon and had placed a vote on Collyer to try and pick up Derpy's and NG's vote for Collyer, but Rainbow didn't jump on that - she voted for whispersilk instead. She could have quite easily conceded the whispersilk option without suspicion and pushed Collyer, but it was her vote that gave potential to a whispersilk wagon. For us to consider Rainbow scum, we need to entertain the idea that she was open to bussing to possibly give the town four mislynches. There was zero incentive for her to do so.

NoodleGoomba posted several times during the build up of the quicklynch, and didn't seek to condemn it or endorse it. This is the definition of active lurking and stalling if there ever was one. The difference between his resistance to the wagon and Charlie's/Derpy's is that he made no effort to discourage it - he was keeping his options open. He didn't want to be caught defending whisper and didn't want to bus. By stalling, he was keeping both options open, quite possibly praying that whispersilk would come online.

Derpy's opposition to the speedwagon at first seems natural, although very derpy. Like Rainbow, I feel as though she could have easily taken advantage of the situation to push Collyer more when whisper looked a real risk of being lynched. Her vote was third on the wagon and was really the vote that tilted this into being a real possibility - it took it from a Hoopla/Rainbow crusade into a "oh shit, we're actually doing this" which subsequently forced other players to commit to the wagon. I don't think Derpy is a consideration for today's lynch.

At the start of Day 2 I was suspicious of Charlie, but that slowly subsided throughout the day, and even though Charlie was opposed to lynching whispersilk for a while, a lot of his reactions feel genuine. His resistance is somewhat worrying though, as his vote only came when it was starting to look inevitable whisper was going to be lynched. I don't think he gets town points for his contribution to the wagon as he was more a hindrance than a help overall. He really started pushing Collyer hard when the whisper wagon was forming though, so he's definitely a suspect. I have higher priorities for today, though.

fatlikepig and Collyer get no town credit for their votes, as fatlikepig's vote came as I was calling for Collyer to hammer. As scum, if your buddy is going to be hammered, you might as well drop it to get something out of it. An important thing to note here, is after Charlie places whisper to L-1, I call for Collyer to hammer and fatlikepig comes in just TWO minutes later and does so. To me, this implies he was quite possibly monitoring the situation, hoping whisper would come online. Hoping he could stall it out, but then suddenly realising that possibility is gone and he is going to get off the whisper wagon when Collyer hammers, so he sneaks in to try and get some town credit. As for Collyer, his vote was redundant, but I'm less suspicious of him, given he was an alternate candidate that was pushed at the start of today and at times in competition to whisper.

~~

Right now, I believe that scum had little to do with yesterday's lynch and I don't think Rainbow or Derpy are scum. My analysis at the start of Day 2 remains intact and important to me, given I had a scum pairing of fatlikepig/whisper, which I still see. In that analysis, I was relying on NoodleGoomba being town as well as Rainbow to strongly imply fatlikepig was scum. I can no longer endorse Noodle being town, and I think his alignment is most important to find out today. To present it in a neat little summary:

- His non-stances and active lurking throughout the speedlynch looks really bad.
- Although he has his townslip, he has himself admitted that he has feigned ignorance about things as scum to gain town credit. It's the only thing he has going for him really.
- We need his alignment to make more sense of the D1 wagons. The motivations for the votes at the end of the day completely change based on his alignment. Like Rainbow said, I think an information lynch isn't a bad idea. Noodle has the benefit of being an information lynch as well as a decent chance of being scum.
- If he flips town, it's quite likely fatlikepig is scum as per this:

Shattered Viewpoint

(L-0):

farside22

, Guy_Named_Riggs, Charlie, NoodleGoomba, Collyer, Derpy Hooves.
NoodleGoomba (L-3):

Hoopla

,

Rainbowdash

, fatlikepig.
Guy_Named_Riggs (L-5):

Shattered Viewpoint

.

farside22

(L-5):

whispersilk

.

[Hoopla]

My tiers:

1 - NG, fatlikepig
2 - Charlie
3 - Collyer, GNR
4 - Derpy
5 - Hoopla, Rainbow

~ I have GNR higher given he missed all of yesterday's lynch, and I suspect scum played a very small role in the proceedings. He makes sense from that aspect, although him being wagoned D1 makes me pause. I'm going to have to revisit that wagon, because I recall it being explainable and not necessarily scum taking advantage of him.

