Open 275 - Quack Multiball pt. 2 (Game Over Already?)

[GreyICE]

Vote: PopularTajo

I CAN BANDWAGONZ TWO

[GreyICE]

I UNNO

I NEVER GET DOUBLE VOTER OR DAY VIG

I'M MAD AT THE PERSON WHO GOT DAY VIG HERE

[GreyICE]

Guys. I've already declared we are out of RVS. Now, you get to pick to BW D_J, or Lane.

This is easy stuff.

Vote: Hiraki

CHOICES

[GreyICE]

God is Lane like Andrew94's twin brother? The resemblances are striking and ridiculous.

Okay, so, idiot town. SharkFinn? Dunno yet. Hiraki? Meh, who can tell when he's under attacks from idiots and people who say their votes are for pressure?

Tajo = cheeky scum
Tragedy = always scummy
DJ = Lurking.
Nocmen = Town

Eh, wait. Tragedy has pointed at two different people, and left the RVS vote on Bella.

Vote: Tragedy

I smell scum trying to hard.

[GreyICE]

BAH TOO MUCH LURKING

UNVOTE

VOTE: TAJO

SCUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmm

[GreyICE]

NOT RVS

ONE POST

READ SCUM

BAH

HE'S CHEEKY THOUGH I'LL GIVE HIM THAT.

[GreyICE]

Okay, we are low on action.

Fuck this. I am going to shut the door on RVS. Setup speculation time! I have a modest proposal.

Last game, I noticed a very interesting thing. I got killed by a quack. DDD, the scum who would have won the game had it not been called due to cheating (and he WOULD HAVE) claimed to protect me day 1, and then said he didn't day 2 because he "figured everyone would be on me night 2."

What if we nominate around 35-50% of the people claim their night actions in the thread before the end of day? This will give us a VERY good guide to tracking down quacks and fake actions (and frankly, quacks killed as many people as scum last game).

Since both scumteams have no idea how many scum will be in those, they have no idea what they're navigating around. Fakeclaims will be MUCH easier to catch.

DISCUSS.

[GreyICE]

Since both scumteams have no idea how many scum will be in those, they have no idea what they're navigating around.

Fakeclaims will be MUCH easier to catch.

Those = How many people targeting 1 person or something?
If you mean by how many scum there are, you do know it's an Open game.

No, I mean we choose 4-6 people at semi random. And they say "I'm going to doctor X"

Then the rest claim tomorrow.

This greatly increases the chances that around day 2-3 we'll have claimed impossible night actions.

[GreyICE]

Okay, we decide we wanna lynch, I dunno, Smashbro the replaceouter today. So we look at the player list and go:

GreyICE
SharkFinn
Bella
Nocmen
DJ

TheWayItEnds
PopularTajo
Tragedy
Lane
Dry-Fit
Hiraki

Then we choose some way to select 5 of the names. I'll just use the first 5.

GI: Docs Hiraki
SF:Doc: Tragedy
Bella: Doc: Nocmen
Nocmen: Doc: Bella
DJ: Doc TWIE

Then the other 6 do as they choose. Pluses:
1) Odd doctoring choices get questioned
2) Harder to fakeclaim after seeing the night results
3) At some point it's very likely someone will have an impossible action from earlier in the game (something that requires them to be a quack, but we've found two quacks, etc.)

[GreyICE]

no. just no. it has potential to hand scum loads of information.

Interesting. Such as?

[GreyICE]

... The player list is 33% scum, Don.
... It's only 25% if what you're thinking is "there's three other scum besides me."

Vote: Don Johnson

Yeah. So moving on with the confirmed scum outed, who else wants to comment.

[GreyICE]

Now quacks are an interesting issue. Really, they're worse for us than a VT. A VT can't kill its targets, and until we find both quacks, we can't be sure that our doctor protects are working.

Now, if someone targets a NK, they can be quack. Here's my proposal. Wait for a situation where you have people who target the NK. Then separate them into a "Quack" list. As soon as we have two people in the quack list and we're in no danger of hitting LyLo, we have the two quacks target each other.

If both die, this is a game full of doctors with a few night kills floating around.

If neither dies, one or both is scum, and we can start by lynching the scummiest. If we hit quack, we lynch the other, if we hit scum, our quack list drops back to one player.

This preserves the quack votes, and since night actions are not mandatory, essentially turns them into VTs.

[GreyICE]

Ah.

Quacks are the town vigs who vig town alone.

Last game had two quack kills. And two scum kills.

And one quack died night one. They are a power role that needs to be kept on a VERY SHORT LEASH.

Don... you're scum.

[GreyICE]

I want someone who is not me, and who no one suspects is partnered with me to choose how to separate the lists.

The next person to post after this posts a list of four names (EXCEPT DJ). The post after that should be a pick of one of them. The person picked will choose how to separate the lists.

[GreyICE]

No one adds themselves to the list, no one chooses themself, to be clear.

[GreyICE]

ITT: DJ learns I'm male

[GreyICE]

As for how the plan screws with scum, here are their choices:

1) Fire into a claimed doctor protect. Results:
A) Doctor was a doctor. Wasted NK
B) Doctor was a quack. Wasted NK
C) Doctor was scum. NK works, but we get a scum lynch anyway.

2) Fire into an 'unprotected townie.'
A) At least 2, and up to 6 doctors may choose to protect 'unprotected townies.' Same problems as above
B) Claimed protects are probably going to be on less scummy town members. You're firing into possible mislynches
C) Since they're scummy, you might hit scum anyway.

