Open 317 Masons & Monks (Game Over) Finished: September 8

[zMuffinMan]

Hi. 42 pages. Be back later.

[zMuffinMan]

OK, will do. I'm slowly getting through this.

Feel free to give me a summary of who's scum and why.

[zMuffinMan]

Oh, right. Guido is a hydra. I was reading over the quicktopic trying to figure out why a former-me was talking to a guido A and a guido B. Makes sense now.

Yea, it'll be a long day.

So many terrorists pushing on my case.

I could spend all day reading up on games with DK in them.

Anyway,

I'm like 3/4 of the way through. Your beard looks sheepable.

Is there going to be a deadline extension or am I in a rush to finish this read-through immediately?

[zMuffinMan]

Wait, nm, just checked the previous page. I get a week. Cool. Finishing this after sleep.

[zMuffinMan]

Hi. I'll finish my reading in the next 24 hours. I'm lazy and didn't want to waste time reading in case I was NKed.

[zMuffinMan]

Scott, what's your read on Yank(andrew)?

Anyone wanna take a guess at why Thor was shot twice last night? Both scum teams considered him a larger threat than confirmed non-them. It would not surprise me in the least if both of Scott and Yank(Andrew) are scum - and, independent of the Thor NK, I'd say there's at least one scum in that pair.

I've finished reading the thread. I'll be looking at some ISOs and do a full catchup post soon.

[zMuffinMan]

also, muffin, the above is referring to you. dont you find that more intersting than the thor night kill last night?

wat

[zMuffinMan]

So you're saying that because mafia chose not to kill confirmed-non-wolves--but-possibly-mafia, one of Guido and I must be mafia?

Read Guido's #1052

[zMuffinMan]

DK is parading around here like he is the town leader when he isn't even confirmed. This is starkly different than the Large Normal I played with him where he claimed JK on the first page and was obv town, but continued to derp through the game generally unhelpful. This playstyle does not match that here as a claimed PR. Link below.

I've played with DK quite a few times now, and find it almost impossible to read him. He's a VI. Some games he plays really aggressive as town, other games he plays really passive as town. Linking to a town game where he played differently means nothing to me. Read O307 for an example of DK playing in pretty much the same way as he is this game.

He may or may not be town in this game, but the fact that he's playing differently to another game in which he was town means very little.

Also, I currently have a 'leaning town' read on him. I really, really, really don't think he's able to pull off this sort of aggression as scum.

assuming you both are town masons. if the mafia never kill the masons, and get the werewolves killed, theres gonna be 2 confirmed non mafia
do you think the mafia can win that (theres like 7? people left? or 6)

Ah, andrew. Every game I'm in with you brings a smile to my face while simultaneously bringing a single tear to my eye.

We're confirmed non-wolves, not confirmed non-mafia. We're not actually a threat to mafia. Why the wolf didn't kill us, I have no idea, but saying that one of us must be scum because mafia didn't kill either of us makes no sense.

---

Anyway, I'm thinking a lynch of either scott or andrew would be the best option today. I need to properly ISO yank(andrew) and scott before I say anything else, but I still think the Thor NK pretty much means that one or both of them is scum. Actually, might do a proper read of Thor's ISO while I'm at it.

[zMuffinMan]

scott, just assume for a moment that neither Guido or I are scum. Tell me why scum would want to kill us, especially after what you just posted.

[zMuffinMan]

jesus christ

now why would werewolves kill the mason? i see no logic there.

HOW THE FK WOULD I KNOW? Pretty sure they didn't know he was a mason.

so theres a possibility that one of muffin or guido are mafia and they are definitely not confirmed werewolves
1) why is one of them not dead (they are the big threat to werewolf)

NO SHIT. Why did the werewolf (and the mafia) kill Thor over confirmed non-them?

Take a guess, andrew. Even you should be able to figure out the most likely explanation here.

the mafia dont even need to kill the monks.

duh.

the fact that the werewolf hasnt taken a swipe at you guys suggests that he is
unsure which one of u is mafia
therefore: one of you is mafia

Let me get this straight.