[Hoopla]

Anyway.

VOTE: NoodleGoomba

For information and lurking through the speedlynch.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

~Noodle

(PS: This is in regards to the strategy of "QUICKLYNCH ZOMGNESS")

This also looks like he's pissed that his buddy was lynched.

Another point: does Maruchan really seem like the sort of player to condemn a quicklynch? Given as town just last month he day-vigged Fate in his second post. I think the reason Maruchan didn't want a speedwagon is obvious.

[Hoopla]

How about you actually tell us who your suspects are then?

[Hoopla]

Also, speedwagons are the ultimate troll.

[Hoopla]

No, you're first. Sorry. I'll consider Collyer if you flip town.

[Hoopla]

I think the Collyer lynch is a distraction when the main players who are pushing it are the one's who are likeliest to be scum. Myself and Rainbow haven't elected to go there today, and I think it's obvious we're both pretty town. So, why are we even considering Collyer now? I don't think he gives us any more real information.

Has someone got a deduction they can make in the event of Collyer flipping a certain way? Because I have a couple based on NG's alignment.

[Hoopla]

fatlikepig is also my alternate choice if people don't like the Noodle lynch. The reason I want to lynch Noodle first is because it says something about fatlikepig's alignment, I think.

[Hoopla]

You haven't really been a beacon of reason this game, so don't complain about the lack of weight your opinions take.

[Hoopla]

I'm getting to the point where I think we just need to lynch. Can we please just hammer NG and get on with the next day? I'll happily entertain fatlikepig/Charlier/Collyer wagons then.

[Hoopla]

Is this the post I missed, Noodle? Sorry, the orange hurts my eyes.

@Hoopla, I want to see one DAMN good post from you tomorrow detailing all this "Truckload of information" my death gives you. If you don't deliver, I hope to GOD the town gets off their "I love Hoopla for suggesting quicklynch that lead to scum even though we didn't quicklynch her prime suspect" and is willing to vote you.


Speaking of Hoopla, where the fuck have you been today? I don't have a problem with V/LAs, but I haven't seen you tell us anywhere why you're so inactive ,but you are MUCH more inactive now than you were day one and two.

I'm not on V/LA as such, the game is just boring - we should be lynching not fluffing about. I'll bring my A-game when I need to, but right now, I just want a lynch on you, or on fatlikepig if the town can't get their act together and lynch you.

The town knows plenty of my thoughts already and I'll post updated thoughts when new evidence is introduced to the game.

[Hoopla]

Coincidentally, it's also the exact explanation a bored townie who is bored would say.

Do you actually think I'm scum?

[Hoopla]

I gave us the opportunity at a FREE lynch, and although fatlikepig was my first choice, whispersilk was my second when I could have quite easily pushed Collyer given the support he had from Charlier, Derpy and you at times.

[Hoopla]

You're seriously the most dysfunctional hydra ever.

Rainbow: I'm going for a walk. I'll think about you have to say while I'm gone.

[Hoopla]

me and FLP are both at L-1 btw guys

Yeah, kinda.

[Hoopla]

Okay, enough chit-chat.

Sorry flp.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: fatlikepig

[Hoopla]

He had it coming sooner or later. I chose sooner.

[Hoopla]

Sorry to fatlikepig. I was wrong on you, but you have played your part for the town. Hopefully we can use your alignment to good use and catch the next scum.

I'll give the thread a reread soon.

[Hoopla]

Who's scum Charlie?

[Hoopla]

So, some thoughts about the fatlikepig flip:

fatlikepig flipping town makes Day 2's events more meaningful, given he was the original candidate for the speedlynch. The collective desire to save fatlikpig, but then move onto whispersilk represents a best and worst case scenario for scum - a town mislynch or your most important player being lynched. Again, I'm seriously disinclined to believe scum would willingly refuse a fatlikepig wagon and turn it onto whispersilk. For this reason, Rainbowdash is virtually confirmed town, and I don't want any paranoia about her at all, even if we mislynch today and/or tomorrow, so Derpy, if you have genuinely paranoia that one of myself/Rainbow is scum, direct it to me, not her.

