Open 316 - Hard Boiled (Day Two)

[Coventry]

Hi, everyone. I'll post some first thoughts soonish. I promise to try to keep them succinct.

[Coventry]

Hello again, everyone. This was quite an interesting read.

I’m a little nonplussed at the moment because when I replace into a game it has always been my habit to ask almost everyone a lot of questions about their various actions to that point. I’m afraid though that at this juncture in this game that might prove more of a distraction than a help. I would still like to ask those questions if it’s all right with everyone, but I’ll wait until the mechanics are settled and everyone is placed in their pools before I do.

I’ll limit this to some questions and concerns that I have about those mechanics. It will still likely become a wall, but if it threatens to get too long I will break this up into multiple posts.

First. About the two pools.

Hi, Oversoul. I wouldn’t speculate anymore on who we might prefer go into the pool. If someone is called out to jump into the lynch pool and refuses and they are scum, well that’s fine. But if they refuse and they aren’t scum….

I don’t like the notion of 6 people in the vig pool and 2 in the lynch pool. Yes, having six people in the vig pool gives the vig more cover. But it’s a two-edged sword, and it also makes it more likely that the vig misses.

With this mechanism in place we are very dependent on the Vig in this game. And that leads me to something I found terribly disturbing in my read-through.

As I've said several times, I'm not going to waste my life making cases until the lynchpool is decided. I will and have stated my reads before then, but convincing everyone else of their validity is a futile gesture at this juncture.

This really bothers me because why should this matter? If you think you've found scum in the vig pool shouldn’t you also pursue your case there? Because the vig isn’t going to operate in a vacuum. Yes, the Vig will make the final decision on whom the trigger will be pulled. But shouldn't we all be working on identifying scum in the vig pool as well?

Lastly, it seems foolish to me to pursue the counter claiming scum at this point. We have a scum in hand here, whoever it is. And since the bad guys seem to have little choice but to take their shots at these power roles our odds of taking out the right claimant go up with each passing day. And not just because there will be fewer claimants. Because we'll have additional time to observe them.

Anyway, those are my thoughts to this point on the set-up.

[Coventry]

I am curious.

At this point, if we were to follow zMuffinMan’s plan, we would in effect be creating a new pool. This pool is town confirmed not by power role claim but by demonstrated willingness to die in service to the town.

He would like us to maintain this pool of non-power-role claiming but “proven” to be town while diminishing the vig pool exclusively. Which would mean, by my way of thinking, 2 dead from the vig pool by the end of the night and, even if this experiment wasn’t repeated, so long as the vig survived the first night, one more dead the second.

And understand that this experiment cannot safely be repeated. It is essential to lynch someone from the “Confirmed by willingness to Sacrifice themselves” pool , at least for everyone in town who is not Hoopla, Andrew and zMuffin. However town your read is on any or all of these three, to not do so would be to absolutely put your faith in a plan conceived by Hoopla and modified by zMuffin in a way that would make sure Hoopla remained safe from lynch while he remained safe by virtue of having claimed a power role. The original plan is stripped of its entire original utility, because there are no longer two ever-drying pools but instead one rapidly drained pool (where, incidentally, the town’s most powerful power role is located) and one artificially protected one.

It is changed from what Hoopla described as a suboptimal plan for scum to use into an optimal plan, because with zMuffin’s design change it:

1. Identifies three out of four power roles.
2. Creates a pool where a bad guy or two could safely hide from both lynch and vig through day one.
3. Shields another bad guy through at least the first day by virtue of a power claim.

Upon replacing, when I first read the rather intense discussion between Hoopla, zMuffin and a couple of others about the shape this plan would take I found myself hoping that Hoopla would have a clean claim for a power role. When she did not I was happy she volunteered for the lynch pool, because that guaranteed at least the alignment of her plan, especially with the lynch pool containing only two members. Now, if we follow zMuffin's lead, the lynch pool will be the safest place to be.

So the real question is do we have enough faith that zMuffin, Hoopla and Andrew are town that we're willing to bet the fate of the town on it, when the possible prize is still a dead townsperson, and a somewhat smaller vig pool.

Either the plan is good as it stands, and it rather seems to me that it is (I would have preferred a three person lynch pool to begin with, because then I think it would have been almost certain to lure a bad guy, unlike zMuffin’s current plan, which will definitely result in a town death). Because this is bad enough reasoning and obviously bad enough reasoning to be almost nonsensical:

Because it keeps two nigh conf-town alive while killing off someone who may be gambiting scum volunteering themselves because they think I'm not serious and it'll make them seem like town sacrificing themselves for the cause.

