Open 328: Mad Social Science (2of4) (Game Over, Town wins)


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Post Post #3 (isolation #0) » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:47 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

/confirm
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Post Post #5 (isolation #1) » Thu Aug 25, 2011 6:04 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Me!

Hoopla and VitaminR are the SEs.
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Post Post #8 (isolation #2) » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:57 am

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Compromise: we're both ICs, Hoopla and Vit as SEs.
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Post Post #13 (isolation #3) » Thu Aug 25, 2011 10:01 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Unvote, vote: Hoopla


We should quicklynch Hoopla before she gets a chance to post.
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Post Post #17 (isolation #4) » Thu Aug 25, 2011 10:32 am

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^scum

Join date elitism is clearly a town tell for me.
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Post Post #40 (isolation #5) » Thu Aug 25, 2011 11:37 pm

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Hi, I'm new.
Who's the IC?
Vote: No Lynch


Town read, please, Hoopla.

P.S.
Unvote, vote: Quilford
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Post Post #56 (isolation #6) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 12:31 am

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Hoopla wrote:CES, you're trying too hard. I don't buy it.

I'm not sure why you think I'm selling anything.

P.S. why isn't Quilford dead yet?
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Post Post #58 (isolation #7) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 12:40 am

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Mislynches are not uncommon, so that's not a good reason.
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Post Post #62 (isolation #8) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 12:48 am

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Quilford wrote:so I'm a mislynch?

If you are town as you claim, then yes.

P.S. Fairly sure that's my role.
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Post Post #64 (isolation #9) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 1:02 am

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Because you're claiming my role?
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Post Post #66 (isolation #10) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 1:15 am

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Bandwagonning, obv.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #11) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 1:51 am

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As if you could catch me within 3 pages.
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Post Post #71 (isolation #12) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:13 am

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Then why aren't you happy, hmm?
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Post Post #74 (isolation #13) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:22 am

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Vote: Quilford
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Post Post #85 (isolation #14) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 3:25 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I'm the younger one.

I was obvious in Nomination Mafia; he was not. I also pretended to doubt him for a while before I eventually switched to PZ because of how informative his reactions were.
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Post Post #92 (isolation #15) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 7:01 am

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MrBump wrote:The game's started? Oh, that changes things. Forget what I said about reactions, I thought it was still pre-game.

what
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Post Post #96 (isolation #16) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 8:17 am

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Way to pay attention, Hoopla - none of the pre-game votes counted.
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Post Post #98 (isolation #17) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 8:29 am

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I think you're forgetting the part where you pretend to be town, Hoopla.
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Post Post #100 (isolation #18) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 8:44 am

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Always tricksy, aren't you, Hoopla?
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Post Post #102 (isolation #19) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 8:53 am

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Are you really this terrible at reading me?
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Post Post #105 (isolation #20) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:53 am

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I can follow my own thought pattern perfectly in those quotes.
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Post Post #108 (isolation #21) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:04 am

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Stop emoting, start talking, Hoopls.
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Post Post #112 (isolation #22) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 12:36 pm

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Maybe it's fate telling you something, Quilford.
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Post Post #119 (isolation #23) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 1:15 am

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It's in her role PM.
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Post Post #122 (isolation #24) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 2:00 am

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Quilford, link me to a game wherein you were scum.
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Post Post #129 (isolation #25) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:48 am

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It would be appreciated if you actually said stuff, Hoopls.
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Post Post #138 (isolation #26) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:10 pm

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mykonian wrote:
Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:It would be appreciated if you actually said stuff, Hoopls.


You've been focussing on Hoopla quite a bit. Because this could be said to more people. Is there some vendetta I'm not aware of, or are you suspicious of her?

She kicked me out of the Open queue!
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Post Post #140 (isolation #27) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:57 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I don't see how I'm supposed to get anything out of what Hoopla has posted so far.

Fairly sure I don't worry about anyone as scum, myk. If anything, I like the challenge.
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Post Post #142 (isolation #28) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:19 am

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^scum
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Post Post #145 (isolation #29) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:41 am

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Hoopla and you.
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Post Post #147 (isolation #30) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:58 am

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Vote: Killerjester


Hoopla, with me!
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Post Post #151 (isolation #31) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 9:44 am

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I don't see either as problematic.
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Post Post #168 (isolation #32) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 11:42 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

mykonian wrote:Preview edit: BTW, was the killer vote just omgus then? Since you don't actually suspect him.

^buddy tell
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Post Post #170 (isolation #33) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 1:23 am

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A tell that suggests two people are scums together.
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Post Post #172 (isolation #34) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 1:57 am

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The point fits the narrative of the argument he's making quite well yet he inexplicably downplays it..
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Post Post #177 (isolation #35) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 2:45 am

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Lack of other people doing stuff, Quilford.

P.S. I was completely right at the time you replaced me, just fyi.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #36) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 3:28 am

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mykonian wrote:You're better then this.

Am not.

P.S. than*

P-edit: who's cane?
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Post Post #195 (isolation #37) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 11:56 am

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I wouldn't mind you being the first nightkill at all, myk.
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Post Post #216 (isolation #38) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 12:27 am

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I don't even know what half of your emoticons are supposed to signify, Hoopls.
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Post Post #227 (isolation #39) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:19 am

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I liked Hoopla's "HMMM?".
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Post Post #234 (isolation #40) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 7:43 am

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Townhunting is easier to fake.
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Post Post #240 (isolation #41) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 8:09 am

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Fairly sure that's A) not true and B) a very weird position to have at this point of the game.
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Post Post #245 (isolation #42) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 8:44 am

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killerjester wrote:And there's my case! Questions/comments/concerns?