The key point I'm interested in from Day 2 is how could we manage to lynch the scum killer without fatlikepig getting any attention? I'm pretty sure the answer is because town was largely in control of which direction the lynch went. If scum was amongst the active group of players during the lynch (Derpy/Rainbow/Charlie), then they wouldn't have any real reason to oppose the fatlikepig wagon - it makes more sense they were opposed to it because they thought he was town or genuinely didn't trust my idea. They did end up buckling and swapping to the whispersilk wagon, which makes me believe the worst-case scenario is that is

one

scum out of Charlie/Derpy, with a decent chance of both being town.

It then means there should be one or two scum out Noodle/Collyer/GNR. I'm tentatively believing Rainbow's reasoning for GNR being town, but I'm wary about clearing him completely given I expect scum to have had no impact on the Day 2 lynch, and GNR missed it completely.

Today's lynch really ought to be one of Noodle/Collyer, so I'm going to weigh up the pros and cons of what lynching either of them does.

[Hoopla]

Shattered Viewpoint

(L-0):

farside22

, Guy_Named_Riggs, Charlie, NoodleGoomba, Collyer, Derpy Hooves.
NoodleGoomba (L-3):

Hoopla

,

Rainbowdash

,

fatlikepig

.
Guy_Named_Riggs (L-5):

Shattered Viewpoint

.

farside22

(L-5):

whispersilk

.

This is the most convincing piece of evidence supporting a NoodleGoomba lynch. As I speculated on Day 2, in the event his whole wagon was town (which it almost certainly is), it really begs the question of why the SV wagon powered ahead of NoodleGoomba. The case on Noodle was convincing and relatively easy to piggyback and/or add to from a scum perspective, so why were no scum taking the opportunity to support this wagon?

We know the two remaining scum are in all likelihood on the SV wagon. Why?

It makes for very strange reading of this vote count if NoodleGoomba is town.If he is, Collyer is almost certainly scum, but having said that, NG being scum could also work with Collyer, as it explains the motivation behind Collyer's vote on SV, and both had quiet days on Day 2 when the speedlynch was happening.

[Hoopla]

@Charlie - Why are you voting Collyer today if you were sheeping Hoopla onto NG who obviously is not scum with Collyer yesterday?

Why can't Collyer/Noodle work together as a scumteam?

[Hoopla]

Do you really expect NG to be able to get

two

more mislynches out of that one? I mean, you essentially have three next to impossible to lynch ponies and NG. Even if we say its WIFOM, he buys a couple days, thats it, then his bluff gets called in most likely a F4 scenario.

He gains nothing unless they honestly think they can get two exceedingly difficult mislynches here. He gets ran down and lynched in the end, only delays the inevitable with that move. I think the better chance for NG-Collyer team would have been try something like: Lynch FLP, lynch GNR, lynch Charlie and then somehow get the final mislynch they need off of paranoia

I can see just one of them scum here very easily, but I really just dont see the logic behind that statement if they are both scum. It simply does not work for them in the long run. If they are the team they have lost either way, but I think going for broke is better than what they would have to be doing otherwise.

This is an overly elaborate longterm piece of reasoning on why it wouldn't work. Do you really think that Noodle would think that far ahead in as much detail over one comment?

[Hoopla]

I think Collyer is probably the right move today, because he has a decent chance of being scum and it tells us more about the Day 2 wagon interactions. I don't know what exactly quite just yet - but it's weird that he got a lot of suspicion during D2 from the likes of Charlie/Derpy but never really got a wagon on him. I think it might be because Collyer is scum and scum didn't want to bus him (or weren't around to bus), and then out of nowhere, we turned the wagon onto whispersilk. It's weird that when I compromised and said OK to a Collyer speedlynch, Charlie and Derpy suddenly didn't want to go through with it.

[Hoopla]

It makes much more sense if they know Noodle to be scum at the time since it is very unlikely that 3 outspoken townies are wrong in reads at the same time.

It happens more often than you think.

The reason it's incriminating for Noodle is the fact that no scum took the opportunity to ride on the free case being presented on Noodle. If he was town, presumably a scum could secure a pretty easy vote on this wagon.