The chance for that was in the initial pool, and not now. This proposal just doesn’t seem to pass the sniff test.

[Coventry]

Zmuffin, I beg to differ with you on this. You are not just asking us whether we believe it likely that Hoopla and Andrew are town.

You are asking us to trust that you, Andrew and Hoopla are town.

And you are asking us not just to go so far with that feeling as to follow Hoopla's plan. You are asking us to disregard that plan, as it was agreed to by the town, to accept your modification. And based on that modification you are potentially using one of the pools to shelter scum instead of reveal them. And you're extremely insistent about this modification, in spite of the fact that you had already agreed to the original plan.

Now you're actually trying to bully the specific people you would like to step forward into the pool, which seems extremely anti-town at the very least. Because once again, if you happen to have called out the three scum (of the two who could, at the most, be in the pool) no harm, no foul, but if you begin to put pressure on town who refuse to march into your lordship's death puddle you may very well be aiming the scum's pistol for them.

And do I believe that you and Hoopla planned this before the game started? I believe there is that possibility. Because you wouldn't need every small detail to play out the way it has, and of course, between you and Hoopla you fairly well controlled what modifications were allowed. All you really needed was a general plan that led to two pools which were to be drained simultaneously and then one of you to try to change those terms once the pools had been settled.

In your last post you actually said that a plan that was designed to give scum nowhere to hide is the same as a plan that gives scum a place to hide from both a lynch and the vig. You actually called it the same plan.

You then pretended or were confused into not understanding that it is you who have suggested we create a pool of protection. Or that as it currently stands we will have both one scum protected from lynch or vig on day one due to a counter claim and that the pool of protection you are trying to create would create a safe zone for possibly one or two more scum. Even odder, you acted as though you would have never had any opportunity to collaborate on a plan.

And you see, all there has to be is a possibility of that plan being in place to make this a really bad idea. Because the plan as it now exists should work just fine. And your desperate insistence that it be changed now is extremely unsettling.

[Coventry]

Oh my.

First let me state these immutable facts. And no matter how loud Zmuffin shouts, they are facts:

Hoopla created what she claimed she believed was an optimal plan. It depended on three of the four power roles claiming and the creation of two pools, one from which people would be lynched and a second in which the town vig would hide and kill.

The town agreed to this.

After short-circuiting nearly all scumhunting throughout the first day when this plan was finally set in motion, before it could be tested in any real way, zMuffin called out for the plan to be changed.

That change completely eliminated the notion of having two pools which would be drained and instead advocated the both the lynch target and the vig target would be taken from the vig pool.

zMuffin has tried to tell us repeatedly that this is the same plan. It is not.

zMuffin has then pressured one player after another in the vig pool (where our vig is hiding). Because of doing this and…

…not following Hoopla’s plan as it was approved by the rest of the town…

…Neil has claimed himself as vig. If he is vig the vig dies tonight.

…Quilford has outed himself as vt by calling for counter-claims so even if Neil is not the vig we have reduced the possible targets for scum by one.

And now Hoopla and zMuffin are planning another lynch from the vig pool. In fact, the plan, according to Hoopla, is done now.

After all, we’ve basically short-circuited scum hunting for the entire first day, we’ve revealed outright three of our power roles.

After all, Neil claimed vig.

Best yet, Hoopla already has a plan for sorting out the power roles tomorrow. I wonder how that will go?

Bad scum hide. Good scum set themselves up as the voice of authority for the town and identify and kill their targets one by one. As Oversoul said, Hoopla is the numbers queen and she certainly has a lot of pretty awards. I have to think she did something to earn them.

And there is this, too: read back over my posts and zMuffin’s responses. I argued that by not following Hoopla’s we were endangering it. zMuffin continued on his quest to arbitrarily change this meticulously thought out plan at the last moment. The results of his doing so have basically destroyed the plan.

We can't vote for zMuffin today because he has claimed a power role, and it doesn't matter how mean he might at this point that would be foolish.
But I would like each of you to ask yourself how you think he would have reacted, as town, if you had suggested, just when the claiming dust had settled, that we throw out the plan and instead create a wading pool for safety and a shark pool for clearing.

Hoopla said the plan is done now and we should all vote for who we think is the most scummy.

And then she voted for me. For the supremely scummy act of defending her plan.

This isn’t something I’m claiming. You can read it for yourself.

The lynch that gives the town the most information tonight is Hoopla. There isn’t even any question about this.