It's suspiciously exhaustive.
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Post Post #249 (isolation #43) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:07 am

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killerjester wrote:
Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:It's suspiciously exhaustive.

The entire thing, or just specific part?

None of the "specific parts" are in any sense exhaustive, so I think you can figure this one out for yourself.
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Post Post #256 (isolation #44) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:54 am

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mykonian wrote:and that leaves Bump and VitR for the hammer. Which I seriously hope they won't, seen the players on that wagon. I'd be surprised if neither CES nor DDD was scum, and VitR could add hoopla to that list. And I doubt that scum would be bussing here already.

You know I would be.
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Post Post #260 (isolation #45) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:22 am

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Oh man, a D1 Hoopla mislynch does sound very enticing. Let me think for a sec.
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Post Post #262 (isolation #46) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:32 am

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How is calling jester's case suspiciously exhaustive not doubleplustownie?
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Post Post #266 (isolation #47) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:59 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I like a killer-myko pairing here.

Quilford wrote:<3

now I want to hammer killer

stop me please

================[]
[]================
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Post Post #285 (isolation #48) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:18 pm

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Neither VitaminR or MrBump makes sense as a Hooplapartner, just fyi (unless VitR is parroting me by design re: Hoopla and that seems unlikely).
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Post Post #288 (isolation #49) » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:27 am

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Hey hey, evilsnail, what do you think of killerjester's tale?
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Post Post #291 (isolation #50) » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:07 am

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killerjester wrote:Who does make sense as a Hoopla buddy? Can you provide reasoning or is this just a gut?

You work. I'd probably be bussing more if I were Hoopla's partner, but I'm not out of the question. DDDP works just fine (he probably overexplains his null read on Hoopla a little at one point). See no reason to exclude Elli. Myko's talk surrounding me vs. Hoopla suggests not. Quilford is probably town, but works with Hoopls otherwise.

MrBump wrote:Sure, Hoopla, Elibereth and Quilford give a town-y vibe to me.

This makes me think it's not Hoopla-MrBump given Hoopla's erratic play so far.

I think VitRscum would have gone for a more conservative approach when dealing with his scum partner.
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Post Post #293 (isolation #51) » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:38 am

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killerjester wrote:So @CES, your buddy hunting of Hoopla suggests you think she is more likely to be scum. This doesn't really agree with your vote on me.

My buddy hunting of Hoopla suggests that I think Hooplabuddy hunting is more productive (this doesn't quite follow as easily as you make out either, but it happens to be true).
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Post Post #295 (isolation #52) » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:12 am

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I looked for connections between Hoopla and other people; I did not look for connections between killerjester and other people. Killerjester proposed that one might infer from this that I was more suspicious of Hoopla, which would appear to clash with my choice of vote. My counterproposal was that one might infer from this that looking for connections between Hoopla and other people was more productive (how suspicious Hoopla is obviously factors into how productive it is, but it's not all of it). I added the caveat that, although my counterproposal was correct in terms of its conclusion, this still wasn't really all that was going on (in particular both my connection exploring efforts were in reaction to stuff).
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Post Post #302 (isolation #53) » Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:49 am

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VitaminR wrote:CES is probably town, though he needs to tell me why he thinks Hoopla is scum, in his own words.

Lack of scumhunting + she seems to think I'm scum (I'd totally be able to tell I'm town by now; I don't think Hooplatown'd be this wrong).
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Post Post #306 (isolation #54) » Sat Sep 03, 2011 11:23 am

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No, that's not it, myko.

killerjester wrote:The latter is placing an unfair burden of proficiency on Hoopla, and shouldn't really be used as a reason to find her scummy. Cos fallacies make for bad cases.

1) It's not a fallacy (it shouldn't be hard to see that "I don't think Hooplatown would be this wrong. Thus Hoopla is more likely to be scum." is valid reasoning).
2) There's nothing unfair about it.
3) It's more than just proficiency that leads me to that conclusion. She's pretty familiar with my playstyle.
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Post Post #308 (isolation #55) » Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:15 pm

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In post 307, killerjester wrote:Unless she has a history of being able to early-clear you when she's town and a history of not being able to early-clear you when she's scum, then your point isn't very indicative of her alignment.

I'd love to be able to back up my points with empirical data, but mafia rarely allows for it. This is a very basic form of scumhunting - I ask myself what types of reactions I'd expect to see from Hooplatown and from Hooplascum - and I really don't get you why you have a problem with it.

Additionally, if this kind of thing had happened often enough to allow for empirical data, it probably wouldn't be very interesting to look at - Hoopla would have a fairly good notion of how she'd react to me (whereas, given that she hasn't dealt with this situation before, it's not at all unrealistic to suppose that she would get it wrong as scum).
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Post Post #313 (isolation #56) » Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:32 am

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Or Hoopla, Elli?
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Post Post #316 (isolation #57) » Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:23 am

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Probably because I don't. I wouldn't've any problems if she had me at null or even some mild suspicion.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #58) » Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:37 am

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To be fair, I did forget to correct killerjester phrasing it that way.