[Hoopla]

If that was the case, scum would have voted to lynch him, but also outing themselves for the next day, as everyone would then know who scum were, correct?

PEdit: nice vote count

As opposed to scum being firmed embedded on the SV mislynch instead?

[Hoopla]

I tentatively agree with Charlie. We should be taking a potshot at someone off the wagon for today's lynch and quite possibly tomorrow if the choice today flips town. It's obvious the wagon was powered through by town, otherwise we would have seen the Collyer or fatlikepig wagons being strongly promoted if scum had a significant influence in Day 2's lynch.

Collyer today. If he's town, NG tomorrow. If he's scum, we reassess.

VOTE: Collyer

[Hoopla]

He's the best (only real) choice for scum ON the whispersilk wagon, but I'm not sure there necessarily was scum on the wagon. There is at least one, but possibly two scum OFF the wagon, so that is why I want to lynch there. It seems silly to burn through our first two lynches on two players who voted whispersilk as the obvious place for where scum is Noodle/Collyer/GNR.

He might be scum, though.

[Hoopla]

Noodle, I strongly suspect that the reason the whisper speedwagon went through was because it was entirely (or almost entirely) comprised of town players. This is quantified by the fact that we managed to get this wagon through, yet not any other. If scum had been involved in the lynch process on Day 2, the designated speedlynch probably wouldn't have been whispersilk.

This is why those not participating in the speedwagon are suspect, because those on the wagon are likely to be town. PoE implies that there is at least one scum off the wagon. It's not that active lurking is necessarily "scummy", it's because enough other players are prob-town for their play, which by default implies that those lurking through the day are scummy. My case isn't dependent on your individual views towards whichever player - it's dependent on the wagon that lynched whispersilk being town. That's the beauty of PoE.

[Hoopla]

To clarify, my main assertion is "X group of players are town", not "Noodle is scummy because Y and Z". My suspicion of you is a biproduct of my other reads.

Do you believe that scum bussed whispersilk yesterday? If so, why?

[Hoopla]

Why would I suggest a quicklynch in the first place though, when it's essentially a free lynch for the town? Whispersilk was always my second choice, and the town collectively had more suspicion on Collyer, and he still could have been wagoned, given he and whisper both collected one vote shortly after the fatlikepig wagon failed. I unvoted to push whispersilk instead of trying to push Collyer when Charlie and Derpy were suspicious of Collyer.

If I'm seriously your next choice for scum if Collyer flips scum, then whatever. What incentive do I have to bus whispersilk and then bus Collyer two days later?

[Hoopla]

I'm not stupid enough to bus recklessly and give a town four extra mislynches when all I need is ONE mislynch to win. That's just stupidly arrogant scumplay, and suboptimal really, because I know I always carry an air of suspicion about myself no matter how much scum I lynch. If I know I'm going to be suspected no matter what I do, then there is little point trying to bus for credit. The sheer damage a whispersilk lynch did to the scumteam would never ever be worth any amount of town points I could theoretically get.

You're suspicious of me, Derpy is mildly suspicious of me, and I've seen recently that Charlie and Rainbow have paranoid inklings in the back of their mind. I got town points definitely, but I can tell you right now, it's nowhere near enough to justify giving the town FOUR mislynches, of which they could catch my other buddy and secure ANOTHER mislynch.

Be reasonable, please.

[Hoopla]

Noodle, I was the second vote on the wagon and badgered Charlie, Derpy et al incessantly to be a part of it. It would NEVER have happened without me. Rainbow played debatably a larger part in the whispersilk lynch, but she is the only one I am second to.

Why do you think I would bus and not Charlie or Derpy or Rainbow?

[Hoopla]

Rainbow, you've completely ignored GNR the last two days. Is he basically confirmed town to you or something? Do you think he's likelier to be town than me?

[Hoopla]

Name-claiming has no place in an Open Setup. Out of principle, I'm not going to be part of that conversation.

I'm paranoid something screwy is going on here.

[Hoopla]

How about you stick to your principle of telling who is Mafia with Collyer?
VOTE: Collyer

I don't know.

Outdated question, but Derpy, why did you hammer SV again?

[Hoopla]

R.t.f.t.