If you claim a target and then NK that target, you just claimed quack, which is kinda bad when you do the cross-quacking. Or three quacks turn up and you do a circle quack. Etc.

It locks the scum into fakeclaims that can get them dead. The last mechanics heavy game I was in reached 4:3:1, and I solved it completely because two people claimed impossible night actions, and we lynched scum three days straight. Impossible action claims are VERY USEFUL

[GreyICE]

DEMON HYBRID

This game is much less fucking hysterical but much better than round 1.

[GreyICE]

If you haven't read part 1, btw, you owe yourself the service. It's rather lowbrow comedy, but it's comedy gold all the same.

[GreyICE]

QUACK CANNOT KILL SCUM

THIS IS IMPORTANT

[GreyICE]

D_J, you never know when 1-4 random scums are screwed over. [

Lol, imagine if 2 Scums were killed by Quack, haha!

]
So you're trying to discuss about how many people will be dead through a scenario, methinks? If so...;

SCENARIO #1

DAY #1 = 1 DOCTOR/MAFIA/WEREWOLF LYNCHED
NIGHT #1 = BOTH QUACK ATTACKS EACH OTHER, MAFIA/WEREWOLF TARGETS RANDOM PLAYERS, DOCTORS PROTECTS SCUMS
DAY #2 = 2 DEAD QUACKS, 2 DEAD DOCTORS, 1 PERSON LYNCHED

If this happens, 6/12 people would be already dead before Night 2. [But this is a lul scenario]

Quack are town.

Just dangerous, scary town who eat other townies.

[GreyICE]

well, there are 4 mafia, 12 people total? if he isn't counting himself cause he's mafia as was suggested, that leaves 3 mafia, and 11 people. you know, cause he wasn't counting himself. 3/11. are we clear?

I guess so.
I tend to have bad English readings, despite it was my First Language..

Unless it was Vietnamese.

But then again, if he isn't Mafia (or Werewolf, please don't forget this fact, people), that'd leave us with 4 scums out of 10 people.
More easier for scum to win, I guess.

Don, your partner is way too obvious.

[GreyICE]

In terms of Grey's plan, I'm not sure what the advantage of it is supposed to be. That it guarantees more people will be targetted by night actions i.e. less likely to have five people target the same person? I'm really no good at setup speculation.

Tajo I love the Bella hate, why are you voting for Tragedy instead?

Unvote. Vote: Bella.

Tragedy is scummier as she has more posts (trying to appear active).

...


Okay, scums:

Tajo
?

DJ
Tragedy

[GreyICE]

In terms of Grey's plan, I'm not sure what the advantage of it is supposed to be. That it guarantees more people will be targetted by night actions i.e. less likely to have five people target the same person? I'm really no good at setup speculation.

Nope

Advantage is:

"Player Y: I target X"

X dies

"Oh I must be Quack!"

Second quack:
"We must both be quacks!"

Okay, kill each other. Oh look, one died, was a quack. One lived.

LYNCH SCUM

Rinse, repeat.

[GreyICE]

Entirely correct.

The point is to create more mechanical land mines for the scum at night. The last mechanics heavy game I was in we were at 4:3:1 when I replaced in.

We lynched scum three days straight, and a successful vig shot won the game.

Why? We played the night game as well as the day game, on two different levels. The scum was winning the day game, but totally lost the night game.

[GreyICE]

Nah, I only do confirmed town/confirmed scum in endgame scenarios. In complex games.

Believe it or not, I actually strongly prefer scumhunting, but we have 33% scum and 2 doctors who only kill town and don't know it, any mechanical trickery we have going gives us a better shot.

[GreyICE]

Balls I need to find time for this mess.

Bella is town, stop yelling at her twits.

Tajo is so obvious he's screaming it.

[GreyICE]

Ok, Bella is getting neutral status as for last post.

Hiraki is town.

Tragedy needs rope. Inmediately.

Greyice what exactly is your problem with me?

Pretty much every post you make. Your ISO is one long string of nothing.

[GreyICE]

Given scum is 1/3rd of the town, most likely.

[GreyICE]

Super sorry for not being here guys.

Hate to do this but I think I'm gonna have to let Bella slide for now. Tragedy is just too scummy. Very little scumhunting and when she does attempt to scumhunt, it comes off more as attempting to fling mud than genuinesly find scum.

Unvote. Vote: Tragedy.

Heh. That solves

your

alignment.

[GreyICE]

And looks like no one is going to lynch scum DJ today

Vote: Dry-fit

Very sorry to do this guys, but he's just not town. At all.

[GreyICE]

GreyIce: you seem to be implying that Tragedy is town, and Dry is scum. Any reasons why?

Stretching.

In a two scum team game the presence of a scummy attack does not indicate the victim is town, merely not on the same scumteam.

[GreyICE]

So are you saying they are both scummy? If so, why dry over tragedy? What "scummy attack" are you referencing?

No I actually think Tragedy is town. But that doesn't really matter here, because the problem is Dry Fit. You are trying to push me into defending Tragedy = town for a scum read on Dry-fit. Which might be logical in a normal game, but is illogical here. There is no either-or.

In terms of Grey's plan, I'm not sure what the advantage of it is supposed to be. That it guarantees more people will be targetted by night actions i.e. less likely to have five people target the same person? I'm really no good at setup speculation.

Tajo I love the Bella hate, why are you voting for Tragedy instead?

Unvote. Vote: Bella.

Also, defense of Tragedy by dry-fit is noted.