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Post Post #324 (isolation #59) » Sun Sep 04, 2011 11:59 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Time for a shake-up.

Unvote, vote: Mykonian


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Post Post #334 (isolation #60) » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:02 pm

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In post 332, MrBump wrote:No, CES, I am not voting mykonian. VOTE: CES

Yeah, no, wrong response.
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Post Post #346 (isolation #61) » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:12 am

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I totally started thinking about hammering.
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Post Post #368 (isolation #62) » Wed Sep 07, 2011 12:29 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 365, Hoopla wrote:Something about this isn't adding up. Can we change directions before it's too late?

Let's!
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Post Post #377 (isolation #63) » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:19 am

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I'd be happy if my #2 candidate got lynched most days.
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Post Post #384 (isolation #64) » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:34 am

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I kinda want to lynch myko now, but I know that's not going to happen. :(
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Post Post #409 (isolation #65) » Wed Sep 07, 2011 11:08 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Deadline that soon, aye? That definitely snuck up on me.

I have to prioritize my own survival here and however much fun voting for Hoopla is (and getting Hooplascum lynched would be) that's not a fight I'm going to win, so
unvote, vote: MrBump
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Post Post #411 (isolation #66) » Wed Sep 07, 2011 11:14 am

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I see no reason to claim.
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Post Post #413 (isolation #67) » Wed Sep 07, 2011 12:12 pm

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killerjester - His entrance to the game felt off and has done some questionable things since BUT there have been flashes of genuine curiosity -> null to scum.
Hoopla - Like I said, lack of scumhunting plus her opinion of me makes me think she's scums.
mykonian - I had a town read on him in Nomination Mafia and I don't see any of the things here that I saw there. In terms of actions, if MrBump turns out to be town, he really is just pushing mislynches -> scummy.
Ellibereth - Posting has been a bit scarce, but his opinions seem to be fairly on target (as far as I can tell) -> null to town.
Debonair Danny DiPietro - More null than Angelo Colesanto's bed.
VitaminR - Haven't seen anything that VitaminRscum couldn't produce, but also nothing that makes me think you are scum. You've posted enough that that makes you townish.
MrBump - His L-1 wiggling was townish, but he dropped some real scum tells (his reaction to my "With me, MrBump!" was really off) just prior to that and on the whole he's null to scum. If I had the choice, this is the type of player I'd probably let live because I feel he's probably readable given enough time.
Quilford - I checked out one of his scum games and this is noticeably different -> town.
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Post Post #418 (isolation #68) » Thu Sep 08, 2011 12:57 am

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I trust VitaminR to make the right call.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #69) » Thu Sep 08, 2011 5:42 am

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Not enough support; it's MrBump or me.
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Post Post #426 (isolation #70) » Thu Sep 08, 2011 6:05 am

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I'd rather lynch Hoopls too, but hey, them's the breaks.
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Post Post #439 (isolation #71) » Fri Sep 09, 2011 12:29 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Well, that worked out fortuitously.

There's still 1.5 hour left according to ze countdown tags. I don't know where this confusion came from.
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Post Post #442 (isolation #72) » Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:03 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I don't get the whole "get someone claim" business, but hey, I don't have to self-hammer.
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Post Post #449 (isolation #73) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 7:43 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Plus preventing another kill gives another lynch.
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Post Post #450 (isolation #74) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 7:44 am

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Vote: Hoopls
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Post Post #457 (isolation #75) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:10 am

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Unvote, vote: mykonian
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Post Post #459 (isolation #76) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:18 am

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Quilford. VitaminR somewhat. No PoE.
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Post Post #464 (isolation #77) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 10:51 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Hoopla cleared Pokerface based on similar reasoning in Wait for your Turn, Tex!.

In post 460, killerjester wrote:If you recall, you didn't think Myko and Hoopla were scumpartners. Has this read changed any? If so, why? If not, voting Myko in #457 implies you no longer think Hoopla is scum as you did in #450. What is the reasoning for this change in perspective?

My vote for myko means I think myko's more suspicious (I'm unsure as to why Hooplascum would give up on pushing me when I was only saved Yesterday by VitR not hammering without a claim for some reason). I don't see it as problematic that my top two suspects don't look like partners (although amusingly Hoopla's most recent postings have a "FoS: myko, vote: Elli" component to them).
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Post Post #467 (isolation #78) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 11:16 am

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It means I see no reason to question that piece of reasoning (even though I think it's bunkum).
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Post Post #479 (isolation #79) » Mon Sep 12, 2011 11:57 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Your argument is silly, myk. Scum are going to try and hit a protective role regardless. I see no harm in the scum knowing the set-up. We should do a cop claimy thing.
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Post Post #482 (isolation #80) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 12:08 am

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Myko starts.
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Post Post #489 (isolation #81) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 4:47 am

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No. We're lynching you.
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Post Post #493 (isolation #82) » Tue Sep 13, 2011 10:55 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Not cop.
killerjester

In post 491, killerjester wrote:CES, who is myko's scumpartner?

Not sure. Give me a mykowagon and we can find out.
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Post Post #498 (isolation #83) » Wed Sep 14, 2011 11:23 pm

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Hoopla, with me!
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Post Post #518 (isolation #84) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 8:36 am

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Unvote, vote: Elli
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Post Post #549 (isolation #85) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 9:44 am

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In post 530, VitaminR wrote:Btw CES, why Elli?