?
You basically said you didn't like how he was playing. Can you explain your mindset in more detail leading up to that point?

[Hoopla]

I'm familiar with the abbreviation. Why are you being so callous with me?

I think your suspicion was fairly cheap and almost set up. I don't think it was an unreasonable question to ask if your belief went any deeper than what you led on. Do you remember much about that passage of play and how you were feeling?

[Hoopla]

Controversial opinion warning:


I think GNR is scum.

[Hoopla]

I'm being callous cause I'm pissed I was ignored, every person ignored the blatant contradiction by charlie. I mean if we would have at least lynched collyer yesterday, that would have made more sense. Charlie's hammer just confirms to me he is scum.

I'm not going to defend my hammer of SV, I've already done it. The fact you are trying to stir it up again just makes you look scummy.

I was suspicious of SV, he wouldn't explain his actions. I gave him a last chance and he basically says FU Scum so I hammered his ass. He is 10x worse player than DeityKabuto and deserved what he got.

For what it's worth, I think Charlie makes a lot of sense as a partner with GNR. So does Collyer, though.

[Hoopla]

Are you fucking serious? Rainbow and I single-handedly saved this game. If I was scum, I would have won on Day 2 and not gone through a 6 day cycle just for the hell of it. Whispersilk was never being lynched on Day 2 without the speedlynch thing, I was never being lynched there. I'm pretty sure there was enough mislynch fodder going around on D2 to make it game over.

WHY WOULD I DELAY THE GAME LIKE THIS? WHY WOULD I GIVE THE TOWN THE CHANCE AT A FREE LYNCH AND MORE INFORMATION WHEN I DIDN'T NEED TO? It makes no sense. I'm town and there's no fucking way I'm being lynched.

[Hoopla]

whispersilk

(L-0): Hoopla, Rainbowdash, Derpy Hooves, Charlie,

fatlikepig

Not voting:

NoodleGoomba

,

whispersilk

, Collyer, Guy_Named_Riggs

See, as much as I want to believe the whispersilk was driven by an allTown force, I think that to be unlikely. More probable it's one on, one off the wagon.

~~

An appeal: In the event that I do get lynched, don't let me go in vain. You NEED to lynch either Hoopla or Rainbowdash immediately after me.

Derp. This makes no sense either. You narrow it down to 1 scum on and 1 scum off OR both scum off the wagon, yet you want to lynch Rainbow or I after you? I'm not math whiz, but in my novice opinion, it seems likelier that you'd find scum in Collyer/GNR.

[Hoopla]

I weep for the both of us, Hoopla. Does your defense of yourself extends to Rainbowdash?

I'll digest your rantpost at a later time. For now, I'm off.

I'm still very confident Rainbow is town, and he redirected the speedlynch onto whispersilk when he could have picked Collyer or fatlikepig. WHY WOULD SHE DO THAT?

"HURRR BUT HOOPLASD SCUM BUS, IF WE JUST BELIEVED THEM TO BE CONFIRMED TOWN FOR BUSSING, THEN THEY'D JUST DO IT EVERYTIME."

No. Shut up. Scum don't bus and give away four mislynches to town when they only need one.

I won't speak for Rainbow here, but I can tell you right now, bussing so recklessly to give the town this many lynches is STUPID and no amount of town credit is worth it. As scum, by the time you get to mid to late game, that town credit evaporates (as seen now). A perfect example of stupid, unnecessary bussing that wasn't work the town points is the last Nomination Game, where Fate bussed his buddies hard on D2 and D3, even nominating himself and a buddy as well as himself later in the game. Presumably he should be drowning in the amount of town points he gets for being part of those lynches, and he was for a bit, but that dried up after two or three mislynches.

IT WAS COMPLETELY SUBOPTIMAL TO BUS SO RECKLESSLY. I'd never let this happen as scum for this exact reason. I don't give a fuck how self-meta looks, but it's just so completely insane. It's the equivalent of a player not hammering in lylo, then the town unvoting, suspicious that the non-hammerer is scum playing with them. Yes, really. This isn't an exaggeration. This game would have been won on D2 if I were scum. Trust me.