Because... a werewolf... chose not to kill either of the claimed monks... one of the monks... must be scum...

It's difficult to comprehend just how amazing your powers of deduction are, andrew. When I grow up, I want to be like you.

[zMuffinMan]

Hey, wanna know what's interesting?

Yank didn't mention BlackBerry once on D1, other than asking whether he picked up his prod.

Wanna know what else is interesting?

Blackberry didn't mention Yank once, either.

Wanna know one other interesting thing?

Other than maybe Scott, andrew(Yank) had the most motive to kill Thor.

And this whole "durr let's shift the focus to the monks" crap today just makes me even more sure of this. You're scum.

VOTE: andrew

[zMuffinMan]

Been away on business. Catching up soon, though it looks like I've missed almost nothing.

[zMuffinMan]

I've been really lazy in this game. Making time for this later today.

@bv,

What's also interesting about your VCA is that Yank was on

none

of those wagons.

[zMuffinMan]

And why is DK green?

[zMuffinMan]

Oh right, treating him like town.

[zMuffinMan]

No.

If we lynch mafia, and two townies die tonight, then a townie volunteers themself for the lynch tomorrow. That is optimal play.

[zMuffinMan]

Apologies, been really lazy. Getting to this in next 18 hours.

[zMuffinMan]

Lets hurry and lynch scott, Thor was Town and he suspected scott. Scott already has suspicion since both days ago. He is not a bad lynch.

Thor had a number of suspicions. Why do you want to lynch Scott over his other suspicions?

Cirno looks bad on the GC wagon assuming that it's not all town.

Knowing myself to be town, it would be all town if you are town. That seems unlikely but is ultimately WIFOM.

er...

I need to think about something here.

unvote

[zMuffinMan]

How does me being on wagons look bad? I don't understand that concept.

OK then...

Well apart from the fact that it should be rather obvious what the answer to that question is, it's inconsistent with this...

The VCA is interesting though. Cirno looks bad on the GC wagon assuming that it's not all town.

Two more things here:

1) It

looks

like you're suggesting that Guido is town. Otherwise, I can't really understand why Cirno would "look bad" on that wagon.
2) Why is that particular wagon the only one that stood out to you? No other opinions on the VCA?

[zMuffinMan]

I never suggested that, or at least I did not intend to. In a game that is 4/12 scum with 2 scum groups it seems HIGHLY unlikely that any collection of 6 players would all be town. Even just randomly taking 6 players puts that at about 8%.

I've seen far too many people lynched on this basis. It's a really easy excuse for scum to jump on. For example, Cold War Mafia (which bvoigt played in) - Enigma was lynched pretty much purely on bandwagon analysis (he was part of an 8 person bandwagon on town that was entirely town, and supposedly the odds of that happening were extreeeeemely low). I'm always wary of people using this as an excuse for lynching someone because it's a cop out substitute for actually scum hunting.

Yank being off every wagon was the only other interesting thing to me. That screams avoidance and an attempt to just cruise through.

So what's your actual opinion on andrew then?

Do you think he's scum?

Why are you withholding your vote?

I don't understand the concept of being on wagons, when I have explained all my votes.

Most people explain their votes. Even "senseless vote hopping" is generally explained in one way or another.

----

Anyway, back to business.

VOTE: andrew

[zMuffinMan]

Yeah, I know you were in that game, but you weren't alive when it happened and I wasn't sure whether you were following it at that point. The reason I'm bringing it up is that the

only

thing you had to say about the VCA is that Cirno looks bad because of it (until I pointed out that andrew/Yank weren't on any of the bandwagons). I don't understand why that particular vote count was the only one that interested you.

Everyone will claim they voted for legitimate reasons.

Also wondering why you were so hesitant in laying down a vote.

[zMuffinMan]

...

I'm disregarding possible WIFOM until I see your flip.

If you're actually town, it just means we're heavily relying on scum cross-killing.

The remaining werewolf pretty much needs to hit mafia tonight, anyway.

[zMuffinMan]

Uh... Our QT is mostly void, and I didn't particularly see any reason to post in it last night.