Vote: Hoopla

[Coventry]

All right, xMuffin, you have made me curious.

Why am I the most likely scum in the vig pool? Because it would seem to me that I am the most likely scum in the vig pool because...

...I disagreed with you. Or perhaps my worst crime was being right. This game has become terrily topsy-turvy, so perhaps wanring someone of the possible consequences of their strangely anti-town behavior only to have those consequences come to pass is now considered a scum-tell.

But paranoia is fear without reason. And your behavior over the last few days has provided plenty of reason.

Anyway, if you offer a case against me I will certainly answer.

[Coventry]

The problem with lynching Andrew is that it gives us very little information and for exactly the reasons you outlined earlier, Oversoul, I am very uncertain he is a bad guy. From my first read I was almost sure Little Grey/Silver and Amrun were scum, with Neil close behind, because I didn't think he was reacting to pressure the same way he had in our last game with him (I know, he eventually did). Given how the day has developed now, though, I can't imagine us going forward in any useful fashion without dealing with the 800 pound gorilla that is zMuffin's strangely bullying and seemingly scummily opportunistic play.

Just lynching someone to clear the room is still preferable to no-lynch but the reason for the "easy lynches", Hoopla's plan, is now mangled beyond recognition and I believe strongly that you lynch from information and to get information. It is just not clear to me how lynching Andrew is from the first or would offer much of the later.

As always, if anyone can explain to me how I'm wrong I'll certainly reconsider.

[Coventry]

Oversoul,

It's always tough to defend for another person's actions. If you'd like to give me an opportunity with particular actions of theirs, well you know how I read threads, I'll give it a shot, but they would only be guesses. And if you feel the town gets better information with a dead me than a dead anyone else you know what way you have to vote. At the moment you're my towniest townie in the whole game, so I suspect your motives will be pure.

Thanks for being so nice.

[Coventry]

Oversoul,

On the first count I would counter a bit. When told it was important Evil read the plan and commented on it in a way that suggests he had at least something of a grasp of it in fairly short order. Actually, looking at Evil in ios for the first time (I didn’t before because well, he is me) almost suspiciously short time, but perhaps he’s a faster reader than I am.

He certainly had a high noise to content ratio, though, and his post in thread #577, where he forgot a rather important point of the mechanics for the plan is rather terrible, but I would point out that he was far from alone in making that sort of slip. And yes, the list of suspicions he recycled in with his “not pr” was a warmed over hash, but that is not that unusual with replacements, especially ones who are less than fully engaged, and his subsequent withdrawal from Mafia in general would support that view.
I told you, mostly guesswork, but I’d ask you to take a last look at his posts before you decide.

Thanks either way.

[Coventry]

Neil, unless or until you're counterclaimed you don't need to call a target. Listen to whatever advice you receive and keep your own council. Please, though, do listen to the advice you receive.

It seems to me highly unlikely that you will survive the night, though it is possible scum will take a shot in the other direction. The reason I think it unlikely is because of the three possible choices among the other declared power roles one would result in a no-kill for scum and even the other two would offer only a 50/50 shot of getting the right person.

Thanks to the events of the last few hours there is no guesswork concerning you. Listen to everyone and please make a wise decision.

My choices would be Hoopla and Amrun, in that order.

At any rate, what people think of you tomorrow should be the least of your worries.

[Coventry]

I’m going to agree with zMuffinMan at this point. We can’t afford a no-lynch. I think Hoopla is the best candidate for these reasons:

• 1. Hoopla introduced one of the most anti-town “guaranteed town win” plans ever on day one. While the plan itself makes a certain amount of sense to me, it proposed to eliminate scumhunting until day two or even later. This was CERTAIN to create problems for town, since most of us play Mafia in order to scumhunt. As a result, lack of interest has been the hallmark of this game up til now. Town has been given no reason to participate and with the timely addition of zMuffin’s contributions, has been berated, insulted, and ignored when they did try to post anything. I find it amusing that at this point zMuffin is complaining about lurkers, since it seems to me his abusive and petulant tirades have more or less guaranteed that no one wants to post and be subjected to them. “Just do what I want!” does not constitute an actual argument and piling insult on top of it does not make it one.
  
  2. We can’t lynch zMuffin. He’s a claimed power role. The fact that he has seized on every single anti-town element of Hoopla’s plan and magnified it so that it had the worst possible effect should be remembered Day 2, but can’t have any relevance now. If Hoopla is town, then I’m almost certainly wrong about zMuffin being the scum in the claimed PR pool. If Hoopla is scum, then I think zMuffin is too.
  