[Hoopla]

Are you fucking serious? Rainbow and I single-handedly saved this game. If I was scum, I would have won on Day 2 and not gone through a 6 day cycle just for the hell of it. Whispersilk was never being lynched on Day 2 without the speedlynch thing, I was never being lynched there. I'm pretty sure there was enough mislynch fodder going around on D2 to make it game over.

WHY WOULD I DELAY THE GAME LIKE THIS? WHY WOULD I GIVE THE TOWN THE CHANCE AT A FREE LYNCH AND MORE INFORMATION WHEN I DIDN'T NEED TO? It makes no sense. I'm town and there's no fucking way I'm being lynched.

You were trying to lynch fat and than collyer. Nobody was going with it.

To keep your plan going you realized you had to get rainbow on your side so you switched to her FOS.

You tried to push fat and your quick change to collyer felt weird.

For the sake of winning this game for town, you have to be lynched. Sorry.

AS OPPOSED TO YOU WHO DIDN'T WANT TO SPEEDLYNCH ANYONE. AND THEN COLLYER.

I ALWAYS PREFERED WHISPERSILK TO COLLYER. THE REASON I VOTEED COLLYER BEFORE WHISPERSILK WAS TO COMPROMISE WITH YOU TWATS WHO WANTED TO LYNCH COLLYER. BUT WHEN I GOT A HINT OF SUPPORT ON WHISPERSILK (ONE VOTE ON WHISPER), I SWAPPED AND PUSHED IT AS BEST I COULD.

Seriously. You have NO reason to lynch me.

[Hoopla]

Alright, I'm going to cool down and come back later, because I feel stupid arguing like this. I'll present my case for GNR then.

[Hoopla]

Alright, I'm going to cool down and come back later, because I feel stupid arguing like this. I'll present my case for GNR then.

how later is later?

Right about now. You ready?

[Hoopla]

So, I've had a collection of thoughts pooling in the back of my brain the last couple of days, and now that I have time to sit down and cross-reference those thoughts, I still feel confident GNR is scum. I think we explained away him being town faultily during Day 1, and have been afflicted by this belief to the point where none of us have really paying attention to what he is doing (or rather, not doing).

To elaborate on that point, the original case on him during Day 1 drove him to L-1 temporarily before Rainbow effectively collapsed it citing this reason:

I'm almost ready to kill the GNR wagon because of lurkers on a whole. There are four ponies doing nothing in this game, but only GNR gets flack?

...

The fact that the wagon is on him and just about nopony cares about the other lurkers is making me think mislynch.

This appeared to be the general consensus amongst the town initially and for the next couple of days. The problem with this reasoning is the composition of the GNR wagon throughout Day 1. It hit two separate peaks, with this being the first;

Guy_Named_Rigss (L-1): Collyer,

Rainbowdash

,

fatlikepig

,

farside22

,

Hoopla

farside22

(L-4):

whispersilk

,

NoodleGoomba

.
Derpy Hooves (L-5):

Shattered Viewpoint

.
Charlie (L-5): Derpy Hooves.

NoodleGoomba

(L-5): Guy_Named_Riggs.

Not Voting: Charlie

This is the moment just before Rainbowdash unvotes to kill a lot of the momentum the GNR-wagon had. Looking at the make-up of this wagon, the only real unconfirmed player (from my perspective) is Collyer, who's vote was a residual left-over from the RVS (he had barely posted up until this point, ergo his vote on GNR had no intention to lynch and certainly wasn't based on the tells everyone else was voting him for).

The problem with this vote count is it destroys Rainbow's reason for stopping the wagon: it doesn't mean shit that GNR is the only lurker being targeted as the supporters of his wagon are town. Originally on Day 1 this concept has merit, as one lurker being pushed over the others implies scum are selectively choosing which lurker-wagon to support, without having to justify why. The wagon did build quite easily with no competition from the other lurkers, which made that a reasonable belief, but we now know that this wasn't the case. It's very likely that the entirety of the active participants on GNR's wagon was town, which removes the case against GNR: scum are deliberately picking this lurker over others. No, town chose this themselves.

Anyway, after Rainbow unvotes and I unvote, the GNR-wagon endures a late rally with NoodleGoomba and SV voting him:

Guy_Named_Riggs (L-1): Collyer,

fatlikepig

,

farside22

,

NoodleGoomba

,

Shattered Viewpoint

.