He's lurking + seems like a productive wagon.
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Post Post #554 (isolation #86) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 9:51 am

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Unvote, vote: myko
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Post Post #559 (isolation #87) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 10:01 am

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In post 557, VitaminR wrote:I'm pretty sure now that our scum is in {Hoopla, CES, myko}.

+ I'm bushappy => myko is scum
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Post Post #561 (isolation #88) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 10:09 am

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+ I'm town => myko is scum?
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Post Post #563 (isolation #89) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 10:13 am

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We live in an imperfect world, VitR.
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Post Post #566 (isolation #90) » Thu Sep 15, 2011 10:40 am

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What? It's easy-peasy. Non-Hoopla mafia kill Quilford. Hooplamafia kill you. Elli maybe.
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Post Post #579 (isolation #91) » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:16 am

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Hint: vote myko.
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Post Post #592 (isolation #92) » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:19 pm

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Question: Hoopla, did your role-based knowledge factor into your change of heart early Today?
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Post Post #594 (isolation #93) » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:58 pm

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Yeah.
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Post Post #596 (isolation #94) » Sun Sep 18, 2011 12:08 am

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You didn't think it notable that the scum apparently nightkilled someone who was going to push for your lynch?
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Post Post #605 (isolation #95) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:57 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Or just not as awesome as Hoopla and me.
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Post Post #613 (isolation #96) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 6:27 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Not sure I believe it, but I think I'm satisfied pinning him down with that claim for now, especially since we're at evens.

Unvote, vote: killerjester


You've changed your mind on Elli, Hoopls?
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Post Post #623 (isolation #97) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:47 am

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Myko claimed doc that protected Quilford.
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Post Post #627 (isolation #98) » Mon Sep 19, 2011 10:53 pm

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What's convincing about myko's doc claim? It's the obvious move.
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Post Post #636 (isolation #99) » Wed Sep 21, 2011 11:22 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Shouldn't you be sheeping Hoopls, Elli?
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Post Post #648 (isolation #100) » Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:45 pm

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In post 643, killerjester wrote:Can someone vote CES real quick, I need to test something.

What game are you playing?
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Post Post #650 (isolation #101) » Wed Sep 21, 2011 11:07 pm

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Hey VitR, shouldn't you be able to tell that I'm town from my interactions with Hoopls and changing opinion of her?
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Post Post #669 (isolation #102) » Sat Sep 24, 2011 12:47 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 667, killerjester wrote:@CES! Your last 24 posts have been delicious one liners and your votes have been shamelessly sheeping Hoopla. Your content to the game has been pretty decent but even so I'm having a hard time reading you. Why do you have so much confidence in Hoopla's reads? Have you formed your own unique opinion on myself to tag along to your vote? And what is it?

I haven't sheeped Hoopla. I just like to make sure my vote is productive and by happenstance that has involved me following Hoopla on to a wagon a bunch of times. I've been suspicious of you since the start. It's faded somewhat since, but you're still among my top suspects.

killerjester wrote:What is your opinion on DDDP? Summarize your thoughts on the DDDP wagon, has it been building scummily at any point?

I don't really have that much of a read on DDDP. The latter question I find unproductive.
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Post Post #671 (isolation #103) » Sat Sep 24, 2011 5:34 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Myko is my top suspect, but lynching a claimed doc is suboptimal here Today.

In post 670, killerjester wrote:And you've been null on DDDP this entire game. Can you iso his posts or something, let me know what seems scummy to you and then which posts seem town and give you doubt?

I could iso him again, but that's not going to help. It's not that there are things that make me think he's town and things that make me think he's scum that balance out to a null read; I just can't get a read on his alignment at all.
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Post Post #674 (isolation #104) » Sat Sep 24, 2011 11:15 am

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I'm fairly sure (like 80%+) I'm town.
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Post Post #685 (isolation #105) » Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:35 am

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In post 683, mykonian wrote:From the posts which only ask VitR if he really thinks that CES would act like this as scum to his hoopla sheeping

1) not sheeping Hoopla
2) I only asked VitR because I didn't expect Elli or Quilford to see it. I don't see what's weird about that. Wouldn't I generally have an easier time convincing people unfamiliar with me if I were actually scums?
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Post Post #687 (isolation #106) » Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:10 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

If you're going to ask me questions, you really should read the answers. That's what townies do.
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Post Post #698 (isolation #107) » Sun Sep 25, 2011 10:00 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 696, Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:I like to think my scum game is a pretty subtle, under the radar affair. Earlier it was like every time someone has gone "CES DDD obv scum team" has come right after I moved my vote to the same target as him or noted again my disdain for his wagon. As scum I don't do things so I can use a WIFOM back door, I do them in a style that I don't have to use WIFOM back door arguments.

This sounds a lot like something I might say. And I wouldn't say it as scum.

Damn. Deadline's here soon.

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Post Post #708 (isolation #108) » Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:28 pm

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mykonian wrote:The CES wagon is where it is Quilford. If you can't see it in the rest of his posts, just check the last. It's killerjester all over again. "vote elli, need one more. Oh shit, deadline is here too." There's no case apart from the fact that Elli simply isn't here. And CES already anticipates on forcing it as a deadline lynch.