  3. zMuffin buddies Hoopla to the extent that he seems perfectly comfortable altering her plan and she doesn’t object even though she had a foolproof plan in the first place. Was zMuffin in on the plan from the start? Why would Hoopla allow such sweeping changes to her plan if they weren’t part of the plan to start with? What was the point of the test, if not to test her plan? Certainly it wasn’t to make the game any more fun and interesting to the players, a situation that usually benefits town.
  
  4. Hoopla is a lurker. She’s been letting zMuffin fight her battles for her, which is fair enough if she’s scum because she’s in a vulnerable position. With one scum in the claimed PR pool and temporarily safe, it might have made sense to be the first volunteer. This is especially true if this was Hoopla’s scum plan and not her town plan, since zMuffin would know that he should defend her. The problem I have with this theory is that the third partner has been remarkably silent and has not joined zMuffin’s quest to lynch “Anyone but Hoopla” nor defended Hoopla; maybe that is for safety. I just don't know.
  
  5. zMuffin switches his suspicions instantly and tells us to trust him, just trust him no matter who he’s going after. He was nasty to people who were trying to scumhunt early, and now is complaining that no one has tried to do so since that. If you look at the list of people he has found suspicious, it exactly corresponds with the people who haven’t gone along silently with his amazing gut reads. Questioning zMuffin is the biggest scumtell of all, apparently, and disagreeing with him is a sure route to the gallows. The argument about whether scum would be so aggressive and unpleasant is WIFOM in my opinion. If I think they won’t, then of course they will. Hoopla is even worse. She doesn’t have to justify her vote at all, since she’s cleared by zMuffin in advance because she jumped on the lynch pool instantly… almost as if it were planned.

TL:DR version:

• 1. Hoopla’s plan hurt town more than it helped.
  
  2. zMuffin can’t be lynched today.
  
  3. Hoopla eagerly agreed to zMuffin’s changes to her supposedly guaranteed plan.
  
  4. zMuffin is buddying Hoopla like both their lives depend on it.
  
  5. zMuffin swings his suspicions to anyone who questions his actions or alterations to the “foolproof surefire plan” he didn’t even create but that he feels very free to change.

That said, I’m fine with being lynched today. It’s not the best play in my opinion but it’s still better than a no-lynch since it will give weight to what I’ve said here. Don’t lynch Andrew; his lynch gains us no information at all. Put it between me and Hoopla and lynch the one you think gains us the most information or, if you think one of us is scum, lynch that way.

[Coventry]

If your plan was optimal, Hoopla, why did you accept every single change made by zMuffin to the plan without question or protest? And if you didn't feel it was a substitute for scumhunting, why didn't you speak up when zMuffin used your plan as a reason to beat down anyone who didn't just do what he said as part of "your" plan?

You've been lurky yourself. Why wouldn't you take ownership of your own plan and work for its success, rather than depending on someone else to do all the work for you? Unless THAT was the plan all along?

[Coventry]

I agree that it will be easier when we get to Day 2.

I really don't like that you proposed a plan that is "not dependent on the town's skill", thus taking away a primary reason for the town to care, and then decided you didn't care either. In your scenario, who's supposed to care?

To be fair, I can't be certain whether this is Hoopla-scum trying to make the game less enjoyable for everyone and thus depress the town's interest in catching scum by telling them repeatedly there's no point in trying to do so because the plan is "not dependent on the town's skill", or Hoopla-town just not having a clue about why people play Mafia and why people might not be very invested in a game where they're told their skill flatly doesn't matter.

Either way, it's not a good thing.

[Coventry]

I've answered this already; I think Amrun is the most likely scum in the vig pool, assuming Andrew is town. If Andrew is scum I think the scumteam is Andrew-you-Hoopla. If MrBump modconfirmed Hoopla as town, I'd have to reconsider whether you are the scum in the PR pool. I guess I'd have to look at Quilford again as well.

Speaking of which, when did Neil become one of your town reads to you as opposed to your highest suspicion? Was it the instant he claimed vig? Or was it when he jumped on the wagon you were pushing after that?

What was the point of the vig pool the way that you were using it? Was part of the point of the vig pool to allow the vig to hide in it and choose targets from it? If that was the case, was it a good idea to pressure members of the vig pool in retrospect? Do you think your actions improved Hoopla's plan, as she seems to suggest?

As I said, I am okay with being lynched but I would like these questions answered either way.