NoodleGoomba

(L-4): Guy_Named_Riggs,

Hoopla

farside22

(L-5):

whispersilk

.
Derpy Hooves (L-5): Charlie.
Charlie (L-5): Derpy Hooves.

Not Voting:

Rainbowdash

Again, the second peak of the wagon is all town. It's important to note that Collyer had not posted content during the formation of GNR's wagon, from the first peak to the second. In fact, his first real post coming back into the game is him bailing from the GNR wagon:

I've had to do this work but I handed it in today so I will be able to concentrate much more on this game. I've also just read the whole thread again.

I'm suspicipus of Hoopla. It doesn't help town to change your vote without explaining it. She also made a lot of fuss of Derpy Hooves' alt, despite Derpy Hooves not wanting to reveal it and NoodleGoomba arguing against her too. Then she makes a case on NoodleGoomba which includes an explanation of Hoopla's actions when town, which coincide with her actions in this game. Given the reputation she has, I don't suppose it would be difficult for her to play contray to her meta, especially as she made a point of posting it.

I'm also suspicipus of Shattered Viewpoint for voting for four different players in five posts.

UNVOTE:

This leads me nicely into my next point on GNR: He makes sense as buddies with Charlie or Collyer, the two other players in the game under the most suspicion.

That unvote on GNR by Collyer emphasises his lack of investment in the GNR wagon, given he never gave reason to unvote - this implies he had little reason to be on there in the first place. His vote being a carryover from page 2 should imply that, but I want to make it clear that GNR's wagon was ALL town, both peaks. Even if Collyer is scum, he is not an active participant on this wagon, and would be unwittingly helping it, given he was not around to conform or defect from it.

Charlie also comes under suspicion if GNR is scum, given he casually sidesteps addressing the GNR wagon between the two peaks. His

only

post while GNR is under pressure is this:

That's it. I had enough. Derpy Hooves, stop being so derpy. So there.

Please explain what's weird or what you don't understand about my play, because you're being really distracting here. What do you think of this:
VOTE: Derpy Hooves

I don't think I need to explain why this enables a Charlie-GNR scumteam.

~~

The above reasoning is why the defense on GNR is flawed. It only takes a quick scan through GNR's iso to realise how poor his Day 1 was. He deliberately sidesteps making scumreads and stances in general, despite keeping up with the thread. As opposed to our other lurkers, he was actively lurking, posting fluff, which is completely understandable from a scum perspective: he doesn't want to step on toes, is a poor liar, is scared of making a commitment to a wagon - or any combination of the three.

That by itself isn't a rock solid case, but we really need to drop this collective town read on GNR, because it does not make a lick of sense when there was NO scum on his wagon actively taking advantage of him lurking (which is what we were worried was happening).

Skipping ahead to Day 2, he missed the whole Day due to V/LA. I'm not sure if he was away for the entire Day throughout his V/LA, and I'm not going to criticise him for missing the Day. What I will criticise him for is the belief I still hold in regards to the Day 2 speedwagon: There is too much evidence to suggest that scum had little to no hand in the selection of the lynch.

We saw on Day 1 pretty much ALL the townies colluded and wanted GNR lynched at some point, with only unconfirmed players NOT ever voting him. And I think this is what we saw when whispersilk was lynched. Nobody took advantage of the fatlikepig opportunity for a speedlynch, nobody (really) took advantage of Collyer (this is possibly because he is scum though), and yet we still managed to lynch whispersilk. This is a KEY indication that scum didn't play a big part in Day 2, because someone other than whispersilk would have been lynched if the key players were scum influencing where the speedwagon went. Look at this:

whispersilk

(L-0):

Hoopla

,

Rainbowdash

, Derpy Hooves, Charlie,

fatlikepig

Not voting:

NoodleGoomba

,

whispersilk

, Collyer, Guy_Named_Riggs

I think most of us can agree that AT MOST there is only one scum on the whispersilk wagon, and although it's likely to be Charlie if anyone, the possibility that Collyer-GNR is the scumteam is real. GNR with Charlie or Collyer makes the most sense, as it also complies with the Day 1 deductions as well, which is very encouraging news.