How very scummy of me wanting to get a lynch through and being honest about it! It's less than 8 hours to deadline!

In post 701, mykonian wrote:I don't know if you ever got in the position, but as town there is not a worse feeling then getting lynched, just because there needs to be a lynch and you seem the easiest achievable. Days before the lynch you see it coming, that nobody is going to hop off your wagon, and at deadline people who once proclaimed you were town hammer you. That's the hint of panic you see in Killerjesters posts, I think. At least, I would be in a state of near panic if that happened to me again.

I'm not sure why scum in that situation would feel significantly better about things.
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Post Post #710 (isolation #109) » Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:31 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Yeah, but I also always say it when I'm town.

In post 707, killerjester wrote:I felt kinda useless that I could neither show the town that I was town nor find the scum to help out in the days after I died.

Okay, now this is townish. Wanting to scumhunt is a pro-town impulse.
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Post Post #713 (isolation #110) » Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:42 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Given the amount of town reads flying around, Elli really isn't a bad lynch. Elli lurks as scum too.

Quilford wrote:No you don't.

Well, not always always, but fairly often. Same for scums. I think I've stopped saying it though.

Quilford wrote:No it isn't. It just sounds try-hard.

Not in the context of his last few posts.
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Post Post #714 (isolation #111) » Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:48 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Searching my own posts for "dead yet", if there is a pattern, it seems to be that I might fall back on it as a safe phrase as scum and say it more often (which sounds a priori plausible too).
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Post Post #722 (isolation #112) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:53 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 719, mykonian wrote:Quilford is right in the goofy last minute wagon thing he mentioned about Elli.

That sort of thing is always bullshit.
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Post Post #724 (isolation #113) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:03 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Elli is lurkerscums.
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Post Post #725 (isolation #114) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:04 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

If you're town, just stop one moment to consider how reasonable this lynch is simply given that VitR, Hoopls and Quilford are probtown.
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Post Post #728 (isolation #115) » Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:53 am

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Come on, myk.
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Post Post #732 (isolation #116) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:56 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Vote: Elli


It's Elli-myk, methinks.
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Post Post #737 (isolation #117) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:20 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Failure to hammer Elli.

We could have had an extra lynch.
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Post Post #739 (isolation #118) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:25 am

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As evidenced by the first two posts of the day being votes for Elli.
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Post Post #747 (isolation #119) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:35 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I'm not sure why you're not considering intentional no-kill, Hoopls.

Mykscum could've sent in a kill on VitR too - works especially well if Elli's his partner.
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Post Post #749 (isolation #120) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:58 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Except, as you correctly pointed out, the only scum team that would make VitR the correct killer is VitR-myko and mykoscum brings back VitRkilltarget to the conversation.

Is it even a given that scum would kill a power role (assuming two town power roles)? Elliscum might well set up a mykmislynch and protecting Hoopls should've been a no-brainer for myk, methinks.
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Post Post #751 (isolation #121) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:06 pm

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Why risk your best asset?
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Post Post #753 (isolation #122) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:13 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Fair point.

What do you think of myk gambling?
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Post Post #755 (isolation #123) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:36 pm

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Do you agree that Elli-myko would try to kill VitR?
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Post Post #757 (isolation #124) » Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:38 pm

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How do you mean "gamble"? He just claimed slightly early. Doc with a protect on Quilford was the obvious claim for scums.
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Post Post #762 (isolation #125) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:07 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

That's a misconception town is more likely to have than scum, no?

I personally think Elli-myk no-killed for the record.
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Post Post #776 (isolation #126) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:36 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I do agree that Hoopla's the one being silly here.

mykonian wrote:And CES, do I have to believe that VitR made the honest mistake that a JK and a doc can crossprotect?

Yes.
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Post Post #779 (isolation #127) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:42 am

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In post 777, Hoopla wrote:One of myko/Vitamin is scum. We're lynching one today. That is that.

^Silly
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Post Post #782 (isolation #128) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:46 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I think myk's scum but I'm not advocating his lynch either, Hoopls.

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Post Post #786 (isolation #129) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:03 am

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Myko is scum, Elli is his partner.
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Post Post #788 (isolation #130) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:10 am

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Uh, yeah, he would. If Elli got lynched there, it'd be game over for all intents and purposes. He can't kill you without giving himself away and and he can't kill anyone else without you confirming people.
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Post Post #790 (isolation #131) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:15 am

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In post 789, VitaminR wrote:I don't really think he would hold out against an Elli lynch like that.

Read #788 again.
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Post Post #793 (isolation #132) » Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:58 am

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In post 791, Ellibereth wrote:ummmmmmmmwhy was quil town again?

He just is.
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Post Post #799 (isolation #133) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 2:27 am

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Huzzah!
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Post Post #801 (isolation #134) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 2:34 am

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Nope!
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Post Post #803 (isolation #135) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 3:10 am

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4 - 2 - 3 - 1

4 wins mostly because I think it's a reasonable move for pretty much any scum team. 2 should be "mykscum and his team tried to kill VitR".

Shooting at you is not a smart move regardless of the scum team and myko is either scum or mislynchable.
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Post Post #806 (isolation #136) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 3:46 am

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In post 804, Hoopla wrote:Why isn't shooting at me a smart move from any scumteam's perspective?