So saying Bella is summier than Tragedy = defending Tragedy?

@DF: Why the sudden Bella hate hop? Why the disappearance?

Bella's lack of giving opinions has been bothering me for a while now. I was hoping that by voting her I could put her under some pressure and get a reaction. Not sure what it means that she didn't respond to my vote at all. As for "disappearing" I had a lot to do over the weekend. My activity should be good for the rest of the week.

I love how TheWayItEnds shows up right after being called out by Shark.

Later today I should be able to read through Quack multiball Pt. 1 and try to figure out Bella/give more input on Grey's plan.

Super sorry for not being here guys.

Hate to do this but I think I'm gonna have to let Bella slide for now. Tragedy is just too scummy. Very little scumhunting and when she does attempt to scumhunt, it comes off more as attempting to fling mud than genuinesly find scum.

Unvote. Vote: Tragedy.

His input was 'lets not talk about Grey's plan and get to night actions.' The vote hop was bad. The vote

Why? He probably found QM1, like he said.

Town lynched scum. 3 days in a row. Day 1, day 2, day 3. Eliminated an entire scum team with the day 2 lynch

AND WAS IN MYLO DAY 4.

Three scum lynches, ideally spaced to take out the team, and the town was IN MYLO. In other words, one mislynch lost the game in QM pt. 1. ONE MISLYNCH. The town can't lose the night game here, because the night game can turn heavily against the town.


The advantages of my plan:

1) WIFOM OPPORTUNITIES:

Normally towns have much less information than scum, and many more people. In this circumstance, the scum have barely more information than the town. They know:

1) The alignment of one other person
2) The target of one night kill

Collectively, there are:
4 Night Kills
6 Doctor Protects

So they know about 10% of the actions taken in the thread, and one person's alignment.

So doesn't giving them more like 50% of the actions give them more information?

NO.

Because each townie controls as many night actions as a scumteam! Since there are more town night actions than scum night actions, the faster we identify who the quacks are (and make them stop killing town randomly) and the more information we have to plan our actions, the more we know.

The scumteam is at an incredible disadvantage with the claiming. As I said, look at DDD from the last game. I died overnight because I was quacked.

He claimed 'not to bother protecting me' because of 'the huge dogpile on night 1.'

Now imagine that night 2 he claimed to protect me... and park quacked me. He would have claimed doctor protect on a dead target with two identified quacks. That makes him scum. In other words, the towniest player in the game could have been caught by a screwed up night action.


So, I want everyone after this to vote if they think my plan is good or not. Then we will decide how we separate the lists. The method will be pseudo-random.

[GreyICE]

Hmm, I see that my plan is generally unopposed. I'm going to suggest how to create the lists next, and then people will claim.

And why? I'm quite happy with this SharkFinn idea.

[GreyICE]

Look at Sharkfinn's ISO please before I'm forced to make a wall that will increase the size of my E-Penis.

aha. aha. aha. That's too funny. Can I be your Viagra? I'd like to see where you think Im scum.

Get ready to die.

All pictures like that should not be from Naruto.

But should just be a charging Starlight Breaker.

That is all.

[GreyICE]

Next person to post after this will after this will pick two people.

One of them will pick a number from 1-4
One will pick a number from 1-3

Reasoning will be explained later.

[GreyICE]

no that was tragedy, she picked.

[GreyICE]

Spoiler: GAME RESULTS INSIDE, SPOILER-TAGGED POST-GAME BY MOD

5 People, column 3, row 1, we leave out the overlap.

GreyICE
SharkFinn
Nocmen
TWIE
Dry-Fit

Claim:

unless I change this before twilight, I will be doctoring Hiraki.

[GreyICE]

Nah, I'm fine with the list having 4. It ain't a popularity contest, and it ain't gonna have nominates. Last game it was the most town player alive in LyLo who was scum. I want the list to be totally random, except for quacks. Otherwise it runs the risk of being one more scum tool.

To win the day game we have to scumhunt. To win the night game we have to identify and isolate quacks, and prevent kills or send them on to scum.

[GreyICE]

For tomorrow I'll probably use a nominated equation mod number of candidates and seed with vote count timestamps (minutes) but I was lazy today

[GreyICE]

Now I have to do some scumhunting since I've been lazy for the last few days. :p

[GreyICE]

And you know who is still scum?

Vote:Don_Johnson

[GreyICE]

Deadline is April 4th?

[GreyICE]

dj has been scum, oh, since start of game. Dry-Fit wasn't good, but dj scum has been an evolving disaster in this thread. Evidence and reasoning exist.

[GreyICE]

Ah but it's so much funnier to see your reactions. Besides, you are a good

town

player. Which means that your case on Tragedy is...

Tragedy is looking like a good bet for scum.

I don't see the Bella hate. We should lynch between hiraki and tragedy.

unvote, vote hiraki

That puts them each at 2. I think everyone should move to one or the other. Unless you really want Bella, but I just don't see it.

Uh...

unvote, vote: dry-fit

i actually like the tragedy lynch better, but i find myself trusting the members of the dry wagon much more atm. this evens them at 4 a piece.