~~

I suppose the question I'll ask everyone now is: why do you believe GNR is town? Or rather, why have you eliminated him as a key suspect? Because I think the only real point in his favour for being town has been debunked.

[Hoopla]

My name is in green because it's from my perspective. Rainbow's name is in green because she was the one who played the biggest part in redirecting the speedlynch onto whispersilk.

Can you answer the question I pose at the end of my post please? I don't really know what your stance on GNR is.

[Hoopla]

Why is Collyer better than GNR?

[Hoopla]

Do the game a favour and set some time aside to give it a reread with a clean slate. Try and forget what alignments you've assigned to people and what conclusions you've already locked in.

When you're not even remembering why you think someone is scummy, you need to reread the game.

[Hoopla]

Is this something you've regularly encountered?

[Hoopla]

Derpy, please tell me back to back GNR and Collyer lynches wouldn't net us at least one scum? Remember, we just need one in the next two lynches to buy ourselves another mislynch. There's no way both scum were on whispersilk wagon.

[Hoopla]

Err, no. I've been right on whispersilk. I've been wrong on NoodleGoomba and fatlikepig. These are the lynches I have been a key player in.

Why are you only paranoid about me? Why aren't you paranoid about GNR being scum? Why aren't you paranoid about Rainbow? Paranoia for the sake of it is irrational because it isn't grounded in reason. All it serves is as a way to hold suspicion of someone without investigating it and without being challenged on it, plus it also ignores/doesn't accurate assess the probabilities of your paranoia being true (on me or other players).

If you want me to defend myself on something I will, but I don't like it when people suspect me and don't me a reasonable stage to debate the case. I feel your suspicion on me and to a lesser extent Charlie's isn't more than gut which I can't defend myself against, other than saying you're wrong.

[Hoopla]

If you want to play the game that way, then I wasn't on the SV wagon D1, D2 I wanted fatlikepig dead, but whispersilk was always my second choice. On D3, fatlikepig wasn't my first choice and on D4 I wanted Collyer over NG.

If you're going to discredit the time I lynched scum, then you also have to apply the same standard to my other Days. It works both ways.

[Hoopla]

if you are such a big fan of "lynching for information" you would agree to let us lynch you so we know 100% without a doubt you didn't just pull the greatest scum trickery in all of mafiascum.

No offense, but this is retarded logic. If the only way I'm scum is if I pulled off the "greatest scum trickery in all of mafiascum", it stands to reason that this must be an extremely unlikely scenario. Either that, or you seriously think I'm a mafia god or some description, which I am definitely not.

The fact that you believe this to be an epic, monumental piece of scum trickery by me implies I was an important reason in the whispersilk lynch. If I wasn't and whispersilk was going to be lynched without me, that doesn't seem so epic on my part. So, which is it?

[Hoopla]

I so want to believe that this is true. Really I want to. But I can't. If I'm going to be a mislynch, my last will and asking favour is to have one Hoopla or Rainbowdash lynched. Mainly because of the fact I can't stand either of them being Mafia and making the rest of Town look like total dimwits at endgame.

Yeah, but you haven't exactly explained why one of myself/Rainbow is likelier to be scum than the Collyer/GNR lurk machine. I'm dazzled why there is paranoia about myself and to a lesser extent Rainbow, when it should be squarely on the non-contributing players - the players who avoided voting for or talking about the most important mafia role.

I honestly don't get how myself or Rainbow can even be considered in the same breath as Collyer/GNR. Nobody has given me a decent answer on why didn't Hoopla/Rainbow just win on D2/3 instead of Day 6.

[Hoopla]

What I'm trying to say with that was using vote count speculations to determine I'm scum because almost all town was voting for me at two points isn't very accurate. these votes counts show that town can easily all be voting town, and believe the person is scum.

The only players who didn't vote you (outside of the RVS) are Collyer and Charlie, the two likeliest suspects, which says a lot about scum's willingness to jump on board you. The fact that scum almost certainly didn't vote you, but basically every other townie did is compelling.

~~

GNR is the best lynch today guys, so I'll finally put my vote down to get on with it:

VOTE: GNR

[Hoopla]