Open 233: Ninja Mafia Boogaloo - Over!

[singersigner]

Hey guys, I'm almost caught up now, but I just finished 7 hours of band rehearsal, and now I'm getting some rest before another 4 hour rehearsal on a lovely Saturday morning. I'll post some thoughts tomorrow afternoon-ish. And hey, only one more scum to go, right?

Also, hey AGar, I promise this won't be a repeat of 974. <3

[singersigner]

I lived wow

I don't like this. Surprise almost always=fake. If it's not fake, then you're dumb for even posting this because who cares?

Also, something came up today that I've been dealing with since. I have notes/thoughts through half of the thread, etc and I'll be finishing those later to post tomorrow. Y'all are lovely for being patient.

AGar...oof...

[singersigner]

ATTN:

WoT coming, with links to post coming later, but not enough time right now. Cheers!

[singersigner]

Open 233: Ninja Mafia Boogaloo
THESE ARE THOUGHTS ON THINGS THAT STOOD OUT TO ME
INTERPRETATION TO FOLLOW IN MY VOTE
-Smashbro votes Zajnet in 127
-Immediately followed by Beefster in 130 and CA in 131 which would look scummy if they didn’t both flip town. Smashbro, however, hasn’t…succeeding in being opportunistic?
-SV post 136 opportunistic vote on Smashbro
-SC votes Zajnet in 152 for whimsical excuses
-Lots of scum skim “meta” talk that makes AGar’s 162 and Curiouskarmadog’s 167 QFT.
-Gammagooey votes enigma in 176 by just agreeing with “sexy explanations.”
-Zorblag votes tumescence in 197 for not being involved…looks like bussing

-Smashbro 205 posts a lot of fluff and keeps his vote on Zajnet for what seems to simply be joining wagons

-Tumescence 232 asks fluff newb scum questions

-AGar’s 246 talks about wagons, which I still don’t like, but whatevs, I know he just does it now
-AGar 259 insists on CA wagon (interpreting that as town)
-I agree with Gammagooey’s 264
-Beefsrer’s 267, 274, and 281 vaguely lines up with my suspicions of tumescence
-AGar’s and SC’s exchange in 290-293 is interesting…

-Tumescence asks to get replaced in 301, so maybe replacement will null suspicions

-Gammagooey’s 306 and 322 gives me a town vibe
-AGar’s 324-326 reaction comPLETEly makes sense
-Engima dug himself a whole in 330
--------looks like scum NKed him because he had an accurate read on Zorblag and could’ve been paranoid he was a cop?
-I like curiouskarmadog’s 339 reiteration of vote on Chrono instead of just letting people figure it out themselves
-I don’t like SC’s 341
-I agree with PE’s 344

-Not really getting drmyshotty’s 349…

-I don’t understand the first half of AGar’s 360, but at least his 361 explains his vote

-Smashbro’s 368 feels opportunistic only because there’s a better case on CA at the time

-Beefster 375 votes drmyshotty for pressure/policy lynch=no bueno
-AGar’s 380 QFT…though, from our last game together, I don’t think I’ll ever enjoy seeing you use the word “misrep” ever again, lol.
-AGar’s 382 and 392 holds too much confidence in having found scum; I know hesitance is typically a scum-tell, but I seriously hate the overly-cocky…
-curiouskarmadog’s 385 and SC’s 386 QFT
-CA’s defence of himself in 390 is not good

-drmyshotty’s 393 doesn’t give any content after having been asked a couple times to do so…

-Prox’s 410 is obnoxious and not helpful
-The following posts are just as worthless and obnoxious, but not just by him

-drmyshotty’s 425…not saying you do or don’t? why not?

-SV makes a good point about drmyshotty’s 428

-Wagon falls apart after curiouskarmadog’s claim
-Taking careful note of curiouskarmadog’s 437
-Zorblag’s 444 is ironic

-smashbro’s 455 is too defensive, looks like a plight to save his scum buddy

-/off-topic, really liking the mod (471/472)
-No on AGar’s 478

-smashbro’s 479 isn’t good

-Zorblag’s 480 votes drmyshotty…looking like a bus to distance himself since he hasn’t done much posting of his own
-silverbullet’s 491 is…weird…
-511, oh Prox…
-AGar’s 518 is very, very true. Les sigh…