Um...

i didn't say you were "obvious scum". overall, you, hiraki, and lane seem like VI to me, imo that means you read like you're scum regardless of your alignment. i have no meta on any of you, so it is hard for me to compare to anything else(i generally don't do neta, i find it unreliable). in any case, the three of you stick out as most lynchable on day 1 because of that. your wagon, on the other hand, does not seem like a trustworthy bunch, so i hesitate to vote you.

taj is gut scum read, twie may actually fit into the VI category, dh is tarting to look scummy to me, and dry has that "scum playing safe" feel. on the other hand, bella hasn't done anything overtly scummy at this point, greyice is either scum playing extremely well or town with a plan, and shark is mellow for me. i'd rather be with peeps i trust. if i had a dayvig i'd have already shot taj. i think one of you or dry is scum and that is why this lynch seems to be difficult. i'm leaning dry, with dh as possible partner, but the fact that neither you, hiraki, lane, or nocmen has moved to one of the lead wagons kind of puts the spotlight on all of you when one of these lynches goes down. i was voting taj way back when, and i think that ship has sailed, so if you get the dry case, then join our wagon. what we need now is greyice to follow through on this plan.

Well... that's a case I suppose. Tragedy seems very lynchable, which is a good reason to lynch her, nevermind what the alignment is...

unvote, vote: Tragedy

i believe thats L-2. will the other 4 players claim their targets, then we lynch trag.

Well!

I think my "math" case was far more of a case than you ever bothered to give the 'obv-lynch' tragedy.

I do remember you being very good as town. This is very bad.

Very, very bad.

[GreyICE]

And in case anyone is wondering, my record time for lynching someone?

45 minutes.

On day 2.

From thread opens, to lynch, that's how long it took. I made a post, 45 minutes later, wagon done.

I'm very surprised we're locked into two not-great candidates at this turn. Well... not really

[GreyICE]

greyice, did you read my post before starting yours?

A little bit.

The case was there when I made my post, I just wanted to see if he would actually commit the huge hypocrisy of screaming at me for not making a good case when he's never made a good case on tragedy-scum. If he'd just rolled with the vote, I might of reevaluated. Then again, I might not, because he's been voting for someone he doesn't have a strong conviction will flip scum.

But that's moot. Why?

He did.

Way back at start of day, Hiraki RVS made us pick between two people. I voted back at him because "CHOICES." Well it's a hell of a lot more serious now, and my choice remains the same - we're being sold a mindset that doesn't exist. All it takes is seven posts with seven votes in the next four days for a wagon to complete.

And I like this one a LOT.

[GreyICE]

Not really. My plan is to leverage the day game against the night game and visa versa. "Locking out" scum candidates on the basis of the fact that they are on a random list or are doctored by unconfirmed town on a random list (and to be clear - people can be confirmed town in this setup by doctoring a confirmed quack target and having the quacked victim live if the victim is confirmed town themselves - really one of the few ways - and confirmed town should never be included) is heavily anti-town.

The purpose is to simply lock some night actions in during the day, then examine the results during the next day and consider them. The scum can of course have one of their members doctor a town target and then lynch that target to 'unlock' their action claims. That faces several problems - the first, that their partner has to attack the person that the other scum 'finds townie' enough to doctor, the second that the 2nd scum has to push the wagon all on their lonesome (the first scum is locked into thinking their intended target is townie, or reclaiming before nightfall - one negates what they're trying to accomplish, one looks bad when member 1 doesn't really have reasons that their doctor target is town enough to protect). And then there's the added complication that if they choose someone scummy enough to mislynch to unlock a member, they might actually be picking a person from the other scumteam - which means that they could face suspicion simply from attempting to claim a protect to save their partner from the other team's night kill - completely unjustified, in this case, but still potentially enough to get them lynched for the 'wrong reasons.'

In short these claims are simply a series of land mines scumteams have to walk around, that will also enable us to quickly identify quacks. Since the remainder of the town I judge as possibly protecting claimed protect targets, but possibly not, this simply ensures

- A reasonably even spread of protects with some overlap, but minimal
- A landmine for fakeclaiming scum
- Force the scum to shoot into 'less townie' targets, thus raising the potential of hitting lurking members of other scumteams
- WIFOM for their own fakeclaims and who to choose

It is not intended to limit our lynch options.

[GreyICE]

I answered. I simply do not see the purpose of crippling our day game with a measure meant to improve our chances in the night game. This is a setup that requires the town to win BOTH. One,

ONE SINGLE

mislynch in the last iteration was enough to sink the town. When it lynched in an ideal configuration too (Scum A1 day 1, Scum A2 day 2, scum B1 day 3). That is, to put it mildly, slightly absurd. The fact of the matter is, with four potential night kills, BOTH games have to be operating at 100% capacity. That's the fact that DDD grasped that I overlooked last time. We won the day game rather handily, and lost the night game in every way imaginable - by allowing Parkie to quack a second victim (thus reducing 4:1 with a confirmed-town VT to 3:1 MyLo), by reducing the chances of cross-kills to near-zero, by allowing far too many holes in what the scum could claim. It occurred to me when SharkFinn was discussing it in the post game, that he only got caught because he claimed to have targeted a dead man. A simple analysis of the consequences, and he could have been person number four on DDD, or on me, or on whoever who lived.

But that's not reason to cripple our day game, dj. Nothing gets in the way of our day game. We don't shackle the town to the whims of randomness (or pseudo-randomness), we shackle the scum to it.

@Lane - you forget, that tomorrow will be a popcorn claim. Any such gambits mean they have to come at the end of the popcorn claim, or risk being overclaimed. They shoot someone they target to become confirmed quack... and both quacks target someone during the night who is unprotected and suddenly we can do a quick circle quack to catch the scum, confirm a quack, and get rid of the killing roles in one go.