Because you're the obvious protect for myko?
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Post Post #809 (isolation #137) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 4:25 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Probably should've responded to that Hooplaquote.
In post 754, Hoopla wrote:If he was scum, why would he claim a protect on Quilford? Presumably, he'd know he'd be claiming a result that would likely not be the reason for the no kill, thus the town would default to my result and Vitamin would have a good chance of being lynched. If myko was scum with Vitamin, he should claim a protect on me to not narrow down why the kill failed.

Quilfordkill is entirely plausible. Furthermore, if he claims a protect on you, town's almost certainly going to assume you're town. He also claimed his nightkill result before you did, so he probably didn't know the full implications of the claim himself (this is especially true if scum chose to no-kill).
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Post Post #813 (isolation #138) » Sun Oct 02, 2011 4:55 am

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In post 810, killerjester wrote:Quilfordkill isn't really plausible if myk is scum.

All the more reason for mykscum to suggest that might've happened.

killerjester wrote:And if he isn't scum then we come back to the train of thought where a scumteam without myk probably would've tried to kill a PR.

A train of thought I don't agree with.
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Post Post #834 (isolation #139) » Mon Oct 03, 2011 10:31 am

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In post 833, Ellibereth wrote:but I want to understand why people are paranoid on Hoops with the claim out there.

It's Hoopls.
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Post Post #837 (isolation #140) » Mon Oct 03, 2011 10:48 am

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In post 835, Ellibereth wrote:My impression is that she gambits and numbers but doesn't really like taking excessive risks
which this probably is.

Paranoia needn't be justified. The only one voting for Hoopls is mykscum over there.
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Post Post #841 (isolation #141) » Mon Oct 03, 2011 11:52 am

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In post 839, Hoopla wrote:As scum yesterday, I must have thought there was a HIGH chance of a JK existing - and if there was one and I was lynched, it's basically game over.

Only if there's also a doc, really. With the right partner it's not quite that crazy a gamble - if there's no jailkeeper, instant town cred + lack of you dying is explained by the doctor, if there's no doctor, jailkeeper gets outed and town can't finagle an extra lynch.
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Post Post #871 (isolation #142) » Sat Oct 08, 2011 12:55 am

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Let's see: lynching claimed doc first gives us 3 lynches + 1 confirmed by jailkeeper to work with.
Letting him live still gives us 3 lynches + 1 confirmed by jailkeeper (scum can intentionally no-kill on one of the nights because we're at odds currently), but scum is limited in terms of who it shoots?.

Eh, 4 effective lynches is enough.
Vote: mykonian


Tell us whom you're roleblocking if myko flips town, Hoopls.
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Post Post #874 (isolation #143) » Sat Oct 08, 2011 5:51 am

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What I had in mind was actually that the scum'd kill Quilford next Night and then intentionally no-kill to refrain from getting town another innocent.

I did make a mistake - mislynching at 4p doesn't lose the town the game with a jailkeeper around, which gives the not lynching myko plan an extra effective lynch.

Unvote


The scum should surrender, I think. We can kill or check everyone but Hoopls and Quilford.
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Post Post #876 (isolation #144) » Sat Oct 08, 2011 7:26 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Scum targetting myk isn't that much of a stretch.

killerjester wrote:Also Hoopla+CES, I remember that #750-752 really flew over my head. Can you explain that for me again?

Having a doc and a jailkeeper alive versus 1 scum basically allows you to confirm 2 extra players in addition to the lynches. So scum would really want to avoid a scum lynch D2 with both power roles alive. A scum group of Elli-VitR, aware of this and afraid of Hoopls jailkeeping Elli, probably would've sent their most townie-looking member to make the kill - VitR.

On that note, I wouldn't've expected scum to bus yesterday, so
Vote: DDD
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Post Post #879 (isolation #145) » Sun Oct 09, 2011 12:27 am

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In post 877, Hoopla wrote:CES, what do you think about DDD being on the failed Elli lynch on D2?

Dammit.

MYK, SURRENDER. NO ONE WILL HOLD IT AGAINST YOU, I SWEAR.


(That said, if we have to assume scum misplayed things, it makes more sense for them to have misplayed it early and DDD was certainly on the counterwagon Yesterday.)

(Killerjester makes some amount of sense too.)
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Post Post #886 (isolation #146) » Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:50 pm

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In post 885, mykonian wrote:And CES isn't funny anymore. If this had been a closed game I'd worry about a lyncher. First he proposes a doc lynch with one scum and a roleblocking agent (fakeclaimed or not), and now he makes sure people are paranoid about me.

It's true. You caught me. I have to lynch all the scum to win.
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Post Post #891 (isolation #147) » Mon Oct 10, 2011 11:47 pm

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The latter.
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Post Post #901 (isolation #148) » Tue Oct 11, 2011 11:51 pm

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In post 900, killerjester wrote:CES only seems concerned with getting a lynch through today while VitR appears to be reading through the entire game looking for the last partner.

What you're seeing is that I really believe myk is the final scumbag.
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Post Post #903 (isolation #149) » Tue Oct 11, 2011 11:58 pm

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Uh, yeah, he is.
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Post Post #906 (isolation #150) » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:02 am

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In post 905, mykonian wrote:You don't have to post it in thread. I'll protect you, which is one of the two reasons why CES was totally wrong in trying to get me lynched.