-Equinox’s WoT 519 is so much QFT I can barely keep it all in, but it DOES confirm my suspicions on smashbro and drmyshotty

-lolz at silverbullet’s 531
-Not understanding why Sotty7 was the N3K, Equinox clearly had better town/scum-hunting skillz
-Equinox’s 549 QFT

-WOAH, silverbullet/Equinox exchange in 550-558=no bueno, and AGAIN in 581-584…

-silverbullet’s 586 is AtE

-Equinox’s 589 QFT

-silverbullet’s 597=scum

-silverbullet’s 601=scum

-AGar/silverbullt exchange in 600-606 is curious, AGar, you have issues with the word “misrep,” don’t you, lol
-Everything else is…special…

I originally thought I was going to vote drmyshotty, but he’s got enough pressure on him at the moment. Silverbullet’s latest posts in D4 have been very questionable, and I don’t like it. VOTE: silverbullet999

[singersigner]

-Singer
how does post 597 and 601 equal scum. Its great that you point this out but please enlighten me as to the reasons.
Your speculation on night kills is also a little disturbing to me and I find it ironic that you feel that Equi should have been killed... and then hey guess what the night kill for today is.
I also still don't like how night got extended for you... a push on deadline? I can understand... but night? hmmmm

1. Hey yeah, I know I didn't give a lot of actual nitpicking with my post, so bascially what I understood from those two posts in particular is that in 597 your defense reeks of AtE, and then in 601 the post itself isn't terribly scummy, but then you post a lot of fluff (along with not understanding where the AtE is coming from), that's making me think you're not actually capable of defending yourself, no offense.
2. I'm not really understanding what you're trying to get at. You're kind of hinting at a whole lot of WIFOM there, and that's unsettling. If you really thought about it, you'd realize that huge townies and scum-hunters are the biggest threats to scum. What peeked my interest was why Equinox wasn't seen as a threat until the second day he was here.
3. You'd have to take that up with the mod. I specifically asked him not to prolong the deadline for me, so if you think you're going to use that as a case against me, think again.

@Gammagooey...WoT is Wall of Text. I mean, I know mine wasn't as impressive as other walls with quote tags and such, but as I was under pressure to make my analysis, I felt like giving the post numbers instead of just quoting everything would save everyone a lot of eyesores reading through all the quotes, etc.

@drmyshotty...I'm not an idiot. If I see you posting your defense/reasons for questions I've posed to you, in response to someone else, I'll see it. You don't have to post it twice just to reiterate your weak reasonings. Btw, that's really not a good reason for posting "woah, surprise." You can think it in your head, but my question is why you felt the need to

post your surprise for the rest of us to see

.

Also, I know I said I'd fill in the posts links when I had the time, but I'm getting the feel that anyone who's actually going to do any reading/scum-hunting has already sifted through and done that themselves. I'd rather not waste my time with people who aren't going to follow up on that, if that's ok...

[singersigner]

Look at my other games I am NK'd ALOT!

1. You're either NKed, you're lynched, or you're mislynched.
2. You've been around less than I have, how many games could you have possibly been in that would constitute as "A LOT"?
3. Again, WHY DOES THAT MATTER?

2. You

're

the one commenting on night actions and seeing if they are reasonable or not... that's WIFOMY in my eyes in and of itself.. thus disturbing.

1. I fixed your grammar.
2. It's WIFOM if you think it's indicative of alignment, and then start arguing as such.

[singersigner]

Singer- Can you explain this in a little more detail? I still don't see why Zor would bus right after a maf death with other suspicious people around (Zorblag’s 480 votes drmyshotty…looking like a bus to distance himself since he hasn’t done much posting of his own)

Well, mostly it has to do with how suspicious I see drmyshotty being, and the fact that Zorblag flipped scum (though that wasn't known then, it's simply hindsight). Since there are two mafia factions, it was my theory that Chrono was in one faction, and Zorblag and drmy might be in another. I don't think there needs to be a reason like that to bus. From what I've seen, bussing is a gut instinct, so my gut instinct was that might've been what it was. I'm not focusing on him right now, though, mostly for reasons being that I think silverbullet is scummier.

[singersigner]

singersigner: Her predecessors don't give me a strong read either way, but she's been a pretty strong force. The one nag I have—she's solid town, but this is what is keeping her out of the #1 slot—is that, in post #677, she says that "[y]ou're either NKed, you're lynched, or you're mislynched." Not only do I feel her differentiation between a lynch and a mislynch in this context unnatural, but she fails to bring up the possibility of a modkill, which has happened twice this game. (There are also other ways to get killed in Mafia games, but nothing else is possible, so I feel it a waste of time to get on her about that.)