Gambits are hard to plan for when screwing up and losing a scumteam member means you're one shot from the other scumteam away from leaving the thread in defeat. The goal is to simply NOT LOSE the night game. We have to WIN in the day game.

[GreyICE]

Grey: you were voting to lynch dry-fit. You produced your list of random claimers. Dry was among them. Instead of pointing that out, you did NOTHING. You failed to address that issue completely. If you didn't want dry lynched then why were you voting? If you did want him lynched then why didn't you adjust your list to accommodate? Also, you have dodged my questions long enough. Link to the game you got a 45 min lynch in. Was it a scum lynch? And did the town win? Continually posting about your plan is a waste of space. The list is up, the targets are chosen and you seem content to let a claimant or target slip through the cracks if they get lynched. Try scumhunting or something. Stop flooding the thread with bs while ignoring questions that are posed to you. Sheesh. I'm going to bed.

Starts here, dj. Actually, both of the scum lynches were insanely fast:
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... &start=525

Both days in this game were insanely fast once the endgame broke:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2874694

That last one taught me the importance of locking down claims better than Quack multiball btw. Two of our scum were locked through impossible results.

As for adjusting my list to accommodate don, I notice something interesting. You think that I manipulated the list. Then you accuse me of... not manipulating the list.

Scumhunting? I've found scum

removed my quotes from gi's case for shits and giggles. please note the bolded. this after gi claims that "evidence and reasoning exist." even at its most basic translation, gi implies that there are at least two facets to the scumdj case. and yet they themselves produce only one. math. did i make a case on tragedy? no. you don't have to make a case in order to vote. thats not scummy. whats scummy, is saying "theres a case" when there isn't one. so yeah.

Don... the case is your case. You have none. You just want to lead the town into lynching people you don't like... aka people who aren't scum. And that's the basics of it.


My plan isn't random enough. It's too random. I manipulated the list. I didn't manipulate the list. We should vote for people not in the group, just randomly hop our votes. My vote hop to you was way too random.

Etc. etc. etc.

Flailing scum. Nothing in this is consistent in the least. You want to lynch Tragedy because you can't read her. No one reads as scum to you at the moment. Or maybe they're just always scummy!

You're setting yourself up for her town flip. Yeah, balls on this, you're obvscum.

[GreyICE]

Tragedy... Assuming Tajo is scum, which I don't think is 'super-probable' why does it stop you for voting for don_johnson?

Mafia scum can and will hunt werewolf scum, and visa-versa.

So why does it make you not want to vote don_johnson?

[GreyICE]

Given that town is trying to lynch one of four specific people in a group of eleven other people, and scum is trying to AVOID lynching ONE specific person in a group of eleven, I suggest that "unreasonable" and "scum" are very very different things this game.

[GreyICE]

lane and hiraki both have useless votes for today, btw, they need to remedy that ASAP.

Especially Lane, with all of the soft-defense of don_johnson without ever trying to scumhunt - that's just poor.

Hiraki his hyper-away, but he needs to get his vote somewhere useful.

[GreyICE]

Tragedy does not always read scummy.

Tragedy always reads like she doesn't care about votes on her, is highly impulsive, prone to changing her mind, does not explain her reasoning, extremely distrustful, and prone to making strong actions on weak reads.

This is very different.

[GreyICE]

Fine, like Dry-Fit thought dj was the most pro-town person here and the most worthy of doctor protection, and he doesn't even bother to defend him or complain about the lynch, he just updates us on his night action?

Unvote

Vote: Dry-Fit

What the fuck. I doubt they're on the same scumteam together, but that says jack shit. Best Mafia defense ever = "The werewolves are being twits over there!" And visa-versa, of course. We'll have this discussion on day 2, but dry-fit is appalling, and I can convince you townies tomorrow.

[GreyICE]

Lane deserves an extra special mention on any scum list

[GreyICE]

Please for the love of god, the case on him is simple:

1) He's done zero scumhunting
2) His 'most townie' person dj was about to be lynched and he's like "okay, I'll update my night action." Like... the person you think most likely to be town in the entire game, and you just go 'well, better change my night action?' Obvious fake was FAKE.
3) He's active lurking.

And then his defense is "well there's no case"

Well die.

[GreyICE]

Tajo's AtE is ultra weird.

In a game with like 6 real doctors and 2 fake doctors who think they're real doctors

He's certain who the NK is?

[GreyICE]

So yeah. You could. 2 NKs, 2 kinda-NKs, 6 protects, this game gets crazy.

[GreyICE]

Popcorn claim, discussion of dayplay fine, discussion of night actions bad.

Popcorn claimant #1 - Dr. DonJohnson

[GreyICE]

Doctors are not compulsive, and can no action too, correct?

[GreyICE]

@Tragedy: Do you think SharkFinn is town?

[GreyICE]

That's strange, who targeted Nocmen?

There's two of you.

Vote tragedy

Yours was intercepted I assume?

[GreyICE]

Dammit, you have no idea what I'm talking about, that or that was a nice cover.

unvote

Lets get the last claims, and then we start with the good stuff!

[GreyICE]

Okay, here's what we know:

Dr. Bella - Protected GreyICE
Dr. TheWayItEnds - Protected GreyICE
Dr. populartajo - Protected GreyICE

Dr. GreyICE - Protected Hiraki (Hiraki died)

Dr. SharkFinn - Protected lane
Dr. DemonHybrid - Protected TWIE
Dr. don_johnson - Protected Tragedy
Dr. Tragedy - Protected SharkFinn
Dr. lane0168 - Protected donjhonson

Quack Pool

GreyICE

I'm not taking any night actions anymore unless we really want that bad cop effect. And we'll have to vote it as a town.