I'll be doing my own VCA at some point in time this weekend (hopefully).

[zMuffinMan]

I'll have my thoughts out some time tonight (currently 2pm, have a little work to do that will take me through til about 5pm).

[zMuffinMan]

Actually I'm not in any state to post right now. I've had 2 hours sleep in the last 48 hours so I'll get to this after some sleep.

Things I have written down in notepad:

- Review Thor ISO
- Review D1/D2 votecounts

[zMuffinMan]

So I figure it's time to stop being lazy because there's lots of lurking and that's not a good thing.

Looking over the votecounts in BV's post.

DeityKabuto - 4 - (CSL, Guido Crescendo, Fighting Shadow,

Chevre

)

So, I had a look back at the context behind this wagon.

It was mostly a RVS wagon, and is actually not correct. Fighting Shadow (Scott) was off the wagon at this point and Guido was the last to join it, "shameless bandwagoning" to get discussion going.

It's interesting that 3/5 of those players are still alive, but I don't really think it's worth looking at very deeply.

Guido Crescendo - 6 - (

Darkcoffeejazz

,

VitaminR

,

Tomie Uzumaki

, Cirno,

BlackBerry

, Scott Brosius)

I think this one is incorrect...

Guido Crescendo - 5 - (Darkcoffeejazz, DeityKabuto, VitaminR, Tomie Uzumaki, BlackBerry) (L-2)

Prior to #412... In #412 Scott votes Guido, Guido claims Monk, Scott unvotes in #425, Cirno jumps on in #429.

I need to go back and look at it this one properly.

Darkcoffeejazz - 7 - (

BlackBerry

, Guido Crescendo, Scott Brosius,

DeityKabuto

,

cjdrum

, smallpeoples343,

Darkcoffeejazz

)

Need to review Scott and Guido's reasons for being on the Darkcoffeejazz wagon.

Descent - 5 - (Guido Crescendo,

Thor

, Scott Brosius,

cjdrum

, Cirno)

And again, Scott and Guido early on the wagon, and Cirno hammered shortly after I replaced in.

Incoming thoughts on Thor's ISO and why mafia might have killed him (although I suspect it has something to do with at least one of Scott/Guido being mafia), followed by thoughts on Scott/Guido if I get around to it before I fall asleep.

[zMuffinMan]

(although I suspect it has something to do with at least one of Scott/

Guido

being mafia)

I have no idea where I got the idea that Thor thought Guido was scum. Scratch that.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm not sure what to make of this, but so far nobody has really assessed why both scum teams targeted Thor, so I'm left to wonder why not? If Scott is town, the Thor NK implicates him pretty badly, and makes him lynchbait. But no one has even made a move to push a Scott lynch based on the weird Thor double-kill. Which means one of two things: Either Scott actually is scum and the glaringly obvious is glaringly obvious because it's true, or scum is sitting back and letting me do their work for them.

2) The player slots for cjdrum and cirno are not scum together.

What was this based on?

And I'lllll have to continue ISO work on people in the morning. Can barely keep my eyes open.

[zMuffinMan]

Oh, sweet. One less game I need to catch up on.

VOTE: Guido

[zMuffinMan]

to be fair, I don't think I did anything to deserve this win.

It was mostly me replacing in, werewolves refusing to kill monks, everyone going "hey, you're town!" and me going "uh.... UMMMMMMMM... ERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR............... Yes.. Yes I am........................................"

[zMuffinMan]

I guess it helps when my predecessor makes the absurdly foolish mistake of outing himself as a monk and then somehow my slot doesn't get killed by werewolves. *phew*

[zMuffinMan]

Frequent vote counts and good with prods and replacements (although I have no idea why I was sent that mass prod on the last day a few hours after I posted ;/), but if you want to mod a newbie game, I

think

VRK frowns upon the mod chatting to players like you were doing in this game. As far as I know, he likes mods remaining completely "neutral". I didn't mind it, and I personally prefer it when a mod is light-hearted, but just something to keep in mind for newbie games.