The speculation about how you die was regarding what we as a town (as a whole, with mafia infiltrating town) have the power to do. Modkills out of it. Does that make more sense?

[singersigner]

Tunnel vision isn't bad if done correctly. It's confirmation bias that's bad...which may or may not be the case here.

In any case, I've been reading up on what's going on, and like what I see from the VC analysis (again, be careful with that C.B.), and how people are reacting to it. I'll be gone for the rest of the day, and will be studying like mad for something I know nothing about when I get back, so I wouldn't expect much from me until tomorrow at least.

[singersigner]

I guess what I find most disturbing is that Kage has had little pressure and smash even smaller still.

Actually, if you looked at my somewhat primitive analysis when I just came in, Smash was definitely up there on my suspicious list. The three of you, smash, drmy, and you. Of the three, I went with you, but that doesn't mean that I think smash is any less suspicious.

if you truly believed I was scum yesterday, why did you derail the wagon on to confid and why is what happened yesterday starting to occur again?

I hope this is a generic "you," since I did no such thing...

PREVIEW EDIT: Oof, I've have more to say about that later...

[singersigner]

/off topic...should be studying...

It forces scum to either gamble on a false-claim without any real communication with their partner beforehand, and it will set everyone into a position from here on out. I have a list of what we should see without any false-claims in each scenario, I can guess pretty well if we see anything, and it could theoretically weed out some people from the mislynch pool. Any objections?

The only flaw I can see in this is that if the last two are in two separate factions, forcing them to false-claim wouldn't really throw them off that much. Oh, and if by chance you're mafia, you're really just setting yourself up to not fail.

And don't count my opinion. It's not much of one anyway, lol. Like I said in our last game together, I think you're smart, so I would trust your analysis of what happens if we mass-claim (assuming you're not mafia).

[singersigner]

My understanding is that he's suggesting AGar claim first (and since he volunteered to do so, that shouldn't really be a problem), and then AGar will say "you, claim now." That person will claim, and do the same thing to someone else. That way it's more or less being dictated who will claim in what order, and scum can't just come in with a preemptive claim that they've thought up. They have to risk CCing if their false-claim is already claimed.

The first half of what I said is basically what popcorning it is, and the second half is why I think it's more effective than having everyone claim at their own rate.

[singersigner]

I'm VT. This is my only post for today. Sorry, guys. Go, go gadget: SB.

[singersigner]

So you'd rather we blindly vote No Lynch? OK...

I'd rather scum blindly kill tonight. It's not blindly no-lynching for the reasons stated before. Could you explain why stating our suspicions today would be more beneficial to

town

, as opposed to stating them tomorrow?

[singersigner]

I will say this before the day is up. From the information I can confirm (yes, I know this is only to myself, since there's no way for you to be 100% sure I'm town), I can almost guarantee there is one scum on each wagon. Take that and make of it what you will if I'm not here tomorrow. VOTE: no lynch

[singersigner]

Sup. So here's the thing. We aren't confident that the two flipped scum were on the same team, right? So the unfortunate thing about the situation we're in, is that we can't bank on too many connections, right? We don't know for sure that Zorblag was Chrono's partner, so it might not have been a bus on purpose, which means we can't overlook any possibility, ESPECIALLY in LyLo.

Gamma...I never got any particular scum vibes from Kage. My top suspects from the very beginning of my replacement were silver, drmy, and smash. I thought I'd originally vote drmy or smash (mostly smash), but silverbell just ultimately seemed scummier in the end. Why do you think drmy is so town?

[singersigner]

Gawddamnit.

Sorry, I've been playing this game with the mindset that there are two scum factions that wouldn't know who each other are (I must've gotten that impression from the mod's role PM examples/post )...so I didn't want to look at it from the angle of "to bus or not to bus." But since now I have to rearrange the way I'm looking at it...I don't feel like Zorblag would care if he had to bus or not. He's experienced enough to have learned that scum play the game like any other townie (if they good enough), which means if there's an legitimate opportunity to gain town creds by bussing a partner because his partner was stupid enough to play scummy, make a scum-slep, etc or whatever...he'd be the one to do it, and do it well.