I just made one silly mistake.
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Post Post #909 (isolation #151) » Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:58 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 907, mykonian wrote:
In post 906, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
In post 905, mykonian wrote:You don't have to post it in thread. I'll protect you, which is one of the two reasons why CES was totally wrong in trying to get me lynched.

I just made one silly mistake.


No, it's a mistake you are making pretty much the whole game, since I think you started day 1 or day 2 to focus quite a bit on me. I mean, only the fact that the entire town has to tell you you are silly makes that you aren't voting me right now.

No. I realized what mistake I was making on my own - I failed to note that town can survive a mislynch at 4p as long as the jailkeeper's still alive.

myko wrote:Regardless of that, all you are thinking about is how to get me lynched at some point.

Well, it is the point of the game, so...
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Post Post #922 (isolation #152) » Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:06 am

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Time for a ==========[].
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Post Post #935 (isolation #153) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:00 am

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killerjester?
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Post Post #937 (isolation #154) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:13 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Probably should've realized it wasn't him given that you were asking us to guess.

VitaminR?
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Post Post #941 (isolation #155) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:17 am

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Quilford?

He makes some sense as a nightkill target too though.
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Post Post #943 (isolation #156) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:24 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Well, you can just jail him again next Night. Either confirm him or if he's scum, we get an extra lynch (which, obviously, we can use on him).

Vote: killerjester
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Post Post #949 (isolation #157) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 4:54 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

No-kill is also entirely feasible last Night. I mean, seriously, who do you kill there as scum?
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Post Post #952 (isolation #158) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:09 am

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Trust me, no-killing is feasible.
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Post Post #954 (isolation #159) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:20 am

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You say that like myk is not obvscum?
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Post Post #957 (isolation #160) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:31 am

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Yeah, but him being obvscum plays a rather significant role in terms of who'd get lynched in a 3p endgame with myk.
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Post Post #961 (isolation #161) » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:05 am

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In post 959, mykonian wrote:Just take a guess why.

It's because I'm onto you.
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Post Post #973 (isolation #162) » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:39 am

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Well, we're not lynching myko today due to set-up logic, so.
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Post Post #975 (isolation #163) » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:42 am

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No.

We don't lynch obvtown.
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Post Post #977 (isolation #164) » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:50 am

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Yeah, but he's not.
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Post Post #979 (isolation #165) » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:57 am

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On page 10? Yeah, I wouldn't rule that out at all.
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Post Post #992 (isolation #166) » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:54 am

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Vote: myko


Finally we can end this.
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Post Post #995 (isolation #167) » Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:27 am

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What else is he going to do, Vit? Survive another 3 effective lynches?

It's a pretty logical move for mykscum, especially considering we'd finally get to lynch him Today.
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Post Post #997 (isolation #168) » Sun Oct 23, 2011 12:21 pm

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Hoopla jailkeeping mykonian would be a really
really
terrible move. There's very little incentive for scum to kill (except for Hooplascum and as this scenario shows mykscum), so taking a potshot at Hoopla has very little opportunity cost. It's basically giving the game away in case of non-mykscum (and pointless in case of mykscum).
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #169) » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:12 pm

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It's a nice little move by myk, *shrug*.
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Post Post #1002 (isolation #170) » Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:56 pm

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Just vote for myk?

He was obvscum coming in to this Day. Him shooting Hoopls shouldn't magically absolve him of anything!
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #171) » Mon Oct 24, 2011 2:41 am

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I'm pretty sure I was late on the wagon for plenty of early wagons. And I don't even get what point you're trying to make.

If you want to see really quickly that it's myk, just consider these points:
1) he refused to hammer Elli at deadline (and this makes perfect sense coming from mykclaimeddoctorscum)
2) he killed Hoopls overnight!

Note: my points actually make sense
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Post Post #1009 (isolation #172) » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:10 pm

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^Can't come up with a halfway decent explanation for why Hoopls would risk the game blocking myk either.
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Post Post #1011 (isolation #173) » Wed Oct 26, 2011 2:05 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

All you have to do is write:

Code: Select all

[b]Vote: mykonian[/b]
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Post Post #1014 (isolation #174) » Wed Oct 26, 2011 11:09 am

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Myko is so obviously playing the "this is all too crazy" card instead of trying to make sense of it like a townie would.
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Post Post #1020 (isolation #175) » Thu Oct 27, 2011 1:38 am

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I agree with the first sentence.

"CES has learned that he gets away with a point that is slightly odd "because he believes in it"." doesn't describe my scum play.

As for the rest, well, I do that as town too.
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #176) » Thu Oct 27, 2011 5:24 am

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In post 1021, VitaminR wrote:So, I no longer trust any ability I might have to read CES.

Trust your ability to read myko?

I don't particularly mind no lynch (as long as you lynch myk if I die) although it seems a little pointless.
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Post Post #1025 (isolation #177) » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:29 am

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Gngnh

He's the only one that makes sense as Elli's partner.

The Hooplskill either means mykscum made a perfectly valid play (if not the most obvious) or that Hoopls made the worst possible move she could make.
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Post Post #1026 (isolation #178) » Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:39 am

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Oh hey, here's a valid point:

if I were scum with Elli, wouldn't I have shot myko N2? That way I'd get to bus Elli and avoid the whole "jailkeeper confirms a bunch of players" stuff. That's a pretty watertight point actually given that Elli and I were the leading wagons at deadline - an Elli-CES scum team really can't afford to let the PRs stick around.
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #179) » Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:38 pm

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Okay, I'm going to go in-depth on this myko killing Hoopla doohickey because I think we can do better.