If the second quack is one of the people who protected a single person then we have scum. That was one of the points of the spread.

And it was fairly successful. 5 players spread out and hit 5 targets, if the quack is outed as any one of them, we've found scum right there. For instance, if Tragedy = Quack, SharkFinn = scum.

Now the fun begins.

[GreyICE]

I have a rather silly and fun proposal that I think we should consider - secondary lynch mechanic.

Basically we choose a second person, and no doctors submit protects on that person. That person will then be unprotected, guarenteed.

The advantage is, with two scumteams, especially at 5:2:2, the other scumteam has to strongly consider shooting into the unprotected scumread.

[GreyICE]

It does seem very odd that people didn't try and figure out where their protections were going to overlap with the claims.

Lane, who are your scumreads? You seem to have one town read, and very little scumreads.

[GreyICE]

Again, Tragedy - Quacks don't kill scum.

If you're the quack, you'd never know based on targeting scum

[GreyICE]

@grey, who cares if don is still scum, why are you changing your vote this late?

i will be voting for populartajo or don... these are my suspects. i have not decided yet. right now, its just how i feel after reading 18 pages of the game. i will be ta

haha don accused grey that the grid wasn't random him, and than "accused" him of being random, CLEARLY don is flip flopping. on the fence scum grey you're tunnel vision is seriously disturbing me at this point. especially some of the things you say about don, just not being correct at all. turning his misunderstanding of where the grid came from into his flipping from accusing you that it wasn't random... you're really making some illogical cases here. and its hurting your reputation

Took you 26 minutes to move from voting Don or PopularTajo to starting to defend him.

Vote:lane0168

Nice read change.

[GreyICE]

As I said before, quacks get treated specially. As soon as there's three, we do a circle quack if we have the numbers, or we analyze behaviors.

I'd prefer, as a quack, that no claimed protects go onto me. Unclaimed doctors can do as they wish, but overall I'm much less valuable to the town than a full doctor, being essentially VT with weak cop ability.

I'm not sure why I'd stick myself in a death pool once three quacks show up if I was scum.

Okay, lets assume Lane is town. Where does that leave us?

Tajo is town
TWIE is town
Tragedy reads town to me

I don't feel like questioning those reads today. So...

SharkFinn
Don Johnson
Bella
DemonHybrid.

Huh. Which one is our best bet? ISO time

[GreyICE]

Really don? It's bad to be hung up on reasons?

Look, unexpected mind change

Vote: Don Johnson

I have no reasons! Lets lynch!

[GreyICE]

I read him as town because he has a consistently logical thought process, solid suspects, and does not try to feed me raw, unprocessed WIFOM.

You have done just about the exact opposite.

I want you dead as a doornail, because you're scum.

[GreyICE]

1 DemonHybrid
2 Tragedy
3 SharkFinn
4 don_johnson
5 lane
6 Bella
7 TWIE
8 PopularTajo

A, B, C, next 3 people pick a letter and a number from 1-10

[GreyICE]

As for lynching town over scum...

We assume the scum are better at catching scum than the town are.

I don't like that assumption, but I doubt DJ is town. This honestly feels like a load of WIFOM to me.

[GreyICE]

My strongest town reads:

DemonHybrid
Tragedy (she just seems such a special snowflake with the mechanics )

[GreyICE]

Also, for now:

Unvote

Need to do some ISOs.

[GreyICE]

Bella has done nothing today but theory speculation.

That's problem #1.

[GreyICE]

tragedy, you're not helping.

ice, too late. i'm calling bullshit. why is tajo not in your strong town reads anymore? he's gone from obvscum, to town due to his logic, to... what now? puh-leeze....

He's a town read. I do want to reevaluate and make sure I'm not missing someone.

[GreyICE]

Uh, numbers.

That's just a list of players up/down left-right from the first post.

I asked for numbers

[GreyICE]

Yep.

You've given me enough rope.

Vote: Don_Johnson

Shall we start to break down all the ways you've confirmed yourself scum?

[GreyICE]

1) The quack issue - At the moment, if I'm scum, both town quacks would have had to shoot other scum. Plus, as a confirmed non-doctor, as soon as two quacks were dead, I'd be immediately lynched. So who here thinks I was scummy enough coming out of day 1 that I had to run an improbable gambit that risked getting me lynched immediately? Anyone?

2) The lynch town plan - you self voted on the premise of 'lets lynch town. It's the best idea!' That lasted, oh, until you weren't next to lynch. Now you're back to wanting to lynch Tajo. Okay, so what happened to your plan? Nothing. It was a trick to get you away from being lynched. You never believed in it.

In short, you self voted only as a gambit to get away from the lynch, not because you believed lynching town was the best thing. You are now voting for someone you claim to believe is scum.

You die.

Ax^3+bx^2+Cx MOD2 will give us odds or evens. They'll claim.

C will be 2+4 I guess

x = the last digit of the minute count on the next vote count Crazy posts.

[GreyICE]

Yeah, you are 100% not town.

No doctor protects tonight? LOL

[GreyICE]

I can't stand this game.

We can't lynch a guy who says he wants to lynch town and any time we express suspicion of him self votes but as soon as the suspicion goes away starts to vote for people he thinks are scum.

What.
The.
Fuck.

[GreyICE]

I mean literally.

I cannot stand this.