I've never played with drmy before, but I heard drmy's just a VI, too (looking into his games, I'd agree with it)...so that might be why I got such scummy reads on him in the first place.

I hate VIs.

[singersigner]

drmy...NO. We're in LYLO. If you vote, and you're not scum, the other two jump on the wagon before anyone figures out what's going on, lynch gamma, and we lose. Take your vote off NOW.

[singersigner]

I'll explain later why I'm waiting for tomorrow to cast my vote.

[singersigner]

Or you and drmy could be scum together...

[singersigner]

Man this game is dead.

@Kage- It's probably obvious but I didn't bother putting out a possibility that I know to be false since I know I'm town.

Aye. I just wanted to make sure that possibility didn't go unnoticed by those of us that aren't 100% sure that you're town.

I'm also going to wait until tomorrow to vote.

[singersigner]

I'm going with one of my original gut reads. *crosses fingers*
VOTE: Smashbro_of_the_SSS

Also, Gamma, you forgot that I could've quickvoted in there, too. So in the case that we're right on this one today, and that maybe I'm the one to die tonight, my theory is that Kage and I are town (the fact that I'm town isn't the theory part...but you get what I mean). And drmy didn't want to vote his partner...OR you're bussing your partner to get town points and go after drmy tomorrow (which I'd like to think is not the case). There. I said it. It's out there. Good luck, town.

[singersigner]

lol, well, I just figured I'd throw that out there. If you're scum, you've played a really good game. Kage, comeon and hammer already; I'm ready to get this game over with...in a *hopefully* positive manner...

[singersigner]

ok, so, awesome, I'm dead, should've mentioned I was V/LA, but still.

Honestly, I don't think your lack of contribution had much to do with why people voted for you in the end. You had all the time in the world to defend yourself from our suspicions before you stopped contributing (which I'm assuming was the start of your V/LA status). Deadline is tonight. Even if you, by some miraculous feat, are town, not much was going to change.

BUT. It does explain why you wouldn't be able to hop on gamma's wagon...kind of only confirms my suspicions about the quick hammer. The only exception being Gamma, who would know a quick hammer wouldn't happen. Gawddamnitall if that's true...

[singersigner]

I am town guys. I purpusely messed up my vote to see if I could draw out a scum quick hammer

Well that was dumb. I don't know why you're still trying to defend yourself now, though. Game's over. Can't say I didn't see my impending death coming, though. That's why I wanted to get everything out there. I hope this made up for last time, AGar?

[singersigner]

I think it's over. (Awaiting lynch scene.)

But teh Mafias Win.

We knew, as we didn't roll roleblocker, that there was going to be a Cop OR a Doc, not both, and Ninja meant Either Tracker+Watcher v Ninja, or Vanillas v Ninja. So really, the latter being the case, Troll-Ninja's inactivity Modkill (FFFUUUUU) set us back by less than I expected it might have.

Glad that the cop claimed and fell early, only taking down me, rather than multiple scum. As we knew there was no Doc, thus freekill.

Just as an FYI to anyone who plays with me ever again. DON'T reveal before the end game scene has been posted. That really bothers me for two reasons, 1. The only guarantee is with the mod, and 2. It totally ruins the flavor.

But now that all has been said and done, I'm assuming it was Gamma?

[singersigner]

I'm still kicking myself for not making a case against Gamma when I had the chance. Even though I mostly trusted he was town, it would've been beneficial to have cases for all suspicions I had. Toward the end I started realizing how I couldn't just write him off as town (voting first didn't bode well for you Gamma, that's part of the reason why I became so suspicious), especially since I knew shotty was...not the best townie, lol. Sorry guys, I really tried. <3

[singersigner]

Not one, not two, but several people found you anti-town enough to lynch you on Day 5.

only four people found me anti town enough to lynch me. Of the four people voting me 1 is scum. Shotty hopped on because he's a vi and didn't want himself to die and I self-hammered because day 6 would only continue the tunneling. Agar voted me because he didn't want the day to end with a no-lynch (at least that's what I got from it) and of all the people only 1 (singer) genuinely voted me because she thought I was scum.

Sooooorry!!! I had three reads, and I really thought I was going to go for a Smash lynch, but the clever little bastard evaded me for one day when, through the rest of my read, I felt stronger scum vibes from you. <3 !!!