When you're new to the mafia and you're faced with some ridiculous story, your initial impulse is likely to disbelieve it, thinking that "It's a lie" is a much simpler explanation. One quickly finds that while occasionally appropriate (miller day-gunsmith claims spring to mind), generally quite the opposite is true because while the story might be implausible, the notion that it's scum spinning such a ridiculous yarn is
even more
implausible. The original line of reasoning is basically a misapplication of Occam's Razor (you could sell the improved line of reasoning as a correct application of Occam's Razor but I don't think that's necessarily an useful way of looking at it.)

Once you understand why we tend to consider ridiculousness a town tell, we can re-evaluate this situation to see if it works here and it doesn't for two reasons:

1) Smart scum get this at some level and know to take advantage of it (e.g. IC unclaiming Vengeful in Goofbash, Mina claiming bodyguard that correctly predicted the kill but whose action was prevented somehow.) Given ample time to think about it, I certainly don't put this move past myko. Look at #1008 and #1012 - he's not trying to make sense of what happened (I can come up with a theory for why Hoopls would make that move that has an air of plausibility about it, certainly myko can too), what's he's doing is playing up the ridiculousness angle instead.

2) What might appear ridiculous from our town perspective might look far more reasonable from a scum perspective (e.g. Fenchurch faking not knowing who Marius was almost certainly influenced by me pointing out that kiwi was Marius overnight). Let's look at how fucked mykscum was going into Night - this Day we could finally lynch him just fine without sacrificing any lynches; he couldn't afford to kill me to take some heat off of him; no one else made sense as Elli's partner; Quilford, Hoopla and VitR all looked miles more town than him AND he had to survive THREE effective lynches. Additionally, we were being somewhat cavalier (in part because some of us really believed it was myko!) with our lynches (2 lynches pages 35-40), so odds are he would've been lynched without a whole lot of hesitation on our parts. Killing Hoopls solves all of those problems. Now all he has to is push the one remaining plausible mislynch and he wins. Sure, it should incriminate him something fierce, but we can all see how that turned out (even if he didn't predict this outcome, it's totally worth a shot). However ridiculous the notion of shooting the jailkeeper you're supposed to be protecting might be at first glance, it is secretly
an entirely reasonable move for mykscum to make.
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Post Post #1029 (isolation #180) » Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:39 pm

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 1027, Quilford wrote:
if I were scum with Elli, wouldn't I have shot myko N2? That way I'd get to bus Elli and avoid the whole "jailkeeper confirms a bunch of players" stuff. That's a pretty watertight point actually given that Elli and I were the leading wagons at deadline - an Elli-CES scum team really can't afford to let the PRs stick around.

Do you think myko was under suspicion going into N2? Explain your answer.[/quote]
He was, but we kept him alive due to his doc claim and that was entirely predictable.
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Post Post #1036 (isolation #181) » Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:36 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

mykonian wrote:Just see how he can minutely use anything said or done in his favor.

Nonsense. I've mostly focussed on you killing Hoopls, your subsequent response and your failure to hammer myko.

mykonian wrote:But CES has an explanation for everything. He's scum making up stories how it all makes sense that I'm the mafia.

The fact that what I'm saying makes sense is not a point against me.

In post 1034, Quilford wrote:plus this game seems to lean more to his scum meta than town

I have no idea what you're talking about. How?
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Post Post #1043 (isolation #182) » Tue Nov 01, 2011 2:36 am

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Don't aaaargh me. My play in Marius and Sulla is nothing like my play here either (I was faking a better town me).
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Post Post #1047 (isolation #183) » Wed Nov 02, 2011 3:47 pm

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Oh for fuck's sake, we're not lynching Quilford or you.
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Post Post #1049 (isolation #184) » Wed Nov 02, 2011 11:59 pm

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Do it.
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #185) » Sat Nov 05, 2011 1:26 am

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Come on.
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Post Post #1062 (isolation #186) » Wed Nov 09, 2011 12:19 pm

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Note how's not blaming Hoopls.
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Post Post #1063 (isolation #187) » Wed Nov 09, 2011 12:20 pm

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who*
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Post Post #1066 (isolation #188) » Wed Nov 09, 2011 3:30 pm

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Vote for myko.
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Post Post #1070 (isolation #189) » Thu Nov 10, 2011 2:49 am

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....

It's not Vit, Quilford. I don't even know what you're trying to accomplish because Vitscum could just no-kill. This is pointless.
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Post Post #1071 (isolation #190) » Thu Nov 10, 2011 2:54 am

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Seriously, this game should've ended ages ago.
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Post Post #1074 (isolation #191) » Sun Nov 13, 2011 6:37 am

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Vote: myk
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Post Post #1079 (isolation #192) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:14 am

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This is getting kind of embarrassing, honestly.
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Post Post #1083 (isolation #193) » Thu Nov 17, 2011 4:28 pm

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Self-voting might speed things up.
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Post Post #1100 (isolation #194) » Sun Nov 20, 2011 2:12 pm

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I'm just glad this game's over.
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