I have no motivation to open this thread while he's still alive.

It's so fucking scummy there aren't words for how scummy it is.

[GreyICE]

I mean literally his defense is
"SELFVOTE WE SHOULD LYNCH TOWN"

"OH WAGON IS GONE I'LL GO BACK TO LOLSCUMHUNTING"

"WAGON IS BACK SELFVOTE"

"NO MORE WAGON LOLSCUMHUNT"

WHAT THE FUCK?

[GreyICE]

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS


I WANT HIM DEAD

[GreyICE]

Why isn't Don lynched yet.

This is so fucking stupid.

[GreyICE]

So I have to assume that GreyICE had targeted don_johnson since he believed that he was an actual quack?

Yeah, um, I was VASTLY tired of his nonsense after yesterday

Whatever, that was a pro-town move.

[GreyICE]

i protected tragedy.

next up:

thewayitends

HEY TRAGEDY

YOU IS CONFIRMED SCUM

[GreyICE]

kay

im thinking someone gets confirmed quack after these results, so lets claim actions.

town reads on everyone but Bella, but its LYLO so waiting for claims before voting.

Dude.... moderator confirmed scum.

We have FUN TIMES AHEAD.

[GreyICE]

I will protect Bella.

Nocmen claimed to be protecting Bella.

'bout a 5% chance Hiraki decided on Tragedy, based on his ISO.

[GreyICE]

He protected me? ?

Yep hun.

Outed mafia scum posting in the thread now.

Feel free to play hangman or whatever for the rest of the day

[GreyICE]

And now of course people see ANOTHER reason why I wanted to maximize the spread on day 1, in order to quickly isolate the quacks and get the MAXIMUM INFORMATION OUT OF THEM.

[GreyICE]

Hiraki was the only unclaimed protect from that night.

I feel it's worth gambling the game on the idea that of the 11 possible targets night 1 he didn't choose you, based on his ISO.

Okay, so protects tonight. I favor the maximum WIFOM approach. Obviously I'm nearing confirmed quack status, so I'm conf. town(ish). On the other hand, I'm conf. town VT, since I can never use my power again safely. Doctors are much better. And scum might not target me because shooting a doctor is much better and I'll probably be protected. So, WIFOM.

Anyway, lets look over Tragedy's ISO now.

[GreyICE]

Dr. GreyICE

(0)

Dr. Bella

(0)

Dr. populartajo

(0)

Dr. Tragedy

(0)

Dr. lane0168

(0)

Fishing for a Tragedy Partner...


Okay...

r

-can we pick people that havent talked yet?

-i also don't see reason to BW (bandwagon?) don_johnson

You can't bandwagon a person when he doesn't have enough good reasoning to do so, little one.

FOS: Lane

@lane: RVS = Random Voting Stage -> Votes people for no good reason -> Yeah.
...You should've started with Newbie Games..

Yeah, good ol' page fucking 2.

Lane = town, quell surprise. Next up.

[GreyICE]

Tajo is so obviously not Tragedy partner it hurts me.

[GreyICE]

Oh lawd

Hi Bella.

[GreyICE]

and this was the actions claimed before night
GreyICE = Hiraki
SharkFinn = lane
Nocmen = Bella
TWIE = GreyIce
Dry-Fit = donjhon

Hiraki and Nocmen died on the night.

So the only unknown night action is from hiraki who died without giving a claim.

After an iso day 1 I really raelly raelly raelllyyyyyyyy doubt Hiraki doctored Tragedy. (last post is "don is still town").

So, kay, Im ready for voting.

Why we're not voting:

Double lynch possibility.

Basically, it goes like this. We'll work on determining whose scum through good solid scumhunting. Then tonight, I'll quack em, and no doctors protect. If they're a mislynch, they'll die - but we'll still have two doctor protects on the loose. Assuming we get good town reads that assures us of having a good possibility of not having any town die except from the quack (who would be a mislynch if the entire remaining town can agree they're the lynch tomorrow) meaning we have a VERY good shot at winning LyLo (since we'll go in with one confirmed town and an entire day of debate).

If they're still alive when tomorrow starts, quack failed...

[GreyICE]

Oh yeah, and we should finish action claim, as semi-relevant as it might be.

[GreyICE]

let me get you (now with names edition)

we lynch Tragedy.

You quack Bella. Nobody else protects. 4 alive.

a) Bella dies. Scum nightkills. We enter tomorrow at 1 scum and 1 town alive. Fail.

b) Bella doesnt die. She is scum. Lynch. ???. Profit.

While I think scenario b is the most likely after isolating Tragedy, in case Bella is town, we lose.

Nooo.

No one protects Bella. Doctors protect elsewhere as needed.

A) Bella dies. Scum nightkill goes through. We lose
B) Bella dies. Scum nightkill is blocked. Tomorrow is LyLo
C) Bella lives. Scum.

[GreyICE]

This assumes it is Bella, of course. Need to check out Lane/Tragedy interactions. Unless you're mr. magical schoolbus, I REALLY don't think it's you.

[GreyICE]

Yeah, bella's never even talked to tragedy, both Lane and Tajo have long antagonistic conversations with her.

Damn it, where's Lane?

[GreyICE]

Bella - based on yesterday's interactions, you agree Tajo can't be scum with Tragedy?

[GreyICE]

Well I admit using our factional kill on don_johnson like we discussed to clear me was a good gambit.

And it was really nice of DemonHybrid to submit the kill on himself to hyper confirm DJ was killed by a quack.

[GreyICE]

I dunno. I want consensus from Lane/Bella on how they'll vote tomorrow.

Actually, how would you vote tomorrow after the tragedy lynch? I really am treating you as confirmed town here with Tragedy scum, it's just too unlikely for that to be a bus imho.

[GreyICE]

Meh I'll fully explain the plan after the game. There are facets that weren't pro-town to explain in thread because they gave scum ways around them (you just saw one, the 'doubling up' on targets to prevent quacks from identifying scum which didn't happen here), but yeah. I've been mulling it since the first quack multiball, so I was REALLY looking forward to implementing it.

Okay, well if Lain and Bella are on board then, my preferred course of action is just have {Lane+Bella} Protect you, you protect me, me quack bella. If Bella thinks it's Lane, then that course of action will 100% guarantee town win. If Lane thinks it's Bella, that course of action will 100% guarantee town win. If either wants to make a case on one of us, well...

Seriously, if you bussed Tragedy that hard, LOL. If Hiraki protected Tragedy... heh.

[GreyICE]

Nah, popscum kills me for the win. The thing about popscum is that that requires this all to be them double bussing:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9&start=75
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p2952705
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p2947661
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p2930148

That feels totally wrong.

[GreyICE]

Oh please
If you're town, townies die.
If you think Lane is the last scum, you have no problem dying to 100% guarantee a scum lynch.

[GreyICE]

Okay.

After a couple of rereads, Lane-Tragedy doesnt look like bussing at all. And Im willing to give GreyIce the win if he is scum, so.

Lets do this.

Vote: Tragedy.

Plan is GreyIce quacks Bella. Protections to wifomize scum. ???. Profit.

Protections = Bella/Lane on Tajo, Tajo on me. As long as it's not you Tajo (and I don't see how it is)

I don't even know how I'd be scum here. Mafia factional kill was used on werewolf, one of the remaining doctors would have to be ninja quack.

Vote:Tragedy

As for you, if you really interacted with your scumbuddy like that in a 2-team game where you have one teammate... good job.

[GreyICE]

So lessee.

It couldn't possibly ever be Tajo. I was proven Quack.

So LET'S PROTECT THE ONLY PERSON WHO IT COULD BE WHO WASN'T YOU?

That's why I had the night action plan in the first place. SO WE'D GET BOTH.

[GreyICE]

DISAPPOINT.

I FOUND SCUM.

BUT NO.

FFS. SHARK DID YOU KILL ME?

NO

GREY

YOU

UNFORGIVABLE.

YEAH YOU WERE MY STRONGEST TOWN READ. I WANTED YOU ALIVE LIKE HELL.

I WAS NOT HAPPY TO DISCOVER I WAS A DAMN QUACK.

Quacking DJ was 100% the right move. No regrets. Quacking bella would have WON US THE GAME 100% IF SHE COULD FOLLOW A FUCKING NIGHT ACTION PLAN

[GreyICE]

i still dont see how pop is so obviously town

That sort of fight with Tragedy? The back and forth where he very visibly waffles? Tragedy's passive/aggressive pushes into him?

He's trying to figure out her alignment, she's trying to get him mislynched. It was not POSSIBLE they were on the same scumteam.

[GreyICE]

Blah.

In case anyone is wondering as to why I did my night action plan:

1) This game is

VERY scum favored.

7:2:2 is considered balanced NIGHTLESS where the scum have zero kills. In contrast, this is 8:2:2 and the scum get kills. Additionally, quacks will ONLY hit town. While they're a net asset in many ways, this game is fast, furious, and heavily biased against town wins without significant crosskills.

2) Therefore, I wanted a night action plan that would distribute the protects as evenly as possible. This had the following assets:
- Force scum kills onto non-town looking members, or players that were possible mislynches
- Quickly identify quacks, and use them in the late game.
- Protect as many town assets as possible.

The risks of scum faking a quack play were miniscule. Quacks were unlikely targets of doctor protects, so scum looking for easy kills could hit quacks with virtual impunity. Also, faking quacks could be outed in a second. Imagine you claimed to protect someone, "quack killed" them, and they flipped scum? Oooooppppsssssss. That'd be an instant town victory. I didn't think it was at all possible that the scum would go for it, and I think the QTs would reveal they never tried it.

In general, I think it served its purpose. N1, one scum kill bounced, we identified one quack, and we lined up a scum lynch from another quack hitting scum.

That basically ensured the town got the game. D3, we had:
1 confirmed town (me)
1 confirmed scum (Tragedy)
1 town through obvious gameplay (Tajo)
2 ???????

The quack/doctor interaction would have ensure that we got essentially two lynches. That would have been an instant town victory.

Bella's decision not to doctor the obvious town player is totally inexplicable

[GreyICE]

I still didn't get how tajo was hte most obvious town player in the end anyways.
But he was town, and anyone would expect lane to obviously be scum if I were driving 'em.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5&start=25
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9&start=25

Your interactions with Tajo on these pages.

Almost

certainly

could not be scum on scum from how you two play.

Your vague sniping of Lane and the return and the virtual ignoring Bella could both be scum, and normally LyLo would have been a bitch, but we had an opportunity to lynch BOTH which would have guaranteed a win.

[GreyICE]

> First scum win
> First/Second Game to get hammered by scum buddy = Rage
> Scumbuddy did well
> I thought Lane > Tajo as an obvious town tell

Didn't matter who was "more town." Tajo could never be your scumbuddy.

Bella... Sigh. She played a lot like scum, and handed them the game.